6 counties election

Started by Ulick, April 22, 2010, 10:29:56 PM

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mick999

Pat Doherty on RTE saying something about postal votes could change it.  ...

Do the postal votes not get counted till later ??

orangeman

Quote from: mick999 on May 07, 2010, 03:21:09 AM
Pat Doherty on RTE saying something about postal votes could change it.  ...

Do the postal votes not get counted till later ??


No  - they're already included.

Ulick

Quote from: Maguire01 on May 07, 2010, 03:17:15 AM
The 'Ruane' factor at play here - she's just not a credible candidate for SF.

Eh? The SF vote increased. Ritche's vote held up while the unionist vote dropped massively from the Assembly election - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what happened there.

orangeman

Quote from: Ulick on May 07, 2010, 03:23:06 AM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 07, 2010, 03:17:15 AM
The 'Ruane' factor at play here - she's just not a credible candidate for SF.

Eh? The SF vote increased. Ritche's vote held up while the unionist vote dropped massively from the Assembly election - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what happened there.

No doubt. Unionists voted for SDLP to try and keep Ruane out.

mick999

Quote from: Ulick on May 07, 2010, 03:23:06 AM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 07, 2010, 03:17:15 AM
The 'Ruane' factor at play here - she's just not a credible candidate for SF.

Eh? The SF vote increased. Ritche's vote held up while the unionist vote dropped massively from the Assembly election - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what happened there.

Even taking into account tactical voting , it's still suprising that SF % Vote went down from 31% in Assembly elections to 28.7% here ...especially considering that the boundary changes should have increased nationalist vote by 3%

"Under the Boundary Commission's proposals, South Down is to lose three Down district wards, Ballymaglave, Ballynahinch East and Kilmore, to Strangford. This makes the new constituency 3.3% more Catholic"

Maguire01

Quote from: Ulick on May 07, 2010, 03:23:06 AM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 07, 2010, 03:17:15 AM
The 'Ruane' factor at play here - she's just not a credible candidate for SF.

Eh? The SF vote increased. Ritche's vote held up while the unionist vote dropped massively from the Assembly election - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what happened there.
The change in percentages were minimal and this in the context of a significantly reduced turnout. BBC saying a lot of Unionists didn't turn out in numbers, so their drop can't all be votes to Ritchie.

Regardless, did you not predict a massively reduced majority at best for SDLP? This seat isn't coming into play at any time soon and definitely not with Ruane.

orangeman

Willie Frazer 600 odd votes  :D :D ;D


Big turnout for Conor Murphy.

mick999

Murphy back in on a bit lower vote, same % though ..

Conor Murphy  Sinn Fein 18,857 42.0 +0.6
Dominic Bradley  Social Democratic & Labour Party 10,526 23.4 -1.7
Danny Kennedy  Ulster Conservatives and Unionists - New Force 8,558 19.1 +5.2
William Irwin  Democratic Unionist Party 5,764 12.8 -5.5
William Frazer  Independent 656 1.5 +1.5
Andrew Muir  Alliance Party 545 1.2 +1.2
Majority 8,331 18.6 
Turnout 44,906 60.4 -13.3



2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)
@Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein) 20,965 (41.4% +10.5%)
@Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 12,770 (25.2% -12.2%)
@Paul Berry (DUP) 9,311 (18.4% -1.0%)
@Danny Kennedy (UUP) 7,025 (13.9% +1.6%)
Gerry Markey (Independent) 625 (1.2%)

Windmill abu

Regardless if it is 6votes or 60 or 600 votes. The SDLP position must be that in the face of 1 Unionist candidate, they would rather a Unionist be elected to represent F&ST than have a sole nationalist in the election. I hope Alistair McDonnell sees the irony before he depends on a sole nationalist candidate before the next election.
Never underestimate the power of complaining

Ulick

Quote from: Maguire01 on May 07, 2010, 03:31:13 AM
Quote from: Ulick on May 07, 2010, 03:23:06 AM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 07, 2010, 03:17:15 AM
The 'Ruane' factor at play here - she's just not a credible candidate for SF.

Eh? The SF vote increased. Ritche's vote held up while the unionist vote dropped massively from the Assembly election - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what happened there.
The change in percentages were minimal and this in the context of a significantly reduced turnout. BBC saying a lot of Unionists didn't turn out in numbers, so their drop can't all be votes to Ritchie.

Regardless, did you not predict a massively reduced majority at best for SDLP? This seat isn't coming into play at any time soon and definitely not with Ruane.

Erm... the BBC and DUP were saying whole unionist boxes in Kilkeel were going to Ritchie.

I did, but did not expect the massive unionist vote of Ritchie. Still in play for next time when the educational reforms settle down.

Highlander3

SF up by 2 votes after the recount in F&ST

Highlander3

another recount has been called in F&ST

orangeman

Quote from: Highlander3 on May 07, 2010, 03:36:32 AM
SF up by 2 votes after the recount in F&ST


Bookies will have more than a passing interest in this one. ]


Obscne amounts of money were placed on O'Connor according to Eamon Mallie today.

Maguire01

Quote from: Highlander3 on May 07, 2010, 03:36:32 AM
SF up by 2 votes after the recount in F&ST
This is going to run! I was planning on heading to bed - meeting at work at 8.30 - but think I'll have to stay up.

orangeman

Michelle up by 2 is right.


Incredible.