Author Topic: Various bits re Brexit and Economics  (Read 6339 times)

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #75 on: April 09, 2019, 08:36:15 AM »
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/04/james-kanagasooriam-the-left-right-age-gap-is-even-worse-for-the-conservatives-than-you-think.html

It might not feel like it this week, but the Conservatives’ problem with younger voters is a bigger problem for them than Brexit. This morning, Onward publishes a big new report on the age gap in British politics – now the most important indicator of vote intention. The stark reality in the data is that the Conservative Party’s age curve is not only extreme – you now need to be 51 years old before you become more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – but worse than the age curve for Leave. This is often missed because support for Leave is higher amongst older voters than voting Conservative.
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haranguerer

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #76 on: April 09, 2019, 08:51:50 AM »
In the graphics I've seen shared re this and the accompanying commentary, there seems to be a notion that the future will see a much more left wing slant. Fact is, every generation has been like that, as people age they move to the right. Also, longer life expectancy with every generation is more likely to mean it has even less effect. The only things that will really make a difference is young people voting in the same numbers as older people, and whether the birth rate continues to increase or not.

Jell 0 Biafra

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #77 on: April 10, 2019, 02:22:33 AM »
In the graphics I've seen shared re this and the accompanying commentary, there seems to be a notion that the future will see a much more left wing slant. Fact is, every generation has been like that, as people age they move to the right. Also, longer life expectancy with every generation is more likely to mean it has even less effect. The only things that will really make a difference is young people voting in the same numbers as older people, and whether the birth rate continues to increase or not.

People say this a lot, but is it actually a fact?

haranguerer

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #78 on: April 10, 2019, 08:16:53 AM »
It can't be a fact as it predicts future behaviour, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that it has been the case and will continue to be for some time. The below attempts to isolate the effect of age v later generations being more socially aware.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 08:18:40 AM by haranguerer »

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #79 on: April 10, 2019, 09:09:27 AM »
https://www.ft.com/content/683d5212-5ad3-11e9-9dde-7aedca0a081a

   Britain and EU wrestle with Boris Johnson question
      
               Cross-party talks and bloc focus on proofing deal against hard-Brexit government
Deep disdain for Boris Johnson among many European governmentswhich see him as leader of a Brexit campaign built on false promises, is offset by growing impatience with Theresa  May’s government © PA
Sebastian Payne in London and Alex Barker in Brussels
In London and Brussels, in talks that could determine Britain’s future, negotiators are homing in on a common goal: how to rein in the actions of a future pro-hard Brexit British government.The focus in discussions between the UK’s Conservative and Labour parties is on providing assurances that a new Tory prime minister does not rip up any cross-party accord on future relations with the EU.Diplomats in Brussels are concerned with a similar issue, as the EU’s 27 other member states consider Britain’s request to delay its departure from the bloc. A big preoccupation ahead of a crucial summit on Wednesday is how to prevent a more Eurosceptic UK government from disrupting the bloc’s affairs from within.Both sets of concerns are personified by one politician in particular: Boris Johnson, the former UK foreign secretary who led the triumphant Leave campaign in the 2016 EU referendum and who hopes to succeed Theresa May as prime minister in the near future.Labour is worried that a prime minister Johnson could discard any agreement by Mrs May that commits the UK to closer post-Brexit relations with the EU than the UK government currently seeks. Other EU governments — notably France — fret that if the UK is granted a lengthy delay to its Brexit date, the country could wreak havoc with decisions in the European Commission, the European Council of member states and the European Parliament, particularly if a full-blooded Eurosceptic is in Downing Street.But the problem for the Labour-Conservative talks, perhaps also for the deliberations in Brussels, is that restricting the conduct of a future British government is far more easily said than done, particularly if the UK decides to go down a more antagonistic path.“The idea of a ‘Boris lock’ is ridiculous,” said a senior Conservative MP. “Parliament can’t bind its successors, no matter what the prime minister might agree with Labour or the EU.”
The British government cannot give the EU a nod and a wink to promise good behaviour . . . If we are stuck in we must use the remaining powers we have to be difficult
Labour remains agitated about Mr Johnson as Westminster is absorbed by speculation that Mrs May’s last days as prime minister are approaching.Although Mrs May has said she would only resign once her Brexit deal is passed by parliament, most Conservative MPs believe she will leave office in the autumn. Others believe she will have been pushed out by the summerMr Johnson is the favoured candidate of the party’s grassroots, according to surveys by the ConservativeHome website. He is also the favourite in the betting markets — followed by former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab and environment secretary Michael Gove. All three are strong Brexit proponents, and Mr Johnson and Mr Raab are fierce critics of Mrs May’s exit deal with the EU, although they voted for it in the House of Commons at the third time of asking. Hence Labour’s fear that, without strong guarantees, any deal with Mrs May might fail to last out the year.While Labour’s negotiating team acknowledges that a future parliament could renegotiate any agreement, it wishes to ensure that the next Conservative prime minister cannot change the deal before an election.
Rebecca Long-Bailey, Labour’s spokesperson on business, told the BBC at the weekend that any deal with the Conservatives must be “entrenched so that a future Conservative leader wouldn’t be able to rip up the changes that have been agreed”: in other words, “Boris-proofed”. John McDonnell, Labour’s shadow chancellor, added on Tuesday that any protections to stop a deal being unpicked also had to be in a treaty. “It’s more than it being in legislation, it’s about the agreement we have with the EU,” he said.Meanwhile there is deep disdain for Mr Johnson among many European governments, which see him as the wayward leader of a Brexit campaign built on false promises. But that is offset by growing impatience with Mrs May’s government, which lacks the authority in Westminster to see through on agreements made in Brussels. “Give us anyone who has a majority,” said one senior EU diplomat, who hoped for a quick resolution to the Brexit saga, one way or another. The EU has moved to shield itself against a change of guard in London by making clear that the withdrawal agreement negotiated with Mrs May is now in effect untouchable, regardless of who is in Downing Street.
Fear over a “rogue” Brexiter government subverting EU business has played a big role in raising concerns about the costs to the EU of approving a long delay to Britain’s departure date. Eurosceptic MPs have already urged the UK to act as a wrecker from within, especially if restrictions are attached to a Brexit delay.At a meeting of Europe ministers on Tuesday, Greece noted that, while no deal might be damaging, it might be no worse than “being held hostage” to a war within the Tory party while Britain remained a member state. One EU diplomat suggested that the terms of an extension also needed to be “Bojo proof” — to allow the bloc to cut short UK membership if Mr Johnson “or anyone irresponsible is prime minister one day and threatens to wreak havoc within the EU”. Senior French officials have privately suggested review clauses — potentially at intervals of two or three months.
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seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #80 on: April 10, 2019, 09:11:09 AM »
It can't be a fact as it predicts future behaviour, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that it has been the case and will continue to be for some time. The below attempts to isolate the effect of age v later generations being more socially aware.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics
Usually that is reliable but I think the Tories are looking like they are going to collapse. People are not happy. It reminds me of FF in 2010.
Parties can collapse too. It also happened to the SDLP
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seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #81 on: April 10, 2019, 10:29:08 AM »
Fermanagh and Omagh district or whatever is one of the 10 poorest according to UK Revenue

  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/791690/190402_National_Statistics_T3_12_to_T3_15a_publication_2016-17_FINAL.pdf

Another argument for a united Ireland
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Aaron Boone

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #82 on: April 10, 2019, 12:28:42 PM »
Fermanagh and Omagh district or whatever is one of the 10 poorest according to UK Revenue

  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/791690/190402_National_Statistics_T3_12_to_T3_15a_publication_2016-17_FINAL.pdf

Another argument for a united Ireland

But they also rank highly in happiness charts.

Jell 0 Biafra

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #83 on: April 10, 2019, 02:34:27 PM »
It can't be a fact as it predicts future behaviour, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that it has been the case and will continue to be for some time. The below attempts to isolate the effect of age v later generations being more socially aware.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

I was asking whether it was factual that there is a historical tendency for voters to vote more conservatively as they age.  Thanks for the link.  Very interesting.

armaghniac

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #84 on: April 10, 2019, 05:36:56 PM »
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« Reply #85 on: April 12, 2019, 12:23:16 PM »
https://www.ft.com/content/c68a235e-5ba5-11e9-939a-341f5ada9d40

Britain can now change its mind about Brexit
Macron’s emergence as a latter-day de Gaulle should not stop a second referendum

Philip Stephens

The workaday leader fashions every sound bite to immediate advantage. Seizing the microphone is what matters. The statesman plays a longer game. The strategic gain often lies in a quiet show of generosity. French president Emmanuel Macron by a margin is Europe’s most interesting politician. He has some way to go before claiming statesmanship.Mr Macron casts himself a leader of Europeans. British Europeans battling to overturn Brexit are apparently excluded from this definition. Much as the president styles himself as General de Gaulle, he was never going to wield the veto against perfidious Albion at this week’s Brussels summit. Instead of insisting an Article 50 extension be limited to six months, he would have done better to have been magnanimous. As it was, Germany’s Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, were the grown-ups.It is self-evident that the EU owes Britain nothing.
 The narrow opportunism that led the then prime minister David Cameron to call the Brexit referendum was arrogantly blind to the possible consequences. The failure of Theresa May’s government to win domestic support for her half-baked Brexit plan has imposed another unreasonable cost. Throw in former foreign secretary Boris Johnson’s Dad’s Army of little Englanders, forever re-fighting the second world war, and you see why Europe’s reservoir of goodwill has drained.
Exasperation is not a strategy, even when it is justified. Brexiters may be blind to the facts of geography, economics and geopolitical interest, but these realities demand that Britain and its neighbours eventually find a new point of co-operative balance. Expelling the Brits now would needlessly sour relations for years to come. It would also impose immediate costs on other EU members such as Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands. Mr Tusk put it well: “We should treat the UK with the highest respect, as we want to remain friends and close partners, and as we will still need to agree on our future relations.”Mr Macron has big bold ideas for the EU27. He wants an economic union to buttress the single currency, an EU-wide immigration and asylum policy and common European defence. These are laudable aims. It is more than faintly absurd, however, to claim that his grand plan is a hostage to Brexit. Berlin’s objections to debt mutualisation and joint defence exports are unconnected to the shenanigans at Westminster.A politician looking to claim leadership beyond France might also have noticed — as did Mr Tusk — the small shaft of light that has lately pierced the Stygian gloom at Westminster. For the first time since its (twice-vetoed) applications to join the common market during the 1960s, Britain has a pro-European movement. Nostalgists and nativists on the reactionary right face real opposition from those who see themselves as Europeans as well as Brits.
Last month hundreds of thousands — the organisers say a million — of British citizens gathered in London to say they want to hold on to their citizenship of Europe. At a minimum they want a second referendum before Britain leaves the EU. The 6m people who have signed an official petition have gone further — they are calling for the straightforward revocation of Article 50 so that Britain can stay in the union.Elections for the European Parliament offer these pro-Europeans an opportunity to solidify rising support for an entirely fresh assessment. If the past two miserable years have served any purpose it has been to expose the fraudulent choice presented in 2016. The cake-and-eat-it fantasies of Mr Johnson and we-hold-all-the-cards delusions of cabinet Brexiters have turned to dust. The trade-off between theoretical sovereignty and real jobs has been exposed. The billions promised for the National Health Service have turned into a massive exit bill. Xenophobic scaremongering about migrants has been shown to be just that. The economic costs of Brexit are already obvious in slower growth and tumbling investment. Big overseas investors make no secret of the threat to jobs.
 Anyone following the tortuous and thus far inconclusive debates in parliament can see they were offered a wholly false prospectus by the Leavers.Mrs May does not admit this, of course. She still wants to get her deal through parliament before calling an end to her dismal premiership. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, is concerned only with the electoral impact of any cross-party deal to break the parliamentary deadlock.Extra time, however, presents parliament — and the country — with an opportunity. Britain can change its mind about Brexit. MPs can and should agree to put any proposed settlement with the EU27 to a confirmatory referendum. The country could then be presented with the vote it was denied in 2016 — a choice between Remain and the best deal that parliament considers available to Britain outside the union.The trade-offs between prosperity and security and notional sovereignty would be there for all to see. The Kamikaze Brexiters who complain this would flout what they call “the will of the people” mistake democracy for the majoritarianism beloved of despots and demagogues. True democracy embeds the right of citizens to change their minds. As for Mr Macron, he would surely join Ms Merkel and Mr Tusk in applauding a victory for Britain’s Europeans.
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