The Many Faces of US Politics...

[J70]

I did a mock-up of the election result, leaning slightly to the Red in the very close battleground states to take some account of those who will vote Trump but are too embarrassed to admit it to a pollster, as follows.

Trump: Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10)

Biden: Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4)

I appreciate many of those are up for grabs and I haven't been overly scientific (and there might be other tights ones too), but they're my calls at the moment, with Wisconsin being the hardest call of the above for me.

I haven't called Pennsylvania (20), and the above leaves the score at Trump 260, Biden 258 - with the 20 from PA to decide who hits the magic 270 figure ..... (and even if I switched Wisconsin blue, my guesses would still leave Trump winning if he took PA).

I think Biden will definitely win the "popular vote" by more than Hillary did, but that won't guarantee winning the election.

Yep, it very easily could come down to waiting a few days for PA, while Trump cries foul and fraud and incites trouble.

If only the PA GOP hadn't insisted on blocking the state from even processing, never mind counting, mail-in ballots before election day.

The shy Trump voter is a invented now debunked theory as a reason to explain not fully accurate 2016 polls.
And Biden is ahead in the polls in Wisconsin by >10%   

I hope you are right.

I am very nervous about this.

This country is in for four very tough years if Trump wins.

[Hound]

I did a mock-up of the election result, leaning slightly to the Red in the very close battleground states to take some account of those who will vote Trump but are too embarrassed to admit it to a pollster, as follows.

Trump: Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10)

Biden: Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4)

I appreciate many of those are up for grabs and I haven't been overly scientific (and there might be other tights ones too), but they're my calls at the moment, with Wisconsin being the hardest call of the above for me.

I haven't called Pennsylvania (20), and the above leaves the score at Trump 260, Biden 258 - with the 20 from PA to decide who hits the magic 270 figure ..... (and even if I switched Wisconsin blue, my guesses would still leave Trump winning if he took PA).

I think Biden will definitely win the "popular vote" by more than Hillary did, but that won't guarantee winning the election.

Yep, it very easily could come down to waiting a few days for PA, while Trump cries foul and fraud and incites trouble.

If only the PA GOP hadn't insisted on blocking the state from even processing, never mind counting, mail-in ballots before election day.

The shy Trump voter is a invented now debunked theory as a reason to explain not fully accurate 2016 polls.
And Biden is ahead in the polls in Wisconsin by >10%   

Just my opinion. Perhaps you're right, but I don't quite believe they've been debunked based on working relationship I have with a number of Republicans in the US.

BBC says the latest "polling average" (Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 27 October) for Wisconsin is 49.8% Biden, 44.3% Trump. So 3% swing on that and it stays red (Trump won WI with 47.2% last time).

[sid waddell]

The current Wisconsin poll spread is Biden 51.2 Trump 43.4

[Hound]

I am very nervous about this.

This country is in for four very tough years if Trump wins.

I agree that this is far from a forgone conclusion. But one of the really interesting things IF he loses will be what the Republicans will do next time. I'm convinced Trump will run again, so will the GOP get behind him or will leadership try and rally around someone a bit more decent?

[Eamonnca1]

I'm worried about Pennsylvania. Biden's lead there is on a gentle downward slope. Come on Joe, only 6 days to go!

[sid waddell]

I'm worried about Pennsylvania. Biden's lead there is on a gentle downward slope. Come on Joe, only 6 days to go!

I'm worried about Pennsylvania for other reasons, namely the courts

It seems to me there is a raft of terrible Republican pollsters desperately trying to portray that public opinion is split evenly or that Trump is ahead

If you want to steal the election, you need to have astro-turf pollsters to create the impression that the race is close or that Trump is ahead

These are Rasmussen (obviously), Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Insider Advantage, the latter two are polling for a right-wing rag called "American Greatness"

[Gmac]

I'm worried about Pennsylvania. Biden's lead there is on a gentle downward slope. Come on Joe, only 6 days to go!

come on joe get back in the basement so you can't make another gaffe or can't answer any questions .

[Main Street]

I did a mock-up of the election result, leaning slightly to the Red in the very close battleground states to take some account of those who will vote Trump but are too embarrassed to admit it to a pollster, as follows.

Trump: Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10)

Biden: Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4)

I appreciate many of those are up for grabs and I haven't been overly scientific (and there might be other tights ones too), but they're my calls at the moment, with Wisconsin being the hardest call of the above for me.

I haven't called Pennsylvania (20), and the above leaves the score at Trump 260, Biden 258 - with the 20 from PA to decide who hits the magic 270 figure ..... (and even if I switched Wisconsin blue, my guesses would still leave Trump winning if he took PA).

I think Biden will definitely win the "popular vote" by more than Hillary did, but that won't guarantee winning the election.

Yep, it very easily could come down to waiting a few days for PA, while Trump cries foul and fraud and incites trouble.

If only the PA GOP hadn't insisted on blocking the state from even processing, never mind counting, mail-in ballots before election day.

The shy Trump voter is a invented now debunked theory as a reason to explain not fully accurate 2016 polls.
And Biden is ahead in the polls in Wisconsin by >10%   

Just my opinion. Perhaps you're right, but I don't quite believe they've been debunked based on working relationship I have with a number of Republicans in the US.

BBC says the latest "polling average" (Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 27 October) for Wisconsin is 49.8% Biden, 44.3% Trump. So 3% swing on that and it stays red (Trump won WI with 47.2% last time).

Wisconsin is not even in the betting as a swing state.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/wisconsin/
It's wise to be conservative with your rough forecast, but even at a conservative forecast, Biden comes out ahead and it's also a part of the equation that the undecided in the polls don't generally go and vote the way of the incumbent, so Biden should pick up another 2 or 3 more states which are currently in the balance, to embellish that tight majority. 

[J70]

I'm worried about Pennsylvania. Biden's lead there is on a gentle downward slope. Come on Joe, only 6 days to go!

come on joe get back in the basement so you can't make another gaffe or can't answer any questions .

What question do you need answered Gmac?

[sid waddell]

The New York Times "anonymous" op ed writer has revealed himself as Miles Taylor, former chief of staff of the Department of Homeland Security

Presume he'll be all over the cable networks tonight

Every little helps for Biden in terms of controlling the news cycle

[dec]

Went out to vote early this afternoon. Only took about 20 minutes, there have been much longer waits in New York. Of course NY is a certain Biden/Harris win, hopefully the national picture will be the same.

[Gabriel_Hurl]

Poor ol' Tucker - the entire trove of Hunter Biden documents just disappeared when they were being sent from NY to LA

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1321608091503366144

[Jell 0 Biafra]

Surprised he didn't think to do the "big book full of blank pages" thing that Trump did for his healthcare "better than Obamacare" plan.

[RedHand88]

I have a feeling the Democrats will regret going to texas and Georgia and not trying to hold onto what they have.

[Milltown Row2]

I think if trump goes out to 2/1 in the bookies then he might lose... at the minute, he's 6/4 or 7/4, 'thems' good odds