Poker Millions

[Gnevin]

Ah FFS i wasnt claiming it as my own speil!!!
Some man to be talking about good practice!!

Do as I say not as I do

[ludermor]

  ill keep that in mind

Although ................http://thinkexist.com/quotation/do_as_we_say-and_not_as_we/159808.html

[thewobbler]

I played poker every week for a couple of years and have firmly come to the conclusion that some people are born luckier at card games than others, and that's what separates the best players from the rest.

This isn't the talk of a sore loser. I actually doubt I lost any money cumulatively over the period.

But based on playing local players and online, and watching the top guns on TV, I've narrowed the element of skill down to mostly luck.

Don't get me wrong, there is some skill involved. But there are literally hundreds of thousands of people who play the same passive aggressive style, who can count odds as quickly as you like. So the core skill of knowing when to hold and fold is completely is balanced out in competitive poker. Bullying, bluffing and calling comes with the cards, not the player.

Patience is a much bigger skill, but anyone who plays to win picks this up too.

Anyway, three key examples stick out in my mind of luck.

1. A famous hand when Phil Ivey sat down AK suited pre-flop. As it turned out one of his rivals had AA. The commentators creamed themselves over his sixth sense for danger. This is also known as luck.

2. In a pro-celebrity tournament, Daniel Negreanu knocked out three celebs in a row to go from mid-stack to basically tournament winner. All three hands were won on the river card when everything was stacked against him. The cumulative odds of this happening must be hundreds to one. Luck hanging out of him.

3. Doyle Brunson wrote a whole book on the theory of poker, and one of those theories was about never seeing the flob with anything less than face cards. Yet he twice won the WSOP with finishing hands of 10-2. You can blather all you want about reading your opponent, but when you win sackloads of money with 10-2, you are born lucky.

[Puckoon]

I played poker every week for a couple of years and have firmly come to the conclusion that some people are born luckier at card games than others, and that's what separates the best players from the rest.

This isn't the talk of a sore loser. I actually doubt I lost any money cumulatively over the period.

But based on playing local players and online, and watching the top guns on TV, I've narrowed the element of skill down to mostly luck.

Don't get me wrong, there is some skill involved. But there are literally hundreds of thousands of people who play the same passive aggressive style, who can count odds as quickly as you like. So the core skill of knowing when to hold and fold is completely is balanced out in competitive poker. Bullying, bluffing and calling comes with the cards, not the player.

Patience is a much bigger skill, but anyone who plays to win picks this up too.

Anyway, three key examples stick out in my mind of luck.

1. A famous hand when Phil Ivey sat down AK suited pre-flop. As it turned out one of his rivals had AA. The commentators creamed themselves over his sixth sense for danger. This is also known as luck.

2. In a pro-celebrity tournament, Daniel Negreanu knocked out three celebs in a row to go from mid-stack to basically tournament winner. All three hands were won on the river card when everything was stacked against him. The cumulative odds of this happening must be hundreds to one. Luck hanging out of him.

3. Doyle Brunson wrote a whole book on the theory of poker, and one of those theories was about never seeing the flob with anything less than face cards. Yet he twice won the WSOP with finishing hands of 10-2. You can blather all you want about reading your opponent, but when you win sackloads of money with 10-2, you are born lucky.

Ah wobbler....

1. Sensing danger and folding a big hand is not luck, that is skill. I once folded pocket aces in a 6 handed final table, where I was the chip leader. Id re raised on the button with the aces and the small blind, big blind and player two places under the gun moved all in. If I had have played the hand (which Id have ultimately lost to a set of 9s) id have been an out right idiot. Even if I had have not lost to the nines, Id have tied with another player who held the other two aces. So Id have been putting my tournament chip lead at risk when I didnt really have to, as in a 3 way pot I was guaranteed that at least one player was going home and so I was closer to the bigger money.

There is no luck in sensing danger or waiting for a better spot - that IS skill.

Furthermore - Ace, King is a piece of crap hand and Id regularly fold it!

[Gnevin]

I played poker every week for a couple of years and have firmly come to the conclusion that some people are born luckier at card games than others, and that's what separates the best players from the rest.

This isn't the talk of a sore loser. I actually doubt I lost any money cumulatively over the period.

But based on playing local players and online, and watching the top guns on TV, I've narrowed the element of skill down to mostly luck.

Don't get me wrong, there is some skill involved. But there are literally hundreds of thousands of people who play the same passive aggressive style, who can count odds as quickly as you like. So the core skill of knowing when to hold and fold is completely is balanced out in competitive poker. Bullying, bluffing and calling comes with the cards, not the player.

Patience is a much bigger skill, but anyone who plays to win picks this up too.

Anyway, three key examples stick out in my mind of luck.

1. A famous hand when Phil Ivey sat down AK suited pre-flop. As it turned out one of his rivals had AA. The commentators creamed themselves over his sixth sense for danger. This is also known as luck.

2. In a pro-celebrity tournament, Daniel Negreanu knocked out three celebs in a row to go from mid-stack to basically tournament winner. All three hands were won on the river card when everything was stacked against him. The cumulative odds of this happening must be hundreds to one. Luck hanging out of him.

3. Doyle Brunson wrote a whole book on the theory of poker, and one of those theories was about never seeing the flob with anything less than face cards. Yet he twice won the WSOP with finishing hands of 10-2. You can blather all you want about reading your opponent, but when you win sackloads of money with 10-2, you are born lucky.

Ah wobbler....

1. Sensing danger and folding a big hand is not luck, that is skill. I once folded pocket aces in a 6 handed final table, where I was the chip leader. Id re raised on the button with the aces and the small blind, big blind and player two places under the gun moved all in. If I had have played the hand (which Id have ultimately lost to a set of 9s) id have been an out right idiot. Even if I had have not lost to the nines, Id have tied with another player who held the other two aces. So Id have been putting my tournament chip lead at risk when I didnt really have to, as in a 3 way pot I was guaranteed that at least one player was going home and so I was closer to the bigger money.

There is no luck in sensing danger or waiting for a better spot - that IS skill.

Furthermore - Ace, King is a piece of crap hand and Id regularly fold it!

Have to agree. Most of what you call luck is skill . It's the ability to read other players .

[sammymaguire]

the fav won, poker must be skill  or is the skill the bookie making him fav? 

[dillinger]

I only play on-line, so live may be different for %.  I would say, long term playing, 70% skill, 30% luck

[Puckoon]

Everything changes with the turn of a card. Unless you truely have your opponent dominated you are always at risk. I am never happy until the chips are back infront of me, no matter how much of a favourite you are.

For example, I have pocket Aces (spade and diamond) and hardstation (that ****) has pocket 8s (club and heart)

Pre flop he is a 20% favourite to win the hand and I am an 80% favourite. Thats still not THAT great odds. Would you gamble your house if there was a 20% chance you could lose?

If the flop comes down 6, 7, 9 with two hearts his probabilities move to 41%! Another heart on the turnleaves him with 15 cards he can hit on the turn to beat me.

You cannot survive these types of hands all the time. You may move in with hands that crush your opponent, and still get fucked.

[thewobbler]

Ah you see Puck, you want to believe it's skill.

The reason a bad beat is called a bad beat is because the odds were in your favour. Statistically, if you play the same hand in the same scenario often enough, you will come out on top.

The reason bad beats eliminate most players is because you have to bet strongly when odds are in your favour, as the result of what I said above.


You can't win in tournament poker without handing out a bad beat or two - this allows you to double-up, and play patiently for the most part, gathering the strength to play aggressively when you need to.

This isn't about sensing danger or about sensing opportunity, it's all about a slice of luck. You can of course play for a very long time without taking risks, but you'll not end up in the money.


In the example you described above, you couldn't have gotten to chip leader without at one stage winning a hand like the one you pulled out of. By the way, did you win the tourney?

[Maiden1]

I played poker every week for a couple of years and have firmly come to the conclusion that some people are born luckier at card games than others, and that's what separates the best players from the rest.

This isn't the talk of a sore loser. I actually doubt I lost any money cumulatively over the period.

But based on playing local players and online, and watching the top guns on TV, I've narrowed the element of skill down to mostly luck.

Don't get me wrong, there is some skill involved. But there are literally hundreds of thousands of people who play the same passive aggressive style, who can count odds as quickly as you like. So the core skill of knowing when to hold and fold is completely is balanced out in competitive poker. Bullying, bluffing and calling comes with the cards, not the player.

Patience is a much bigger skill, but anyone who plays to win picks this up too.

Anyway, three key examples stick out in my mind of luck.

1. A famous hand when Phil Ivey sat down AK suited pre-flop. As it turned out one of his rivals had AA. The commentators creamed themselves over his sixth sense for danger. This is also known as luck.

2. In a pro-celebrity tournament, Daniel Negreanu knocked out three celebs in a row to go from mid-stack to basically tournament winner. All three hands were won on the river card when everything was stacked against him. The cumulative odds of this happening must be hundreds to one. Luck hanging out of him.

3. Doyle Brunson wrote a whole book on the theory of poker, and one of those theories was about never seeing the flob with anything less than face cards. Yet he twice won the WSOP with finishing hands of 10-2. You can blather all you want about reading your opponent, but when you win sackloads of money with 10-2, you are born lucky.

Ah wobbler....

1. Sensing danger and folding a big hand is not luck, that is skill. I once folded pocket aces in a 6 handed final table, where I was the chip leader. Id re raised on the button with the aces and the small blind, big blind and player two places under the gun moved all in. If I had have played the hand (which Id have ultimately lost to a set of 9s) id have been an out right idiot. Even if I had have not lost to the nines, Id have tied with another player who held the other two aces. So Id have been putting my tournament chip lead at risk when I didnt really have to, as in a 3 way pot I was guaranteed that at least one player was going home and so I was closer to the bigger money.

There is no luck in sensing danger or waiting for a better spot - that IS skill.

Furthermore - Ace, King is a piece of crap hand and Id regularly fold it!

Johnny Chan won 2 WSOP in a row and came second the next year, this is not luck, there is 1000s of people entering this tournament so the chances of getting 1st, 1st, 2nd through luck is incredibly small. If there was only 2000 players 1/2000*1/2000*1/2000 = 1/8000000000.
  You'd be much more likely to win the lottery.  Doyle Brunson may have won the final hand with 10 2, that is only 1 hand, he had to accumulate millions on chips before he played the 10 2 and he may have had the pot odds if he made the call.

Someone like Daniel Degreanu is incredibly good at reading the player and has the discilpline to fold 3 of a kind or a straight when he thinks he is behind.  That is a huge part of the skill.

I don't think AK is a bad hand, I would rather have AK than 99 pre-flop if someone puts a big raise in.  At least you know there is only 2 hands AA or KK which have you dominated.   Everything else you are 50/50 or better.  With 99 you can be dominated by 10 10, JJ, QQ.. as well as finding it hard to call a bet if an overcard comes on the flop.

[Puckoon]

Ah you see Puck, you want to believe it's skill.

The reason a bad beat is called a bad beat is because the odds were in your favour. Statistically, if you play the same hand in the same scenario often enough, you will come out on top.

The reason bad beats eliminate most players is because you have to bet strongly when odds are in your favour, as the result of what I said above.


You can't win in tournament poker without handing out a bad beat or two - this allows you to double-up, and play patiently for the most part, gathering the strength to play aggressively when you need to.

This isn't about sensing danger or about sensing opportunity, it's all about a slice of luck. You can of course play for a very long time without taking risks, but you'll not end up in the money.


In the example you described above, you couldn't have gotten to chip leader without at one stage winning a hand like the one you pulled out of. By the way, did you win the tourney?

I am not denying an element of luck! No poker player in the world has not put their money in badly and won a hand! We've all done it over and over again ,and when the luck is with you, ride it for all its worth.

I was just suggesting that phil ivey laying down Ace King against pocket aces is not luck. That part really is skill.

We chopped first and second (as is kinda customary in the local tournaments).

[thewobbler]

So Maiden1, what you're telling me is that you can pull 100% behind the theory that someone like Johnny Chan can be born with a sixth sense for playing poker, but the same man can't be born with just a lot of luck?

I can't see how one is more plausible than the other!

Reading players is all and well, but you can do very little without getting the cards to back it up.

[Puckoon]

Maiden - you are either incredibly great at playing Ace king (which some players are) or you are a player who will always over play it. What do you do if the flop comes Ace, 2, 10 and you bet and I raise you?

Ace king is a hard hand to get off, unless you can accurately read your opponent hasnt hit two pair, or trips. I personally think its a nightmare hand, and I will play it heads up or if I think I have everyone dominated, but in a 3-4 handed flop I will generally lay it down unless i flop the nuts.

Ill raise with ace king, (or limp and re raise if I sense weakness) or ill call a bet with it. But I wouldnt generally call an all in with Ace king, or call a re raise with ace king unless I was short stacked.

Although, I am generally playing no limit cash games, not tournaments (Id play Ace king a bit more in tournaments)

[Maiden1]

Maiden - you are either incredibly great at playing Ace king (which some players are) or you are a player who will always over play it. What do you do if the flop comes Ace, 2, 10 and you bet and I raise you?

Ace king is a hard hand to get off, unless you can accurately read your opponent hasnt hit two pair, or trips. I personally think its a nightmare hand, and I will play it heads up or if I think I have everyone dominated, but in a 3-4 handed flop I will generally lay it down unless i flop the nuts.

Ill raise with ace king, (or limp and re raise if I sense weakness) or ill call a bet with it. But I wouldnt generally call an all in with Ace king, or call a re raise with ace king unless I was short stacked.

Although, I am generally playing no limit cash games, not tournaments (Id play Ace king a bit more in tournaments)

If the flop comes A 2 10 I would find it hard to get off the hand.  If the person raised a lot pre flop then they probably have something.  e.g. JJ.  The chances of them having 10 2 in there hand is slim.  They could possibly have 10 10 pre flop or AA but there is a lot more cards that they could have that this flop hasn't hit.  If they had AA pre flop would they have put a big raise in pre flop?  I doubt it, they wouldn't want to price eveyone out of the hand so I would say they are likely to have only 2 hands if they are in front.  Either 10 10 or A 10.

[Puckoon]

I guess thats the whole fun 

Alot of folks place big stock in a big ace hand, like ace 10, ace jack so on. Ive seen ace king get its ass handed to it by these  hands a lot (especially if they are suited, jesus folks see a big suited ace and they cant get their money in quick enough).