A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[Snapchap]

There will have to be a comfortable
majority which includes reformed Unionists.
A 50+1 on the other hand  could trigger a smaller Unionist entity in Antrim, Down and  North Armagh.

There is going to be one shot at a referendum and it has to be done right.

I don't know what part of this you're not grasping. A comfortabke majority would be nice, But there's doesn't "have" to be one.

I don't see you suggesting that a 51% majority in favour of the union could lead to Tyrone, Derry, Fermanagh and S. Armagh leaving the precious union.

What will happen is what has been agreed in the GFA by cross community consent, and is now legally binding.

[seafoid]

The GFA doesn't say anything about 50%.
Anyway I think the pro referendum side need to get more Catholics on board. The status quo suits a lot of people who vote. Bringing non voters into the tent is also important. There is a lot of work to do.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Re partition isn't going to happen  Belfast city as we have seen all this week with the council vote has too big a nationalist population these days. Where would you draw the new border? - around Carrick, Larne and Ballymena? It's a non starter. I did laugh at bin lorry yesterday on the Nolan show moaning about the city boundaries as the reason Belfast has fallen. The boundaries were fine when unionism carved them out to create their Castlereagh fifedom

[AustinPowers]

66%??

It's the level for a stable result with no grumbling after. Brexit won with 51% and it was a mess.

Its also a percentage requirement that would be contrary to the GFA. The days of a unionist's vote being worth more than that of a nationalist, are over.

Don't get me wrong, I dont belive any SoS will call a referendum until a comfortable majority is clear, but if the result happens to be 50%+1 in favour of Irish Unity, then Irish Unity it is.

The Brits won't stand for 50+1. The North of Ireland is too fragile for that. It would be a field day for the UDA and friends.

As I said, I dont believe they will call a border poll unless they are confident of a comfortable majority for unity, but even then, if the referendum result WAS just 51% in favour of reunification, the brits could do precisely nothing to stop it. The 66% figure is one you've pulled from the clouds. This was settled in 1998. 50%+1 is all that is required.

50+1 is not enough for a United Ireland. The unionists could demand a second referendum. There has to be a clear majority for a United Ireland.

In an ideal world yes 60% would be great but to say 50% +1 is not enough is nothing more than a unionist veto. Basically you are saying unionist votes are worth more than nationalist votes. A supermajority which you seem to be advocating is completely undemocratic and is blatant shifting of the goal posts. I fully expect more and more of this from unionism as a UI looks more and more likely.

A succesful united Ireland referendum will require support from middle class unionists. The challenge is to bring them on board. There will have to be economic arguments to swing it. A united Ireland in itself won't be enough. NI will probably have to collapse first.

Define collapse.

some would say it collapsed decades ago. It's hardly  a  thriving place , in terms of  infrastructure, economy , services and most of all, politically.

[Snapchap]

The GFA doesn't say anything about 50%.
Anyway I think the pro referendum side need to get more Catholics on board. The status quo suits a lot of people who vote. Bringing non voters into the tent is also important. There is a lot of work to do.

It says "a majority". Legally, and every other way, that means 50%+1.

"At present, such referendums require a simple majority of 50% plus one."(BBC)

"50% plus one may be enough on paper and in law, and I don't dispute that for a moment." (Leo Varakar)

The Good Friday Agreement (GFA) is very clear on the threshold for a referendum on Irish unity passing....If 50%+1 is a sufficient threshold to keep NI in the UK, then it is also the threshold by which a united Ireland can be created. (DCU Conflict Institute)

On the constitutional status of Northern Ireland, the Agreement is clear that the decision is binary, decided by 50% plus one. (The Constitution Unit)

The framework for holding a referendum in Northern Ireland is set down in the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. It stipulates that a majority of 50% + 1 would be required to change the status quo. (University College London)

[Rossfan]

GFA states regarding changing status of 6 Cos - "a majority of people in Northern Ireland".

[Pub Bore]

GFA states regarding changing status of 6 Cos - "a majority of people in Northern Ireland".

It's a majority of people voting in a poll.

[tiempo]

GFA states regarding changing status of 6 Cos - "a majority of people in Northern Ireland".

It's a majority of people voting in a poll.

A majority of people who post legitimate ballots

[Armagh18]

GFA states regarding changing status of 6 Cos - "a majority of people in Northern Ireland".

It's a majority of people voting in a poll.

A majority of people who post legitimate ballots

Will the Unionists do a #spoilyourvote?

[seafoid]

"It would therefore be a serious breach of a core provision of the GFA, passed overwhelmingly by referenda north and south, if a higher threshold was to be introduced, or if a majority was defined as being of all registered voters, whether they voted or not. "

 "It comes after NI Minister Steve Baker reportedly said a border poll should need the support of a "super-majority".

At present, such referendums require a simple majority of 50% plus one.

Mr Baker cited his experience in the UK's Brexit referendum and said he regretted now it did not require the support of 60% of those who voted."


The UI has to be done properly. NI has a history of political violence. If that kicks off again there won't be support in the South.
The challenge is to get moderate Unionists in the camp. That means offering them better than what they have. The UI can't be half arsed.

[tiempo]

NI is the spawn of war crimes, political violence, call it what you will
NI is not the victim, its part of the perpetrator campaign

[Last Man]

Nothing doing unless the C.S. Or high level actors within decide it's in their interest. Our elected advocates might well blow and bluster but they just do as they are bid. They have their own families to rear and bills to pay and let's face it what would most of them do if they weren't in this business.
The more I watch the goings on the more I am disengaged from the whole idea of a UI. It has become little more than a romantic notion and a helpful distraction. Very sad considering the lives lost chasing it.
Never thought I'd see the day but I'm a committed vote spoiler now.

[Milltown Row2]

Nothing doing unless the C.S. Or high level actors within decide it's in their interest. Our elected advocates might well blow and bluster but they just do as they are bid. They have their own families to rear and bills to pay and let's face it what would most of them do if they weren't in this business.
The more I watch the goings on the more I am disengaged from the whole idea of a UI. It has become little more than a romantic notion and a helpful distraction. Very sad considering the lives lost chasing it.
Never thought I'd see the day but I'm a committed vote spoiler now.

I understand where you are coming from and while there are distractions in terms of the personal actions of what happens during and after I'd still be voting for a UI

But... the preparation beforehand which will lay out the detail of the 'switch' will be the devil of it.

I'd say those on pip will happily stay with what they've got

[trueblue1234]

"It would therefore be a serious breach of a core provision of the GFA, passed overwhelmingly by referenda north and south, if a higher threshold was to be introduced, or if a majority was defined as being of all registered voters, whether they voted or not. "

 "It comes after NI Minister Steve Baker reportedly said a border poll should need the support of a "super-majority".

At present, such referendums require a simple majority of 50% plus one.

Mr Baker cited his experience in the UK's Brexit referendum and said he regretted now it did not require the support of 60% of those who voted."


The UI has to be done properly. NI has a history of political violence. If that kicks off again there won't be support in the South.
The challenge is to get moderate Unionists in the camp. That means offering them better than what they have. The UI can't be half arsed.

We could achieve 70% support and there would still be violence. There is no possible way that there won't be a degree of violence when it happens. That should not be a reason for stopping it.

[Milltown Row2]

"It would therefore be a serious breach of a core provision of the GFA, passed overwhelmingly by referenda north and south, if a higher threshold was to be introduced, or if a majority was defined as being of all registered voters, whether they voted or not. "

 "It comes after NI Minister Steve Baker reportedly said a border poll should need the support of a "super-majority".

At present, such referendums require a simple majority of 50% plus one.

Mr Baker cited his experience in the UK's Brexit referendum and said he regretted now it did not require the support of 60% of those who voted."


The UI has to be done properly. NI has a history of political violence. If that kicks off again there won't be support in the South.
The challenge is to get moderate Unionists in the camp. That means offering them better than what they have. The UI can't be half arsed.

We could achieve 70% support and there would still be violence. There is no possible way that there won't be a degree of violence when it happens. That should not be a reason for stopping it.

You lose a child over it you may think differently