Is the end of the Union in sight? (It may well be but then again…)

[maddog]

50% of Scotland's economy is public sector so I can't see them going for full independence any time soon unless the English boot them out.

Indeed. And that of Wales is even greater (approaching NI levels, as it happens).

Mind you at some stage the English will get fed up subsidising the rest of Great Britain plus the North and may pull the plug on the "United Kingdom" and set up their own independent State. :

The "English" have been pretty much subsidising the rest of the UK ever since its (UK) foundation in 1707.

Yet there is no sign, then or now, of any significant English Nationalist movement. On the contrary, when given the opportunity eg for regional councils in England, the English voted decisively to reject these.

To be quite honest, the only significant sign of discontent at economic imbalance comes from London and the South East, who grumble more about having to subsidise 25 million (unproductive) English people in the Midlands and North than they do about 10 million (unproductive) Scots/Welsh/NI.

But even then these complaints amount to nothing very much.

No, if you wish to provoke Nationalistic indignation in England about money down the drain etc, you only have to murmur the word "Europe", for the sparks to fly!

He was taking a cut at you there ziggy99

[lynchbhoy]

Holy Feck! Why oh Why does this have to come down to a base sum? The odds of Larne, Carrick, Lisburn, East Belfast etc etc accepting a crude sum is NIL! We will have partition re-drawn to ensure that Unionism survives .. at the best / worst case we will have a 'Northern Ireland' the size of Jersey based in south-east Antrim and North Down - this is a nonsense to believe that the 32 is on the cards. That lesson was learnt in 1922.

the point being missed by most is that a reunification will be pushed not by the Irish, but by the british.
the biggest supporters of a reunification wil lbe Irish republicans and their previous enemies - the British gov - who want to get rid of the millstone of the north from their hands.
The population swing will happen. However, will the brit gov engage in their infamous 'dirty tricks' to manipulate things again?
ie taking jobs back to blighty, God knows what else they can and would do - as they were liable to do anything in the past (including killing ) to maintain the status quo !
Anything they can think of to halp quicken the referendum - they will do it.
I am sure the 'lost voters' the apathetic nationalists and those that have moved south, will head back up the road again for such a referendum.
then it will be up to the southern voters and the Irish Gov to see what changes they can and will make to integrate and thus appease those looking to maintain their same benefits/health system etc.

So to summarise: You can't rely on Republicanism (by ballot or bullet) to deliver a UI. Nor can you rely on the Unionists to concede or acquiesce. And you certainly can't depend on those treacherous b a s t ards in the Free State to "help you over the line", either.

Therefore your "cunning plan" for a United Ireland essentially boils down to waiting for the Brits  to deliver. And not only that, but they will also provide a nice wee dowry, to sweeten the deal.

Tell me, Lynchbhoy, have you ever thought of writing a letter to Santa? 

the brits are and will be the main agitator for this.
the republicans/nationalists/Irish will get this when the majority swings and the southern gov kicks in with budgetary changes - on the back of a huge pile of cash from british gov for jettisoning the north (payable over a number of years).

you can try to stick your head in the sand all you like, you know what I have written is no lie.

its your own problem that you just want to deny that there will be reunification.
same type of unionist mentality that wanted to deny nationalists votes,civil rights etc
the never never never mentality never changes.
However your old muckers the brits will switch sides and sell you down the river in the not too distant future ! 

[lynchbhoy]

50% of Scotland's economy is public sector so I can't see them going for full independence any time soon unless the English boot them out.
Mind you at some stage the English will get fed up subsidising the rest of Great Britain plus the North and may pull the plug on the "United Kingdom" and set up their own independent State. :

Good point. If the school of thought that the English (the overwhelming constituent nationality of the UK) want rid of the North is correct, what's to stop THEM seceding from the Union, especially under a Conservative government, who would doubtless be happy getting rid of the troublesome, non-Tory-voting Scots in the process, now that the oil is about to stop flowing? (What about the Welsh? Well, exactly.)

Except that since the bombs stopped going off in London and squaddies stopped dying in Londonderry etc, NI has ceased to play any significant part in English thinking.

That is, I guess that if you asked the average English person about NI, they would mumble something about "giving it back etc", but if you then pointed out that that would be contrary to the GFA etc, then they would be likely to reply "Oh, well, I suppose that that's that, then" (or somesuch).

In other words, NI barely figures on the political radar much more highly than eg Shetland, Gibraltar or the Falklands. Or Wales 

And as regards the English political establishment  (as opposed to the English electorate), the notion of divesting the UK of NI would be completely contrary in principle to their desire to keep Scotland and Wales within the UK (as well as illegal).

Besides, most of the English political establishment is Scottish, anyway!

are you deliberately missing the point- the English need cash as much as everyone sles. Paying huge sums to subsidise the north and even worse to subsidise the military presence etc in the north is costing them a fortune - they all know about this and all want to get rid of this money pit !

[Evil Genius]

Is that flag not redundant?

No.

Northern where?

Northern Ireland.

How come Robinson cant bring himself to say IRELAND and says ALLEN/ALIN instead?

No idea.

I wonder does he call Scotland, Scotlin or Iceland, Icelin

Why don't you ask him?

P.S. After winning the prize for the "Most Bigoted Post on this Thread" (#19), are you now aiming for the "Most Brainless and Irrelevant Post on this Thread"? Because if you are, I warn you, you face pretty stiff competition...

[Evil Genius]

It's happening already. David Jeffrey, the Linfield supremo, said last week that Linfield was one of the best run clubs on the Island of Ireland. The drip drip is working.

And you would heed the opinion of this p r ick?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUzKkm1j9DY

[Evil Genius]

England has been content to subsidise the rest of the UK as long as military uniforms continued to be filled  down through the years & strategic defence positions/locations were occupied by friends and not foes.

Whatever the reasons behind it, the Union has now existed for over 300 years.

How many other countries may say that?

[Evil Genius]

Just watching Tom Elliot on TV now. With the Union in the hands of men of his calibre there has to be hope for the future. 

Have you learned nothing  from this thread?

The Union is in the hands of the electorate of NI.

Whether Tom Elliott is returned to Stormont or not makes no difference to that fact.

Still, I suppose I should be grateful that you have changed your tack from citing entirely specious statistics about birth rates and school rolls etc...

[Evil Genius]

the brits are and will be the main agitator for this.

"So let me repeat the pledge I made to you in Belfast a year and a half ago. I will never be neutral on our Union. We passionately believe that England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are stronger together, weaker apart"  - David Cameron* speaking in Northern Ireland, May 4th, 2010.

* - He's the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, in case it had slipped by you...

the republicans/nationalists/Irish will get this when the majority swings

"... when the majority swings" Why not go down to your local kiddies' play park? You'll find plenty of swings there. And if you engage them in conversation, you should learn something, too...

... and the southern gov kicks in with budgetary changes

Er, don't you mean the German  Government? 

... on the back of a huge pile of cash from british gov for jettisoning the north (payable over a number of years).

"A huge pile of cash"?
Let me get this straight. The (perfidious) Brits resent paying for NI when it is part of the UK, but will happily pay out bundles when it isn't.
Aye, that figures. 

you can try to stick your head in the sand all you like, you know what I have written is no lie.

I wouldn't say it's a "lie", because you have repeated it so often that I accept that you genuinely believe it.
Therefore it is a delusion.
You really shouldn't have stopped taking your medication.

its your own problem that you just want to deny that there will be reunification.

I do not claim that there will never  be "reunification" [sic].
Rather, I believe that there is no realistic prospect of a single Irish state in the foreseeable future.
Beyond that, I cannot tell, because it is, er, unforeseeable...

same type of unionist mentality that wanted to deny nationalists votes,civil rights etc

I have never denied any Nationalist anything. How old do you think I am?

the never never never mentality never changes.

With your deluded fantasies about Brits waving wads of cash for Irish Republicans etc, you are the one who is living in "Neverland":
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-530257/Tumbledown-abandoned-The-ruins-Michael-Jacksons-Neverland.html

However your old muckers the brits will switch sides and sell you down the river in the not too distant future ! 

I'll take my chances with this, thank you very much:
1. The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will:
(i) recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland; - Good Friday Agreement ( http://www.nio.gov.uk/agreement.pdf )

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

England has been content to subsidise the rest of the UK as long as military uniforms continued to be filled  down through the years & strategic defence positions/locations were occupied by friends and not foes.

Whatever the reasons behind it, the Union has now existed for over 300 years.

How many other countries may say that?

The current United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is no older than the Irish Republic, which is the Irish Free State with constitutional changes. The country called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the one whose official name is Ireland or Éire are the same age. In fact they are more or less twins, born at the same time. The 1801 Union failed. My passport proves that 

Your Union is the 1922 Union 

[Evil Genius]

are you deliberately missing the point- the English need cash as much as everyone sles. Paying huge sums to subsidise the north...

The "English" [sic] are not paying "huge sums" to subsidise "the north" [sic].
NI accounts for barely 3% of the UK population. Even if the Exchequer were paying twice what it pays for people in GB (it doesn't) and NI were paying nothing itself (it does), the difference would still only amount to 3% of the total budget.
This is approximately what the UK pays eg in Overseas Aid, far less than it pays eg to the EU and a drop in the ocean compared to what it pays eg for Social Security.
And even then, they will be cutting the NI budget over the next few years. 

... and even worse to subsidise the military presence etc in the north is costing them a fortune - they all know about this and all want to get rid of this money pit !

Are you for real?
Since the end of Operation Banner in 2007, here are the "cash outturn" figures for British military spending in NI. We may assume that this significant reduction reflects total MOD spending in NI - and that's before we factor in the return from selling off redundant Military Bases etc:
2006/7 - £389m
2007/8 -  £232m
2008/9 - £131m
2009/10 - £114m
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2010-06-09a.49.0

Meanwhile, the removal of British troops from the streets and fields of NI leaves them available to be redeployed elsewhere, as here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXJqVXcpSWc
This is widely appreciated throughout the Kingdom:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-13248078

[Evil Genius]

England has been content to subsidise the rest of the UK as long as military uniforms continued to be filled  down through the years & strategic defence positions/locations were occupied by friends and not foes.

Whatever the reasons behind it, the Union has now existed for over 300 years.

How many other countries may say that?

The current United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is no older than the Irish Republic, which is the Irish Free State with constitutional changes. The country called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the one whose official name is Ireland or Éire are the same age. In fact they are more or less twins, born at the same time. The 1801 Union failed. My passport proves that 

Your Union is the 1922 Union 

No, "my" Union dates back unbroken to 1801. The fact that another part  of the Union opted to break away 120 years later does not alter that.

As for your Passport, how long before it expires? Maybe you might be advised to renew it early, since I'm sure you won't be wanting the new version which you'll be getting before long, mein Herr:

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

England has been content to subsidise the rest of the UK as long as military uniforms continued to be filled  down through the years & strategic defence positions/locations were occupied by friends and not foes.

Whatever the reasons behind it, the Union has now existed for over 300 years.

How many other countries may say that?

The current United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is no older than the Irish Republic, which is the Irish Free State with constitutional changes. The country called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the one whose official name is Ireland or Éire are the same age. In fact they are more or less twins, born at the same time. The 1801 Union failed. My passport proves that 

Your Union is the 1922 Union 

No, "my" Union dates back unbroken to 1801. The fact that another part  of the Union opted to break away 120 years later does not alter that.

As for your Passport, how long before it expires? Maybe you might be advised to renew it early, since I'm sure you won't be wanting the new version which you'll be getting before long, mein Herr:

No it does not, both regions of Ireland left the Union, even the North for a very short period.

I'd rather have a German passport than one of these



The U.K. = The U.S.A. lapdog. The British Armed forces are little more than a Mercenary servant of the United States of America's Empire.



Give me Berlin over Boston or Munich over Manhatten anyday. We serve neither King nor Kaiser, but sure the Kaiser is long dead.

1922 Union, FACT. After huge territorial losses to my country. In fact ye probably lost as much territory as the Germans after WW1, OUCH.

[lynchbhoy]

the brits are and will be the main agitator for this.

"So let me repeat the pledge I made to you in Belfast a year and a half ago. I will never be neutral on our Union. We passionately believe that England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are stronger together, weaker apart"  - David Cameron* speaking in Northern Ireland, May 4th, 2010.

* - He's the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, in case it had slipped by you...

the republicans/nationalists/Irish will get this when the majority swings

"... when the majority swings" Why not go down to your local kiddies' play park? You'll find plenty of swings there. And if you engage them in conversation, you should learn something, too...

... and the southern gov kicks in with budgetary changes

Er, don't you mean the German  Government? 

... on the back of a huge pile of cash from british gov for jettisoning the north (payable over a number of years).

"A huge pile of cash"?
Let me get this straight. The (perfidious) Brits resent paying for NI when it is part of the UK, but will happily pay out bundles when it isn't.
Aye, that figures. 

you can try to stick your head in the sand all you like, you know what I have written is no lie.

I wouldn't say it's a "lie", because you have repeated it so often that I accept that you genuinely believe it.
Therefore it is a delusion.
You really shouldn't have stopped taking your medication.

its your own problem that you just want to deny that there will be reunification.

I do not claim that there will never  be "reunification" [sic].
Rather, I believe that there is no realistic prospect of a single Irish state in the foreseeable future.
Beyond that, I cannot tell, because it is, er, unforeseeable...

same type of unionist mentality that wanted to deny nationalists votes,civil rights etc

I have never denied any Nationalist anything. How old do you think I am?

the never never never mentality never changes.

With your deluded fantasies about Brits waving wads of cash for Irish Republicans etc, you are the one who is living in "Neverland":
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-530257/Tumbledown-abandoned-The-ruins-Michael-Jacksons-Neverland.html

However your old muckers the brits will switch sides and sell you down the river in the not too distant future ! 

I'll take my chances with this, thank you very much:
1. The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will:
(i) recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland; - Good Friday Agreement ( http://www.nio.gov.uk/agreement.pdf )

yawn
you can quote cameron all youlike on his PR stunt. Its well known that the suits in Gov and civil service want to jettison the money pit of the north as soon as possible.
Our Irish gov still run the show. the banks are the only thing holding us back down presently- exports and internal indsutry ar eup !
your little jibes may amuse you, but hardly of any use in your mission to show why there wont be a reunification - or are you going to flip-flop again !!

when countries leave an occupied jurastiction- eg germany, japan, hong kng etc - they have to pay for the upkeep for a number or years.
Thie payment will be less than their usual annual spend, but it is the sweetner that enables these 'transactions' to happen.
If you didnt know that, then you really dont know what happens in reality in this world - what we mostly knew for a good while now !!

[Evil Genius]

No it does not, both regions of Ireland left the Union, even the North for a very short period.

Well that just have been a shock to my parents, both of whom were born before 1921 (just), but never noticed any difference.
In any case, they managed to survive somehow, before going on to consumate their greatest achievement...

I'd rather have a German passport than one of these

German Passport, Irish Passport, what's the difference? Each is liable to see you whipped by the Brits when the time comes 

The U.K. = The U.S.A. lapdog. The British Armed forces are little more than a Mercenary servant of the United States of America's Empire.

Oi! Less of the Cheek - or we'll demand our £7 billion back:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/22/ireland-bailout-uk-lends-seven-billion

Btw, Osborne is part of the old Anglo-Irish aristocracy, known in Ireland as the Ascendancy. He is the heir to the Osborne baronetcy (of Ballentaylor, in County Tipperary, and Ballylemon, in County Waterford). And you thought you had got rid of the Landlords in 1921... 

Give me Berlin over Boston or Munich over Manhatten anyday. We serve neither King nor Kaiser, but sure the Kaiser is long dead.

Where's your Irish Spirit, eh?
"Geographically we are closer to Berlin than Boston. Spiritually we are probably a lot closer to Boston than Berlin.
http://www.deti.ie/press/2000/210700.htm

Anyhow, the Kaiser's Dead, as you say, whilst the Queen Lives On - as you'll get to see for yourself, soon enough:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13003898

Btw, I have some of this left over from the Royal Wedding that I can let you have...
http://www.partydelights.co.uk/confirmitem.asp?ProductID=ENGLUJBAN

1922 Union, FACT. After huge territorial losses to my country. In fact ye probably lost as much territory as the Germans after WW1, OUCH.

You're in no position to be laughing about "loss of territory". Or have you forgotten about this?
'the national territory consists of the whole island of Ireland' - The late, but unlamented, Article 2...

[Evil Genius]

you can quote cameron all youlike on his PR stunt.

I can quote Political Leaders. I can cite the Election Results, I can quote the Law, I can cite Historical Precedent and Economic Fact.
Meanwhile you can quote/cite precisely Nothing (bar the deluded ramblings of your own fevered imagination).
Are you really so thick-skinned that you don't realise when your arse is being kicked? 

Its well known that the suits in Gov and civil service want to jettison the money pit of the north as soon as possible.

Those would be the self-same "suits" whose last major action over NI was to draft, enact and sign into Law the GFA, which took NI's right to self-determination out of their ("suits") hands and placed it firmly in the hands of the NI electorate?
Waken up, man - you've had 13 years to get used to it!

Our Irish gov still run the show. the banks are the only thing holding us back down presently - exports and internal indsutry ar eup !

Nurse! Nurse! He's got out again...

your little jibes may amuse you, but hardly of any use in your mission to show why there wont be a reunification - or are you going to flip-flop again !!

No flip-flop from me. I have never denied the possibility of a UI at some stage in future, since I lack the Power of Prophecy.
All I have said is that in my considered opinion, there is no sign whatever of any such thing, either imminently, or in the foreseeable future. And I have quoted the electoral results to back up my thesis, electoral results which you have notably failed even to ackowledge, never mind address.
Which is quite enough for me.

when countries leave an occupied jurastiction- eg germany, japan, hong kng etc - they have to pay for the upkeep for a number or years.
Thie payment will be less than their usual annual spend, but it is the sweetner that enables these 'transactions' to happen.
If you didnt know that, then you really dont know what happens in reality in this world - what we mostly knew for a good while now !!

More drivel. To take your three examples, it was the Americans,  not the British, who pumped money into (West) Germany and Japan after WWII. And they only did so in order to prevent them going Communist - hardly a fate likely to befall any part of ireland anytime soon!
As for Hong Kong, the British didn't pay a single penny to the Chinese after they left; rather we repatriated everything of worth well in advance of the 1997 handover, most notably:
"HSBC Holdings plc established in 1990 became the parent company to The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation in preparation for its purchase of Midland Bank in the United Kingdom and restructuring of ownership domicile for the impending transfer of sovereignty of Hong Kong to China. HSBC Holdings acquisition of Midland Bank gave HSBC Group a substantial market presence in the United Kingdom which was completed in 1992. As part of the takeover conditions for the purchase of Midland Bank, HSBC Holdings plc was required to relocate its world headquarters from Hong Kong to London in 1993"

And as with HK, so it was with virtually all of our former colonies. For providing a "dowry" would have cost money which we preferred to spend within the UK, including NI.

But hey, none of that really counts (or even happened?), since you're Lynchbhoy and all it takes for something you want to happen, is for you to say it will...