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Messages - Hound

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1
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 09, 2020, 03:19:19 PM »
I see Trump has gone the "it's not as bad as flu" route with his latest tweet

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

2
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 09, 2020, 03:08:56 PM »
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

That is completely incorrect as it assumes that everyone currently affected by the virus that has not yet died, won't die.


nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) is not right either - as there is a time period between "point-nearest-death" and discharged as recovered that the recovering patient won't contribute to nRecovered, but dying patients will add onto nDead.

All the % figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. There's an unquantifiable amount of people who have contracted the virus and have only had minor symptoms so they've never been diagnosed.

My relative in a UK hospital said they've had a planning meeting re how they'll operate when 1/3rd of staff are unavailable.
They really don't want school closures as that will mean a lot of staff having to stay home and mind kids.
He said that it's in poo, so again more on the handwashing being so important.
Reckons too that there have been cases in western European universities where people working on a cure have inadvertently being infected by the samples they are working on. Wouldn't say where!

Hound the main method of transmission is most definitely not via poo.
I never said it was the main method! Everyone already knows the main method is via coughing and sneezing.

3
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 09, 2020, 01:54:17 PM »
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

That is completely incorrect as it assumes that everyone currently affected by the virus that has not yet died, won't die.


nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) is not right either - as there is a time period between "point-nearest-death" and discharged as recovered that the recovering patient won't contribute to nRecovered, but dying patients will add onto nDead.

All the % figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. There's an unquantifiable amount of people who have contracted the virus and have only had minor symptoms so they've never been diagnosed.

My relative in a UK hospital said they've had a planning meeting re how they'll operate when 1/3rd of staff are unavailable.
They really don't want school closures as that will mean a lot of staff having to stay home and mind kids.
He said that it's in poo, so again more on the handwashing being so important.
Reckons too that there have been cases in western European universities where people working on a cure have inadvertently being infected by the samples they are working on. Wouldn't say where!



4
GAA Discussion / Re: U20 All Ireland football championship 2020
« on: March 07, 2020, 08:10:22 AM »
The old 1.3 million population probably nothing to do with it.
The few bits I saw of the game they seemed well on top.
Hope we can surprise Galway tomorrow but sadly unlikely.

We should always be competitive with our population. These lads pretty much all have two seasons under their belt playing adult club football in Dublin, which is a super training ground for them. The strategy at minor level to pick the most naturally skillful and help them get bigger and stronger doesn’t often reap rewards at minor level but starts to bear fruit at U20. I think some counties pick the naturally big and strong lads at minor and try to make them more skillful.

A pity for the game that Laois saved their worst performance for the final. Not much went right for them after the opening quarter.

Dubs aren’t at the class of Kerry in my view, but I’d expect the semi against the Ulster champions to tight.

5
General discussion / Re: Flybe
« on: March 05, 2020, 09:28:31 PM »
Remembered this evening that it was Revolut I used to pay for my flybe flights. So I've completed their online chargeback request. Now to await their response!

6
General discussion / Re: GAA Geansaí “Threatening” To Unionists
« on: March 05, 2020, 03:48:15 PM »
I just got round to listening to Lowry on Talkback and I think there needs to be a distinction between a GAA top and an O'Neill's top.

Those proclamation tops that O'Neill's make have nothing to do with the GAA, just like the tractor ones, ploughing championship ones and all that other písh.

Do you have a link for this Johnny ?

No directly answering your question AC, but Eamon Dunphy had a good podcast interview with Lowry recently:

https://www.thestandwitheamondunphy.com/

Episode 652.

You have to get used to Dunphy's style which is to lick up to all his interviewees and agree with most of what they say, as his method of getting them to open up more.

In a following interview with Eamon McCann (Episode 655), Dunphy referenced Lowry being a bit too right wing for his liking  ;D

7
General discussion / Re: Flybe
« on: March 05, 2020, 03:30:39 PM »
Has anyone had any luck doing this?

Quote

passengers who had bought a ticket using a credit or debit card may be able to get their money back.

They should contact their card provider and seek a chargeback to their account, if it is possible at this point.

On my list for things to do tomorrow!

8
General discussion / Re: Sinn Fein? They have gone away, you know.
« on: March 05, 2020, 01:25:55 PM »
Some good information on Sinn Fein in the Irish Times today, a lot of it supplied from SF's director of finance Des Mackin.

Nothing new here for our Ulster brethern I'm sure, but plenty for us in the 26. Hopefully it's a sign of bringing more transparency into Irish politics:

Long-term director of finance, Des Mackin said Sinn Féin does not want its elected representatives controlling the party.

“We don’t want a parliamentary party running the organisation,” the senior party officer said. “We want to stay a party of activists. It’s a totally different model.

Three former Sinn Féin elected representatives also told The Irish Times that Sinn Féin was a tightly controlled organisation where unelected officials sought to tell elected representatives what to do. There’s nothing mysterious about it.”

“There are no paper walls hiding people,” he said. “It’s not a case of IRA figures in a smoky room in Belfast. They are on the ardchomhairle.”

The party’s standing committee, the Coiste Seasta, is a key body in the running of the party. There are currently eight people on the committee, only one of whom is an elected representative. Five of the eight are from Belfast.

Sinn Féin’s ultimate ruling body is its ardchomhairle, but it is a large body, sometimes with more than 50 members, and meets approximately 10 times a year. The smaller Coiste Seasta, which meets every fortnight, has the power of the ardchomhairle when the latter is not sitting, and runs the party on a day-to-day basis.

All the party’s national departments report to the ardchomhairle through the Coiste Seasta, according to the Sinn Féin constitution. The committee approves all payments out of party funds that are above €250.
The current membership of the Coiste Seasta is: Sinn Féin’s national chairman Declan Kearney, MLA; party general-secretary Dawn Doyle; director of elections and senior strategist Brian Tumilty; director of finance Des Mackin; Belfast party activist Conor Keenan; head of the “six-county” directorate and party chair in Belfast Sam Baker; head of the “26-county” directorate Ken O’Connell; and director of organisation Martin Lynch. Three of the members of the committee have IRA convictions.

With other major parties in the Republic, the parliamentary party meeting, where a party’s elected representatives meet in private to thrash out party positions, is a key structure. Not so with Sinn Féin, according to the former Sinn Féin TD.

“It basically wasn’t a parliamentary party meeting at all, because a TD with 10,000 votes would have the same say as a political assistant that walked in off the street the day before. The meetings were more akin to focus groups, in which the temperature of the room was taken, but decisions weren’t taken. It was a big failing. There was a sense of disempowerment among the TDs in their ability to effect decisions.”

Similar observations about how the party operates were made by two former Sinn Féin councillors who spoke with The Irish Times. The former Sinn Féin politicians said this process of headquarters seeking to exert control over elected representatives was overseen by the Coiste Seasta.

Paid party organisers “come in, to council meetings, and tell councillors what to do and what to say”, said one.

“You were directed all the time,” said the other. “No matter how trivial the matter [–] would tell you what way to vote. I found that very difficult. I was never a nodding dog for anyone.”

Sinn Féin is the richest political party on the island of Ireland, with approximately 200 staff and, according to its director of finance, Des Mackin, an extensive property network across the island. The exact number of people employed by the party and its elected representatives is not clear, but is probably in excess of 200, he said.

The size of Sinn Féin’s property portfolio has never been revealed, but according to the senior party officer, it far exceeds anything owned by its political rivals.
Sinn Féin owns up to 50 properties in constituencies around the island, over and above the four properties in Dublin and Belfast owned directly by party headquarters, Mackin said.

According to Mackin, the merchandising business operated by Sinn Féin, which sells items that celebrate the IRA and the republican struggle, is producing a profit for the first time in ages. During the general election campaign, the party’s “Come Out Ye Black and Tans” T-shirts (€19.99 each) were “flying”, he said.


9
The "we never needed a bailout" rhetoric you hear from unionists when comparing the two economies is hard to listen to given the realities of the NI economy.

10
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 04, 2020, 01:31:52 PM »
Seems to be a few cases around the "City of London" which could add to the economic consequences if that ramps up

11
General discussion / Re: The Super(ish) Leeds United Thread
« on: March 03, 2020, 08:19:01 PM »
Do Leeds fans under the age of 50 exist in Ireland?
I met a teenage Leeds fan from Kildare when we were away during the Halloween mid term break! Forced into it by his father of course 😃

12
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:36:07 PM »
So with all the Shinners on here, there's still not one that can give some information on Mary Lou's bosses Ted Howell, Martin Lynch and Padraig Wilson?

Your are the kings of whatabouterry though!

Well you seem to be the one in the know about how these 3 people are controlling SF so why don't you produce the evidence?

I'm certainly not in the know about Sinn Fein! But did you read the evidence from the Cash for Ash enquiry?

A great example of the DUP and SF working together actually. Both enjoy ripping off the UK exchequer!

The scandal was completely DUP led, but SF helped keep it going for a bit longer than they should have. It was clear from the evidence provided that Sinn Fein needed permission from the three amigos before making any decisions. SF say they are one All Ireland party (to be commended), so it's hardly likely the 3 lads only look after the northern end.

13
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:25:49 PM »
Quote
Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.


Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

I've a cousin working in one of the UK hospitals that has some of the 13 UK patients.

He reckons the total cases number and also the total recovered number are misleading. The vast majority of people who get this only have a mild illness, so most of them don't get picked up. He reckons the Italy number is closer to 5,000 cases and then obviously the vast majority of them either recovering or recovered.

Sometime between mid and end of March he's very confident it will be downgraded in severity. Of course there is a risk he could be wrong, but so far he says he's not worried.

14
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 27, 2020, 08:25:04 AM »
So with all the Shinners on here, there's still not one that can give some information on Mary Lou's bosses Ted Howell, Martin Lynch and Padraig Wilson?

Your are the kings of whatabouterry though!

15
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 24, 2020, 04:09:48 PM »

I don't have an issue with SF party members consulting external members aligned with the party on matters, I don't see the issue there.

I do have a massive problem with parties disgraced with decades of bribery and corruption like both FG and FF are, these are the same parties pedaling the former as an issue for concern.

I think you have your gun cocked in the wrong direction if you are actually concerned about democracy and who is leading in the future? The ties between Denis O'Brien and FG are still very close.

What's your issue with Ted Howell?
your whattaboutery and refusal to answer the question is getting very boring. Don't reply to me and leave it to someone else if you can't answer the question. Maybe you just don't know. That's fine, but please go off on your tangents on some other thread rather than in response to me! 

I don't know that I have any issue with Ted Howell. The Dunphy podcast was the first I heard of him. I want to learn more about the future co-leader of our country so I can decide for myself. The issue doesn't seem a surprise to the Shinners on here so I'm sure someone can have a go.

It's balance and context, you're just a bit too dim to be able to square off your contradictions.

What we can see here is that you are absolutely steadfast in your reluctance to look at the two establishment parties down South and the decades of corruption that they have engaged in.

I haven't avoided any question. I have stated I don't have an issue with SF consulting people like Ted Howell (that's a reiteration) -  you do, which is confusing given your reluctance to address decades of corruption in both FF and FG and how the people who the strings for those parties, who historically have been wealthy businessmen with brown envelopers, offshore accounts and other gifts.

It's a huge contradiction, I can't help that you aren't able to explain your rationale behind that contradiction but feel free to try again.
Jeezus, you're a boring fooker.
You've bored everyone to death on the NFL1 thread by replying 57 times that your lad should not have got a red. Just because 57 people disagree with you doesn't mean you have to reply every time to repeat the same shite. Everyone knows your view. Leave it alone.
Likewise, here I know you think that FF and FG have had decades of corruption. I don't disagree but I could not care less what you think about TDs who were corrupt from any party.
If they're sent to jail then I will cheer from the rooftops.

I am interested in learning more about our future co-leaders Ted Howell, Martin Lynch and Padraig Wilson. Is Ted more important than the other two? You seem to be focusing on him (I hope he's not on to you). But you probably know nothing about them, so if that's the case leave it to someone else please, or go back to boring everyone to death on the Div 1 thread.

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