Media AI predictions

[armaghniac]

At this time of year various journos put forward their expectations, lets keep these for the record!

[armaghniac]

Sunday Tribune

All about the inches on any given Sunday
The margin between victory and defeat can be tiny in the Championship, Kieran Shannon and Ewan MacKenna separate out the behemoths, minnows and those in between in our county-by-county guide to the race for Sam
Power and the glory: Darran O'Sullivan lifts the Sam Maguire for Kerry last September
Kildare will be hoping John Doyle can strike a rich vein of form
Brendan Donaghy will give Armagh some security at the back
Once more into the breach: the return of Dennis Glennon is a real boost for Wesmeath

1. Kerry

Forget about all the big names they've lost. Look at who they still have. There isn't a stronger starting 15 in the country. What might cost them is their bench which is the weakest it's been in over 10 years.

Who they've lost Darragh Ó Sé, Diarmuid Murphy, Sean O'Sullivan (retired), Tommy Walsh, Tadhg Kennelly (AFL), Aidan O'Mahony (opted out)

Who they've found Goalkeeper Brendan Kealy and ball-winning impact sub David O'Callaghan

Reality check A record-breaking seventh consecutive All Ireland final is not beyond them; a fourth Sam Maguire in five years might be

If they had a line in a sports movie "You're good, Kid, but as long as I'm around you're second best. You might as well learn to live with it." Lancey Howard, The Cincinnati Kid

2. Cork

If they can tighten things up in the full-back line and avoid a trip up north in the qualifiers, it's hard to see even Kerry denying them in Croker.

Who they've lost James Masters, Conor McCarthy, Michael Cussen (opted out), Seán O'Brien

Who they've found A midfielder-half-back in Aidan Walshe and a juggernaut of a forward in Ciarán Sheehan

Reality check All Ireland champions

If they had a line in a sports movie "You know, I got a hunch, fat man. I got a hunch it's me from here on in...You know, this is my table, man. I own it." Fast Eddie Felson, The Hustler

3. Tyrone

The defeat to Dublin in the last game of the league was a worrying sign of slippage but like Kerry, there is one last big push in this crew before the core of their team breaks up.

Who they've lost Collie Holmes (retired), Mickey McGee (injured)

Who they've found Midfielder Aidan Cassidy, an impact sub last year, an impact starter this year

Reality check Don't have the depth of previous years. Should get back to Croke Park but probably not an All Ireland final.

If they had a line in a sports movie "When we fought, you had that eye of the tiger, man; the edge! And now you gotta get it back." Apollo Creed, Rocky III

4. Dublin

Taken a much more positive, if defensive, route into the summer but who'll get the scores outside of Bernard Brogan when their second-best point-taker in the league was Eamonn Fennell? Do they have a half-forward line that can create, never mind score? And as Jimi might ponder, are they experienced?

Who they've lost Ciarán Whelan, Shane Ryan (retired), Jason Sherlock (out of favour), Paul Griffin, Mark Davoren (injured)

Who they've found A full-back in Rory O'Carroll, energetic centre-back Cian O'Sullivan and goal-getter Kevin McMenamin

Reality check Without the old dogs, could be caught in Leinster, but an All Ireland semi-final wouldn't be beyond them

If Pat Gilroy had a line in a sports movie "Never feel sorry for yourself. Remember, if you are training hard he may be training twice as hard. You just gotta keep coming back stronger." Matty Ferrigno, Pumping Iron

5. Mayo

Went from averaging 16 points and seven scorers a game during the the league to 12 points and four scorers in the final. Yet instead of letting the Cork game drain all their confidence, need to realise that getting to that game should give them confidence. That wouldn't be very Mayo, though.

Who they've lost James Nallen, David Heaney (retired)

Who they've found Forward Enda Varley and midfielder Seamus O'Shea

Reality check Cavan are the only non-Connacht team they've beaten in three championships. They'll have to change that.

If they had a line in a sports movie "There's only one thing to do. Win the whole f***ing thing." Jake Taylor, Major League

6. Armagh

They have a full-back that doesn't need the cover of the blanket, possibly the best half-back line in Ulster, while upfront a more creative and dynamic half-forward line means they're not so reliant on the diagonal ball into McDonnell and Clarke.

Who they've lost Aidan O'Rourke (retired)

Who they've found A real footballing full-back in Brendan Donaghy

Reality check If they can get out of Celtic Park next week, Ulster champions and dark horses for the All Ireland.

If Paddy O'Rourke had a line in a sports movie "Relax! Let's have some fun out here! This game's fun, okay?" Crash, Bull Durham

7. Galway

Since winning the All Ireland in 2001, Louth are the only non-Connacht team they've beaten in the championship. We'll say it as it is, Joe: your tenure won't be defined by Connacht titles but by beating big shots other than Mayo.

Who they've lost No one of note

Who they've found Left-footed corner-forward Eoin Concannon

Reality check Don't have enough 9-out-of-10 players to beat a Cork, Kerry or Tyrone, but have enough about them to stop losing to anyone else. All Ireland semi-finalists.

If Joe Kernan had a line in a sports movie "You think you can win on talent alone? Gentlemen, you don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." Herb Brooks, Miracle

8. Kildare

Right now there's an awful lot conspiring against this bunch. Dermot Earley will struggle to reproduce last year's form. John Doyle's confidence has taken a knock after kicking just six points from play this league, while there are also doubts over playmaker Mikey Conway's fitness and the form of James Kavanagh and Pádraig O'Neill.

Who they've lost Kevin O'Neill (opted out)

Who they've found Former under-21 hero Gary White, possibly at corner-back

Reality check Should scramble to a Leinster final but they'll have to up the 10 points per game they've been averaging over the last two months.

If they had a line in a sports movie "We will be perfect in every aspect of the game. You drop a pass, you run a mile. You miss a tackle, you run a mile. You fumble the football and I will break my foot off in your John Brown hind parts – and then you will run a mile." Herman Boone, Remember The Titans

9. Derry

The Cassidy Effect seems to have worn off. Yet if they can win next week in Celtic Park... And you know what they're like in Celtic Park...

Who they've lost Seán Marty Lockhart (retired), Chrissy McKeigue (AFL), Paul Murphy (opted out)

Who they've found Under-21 forward Declan Mullan

Reality check Could leave the championship at any time from the last 24 stage to the last four stage, but there will be no silverware

If Damian Cassidy had a line in a sports movie "Remember no one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around." Coach Dan Devine, Rudy

10. Monaghan

Conor McManus's continuing development means only Cork and Galway scored more in Division One. But if Armagh escape out of Celtic Park next week, it means that Banty's boys have to head to Armagh.

Who they've lost They're all pretty much back for more

Who they've found Wing -back Colin Walshe

Reality check If Derry win next week, Monaghan could win Ulster. Due a kinder draw in the qualifiers, so a run into August is possible.

If Seamus McEnaney had a line in a sports movie "Anyone else would have left you by now but I'm sticking with you. And if I have to ride your ass like Zorro, you're gonna show me the money." Rod Tidwell, Jerry Maguire

11. Meath

To mention the two All Ireland semi-finals in three years is brushing the rubbish under the rug. The really revealing stat is they haven't won two consecutive provincial matches since 2001. But Kevin Reilly is fit again and even a rickety platform should be enough for the best attack in Leinster.

Who they've lost No one of note

Who they've found Shane O'Rourke is back while Jamie Queeney is another pacey forward

Reality check Will have to take out Laois, Dublin and Kildare to win Leinster but we can see them doing it.

If they had a line in a sports movie "The worst thing that happened to you, that can happen to any fighter: you got civilized." Mickey, Rocky III

12. Donegal

Capable of anything, including reaching an Ulster final. But tend to capitulate when they meet any kind of physical power, as Cork last August and Armagh last month proved.

Who they've lost Brian Roper, Michael Hegarty (retired)

Who they've found Under-21 wing forward Mark McHugh, son of Martin

Reality check Possibly another breezy run through the qualifiers but no silverware

If they had a line in a sports movie "I missed a lot of good times, doing things that I shouldn't have been doing. There are certain mistakes I'd like to change but I'm not going to trip on it too hard." Jay Adams, Dogtown and Z-Boys

13. Down

After years of being one of the most generous defences in the country, wee James has brought some long-awaited fight to go with the flair. Might still be exposed against top opposition but Marty Clarke's return has been as significant as McCartan's.

Who they've lost Now that Dan Gordon's back, no one of note

Who they've found An old-school enforcing midfielder in Kalum King

Reality check Could be the year they finally reach an All Ireland quarter-final, but...

If James McCartan had a line in a sports movie "You're gonna have to learn your clichés... They're your friends. Write this down: 'We gotta play it one day at a time.'" Crash, Bull Durham

14. Laois

Capitulated shamelessly last year, but three of their four defeats this spring were by a point. Donie Kingston is providing a chorus where previously MJ Tierney was a monotonous solo artist.

Who they've lost Joe Higgins, (retired)

Who they've found Colm Begley's back after his stint Down Under

Reality check Will give some bigger names an awkward time in the qualifiers but no longer a big name themselves

If they were to hear a line in a sports movie

"You walk into a pool room with that go-go-go; the guys'll be killing each other, trying to get to you. You got that... But I'll tell you something, kiddo. You couldn't find Big Time if you had a road map." Eddie Felson, The Color of Money

15. Sligo

Three times in their eight league games they had seven scorers, twice they had eight scorers while the midfield are not only good in the air, but they also add to the attacking threat.

Who they've lost Michael McNamara, Brendan Egan (retired)

Who they've found Marauding midfielder Stephen Gilmartin

Reality check Mayo at home could make their year.

If they had a line in a sports movie "I'd like to work it out so that at the end, it's a pure guts race. If it is, I'm the only one who can win it." Steve Prefontaine, Without Limits

16. Antrim

For all their continued progress, they'll need to take down Tyrone in two weeks' time; a run in the qualifiers might not be enough to energise a potentially-jaded St Gall's crew.

Who they've lost Niall McKeever (AFL)

Who they've found The returning Seán Kelly

Reality check Capable of another shock victory this year but not two

If they had a line in a sports movie "I want to give him the heat and announce my presence with authority!" Nuke LaLoosh, Bull Durham

17. Tipperary

Reduce their league to one word and it wouldn't be 'relegation' but 'consolidation', such was their competitiveness in all but one of their games in Division Two. Are becoming the new Fermanagh: organised, honest and ferociously feisty but they overdo the short game, put an army of men behind the ball and lack some firepower upfront.

Who they've lost Eamonn Hanrahan (retired)

Who they've found Their very own Ciaran McDonald, only a full-back, not a playmaking forward

Reality check After next week's defeat to Kerry, a win or two in the qualifiers would be the least they deserved

If John Evans had a line in a sports movie "If you put your effort and concentration into playing to your potential, to be the best that you can be, I don't care what the scoreboard says, in my book we're gonna be winners!" Coach Norman Dale, Hoosiers

18. Wexford

Matty Forde is back doing damage with Kilanerin and combined with Ciarán Lyng's dead-ball striking and Redmond Barry's return to form, it makes them a lot better than 2009. But hardly as good as '08; the full-back line is still suspect.

Who they've lost Phillip Wallace, Seamus Cullen

Who they've found Corner-forward Ben Brosnan

Reality check Aren't ready for Dublin in the first round but could win a couple of qualifiers

If they had a line in a sports movie "Powderpuff punch and a glass jaw. That's a great combination." Eddie Willis, The Harder They Fall

19. Limerick

Have built nicely on last year. In midfield former Leinster rugby player Jim O'Donovan is now a legitimate partner to John Galvin, while upfront they're a more potent force.

Who they've lost Jason Stokes (retired)

Who they've found Eoghan O'Connor, an 18-year-old scoring supersub

Reality checkThe law of averages suggest they'll hardly scare either of Munster's Old Firm for a third straight summer but might finally make it to an All Ireland quarter-final.

If Mickey Ned O'Sullivan had a line in a sports movie "Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. I don't care how tough you are, it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it... It ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward... That's how winning is done!" Rocky, Rocky Balboa

[armaghniac]

20. Cavan

More than merely the Seánie Johnson Show; this spring they ran up 2-20, 0-20 and 0-17 against Roscommon, Offaly and Wexford respectively without a sign of Seánie. Tommy Carr has instilled an impressive sense of discipline too, all the while knowing he'll be the fall guy when their summer ends.

Who they've lost Jason Reilly, Larry Reilly (retired), Gareth Pierson, Michael Lyng, James O'Reilly (opted out)

Who they've found A clinker of a forward in Dublin native Gareth Smith

Reality check Should beat someone other than Fermanagh this year, but will they beat Fermanagh?

If Tommy Carr were to hear a line from a sports movie "You wanna fight. You fool. You damn stupid fool. Don't you understand? Can't you get it into your silly head? There are only eight champions in this business. Everybody else is an also-ran. The good's great but the bad stinks! Don't you understand? The odds are all you'll wind up a mumbling idiot! WHY DON'T YOU GO HOME?! GO HOME!" Maish Rennick, Requiem for A Heavyweight

21. Louth

No team in the country has averaged more goals per game this year. Then again, no team has had more players walk off and on the panel either. JP Rooney, Darren Clarke, Colm Judge and John O'Brien all quit only to return.

Who they've lost Stephen Reynolds

Who they've found Mark Brennan hit three goals in the league

Reality check Might crawl away from Longford but won't get past Kildare.

If they had a line in a sports movie "I find that if you have a goal, you might not reach it. But if you don't have one, then you are never disappointed. And I gotta tell ya, that just feels phenomenal." Peter La Fleur, Dodgeball

22. Wicklow

Can Jacko Dalton and James Stafford (right) swing the middle against Thomas Walsh and Brendan Murphy? Or does the nightmare follow the dream?

Who they've lost Thomas Walsh (Carlow)

Who they've found Jacko Dalton has re-emerged as an all-action midfielder

Reality check Could beat Westmeath in a Leinster quarter-final, could lose to Carlow in the first round. Who knows?

If Mick O'Dwyer had a line in a sports movie

"I don't mean to brag... but I'm the greatest!" Sidney Deane, White Men Can't Jump

23. Offaly

Have gone with youth after being in three of the last five Leinster minor finals. John Reynolds hit 0-25 from play in the league and Brian Conor and John Coughlan bring a freshness to the centre. Problem is two to seven where there isn't a dominant defender.

Who they've lost Thomas Deehan (opted out), Ger Rafferty, Conor Evans, Niall Smith

Who they've found Anton Sullivan, a fine forward but will play wing-back

Reality checkWill struggle away from Tullamore.

If they had a line in a sports movie"There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed, because you know things can't get any worse." Clark Kellogg, The Freshman

24. Westmeath

Dennis Glennon is back but he won't see enough of the ball and won't have a reasonable score to chase. A team that is a shadow of what's gone before with the added pressure of justifying their heave against Brendan Hackett.

Who they've lostJohn Keane, Derek Heavin, David O'Shaughnessy, Dessie Dolan (all opted out)

Who they've found Dual player Paul Greville

Reality check Need to enjoy their opener because it's downhill thereafter.

If Brendan Hackett had a line in a sports movie

"You asked for it, you got it." Arthur, Forget Paris

25. Waterford

A year on from being the subject of the delightful Working On A Dream, they've realised one, escaping from Division Four. Under John Owens they now play a more attacking brand of football, probably because they have so much more physical and scoring power upfront.

Who they've lostGer Power, Andy Hubbard, Eddie Rockett (all retired)

Who they've found Corner- back Kieran Connery and full- forward Rob Aherne.

Reality check Could sneak their way to a Munster final

If they had a line in a sports movie "And David put his hand in the bag and took out a stone and slung it. And it struck the Philistine on the head and he fell to the ground. Amen." Preacher Purl, Hoosiers

26. Fermanagh

After an encouraging McKenna Cup they went with too many youngsters and not enough veterans in the early rounds of the league before rushing too many of those ring-rusty veterans back. Ryan McCluskey should steady their defence now that his Portadown commitments finished with yesterday's Cup final and the return of Mark Little will add some dash in attack, but they'll hardly put up enough scores to win two championship games on the trot.

Who they've lost Barry Owens (injured), Mark Murphy (travel), Liam McBarron, Shane McDermott (retired), Eamon Maguire (opted out).

Who they've found Wing forward Ciarán Flaherty

Reality check The days of beating Division One and Two opposition appear over.

If they were to hear a line from a sports movie "'I'm just one punch away.' I remember the first time you told me that. And you were just one punch away from a title shot then. Don't you see? You'll always be just one punch away." Julie, The Set-Up

27. Roscommon

The dearth of players aged 23 to 29 means the present isn't bright but if they can avoid too many beatings and keep this side together, the future is promising.

Who they've lost Gary Cox (retired through injury)

Who they've found Scoring wing-back John Rogers

Reality check Connacht final but they could well be annihilated there.

If they had a line in a sports movie "You gotta have two things to win. You gotta have balls and you gotta have brains. Now, you got too much of one and not enough of the other." Eddie Felson, The Color of Money

28. Clare

Micheál McDermott has restored a sense of purpose and structure to Clare but their failure to seal promotion underlined old failings remain, like an overreliance on David Tubridy for scores.

Who they've lost Conor Whelan

Who they've found 21-year-old midfielder Gary Brennan

Reality check Making progress if they win a game this summer.

If they had a line in a sports movie "We don't have stars in this game, Mrs Weaver, that's [hurling]." Frank Machin, This Sporting Life

29. Longford

Of their five defeats this league the most they lost by was three points. Brian Kavanagh, Paul Barden and Kevin Mulligan were all missing and their summer opener could have been a lot harder.

Who they've lost Pádraig Berry, Kevin Smyth, David Barden

Who they've found Midfielder Brendan McIlvaney

Reality check Will go close against Louth but a lack of defensive pace will cost them.

If Glenn Ryan had a line in a sports movie "This frigging game is ruining my life." Hatch, Escape to Victory

30. Leitrim

Without the late Philly McGuinness, the injured Emlyn Mulligan and possibly Declan Maxwell too a win may be beyond them. Then again, it's just football.

Who they've lost Phillip McGuinness (deceased), Emlyn Mulligan (injury)

Who they've found Thomas Beirne in the centre

Reality check Narrow loss to the Rossies and then fodder for the qualifiers.

If they had a line in a sports movie "Sun don't shine on the same dog's ass everyday, but, mister [Moran], you ain't seen a ray of light since you got here." Opal Fleener, Hoosiers

31. Carlow

With Brendan Murphy back from Sydney Swans and Thomas Walsh back from next door they suddenly have the ball-winning ability to cause lesser teams big trouble.

Who they've lost None of note

Who they've found Influential midfielder Brendan Murphy

Reality check We've a feeling they'll bundle out Wicklow.

If they had a line in a sports movie "You know what they say, Chick. The next best thing to playing and winning is playing and losing." Speed, Hard Times

32. London

After all the talk how emigration will transform them, last week means the best performance from a foreign team this summer has already come and gone.

Reality check It's two and out this summer for these Londoners

If they had a line in a sports movie "Take me home, momma, and put me to bed. I've seen enough to know I've seen too much." Stadium announcer, A League Of Their Own

[mountainboii]

Independent had one today but it was a pretty shit effort. Little real analysis, just regurgitated stats and inane recaps of league performance. Ignored the vast majority of counties to focus on Dublin, Tyrone, Kerry and Cork. Would it have been too much to ask for something different instead of a by the numbers Sean Cavanagh interview? Colm Keys' take on the Ulster championship was particularly awful. No mention of the minor championship at all.

For the record the predictions were:

Vincent Hogan: Munster - Cork   Leinster - Dublin   Connacht - Mayo   Ulster - Down   AI - Cork   'Wildcard' - Derry
Martin Breheny: Munster - Kerry   Leinster - Dublin   Connacht - Mayo   Ulster - Tyrone   AI - Cork   'Wildcard' - Monaghan
Donnchadh Boyle: Munster - Cork   Leinster - Kildare   Connacht - Galway   Ulster - Tyrone   AI - Cork   'Wildcard' - Dublin
Cliona Foley: Munster - Cork   Leinster - Dublin   Connacht - Mayo   Ulster - Tyrone   AI - Cork   'Wildcard' - Sligo
Colm Keys: Munster - Cork   Leinster - Kildare   Connacht - Mayo   Ulster - Tyrone   AI - Cork   'Wildcard' - Dublin

[ross4life]

2002 22 September Croke Park Armagh 1-12 Kerry 0-14
2003 28 September Croke Park Tyrone 0-12 Armagh 0-9
2004 26 September Croke Park Kerry 1-20 Mayo 2-9
2005 25 September Croke Park Tyrone 1-16 Kerry 2-10
2006 17 September Croke Park Kerry 4-15 Mayo 3-5
2007 16 September Croke Park Kerry 3-13 Cork 1-9
2008 21 September Croke Park Tyrone 1-15 Kerry 0-14
2009 20 September Croke Park  Kerry 0-16 Cork 1-9

Imagine a final without Kerry or Tyrone?

[Zulu]

It would be a nice change alright.

[longrunsthefox]

I noticed Tribune yesterday they mentioned Cassidy as Tyrone's big find... shows what  a loss he is.

[IolarCoisCuain]

Lazy effort from the Irish Times today too.