Election 2011 Offical Thread.

Started by An Gaeilgoir, November 22, 2010, 11:56:34 AM

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Who will you vote for?

FF
FG
LAB
SF
Others
Greens
Not going to Vote
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ballinaman

#1155
February 25, 2011, 12:47:45 AM Last Edit: February 25, 2011, 01:58:24 AM by ballinaman

AZOffaly

#1158
February 25, 2011, 12:15:06 PM
The penultimate (thank God for that says ye) predictions of the GAA Board jury. (Or those who bothered/could find the polls). 139 seats predicted with just 6 south Dublin constituencies left. (I'll post them up this evening).

So far a tally of 70 would give you an overall majority, but it looks like we are predicting that will not happen. For us, SF have overtaken FF to be the second largest party. That fact alone makes me thing the SF supporters are very optimistic :D. It also is interesting though, that we are predicting Labour to finish behind FF in seats so far.

Fine Gael - 54
Sinn Fein - 26
Fianna Fail - 25
Labour - 22
Others - 9
ULA - 2
Greens - 1



The North Dublin predictions are:




Poc me

#1159
February 25, 2011, 01:39:30 PM
To be hoenst i wouldn't be surprised it FF get more seats that Labour. People are full of anger etc in public and still vote FF, sure they';ve gained a bit of resurgence in the past few polls and Labour are waning just a bit.

SF realistically will do well to get 12.

Lar Naparka

#1160
February 25, 2011, 01:56:11 PM
As I looked through the list of candidates for this and the other constituencies AZ has posted here, one thought in particular struck me.
The ones most  likely  to lose their seats are the ones least responsible for the mess we are in. For example, take Barry Andrews in this one. From what I hear from supporters and opponents alike, he is a sincere and hard-working individual but seems very likely to lose his seat today.
Hopefully,Hanafin will not make it either but she will certainly out poll him. She has a fighting chance even through she played her part in bringing the country to its knees. If there is to be a FF seat here, it should go to Andrews in all fairness.
Things are similar in Donegall South East, where Sweary Mary is well ahead of Brian Ó DOMHNAILL in the polls. If there choice were mine and FF had to be given a seat here, Ó Domhnaill would be miles ahead of the foul-mouthed second in command of the shower of gobshites we are going to dump today.
Out in Dublin West Brian Lenihan is said to be reasonably safe. FFS, along with Cowen and Ahern he has been the architect of our downfall and yet he is likely to be re-elected, while others of the FF brigade who are far less culpable will get the boot.


(I'm not quite sure of what I'm ranting about but it feels good to have got it out in the open!)
Nil Carborundum Illegitemi

Billys Boots

#1161
February 25, 2011, 02:34:42 PM
Point of order Mr. Chairman: in Dublin Nth today, neither David O'Connor (IND) nor Marcus de Brún (IND) appeared on the ballot paper. 

The Dublin Nth (Gaaboard) result tallies with my prediction - interesting days ahead.
My hands are stained with thistle milk ...

gerrykeegan

#1162
February 25, 2011, 02:39:39 PM
Unusually busy at Polling station this afternoon.
2007  2008 & 2009 Fantasy Golf Winner
(A legitimately held title unlike Dinny's)

Bogball XV

#1163
February 25, 2011, 04:09:39 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on February 25, 2011, 01:56:11 PM
As I looked through the list of candidates for this and the other constituencies AZ has posted here, one thought in particular struck me.
The ones most  likely  to lose their seats are the ones least responsible for the mess we are in. For example, take Barry Andrews in this one. From what I hear from supporters and opponents alike, he is a sincere and hard-working individual but seems very likely to lose his seat today.
Hopefully,Hanafin will not make it either but she will certainly out poll him. She has a fighting chance even through she played her part in bringing the country to its knees. If there is to be a FF seat here, it should go to Andrews in all fairness.
Things are similar in Donegall South East, where Sweary Mary is well ahead of Brian Ó DOMHNAILL in the polls. If there choice were mine and FF had to be given a seat here, Ó Domhnaill would be miles ahead of the foul-mouthed second in command of the shower of gobshites we are going to dump today.
Out in Dublin West Brian Lenihan is said to be reasonably safe. FFS, along with Cowen and Ahern he has been the architect of our downfall and yet he is likely to be re-elected, while others of the FF brigade who are far less culpable will get the boot.


(I'm not quite sure of what I'm ranting about but it feels good to have got it out in the open!)
You are right with regards to the least culpable getting the most punishment, but I think that Lenno is no shoe-in, personally, I don't think he'll make it, but people do funny things in polling booths.

Maguire01

#1164
February 25, 2011, 06:09:57 PM
RTÉ reporting Cavan/Monaghan @ 35% turnout at this stage - a bit low compared to some of the constituencies.
BBC were reporting that turnout was high in middle-class areas - assuming that's good news for FG.

AZOffaly

#1165
February 25, 2011, 06:11:46 PM
Final Results are in from our predictions, with Fine Gael clearly being foreseen as the largest party, although well short of an overall majority. Even allowing for the Sinn Fein slant in some of the predictions, it looks like we are predicting a closer than expected race between Labour and FF for second, and Sinn Fein to have a very respectable showing indeed. It does look like the GAABoard predicts a strong showing in Dublin for Labour, as they ended up pipping FF and SF for second place in our results.

Final seat counts (83 required to form a government)
Fine Gael - 62
Labour - 30
Fianna Fail - 29
Sinn Fein - 29
ULA - 3
Greens - 2
Others - 11




For the record, the South Dublin predictions went as follows





Thanks for your votes, and for your patience. Now we'll see how off our game we actually are.

downredblack

#1166
February 25, 2011, 06:18:04 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 25, 2011, 02:34:42 PM
Point of order Mr. Chairman: in Dublin Nth today, neither David O'Connor (IND) nor Marcus de Brún (IND) appeared on the ballot paper. 

The Dublin Nth (Gaaboard) result tallies with my prediction - interesting days ahead.

Didn't notice that Billy but wasn't looking for either anyway . Do you know what the story is ? Could we be looking at voting again tomorrow if this is some sort of printers error ?

armaghniac

#1167
February 25, 2011, 06:50:06 PM
I don't think the GAA poll is reliable. As many people believe, the GAA is full of rabid republicans and is not typical of society.  :P
SF will only get half the seats predicted here and Labour will get a lot of these. In many constituencies there are SF, Left Alliance FF, and weirdo candidates who are not going to make it, Labour will get a lot of transfers from these, they'll also get transfers from FG if there aren't any FG candidates left.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

ross4life

#1168
February 25, 2011, 07:59:17 PM
Fine Gael now 7/4 for 81+ seats with PP
The key to success is to be consistently competitive -- if you bang on the door often it will open

omagh_gael

#1169
February 25, 2011, 08:55:57 PM
Anyone any rough estimate for an average vote turnout in elections in the North? I'v just seen this below on RTE and can't believe it. The most important election for years and approximately 4 out of 10 people are voting! Plus those reported are likely to be in the higher region if 2007 figures are used as a comparison. Crazy stuff!

"Most parts of the country are reporting that more people have voted than at the same time four years ago - between 40 and 43% in Limerick City, for instance. Something similar in Tipperary North, which had the highest turnout in the country in 2007."

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0225/election2011.html

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