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Messages - seafoid

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GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Mayo - Super 8s Round 1
« on: July 17, 2019, 03:07:20 PM »
Mayo are 28/1 for Sam on oddschecker

GAA Discussion / Re: Jimmy McGuinness
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:04:22 AM »
He might be happier as a corporate adviser or some kind of teacher
Soccer is a brutal business

That is why the rewards are good if you are good!
Yeah. But even if you are good you have a high chance of failure.
McGuinness has a family. At some point the dream has to start
producing returns . Other avenues are probably more promising.

GAA Discussion / Re: Jimmy McGuinness
« on: July 16, 2019, 10:43:16 PM »
He might be happier as a corporate adviser or some kind of teacher
Soccer is a brutal business

Goals get the crowd going

Teams who are doing well might score a few points in a row but a goal against the run of play can change the flow of a game. 2 goals within 5 minutes can finish off a team

General discussion / Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« on: July 16, 2019, 11:11:36 AM »

Boris Johnson's Brexit plan – and what Europe might make of it
•    Peter Foster, europe editor
15 JULY 2019 • 12:00PM
As Boris Johnson prepares to enter Downing Street later this month there is plentiful speculation on his plan to deliver Brexit.
But not all speculation is idle and at a Telegraph event last week Mr Johnson set out in clear and methodical fashion how he believes Brexit can be achieved by October 31 and, as he put it, “p***k the twin puffballs” of the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party.
The plan, as he spelled it out, has four main planks and starts from the supposition that the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May must now be considered “defunct”.
Mr Johnson argued that after three failed votes in Parliament that divorce package - which agreed the rights of EU citizens, a £39bn financial settlement and created space to address the future of the Irish border - must now be “disaggregated” in order to be implemented.
First, Mr Johnson said, the rights of the 3.2m citizens resident in the UK after Brexit must be protected. That part of the deal will be taken “out of the otherwise defunct Withdrawal Agreement and put it into law”. He thinks this should have happened at the outset.
Second, the £39bn so-called Brexit ‘bill’ must be suspended “in a state of creative ambiguity over the talks” while a Free Trade Agreement is negotiated - but Mr Johnson is also clear that he will pay up front for a “standstill” transition period after exit day, if the EU is prepared to grant it.
At the same time, he’s happy to reach separate agreements on issues like EU civil servants’ pensions; the settlement of court cases still live at the point of Brexit and, on a bilateral basis, address the questions posed by Gibraltar and the management of UK bases in Cyprus.
Third, having tidied up these issues, Mr Johnson proposes that the Irish backstop be “kicked out” and instead the issue of the Irish border - and “indeed every other border” - gets settled “where those questions logically belong in the context of the Free Trade Agreement”.
In essence, the UK still promises to engage fully in the hunt for “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border (as the EU has already offered in the current agreement) but without the Irish backstop effectively pre-determining the outcome of that process.
Because as it stands, says Mr Johnson, the backstop means either remaining entirely in the EU’s Customs Union and single market, or leaving Northern Ireland stranded alone inside it. This, he says, is an “appalling choice” that no British prime minister can accept.
Boris Johnson addresses a crowd of Telegraph readers at an exclusive hustings event  CREDIT: PAUL GROVER
Fourth, and looming intentionally over all this, is for the UK to prepare for ‘no deal’ with “confidence and brio”, so that the EU is very clear that the cost of refusing the UK a transition on these terms is a “WTO-only Brexit” that hurts both sides, especially Ireland.
To summarise the pitch in Mr Johnson’s own words: “We’ll get a great deal; we’ll get a protraction of the existing arrangements; then we’ll come out and solve the Irish border problems in the negotiations on free trade.”
To many British ears, this will sound eminently reasonable - offering to look after EU citizens, to pay for a transition and then work hard on the technology needed to create a minimally disruptive border in Ireland when the UK leaves the EU single market and customs union.
But to the European side it sounds as entirely unreasonable - a charter for ‘free-riding’ on the EU that it would be political suicide for the other 27 government to accept. Taking each part of Mr Johnson’s plan in turn:
First, the offer to guarantee citizens’ rights is hardly seen in Brussels as an act of generous statesmanship, but rather one of common decency. It has, in any case, already been promised by Mrs May’s government and is necessary to win reciprocal protections for UK citizens in the EU.
Second, the threat to parlay the Brexit ‘bill’ into a future relationship recalls David Davis’s efforts to attach conditionality to the payments, promising the ‘row of the summer’ on the subject. As it happened, it lasted a single morning on the first day of talks in June 2017.
Given that even in a ‘no deal’ there will still need to be a host of other agreements to maintain a minimally disruptive environment, the EU bets on a similar capitulation. In short, EU officials and diplomats reckon that in time - one way or another - they will get their money.
Third Mr Johnson appears to want to ‘pay to play’ in the EU while he negotiates an FTA, but without submitting to any of the oversight that other EU players must accept in the form of the European Court of Justice, or the arbitration mechanisms agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement.
“Who wouldn’t want that?,” asks one EU diplomat. “If Britain was allowed to cherry-pick, why wouldn’t everyone? The EU doesn’t run on gentleman’s agreements and the Brits must know that by now.”
There is only one legally coherent way that the UK can leave and still effectively remain a member state while they negotiate a trade deal, and that is via the Article 50 process - the ‘transition period’ is the carrot, but it comes with legal safeguards for the EU. Otherwise it is just free-riding.
Fourth, proposing to fix the Irish border problem as part of trade talks is effectively re-stating a problem without offering a solution.
Mr Johnson wants to leave the EU single market and customs union, but that makes if very hard to maintain an ‘invisible’ border in Ireland which was only possible in the first place as a result of the UK’s membership of those institutions.
The backstop was an insurance policy that was required precisely because the UK side could not explain how it would preserve that open border, having refused the EU offer to put a ‘de-dramatised’ trade border in the Irish Sea.
Prominent supporters of Mr Johnson have recently created a package of ‘alternative arrangements’ that they admit will require some new checks in Ireland, but the truth is no-one in Dublin, Brussels (or Whitehall) is convinced.
Those arrangements were recently presented to the bilateral British-Irish Chamber of Commerce which witheringly concluded “that they lack credibility in the reality of how all-island trade actually works”.
An extended transition period, which has been mooted in some quarters, might provide time and political space to find solutions - but again, that transition offer only exists via Article 50, with all the financial and legal strings attached.
Which brings us back to a ‘no deal’ and Mr Johnson’s preparedness to go down the route in order to force the EU to compromise on some or all of the above - whether agreeing to time-limit the Irish backstop or perhaps a longer transition that obviates the need to ever use it.
Mr Johnson reckons that the EU will blink - to get their hands on the £39bn, to get shot of Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party awkward squad from Brussels and to avoid seeing the UK plough its own furrow and make a fist of going it alone.
“If they force us into a WTO Brexit and we survive and prosper as I think everyone in this audience thinks we can, that will massively damage the credibility of the EU,” he says, “undermining of their own credibility and the project fear they have helped inspire.”
This is a seductive campaign narrative, and the EU side is fully aware that it will be blamed on the British side of the Channel if a ‘no deal’ does occur because Mr Johnson’s reasonable demands have not been met. Some in Europe even read his ‘plan’ as a coded request for a ‘no deal’.
But it is also noted on the EU side that the two cabinet ministers - Liam Fox and Michael Gove - who run departments directly affected by a ‘no deal’ are among its least enthusiastic proponents. In office, they wonder if Mr Johnon’s enthusiasm will wane too.
When Mr Johnson gets into the lonely cockpit of the highest office in the land, they bet he will blink too - and even if he doesn’t, the consequences of a ‘no deal’ will, sooner or later, force Mr Johnson to accept much that he now rejects.
Even the free trade agreement that Mr Johnson seeks in the event of a ‘no deal’ will come with heavy strings attached - on competition, state aid and regulations - to ensure the ‘level playing field’. This will be doubly so for an economy the size and proximity of the UK.
In short, the EU still sees a new British PM having limited room to move. A Northern Ireland civil service assessment paper released this week warned that a ‘no deal’ could cost 40,000 jobs in Northern Ireland, having a “profound and long-lasting impact on NI’s economy and society”.
In concrete terms, that means 1 in 5 jobs, up to £180m in lost exports to Northern Ireland and £120m in services trade; a sharp reduction in inward investment and all that before societal and political risks of reigniting a simmering sectarian conflict.
Such independent research might be dismissed as ‘project fear’ in an election campaign but, many in the EU privately surmise, will weigh rather more heavily on any British prime minister in the lonely sanctity of their private office.
Come October we shall find out.

GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Mayo - Super 8s Round 1
« on: July 16, 2019, 10:20:17 AM »

The stats of that game are not merely interesting, they are startling. Just take Mayo’s first-half turnovers – I counted 13. But the type of error they committed fascinated me: eight foot-passes to Kerry men and one over the side line. Two kickouts: one directly over the sideline and one went straight to a Kerry player.
Two hand-passes went to Kerry players. Seven consecutive turnovers were kick-passes. This was a bizarre run of errors. How much pressure were the Mayo players under when they made these mistakes? Not much at all, it turns out. It just looked like a complete breakdown of their skills execution. You cannot build a winning platform when you are giving the ball away that cheaply.
Add in, then, that the Mayo kickout was completely dismantled: seven long kicks out lost in the first half which gave David Moran a plethora of “marks”. Mayo couldn’t get the ball moving with any speed in the middle sector of the field.
And then in the second half, they committed crazy technical errors – a double-hop; two pick-ups off the ground; three over-carries. It all made me wonder: how focused were they here? How concentrated were they? And they seemed a little bit unbothered to me afterwards. Going around shaking hands like gentlemen, not looking particularly perturbed.
Beating heart
James Horan sounded very ready to forget it. If you think about it, the idea they were going to outrun and out-tempo Kerry in their fourth consecutive championship weekend in a match that meant everything to Kerry was pushing it. Not to say they went out to lose intentionally, but the mood for do-or-die is set during the week. And maybe it just wasn’t that for James Horan’s team.
Mayo got a big rub of the green in that they are playing an emerging Super 8 team in Meath next week. In Killarney, they did not put in the effort and energy that would make you think that their championship life depended on the result. Why? Because it did not. The stakes were different for Kerry – the importance of not being bullied by Mayo; of minding the Killarney record, of making a statement . . . it was huge.
But maybe in the meeting room during the week, this game was just not uppermost in Mayo priorities. And once you set that tone, the savage edge that is vital to a winning camp – and is the beating heart of Mayo – becomes diluted
So this weekend will tell us a lot about Mayo. We have already learned about Kerry. I think it is safe to say they will qualify for the All-Ireland semi-finals and probably as group winners. A scenario could emerge where three teams are on four points in the group. But the smart money is on Kerry in pole position with Donegal in second place. However, Mayo remain a very dangerous team: written off – again – and believed to be vulnerable.

Laois / Re: 2019 All-Ireland Senior Hurling Championship
« on: July 15, 2019, 08:45:56 PM »
I’d say that it will be fine tuned over the winter. The result vs the Dubs was probably unexpected when the programme was being put together.

GAA Discussion / Re: Galway V Mayo R4 Qualifier
« on: July 15, 2019, 05:06:20 PM »
Last year was progress certainly, this year I would have expected Galway to build on that but sadly it didn't pan out like that at all in the Championship.
I personally have no issue with the style of play employed by KW at all once it's effective, working and winning matches, I have seen enough "nice" ineffective football from the Galway county team to last me a lifetime. I would have been happy to see any incremental improvement this year (not necessarily an All Ireland final appearance either but in terms of how the team played) but the performances were bad all through the business end of the year, I mean even in London I was watching the match thinking "we're playing pure useless". If we had played well and just got caught out by another team playing out of their skins then that's easy to accept. Some of the criticism of KW has been way over the top but at the end of the day the results and performances don't lie.
If KW changes up a few things and has better luck with injuries then maybe he can turn it around next year again, I'm sure he thinks this himself and I hope he's right but history isn't on his side.

For all the mockery, the "68 years and counting" etc. our nearest and dearest across the border have contested 7 All Ireland finals (including the replay) in the period since the Galway Seniors last saw the Croke Park sod on All Ireland final day, they took some serious lumps in 04/06 but this decade they have inspired the next generation in Mayo, regardless of Sam Maguire not making it to Castlebar.
Seafoid's point about not getting there just to lose is valid but at what point do you look around and start thinking "Are we ever going to get back there?", because to be fully honest I always expected Galway to come back to the top end at some point, nationally our lot has been periods of drought punctuated by the odd great team, but this trough period is as bad as it's been at this stage and we are in a worse position today than we were in August 2018.

The intro to a year til Sunday shows the 3 lost finals of the 70s . Very like Mayo recently, in fact.  What good did they do anyone?

83 could have gone either way. Didn't lead to anything either.
98 didn't need a lost final.  They just turned up and executed the plan.
The hurlers have lost enough finals for the next millennium.
There have been 3 really great Galway teams:

1930s had 34 and 38
1960s had 3 in a row
late 90s had 98 and 01

Outliers were 1925 and 1956
9 football all Irelands is a great haul for a dual county , in fairness. Together with the hurling it comes comes to around 1 per decade.

An uncle of my father, from hurling country in Turloughmore, used to say that the men around Clonberne and beyond were different. If they got a team together they could beat anyone, even Kerry.  What is frustrating about now is the mediocrity after a good few years of incremental progress.
 I wouldn't swap 2001 for all the Mayo finals since.

GAA Discussion / Re: Galway V Mayo R4 Qualifier
« on: July 15, 2019, 01:49:37 PM »
Hard to be optimistic at the minute for 2020 if it stays as is.
We are now also well into our longest All Ireland football final appearance drought since we first made it to one in 1919.

I wouldn't be too worried about losing all Irelands as a measure of quality
It never did Mayo any use

I read yesterday that this decade is the first since the 1890s in which Cork hurlers didn't win an all Ireland. That must hurt 

Hurling Discussion / Re: Hurling Championship 2019
« on: July 15, 2019, 11:03:10 AM »

Nicky English: Kilkenny look fine tuned while Tipp still off key
Greater intensity in Leinster championship vindicated as brittle Cork are shattered
Nicky English

Three teams came to Croke Park looking for some form of redemption and another on a lap of honour, which they duly achieved with flying colours, but only one of the others found what they wanted.
It has been a sub-plot of the championship as to how the provincial championships measure up to each other. I had come to the suspicion that although Leinster wasn’t as aesthetically pleasing as Munster and certainly not in the same category as a score-fest, it had been tougher and more intense.
That was more or less vindicated by the first quarter-final between Kilkenny and Cork. At first it looked like Cork were more menacing and better at creating space for the likes of Darragh Fitzgibbon and Mark Coleman to get on the ball and there were red lights flashing inside with Patrick Horgan and Alan Cadogan unmarkable.
They made a great start but inevitably Kilkenny dug in and Cork had problems. The team missed goals by taking wrong options and ultimately undermined themselves by bad wides and poor decision making. Too many players were not playing well and Mark Ellis was under pressure even if Stephen McDonnell’s hard work marking TJ Reid was a rare positive for them.
This was the strongest Kilkenny team of the championship and there was an expectation of improved performance based on the likely contributions of Cillian Buckley, Richie Hogan and Walter Walsh.
Physical presence
It didn’t work out for Buckley, whose return from injury has been fitful, but Hogan took his goal well and looks to be coming back into form at just the right time and there was a huge contribution from Walsh when he came on for the second half and was able to use his physical presence to disrupt the Cork defence.
The second-half response of Kilkenny was emphatic and they destroyed the Cork re-starts. When Anthony Nash went short, he used Seán O’Donoghue, who got caught in possession and was turned over, and when he went long Kilkenny were eating the puck-outs.
They managed just one point in 20 minutes and then Horgan, unusually on the day, hit a desperately poor wide and the whole game looked as if it was over. It was to his credit that he ended up inspiring the Cork comeback but ultimately Kilkenny seized the day.
They were cynical when they had to be and knew how to battle whereas maybe we’ve seen this before from Cork – disappointing ends to the season in Croke Park. Conor Lehane was replace again on Sunday and when the chips were down, there was too much inconsistency across the team performance.
They were massively dependent on Horgan to pull them through and he gave a tour de force, in fairness to him, but on the day Kilkenny looked to be an improving force, with their injuries clearing up among experienced players.
This win was all the more impressive for the fact that TJ Reid wasn’t expected to fight fires all around the place. He was well man-marked again, this time by Stephen McDonnell but whereas against Wexford when Matt O’Hanlon did well on him, he didn’t have the support, this time he did and Brian Cody will be rightly pleased.
They’ve found the much sought-after redemption but more crucially they have momentum and while Limerick are still All-Ireland favourites, you know 100 per cent that they’re in for a major battle against Kilkenny in the semi-final – at the very minimum.
The second quarter-final was always going to be a difficult match for Tipperary. They were always expected to win and there had been a lot of love for Laois after their heroics the previous week.
More worrying from a Tipp perspective is the ever more pronounced lack of pattern to their play. They got the early couple of goals and looked like they should kick on from there but their problems were almost exacerbated in the second half after Laois lost a man.
At this stage there’s a conflict of styles on the Tipperary side, really. They haven’t embraced the demands of the short game, playing through the lines, as other teams – even Kilkenny to a certain extent – have because they should have been able to work the ball through from the puck-out.
They had a couple of spare men in defence and should have been able to build it from there but that wasn’t happening. That’s a key worry.
The second concern I’d have is the concession of frees, which was the Achilles heel of an otherwise strong display in Cork back in May. You could say that the referee was much too fussy and there’s no doubt about that but at the same time, Tipperary are simply conceding too many frees. That’s been a trend, regardless of the refereeing.
I didn’t expect them to respond well to the defeat in Limerick because the lost momentum was always going to be a problem but I thought that there would be some signs of recovery. Instead many of the same players who under-performed in Limerick, didn’t find anything better against Laois.
It’s worth remarking on how hard Laois fought after three incredibly intense weeks. Ross King took his goal very well and Mark Kavanagh punished the Tipp indiscipline.
After a brilliant season under Eddie Brennan, the lap of honour was richly deserved.

Laois / Re: 2019 All-Ireland Senior Hurling Championship
« on: July 15, 2019, 11:00:31 AM »
Nicky English . This is some praise coming from him

"It’s worth remarking on how hard Laois fought after three incredibly intense weeks. Ross King took his goal very well and Mark Kavanagh punished the Tipp indiscipline.
After a brilliant season under Eddie Brennan, the lap of honour was richly deserved."

GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Mayo - Super 8s Round 1
« on: July 15, 2019, 10:04:09 AM »
This was about the Galway hurlers but the same analysis would apply to Mayo
who have been on the go since 2011

1. Galway now hurl mostly in bursts.

2 A side with serious mileage, with more or less the same set of players doing the legwork,
lapses into this contour.

3. Their leading figures are at least five years into a cycle that began in 2015 ― eight years since 2012, in some cases.

3 The fact that X could return from a period travelling and slot straight back into the championship team speaks for itself. So does the continued prominence of Y and Z

4. If Galway don't get that
consistency of performance across the 70 minute s then they're going to run out of lives soon. 

5. Galway effectively ground to a halt through unexpected replays which took an increasing toll on them

GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Mayo - Super 8s Round 1
« on: July 14, 2019, 05:34:25 PM »
The end of something for Mayo

GAA Discussion / Re: Kerry v Mayo - Super 8s Round 1
« on: July 14, 2019, 04:50:15 PM »
Very impressive from Kerry

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