Division 4 Final scheduling.

[The Burner]

I think we both agree that there is some miniscule amount to be gained in avoiding a clash from a Limerick perspective, and we both agree that to arrange such a switch would discommode Offaly. Can I ask what you're suggesting be done for Offaly to compensate for this? Or is there any reason why we should roll over and play dead here? We've to promote football in our county too and a second consecutive year of shipping a double digit defeat to our neighbours wouldn't exactly be a big selling point in areas like Edenderry, Clonbullogue and Bracknagh. Essentially you want Offaly to take a hit for Limerick's sake - why on earth should we do this?


The point of the dry run is the game is being played the same day, the same time of day. Playing at 2pm is not the same, playing at 7pm is not the same, playing on Sunday is not the same. The players and management have to go through their routine and come up with what's best for them in terms of travel, diet, warm up, all the more so since we're playing a team that have played approximately 20 games in Croke Park since we were last there.


A lot of ifs there may be, but these things can sometimes turn out that way. Offaly already rolled over once in the committee room this year, in the Leinster u21 championship when our home game against Laois was moved to Portlaoise. We lost by a point. If home advantage is worth anything at all, giving up that edge - and perhaps we had no choice but that's another debate - cost us that result. A corner forward might spend all year concentrating on kicking off his weaker foot and never get the chance to use that skill in a match - everything you do is about picking up the 1% here and there, and hope that they all add up. You certainly don't give up those margins for no good reason.

Mathematically, the chances of a draw in a game between two quite even teams is on average about 11% - the absence of any draws in preceding games has no bearing, those are independent events. As you well know Limerick could just as easily have had four or five draws this year - four of your wins were by a point, another was by two. Ye were also a very low scoring team, which increases the chance of a draw. A level game in a relatively even match where the total points expectancy is about 26 would have a 12 or 12.5% chance of a draw by any normal probability distribution, allowing for skewing due to team motivation late in a game. That would drop to 10% or even less for an even game where the total is anticipated to fall around 33.5 or 34.   

Critically however, a draw becomes much more likely when that result is of real value to either or both of the teams. I've got a bank of data here on my laptop incorporating all senior club and county scores going back seven years that bears that out, aside from the intuitively apparent reasons why that might be. It's fierce easy to dismiss something as "unlikely", but everything has an inherent mathematical probability, subject to external factors, and you don't just ignore things that are unlikely. I'm unlikely to get a puncture on any single drive in my car, yet I still keep a spare tyre in the boot.

I know for a fact that win was the only thing on the Limerick agenda going to Ennis.

Jaysus lad, if I wanted to read cliché ridden shite like that I'd pick up Martin Breheny's column. Are you honestly trying to tell me that in a situation where a draw guaranteed Limerick's promotion and a defeat meant ye had an 88% chance of missing out, Limerick would have gone for goal in the closing stages if they were a point down - or they'd have pushed men forward chasing a winner in injury time with the sides level, even if they ran the risk of conceding on the counter? You and I both know that's not the truth and you do your case no good at all by making up such lies. Of course teams want to win - however if Maurice Horan was offered a draw, he'd have said thank you very much and turned the bus around to go home.


On my final point, it's not that you didn't play, it's that you're ignoring basic aspects of this argument and just giving a quick and easy tabloid-esque view, coming at it entirely from one side of the argument with no thought through for the consequences, or the fairness of what you're suggesting. You think the game should be moved to suit Limerick and to hell with the fact that it inconveniences Offaly. I could just as easily suggest that Ian Ryan be suspended for no good reason, it would have the same effect except the other way around. And I'm sure Ian Ryan's absence and our increased likelihood of winning the game would be great for the promotion of the sport of gaelic football in Offaly too. However it would be unfair and for no solid reason, so I would never suggest such a thing.

The title of this thread is about the initial scheduling of the match, If I was talking about changing it, I would have put Change in the thread. So for the 3rd time i would hold nothing against Offaly if they said no, My issue is with how they arranged it in the 1st place. If they hadnt of arranged it for 5 o clock in the 1st place then Offaly would have no issue. The fact that it is now set for 5 they have perfectly valid reasons for objecting. I have never asked for Offaly to roll over and play dead have I? I didnt come on here demanding that the game be changed. I took issue with the initial scheduling of it simple as. Whats done is done but I am entitled to raise the issues I have with.

As for County boards rolling over, The Limerick County board roll over quicker than the French Army in World war 2. We won division 2 of the hurling 2 years ago and we are still in it!

I havent really got time to respond to ever single point that you make but it basically all IF and BUTS, Yes Limerick were in closed games that could of ended up draws but they didnt, did they? Id like to think that says something about the character of the Limerick team rather than being down to luck

[Lone Shark]

The initial scheduling of this match was three months ago, for the same slot that this fixture has filled for the last few years. Limerick and Offaly just qualified to take part in it last weekend. If your beef was with the initial scheduling, it would have been made then. What you're actually doing is suggesting that it should be changed to suit the fact that Limerick topped the group and qualified to play in it.


Neither am I saying that Limerick don't deserve credit for their narrow wins - they absolutely do. We were either one up, level or behind against Carlow, Leitrim, Waterford and Tipp with five minutes to go - we won all four games. That ability to deliver in a tight finish is why Offaly and Limerick go up, and why Clare and Tipp don't.

My point was just to rebut the notion that a lack of draws up to then had any bearing on the likelihood or otherwise of a draw in either of the key fixtures last Sunday.

[Rossfan]

. If they hadnt of arranged it for 5 o clock in the 1st place

I thought we had eradicated this type of thing.

I suppose that what happens when you watch too much rubby