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Messages - Hound

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31
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:29:24 PM »
Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

32
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:16:46 PM »
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.



It is a very interesting response.

The Green and Labour responses are exactly as you'd expect.

The FF and FG responses are pretty much what you'd expect.

But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

33
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 11:24:55 AM »
Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó’Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)

A lot of those independents would change their left/right leanings if there was something on the table
For sure!

"We're goina need a bigger table!"

I'd say the list of demands from the 21 would make for interesting reading  :D

34
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 09:29:17 AM »
Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó’Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)


35
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:19:20 AM »
Quite a few are ex members of a bigger party that fell out for one reason or another but had done work in their area so people stayed with them. There are very few "single issue" independents today like there were before.
That seems bang on itchy.

The Verona Murphy example is a gas one. I heard her a good few times talking about Brexit on Eamon Dunphy's podcast, and she seemed competent, intelligent, etc.

So she joins FG and wants to be a TD. Then she said what she said, did badly in the by-election and got kicked out by FG. (Dunphy interestingly seems to have dumped her too).

So she runs as an Independent. Gets elected. And in her celebratory interview afterwards, she claims she got voted in because "the people wanted change"!
 
I don't know whether it was FGers who voted for her despite her being kicked out, or (more likely) it was part of the anyone but FF / FG brigade, but either way you'd have to question their choice, and possibly their sanity  ;)

36
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:06:31 AM »
19 Independents elected so far.  Is that not a bit of a cop out, for the most part just electing someone who’ll get you a wee motorway or a new school in your backyard.  Democratic it solves little or nothing for the country.

I completely agree. Fine voting for an Independent in a local election where they can do something or an EU election where they can do as little as anyone else. But IMO it's a shitehawk decision to vote for someone who thinks their way is the only way and there's not single grouping or party out there they're prepared to join with.

Anyone see a list of the 19 independents anywhere with their affiliation or previous affiliation?
SF need all the smaller parties and 12 independents to get 80 seats. Give Ceann Comhairle to FG or FF and they've a majority. Not sure if there's any chance of that but would be interesting to see the list. It's some opportunity, but you'd have to doubt whether they can make it happen.

If Mary Lou can't make that happen then it'll have to be a FF-SF-Green coalition. Or another election!

37
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 07:57:33 AM »
The government's position on the €13 billion is somewhat irrelevant.

It's gone to appeal either way. Apple's team are leading their defence. If the government change sides it won't make one iota of a difference to the ultimate outcome of the case. They're pretending they are hoping Apple wins, while in reality I would say they wouldn't mind if they lose! But it does have to be remembered that Apple provide a huge benefit to the economy, particularly in Cork, so there's no point damning them in public, let the court system play out. The EU will not give Apple any easy win.

Again, the reporting on this case hasn't allowed for people to understand it.
Apple's tax ruling they received in 1980 wasn't actually disputed by the EU. The ruling said that 90% of the profits of their Bermudan resident company belonged to Bermuda and 10% belonged to the Bermudan's Irish branch. (Can't remember the exact %, but it was something like that).

The problem for Apple is it seems they didn't do what they said they'd do in the manner they said they would. And the problem for the government is that Revenue didn't audit Apple to ensure they were doing what they said they were doing. Revenue in the 80s was very poorly run, but made slow and steady progress since around the mid 90s and now it's the best run government agency.

The Commission's report that 0% of the profits belonged to Bermuda and 100% to Ireland was very persuading (I was full sure beforehand that Apple would win, other than the % split might change to maybe 80/20 or even 70/30, but certainly not 0/100! - but I hadn't realised the mistakes Apple made) but Apple disagree and the Commission's report is by its nature a bit one-sided. So it will be interesting to see how it goes - but there's nothing to be gained by the government publicly switching sides.

And of course it we do win, many countries in the EU and also the US will demand a big chunk. The EU countries have actually very little basis for claiming anything - they've already got their share and audited Apple for the relevant years. But they are generally extremely aggressive so technical right/wrong won't matter to them. The US would have a claim for the majority of it, but they won't want to hang Apple out to dry any further and would likely do something behind the scenes.

38
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 10, 2020, 07:54:23 PM »
McGrath of FF on the News saying they'll let Marylou get on with talking to left wingers to try and set up a left wing Government.
Yep, even if they end up with the most seats, FF have decided to let SF make the first attempt at forming a government with everyone bar FF FG

39
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 10, 2020, 12:50:44 PM »

Doherty is probably more capable than anyone on the FF benches

Not exactly a high bar right now though.
Well, there'll be some fresh faced FF'ers in this time, so we'll see what they're made of. But can't disagree that Doherty would seem more than capable.

It could be a huge benefit in normalising the party if they got Doherty into the finance portfolio, did a decent job and didn't go all commy/marxist like SF threatened to do in the past.

40
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 10, 2020, 11:18:49 AM »
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.
The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

41
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 - 2020
« on: February 09, 2020, 08:14:16 AM »
As someone that was shouting for Monghan throughout the game, I thought the ref was more than fair to them tbh. A number of easy frees given in the second half. The lack of play on to McManus looked bad because he was clear through but the whistle was blown for a contact foul long before that and Dubs stopped playing. Someone will have to do the clock on the injury time, went way over but a hell of a lot of the original 6 was wasted also so hard to know. I'm sure league Sunday will do it
As BennyCake said earlier, the ref got the stoppage time in stoppage time correct. 

There were two lengthy stoppages. The first was exactly 2 minutes. The second was for 90 seconds. So whatever you want to say about the ref, the 3.30 played in excess of the stated stoppage time, he got that spot on.

42
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 08, 2020, 01:37:39 AM »
Assuming FF lead the next govt, who will replace Coveney at Foreign Affairs?

Coveney has done a good job imo and will be a loss

Coveney will undoubtedly be a loss, himself and Varadkar in fairness are two very capable politicians. His problem was the likes of Flanagan, Murphy & Harris and it was no coincidence that they were largely hidden away during the campaign. I can't think of too many great minds in FF that will make up a formidable front bench and I think it will need new politicians to emerge from the shadows. Micheal Martin has been at the front and centre of most of their campaign, a lot of their shadow ministers have not been very visible either.

Agreed on Flanagan and Murphy but I think Harris is okay, the health dept is the most difficult job going and the sláintecare plan at least seems to have cross party support which is the right idea (whether it's the right plan or not remains to be seen)
Yep, but the leading lights in FG have to shoulder the blame for running such a poor campaign. The economic success they’ve had has almost been ignored. The fact that anyone who wants a job has a job, is taken for granted. And that health and housing is just hard to solve. Look around the world. 

Then the shinners have taken huge leafs out of the Trump and Brexit campaigns. Truth irrelevant. Peddle populist ideas and there’s a big cohort of the population just lap it up.

The poor oul Greens I feel sorry for. To vote for them you not only need to have the environment front and centre, but you need to be intelligent. Intelligent enough to realize there’ll be some small cost. Unlike the shinners, they count on sense rather than pure populism. Hopefully the polls underestimate how well they’ll do.

43
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 06, 2020, 08:29:10 AM »
Labour and Fine Gael are of the same ilk? Aye.  ::)

Aside from their record in government, consider that Labour refuse to consider the idea of coalition with SF if the opportunity arose to form a left wing government, but they couldn't get into bed with FG quickly enough. Same ilk.

have Labour refused to consider a coalition with SF?
Not sure if it's as far as an outright refusal, but it's close enough. Howlin said he'd be personally against it.  Links are still too strong to terrorism, punishment beatings and stances like their one on the Special Criminal Court show they have not moved on from their PIRA days, and someone other than Mary Lou is calling the shots.

44
General discussion / Re: The IRISH RUGBY thread
« on: February 06, 2020, 08:13:19 AM »
Money and ranking points are also very important in terms of why Farrell is not really able to experiment and needs to try and win every game. Although the selection is way too conservative for my liking.

Every nation gets around £15M for competing in the 6N, with the following top-up depending on finishing position:

1st: £6m (£5m)
2nd. £3.5m (£3.7m)
3rd. £2.5m (£2.7m)
4th. £2m (£2.2m)
5th. £1.5m (£1.7m)
6th. £1.2m (£1m)
- figures in brackets is the prizemoney if there's no grand slam.

So a £1.5m difference between 2nd and 4th. IRFU will be keen to pocket that.

The World Cup draw takes place in November this year. So that makes this 6N and this year's Autumn Internationals very important in determining the seedings for the draw. No idea why they make the draw so ridiculously early!

45
GAA Discussion / Re: Joe Brolly
« on: February 05, 2020, 01:06:46 PM »

Devious and deliberately so, or just ignorant?


Is that directed at me??

I did a random google, I'm sure most are very similar.
I went to the site:
https://www.yourdictionary.com/pansy

Copied the definition without changing it. It credited "Webster's New World College Dictionary, Fifth Edition "

So you're defending the use of the word by O'Rourke? Well done.

But I note most of the normal posters are leaving this topic alone rather than fighting it out , so I'll follow suit.

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