Arlene watch - will we notice any difference?

[FermGael]

According to BBCNI, Foster only missed out on becoming MP for Fermanagh South Tyrone because the unionist majority vote was split. 

I guess that means that a candidate from the 'minority' nationalist community of FST, whose vote was also 'split', still managed to beat her by 5k votes in a constituency of what 60k voters? That must be a kick in the stones.

Thats wrong.  There is a nationalist majority in Fermanagh/South Tyrone. 
Traditionally there was always one unionist candidate and 2 nationalist(SF and SDLP).
The nationalist vote was split, and the unionist won.
They have always regarded Fermanagh/South Tyrone as their seat even though it had a nationalist majority

But last time the vast majority of nationalists threw vote behind SF even though SDLP ran.
There were 2 unionist candidates as well. DUP and  a united unionist candidate , Jim Nixon. 
But most threw there lot in with DUP. 
Sf won and the unionists were outraged.

[Evil Genius]

According to BBCNI, Foster only missed out on becoming MP for Fermanagh South Tyrone because the unionist majority vote was split. 

I guess that means that a candidate from the 'minority' nationalist community of FST, whose vote was also 'split', still managed to beat her by 5k votes in a constituency of what 60k voters? That must be a kick in the stones.

Thats wrong.  There is a nationalist majority in Fermanagh/South Tyrone. 
Traditionally there was always one unionist candidate and 2 nationalist(SF and SDLP).
The nationalist vote was split, and the unionist won.
They have always regarded Fermanagh/South Tyrone as their seat even though it had a nationalist majority

But last time the vast majority of nationalists threw vote behind SF even though SDLP ran.
There were 2 unionist candidates as well. DUP and  a united unionist candidate , Jim Nixon. 
But most threw there lot in with DUP. 
Sf won and the unionists were outraged.

You're confusing your elections, FG.

From a Unionist perspective, F&ST was always solidly UUP, with DUP and Vanguard etc having a neglible vote. Which was why, with the Nationalist vote split reasonably evenly, strong UUP candidates such as Ken Maginnis usually got home safely.

Of course, the DUP could never bear to accept this state of affairs, so in 2001 they saw their chance (or thought they did, at least). With the GFA etc putting Trimble/UUP under great pressure, the DUP wanted to undermine them, but didn't have the balls to come up with a challenger of their own (in fact, many would argue that they didn't have a credible figure locally).

Meanwhile, anti-GFA feeling coalesced around Jim Dixon, who had been horribly disfigured in the Poppy Day Massacre and so was in receipt of great personal sympathy, amongst local Unionists at least. He was persuaded to stand as a "united Unionist", though many people suspect he was being used by the DUP as a "stalking horse". (They deny it, of course, a denial which has about as much credibility as Iris Robinson's marriage vows, imo).

Anyhow, whilst never having a hope of winning, Dixon split the Unionist vote sufficiently for Gildernew (SF) to sneak in by a handful of votes over the UUP's Cooper (a new candidate, who had not yet Maginnis's personal appeal).

Of course, by the time then next Election came round (2005), the UUP vote had crumbled badly everywhere, and the DUP had picked up an anti-GFA protestor from the local UUP, a certain Arlene Foster!

However, as the subsequnet Poll showed, whilst she could shore up the DUP vote by appealing to Unionist waverers, she never had a hope of winning the seat, since the core UUP vote was never going to forgive her (or still won't).

Mind you, the silly bitch either couldn't or wouldn't admit this; indeed, she had the brass neck to stand up after the count and declare that "There are Unionists in this constituency who were determined to vote for 'Anyone but Arlene', even if it meant Michelle Gildernew getting in. Well they've got their wish..."

In the circumstances, her lack of graciousness was about as attractive as her appearance...  

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/constituency/942/fermanagh-and-south-tyrone

P.S. Some have speculated that one of the reasons for her interim appointment as FM is to shore up her image for the forthcoming General Election in F&ST, where the DUP vote may fall back again from the last time.

[orangeman]

Peter Robinson is hell bent on holding onto his political careeer and he'll be blaming Iris for all.


Would he be as devious as to let Arlene agree the deal on the devolution of policing and justice and then blame her when the brown stuff hits the fan ?



That way, he can say that the women were to blame for everything !

[Evil Genius]

.

Peter Robinson is hell bent on holding onto his political careeer and he'll be blaming Iris for all.


Would he be as devious as to let Arlene agree the deal on the devolution of policing and justice and then blame her when the brown stuff hits the fan ?



That way, he can that the women were to blame for everything !

Can't say I agree with much of what you posted elsewhere (Robinson thread), but you've got it spot on with this post, I'd say.

[Maguire01]

P.S. Some have speculated that one of the reasons for her interim appointment as FM is to shore up her image for the forthcoming General Election in F&ST, where the DUP vote may fall back again from the last time.

So will the TUV step in this time and split the Unionist vote 3 ways?

[red hander]

According to BBCNI, Foster only missed out on becoming MP for Fermanagh South Tyrone because the unionist majority vote was split. 

I guess that means that a candidate from the 'minority' nationalist community of FST, whose vote was also 'split', still managed to beat her by 5k votes in a constituency of what 60k voters? That must be a kick in the stones.

Thats wrong.  There is a nationalist majority in Fermanagh/South Tyrone. 
Traditionally there was always one unionist candidate and 2 nationalist(SF and SDLP).
The nationalist vote was split, and the unionist won.
They have always regarded Fermanagh/South Tyrone as their seat even though it had a nationalist majority

But last time the vast majority of nationalists threw vote behind SF even though SDLP ran.
There were 2 unionist candidates as well. DUP and  a united unionist candidate , Jim Nixon. 
But most threw there lot in with DUP. 
Sf won and the unionists were outraged.

You're confusing your elections, FG.

From a Unionist perspective, F&ST was always solidly UUP, with DUP and Vanguard etc having a neglible vote. Which was why, with the Nationalist vote split reasonably evenly, strong UUP candidates such as Ken Maginnis usually got home safely.

Of course, the DUP could never bear to accept this state of affairs, so in 2001 they saw their chance (or thought they did, at least). With the GFA etc putting Trimble/UUP under great pressure, the DUP wanted to undermine them, but didn't have the balls to come up with a challenger of their own (in fact, many would argue that they didn't have a credible figure locally).

Meanwhile, anti-GFA feeling coalesced around Jim Dixon, who had been horribly disfigured in the Poppy Day Massacre and so was in receipt of great personal sympathy, amongst local Unionists at least. He was persuaded to stand as a "united Unionist", though many people suspect he was being used by the DUP as a "stalking horse". (They deny it, of course, a denial which has about as much credibility as Iris Robinson's marriage vows, imo).

Anyhow, whilst never having a hope of winning, Dixon split the Unionist vote sufficiently for Gildernew (SF) to sneak in by a handful of votes over the UUP's Cooper (a new candidate, who had not yet Maginnis's personal appeal).

Of course, by the time then next Election came round (2005), the UUP vote had crumbled badly everywhere, and the DUP had picked up an anti-GFA protestor from the local UUP, a certain Arlene Foster!

However, as the subsequnet Poll showed, whilst she could shore up the DUP vote by appealing to Unionist waverers, she never had a hope of winning the seat, since the core UUP vote was never going to forgive her (or still won't).

Mind you, the silly bitch either couldn't or wouldn't admit this; indeed, she had the brass neck to stand up after the count and declare that "There are Unionists in this constituency who were determined to vote for 'Anyone but Arlene', even if it meant Michelle Gildernew getting in. Well they've got their wish..."

In the circumstances, her lack of graciousness was about as attractive as her appearance...  

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/constituency/942/fermanagh-and-south-tyrone

P.S. Some have speculated that one of the reasons for her interim appointment as FM is to shore up her image for the forthcoming General Election in F&ST, where the DUP vote may fall back again from the last time.

Out of the 11 MPs who have represented the constituency since its formation in 1950, seven have been nationalist, so to say strong candidates like Maginness usually got home safely isn't entirely correct.  Also, one of the four unionist candidates, Grosvenor, only got the seat by default as the Sinn Fein candidate in the 1955 election, Phillip Clarke, was in prison at the time of the election and was debarred by the 'indepentent' court system of the statelet, allowing runner-up Grosvenor to take the seat.

Ken Maginness's tenure was down to the fact he was the only unionist candidate at election time (I think), while the nationalist vote was split between Sinn Fein and the SDLP.  That's what allowed the UUP to hold the seat after Owen Carron.  The end of one unionist candidate meant the split in the unionist vote led to Gildernew getting in, the Shinners in the constituency being much stronger than the SDLP.  I don't see how the UUP can regard it as naturally 'their' seat... if that's the case then they're seriously deluded

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

P.S. Some have speculated that one of the reasons for her interim appointment as FM is to shore up her image for the forthcoming General Election in F&ST, where the DUP vote may fall back again from the last time.

So will the TUV step in this time and split the Unionist vote 3 ways?

I can't see the TUV standing in constituencies where they could conceivably cost Unionism a seat. I'd say they'll focus on safe Unionist seat and particularly constituencies where they think they have a chance of winning.

[Orior]

Anyone else here the clergyman on the radio this morning praising the brave move on decommissioning by the UDA.

What was brave about it?

[Onlooker]

Reading some information on the 2 DUP ladies in the news these days, I noticed that Iris Robinson's maiden name was Collins and Arlene Foster's maiden name was Kelly (2 good Irish names).  I don't think either of those ladies would have to go back very far in their family histories to find Catholic (and Nationalist) ancestors.  I am a little bit surprised that some enterprising journalist has not done a bit of research.

[johnneycool]

.

Peter Robinson is hell bent on holding onto his political careeer and he'll be blaming Iris for all.


Would he be as devious as to let Arlene agree the deal on the devolution of policing and justice and then blame her when the brown stuff hits the fan ?



That way, he can that the women were to blame for everything !

Can't say I agree with much of what you posted elsewhere (Robinson thread), but you've got it spot on with this post, I'd say.

I thought Arlene was only looking after the mundane day to day activities of the FM whilst Peadar would still have his hand on the tiller for the big policing and justice issues?