Author Topic: The Many Faces of US Politics...  (Read 1267329 times)

Eamonnca1

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15375 on: March 12, 2020, 09:10:38 PM »

Gabriel_Hurl

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15376 on: March 12, 2020, 09:13:46 PM »
no - I'm ok thanks ... I know how odds work.

macdanger2

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15377 on: March 12, 2020, 10:25:37 PM »
I'm pretty sure your odds are off eamon

Eamonnca1

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15378 on: March 12, 2020, 11:49:25 PM »
My understanding is that betting odds don't work like mathematical fractions. If they meant 5/1, why wouldn't they have just said 5/1? If it were 5/1 then that'd mean Biden is less likely to win than he was before when he was 13/10.

Have I missed something obvious?  I've been known to do that sometimes…
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 11:54:10 PM by Eamonnca1 »

Gabriel_Hurl

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15379 on: March 13, 2020, 12:20:06 AM »
Where did you get the 15/3 from anyways?

15/3 means you win $15 from a $3 bet. Therefore a $1 bet would win you $5 .... so 15/3 =5/1


Eamonnca1

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15381 on: March 13, 2020, 04:06:50 AM »
I'm getting the odds from here:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

15/3 musta been a typo, it's now saying 15/13.

seafoid

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15382 on: March 13, 2020, 04:55:11 AM »
Your numbers are way off

Was basing it on the average wage in the US being ~$38k a year. :shrugs:


Maybe you should live here for 20/30 years before you start “educating” us on how our healthcare system works

Someone earning $34 K per year in Boston is probably on Masshealth and paying next to nothing for their healthcare


Nationally:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kff.org/health-reform/fact-sheet/aca-open-enrollment-if-you-are-low-income/amp/

In general, you may be eligible for tax credits to lower your premium if you are single and your annual 2020 income is between $12,490 to $49,960 or if your household income is between $21,330 to $85,320 for a family of three (the lower income limits are higher in states that expanded Medicaid).

You don't have to be in the US to know that something that cost 5% of GDP now costs almost 18% of GDP.
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Eamonnca1

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15383 on: March 13, 2020, 08:04:29 PM »
Okay, sorry for the mishap with the last one, I've fixed it below, and the latest odds are at the bottom:

Quote
Delegate count:
Buttigieg 22
Sanders 21
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7
Biden 6
Bloomberg 0

Betting odds for 2020 winner:

Trump 8/13
Sanders 4/1
Bloomberg 9/1
Biden 20/1

Bloomberg took a hiding last night. He was like a duck out of water. Warren obliterated him. Will be interesting to see how that affects the polling numbers over the next few days, and if his high burn rate can take the bad look off it. I just wish he'd get out of the race and put his money into something useful like flipping the 4 senate seats we're going to need.
Odds update:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 7/2 (3.5/1)
Bloomberg: 8/1
Biden: 22/1

Bernie's odds moving in the right direction. Biden, not so much.

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 1/1
Bloomberg: 4/1
Buttigieg:8/1
Biden: 9/1

Update:
Delegate count:
Sanders 31
Buttigieg 22
Warren 8
Biden 8
Klobuchar 7
Bloomberg 0

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 3/1
Bloomberg: 10/1
Biden: 25/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 5/6
Bloomberg: 4/1
Buttigieg:11/1
Biden: 11/1

Interesting that Chrome still thinks "Buttigieg" is a typo.

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 29/10 (2.9/1)
Bloomberg: 10/1
Biden: 28/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 4/5
Bloomberg: 4/1
Biden: 10/1
Buttigieg:12/1

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 3/1
Bloomberg: 12/1
Biden: 12/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 10/11
Biden: 4/1
Bloomberg: 11/2
Buttigieg:20/1

Bloomberg and Buttigeig getting it tight.

Bernie's odds are slipping slightly in the general election, but he's still the favourite to get the nomination.

2020 winner:
Trump: 8/13
Sanders: 10/3 (3.3/1)
Biden: 9/1
Bloomberg: 12/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 10/11
Biden: 13/4
Bloomberg: 6/1
Buttigieg:20/1

This stock market crash might throw a spanner in the works. It was this kind of October surprise that worked in Obama's favor in 2008 when "the fundamentals of our economy [were] strong" until they weren't. Trump might cruise to reelection if the economy stays strong, but the coronavirus could change all that.

Get in there Bernie!

Delegate count:
Sanders: 58
Biden: 50
Buttigeig: 26 (I wonder what happens to delegates after a candidate pulls out)
Warren: 8
Klobuchar: 7

2020 winner:
Trump: 4/6
Sanders: 3/1
Biden: 13/2 (6.5/1)
Bloomberg: 16/1

Democratic candidate:
Sanders: 1/1
Biden: 5/2
Bloomberg: 7/1
Hillary Clinton(!): 33/1

This is the first we've seen Trump's odds moving in a while. Could be the coronavirus effect. Damned if I know why they're showing odds for Hillary instead of the likes of Warren or Klobuchar who are actually in the race.

Delegate count:
Biden 664
Sanders 573

2020 winner:
Trump: 4/5
Biden: 13/8 (1.6/1)
Sanders: 16/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/7
Sanders: 9/1

2020 winner:
Trump: 10/11
Biden: 6/4
Sanders: 18/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/8
Sanders: 9/1

Trump getting it tight. Looking good for Biden if these odds keep moving the way they are. If he puts Warren on his ticket as VP, that should pick up enough Bernie supporters in November. This could be the light at the end of the tunnel.

Delegate count:
Biden 664
Sanders 573

2020 winner:
Trump: 4/5
Biden: 13/8 (1.6/1)
Sanders: 16/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/7
Sanders: 9/1
Delegate count:
Biden 857
Sanders 709

2020 winner:
Trump: 10/11 (1/1.1)
Biden: 13/10 (1.3/1)
Sanders: No longer in the top 4

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/14
Sanders: 40/1

2020 winner:
Trump: 1/1
Biden: 15/13
Sanders: 50/1
Deval Patrick: 50/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/16
Sanders: 33/1

The trend is unmistakable.

2020 winner:
Trump: 11/10
Biden: 11/10
Sanders: 33/1
Deval Patrick: 33/1

Democratic candidate:
Biden: 1/12
Sanders: 25/1

Game over for Trump, it seems. Although it's a long way to November, but I'm not sure how he can come back from this. He can't lie or spin his way out of this. Not even Fox News can help him when the dead start piling up.

dec

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15384 on: March 13, 2020, 08:09:46 PM »
Trump is giving a live speech from the Rose Garden at the White House to declare a national emergency.

Summary
Trump: Everything I did was great
Various CEOs: Our companies are great and thank you Mr President
Pence: Spends his entire speech kissing Trumps ass

macdanger2

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15385 on: March 15, 2020, 01:42:01 AM »
Trump is giving a live speech from the Rose Garden at the White House to declare a national emergency.

Summary
Trump: Everything I did was great
Various CEOs: Our companies are great and thank you Mr President
Pence: Spends his entire speech kissing Trumps ass

The flowchart was unbelievable  :D

seafoid

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15386 on: March 16, 2020, 12:07:10 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain. The president, enraged for having been unmasked, will become more desperate, more embittered, more unhinged. He knows nothing will be the same. His administration may stagger on, but it will be only a hollow shell. The Trump presidency is over.
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whitey

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15387 on: March 16, 2020, 01:53:30 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain. The president, enraged for having been unmasked, will become more desperate, more embittered, more unhinged. He knows nothing will be the same. His administration may stagger on, but it will be only a hollow shell. The Trump presidency is over.

I think he’s toast, but then the Democrats could also completely screw it up like they did in 2016

If anyone has the time, read the Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis (it will blow your mind)

J70

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15388 on: March 16, 2020, 02:05:57 PM »
Coronavirus won't matter a f**k in the election if its over by the summer.
His lying, narcissism, anti-intellectualism and corruption are well baked-in at this stage.

five points

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Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« Reply #15389 on: March 16, 2020, 02:08:03 PM »
The funny thing is that coronavirus is vindicating Trump's opposition to open borders. If anyone had told us a year ago that Angela Merkel would today be closing Germany's borders, they wouldn't have been believed. The Democrats will have their work cut out to justify their strong support to date for open borders.