Author Topic: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.  (Read 152945 times)

BennyCake

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2400 on: December 12, 2018, 05:59:33 PM »
Heard someone on the radio earlier saying that anyone talking about a border poll should learn the lessons of the Brexit poll - make a decent plan before asking people to vote!
Correct, I have not seen any plan from either SF or SDLP that would get me to vote for a UI, and I consider myself a republican, small r. I'd abstain.

In any UI poll, both of those parties should take a backseat for the following reasons 1) them shouting  from rooftops would alienate the 15% - 20% of soft unionists needed to carry a vote - Mary Lou and co will not be able to help themselves however 2) neither party has really contributed to the factors that has made the Irish economy and culture attractive to Unionists, so it should not be their plan or vision that is on offer

I think that this is correct. The poll will be won on the votes of the Alliance/ soft unionists. Hard republicans and nationalists will vote for a UI in any case.

If we have learned the lessons of old Unionist triumphalism, it shouldn't be seen as a victory or defeat by either side but rather a coming together of people that will probably take a generation to normalise. I hope that there is not a rush to claim credit for such an eventuality when it does happen, because the reality is that the DUP will have done more to bring it about than either of the main nationalist parties.

Really? Nearly 100 years of partition and this place is billions of light years away from being normal.


Therealdonald

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2402 on: December 19, 2018, 06:33:14 PM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

You're the scrooge of all things Republican and National michaelg. When it inevitably happens and it will (in your lifetime), can I have your home address to post a hard copy of this link so I can watch you eat it?

michaelg

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2403 on: December 19, 2018, 06:44:12 PM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

You're the scrooge of all things Republican and National michaelg. When it inevitably happens and it will (in your lifetime), can I have your home address to post a hard copy of this link so I can watch you eat it?
Whatever floats your boat, big lad!

red hander

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2404 on: December 19, 2018, 07:09:01 PM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

Gudgin is hardly an independent, non-partisan voice. He's like the wee Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke (ooh err, missus). Basically ignores the impact of Brexit and the DUP's arousal of the nationalist electorate
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 07:11:42 PM by red hander »

michaelg

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2405 on: December 19, 2018, 08:39:56 PM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

Gudgin is hardly an independent, non-partisan voice. He's like the wee Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke (ooh err, missus). Basically ignores the impact of Brexit and the DUP's arousal of the nationalist electorate
I would agree with you, even though we will need to wait see the impact of Brexit as it plays out.  He does still raise a few interesting points.

red hander

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2406 on: December 19, 2018, 09:35:39 PM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

Gudgin is hardly an independent, non-partisan voice. He's like the wee Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke (ooh err, missus). Basically ignores the impact of Brexit and the DUP's arousal of the nationalist electorate
I would agree with you, even though we will need to wait see the impact of Brexit as it plays out.  He does still raise a few interesting points.

What's the oul adage? There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics  ;)
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 11:12:50 PM by red hander »

lenny

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2407 on: December 19, 2018, 09:39:18 PM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

Gudgin is hardly an independent, non-partisan voice. He's like the wee Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke (ooh err, missus). Basically ignores the impact of Brexit and the DUP's arousal of the nationalist electorate

You talking about emma little pengelly again?

Dougal Maguire

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2408 on: December 19, 2018, 11:10:24 PM »
Has anyone ever wondered why Unionist politicians are so opposed to a border poll?  It's because the books have ben cooked. The official number crunching for the last 4 Census in NI was carried out by the same team of experts, all of whom had a unionist bias.  One of them was Jim Allaister's  sister. The headline results of the census before last, which was the one that was expected to show a significant closure in the Nationalist/Unionist gap but in the end this didn't materialise, were leaked to the Sunday Indo before they became public. This quelled any fear that the Nationalists were soon to become the majority. Having said that, the only thing that was likely to create the environment for a UI was some sort of seismic issue. Brexit is that issue.
Careful now

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2409 on: December 19, 2018, 11:33:12 PM »
Has anyone ever wondered why Unionist politicians are so opposed to a border poll?  It's because the books have ben cooked. The official number crunching for the last 4 Census in NI was carried out by the same team of experts, all of whom had a unionist bias.  One of them was Jim Allaister's  sister. The headline results of the census before last, which was the one that was expected to show a significant closure in the Nationalist/Unionist gap but in the end this didn't materialise, were leaked to the Sunday Indo before they became public. This quelled any fear that the Nationalists were soon to become the majority. Having said that, the only thing that was likely to create the environment for a UI was some sort of seismic issue. Brexit is that issue.

I very much doubt that the census has been cooked in any major way, although the presentation of the data may well have been selective. However, alarm bells did not ring among unionists because nationalist apathy meant falling turnouts and some drift to Alliance, so the number of nationalist seats did not rise quickly. Brexit has gone some  way to addressing this issue. 

« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 11:35:21 PM by armaghniac »
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

naka

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2410 on: December 20, 2018, 05:53:28 AM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html
Tbf michaelg the fact that this is being written when unionism should be gearing up for their big 100th anniversary bash is seismic.
A nationalist majority is imminent, you only have to be involved in business   over the last 30 years to see the demographic changes.
A United ireland may not arrive in my lifetime but a poll will occur in the next 20/30 years and then the race is run.
Nationalism has to thank the DUP for its help and assistance in pushing the idea of unification forward by at least a generation.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2018, 09:47:11 AM by naka »

Franko

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2411 on: December 20, 2018, 08:09:38 AM »
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/dr-graham-gudgin-a-united-ireland-is-far-from-inevitable-and-here-is-why-37639295.html

He does make some interesting points.

There is a bitterness to his writing here though, that belies a lack of objectivity and which is only just barely veiled.

"While the south relies on its rip-off tax-haven status"


There are also lines such as that below, which is just a complete lie.

"the UK provides public spending in a way that is fully sustainable."   ;D ;D



4/10.

« Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 08:12:50 AM by Franko »

haranguerer

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2412 on: December 20, 2018, 08:43:57 AM »
Hes a sc**bag. Can't hide his bigotry. Trying to pass off any article saying UI is coming as being the premise of 'southern writers', and that article is full of thinly veiled racism. He pontificates about McWilliams loosely assuming catholicism = nationalism, but his article is based on protestantism = unionism.

And as for this...

Nor does the north's dependence on public spending indicate a weak private sector, as McWilliams simplistically suggests. Rather, it reflects the way the UK works.

The high birth-rates of the past created an excess of labour in Northern Ireland, which a sedately growing UK economic union was not designed to accommodate. Instead, public services (and hence jobs) were provided for a growing population.


I'm no economist, but I don't think you have to be to identify that this is utter bullshit. A high birth rate (given the article is drawing comparisons with the south, is he saying the birth rate in the north was higher than that of the south?) = more consumers; a boon to a healthy private sector. To listen to him you'd think the UK was socialist.

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2413 on: December 20, 2018, 10:35:07 AM »
Hes a sc**bag. Can't hide his bigotry. Trying to pass off any article saying UI is coming as being the premise of 'southern writers', and that article is full of thinly veiled racism. He pontificates about McWilliams loosely assuming catholicism = nationalism, but his article is based on protestantism = unionism.

You get a lot of this, not every Catholic is nationalist and every person that isn't going to a Catholic church is definitely a unionist.
The reality is that there are hard core Unionists, a large wedge of people who aren't much committed to the union but who couldn't be bothered with constitutional change, and nationalists some of whom are atheists.
Wha Brexit does is make the continuation of NI problematic, which makes the middle bloc consider their options.

A follow up from a slightly biased source here
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/eilis-ohanlon-brexit-is-blamed-for-raising-the-unionist-bogey-of-irish-unity-but-what-if-leaving-the-eu-is-not-that-bad-or-whisper-it-what-if-its-actually-a-success-37642661.html
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rossfan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #2414 on: December 20, 2018, 11:13:45 AM »
"We" need a majority of Scots to shed their inferiority complex and become an Independent State.
This will greatly assist the All Ireland process which had already been greatly assisted by DUPUDA's trying to reestablish 1 Party rule in 2016 and their pro Brexit madness.
1 BIG CUP and 1 Cupeen so far....