Author Topic: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.  (Read 75767 times)

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1185 on: June 03, 2017, 12:49:41 PM »
If the DUP had any cop on they would start looking at a better economic model for NI with less waste of human potential. There doesn't necessarily have to be a united Ireland but there does have to be change

Why on earth would they do this. Having a big subsidy is preventing discussion of a UI.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Milltown Row2

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1186 on: June 03, 2017, 02:02:24 PM »
Jesus, it sounds grim up North
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seafoid

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1187 on: June 03, 2017, 02:07:51 PM »
If the DUP had any cop on they would start looking at a better economic model for NI with less waste of human potential. There doesn't necessarily have to be a united Ireland but there does have to be change

Why on earth would they do this. Having a big subsidy is preventing discussion of a UI.
If the Tories win and they go through with no deal there will be food riots in England
The 9bn assumes business as usual.
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Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1188 on: June 10, 2017, 10:07:36 AM »
Update on current statistics:

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Not much credibility in calling for a border poll based the last general election results with the unionist vote reawakened by the previous result in the assembly election.  It would just be a form of agitation.

A border poll would result in an increased turnout but it would not significantly change the situation because as many sleeping unionists would turnout, particularly in the loyalist community, as non-voting nationalists.

In particular, the figures above would assume that all SDLP voters would opt for a UI but this would be far from a certainty.

There is a warning for SF that a resurgent unionist vote could make a big difference to the current assembly position of the party if the DUP were to ask their partners in the UK government for a new assembly ballot.  The SF vote has maxed out in the last election as they were able to tap into SDLP vote and sleeping nationalist voters in South Down, FST and North Belfast.



Note that the SDLP vote held up even though they lost their seats but the APNI had a bad election as their unionist voters shifted allegiance. 
« Last Edit: June 10, 2017, 10:17:45 AM by Owen Brannigan »

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1189 on: June 10, 2017, 10:11:46 AM »
If they are voting for a Nationalist party the it is reasonable to have a poll on that basis. But nobody will vote for a UI unless there is a plan, including many SF voters who are wedded to public expenditure not freeing the country.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rossfan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1190 on: June 10, 2017, 11:21:52 AM »
No point sitting back waiting for the demographic to kick in. A lot of those will become apolitical as they become bored if all they hear is SF chanting "Border poll now" ad infinitum........

A plan and a vision please.
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JPGJOHNNYG

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1191 on: June 10, 2017, 02:27:48 PM »
Update on current statistics:

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Not much credibility in calling for a border poll based the last general election results with the unionist vote reawakened by the previous result in the assembly election.  It would just be a form of agitation.

A border poll would result in an increased turnout but it would not significantly change the situation because as many sleeping unionists would turnout, particularly in the loyalist community, as non-voting nationalists.

In particular, the figures above would assume that all SDLP voters would opt for a UI but this would be far from a certainty.

There is a warning for SF that a resurgent unionist vote could make a big difference to the current assembly position of the party if the DUP were to ask their partners in the UK government for a new assembly ballot.  The SF vote has maxed out in the last election as they were able to tap into SDLP vote and sleeping nationalist voters in South Down, FST and North Belfast.



Note that the SDLP vote held up even though they lost their seats but the APNI had a bad election as their unionist voters shifted allegiance.

The pbp did get votes in the 2017 GE not many but all the same so those figures need double checking

Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1192 on: June 10, 2017, 08:43:32 PM »
Update on current statistics:

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Not much credibility in calling for a border poll based the last general election results with the unionist vote reawakened by the previous result in the assembly election.  It would just be a form of agitation.

A border poll would result in an increased turnout but it would not significantly change the situation because as many sleeping unionists would turnout, particularly in the loyalist community, as non-voting nationalists.

In particular, the figures above would assume that all SDLP voters would opt for a UI but this would be far from a certainty.

There is a warning for SF that a resurgent unionist vote could make a big difference to the current assembly position of the party if the DUP were to ask their partners in the UK government for a new assembly ballot.  The SF vote has maxed out in the last election as they were able to tap into SDLP vote and sleeping nationalist voters in South Down, FST and North Belfast.



Note that the SDLP vote held up even though they lost their seats but the APNI had a bad election as their unionist voters shifted allegiance.

The pbp did get votes in the 2017 GE not many but all the same so those figures need double checking

Go right ahead.  As Hardy requested referencing on another thread.  I used Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election,_2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election,_2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/northern_ireland

So, I welcome your double checking.  I took the Others column from BBC as Sylvia Hermon. Feel free to calculate the PBP results and recalculate the current difference between Nationalist/Republican and Unionist votes.  It will still result in demanding a border poll now as nothing more than agitation for its own sake.


seafoid

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1193 on: June 10, 2017, 09:10:53 PM »
It doesn't matter what happens this year. The demographics do not favour the Unionists. Nothing can be guaranteed by them.
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1194 on: June 10, 2017, 09:29:35 PM »
It doesn't matter what happens this year. The demographics do not favour the Unionists. Nothing can be guaranteed by them.

That's not news but the demographic effect will take many years to affect the voting dynamic and until it can be shown that there is a real possibility that a border poll would produce a result in favour of a UI, there is no point in calling for a border poll.  Even with the changing demographic at the lower ages, the voting population change in terms of religion will take many years because the population is growing older as people live longer.  In addition, religious affiliation will not determine the result of a border poll.  The key statistic from above will be the number making up the middle ground and the number of those currently voting SDLP who are actually nationalists who really want a UI.

Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1195 on: June 17, 2017, 01:52:17 PM »
Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2016 survey was carried out between 12th September 2016 and 22nd December 2016.

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70% of SDLP voters said they were not in favour of a united Ireland.

Support for a united Ireland amongst Alliance voters was 21% in 2016, compared with 12% in 2015 and 8% in 2014.

« Last Edit: June 17, 2017, 01:56:15 PM by Owen Brannigan »

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1196 on: June 17, 2017, 02:50:57 PM »
These surveys are meaningless. No rational person can be in favour of a United Ireland without a plan. People vote for the SDLP to have such a plan produced.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1197 on: June 17, 2017, 05:37:39 PM »
These surveys are meaningless. No rational person can be in favour of a United Ireland without a plan. People vote for the SDLP to have such a plan produced.
Adlai Stevenson was Democratic candidate in the 1952 presidential election. He was told he would have the support of all thinking people. "Yes, but I need a majority".
"you can try and intimidate us, but f**k youse, we're going to win an All-Ireland anyway"

T Fearon

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1198 on: June 17, 2017, 06:44:08 PM »
It also said 23% of Sinn Fein voters would not vote in favour of a United Ireland.

There is no plan for a Unitec Ireland,because it is not desired North or South.So the only viable options are settle down under British Rule or develop a plan for Northern Irish Independence

Avondhu star

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1199 on: June 17, 2017, 06:48:26 PM »
It also said 23% of Sinn Fein voters would not vote in favour of a United Ireland.

There is no plan for a Unitec Ireland,because it is not desired North or South.So the only viable options are settle down under British Rule or develop a plan for Northern Irish Independence
Why not a confederation with Scotland? With the chip each of them have on their shoulder the situation would be evenly balanced.
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