https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/25/boris-johnsons-diplomatic-amateurism-will-lead-no-deal-brexit/Setting out the parameters of that “quick and dirty” Canada-style trade deal, Sir Ivan warned that the EU would extract a disproportionately high price from the UK - with access to UK goods markets and fishing grounds, with little or nothing in return on financial and other services.
“We seem to be off to Canada, without our services sector,” he added, warning that a “desperate” Mr Johnson would face a “binary choice between a highly asymmetrical thin deal on [the EU’s] terms, and ‘no deal’ towards the end of next year”.
Faced with signing such an unequal treaty, Sir Ivan did not rule out Mr Johnson making the concessions and returning to London to sell the deal as a “huge success”, but thought it more likely that the Cabinet would reject agreeing to so much conditionality to deliver so little.
More likely, Sir Ivan concluded, the argument would be got up that a “no deal” exit on WTO-terms would be preferable, given the slim comparative economic advantages delivered by a basic FTA deal with so many EU strings attached.
But after attacking the Government for failing to level with the public about the coming trade-offs, Sir Ivan concluded with a note of warning to Europe of the risks of repeating the same “conclusions-driven” process of the previous negotiation which boxed the UK into a corner.
