Ireland’s debt is forecast to reach a little above €203 billion or 111 per cent

[seafoid]

Without getting intot the private versus public row, it does raise a serious question.

Why is the Governemnt debt not inclusive of their commitments to PS pay, Social Welfare payments and pensions? These are real liabilities that should be at least included in a combined projected debt figure.

I think it is because they are pay as you go and the assumption is that they will all be grand.

[armaghniac]

Without getting intot the private versus public row, it does raise a serious question.

Why is the Governemnt debt not inclusive of their commitments to PS pay, Social Welfare payments and pensions? These are real liabilities that should be at least included in a combined projected debt figure.

I think it is because they are pay as you go and the assumption is that they will all be grand.

Have you funded all of your future liabilities?

[seafoid]

Without getting intot the private versus public row, it does raise a serious question.

Why is the Governemnt debt not inclusive of their commitments to PS pay, Social Welfare payments and pensions? These are real liabilities that should be at least included in a combined projected debt figure.

I think it is because they are pay as you go and the assumption is that they will all be grand.

Have you funded all of your future liabilities?

there is a huge difference between pay as you go and a funded method.
If the proportion of older people in the population increases significantly then PAYG benefits will have to be scaled down. I think a lot of pensions will be reduced anyway, even funded ones. There won't be much economic growth in the future, most likely

[armaghniac]

there is a huge difference between pay as you go and a funded method.
If the proportion of older people in the population increases significantly then PAYG benefits will have to be scaled down. I think a lot of pensions will be reduced anyway, even funded ones.

There are two reasons for more old people as a proportion.
- people living longer - this should (and has) been dealt with by increasing retirement age.
- birthrate lower than people reaching retirement - not so much a problem yet in Ireland

There won't be much economic growth in the future, most likely

As Ireland is already relatively prosperous, it will not grow as quickly as in the late 90s. This is only a problem if you borrow too much.

[seafoid]

there is a huge difference between pay as you go and a funded method.
If the proportion of older people in the population increases significantly then PAYG benefits will have to be scaled down. I think a lot of pensions will be reduced anyway, even funded ones.

There are two reasons for more old people as a proportion.
- people living longer - this should (and has) been dealt with by increasing retirement age.
- birthrate lower than people reaching retirement - not so much a problem yet in Ireland

There won't be much economic growth in the future, most likely

As Ireland is already relatively prosperous, it will not grow as quickly as in the late 90s. This is only a problem if you borrow too much.

Low growth means assets don't increase in value as much as necessary to fund retirement at affordable rates.
If you get 8% return on your assets a year you don't need to put in as much as if the return is only 2% a year.
Pensions were affordable when assets returned 8% and are unaffordable at 2%.
Interest rates are low now because there are too many assets looking for a return and not enough real world investments to absorb  them.
The neoliberal money supply has really destroyed the assumptions that drove the development of the pensions business.

[muppet]

Without getting intot the private versus public row, it does raise a serious question.

Why is the Governemnt debt not inclusive of their commitments to PS pay, Social Welfare payments and pensions? These are real liabilities that should be at least included in a combined projected debt figure.

I think it is because they are pay as you go and the assumption is that they will all be grand.

Have you funded all of your future liabilities?

I am talking about quantifying known commitments and at least mentioning the figure when discussing the National Debt. Road paving as you mentioned earlier is entirely discretionary and should actually be in local government budgets anyway.

Penions and PS pay is not discretionary, it can't be put off for a year or two. TBH this liability is even worse than the National Debt, and should have more attention as, unlike the National Debt, it can never be paid off. I suspect the reason we don't hear about it, is so that Government performance in managing it doesn't get much scrutiny.

[Mike Sheehy]

there is a huge difference between pay as you go and a funded method.
If the proportion of older people in the population increases significantly then PAYG benefits will have to be scaled down. I think a lot of pensions will be reduced anyway, even funded ones.

There are two reasons for more old people as a proportion.
- people living longer - this should (and has) been dealt with by increasing retirement age.
- birthrate lower than people reaching retirement - not so much a problem yet in Ireland

There won't be much economic growth in the future, most likely

As Ireland is already relatively prosperous, it will not grow as quickly as in the late 90s. This is only a problem if you borrow too much.

Low growth means assets don't increase in value as much as necessary to fund retirement at affordable rates.
If you get 8% return on your assets a year you don't need to put in as much as if the return is only 2% a year.
Pensions were affordable when assets returned 8% and are unaffordable at 2%.
Interest rates are low now because there are too many assets looking for a return and not enough real world investments to absorb  them.
The neoliberal money supply has really destroyed the assumptions that drove the development of the pensions business.

Your political worldview is never very far from your economic worldview is it Seafoid ?

Do you think growth rates will remain low forever ? If not , what do you think will drive growth in the future  ?

[Mike Sheehy]

€8.25 billion in interest payments is a total waste of money. The government should govern on behalf of the people, not global financial blood suckers.

That is brave talk. Pity there wasn't more of that talk when the "global financial blood suckers" were throwing money at us.It is a dangerous game trying to be a hare and running with the hounds.

When bonds were issued the interest rates reflected the risk of non repayment.  Ireland was seen as a  safe bet. When things went tits up bondholders would normally expect to be burned. Our govt buckled and decided to honour all debts. Our govt acted in the best interests of everyone but the people it was elected to represent. Financial Institutions exist to make money and I'd have no truck with them. Blame lies solely with our incompetent and spineless government.

Even if bank debt was removed we'd still be running a significant deficit.  Ireland's biggest problem is the size and cost of the civil/public service. This governance answer to addressing the deficit? Irish Water.

You are dead right.

My point was that people were happy to take money from financial institutions to finance their second mortgage or second car during the Celtic tiger yet turned around and screamed about "global financial bloodsuckers" when things went tits up.

This kind of hypocrisy should be pointed out at every turn.