Future Shock - RTE last night

[ExiledGael]

Both! The financial wisdom I'm fairly assured of though

[Bord na Mona man]

Obviously supply outstripping demand is not such an issue any more. It was one of the main explanations for the large price rises.

How many houses are expected to be built in the next few years?
At current rates half a million units are being added to the housing stock every 6 years.
That's a whole lot of houses and apartments for only 4 million people.

I expect the numbers of completions to decrease in the coming years, but it can't suddenly fall without a sizeable hit to the juggernaut that is the construction industry.
You can't quickly and smoothly rapidly decelerate the construction output without a huge correction.
So the already existing problem of unoccupied units is either going to get worse, or a huge industry is set to go into big decline.

A soft landing will be hard to achieve if a huge proportion of our workforce can no longer make a living producing what is no longer needed. A bit like the farming industry! I can't see us propping us the builders with subsidies to produce either.

All anecdotal evidence that I've heard is that lots of the "holiday homes" around the midlands are not selling too well or being occupied. One source was a census enumerator in a medium sized midlands town who told me there were 200 empty units in this town of 3-4000 people. In another bigger town a neighbour of ours is still the only person to have bought in a 17 house development.

The market in Dublin and other big towns will probably be ok. It's the "commuters' paradises" in the middle of nowhere that will feel it most.

[J70]

Both! The financial wisdom I'm fairly assured of though

Depends on what you like. Convoy is a fairly typical, quiet, rural village, but its only a quick drive from Letterkenny, Balybofey/Stranorlar and Lifford/Strabane, and less than an hour from Derry. You don't get quite the same standard of scenery as you in the rest of the county, but its pleasant enough (its better farmland, which, as in parts of south Donegal, would explain the much more mixed population, in terms of religion!). Did you buy in the village itself, or out in the countryside?

[ExiledGael]

It's technically in the town, but the last house in the town, just the green hills to the background!

[muppet]

 The rental market in Dublin is actually growing so existing long term investors have little to worry about. I can't see too many new investors for the next few years though. Yield is the key word for that sectir and current yields are even below bank savings rates.

In another bigger town a neighbour of ours is still the only person to have bought in a 17 house development.

This would be a major concern which I haven't heard of up to now. Either the builder drastically drops his prices and the value of property in that town drops considerably or he sits on his stock hoping to ride it out. The latter will only last for the short term. The thing is no one knows for sure how it will go.

The celebrity economists rushing onto the 'it's gonna crash' bandwagon are contributing to the problem along with McDowell and the other stamp duty speculators. If these two overquoted sources admitted neither are certain of either of their forecast changes then your builder might have been able to drop prices slightly and he might have attracted some buyers. His problem is that most potential buyers are adopting a 'wait and see what the next budget brings' stance. Others are waiting to see what the market does which is even more futile because as I mentioned in an earlier post all analysis is retrospective. Between deciding to buy and actually closing the deal the market can have moved quite a bit in either direction so trying to call it is difficult even for the experts.

BTW I'm no apologist for the builders who have made serious money from the boom.

[Canalman]

Property prices in Dublin are definitely falling at the moment. The west of the County(which I am familiar with) has seen a big fall. Houses which were going for E430k last Spring are being touted at E390k and still not being sold.
Many houses for sale are not even getting any viewings.
This downturn is definitely being underreported in the media as imo the papers make a fortune in property supplement ads.
As for apartments forget about trying to sell them.

Houses in my parents' estate in the South of the County are not being sold despite being on the market since last Summer.

[the Deel Rover]

hello exiled Gael we could be neighbours as i bought in convoy in october 2005 not 2006 as i had allready stated. As j70 said its a nice rural village with 2 pubs,a school, football field and shops all within walking distance of many of the newly built estates.What i have noticed in my estate is that most of the houses are occupied  very few are left vacant and my opinion is that people are now looking to buy in Convoy rather than Letterkenny as the houses are cheaper and its only 15-20 minutes drive away,also there are a lot of Northern reg cars in the estates so people must be commuting to work in NI.     

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Without exception, those who are predicting a soft-landing are from the lending sector, with the obvious vested interests (they used to deny that there'd even be a flattening of the upward curve at all).  Those without any vested interests – the academics – are, without exception, much more pessimistic.  That tells its own story.

Agree with Canalman: if anything, the current downturn has been understated, underreported and deliberately muted.  The enticements offered by the industry now to shift property grow increasingly more generous (desperate?) – first 6 months of mortgage paid, fully fitted-kitched worth €5,000, fully fitted-kitchen plus first 6 months mortgage, etc. 

[ExiledGael]

Very good Deel Rover, I'll be the one kicking the O'Neills against the gable wall every evening, and probably missing

[stephenite]

People are talking about the likeliehood of a crash of the housing market, and as BC1 points out this would require for a variety of conditions and factors to line up for it to occur.

I'd have a fear that one big sneeze from one of the Tech/Pharma giants will see the rest catching a cold and fecking off elsewhere.

Take for example if Dell were to pull out of Ireland - with massive numbers employed in both Limerick and Bray it would devestate both communities. I don't think it's too far fetched to think that the likes of HP and Intel would be too far behind them and there goes Leixlip and lots of people from West Dublin and the Midlands from the many thousands that are employed there.
While it may sound a bit far fetched , we have become so uncompetitive in terms of the wages we now demand that the above sort of scenarios cannot be ruled out.

And that's just the Tech sector, Pharmaceutical giants would than follow suit and it's curtains for the economy and the Tiger.
If anything like the above was to occur the overall knock on effect on the housing market would be pretty catastrophic

I deliberatley painted a doomsday scenario and prob unlikely - but anyone care to rule it out. I'm sure there are factors I am not considering and the more astutue economists could pick some rather large holes in my theory

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

People are talking about the likeliehood of a crash of the housing market, and as BC1 points out this would require for a variety of conditions and factors to line up for it to occur.

I'd have a fear that one big sneeze from one of the Tech/Pharma giants will see the rest catching a cold and fecking off elsewhere.

Take for example if Dell were to pull out of Ireland - with massive numbers employed in both Limerick and Bray it would devestate both communities. I don't think it's too far fetched to think that the likes of HP and Intel would be too far behind them and there goes Leixlip and lots of people from West Dublin and the Midlands from the many thousands that are employed there.
While it may sound a bit far fetched , we have become so uncompetitive in terms of the wages we now demand that the above sort of scenarios cannot be ruled out.

And that's just the Tech sector, Pharmaceutical giants would than follow suit and it's curtains for the economy and the Tiger.
If anything like the above was to occur the overall knock on effect on the housing market would be pretty catastrophic

I deliberatley painted a doomsday scenario and prob unlikely - but anyone care to rule it out. I'm sure there are factors I am not considering and the more astutue economists could pick some rather large holes in my theory

That was touched on in the Future Shock programme, specifically, would/could they remain if the Dollar goes into freefall.

In the follow-up Prime Time programme on the subsequent night, Morgan Kelly (UCD Economics Professor) remarked that there were currently in excess of 200,000 unoccupied properties in the state at this time, with a further 80,000 to come on stream this year, a statistic in itself that is fairly alarming.

[Declan]

Estate Agents are letting people/staff go as well.

[ludermor]

Deel Rover,
Have you met any glenamoy men around convoy?

[the Deel Rover]

Hows it going ludermor i don't live in convoy my house is rented out,the funny thing about your question is that 1 of my parents comes from Glenamoy and many a good night i have had out in Healy's   

[ludermor]

Healys is a rare spot.
An glenamoy married a girl from convoy and moved there 3/4 years ago. Seems quite settled it must be said