Missing Malaysia Airlines Plane.

[orangeman]

It was confirmed that the luggage of the 5 people who didn't board was taken off the flight.

Confirmed by whom is the problem.

How many pieces were put on ? How many were taken off if any ?

[DennistheMenace]

It was confirmed that the luggage of the 5 people who didn't board was taken off the flight.

Confirmed by whom is the problem.

How many pieces were put on ? How many were taken off if any ?

The airline I believe. All luggage was Xrayed too. Talk about the aircraft disintegrating at high altitude 35,000 feet but again you'd expect debris still but at a much wider area.

Facts

Flying conditions were ideal
No Mayday call
Plane initially turned back
No confirmed debris

I know the 777 is a very safe aircraft but don't think it could possibly sink in one piece. Could be wrong though.

[orangeman]

What worries me most is that Interpol know that there are x number of stolen passports out there and that those who have either stolen them or received them can board a plane and go anywhere in the world on a stolen passport and the security services aren't able to flag this up as soon as a stolen passport is handed over before boarding nor do they know who is boarding.

This is real cause for concern.

Within a short time of the plane disappearing, the same security people can tell us that there were at least 2 people and maybe more on the plane travelling on stolen passports.

Very reassuring.

[DennistheMenace]

What worries me most is that Interpol know that there are x number of stolen passports out there and that those who have either stolen them or received them can board a plane and go anywhere in the world on a stolen passport and the security services aren't able to flag this up as soon as a stolen passport is handed over before boarding nor do they know who is boarding.

This is real cause for concern.

Within a short time of the plane disappearing, the same security people can tell us that there were at least 2 people and maybe more on the plane travelling on stolen passports.

Very reassuring.

Interpol have a database of 39 million stolen or missing passports. I'm still not sure about the hijack theory, while obviously plausible, it's equally likely they were immigrating illegal to Europe where their tickets were booked to apparently.

[orangeman]

Where is the wreckage then ?

Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.

"In calm seas, if there were a soccer ball [football] or a basketball floating in the water, the radar could pick it up. They [flight recorders] typically have a radio beacon and so for example our P3 [radar] - if they are flying within a certain range of that - will pick up that radio beacon. We have not yet picked up anything, but that's typically what those black boxes contain."

[DennistheMenace]

Where is the wreckage then ?

Commander William Marks from the US Seventh Fleet, which is taking part in the search, says he expects the plane's flight recorders to be floating in the water.

"In calm seas, if there were a soccer ball [football] or a basketball floating in the water, the radar could pick it up. They [flight recorders] typically have a radio beacon and so for example our P3 [radar] - if they are flying within a certain range of that - will pick up that radio beacon. We have not yet picked up anything, but that's typically what those black boxes contain."

They aren't sure of the location and it can take days, remember the Air France 447 (link below) flying from Brazil - I think it took at least 4 days to find a wreckage, granted over a bigger surface.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

[orangeman]

The Air France area of ocean was ridiculously big compared with this South China Sea area.


The hijacking one is a long shot. Impossible theory in my view. But would be delighted to be wrong.

[maddog]

The Air France area of ocean was ridiculously big compared with this South China Sea area.


The hijacking one is a long shot. Impossible theory in my view. But would be delighted to be wrong.

Surely if hijacked some sort of mayday call would have been made.

[DennistheMenace]

Suicide is another plausible theory, but again we're all guessing.

I believe there has only been one instance of a major aircraft disaster where no trace of debris has ever been found, Varig flight 967

[johnneycool]

It was confirmed that the luggage of the 5 people who didn't board was taken off the flight.

Maybe a tap on the shoulder and a quiet word in the ear made these 5 people not get the flight, just adding to the conspiracy theory!!!

[DennistheMenace]

It was confirmed that the luggage of the 5 people who didn't board was taken off the flight.

Maybe a tap on the shoulder and a quiet word in the ear made these 5 people not get the flight, just adding to the conspiracy theory!!!

All very sensational and not very likely. People miss planes all the time when they've checked in. I've no doubt we'll find out what happened, just a matter of when.

[orangeman]

It was confirmed that the luggage of the 5 people who didn't board was taken off the flight.

Maybe a tap on the shoulder and a quiet word in the ear made these 5 people not get the flight, just adding to the conspiracy theory!!!

All very sensational and not very likely. People miss planes all the time when they've checked in. I've no doubt we'll find out what happened, just a matter of when.

5 people ?

I've never checked in and missed getting  on board nor do I know anybody that has. But I would assume that on occasion, passengers do miss planes.

[DennistheMenace]

It was confirmed that the luggage of the 5 people who didn't board was taken off the flight.

Maybe a tap on the shoulder and a quiet word in the ear made these 5 people not get the flight, just adding to the conspiracy theory!!!

All very sensational and not very likely. People miss planes all the time when they've checked in. I've no doubt we'll find out what happened, just a matter of when.

5 people ?

I've never checked in and missed getting  on board nor do I know anybody that has. But I would assume that on occasion, passengers do miss planes.

I'd suggest it happens a lot more regularly than you think, it's not unusual and i've been on a couple of flights were luggage has been taken off due to a no show or late passenger. Doubt very much it's relevant.

[muppet]

The media have lost the plot on this one. They are quoting opinions from 'unnamed sources' and other 'experts' who are just speculating with no info and evidently no expertise.

They are reporting stuff that happens everyday on flights everywhere, as significant. People miss flights all the time, as long as the bags are removed it is irrelevant. Fake passports happen a lot more than everyone thinks. Many Government Agencies have been known to use them, for example: ( http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-02-26/mossad-factory-churned-out-fake-australian/343612 )

Then we have the aircraft turned back commentary matched with experts claiming it must have blown up in flight. These two scenarios don't seem that compatible to me. Either it blows up without warning, or something happens to justify a turn-back. It normally takes 1 minute to turn an aircraft that size 180 degrees. If it was a hi-jack there are ways to discretely communicate that to ATC, so for me either it blew up without warning or something major caused a turn-back. Then again the 'turn-back' may have been a mis-interpretation of a change in direction caused by a catastrophic event. i.e looking at a radar screen and seeing an aircraft no longer moving forward, one could interpret that info as an aircraft beginning to turn. 

Then we have the experts claiming it must have blown up as they have found no debris. I agree with the posters above, a midair explosion would create a huge debris field and make it MORE likely they would have found debris by now, not less likely. An aircraft in one piece but descending at 600mph or more straight into the water would leave a small debris field with most of it on the sea-floor.

As for the US 7th Fleet guy who expects to see the black box floating. He may be right, but it will be the first time I recall that a box that sinks was found floating. It took two years to find the AF447 black boxes because they were at the bottom of the ocean, which is where I expect these boxes are.

The speculation in this particular accident is about the daftest I have seen in the media after a crash. They know absolutely nothing and of course that isn't very newsworthy so they run with every soundbite no matter how crazy.

So what could cause a jet with circa 250 people on board to just disappear without a trace, just as it reaches it's cruising level?

1) Catastrophic mechanical failure: there are reports on PPRUNE that this aircraft had a minor collision on the ground a few years ago causing damage to the wing tip. I would think it is very unlikely to be a factor 2 years later. Modern aircraft just don't have this type of failure. AF447 started with major failures to the cockpit instruments but that was caused by atrocious weather and a poor response from the co-pilots, weather doesn't seem to be a factor here.

2) A bomb: The fact that it was just reaching it's cruise level makes this a possibility for me. Before all of the recent developments in electronics, bomb makers used to use a type of barometer to detonate bombs on aircraft. As the cabin pressure climbs, and the difference between pressure inside the cain and outside increases, the barometer would measure this and aim to detonate at high altitude to give the bomb the opportunity to do maximum damage. Even with modern electronics, the most effective time for a bomb on board is while the aircraft is pressurised to the maximum, which starts as you reach your cruising level, so whatever device is used this would be the optimum time to detonate a bomb.

3) Pilot suicide: It has happened a few times. Again just reaching cruising level can be a natural time for the other pilot to succumb to a call of nature often leaving one pilot on their own.

4) A fire in the cockpit or very close to it: Again it has happened, but unless it started unbelievably quickly you would have expected a Mayday call.

5) A missile: Again this has happened and it might explain a lot of the confusion. But I think the US or someone would have picked up both the missile and the explosion and we haven't heard even a rumour about this.

In conclusion I haven't a clue on this one.

[DennistheMenace]

The fact there were no distress signals is a bit alarming. Communication comes after aviating and navigation but it does led you to believe that whatever scenario occured, it was sudden. The media are speculating on everything possible, from a secret landing, to the 2 fake passports, to the 5 people who didn't board but at this minute there is no evidence and we're all guessing what happened.

The water is in that area is fairly shallow so I still think they will find it sooner rather than later.