Author Topic: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.  (Read 158531 times)

Orior

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #75 on: November 20, 2015, 05:11:25 PM »
The article and the study do precisely zero to challenge the view that a united ireland is not currently viable

In other words....., the article challenges the view that a United Ireland is viable?
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smelmoth

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #76 on: November 20, 2015, 05:16:39 PM »
The article and the study do precisely zero to challenge the view that a united ireland is not currently viable

In other words....., the article challenges the view that a United Ireland is viable?

No

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #77 on: November 20, 2015, 05:34:54 PM »
The 6 counties are in the classic position of the guy getting welfare who does the sums and reckons  that any job he can get will not pay more than the welfare, even though the guy next door with a job  is doing well. The guy next door had a small reverse in the recession having borrowed too much for his Merc,  and welfare guy sneered at this, but now things are looking up and a new Merc looks a likely prospect. Of course, just as if individuals  got a job than the pay would improve over time to figure well beyond that available on welfare, this does not impress in the short term and economic reports with a similar message about the 6 counties get a similar response.
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omaghjoe

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #78 on: November 20, 2015, 05:47:15 PM »
Surprised no one has picked-up on this, though I don't suppose it fits with the standard that we can't afford it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unification-of-ireland-could-bring-in-36-5bn-in-eight-years-1.2435505

Unification of Ireland ‘could bring in €36.5bn in eight years’


New study claims unification could lead to a significant boost in GDP for the island

Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics.

The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.

The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.

Economic models
The Modelling Irish Unification study, launched at the Harvard Club in Manhattan, examines three unification scenarios, using economic models developed by Dr Renger Herman van Nieuwkoop, a professor of economics at ETH Zürich.

These models assume five key scenarios which would play out as a result of unification.

First was the harmonisation of the tax systems across the island with the North adopting the tax rates and regulations of the Republic, which the researchers said would encourage more foreign direct investment in Northern Ireland.

The second assumption was that unification would reduce trade barriers and cut transport and currency transaction costs between the North, the Republic and other euro zone countries.

The model also presumed Northern Ireland would adopt the euro, a move which it said would in the short term boost economic output because of the strength of sterling.

Productivity
The fourth scenario predicted that unification would deliver productivity improvements – researchers pointed out that there is currently a sizeable productivity gap between the North and the Republic which they say is mainly to blame in the difference between the industrial structures of the two economies.

Finally, the model also looked at current fiscal transfers and noted that Northern Ireland’s current fiscal deficit – more than £9 billion – would have to be financed by the Republic.

However, it also notes that unification would create just one government structure and associated savings could in the long term be reinvested in the private economy or public projects.

According to Dr Hübner, the results show that the Northern Ireland economy would enjoy significant long-term improvements from unification.

“While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy.”

Thu, Nov 19, 2015, 01:00

The article and the study do precisely zero to challenge the my view that a united ireland is not currently viable

Fixed that for ye

seafoid

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #79 on: November 20, 2015, 05:48:42 PM »
The 6 counties are in the classic position of the guy getting welfare who does the sums and reckons  that any job he can get will not pay more than the welfare, even though the guy next door with a job  is doing well. The guy next door had a small reverse in the recession having borrowed too much for his Merc,  and welfare guy sneered at this, but now things are looking up and a new Merc looks a likely prospect. Of course, just as if individuals  got a job than the pay would improve over time to figure well beyond that available on welfare, this does not impress in the short term and economic reports with a similar message about the 6 counties get a similar response.
the welfare is supposed to help NI get back on its feet but it's not doing anything.
The Troubles destroyed an awful lot of businesses that never got going again.
I think back in 93 or so there was nowhere you could buy a cup of coffee in Belfast. Nobody hung around the city centre long enough for such fripperies.
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gallsman

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #80 on: November 20, 2015, 06:13:27 PM »
Unfortunately, now we've gone too f**king far the other way where there are any number of places that will happily gouge you for a cup of shite coffee and the city breeds the type of **** who comes up with notions like opening cafes that only sell cereal. And then gouging people for it.
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armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #81 on: November 20, 2015, 06:32:04 PM »
'Gouging' people for a bowl of cereal is still better than gouging people for their religion.
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omaghjoe

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #82 on: November 20, 2015, 06:36:32 PM »
'Gouging' people for a bowl of cereal is still better than gouging people for their religion. Nationalist affiliation

Can ye get a bowl of porridge in them there places?

muppet

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #83 on: November 20, 2015, 08:57:18 PM »
Surprised no one has picked-up on this, though I don't suppose it fits with the standard that we can't afford it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unification-of-ireland-could-bring-in-36-5bn-in-eight-years-1.2435505

Unification of Ireland ‘could bring in €36.5bn in eight years’


New study claims unification could lead to a significant boost in GDP for the island

Political and economic unification of Ireland could potentially deliver a €35.6 billion boost in GDP for the island in the first eight years, according to a US study of reunification by two prominent academics.

The economic research, launched in New York, suggests economic unification could possibly deliver a more sizeable boost in economic output and incomes in the North, with a predicted 4-7.5 per cent long-term improvement in GDP.

The study, which involved a number of researchers led by Dr Kurt Hübner, director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia, also highlighted that the Republic would see a more modest boost of between 0.7 to 1.2 per cent in GDP per capita.

Economic models
The Modelling Irish Unification study, launched at the Harvard Club in Manhattan, examines three unification scenarios, using economic models developed by Dr Renger Herman van Nieuwkoop, a professor of economics at ETH Zürich.

These models assume five key scenarios which would play out as a result of unification.

First was the harmonisation of the tax systems across the island with the North adopting the tax rates and regulations of the Republic, which the researchers said would encourage more foreign direct investment in Northern Ireland.

The second assumption was that unification would reduce trade barriers and cut transport and currency transaction costs between the North, the Republic and other euro zone countries.

The model also presumed Northern Ireland would adopt the euro, a move which it said would in the short term boost economic output because of the strength of sterling.

Productivity
The fourth scenario predicted that unification would deliver productivity improvements – researchers pointed out that there is currently a sizeable productivity gap between the North and the Republic which they say is mainly to blame in the difference between the industrial structures of the two economies.

Finally, the model also looked at current fiscal transfers and noted that Northern Ireland’s current fiscal deficit – more than £9 billion – would have to be financed by the Republic.

However, it also notes that unification would create just one government structure and associated savings could in the long term be reinvested in the private economy or public projects.

According to Dr Hübner, the results show that the Northern Ireland economy would enjoy significant long-term improvements from unification.

“While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy.”

Thu, Nov 19, 2015, 01:00

IMHO this is the direction the discourse on a UI should go.

Everyone has principles until it comes to their money. Look at Paul Murphy.
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larryin89

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #84 on: November 20, 2015, 10:30:42 PM »
Reading this I find that a lot of people are happy enough with the status quo. Cant imagine why.

I don't think it's a case of being "happy enough". Its more a case of it makes no difference which shower of pricks rule over us.

A part of me agrees with that benny. I'd always consider myself republican minded but as one gets on in years , year by year you start to think ,whats it all about anyway , what would it mean ? Not a lot as we would just be ruled by the same politics . Unless there is going to be a revolution of connolyites to take over , I just don't see what difference it would make .

Working class people all over the world not just on this island are fooked , low pay , shit conditions that worsen and worsen year by year . That is the only way IMO if some genius found a way of establishing a common bond between both cultures through a fight for workers pay and conditions in the o6c . Funny enough after reading Joe Cahill s book recently he touched on it too in describing how the nationalist community missed a chance to join forces with a unionist workers strike in the 50s .
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seafoid

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #85 on: November 20, 2015, 10:35:07 PM »
NI is small enough to encourage game changing fdi in one sphere of industry. Become a core for it. Tool up the universities, support spin offs. It could be doing a lot more.
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Farrandeelin

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #86 on: November 20, 2015, 10:40:10 PM »
If you could offer 'Britain' a binary choice between having or not having sovereignty over the North, I think they'd take it. My wife is always fulminating against the perfidious Jocks, but she went awful quiet when it looked like they might leave the Union. The end of The United Kingdom would be too much to bear.

Would the Tories et al focus on trying to keep NI in the UK, like they did with Scotland, if a referendum ever comes to pass??
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armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #87 on: November 20, 2015, 10:50:41 PM »
NI is small enough to encourage game changing fdi in one sphere of industry. Become a core for it. Tool up the universities, support spin offs. It could be doing a lot more.

Well recent UU cuts included maths, computing and several languages. That doesn't sound like tooling up for FDI, it is just tooling.

If you could offer 'Britain' a binary choice between having or not having sovereignty over the North, I think they'd take it. My wife is always fulminating against the perfidious Jocks, but she went awful quiet when it looked like they might leave the Union. The end of The United Kingdom would be too much to bear.

Would the Tories et al focus on trying to keep NI in the UK, like they did with Scotland, if a referendum ever comes to pass??

Whatever about deiseach's wife, I think the London establishment think of "Britain" as requiring Scotland, but NI is an appendage whose loss would be scarcely noticed. The real danger, IMHO, is that NI would not be given flexibility in things where it should be, in order to prevent Scotland having it. And while Tories are imperialist in nature, they don't like spending public money, something all sections in NI agree on. 
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Franko

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #88 on: November 21, 2015, 02:24:35 AM »
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

Very possibly, but without the years of malfunction that was brought about by the partition of the country, who's to say something else wouldn't have replaced it.
Are there any examples of other cities in the UK that have gone on to prosper after having their main industry decimated? I think of places like Liverpool and Glasgow and think call centres  ::)

In a united country, why would the north have fared any worse (or any better) than any other region in Ireland, no matter what parliament was pulling the strings?

Had the country stayed under British rule, the north would have received a greater slice of the goodies from Westminster, I don't think anyone would logically argue with that.

Had we become one entity, ruled from Dublin, why would the north not have gotten it's share of the tech/pharma/financial influx, in the same manner that, say, Cork did?

The only reason the economy of the north is in the state it is in currently, is the blueshirt's border.


Edit... the north is not a city....
It's the border of Protestant Antrim and North Down. The other 4 counties were thrown in for ballast. The blueshirts had zero leverage.
Dev for all his republican bluster did nothing about it.
The Border Commission never met either.

I'm well aware of the geographical locations of the main Protestant populations.  The problem is that those sell-outs voted FOR the other counties to be lumped in.  The people of South Derry, South Armagh, the bogside - every bit as Irish (and more) as those treacherous cowards who said 'ya know what, I'm sick of fighting the Brits, let's shaft these poor cnuts in the north and we'll get what we're after'.  When you think about it, it's no wonder the gov't in the 26 are such a shower of self-serving pricks.  The whole entity was formed by such creatures.

omaghjoe

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #89 on: November 21, 2015, 03:35:49 AM »
Would there ever be a situation whereby the brits would give up the north? It's bound to have crossed their minds with the problems it causes them. Self Inflicted of course. Some crying from the unionists then. Can't see it happening but how fantastic would that be!

I genuinely don't believe they want it, its a noose around their neck, only for northern unionists I think they would have got rid of it long ago.
The Brits are very decent in hanging onto the north. Not even a mother could love it.
They have a strong sense of responsibility in subsidising the place.

Yep, a lot more decent that our brethren in the 26 who were more than happy to cut it loose.

Don't forget - before that little faux pas by our blueshirt friends, the economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland was Belfast.

The shipyards would have closed regardless.

Very possibly, but without the years of malfunction that was brought about by the partition of the country, who's to say something else wouldn't have replaced it.
Are there any examples of other cities in the UK that have gone on to prosper after having their main industry decimated? I think of places like Liverpool and Glasgow and think call centres  ::)

In a united country, why would the north have fared any worse (or any better) than any other region in Ireland, no matter what parliament was pulling the strings?

Had the country stayed under British rule, the north would have received a greater slice of the goodies from Westminster, I don't think anyone would logically argue with that.

Had we become one entity, ruled from Dublin, why would the north not have gotten it's share of the tech/pharma/financial influx, in the same manner that, say, Cork did?

The only reason the economy of the north is in the state it is in currently, is the blueshirt's border.


Edit... the north is not a city....
It's the border of Protestant Antrim and North Down. The other 4 counties were thrown in for ballast. The blueshirts had zero leverage.
Dev for all his republican bluster did nothing about it.
The Border Commission never met either.

I'm well aware of the geographical locations of the main Protestant populations.  The problem is that those sell-outs voted FOR the other counties to be lumped in.  The people of South Derry, South Armagh, the bogside - every bit as Irish (and more) as those treacherous cowards who said 'ya know what, I'm sick of fighting the Brits, let's shaft these poor cnuts in the north and we'll get what we're after'.  When you think about it, it's no wonder the gov't in the 26 are such a shower of self-serving pricks.  The whole entity was formed by such creatures.

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