Various bits re Brexit and Economics

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/21/british-cats-dogs-ferrets-will-need-eu-pet-passport-travel-northern/

British cats, dogs and ferrets will need an EU pet passport to travel to Northern Ireland after Brexit
The internal “pet border” in the UK from Jan 1 next year is a result of the Withdrawal Agreement

The creation of an internal “pet border” in the United Kingdom from Jan 1 next year is a result of the Withdrawal Agreement Boris Johnson negotiated with Brussels.

That deal effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs territory and moves the border between it and the Republic to the Irish Sea to prevent the need for inflammatory checks on the border after Brexit.

The EU’s Pet Travel Scheme allows for the free movement of cats, dogs and ferrets in the bloc without the need for quarantine.  A quarter of a million British pets use their passports to travel in the EU every year, according to the European Commission.

Joe Moran is deputy coordinator of the UK-EU Animal Welfare Taskforce and works for the Eurogroup for Animals, an umbrella organisation for 70 animal welfare charities.

“You can't refer to the UK at all in this case as a single unit any more,” he said. “Pet passports will be needed between Great Britain and Northern Ireland."

[RedHand88]

Know someone who got pulled about bringing the dog to Donegal. Couldn't believe it, had no idea it was a thing.

[five points]

Know someone who got pulled about bringing the dog to Donegal. Couldn't believe it, had no idea it was a thing.

Ridiculous. In normal times our dog crosses the border at least every fortnight.

[seafoid]

   https://www.ft.com/content/d60cdc40-9fec-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

   
https://www.ft.com/content/d60cdc40-9fec-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

A permanent state in which the equilibrium nominal interest rate throughout the developed world is at or below the central bank policy rate is, to put it mildly, really worrying.

There are three possible consequences of this.

The first is that the world could be stuck at zero. All the advanced economies may follow the example of Japan since 2016, with interest rates across the entire yield curve stuck at zero, and fiscal policy battling against a continuous rise in government debt ratios. For asset markets, this would represent a low-return world, with demand management becoming increasingly hamstrung in recurring recessions.

With the second, we could have permanent fiscal stimulus and rising debt. Before the full effects of the ­virus became apparent, Paul Krugman suggested that the US should permanently increase public investment and the budget deficit by 2 per cent of gross domestic product, with the debt ratio eventually rising to 200 per cent of GDP. This would increase equilibrium interest rates, raising the average level of policy rates and bond yields. The yield curve would shift higher and adopt a more normal upward slope, allowing more scope for easing during recessions.

By reversing the trend decline in interest rates, this policy may result in an immediate period of negative returns for both bonds and equities, though the long-term effects are less clear.

And the third could give us very negative interest rates. Japan and the eurozone have attempted to increase scope for active monetary policy by reducing policy rates slightly below zero, eventually dragging bond yields into negative territory. However, as Kenneth Rogoff has argued, this policy could only succeed if pursued far more aggressively, taking policy rates to minus 3 per cent, or even lower, in recessions. By extending the decades-long downward trend in interest rates, this approach would probably prolong high returns from both bonds and equities.

The political feasibility of these extremely radical fiscal and monetary policy changes seems highly questionable.

[seafoid]

Adam Payne

@adampayne26

New: The potential impact of the Northern Ireland protocol is becoming clearer - and it’s alarming - Major retailers, including a big supermarket, are considering leaving NI, I’m told - New costs & price rises are set to hit poorest families the hardest

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-border-checks-force-retailers-consider-pull-out-northern-ireland-2020-6?r=US&IR=T

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/4fd04fd9-7209-4b7c-97a1-97466f226159

Headwinds are continuing to build for sterling, said Mr Sharma, given the year-end deadline for finalising the EU trade relationship and the country’s persistent current account deficit. “We believe sterling is in the process of evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem similar to more liquid [emerging market] currencies,” he said.

[armaghniac]

I have a bill in Sterling, perhaps it will oblige and fall quickly.

[seafoid]

I have a bill in Sterling, perhaps it will oblige and fall quickly.

The emerging market union
The tragedy of the unionists is being attached to the fading UK

[marty34]

What way will the pound go against the euro?

Will it get to parity where 1 euro = 1 pound stg?

[bennydorano]

Depends on what you read, the dislike of the UK crosses many barriers and influences an awful amount of articles. I've been reading articles that have stated a trade deal is highly likely to be agreed in principle before the end of Summer (with a real deadline of Halloween), then you've articles by the likes of Tony Blair briefing that he's been told the EU 100% expect no deal.

If a trade deal is agreed Sterling will track back upwards, assuming the worst of Covid is behind the UK. Trying to spend their way out of post-covid recession rather than through austerity is a bit of a gamble(tho i see he hasn't ruled out tax rises) as far as conservative money markets are concerned but no major power or bloc is in a great position bar maybe China, the money markets need the old guard for stability in uncertain times, I wouldn't back against STG in the long run.

[seafoid]

The current account deficit is a fact. The UK is living beyond its means.
Brexit will reduce living standards.

Sterling is pricing this in.

[bennydorano]

You're applying sound economic principles to playing a roulette wheel tho. Money markets are as much about confidence & stability as the tangible economic facts. The UK Government hasn't been covering itself in glory by any measure lately tho, so a Stg collapse is a definite possibility in the current volatility but I wouldn't bet against it in the medium to long term.