The Race for the ARAS.....

Started by highorlow, May 31, 2011, 11:38:16 AM

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Who will be the next President of Ireland

Davis, Mary
4 (1.9%)
Gallagher, Sean
25 (12.1%)
Higgins, Michael D
58 (28.2%)
McGuinness, Martin
102 (49.5%)
Mitchell, Gay
3 (1.5%)
Norris, David
7 (3.4%)
Scallon, Dana Rosemary
7 (3.4%)

Total Members Voted: 206

Hardy

That's true. On the other hand, if John Hume had run, there would have been no contest, possibly literally. The same probably applies to Seamus Heaney. And that belies the perception expressed by some of our Northern contributors that there was an anti-Northern bias here during the campaign among the electorate and the media.

Maguire01

Quote from: Hardy on October 29, 2011, 04:42:15 PM
That's true. On the other hand, if John Hume had run, there would have been no contest, possibly literally. The same probably applies to Seamus Heaney. And that belies the perception expressed by some of our Northern contributors that there was an anti-Northern bias here during the campaign among the electorate and the media.
Agree 100%. Hume could well have topped 50% in first preferences. It was an anti-SF bias, not anti-Northern.

mayogodhelpus@gmail.com

Quote from: Maguire01 on October 29, 2011, 04:46:21 PM
Quote from: Hardy on October 29, 2011, 04:42:15 PM
That's true. On the other hand, if John Hume had run, there would have been no contest, possibly literally. The same probably applies to Seamus Heaney. And that belies the perception expressed by some of our Northern contributors that there was an anti-Northern bias here during the campaign among the electorate and the media.
Agree 100%. Hume could well have topped 50% in first preferences. It was an anti-SF bias, not anti-Northern.

Defo, John Hume was voted the greatest Irishman by RTE audiences last year. He is loved in the Republic and I am sure by alot in the North too.
Time to take a more chill-pill approach to life.

muppet

MWWSI 2017

ross4life

The key to success is to be consistently competitive -- if you bang on the door often it will open

Maguire01

Just looking at MMG's vote, of the 3.8% rise on SF's GE result, almost 1.2% can be attributed to the constituencies that SF didn't contest in February. Comparing like for like, it's a 2.6% increase. Which is hardly that impressive, having brought in the highest profile candidate possible.

You have to wonder how the likes of Mary Lou might have done in comparison. I wouldn't consider her Presidential material myself, but she has a relatively high profile, none of the baggage, and probably a better idea of the southern electorate.

Minder

Quote from: Maguire01 on October 29, 2011, 05:18:21 PM
Just looking at MMG's vote, of the 3.8% rise on SF's GE result, almost 1.2% can be attributed to the constituencies that SF didn't contest in February. Comparing like for like, it's a 2.6% increase. Which is hardly that impressive, having brought in the highest profile candidate possible.

You have to wonder how the likes of Mary Lou might have done in comparison. I wouldn't consider her Presidential material myself, but she has a relatively high profile, none of the baggage, and probably a better idea of the southern electorate.

It's a long way from the 11/4 McGuiness was a few weeks back to win it.
"When it's too tough for them, it's just right for us"

ross matt

#3487
It's finally over. Hopefully the media coverage of it will end by the weekend.

Michael D really won it by default. He is a long winded poet with a poor physical presence. Gallagher would have won it but for the intervention by McGuinness. I dont think McGuinness deserves any criticism for this nor do I think Gallagher deserves any sympathy. Had he told the thruth from a long way out he may have still won. The way he reacted suggested he had alot to hide and overall I found alot of his sound bytes fluffy and lacking substance. The shinners neither gained nor lost. Marty goes back to his day job offended because we didnt buy his peacemaker image. However in the future if they run more candidates without a past (like Doherty etc) they may build further. That being said he was still miles behind a found out FF bagman like Gallagher. It suggests FF are not dead and buried. Mitchell paid a price for taking on McGuinness before the others did and his cranky style didnt help him. But his low poll also suggests the honeymoon is over for FG whilst labour seem to be escaping the flak. If this continues either FF will resurface at the next election or the shinners will become the main opposition.

Dana as I said at the beginning was a joke and in fairness to her she didnt prove me wrong. Mary Davis seemed to sell herself very poorly as if she regretted running. I never bought in to the media love in with Norris. He was lucky to get back in and he can sell his result any way he wants but he was totally rejected by the electorate.

It back to harsh economic reality (not that it ever left) for the people of the republic.

Denn Forever

Would the spector of FF not follow her?  That she wasn't deemed good enough for FF might help though.

Quotebut she has a relatively high profile, none of the baggage, and probably a better idea of the southern electorate.

Didn't help the first time she went for election to the Dail and people don't seem to be able to warm to her.

O'Caolain would have a much higher profile but I could see people being put off by his vocal delivery.
I have more respect for a man
that says what he means and
means what he says...

mayogodhelpus@gmail.com

#3489
Quote from: Denn Forever on October 29, 2011, 05:41:50 PM
Would the spector of FF not follow her?  That she wasn't deemed good enough for FF might help though.

Quotebut she has a relatively high profile, none of the baggage, and probably a better idea of the southern electorate.

Didn't help the first time she went for election to the Dail and people don't seem to be able to warm to her.

O'Caolain would have a much higher profile but I could see people being put off by his vocal delivery.

I think O'Caolain is a very likeable chap, but Mary Lou is god-damn irritating in my opinion, she comes across quite smarmy.

Just quickly reflecting on what I just said, and it struck me that a much higher percentage of women from all parties and none in politics come across more irritating than their male counterparts. Am I being chauvinistic, or does politcs tend to attract a smaller spectrum of females than it does males?
Time to take a more chill-pill approach to life.

Rossfan

#3490
Quote from: ross matt on October 29, 2011, 05:37:33 PM
It's finally over. Hopefully the media coverage of it will end by the weekend.

. Mitchell paid a price for taking on McGuinness before the others did .

Dana as I said at the beginning was a joke and in fairness to her she didnt prove me wrong. Mary Davis seemed to sell herself very poorly as if she regretted running. I never bought in to the media love in with Norris. He was lucky to get back in and he can sell his result any way he wants but he was totally rejected by the electorate.


Still flying the Mitchell kite Matt  ;D trying to make him out to be a martyr or victim of SF .
Davis and Mitchell showed themselves in a very bad light today by not turning up at the final count announcement.
THey could at least have had the dacency and courtesy to turn up.
Great speech by Micilín D. and be nice to think we'd be moving to an Ireland that might value people before €€€€€€€€€€ but I'll believe it when I see it.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Maguire01

Quote from: Denn Forever on October 29, 2011, 05:41:50 PM
Quotebut she has a relatively high profile, none of the baggage, and probably a better idea of the southern electorate.

Didn't help the first time she went for election to the Dail and people don't seem to be able to warm to her.

O'Caolain would have a much higher profile but I could see people being put off by his vocal delivery.
Agreed, O'Caolain would probably have been a better option - Mary Lou still has something of a 'loser' tag, despite (just about) getting elected in February. O'Caolain would also have made sense in that it could well have incresed SF's chances of a second seat in Cavan/Monaghan next time around.

Speaking of that particular constituency, Gallagher, with 45% of the vote, would be a shoo-in as either an independent or a (second?) FF candidate next time around.

ross matt

Quote from: Rossfan on October 29, 2011, 05:51:02 PM
Quote from: ross matt on October 29, 2011, 05:37:33 PM
It's finally over. Hopefully the media coverage of it will end by the weekend.

. Mitchell paid a price for taking on McGuinness before the others did .

Dana as I said at the beginning was a joke and in fairness to her she didnt prove me wrong. Mary Davis seemed to sell herself very poorly as if she regretted running. I never bought in to the media love in with Norris. He was lucky to get back in and he can sell his result any way he wants but he was totally rejected by the electorate.


Still flying the Mitchell kite Matt  ;D trying to make him out to be a martyr or victim of SF .
Davis and Mitchell showed themselves in a very bad light today by not turning up at the final count announcement.
THey could at least have had the dacency and courtesy to turn up.
Great speech by Micilín D. and be nice to think we'd be moving to an Ireland that might value people before €€€€€€€€€€ but I'll believe it when I see it.

Dont fly any kite for Mitchell. Didnt vote for him either. Voted FG for the 1st time ever in the last general election. If you read my post you'll see I listed other reasons besides the shinners why he did so badly.

If you're having a go at me re the shinners or Mitchell based on something a provo apologist like Nally posted then all I can say is I'm a Rossie just like you. Except my heros are the likes of Gardai like Fergie O'Donnell, John Newton etc and real patriots like Dermot Early who was Chief of our army. I've also some close family members in the force. But unlike you I dont admire an dividual who was responsible for the deaths of their colleagues and in reality despises them and everything our republic stands for. Think about that before you tell someone alot older than you to "move on" again.

Main Street

Quote from: Maguire01 on October 29, 2011, 02:57:01 PM
Can't say I agree with the comments on Michael D winning 'by default' or simply being 'the best of a bad bunch'. True, it wasn't an exceptional field (who else should have been in there?), but I think he's a very credible winner in his own right and will make a very good President.
Winning by default in this case, means the voters flocked to Michael D after Gallagher imploded on Frontline. A large % of previously polled people stated they changed their minds from Gallagher to Michael D, after Frontline.  Previous to Frontline,  Michael D  was not that popular.
His strength was that in the event of both Norris and Gallagher imploding, he was seen to be a safe refuge.




Maguire01

Quote from: Main Street on October 29, 2011, 06:25:33 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on October 29, 2011, 02:57:01 PM
Can't say I agree with the comments on Michael D winning 'by default' or simply being 'the best of a bad bunch'. True, it wasn't an exceptional field (who else should have been in there?), but I think he's a very credible winner in his own right and will make a very good President.
Winning by default in this case, means the voters flocked to Michael D after Gallagher imploded on Frontline. A large % of previously polled people stated they changed their minds from Gallagher to Michael D, after Frontline.  Previous to Frontline,  Michael D  was not that popular.
His strength was that in the event of both Norris and Gallagher imploding, he was seen to be a safe refuge.
He had a much more solid core vote than any of the other candidates though. Whilst other candidates went up and down significantly, Michael D was steady throughout. And in the end, he won by a very significant margain.