Na Cait v Gaillimh, AIF 9 Sept

[belleaqua]

Very hard to know how to feel about the next day after a draw. I think it's fair to say these Galway players have no fear of Kilkenny despite our fears as supporters. There's a hundred ways to look at it.

One thing is noticeable is that Kilkenny really lack depth in their squad-something that has never been the case over the years. Galway aren't bursting with bench talent either but seem to have a couple more options than KK now. Horrible to see Conor Cooney replaced again and I think that's him done for the year given that his confidence is shot and I feel sorry for him-form just gone at the wrong time.

One thing I found very interesting was Kilkenny's man to man approach and Tommy Walsh's tracking of Cyril Donnellan. I would like to hear other posters opinions on this duel as the analysts and media seem to have ignored it. It appears to me that when the Galway management saw Tommy track Donnellan that they shoved him in full forward to take Tommy out of the game in the half back line? I certainly dont think it was the tactic from the start to play Donnellan full forward?

This raises a number of points. Why like Tipp were management paying so much heed to Tommy?

Did this have an influence in keeping Joe Canning away from the full forward position as they were keen to keep Donnellan is there thus keeping Walsh out of the half back line?

It restricted Donnellan's influence as he is a half forward who wins ball and is best running at the defence? He won a couple of puckouts when in the half forward line and thought he would have troubled Kilkenny much more out in his natural position.

I thought they cancelled each other out overall yet reading the ratings today you would swear Walsh eat Donnellan up.

Harsh on Niall Burke being substituted too-great man to take a score eevn when he is out of the game.

[Asal Mor]

Very hard to know how to feel about the next day after a draw. I think it's fair to say these Galway players have no fear of Kilkenny despite our fears as supporters. There's a hundred ways to look at it.

One thing is noticeable is that Kilkenny really lack depth in their squad-something that has never been the case over the years. Galway aren't bursting with bench talent either but seem to have a couple more options than KK now. Horrible to see Conor Cooney replaced again and I think that's him done for the year given that his confidence is shot and I feel sorry for him-form just gone at the wrong time.

One thing I found very interesting was Kilkenny's man to man approach and Tommy Walsh's tracking of Cyril Donnellan. I would like to hear other posters opinions on this duel as the analysts and media seem to have ignored it. It appears to me that when the Galway management saw Tommy track Donnellan that they shoved him in full forward to take Tommy out of the game in the half back line? I certainly dont think it was the tactic from the start to play Donnellan full forward?

This raises a number of points. Why like Tipp were management paying so much heed to Tommy?

Did this have an influence in keeping Joe Canning away from the full forward position as they were keen to keep Donnellan is there thus keeping Walsh out of the half back line?

It restricted Donnellan's influence as he is a half forward who wins ball and is best running at the defence? He won a couple of puckouts when in the half forward line and thought he would have troubled Kilkenny much more out in his natural position.

I thought they cancelled each other out overall yet reading the ratings today you would swear Walsh eat Donnellan up.

Harsh on Niall Burke being substituted too-great man to take a score eevn when he is out of the game.

Yeah I think that's the reason Donnellan spent so much time in the full-forward line. I'm all for forwards moving around but I'd agree that Donnellan and Canning both spent too long away from their best positions. Galway should just play their own game. All of Kilkenny's backs are brilliant so there's not much point in trying to take one lad away from the action. Hogan and Murphy were Kilkenny's best backs yesterday.

[Cyril Farrell fan]

I was delighted when he took the point.
His real chance to win the game was a few minutes after when he stuck a simple chance wide.

CFF - What was the mood of the Galway folowers after the game? I thought it was a great result considering we didn't really get going in the second half at all.

Mixed emotions. Having been 7 points up, there was a feeling that we lost a great chance.
On the other hand, KK got level with us with 20 to go and didn't pull away.
There was mayhem when Joe put over equalizer, though people were happy for the final whistle to blow too.

People had dismissed the Leinster final as a fluke, but yesterday was Kilkenny trying their hardest.

Galway people are now looking at Kilkenny and seeing weaknesses. The more we thought about it after, the more we felt Galway could learn a lot for the replay.
As the pints flowed, every one of us agreed that Joe Canning would have gone for goal and scored it with the late penalty.

Henry could have won an All Ireland on his own with 1-1 at the end but he didn't...or he couldn't. Kilkenny are fallible!

[Asal Mor]

Yeah it was the first final for most of this team and I think they'll grow from it.

About belle aqua's point on the lack of depth in the Kilkenny squad. I was surprised too that they only had Matthew Ruth to bring on - a guy who has had chances and hasn't cut it at this level at all, especially after the beating they gave Galway in the U-21 semi- final. I'd have thoguht some of those lads like Walter Walsh or Ger Aylward would be a better bet than Ruth.

[Franko]

Yes - definitely the correct percentage play, in my view, which is not something you often see chosen properly in the heat of competition.

There are two to five minutes left, depending on the ref.

He sores the penalty. Estimated probability - 80% (though that may be generous). KK nearly certainly win.
He misses the penalty. Estimated probability - 20%. The momentum and psychological advantage are handed to Galway. Galway more likely than KK to win.
He takes the point. Estimated probability - 100% for all intents and purpose. The momentum and psychological advantage stay with KK, with a good chance of a win and a probable worst case outcome of a draw.

Hardy I think you have omitted one of the most likely outcomes - Henry goes for a goal and the ball is deflected for either for a point or a 65.  Either way a point is as good as given.

When this is factored in I reckon he didn't actually play the percentages at all.

[ballinaman]

[Asal Mor]

Great pic ballinaman and the new background on my desktop.

[Croí na hÉireann]

Yes - definitely the correct percentage play, in my view, which is not something you often see chosen properly in the heat of competition.

There are two to five minutes left, depending on the ref.

He sores the penalty. Estimated probability - 80% (though that may be generous). KK nearly certainly win.
He misses the penalty. Estimated probability - 20%. The momentum and psychological advantage are handed to Galway. Galway more likely than KK to win.
He takes the point. Estimated probability - 100% for all intents and purpose. The momentum and psychological advantage stay with KK, with a good chance of a win and a probable worst case outcome of a draw.

Hardy I think you have omitted one of the most likely outcomes - Henry goes for a goal and the ball is deflected for either for a point or a 65.  Either way a point is as good as given.

When this is factored in I reckon he didn't actually play the percentages at all.

I said the same to the woman in front of me who was giving out about him going for goal from the early free on the 21. He put the resulting 65 wide.

[seafoid]

Does anyone have the stats for possession? I'd say Galway had the ball more often than the cats.
The ball into the forwards is a definite area for improvement the next day for Galway.

I also think the aura of the cats isn't what it was.
A lot of their forwards failed to turn up and they made a lot of poor calls under pressure.

Cunningham has been on an amazing journey with the u21s last year and now this and it is so encouraging.


Mayo now to perform against Donegal . 

[spuds]

RTE had Galway possession at 52% to 48% Kilkenny at the end of the match.

[Estimator]

Yes - definitely the correct percentage play, in my view, which is not something you often see chosen properly in the heat of competition.

There are two to five minutes left, depending on the ref.

He sores the penalty. Estimated probability - 80% (though that may be generous). KK nearly certainly win.
He misses the penalty. Estimated probability - 20%. The momentum and psychological advantage are handed to Galway. Galway more likely than KK to win.
He takes the point. Estimated probability - 100% for all intents and purpose. The momentum and psychological advantage stay with KK, with a good chance of a win and a probable worst case outcome of a draw.

Hardy I think you have omitted one of the most likely outcomes - Henry goes for a goal and the ball is deflected for either for a point or a 65.  Either way a point is as good as given.

When this is factored in I reckon he didn't actually play the percentages at all.

I said the same to the woman in front of me who was giving out about him going for goal from the early free on the 21. He put the resulting 65 wide.

I wonder if that was on his mind. He'd another 21yd free a couple of minutes before the penalty decision and opted for the point as well. On another day he could have taken 3goals.

[Hoof Hearted]

19 pts each from all 4 teams yesterday - useless stat for yous there!

[seafoid]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0910/1224323800002.html


The Irish Times - Monday, September 10, 2012
Hurling the winner as thriller goes to the wire
NICKY ENGLISH
HURLING ANALYST: HURLING HAS – yet again – shown itself to be a quite unique and magnificent sport. This All-Ireland final was a fantastic, unbelievable occasion and, for those of us looking on, it has left us licking our lips in anticipation of a repeat and an extension of a great season: Kilkenny and Galway all over again? What could be better?
This was a final that ebbed and flowed and, just like the minor appetiser, producing a game played in the oppressive conditions that fittingly came down to the wire. It was as tense an All-Ireland final as I ever saw in latter years and, if the final free won by Davy Glennon which was pointed by Joe Canning was a little questionable, the fact Canning stood up and converted it under pressure from an awkward angle demonstrated immense character and provided probably the fitting conclusion. A draw, but hurling was the winner!
I was sure Kilkenny would win the Leinster final earlier in the year and I was wrong. I was less confident about yesterday's All-Ireland final but still thought they might do it. Now? I just don't know.
It will be even harder to win the next day and the manner in which Galway played in this game underlines just what a tonic they have been for this year's championship. Galway might feel they left it after them having had a seven-point lead; however, on the evidence of the season, it's possible the next three weeks could still be more wearying in Nowlan Park than in Galway.
Looking back on it, I believe the period just before half-time – when Galway conceded a number of frees – was critical. Up to then, Galway's defence was on top, they had all the energy and all the momentum. Their half-back line, just as in the Leinster final, was superb and their midfield, and Andy Smith in particular, dominated this area.
Galway didn't get as great a start as they'd got in the Leinster final but seemed well in control and that seven-point lead they amassed at one stage confirmed how far they've come this year.
In the first half, Kilkenny had no answer to Galway until that late spell when Henry Shefflin, who had been off target with frees earlier in the game, found his radar and allowed the champions to get closer at half-time than they might, or should, have been.
There were a number of untypical wides from Kilkenny, including a scenario where Shefflin went for a goal from a 20- metre free and then put the subsequent 65 wide. It was like a double blow and perhaps highlighted just how Galway had all the momentum at that stage.
At half-time, I felt Galway could go on and win the game but Kilkenny are Kilkenny and you have to hand it to Brian Hogan, Paul Murphy and Henry, in particular, for hauling them back into the game.
They fought unbelievably hard to get back level and, then when Henry put them in front, there was a sense they had turned the tide against the odds and were the ones with the momentum until Niall Burke struck with Galway's second goal.
Shefflin, going for his ninth All-Ireland medal, might have expected more from his attacking colleagues than to have to turn back the clock and take up the cross at number 11 again just as he did so often in the past.
TJ Reid apart, none of the others matched Shefflin's appetite or delivered as much.
The last 10 minutes was a drama with two central characters, King Henry seeking to hold on to his crown from the emerging Joe Canning.
There were a number of critical happenings towards the death. James Skehill's save from Colin Fennelly was brilliant and brave but Fennelly shouldn't have given the goalkeeper any chance.
Then, there was Shefflin's decision to take the point from the penalty.
Now it was down to King Henry. Do you go for a goal? He weighed up the options. He asked the referee how much time was left in the game.
I can honestly say I would have done the same thing to take the point if in his position. It was high stakes at that stage but the percentage call was to take the point. It definitely would have won the match for Kilkenny if he went for a goal and got it.
But, in taking the point, he knew the worst thing that could likely happen was that the match would be a draw and they would have taken that after 30 minutes.
I thought the referee Barry Kelly had a very good game but I could fully understand why Brian Cody should have been so animated over the awarding of that late free that ultimately allowed Galway to level matters.
Still, Canning had to stand up and be counted. For some reason, maybe it had to do with the wind, but shooting at height – from frees and general play – was less accurate down the Hill 16 end of the pitch. Canning had only minutes earlier missed a free from a similarly awkward position. He showed what a great player he is by making no mistake with a low- struck free that defied the wind to level the match.
No winners, except those who witnessed it. Shefflin was great. Joe Canning was great. Kevin Hynes, Johnny Coen were outstanding in the Galway defence. Iarla Tannian was hugely influential. Kilkenny's Brian Hogan was brilliant in the second half.
What's more, it's going to be hard to call the next day as well because the same questions are still there. What about Kilkenny's energy levels? How much has this taken out of them?
Galway have been a tonic for the championship this year. They nearly did again what they did in the Leinster final and it took an unbelievable rearguard action from Kilkenny, with some of the greatest players of all time at the pin of their collar, to deny them. You have to hand it to Kilkenny as well because they fought valiantly and a draw was a fair result and great for hurling.

[Declan]

Excellent analysis by English. If himself and Henry thought it was the right call for the penalty who are we to argue

[Hardy]

Yes - definitely the correct percentage play, in my view, which is not something you often see chosen properly in the heat of competition.

There are two to five minutes left, depending on the ref.

He sores the penalty. Estimated probability - 80% (though that may be generous). KK nearly certainly win.
He misses the penalty. Estimated probability - 20%. The momentum and psychological advantage are handed to Galway. Galway more likely than KK to win.
He takes the point. Estimated probability - 100% for all intents and purpose. The momentum and psychological advantage stay with KK, with a good chance of a win and a probable worst case outcome of a draw.

Hardy I think you have omitted one of the most likely outcomes - Henry goes for a goal and the ball is deflected for either for a point or a 65.  Either way a point is as good as given.

When this is factored in I reckon he didn't actually play the percentages at all.

That's a good point, Franko, that I confess I had overlooked. I'm not going to try and re-estimate the percentages, not least because I'm only guessing at penalty strike rates in general. The penalty strike rate for H. Shefflin is probably in a different book.