six county elections 05/05/2011

[Tony Baloney]

I maybe wrong but was there not something a year or two back saying we were about to get finned by the EU for not upholding some Charter for the protection of minority languages?

Who pays for this? http://conventions.coe.int/Treaty/EN/Treaties/html/148.htm

[armaghniac]

Any chance you could supply me the figures to back up your assertion earlier in this thread that a "disproportionate" number of Alliance voters transfer to Nationalists, rather than Unionists?

I am not Ulick, never met the man (or lady), but this is getting on my wick.

Anna Lo's surplus from South Belfast

SDLP                  -39.9%
SF                  -4.9%
UU                  -21.5%
DUP                  -7.9%
Green (NI)               -19.0%
People Before Profit         -3.5%

Nationalists -44.8%
Unionists -29.4%
Neither -22.5%

[Nally Stand]

Any chance you could supply me the figures to back up your assertion earlier in this thread that a "disproportionate" number of Alliance voters transfer to Nationalists, rather than Unionists?

I am not Ulick, never met the man (or lady), but this is getting on my wick.

Anna Lo's surplus from South Belfast

SDLP                  -39.9%
SF                  -4.9%
UU                  -21.5%
DUP                  -7.9%
Green (NI)               -19.0%
People Before Profit         -3.5%

Nationalists -44.8%
Unionists -29.4%
Neither -22.5%

Queue a half page of waffle and quotes from EG....

[Evil Genius]

Queue a half page of waffle and quotes from EG....

No, I need only point out that Anna Lo was only one AP candidate and South Belfast only one constituency.

Donagh's Ulick claim referred to Alliance voters in totality.

[armaghniac]

No, I need only point out that Anna Lo was only one AP candidate and South Belfast only one constituency.

Mind you a constituency where Alliance are strong.
But if you want to post some other data then we all await with bated breath.

[Ulick]

 

That is a perfect example of why its pointless even trying to engage with that idiot. A complete waste of time.

[Evil Genius]

No, I need only point out that Anna Lo was only one AP candidate and South Belfast only one constituency.

Mind you a constituency where Alliance are strong.
But if you want to post some other data then we all await with bated breath.

You asked for it...

In Upper Bann, Hamilton's transfers went 35% to SDLP/SF, and 65% to UUP/DUP.

In North Antrim, Dunlop's transfers went 39.7% to SDLP/SF and 60.3% to UUP/DUP/TUV

Or in East Londonderry, Fitzpatrick's went 40.0% to SDLP/SF and 60.0% to UUP/DUP/Ind.U

Even in South Down, Griffin's transfers only went 54% to SDLP/SF, 46% to UUP/DUP/UKIP, despite the Constituency being 66.7% Nationalist, 28.6% Unionist and 4.7% Other.

Or if I really wanted to follow your lead and extrapolate from a single set of figures in order to give a totally misleading impression, I could refer to North Belfast, where 100% of Webb's transfers went to UUP/DUP! 

And what would this, or your citing of South Belfast's transfers prove? Actually, due to the idiosyncracies of PR; the individual characteristics of certain Constituencies; and the influence of personal votes (eg O'Donnell in S.Belfast), it proves nothing.

Therefore unless you have more detailed statistics available than me ( www.eoni.org.uk/index/elections/election-2011/assembly-election-results-by-stage.htm ), then you simply cannot state that Alliance Voters transfer disproportionatley to Nationalist Parties over Unionist Parties.

However, there is one* thing we can say with certainty. In the 7 Constituencies with a Nationalist majority, the average Alliance share of the 1st Preference votes was 1.5%. In the 11 Contituencies with a Unionist majority, the Alliance share of 1st Preference votes was 12.5% i.e. over eight times higher.

Therefore, I can confidently conclude Alliance voters are far more likely to come from a Unionist background than from a Nationalist one.

That being the case, it is highly unlikely that Alliance voters will distribute their preferences disproportionately to Nationalist candidates over Unionist ones. In fact if anything, logic would dictate that the opposite  is the case.


* - I can't prove it, but from eyeballing the figures, I would be prepared to bet that SF are the least "transfer-friendly" of the six major Parties...

[Evil Genius]

That is a perfect example of why its pointless even trying to engage with that idiot. A complete waste of time.

No, in trying to draw a general conclusion from a single set of figures, Armaghniac has shown himself to be the "idiot" (see my post #653).

However, by simply making things up, then refusing even to acknowledge it when caught out, you  have been shown to be something rather worse. 

Perhaps it's time for you to withdraw from the Board for a while?

After all, you could always come back again under a new User Name, eh Donagh Ulick? 

[The Worker]

That is a perfect example of why its pointless even trying to engage with that idiot. A complete waste of time.

No, in trying to draw a general conclusion from a single set of figures, Armaghniac has shown himself to be the "idiot" (see my post #653).

However, by simply making things up, then refusing even to acknowledge it when caught out, you  have been shown to be something rather worse. 

Perhaps it's time for you to withdraw from the Board for a while?

After all, you could always come back again under a new User Name, eh Donagh Ulick? 

whats the craic with the donagh strikethrough? its getting a little tiresome at this stage

[Ulick]

whats the craic with the donagh strikethrough? its getting a little tiresome at this stage

Is he still doing it? I hadn't noticed 

[Tony Baloney]

What happened that Donagh chap anyway?

[armaghniac]

You asked for it...

I did, and thanks for finding the election office link.

No, in trying to draw a general conclusion from a single set of figures, Armaghniac has shown himself to be the "idiot" (see my post #653).

I didn't make a strong statement on this. I merely chose the constituency with the largest Alliance vote as my example, when you came along with "evidence" it was the transfers of candidates who got less than half the vote of Anna Lo. In South Down Ritchie might have picked up transfers but was already elected when the the Alliance candidate was eliminated. My own feeling is that both of you are overstating things and Alliance are pretty much in the middle. A good deal more analysis is needed to make a stronger statement.

But if you can confidently conclude Alliance voters are far more likely to come from a Unionist background, I worry a bit if I wanted the union to continue. These people are now in the willing to talk about it camp and history is (fortunately) trending in only one direction.

[Gaffer]

whats the craic with the donagh strikethrough? its getting a little tiresome at this stage

Is he still doing it? I hadn't noticed 

Yea right, we believe ye!

[Ulick]

It's a sure sign of insecurity that our unionist brothers are now so desperate to tell us that Alliance are unionist, despite the official AP line and the great efforts of their members to convince us that they're not. At the end of the day it doesn't matter a jot. As their transfers show, they are soft on the national question and open to persuasion. Given that the "unionist majority" is now a thing of the past and the AP now hold the balance in our current plurality, I suppose they have reason to be insecure. The northern state is inevitably going the same way as Belfast. It took only 14 years since the unionists lost their majority until the nationalists overtook them on the council. Factor in the soft AP vote and the NI state has about 15-20 years left, max.

As for Donagh, he caught a ride to Tír na nÓg with aintín Naimh on a magical horse. This is him squaring up to a giant rooster:

[Oraisteach]

Now, Ulick, if you can guarantee me 20 yrs max, I'm off to Tir na N'Og myself, and I'll hang around to see it. 

Sure, didn't I wait 47 for Armagh to lift Sam.  Do you think Kieran McGeeney could lift Peter Robinson over his head, and say, "Sin e"?