The developing UK constitutional crisis and the status of Northern Ireland

[seafoid]

I think this subject will be very interesting to follow over the next few years.
The Tories are giving in to UKIP over Europe. Scotland recently voted 45% against staying in the Union.
The topic of Europe has the potential to tear the Conservative party apart. Any change to the highly centralised UK system will expose the fact that Northern Ireland can't fund itself. Lots of forces at work that threaten the status quo.

Paul Gillespie gives it a good go here

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/the-united-kingdom-faces-a-dual-sovereignty-problem-over-the-next-decade-1.1976170

"The United Kingdom faces a dual sovereignty problem over the next decade

Opinion: Government and peoples must choose how to deliver on promise of deeper devolution to Scotland and whether to withdraw from the EU

Paul Gillespie

Oct 25, 2014, 00:01


The United Kingdom faces a dual sovereignty problem over the next decade as its government and peoples choose how to deliver on the promise to give deeper devolution to Scotland and whether to withdraw from the European Union. These internal and external decisions about the powers and levels of governing will have major consequences for Ireland North and South.

The British constitutional tradition takes sovereignty extremely seriously. It is conventionally defined there as the final and absolute political authority, with none existing elsewhere. This doctrine is built into the idea of the crown in parliament and has driven the development of the British state in its imperial and post-imperial phases. It is exceedingly difficult to escape from, even if in practice sovereignty has been shared internally through devolving powers and externally divided with other states.

Scotland and the EU sharply pose this question. The Scottish referendum campaign on independence hardened public support for all powers of taxation and spending to be held there, with only foreign affairs and defence exercised through Westminster. The vow made by the three pro-union parties acknowledged that and promised to deliver it by January next. But the parties disagree on whether and how to do this, allowing the Scottish nationalists to cry betrayal and open up the independence issue again.

The decisive 55-45 per cent No outcome is therefore conditional on more powers being transferred. And as the vow implies, such a transfer must be constitutionally entrenched if it to convince the Scots it will not be later withdrawn. But that involves departing from the absolute sovereignty doctrine by making a transition towards a federal one involving a combination of shared rule with self-rule.

It is far from clear that Britain's constitutional culture is capable of this transformation, whether doctrinally or in terms of its party system based on first-past-the-post voting for Westminster elections. This is despite the flexibility with which these norms were varied for others – former colonies and devolved administrations. The historical merits of muddling through have reached their limits here; more radical change is required. A British public opinion which wants the union to survive in a looser format is actually well ahead of its political class on the issue.

This internal sovereignty question is intimately linked to the external one concerning EU membership, on which the Conservatives under David Cameron are pledged to hold a referendum in 2017. Since they are more likely to win next year's general election than Labour the vote will be held then – and Labour may also agree to hold it too, even without the EU treaty change they now say is necessary first.

The United Kingdom would probably not survive withdrawal from the EU because this would be decided by an English majority over-ruling presumed preferences to stay in the EU by Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland voters. That would reopen the Scottish question, and probably result in a Yes to independence.

An important Ipsos-Mori opinion poll this week showed that British opinion has shifted in favour of staying in the EU by a margin of 56 to 26 per cent, the highest once since 1991. Analysts say this is directly in response to the surge of support for the United Kingdom Independence Party, involving a rejection of its narrow English nationalism and xenophobia.

But much depends on the political, diplomatic and economic contexts in which a referendum is held. The Conservatives are desperately competing with Ukip for marginal seats and on immigration. Cameron is bidding up the terms of EU renegotiation to undeliverable levels, which will affect the government's credibility. And although the EU is low on current lists of the most important issues facing the UK, immigration lies second after the National Health Service and is closely linked.

If muddling through does not promise to resolve the dual sovereignty problem, the UK faces a choice between federalising or breaking up. Its peoples may prefer the former but its leaders may not be able to deliver that.

Ireland faces major consequences either way, for which it is ill-prepared. A federalising process would expose Northern Ireland's 40 per cent annual deficit between local taxation and public spending to unfavourable attention elsewhere in the UK – as would Scottish independence.

Both options would change the North's constitutional power-sharing structure, involving the Irish Government in fresh negotiations. At some stage Northerners would have to ask whether they might get a better federal deal from a Dublin in the EU than from a London outside it.
   "

[T Fearon]

Doubt if a referendum to stay in the EU would get a yes vote in the North,as unionists are in favour of withdrawal generally (UK withdrawal) ,as are Sinn Fein incidentally,and UKIP have one MLA a few councillors and are getting a trickle of defectors from unionist parties.

Unfortunately economic arguments will carry no weight with unionists,as a commentator said recently if Dublin was Dubai Unionists would still oppose a United Ireland on ideological grounds

[Myles Na G.]

Doubt if a referendum to stay in the EU would get a yes vote in the North,as unionists are in favour of withdrawal generally (UK withdrawal) ,as are Sinn Fein incidentally,and UKIP have one MLA a few councillors and are getting a trickle of defectors from unionist parties.

Unfortunately economic arguments will carry no weight with unionists,as a commentator said recently if Dublin was Dubai Unionists would still oppose a United Ireland on ideological grounds

Agree. Wouldn't matter if economic studies proved that northerners would be financially better off in an all Ireland arrangement to the tune of £500 per week. Unionists / loyalists would still vote against on the grounds they wouldn't get to fly their fleg, play their anthem, follow OWC while singing '10 German Bombers...' etc

[seafoid]

Doubt if a referendum to stay in the EU would get a yes vote in the North,as unionists are in favour of withdrawal generally (UK withdrawal) ,as are Sinn Fein incidentally,and UKIP have one MLA a few councillors and are getting a trickle of defectors from unionist parties.

Unfortunately economic arguments will carry no weight with unionists,as a commentator said recently if Dublin was Dubai Unionists would still oppose a United Ireland on ideological grounds

Depends on what John Bull says. If England demands more powers in the UK everything will come into question including the money that goes to OWC. What does England get in return  ?

[lynchbhoy]

Doubt if a referendum to stay in the EU would get a yes vote in the North,as unionists are in favour of withdrawal generally (UK withdrawal) ,as are Sinn Fein incidentally,and UKIP have one MLA a few councillors and are getting a trickle of defectors from unionist parties.

Unfortunately economic arguments will carry no weight with unionists,as a commentator said recently if Dublin was Dubai Unionists would still oppose a United Ireland on ideological grounds

Depends on what John Bull says. If England demands more powers in the UK everything will come into question including the money that goes to OWC. What does England get in return  ?

I'd agree with Myles and Tony up to a point!

But as you say if it will hit these unionists in the pocket - then you can guarantee they will initially be torn and eventually agree to reunification
- same goes for the nationalist/catholic irish who want to retain the status quo as they are currently financially better off than they would be in a reunited Ireland

A few perks and services removed ( gov jobs back to England) and this all changes!!!

[armaghniac]

There is an large gap between revenue and expenditure in NI, but the expenditure part won't be buoyant in the future. Ireland has now a smaller deficit than the UK, and they are presently going in opposite directions, so the Irish deficit might end up half of the % of GDP as the UK in 2015. During the week we say headlines that 5% of 6 county streetlights were out of order because they were not being repaired and UU and QUB were proposing to cut student numbers, as if less education was the way forward.

Unfortunately SF are opposing realistic government in the 6 counties because they oppose realistic government in the 26 and the unionists are happy to turn any subject into a basis for getting more marches. The present water codology marks the end of such things in the south, it may not be so positive in the North.

[T Fearon]

I heard it said when I was a child that unionists would eat grass before agreeing to the reunification of Ireland,as I've moved through the various phases of my life I have seen no evidence to the contrary.

[Saffrongael]

Why are the Unionists & SF looking for an EU withdrawal as most of them are sucking at the tit of EU PEACE funding etc, surely that would come to an end ?

[T Fearon]

Unionists claim that the EU is costing their British Government money (net in terms of excess contributions over EU allocations) and impacting upon the UK's sovereignty , Sinn Finn same sovereignty argument just substitute Irish for British.

[lynchbhoy]

I heard it said when I was a child that unionists would eat grass before agreeing to the reunification of Ireland,as I've moved through the various phases of my life I have seen no evidence to the contrary.

The same unionists/loyalists that would eat grass before crossing the border etc

Yet the Celtic tiger and the lure of better money soon saw them cast aside those principles!!!

[Jell 0 Biafra]

Grass is edible, once cooked.

[T Fearon]

Lynch boy,I seem to recall one unionist councillor joining Fianna Fáil during the boom times,there was no stampede or even debate. I doubt if the Dublin government would be prepared to make the changes to accommodate them anyway.

Patrick Murphy raised a very good question in Irish News today regarding purpose of Dublin Govt in current talks process (ie the same government that files the North in its Foreign Affairs dept). He reckoned their involvement is merely a psychological crutch for nationalists.

[lynchbhoy]

Lynch boy,I seem to recall one unionist councillor joining Fianna Fáil during the boom times,there was no stampede or even debate. I doubt if the Dublin government would be prepared to make the changes to accommodate them anyway.

Patrick Murphy raised a very good question in Irish News today regarding purpose of Dublin Govt in current talks process (ie the same government that files the North in its Foreign Affairs dept). He reckoned their involvement is merely a psychological crutch for nationalists.

The influx of unionists/loyalists throughout industry and employment was eye opening.
I encountered many and it was fun spotting them ( though not difficult).

You would find that the Irish give would fall over themselves to appease unionists.

A secondary reason for this would be alliances forged between parties to ensure they become the main political power in the country.
Eg I foresee fg and unionists having a pact that will deliver them power to form the gov for all Ireland

Your guy Patrick Murphy is naive - the reunification will occur due to referendum most likely caused by Brit gov pulling out all financial advantages and gov jobs in the north to push voters into accepting the better financial circumstances in reunification !
The political parties here have an interest in the north as it will hold a huge balance of power - just as it did in westminister during the 'troubles'/war 

IMO he is talking through his hole if he thinks it's a psychological crutch. Why would anybody waste time just for the sake of it! That makes no sense - it certainly isn't based on realism.
My opinions obv but power and money are usually the underlying motives for everything !

[T Fearon]

Why then is the North classified under Foreign Affairs in Dublin? What has the Irish govt contributed to any Northern talks? What can it do that SF or SDLP can't? It certainly hasn't helped Northern nationalists and if anything just facilitates agreement to retain partition by peaceful means, not ending it.

[lynchbhoy]

Why then is the North classified under Foreign Affairs in Dublin? What has the Irish govt contributed to any Northern talks? What can it do that SF or SDLP can't? It certainly hasn't helped Northern nationalists and if anything just facilitates agreement to retain partition by peaceful means, not ending it.

How can it do anything differently Tony?
It's inda kinny that's the Taoiseach not Vladimir Putin!!

At the 1921 constitutional agreement with the British gov, we took back ownership of 26 counties and accepted the remaining 6 were to stay under ownership of Brit gov. The men of 1921 did intend getting these 6 back too and there was disagreement over it hence civil war.

In time many have got on with lives and the 6 counties is out of sight and out if mind.
So it isn't a priority down here for many - though since gfa many will say that they would like reunification as long as it wasn't a financial burden on the state.

Your points tony are from your own subjectivity and not the legally constitutional view or the view of southern people.
The view will change as Britain weakens and can no longer afford to keep the six counties. They will have to pay our gov a long annual levy to take them back.
Jobs will have to be created to facilitate reunification also - not the makey uppy mini quangos that make up half the jobs up there!