United Ireland

[Jim_Murphy_74]

bit of a contradiction in terms going on there maguire, over 60% say they "think" they are republicans yet they dont seem to have a problem with the queen visiting ireland as a head of state. republics have democratically elected presidents not queens. sinn fein want a democratic republic of ireland (32) run for the people by the people not the queen or the banks. its hard to get that message across

Presumably as republicans (thinking or being?) these folk want to have democratically elected head of state but may not have the arrogance to tell other states that they must be republican too.  I mean why should an irish person tell a swedish, british, spanish or dutch citizens what system of government they should have.

I worked for a time in Sweden and was struck how Swedish republicans (they do exist) railed against the "undemocratic monarch" continually but refused to accept their own democratic failure to win any electoral support.

/Jim.

[Maguire01]

Didn't see any comments here on the latest 'Life & Times' survey. It has been all over the media today.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2010/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

Support for a United Ireland at 16% - 33% for Catholics surveyed.

[Applesisapples]

When you look at the numbers it would have been about 300 people surveyed. I've stated before that a 32 County Republic is unlikely to happen. It all depends what type of question is asked.

[Minder]

When you look at the numbers it would have been about 300 people surveyed. I've stated before that a 32 County Republic is unlikely to happen. It all depends what type of question is asked.

Just over 2000, with 600 "refusing to co-operate".

[Maguire01]

I'm no expert on these surveys, but I understand that it's a statistically valid sample. Even the standard 'margin of error' wouldn't change much.

[dec]

Here are the results for political party preference. It doesn't quite match election results.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2010/Political_Attitudes/POLPART2.html

Political Party support

Which of these political parties do you feel closest to?

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)   18
Sinn Fein   11
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)   16
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)   17
Alliance Party   10
Other Party   3
None of these   21
Other answer   2
Don't know   2

[glens abu]

Didn't see any comments here on the latest 'Life & Times' survey. It has been all over the media today.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2010/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

Support for a United Ireland at 16% - 33% for Catholics surveyed.

sure it has to be a load of balls going by the vote Sinn fein got a few weeks ago,and I am sure at least half of those who vote for the stoops want a UI as well.16% dont think so.

[Maguire01]

Here are the results for political party preference. It doesn't quite match election results.

Indeed it doesn't. A couple of things come into play - firstly there's the 'margin of error' could account for a few percent. Secondly, and probably more significantly, is that this is likely to include people who don't (and didn't) vote. 25% responded 'none of these', 'other answer' or 'don't know' when asked for their 'political party preference'.

[LeoMc]

You also have to take into account that when it comes to elections SF are traditionally very good at mobilising their voters, the UUP much less so.

[Maguire01]

Didn't see any comments here on the latest 'Life & Times' survey. It has been all over the media today.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2010/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

Support for a United Ireland at 16% - 33% for Catholics surveyed.

sure it has to be a load of balls going by the vote Sinn fein got a few weeks ago,and I am sure at least half of those who vote for the stoops want a UI as well.16% dont think so.

Did you hear Barry McElduff on Talkback? Got very excited in general, but especially by the Mid Ulster caller who said he voted Sinn Féin but did not want a United Ireland. Barry even questioned the validity of the call.

The reality is that 100% of SF voters will not vote for a United Ireland. Some people may well vote for SF now because they feel they represent them well for local issues, even though they might have no big interest in seeing a United Ireland.

[Eamonnca1]

I've skimmed the thread quickly, forgive me if I cover over some old ground.

1 - Someone asked the question of why anyone would want a monarchy. The Brits seem happy with theirs. Its popularity rises and falls over time but in general it remains popular enough that it continues to endure. Some people point to the value of maintaining tradition and having someone as head of state who spends their whole life being groomed for the position so that they're well qualified for it by the time they take it. There are disadvantages too of course, and personally I think it's better if power is vested in the people rather than an old institution like the Crown which takes its authority from the invisible man in the sky.

2 - EG tells Sligoman that his opinion doesn't count. Actually it does. The GFA says that Irish unity has to happen if the majority in the north want it AND if a majority in the south agree to it.  Which brings me to ...

3 - Nationalism has an uphill task convincing a majority in the north of the value of its case, but it should not neglect the same job in the south as well since it is every bit as important that a majority on that side of the border is on board.

4 - The Troubles have driven a wedge between the communities in the north and it's going to take a long time to heal those divisions.  So I don't know why people keep asking what would happen if a border poll were held tomorrow or why SF are talking about pushing for one to be held soon, we all know what'd happen. The vote would be overwhelmingly in favour of the status quo.

You see here's my problem with partition. It created a state in the south in which the catholic church had too much influence, and a state in the north in which the protestant/unionist establishment got too big for its boots and wasn't kept in line. Result? An abusive catholic-dominated regime in the south in which catholics and protestants got a raw deal, and an abusive protestant dominated regime in the north in which catholics got a raw deal.

Hardly a roaring success, this partition business, wouldn't you say?

[armaghniac]

In any sort of longer term persepective why on Earth would a SF voter not want a UI? Was he a smuggler?

[Maguire01]

You see here's my problem with partition. It created a state in the south in which the catholic church had too much influence, and a state in the north in which the protestant/unionist establishment got too big for its boots and wasn't kept in line. Result? An abusive catholic-dominated regime in the south in which catholics and protestants got a raw deal, and an abusive protestant dominated regime in the north in which catholics got a raw deal.

Hardly a roaring success, this partition business, wouldn't you say?

It wasn't. It was a disaster in most respects. But those main issues are largely settled now.

[Eamonnca1]

Now there are those who say that catholics and protestants in Ireland cannot live together, therefore they must be kept apart. But we all know that A this is not true (they do live together quite easily in the south and in many mixed areas in the north) and B even if it were true (which it isn't) it wouldn't be practical. You cannot keep on partitioning people off from each other whether when they're so intermingled whether it's behind "peace" lines or artificial international borders.  They're going to have to come out from their little cliques, get out there and mingle, and achieve reconciliation sooner or later, preferably sooner.

Now one of the biggest obstacles to reconciliation is the elephant in the living room that brings out the denial merchants in droves every time it's mentioned: Segregated education.

(I can almost hear the chants of "integrated education isn't a panacea for all of our troubles here therefore it shouldn't be attempted" and "catholic schools do a good job of teaching respect for these other children that the pupils hardly ever meet" already.)

There was a survey carried out recently showing that 88% of parents in Northern Ireland would send their children to an integrated school, but the special interests (namely the catholic church) still remain the biggest obstacle to its implementation.  Peter Robinson recently made a  statement of what I thought was the obvious, that the catholic church's own education system should not be funded by the taxpayer. SF and the SDLP jumped down his throat and questioned his motives. 

As long as children grow up separately then this sense of "two communities" is just going to get more and more reinforced.

It's in the interests of nationalist parties to achieve reconciliation in the north since that's part of the only viable pathway to a united Ireland.  Nationalist parties should be at the forefront of the fight to achieve mixed schooling, not opposed to it.  This is particularly more pressing if that survey is anything to go by and public support for integrated schools is as high as it seems to be.

[Maguire01]

In any sort of longer term persepective why on Earth would a SF voter not want a UI? Was he a smuggler?

As i've said, because they might be seen to be useful in dealing with local issues.

The fact is that the current arrangements with the Assembly are actually making 'Northern Ireland' work for a lot of people. Most people probably aren't terribly politically motivated and are quite happy as long as there's stability. I'd imagine the current stability would be a contributor to the fall in desire for a major constitutional upheaval and the level of instability that would bring.

Note that whilst 54% of the Catholic respondants to the survey described themselves as Nationalists (45% described themselves as neither Nationalists or Unionists), only 33% wanted a United Ireland. That leaves 21% apparently describing themselves as Nationalists, but content with the current constitutional position. The current political settlement has given a lot of nationalists the rights and recognitions they didn't have for so long and probably thought they never would have under partition. For some, that's clearly enough.