Man city 78
I have chelsea running away with it, with almost nothing between the other 5 teams.
One big win/loss against another of the top 6 could decide your fate
I'm willing to stand to be corrected but I don't think any team has ever needed more than 73 points to finish top 4, and that anything over 66 is usually enough.
Yet you reckon it'll take 77 points to finish top 5.
Can't see it myself. Not even close.
The Premier League has probably never had 6/7 teams as relatively closed matched, just caused 77 hasn't been needed before doesn't mean it wont be now after all no 5000/1 had won the league til last season either. Why don't you fill out the yoke then and see what you get it takes all of 30 secs
I did do it.
Chelsea win league with 86 or so.
Liverpool and Spurs have the easiest run-ins so will finish 2nd and 3rd in the mid to high 70s - though neither side can really afford injuries.
City will smash lower sides and lose the bigger matches to come in 4th.
Arsenal's usual 72-73 points will just be short.
United have a tough enough run-in and too many games against the other top 6-7 sides, all of which have better midfields, and will bottom out on 70 points.
The thing to remember, apart from injuries, is that playing a relegation battler in your last 6 games is tough... especially if the chance of winning a league is gone. That's why we rarely have 5 teams over 70.