Gerry's moving south...

[Zapatista]

i was trying to get some of the anti shinner crowd to give me a decent reason to vote for someone else. i'm not in love with sinn fein but right now together with groups like people before profit they're the only party who aren't in politics for their own gains

It's only my opinion but as long as Sinn Fein have Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness as active senior party members Sinn Fein will struggle to gain traction in the Republic - I mentioned this before and someone stated there was no evidence of this, I was busy at the time and let it pass but the 2007 election I think it was should provide all the evidence, the Shinners were expecting massive gains on the back of their success at the previous local elections, but the Irish electorate pulled a fast one on Sinn Fein for the reasons that they are viewed primarily as a party led by people with blood on their hands.

I said it. Listen to what you are saying - their success at the previous local elections. Who led them during this?

the Shinners were expecting massive gains - True but the didn't make any loses. That's spin.

In the 2007 election all small parties took a hit with their projections. This was not unique to SF. It would need furter evidence to point it out as a SF problem.

Adams has more support as a party leader than the party itself has.

SF just recieved 40% of the vote in a Dail election 2 weeks after Adams announced he would be running for the Dail.

I can see SF not reaching targets again. Some people in prominent places will claim SF are expected to get X ammount of seats. They might recive half of that ammount. Even if they gain 1 seat it will then be seen as a failure.

[stephenite]

Their success was on the back of the peace process - that's gone now.

I never said they made any losses - stop accusing me of spin to something I didn't say.

Where is the evidence that Adams has more support as party leader than the party itself, I assume this is a poll that is 26 county based as that is what we are discussing?

I can see the day when Sinn Fein are holding the balance of power or are even a larger coalition party, I can see Adams being elected in Louth but I can't see them both happening at the same time as the former will only happen when he is gone - in my opinion.

[tyssam5]

zap you are perfectly correct Intel and co are all over the world in countries like germany where the corp tax is (i think 30%) one of their main plants is set up in Israel to help support the Jewish state along with dozens of US giants IBM etc.. what really pisses me off about Intel is the way they interfered in the re-run of the Lisbon referendum. they more or less said that an other NO vote would see them pull out. and the irish voters shit themselves. if a crowd like this tried to pull a stunt like this in any other country they'd be kicked out. I've a mate who works there and he tells me they're showing signs of pulling the plug anyway. begging big multi-nationals to set up here is very wrong we must help create our own homegrown industry. irish politicians always do this they run to America with taxpayers money and literally buy jobs and offer favors. how many local lads could do what john delorean did? did any of you try to get funding from government Dept's lately try telling them you want to build a stainless steel sportscar you'd end up in the nut house

Ireland is their only EU manufacturing base. Would you not think experience in world leading technology companies would be key to setting up any home grown versions of same? Why do you think it is 'very wrong' to attract multinational companies, do you think that prohibits or encourages 'home grown' industries?

[Zapatista]

Their success was on the back of the peace process - that's gone now.

True but you are avoiding my point. Was Adams leader During the success? The peace process swing is gone but it has been held. For Adams to hold that without the swing or boost from the peace process could be seen as a success.

I

never said they made any losses - stop accusing me of spin to something I didn't say.

I know you didn't, that's why i said it was spin. It wasn't an attack on you I was just pointing it out. Many people have said it and they are spinning. You were just repeating it rather than spinning it.

Where is the evidence that Adams has more support as party leader than the party itself, I assume this is a poll that is 26 county based as that is what we are discussing?

Evey poll over the last 10 years anyway. Yes it's 26 county based.

I can see the day when Sinn Fein are holding the balance of power or are even a larger coalition party, I can see Adams being elected in Louth but I can't see them both happening at the same time as the former will only happen when he is gone - in my opinion.

I can't see that happening after the next election either. I can't see Adams stating about as leader much longer either.

[stephenite]

[I know you didn't, that's why i said it was spin. It wasn't an attack on you I was just pointing it out. Many people have said it and they are spinning. You were just repeating it rather than spinning it.

What am I repeating? If I didn't say anything how am I repeating it?

Regarding the first point - they got a bounce out of the peace process but the people were voting for local candidates not Adams, the bounce was for the party, that's why they haven't made much gains, it was down to the electoral circumstances of those individual constituencies and the good organisation on the gorund. Those gains would hvae been made regardless.

I'm heading out now for the day but I'll repeat my original point, SF will not gain too much whilst Adams and McGuinness are in charge, they'll see the gains once they go.

[Zapatista]

What am I repeating? If I didn't say anything how am I repeating it?

I'm not going over it again.

Regarding the first point - they got a bounce out of the peace process but the people were voting for local candidates not Adams, the bounce was for the party, that's why they haven't made much gains, it was down to the electoral circumstances of those individual constituencies and the good organisation on the gorund. Those gains would hvae been made regardless.

That's very convenient but it's just wish wash. You are separating the Leader of the Party from the success but attributing the perceived failures of the party to the leadership. I'm not sure you can convince youself that that is a reasonable position. I don't think it's a logical argument.

I'm heading out now for the day but I'll repeat my original point, SF will not gain too much whilst Adams and McGuinness are in charge, they'll see the gains once they go.

Maybe they will gain when they go but it's fair to say that beyond any doubt north and south they have made gains year after year with their leadership.

[stephenite]

Maybe they will gain when they go but it's fair to say that beyond any doubt north and south they have made gains year after year with their leadership.

Except 2007

[Zapatista]

Maybe they will gain when they go but it's fair to say that beyond any doubt north and south they have made gains year after year with their leadership.

Except 2007

They recieved more 1st preference votes in 07 than in 02. THey also gained in the north throughout this.

I'd guess it was down to the FF v FG battle. Transfers from LB, GN, Indo went to FF or FG rather than the other parties resulting in less seats. Tactical voting moreso than publc opinion.

[Zapatista]

Dermot Ahern isn't running

Make of that what you will.

[magpie seanie]

If you move the rate 1 or 2% the monetary gain for the country (or loss for the companies) is not significant. However it introduces uncertainty which is a complete no-no with large corporations. That's not speculation, I know it for a fact. We simply must not t**ker with the CT rate in any way, shape or form. On the face of it the CT rate looks too low from a moral argument standpoint but for a country like ours that is so reliant on inward investment its a necessary evil. VAT and employment taxes come into play as well. Its not just 12.5% and that's the lot.

What kind of services would we have if more people were on the dole? Zap's argument is an example of why SF's "economic policies" are laughed at. They just don't add up unfortunately. Even Sammy Wilson was taking the piss out of them at the weekend.

Wrong.

People laugh at you because you talk about a change in CT introduces uncertainty. What rock have you been under?

People laugh at you because you use Sammy Wilson as an example when there are so many to choose  from when having a pop at SF (and me).

That's not speculation, I know it for a fact (not really though it's really just speculation).

EDIT- it's gone now anyway.

What kind of services would we have if more people were on the dole?

What kind of deficit would we have if the MNCs paid a little more

Wow. I really touched a nerve there it seems.

When I say I know for a fact I actually do know for a fact. Anyway, laugh away. Its not like SF are actually going to be in power any time soon (thank God) so they can keep spouting economic lies that don't add up. I'm not defending FF/FG etc but if SF are to be a realistic alternative they have to have some sensible policies as opposed to two fingers to Europe & big business and spend, spend, spend.

[lynchbhoy]

[I know you didn't, that's why i said it was spin. It wasn't an attack on you I was just pointing it out. Many people have said it and they are spinning. You were just repeating it rather than spinning it.

What am I repeating? If I didn't say anything how am I repeating it?
Regarding the first point - they got a bounce out of the peace process but the people were voting for local candidates not Adams, the bounce was for the party, that's why they haven't made much gains, it was down to the electoral circumstances of those individual constituencies and the good organisation on the gorund. Those gains would hvae been made regardless.
I'm heading out now for the day but I'll repeat my original point, SF will not gain too much whilst Adams and McGuinness are in charge, they'll see the gains once they go.

I wouldnt see adams or mcguinness as a turn off for too many voters because of past/percived past.
A number would think that way alrght but i'd say the reason why people wouldnt votail sf would be because they are not a known entity or traditional option in the constituencies in the south. Also it woul dseem that a vote for them woul dbe a vote lost as their candidates wont get elected because too many people will view this in the same way.
No harm to adams as he seems like a very capable and good politician and has done loads for the country and the peace process etc - but sf need a cutting edge young leader to make them a real viable option. Conor murphy or the highly rated pearse doherty(though I cant say I know too much about pearse apart from what is being said about him ).
if sf had a new progressive smart lad (or lady) as leader, this would be the election to win votes and seats!
labour look like they are about to throw away their chance as too many rubbish candidates are being touted for next election. Some of the 'good' ones that prev ran and failed cant be bothered now!

[Hardy]

This'd be another reason:

  or, more specifically, this: 

[Hardy]

Of course. That has nothing to do with the fact that the antics represented in the picture are one reason SF will not achieve more than marginal electoral support in this jurisdiction in this generation.

[Banana Man]

Of course. That has nothing to do with the fact that the antics represented in the picture are one reason SF will not achieve more than marginal electoral support in this jurisdiction in this generation.

Right, explain the above statement, I can't wait, this should be good

[Evil Genius]

When discussing Adams' electoral prospects in Louth, I don't think we should overlook the Shinners' formidable vote-maximising record where, in NI at least, they are said even to be able to get the dead out to vote.

And make no mistake, if anyone should know "where the bodies are buried", it's Adams - even in his new constituency 

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/remains-were-disappeared-man-2440724.html
Monday November 29 2010

Human remains found buried near the Irish border have been identified as those of suspected IRA murder victim Gerry Evans.

The 24-year-old went missing in 1979 and is one of the so-called Disappeared who were killed and secretly buried by republicans during the Troubles. His body was found last month in bogland in Co Louth in the Irish Republic only days after officials had given up the search.


The remains of a body, believed to be that of 'Disappeared' victim Peter Wilson, are removed from a beach. The body of another victim has been identified as that of Gerry Evans