The Many Faces of US Politics...

Started by Tyrones own, March 20, 2009, 09:29:14 PM

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five points

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:10:11 PM
Saying Trump is not a "true" conservative is like saying Ian Paisley was not a "true" protestant. Trump is the inevitable outcome of years of conservatives steadily ratcheting up their hateful racist and xenophobic rhetoric Hillary Clinton.

Fixed that for you.

Eamonnca1

#16981
Swing state polling is looking good for Biden.


StateNumber of pollsBidenTrumpAverage margin
   Texas      3      46.40%      47.90%      R+1.5   
   Georgia      4      45.3      46.3      R+1.0   
   Pennsylvania      3      46.5      46.4      D+0.1   
   North Carolina      8      45.6      45.1      D+0.5   
   Florida      6      47.5      45      D+2.5   
   Arizona      5      46.5      43.2      D+3.3   
   Wisconsin      5      47.8      41.5      D+6.2   
   Michigan      8      49.8      42.2      D+7.6   

Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters.

The fact that Texas is now a swing state is encouraging. As more people leave California and move to the likes of Austin I expect to see Texas getting less red and more purple. This could also be the year when the Texas house goes blue.

Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.

Quoth the article:

Quote"As recently as 2017, House Republicans relished in a 95-member majority. But now, Democrats, bolstered by their 12-seat pick-up last year, are effectively only nine away from gaining control of the chamber — and having a larger say in the 2021 redistricting process."
That could be a tipping point. If the dems get enough power to stop Rethuglican gerrymandering, that opens up a lot of possibilities, including having Texas join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and a more swift end of the electoral college. The slow and steady restoration of Democracy in America is looking more and more like an achievable goal.

J70

Quote from: five points on June 23, 2020, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:10:11 PM
Saying Trump is not a "true" conservative is like saying Ian Paisley was not a "true" protestant. Trump is the inevitable outcome of years of conservatives steadily ratcheting up their hateful racist and xenophobic rhetoric Hillary Clinton.

Fixed that for you.

Its all the Dems fault! They made us vote for the corrupt, immoral, callous, narcissistic, shallow, bigoted, scaremongering demagogue who said out loud all the things we've been taught to think and fear. If only we had had, say, 16 or 17 other options in the GOP primaries... ;D

J70

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:59:49 PM
Swing state polling is looking good for Biden.


StateNumber of pollsBidenTrumpAverage margin
   Texas      3      46.40%      47.90%      R+1.5   
   Georgia      4      45.3      46.3      R+1.0   
   Pennsylvania      3      46.5      46.4      D+0.1   
   North Carolina      8      45.6      45.1      D+0.5   
   Florida      6      47.5      45      D+2.5   
   Arizona      5      46.5      43.2      D+3.3   
   Wisconsin      5      47.8      41.5      D+6.2   
   Michigan      8      49.8      42.2      D+7.6   

Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters.

The fact that Texas is now a swing state is encouraging. As more people leave California and move to the likes of Austin I expect to see Texas getting less red and more purple. This could also be the year when the Texas house goes blue.

Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.

Quoth the article:

Quote"As recently as 2017, House Republicans relished in a 95-member majority. But now, Democrats, bolstered by their 12-seat pick-up last year, are effectively only nine away from gaining control of the chamber — and having a larger say in the 2021 redistricting process."
That could be a tipping point. If the dems get enough power to stop Rethuglican gerrymandering, that opens up a lot of possibilities, including having Texas join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and a more swift end of the electoral college. The slow and steady restoration of Democracy in America is looking more and more like an achievable goal.

Surprised on Texas.

But they're all within the margin of error except, presumably, for the last two.

I would have thought Biden would be ahead in PA though.

whitey

#16984
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:06:47 PM
Quote from: five points on June 23, 2020, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:10:11 PM
Saying Trump is not a "true" conservative is like saying Ian Paisley was not a "true" protestant. Trump is the inevitable outcome of years of conservatives steadily ratcheting up their hateful racist and xenophobic rhetoric Hillary Clinton.

Fixed that for you.

Its all the Dems fault! They made us vote for the corrupt, immoral, callous, narcissistic, shallow, bigoted, scaremongering demagogue who said out loud all the things we've been taught to think and fear. If only we had had, say, 16 or 17 other options in the GOP primaries... ;D

No-they held a coronation instead of a primary and ended up with an extremely toxic candidate that had unfavorables very similar to Trump

The vote for Trump was in many cases a vote against Hillary.....several counties in swing states that had voted for Obama TWICE saw big swings back towards Trump.

So were they stupid and gullible when they voted for Obama or did they just become gullible and stupid when they voted for Trump?


Eamonnca1

Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:09:02 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:59:49 PM
Swing state polling is looking good for Biden.


StateNumber of pollsBidenTrumpAverage margin
   Texas      3      46.40%      47.90%      R+1.5   
   Georgia      4      45.3      46.3      R+1.0   
   Pennsylvania      3      46.5      46.4      D+0.1   
   North Carolina      8      45.6      45.1      D+0.5   
   Florida      6      47.5      45      D+2.5   
   Arizona      5      46.5      43.2      D+3.3   
   Wisconsin      5      47.8      41.5      D+6.2   
   Michigan      8      49.8      42.2      D+7.6   

Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters.

The fact that Texas is now a swing state is encouraging. As more people leave California and move to the likes of Austin I expect to see Texas getting less red and more purple. This could also be the year when the Texas house goes blue.

Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.

Quoth the article:

Quote"As recently as 2017, House Republicans relished in a 95-member majority. But now, Democrats, bolstered by their 12-seat pick-up last year, are effectively only nine away from gaining control of the chamber — and having a larger say in the 2021 redistricting process."
That could be a tipping point. If the dems get enough power to stop Rethuglican gerrymandering, that opens up a lot of possibilities, including having Texas join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and a more swift end of the electoral college. The slow and steady restoration of Democracy in America is looking more and more like an achievable goal.

Surprised on Texas.

But they're all within the margin of error except, presumably, for the last two.

I would have thought Biden would be ahead in PA though.

I was surprised at PA too. It must have a lot of red rural counties, I'd say Biden would be stronger in the cities.

I'm not at all surprised at Texas, I've been expecting it to get more blue for a while. A lot of people have been leaving California because of affordability problems, and Austin has been a popular destination for them. It's like an island of civilization in a red state.

J70

Quote from: whitey on June 23, 2020, 07:19:02 PM
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:06:47 PM
Quote from: five points on June 23, 2020, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:10:11 PM
Saying Trump is not a "true" conservative is like saying Ian Paisley was not a "true" protestant. Trump is the inevitable outcome of years of conservatives steadily ratcheting up their hateful racist and xenophobic rhetoric Hillary Clinton.

Fixed that for you.

Its all the Dems fault! They made us vote for the corrupt, immoral, callous, narcissistic, shallow, bigoted, scaremongering demagogue who said out loud all the things we've been taught to think and fear. If only we had had, say, 16 or 17 other options in the GOP primaries... ;D

No-they held a coronation instead of a primary and ended up with an extremely toxic candidate that had unfavorable a very similar to Trump

The vote for Trump was in many cases a vote against Hillary.....several counties in swing states that had voted for Obama TWICE saw big swings back towards Trump

You can point all you want to Hillary and her weakness as a candidate, but none of that absolves the Republicans of their choice of Trump or the fact that he now rules the GOP and the conservative movement in the US with an iron fist. He was not a reluctant choice on their part. They swallowed his extremist shit hook, line and sinker because he wasn't afraid to tell them exactly what they wanted to hear. That the long GOP project to paint Hillary, a pretty mainstream US politician, as a scary monster peeled off enough voters in a few decisive places does not change the fact that Trump is the outcome of conservative politics for the past couple of decades, not the cause. That vote "against Hillary" could have been a vote FOR someone like Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Unfortunately for us all, it wasn't.

J70

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 07:22:41 PM
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:09:02 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:59:49 PM
Swing state polling is looking good for Biden.


StateNumber of pollsBidenTrumpAverage margin
   Texas      3      46.40%      47.90%      R+1.5   
   Georgia      4      45.3      46.3      R+1.0   
   Pennsylvania      3      46.5      46.4      D+0.1   
   North Carolina      8      45.6      45.1      D+0.5   
   Florida      6      47.5      45      D+2.5   
   Arizona      5      46.5      43.2      D+3.3   
   Wisconsin      5      47.8      41.5      D+6.2   
   Michigan      8      49.8      42.2      D+7.6   

Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters.

The fact that Texas is now a swing state is encouraging. As more people leave California and move to the likes of Austin I expect to see Texas getting less red and more purple. This could also be the year when the Texas house goes blue.

Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.

Quoth the article:

Quote"As recently as 2017, House Republicans relished in a 95-member majority. But now, Democrats, bolstered by their 12-seat pick-up last year, are effectively only nine away from gaining control of the chamber — and having a larger say in the 2021 redistricting process."
That could be a tipping point. If the dems get enough power to stop Rethuglican gerrymandering, that opens up a lot of possibilities, including having Texas join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and a more swift end of the electoral college. The slow and steady restoration of Democracy in America is looking more and more like an achievable goal.

Surprised on Texas.

But they're all within the margin of error except, presumably, for the last two.

I would have thought Biden would be ahead in PA though.

I was surprised at PA too. It must have a lot of red rural counties, I'd say Biden would be stronger in the cities.

I'm not at all surprised at Texas, I've been expecting it to get more blue for a while. A lot of people have been leaving California because of affordability problems, and Austin has been a popular destination for them. It's like an island of civilization in a red state.

Ignoring the ludicrous district shapes, Dems appear to be, predictably, much stronger in the cities and along the border in the current House of Representatives.


whitey

#16988
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:34:03 PM
Quote from: whitey on June 23, 2020, 07:19:02 PM
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:06:47 PM
Quote from: five points on June 23, 2020, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:10:11 PM
Saying Trump is not a "true" conservative is like saying Ian Paisley was not a "true" protestant. Trump is the inevitable outcome of years of conservatives steadily ratcheting up their hateful racist and xenophobic rhetoric Hillary Clinton.

Fixed that for you.

Its all the Dems fault! They made us vote for the corrupt, immoral, callous, narcissistic, shallow, bigoted, scaremongering demagogue who said out loud all the things we've been taught to think and fear. If only we had had, say, 16 or 17 other options in the GOP primaries... ;D

No-they held a coronation instead of a primary and ended up with an extremely toxic candidate that had unfavorable a very similar to Trump

The vote for Trump was in many cases a vote against Hillary.....several counties in swing states that had voted for Obama TWICE saw big swings back towards Trump

You can point all you want to Hillary and her weakness as a candidate, but none of that absolves the Republicans of their choice of Trump or the fact that he now rules the GOP and the conservative movement in the US with an iron fist. He was not a reluctant choice on their part. They swallowed his extremist shit hook, line and sinker because he wasn't afraid to tell them exactly what they wanted to hear. That the long GOP project to paint Hillary, a pretty mainstream US politician, as a scary monster peeled off enough voters in a few decisive places does not change the fact that Trump is the outcome of conservative politics for the past couple of decades, not the cause. That vote "against Hillary" could have been a vote FOR someone like Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Unfortunately for us all, it wasn't.
m

We all know Trump was a clown candidate, yet the media at the outset treated him as a legitimate contender

WHY?

Well I know I'm paranoid, but at that point in time he was one of the few Republicans that Hillary was beating in the head to head matchup

There are emails from the DNC showing that they were working their allies in the media to promote the pied piper candidates and it backfired on them

https://www.salon.com/2016/11/09/the-hillary-clinton-campaign-intentionally-created-donald-trump-with-its-pied-piper-strategy/

J70

Quote from: whitey on June 23, 2020, 07:42:23 PM
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:34:03 PM
Quote from: whitey on June 23, 2020, 07:19:02 PM
Quote from: J70 on June 23, 2020, 07:06:47 PM
Quote from: five points on June 23, 2020, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on June 23, 2020, 05:10:11 PM
Saying Trump is not a "true" conservative is like saying Ian Paisley was not a "true" protestant. Trump is the inevitable outcome of years of conservatives steadily ratcheting up their hateful racist and xenophobic rhetoric Hillary Clinton.

Fixed that for you.

Its all the Dems fault! They made us vote for the corrupt, immoral, callous, narcissistic, shallow, bigoted, scaremongering demagogue who said out loud all the things we've been taught to think and fear. If only we had had, say, 16 or 17 other options in the GOP primaries... ;D

No-they held a coronation instead of a primary and ended up with an extremely toxic candidate that had unfavorable a very similar to Trump

The vote for Trump was in many cases a vote against Hillary.....several counties in swing states that had voted for Obama TWICE saw big swings back towards Trump

You can point all you want to Hillary and her weakness as a candidate, but none of that absolves the Republicans of their choice of Trump or the fact that he now rules the GOP and the conservative movement in the US with an iron fist. He was not a reluctant choice on their part. They swallowed his extremist shit hook, line and sinker because he wasn't afraid to tell them exactly what they wanted to hear. That the long GOP project to paint Hillary, a pretty mainstream US politician, as a scary monster peeled off enough voters in a few decisive places does not change the fact that Trump is the outcome of conservative politics for the past couple of decades, not the cause. That vote "against Hillary" could have been a vote FOR someone like Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Unfortunately for us all, it wasn't.
m

We all know Trump was a clown candidate, yet the media at the outset treated him as a legitimate contender.

Well I know I'm paranoid, but at that point in time he was one of the few Republicans that Hillary was beating in the head to head matchup

There are emails from the DNC showing that they were working their allies in the media to promote the pied piper candidates and it backfired on them

https://www.salon.com/2016/11/09/the-hillary-clinton-campaign-intentionally-created-donald-trump-with-its-pied-piper-strategy/

Again, that may all be true. Hillary's campaign was pretty awful overall, although it's pretty standard for the opposition to try to boost a more extremist candidate in the hopes of making the general a perceived easier choice.

But Trump took advantage of a GOP base ripe for the picking.

In contrast, the Dems rejected Bernie twice in favour of a mainstream candidate.

You think Trump wasn't thinking along these lines with the whole Ukraine debacle? He wanted Biden out and Bernie in.

whitey

Sure-the whole process is very fvckin depressing

Good people like Joe Biden and Mitt Romney get absolutely obliterated by lies and bvllsh1t

I'm sure Trumps crowd are currently working on an ad using Kamala Harris's words against Biden which IMHO was as dastardly an attack on his character as any Republican could ever have concocted

Eamonnca1

A group of Republican ex national security officials are going to endorse Biden and campaign for him. They include at least two dozen who served under Reagan, Bush I and Bush II. This is in addition to the Lincoln Project, a Republican-led effort to run anti-Trump ads in battleground states.



screenexile

Yeah it's from racism carried out back in October so totally ok 👍 👍