The developing UK constitutional crisis and the status of Northern Ireland

[seafoid]

The sovereignty of NI is mostly an irrelevance to the day to day issues but very important to the identity people that live in it.

The most likely scenario is some sort of joint sovereignty where both the UK and Dublin will have joint control and NI will operate as some sort of autonomous region within that.

Basically what we have now but with Tricolours flying alongside the Union Jacks or more than likely.. nothing flying at all. There will also be increased involement from Dublin and decreased involvement from London

Whatever above transient arrangements this kind of thing is exactly what we don't want to end up with, a 6 counties as a backward dependency with everyone still fighting among themselves over flegs.

The days of NI as dependency are numbered. Increased autonomy will mean NI will have to shape up. It actually wont be as difficult as people imagine, with increased powers we will be able to make these decisions to steer the economy in the correct direction.
The 60/40 discrepancy often quoted is a little exaggerated as it includes an over inflated UK defence budget.

The biggest issue in NI is economies of scale, there aren't enough citizens to make services viable, if we aren't part of the UK then we need to have some sort of relationship with the ROI. As I stated before this is slowly happening, most evidently recently in the health sector.

"The Troubles" (what a lovely euphemism) and the collapse of the traditional NI industries like shipbuilding really hammered the economy up there. Antrim and Down were very advanced economically 100 years ago compared to the South but that is no longer the case.

I went to Donaghdee a while ago and in one of the pubs there's a photo of the prom there in 1913 and it looked really swanky , with well dressed people. It must have been a wealthy commuter town for Belfast.

Anyway I was observing the people on the prom the day I was there and most of the men were wearing football jerseys which must have been a come down from the days of their great grandparents. When they had all the economic advantages of course they could make a premium over the potato munching masses down south but now the parameters are different.   

The South has more people and thus more economic variety. So you see things like all Ireland tourism initiatives eg the Blue Book which are run out of the south and open to Northern businesses.

Once the South got going the North was going to be vulnerable to competition and the logic of capitalism. The whole collapse of the political system and the descent into tribal violence was a self inflicted disaster that NI did not need but it was probably inevitable given the way the statelet was created.

I think more economic co-operation will be the trend.

And then you have the Protestant brain drain. NI needs to keep those people but how can it do that ?

A pity Jamie and Willie wouldn't join the brain drain.

There is no Protestant brain drain. Studies have shown that just as many catholics leave for Britain as protestants for work and University. The far higher Catholic student population in Northern Ireland reflects the demographic reality and also highlights the fact that Protestants particularly working class Protestant boys are seriously underachieving. The Unionist politicians dont care though more important that they can use these people as foot soldiers for protest than try and help with their education

There is if the Protestant population as a whole is not as educated as the Catholic population. You can't stop people going away for economic reasons- what counts is the capacity of those people who stay . And in the case of the Protestant community the ones who stay are less educated than their catholic equivalents. And that plays into how Unionist politics work. As well as the quality of the information in the Newsletter.
Northern Ireland was set up to cater for a privileged Protestant population with guaranteed jobs in strong industries. Now the jobs and the industries are gone and the educational outcomes  required to equip the people for the new situation are not good enough.

And this will also over time influence how English people see NI.

[armaghniac]

There is if the Protestant population as a whole is not as educated as the Catholic population. You can't stop people going away for economic reasons- what counts is the capacity of those people who stay . And in the case of the Protestant community the ones who stay are less educated than their catholic equivalents.

This trend has particular implications. You will have a situation where people like health professional etc are mostly from a Catholic background and then you'll have fair employment issues arising because the number of Catholic speech therapists exceeds their ratio in the general community.

[OakleafCounty]

Over the next few decades demographic shifts will take care of itself and providing the economic situation is better than today there will be a UI. No question about it. But talking to death about it at the present time, especially politicians talking about it is a waste of time.

Subjects like this and flags, parades and even the past are being used by politicians to cover up the fact that they are completely and utterly fleecing the public. The health trusts are on their backs never mind their knees. Yesterday the Western Trust announced cuts of £7million meaning that frontline staff and patients are going to suffer big time!

Yesterday the mother of my son who's a careworker for the trust was told that she's losing her temorary contract because of these cuts while Stormonts ministers are been driven around by chauffeurs and employ their mates as advisors while claiming up to £80,000 in expenses on top of their £43,100 mla salary and £37, 801 ministers allowance!!

Last year mla's claimed a total of £7.5million in expenses alone while yesterday a health trust had to announce cuts of £7million. As well as that there are roughly 600 councillors floating about the north getting an allowance of £14,000.

[LCohen]

Sorry but what is the evidence that protestants in NI are less well educated than catholics?

There are differences, for the most part, in the educational establishments and in the 2 systems behind them and therefore it is certainly possible that there would as a consequence be differences in the educational establishments. There is very definitly a trend (real and serious for all society) of educational under-achievement within certain aspects of the protestant community (characterised by either geographic and/or "class" distinctions) but that is not the same as saying that "protestants are less well educated".

There is also this issue of the disproportionate grip that the evangelical, sabbatarian, new earth, creationist, pyscho-babbble spreading band have on political unionism. Don't be fooled by this. Protestants should not be judged by the idiots that unionism promotes for and elects to public answer.

[armaghniac]

Sorry but what is the evidence that protestants in NI are less well educated than catholics?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26855040

[LCohen]

Sorry but what is the evidence that protestants in NI are less well educated than catholics?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26855040

Did you read beyond the first sentence of my post?

[armaghniac]

Sorry but what is the evidence that protestants in NI are less well educated than catholics?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26855040

Did you read beyond the first sentence of my post?

If some Protestants are similarly educated and some are less well educated then Protestants in aggregate are less well educated than Catholics. I certainly agree with your point that some DUP flat earthers are not representative.

[LCohen]

If some Protestants are similarly educated and some are less well educated then Protestants in aggregate are less well educated than Catholics.

Where did you go to school?

[armaghniac]

I suspect I went to a better school, you seem to have attended the Jim Allister school of discussion.

[charlieTully]

Over the next few decades demographic shifts will take care of itself and providing the economic situation is better than today there will be a UI. No question about it. But talking to death about it at the present time, especially politicians talking about it is a waste of time.

Subjects like this and flags, parades and even the past are being used by politicians to cover up the fact that they are completely and utterly fleecing the public. The health trusts are on their backs never mind their knees. Yesterday the Western Trust announced cuts of £7million meaning that frontline staff and patients are going to suffer big time!

Yesterday the mother of my son who's a careworker for the trust was told that she's losing her temorary contract because of these cuts while Stormonts ministers are been driven around by chauffeurs and employ their mates as advisors while claiming up to £80,000 in expenses on top of their £43,100 mla salary and £37, 801 ministers allowance!!

Last year mla's claimed a total of £7.5million in expenses alone while yesterday a health trust had to announce cuts of £7million. As well as that there are roughly 600 councillors floating about the north getting an allowance of £14,000.

It would make you sick to your stomach.  Sf agree to these cuts. I will never vote for the bastards again as long as I live. 

[Rossfan]

It would make you sick to your stomach. Sf agree to these cuts. I will never vote for the b**tards again as long as I live.

That's what being in power means 
Meanwhile in the 26 SF are against taxes and for better public services

[LCohen]

If some Protestants are similarly educated and some are less well educated then Protestants in aggregate are less well educated than Catholics.

Where did you go to school?

I suspect I went to a better school, you seem to have attended the Jim Allister school of discussion.

Far be it from me to try to break down the basic principles of logic for you but you really cannot do what you are attempting to do in the name of logic.

You are attempting to reach an aggregation of a set of known (and accepted) data (i.e. educational under-achievement in one section of the protestant community in NI) and .......well nothing really. You then claim that this aggregate position is less that the aggregation of the catholic community in NI. To aggregate data you have to have data - where is your data on respective educational achievement in protestant and catholic communities in NI in any other section of the community other than those entitled to free school meals?

[johnneycool]

There is if the Protestant population as a whole is not as educated as the Catholic population. You can't stop people going away for economic reasons- what counts is the capacity of those people who stay . And in the case of the Protestant community the ones who stay are less educated than their catholic equivalents.

This trend has particular implications. You will have a situation where people like health professional etc are mostly from a Catholic background and then you'll have fair employment issues arising because the number of Catholic speech therapists exceeds their ratio in the general community.

If you'd loads of unemployed Protestant speech therapists then you'd have a point.

[seafoid]

Sorry but what is the evidence that protestants in NI are less well educated than catholics?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26855040

"Poorer Protestant boys in Northern Ireland are seriously underachieving at school according to a new report.
Only Roma and Traveller children are getting poorer results, according to the study by the Community Relations Council."

That is shocking. Paisley never gave a sh$t about those people.
There must be some kind of communal trauma going on with results that are that bad.
Are there stats for rates of alcoholism or other social problems by community in NI ?

[Kidder81]

I remember coming across this a while back, dispels a few "poor me" myths from the Loyalist community, and makes it very clear that Catholics are in no position to be feeling proud of how some f our youngsters are performing at school.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2012/10/03/dispelling-the-myths-sustaining-loyalisms-grievance-narrative-part-one/

The inconvenient facts regarding socio-economic deprivation

Whilst it would appear quite easy for loyalists and their supporters within political unionism, the Loyal Orders and loyalist paramilitarism to make assertions regarding working class unionism being the fall guys for the peace process, what is utterly irrefutable is that the objective evidence from every source available points conclusively to the fact that working class catholic communities remain disproportionately represented amongst the ranks of the most deprived neighbourhoods in the north of Ireland.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) produced The Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2010, and it is viewed as 'the official measure of spatial deprivation in Northern Ireland.' It collates data relating to the status of individuals residing in every one of the 582 wards in Northern Ireland, using these figures to rank the status of each ward in relation to a range of domains including Income, Employment, Health Deprivation and Disability as well as Education, Skills and Training amongst others.

Whilst separate rankings exist for each domain, an accumulative overall multiple deprivation measure ranking is also provided. From this comparative analysis, a pretty coherent picture can be painted of the profile of the most socio-economically deprived communities:

14 of the 20 most deprived wards are predominantly catholic, including 8 of the most deprived 10 wards when assessed across all criteria.

Predominantly Catholic:  Whiterock, Falls, New Lodge, East (Strabane), Clonard, Creggan Central, Ardoyne, Twinbrook, Upper Springfield, The Diamond (Derry), Collin Glen, Water Works, Creggan South, Brandywell
Predominantly Protestant:  Shankill, Crumlin, Duncairn, Woodvale
Demographically mixed: Greystone, Ballymacarrett

16 of the 20 most deprived wards assessed on Household Income are predominantly catholic.

Predominantly Catholic:  Whiterock, Creggan Central, East (Strabane), Falls, New Lodge, Ardoyne, Collin Glen, Clonard, Creggan South, Shantallow East, Westland (Derry), Brandywell, Twinbrook, Upper Springfield, The Diamond (Derry), Ballycolman

Predominantly Protestant:   Shankill, Crumlin, Duncairn

Demographically mixed: Greystone

16 of the 20 most deprived wards assessed on Employment are predominantly catholic

Predominantly Catholic:  Whiterock, Creggan Central, East (Strabane), Falls, New Lodge, Ardoyne, Clonard, Creggan South, Shantallow East, Westland (Derry), Brandywell, Twinbrook, Upper Springfield, The Diamond (Derry), Ballycolman, Water Works

Predominantly Protestant:   Crumlin, Shankill, Duncairn
Demographically mixed Greystone

12 of the 20 most deprived wards assessed on Education, Skills and Training are predominantly protestant.

Predominantly Catholic: Falls, Whiterock, New Lodge, Upper Springfield, Collin Glen, East (Strabane), Corcrain

Predominantly Protestant:   Shankill, Crumlin, Woodvale, Dunanney, The Mount, Duncairn, Shaftesbury, Ballee, Woodstock, Tullycarnet, Glencairn, Northland

Demographically mixed: Ballymacarrett

Interestingly, a couple of demographically mixed wards also feature prominently amongst the most deprived neigbourhoods- Ballymacarrett in east Belfast and Greystone in Limavady (both approximately 50% catholic and 50% protestant at ward level.) Whilst the former is rigidly segregated, the latter can be recorded as the most deprived non-rigidly segregated mixed ward in Northern Ireland (not really any consolation in that though.) It is also worth noting that, although Diamond in Derry is more than 80% catholic, it also includes a sizeable minority protestant population.

The Peace Monitoring Report 2012 made reference to the facts regarding greater catholic levels of deprivation, an enduring feature of northern Irish life, when it reported that "the proportion of people who are in low-income households is much higher among Catholics (26%) than among Protestants (16%)."

The figures outlined above collectively point to a conclusion that, across the range of poverty and deprivation indicators, it is not sustainable to suggest that working class protestant communities are losing out to their catholic neighbours, who continue to predominate the range of lists ranking the most deprived communities in the State.

It is only in the field of Education and Skills that working class protestant communities appear to be faring even worse than their catholic counterparts, and this has been highlighted by unionist politicians and others throughout recent years (who are somewhat more reluctant to highlight the figures relating to overall deprivation, employment and income however.)

Indeed, education was back in the news yesterday with the revelation that 26 of the worst 30 wards for school pupil absenteeism are predominantly protestant, and this theme of educational underachievement and low attainment formed the basis of an excellent piece of research conducted by controlled sector educationalists, academics and some political figures, including Dawn Purvis, entitled Educational Underachievement and the Protestant Working Class: A Summary of Research for Consultation.

Their primary focus was on highlighting the worryingly bleak levels of performance by many protestant pupils in working class communities. Amongst their many findings was the revelation that "At Key Stage 2 in English and Maths, 11% of (mainly Protestant) controlled schools were designated Lower than expected (LTE) as against 3% of Catholic maintained schools."

But within their report, the authors correctly acknowledged that a majority of those pupils failing to achieve the basic minimum threshold of 5 GCSE grades (A*-C) were in fact catholic, underscoring the reality that educational underachievement and low attainment is a factor affecting both communities, a point reiterated in The Peace Monitoring Report 2012: "proportionately more Protestant than Catholic males leave school without five good GCSEs (49% versus 46%), because of the larger number of Catholics in this age cohort, there are in absolute terms slightly more Catholic than Protestant males under- achieving at this level (2,608 versus 2,363)."

The pattern of educational underachievement and low attainment straddling the two communities is once again underlined by an analysis of pupil attendance at grammar schools from working class communities. It may come as a surprise to some to learn that a higher number and percentage of pupils from Shankill attend grammar school than those from the New Lodge ward and more from Glencairn than Falls and Whiterock (based on Year 8 pupils, 2009/10 data.)

Hence the despair when political parties seek to sectarianise a genuine attempt to address low attainment across the school sectors as was the case when the DUP's 2011 Assembly election manifesto included the pledge to "Develop a strategy to assist Protestant working class boys who tend to have the lowest level of achievement, addressing issues such as aspiration, parental involvement and the value placed on education."

Note the complete absence of interest in the plight of working class catholic boys who form the majority of males failing to obtain the basic minimum threshold of five GCSEs (A*-C.)

There is a real need for political leaders and the statutory agencies they control to address the genuine needs of those most vulnerable within society, and amongst this number can be counted thousands of residents of the working class protestant and loyalist estates across the north of Ireland.

But seeking to sectarianise poverty and pit the poorest against one another by peddling a false narrative which perpetuates ghetto warfare and harms the prospect of a developing accommodation and reconciliation between the working class communities who bore the brunt of the conflict can not and should not be allowed to proceed unchallenged.

It represents the manifestation of a sectarian mindset being brought to governance, and is also ironically counterproductive to the longer term ambitions of political unionism- namely, to prove itself capable of embracing those from outside of the traditional PUL base.

Posted the above a few montha ago, not sure the Catholic population should start getting too uppity about educational achievements