It's Time To Bet Like Men

[Collins]

Famously said about Shergar after romping home in the Sandown Classic Trial when he was still available at 8/1 for the Derby.

Now I'm saying it about Donegal to win Sam, available at 7/1 on exchanges and 6/1 with bookmakers.

This is a stupid drift in price.

Once they beat Kerry, which they will, and come up against a Cork side hurting after a bruising encounter with Geezer's men, Donegal will be at least half the price. They beat Cork, they win the final. Cork and Donegal are the two best teams in Ireland this year, no doubt.

Donegal brutalized us in Clones without playing above 50%. Granted we went gung-ho too early, but it was still scary how easily they disposed of us. Admittedly we're hardly the best side in Ireland but equally we're nowhere near the worst.

Donegal are a nasty, dirty, smart, cynical, tactically great, mostly negative side. In truth, I can't stand them. I'd almost support Armagh against them. I think they, along with the rule-makers, are doing their utmost to ruin the sport. But they will take some beating.

Kerry won't be up for the arm-wrestle. They've won their big game this year in beating a Tyrone side in transition at home. Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003. Watch how they'll handle Donaghy.

Cork is the one to worry about as they are a superb side and can match Donegal in the power running rugby league game McGuinness likes to play. Get past them and they'll probably play the Dubs, who simply haven't been as good this year as they were last, while Donegal have improved. The Dubs have won their AI, Donegal haven't. Hunger will be what separates them.

Even if Kerry do them by a point, I won't regret this bet. It's value. Get on.

[Hardy]

I came to the same conclusion and I'm on at 8.2.

[haranguerer]

18/1 

[Hardy]

Very good, Haranguerer. You can trade some of it at about 7/2, I'd say, after they beat Kerry.

[bigpaul]

Congratulations to all who are on at better odds, but I'd have to say Donegal at 6/1 don't jump out at me when they're possibly looking down the barrell of Kerry,Cork and Dublin on the road to winning an All-Ireland! When I saw the title of the topic, I thought the subject was going to be the Dubs,if they really have anything in them, back to back All-Irelands have really opened up at just about the most opportune time!!!!!

[yellowcard]

The 6/1 is no value. They will in all likelihood have to beat Kerry, Cork & Dublin and I'm guessing there respective odds in each of those 3 matches will be 5/4 (actual), 11/10 and evens which would equate to 8.5/1. If you fancy them to win all 3 its best to take this approach imo. If like me you fancy the superior footballers to come out on top on Sunday, ie Kerry, you will not back them. If Donegal defy logic and win it, this will be a major victory for systems over players and will give hope to every underdog that if they set up a defensive system and stick military like to a gameplan that anything is possible.

[Rossie11]

The 6/1 is no value. They will in all likelihood have to beat Kerry, Cork & Dublin and I'm guessing there respective odds in each of those 3 matches will be 5/4 (actual), 11/10 and evens which would equate to 8.5/1. If you fancy them to win all 3 its best to take this approach imo. If like me you fancy the superior footballers to come out on top on Sunday, ie Kerry, you will not back them. If Donegal defy logic and win it, this will be a major victory for systems over players and will give hope to every underdog that if they set up a defensive system and stick military like to a gameplan that anything is possible.

Totally agree. Worse case scenario (odds related) they will face Kerry Kildare and Mayo.
In that case they would be approx 5/4 10/11 and 4/5 to win each game
Thats still giving you close to 7/1 if you rolled over each winnings. Backing Donegal at 6/1 is crazy stuff and is a bookies dream.

[Ohtoohtobe]

Can't understand this Donegal bandwagon at all.
Kerry had the All-Ireland won with seven minutes to go and have lost one player from that team. They topped Division One of the league and are in serious form.
Donegal have achieved the precise total of fcuk all.
This reminds me of 2009 when Dublin were odds-on faves to beat Kerry in the quarters. I lumped on €200 on the Kingdom and my bet was safe after 42 seconds.
Kerry might not win by 17 points on Sunday, but I'd be shocked if they didn't win.
Kerry by five for me.

[Ohtoohtobe]

Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.

Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.

[neilthemac]

Are McFadden and Murphy fully fit?

If they are, and can stay that way, I'd give Donegal a great chance.

[Donnellys Hollow]

There was more juice in Frankel's price yesterday than there is in Donegal's price for the All-Ireland. Once you get to the last 8 any value in the outright winner market tends to be gone. It's hard to see any back-to-lay team at this stage this year either.

If you do really fancy a team to win the All-Ireland at this stage it is probably better to back a few of their main men coupled to win the POTY award at fancier prices.

[Captain Obvious]

Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.

Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.

Donegal should have won U21 All Ireland title in 2010 Murphy's missed penalty cost them however it's true Donegal aren't as good either are Kerry 2012 as good as Kerry in 2003.

[haranguerer]

Thats very lazy analysis to say if donegal win its a victory for system, bad for football etc. Its also a loada shite.

Last year donegal were very defensive, the problem most people had was that one of the best forwards in the game was playing out round the middle the whole time. Donegal are a different animal this year. I've no idea of the stats, but I'd say their defenders have scored more than anyone elses, corner backs banging in goals, and lacey scoring flat out. Its all action, not just defence. Its true ulster is on a dip, but it strikes me that donegal have by and large, particularly v tyrone, only done what they had to do.

You can say kerry had the ai won with 7 min to go, and thats true, but a donegal side that has come on leaps and bounds since last year should have beaten the eventual ai champions, so what of either of those statistics?

Lastly, in terms of betting, if donegal beat kerry, and cork struggled or were beaten by kildare (and I'll be betting on the kildare handicap [which in fairness is prob as good a reason as any to back cork], I don think you'd get 5/4 on dgal in the semi, nor will you get 5/4 on any team which comes out of this side of the draw, esp if dublin splutter a bit or are beaten. I dont care anyway, I've 18s, just saying 

DHs idea strikes me as a good one though

[haranguerer]

Donegal will drag them down into a bitter battle, reminiscent of Kerry vs Tyrone in 2003.

Donegal aren't as good as Tyrone 2003. That Tyrone side had won two All-Ireland minor and two All-Ireland U21 titles in the five years previous. Donegal have one Ulster U21 title in the past five years.

Donegal should have won U21 All Ireland title in 2010 Murphy's missed penalty cost them however it's true Donegal aren't as good either are Kerry 2012 as good as Kerry in 2003.

Donegal have a midfield however, Tyrone never had, and I feel Kerry have got away with theirs this last while

[Wildweasel74]

Kerry although on the slide, will still have too much for Donegal, game will be tight due to the way Donegal set up, but most of the best footballers will be wearing green and gold. its a matter if the hunger is there for it any more!! they were very poor up to the Tyrone  game, so what Kerry turns up will decide the game, Donegal have been very good all year so i expect the same again from them.