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Messages - seafoid

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1
General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: May 29, 2020, 03:21:05 PM »

   https://www.ft.com/content/b2253265-ff74-402b-8454-30e96d66d67b

   Yet there are unmistakable signs that older voters are turned off by Mr Trump’s pandemic record. In late February, Mr Trump had a double-digit lead over Mr Biden among voters aged over 65. Average recent polls showed Mr Biden 10 points ahead.

By psephological standards, this is a tectonic shift. It explains why Florida, where many retirees live and Mr Trump’s primary residence, shows Mr Biden with an average four-point lead. Ditto for Arizona. Mr Biden has clear leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania and a slim one in Wisconsin — the three states that tipped the balance in 2016. Even deeply Republican Georgia and Texas show Mr Biden within striking distance. Were such numbers to hold in November, Mr Trump would lose by a landslide.

2
General discussion / Re: Death Notices
« on: May 29, 2020, 02:29:12 PM »
Legendary entertainer Brendan Bowyer. Your parents' generation would remember him.
the last of the showbanders

4
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: May 28, 2020, 07:01:15 AM »
Very interesting article


https://www.ft.com/content/121c2f30-9f69-11ea-ba68-3d5500196c30

A more informative factor than R is the “dispersion parameter”, known as k, which captures how evenly a disease spreads. The higher k is, the more uniform the transmission. The lower k is, the more clustering there is

“The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero,” professor Jamie Lloyd-Smith, from the University of California, Los Angeles, told the journal Science. “Most people do not transmit.”

Knowing that Covid-19 cases spread unevenly is a mixed blessing for the many countries, including the UK, which are still finalising their track and trace systems. 

They can focus on catching the relatively few events that spread the pandemic coronavirus explosively.
But it also means surveillance systems need to be comprehensive, quick and watertight

"If the pathogen is to be contained, then the analysis of its spread needs to be more granular than simply measuring R, the reproduction number. R is the average number of people a carrier passes the disease to, but is just that: an average."

Good news for lockdown possibly but bad news for matches


5
Global power is currently in a state of flux

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Like him or loathe him, in the United States version of a democracy he was elected by people primarily from States, that were marginalised by the previous Democrat administration. Having being to states like South Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska & Tennessee/ Alabama before and after Trumps inauguration,got to say these states are doing much better. At the end of day people care about jobs and prospects for their kids, chit talk on social media platforms dont mean chit.

Do you think that said states started doing better in 2018 off the election of Trump in 2016?



I do, I'm talking about middle America doing better, places like New Richmond Wi, Huntsville Al etc. Wisconsin unemployment fell from 9.8 to 3.4%. Industry is booming, consequently peoples expectations are better. Don't get me wrong he's a horror show of a man, but his adminstration makes more of an interest in looking after middle America than let say Hilary would.
US unemployment is shockingly high again

7
It would have huge implications for Brexit. In 2016 the headbangers planned to trade with both China and the US.
Power is ugly  . Just look at Irish history.

8
Australia

https://www.ft.com/content/73c4f0b6-d5c7-47c8-b91c-8e84343dfd85

Chinese companies are increasingly questioning whether or not they are welcome here,” says Warwick Smith, a former executive director of Macquarie Bank and politician. He warns that Canberra is coming under “more and more pressure” from Washington to choose the US over China and business is concerned that government’s actions are causing unnecessary damage to relations with Beijing.

But Beijing has suspended imports of beef from some Australian meat processors and last week slapped tariffs of up to 80 per cent on its barley imports. Far from rescuing Canberra from its difficulties, there is growing concern that Beijing may look to exploit the country’s vulnerability by targeting other important trade sectors. “If we’re going to go into the biggest debt we’ve had in our life and then simultaneously poke our biggest provider of income in the eye, it’s not necessarily the smartest thing you can do,” says Mr Stokes. “If Beijing's anger is not quelled it could have catastrophic consequences for the economy.”

Europe

https://www.ft.com/content/7d500105-4349-4721-b4f5-179de6a58f08

Although driven chiefly by a sense of great power rivalry with the US, much of the fallout during the coronavirus crisis has been in Europe. “They have started talking to us in a tone that they would have only used towards countries they considered small or weak,” said a German diplomat. Mareike Ohlberg, a scholar at the German Marshall Fund who specialises in Chinese influence campaigns in Europe, said: “In the past, towards us, they had stressed the long-term, the positive, the constructive. It is the first time that we are seeing destructive messaging on a large scale towards Europe

GOP

https://www.mcsally.senate.gov/news/videos/watch/mcsally-were-entering-a-new-cold-war-with-china



9
Townlands of my grandparents.

Derryneskin (Doire Naoscán - Oakwood of the snipes)
Derrinraw (Doire an Rátha - Oakwood of the Rath)
Dernasell West (Doire na Saille Thair - Oakwood of the salted meat)
Cushenny (Cúil Sionnaigh - Corner of the fox)

Fantastic.

Mines would be 

Edenballymore x2( Eadán An Bhealaigh Mhór- Brow Of the Main Road. Bogside is in this townland and it is not Eadán An Bhaile Mhór as most people claim)
Coshquin(Cois Caoine-Next to the pleasent water)
Creggan(An Cregáin- Stony Place).

All Derry City townlands. Creggan which I mention above isnt actually where the present estate is, it is where Glenowen is today. The creggan estate is made up of Glassagh , Ballymagowan and Edenballymore.

Derry city on the westbank  was part of Inishowen long before modern borders.



+1 to the fantastic comment.

Mine would be:
Farrandeelin (Fearann Díleann - townland of the floods)
Knockmore (Cnoc Mór - big hill)
Lisaniska (Lios an Uisce - fort of the water)
Rinmore (Rinn Mór - the big promontory)

PS, why did towns change* their Irish names?
Nás na Ríogh has a nicer ring to it than An Nás, likewise Gort Inse Ghluaire instead of An Gort.
The Guaire in Gort Inse Guaire is also remembered in Dún Guaire in Cinn Mhara/Kinvara

10
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: May 24, 2020, 06:35:36 AM »

Ferguson presumably didn't follow his own advice when he was ######## his bit on the side despite predicting up to 500000 deaths if we all don't self isolate.
He broke his own advice. But how does that invalidate his work, may I ask?
Either he couldn't keep away and was prepared to die in order to see his mistress given his 500000 death number or he didn't think the risk was as great as he was leading the public to believe.
You haven't explained how him breaking lockdown to visit his lover invalidates his work.

It showed a human fallibility and a selfishness on his part.

But that has no effect on the validity of his work.

It would appear you're not familiar with what conclusions his work came to.
His model is just that, a model and like all models it is based on assumptions. Paddy Power probably could build a model to predict the winner of the 2023 AI but it will make lots if assumptions and lots of best guesses. Based on the different approaches of different countries the 500k prediction seems way off to me.

His personal conduct is relevant in this case as it directly contradicts his advice.

Ferguson warned of the possible calamity that could unfold were no lockdown measures taken. Given that the UK has the highest death toll in Europe even with lockdown measures, his warning was prescient, even if it was only what any reasonable person could see.

An individual instance of selfish behaviour on his part is in no way relevant to the validity of his work.

It's an individual instance of selfish behaviour. And he paid the price for it.

Will Cummings pay the price for his multiple instances of selfish and dangerous behaviour?

He will in me hoop.
It depends on how the story develops and how the public reacts.

In a Yougov poll yesterday 52% said he should resign, 28% said he shouldn't and 20% didn't  know.

11
I see Mory Kante died yesterday. A famous African musician in his own right but I'll forever associate him with one of the all time great dance tunes - Yeke Yeke - Hardfloor remix
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YDZ9HYCAknc

It was on the soundtrack to the film "the Beach" aswell.
Great song.

RIP


12
Cluain Tuaisceart is in the hinterland of Ballinasloe. It is called Clontuskert in English but most people pronounce the Tuaisceart.

13
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: May 21, 2020, 06:27:43 PM »
Yanks expect round 2 in November.

It will be like this until there is a vaccine.

14
General discussion / Re: Various bits re Brexit and Economics
« on: May 21, 2020, 11:23:40 AM »
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/21/british-cats-dogs-ferrets-will-need-eu-pet-passport-travel-northern/

British cats, dogs and ferrets will need an EU pet passport to travel to Northern Ireland after Brexit
The internal “pet border” in the UK from Jan 1 next year is a result of the Withdrawal Agreement

The creation of an internal “pet border” in the United Kingdom from Jan 1 next year is a result of the Withdrawal Agreement Boris Johnson negotiated with Brussels.

That deal effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs territory and moves the border between it and the Republic to the Irish Sea to prevent the need for inflammatory checks on the border after Brexit.

The EU’s Pet Travel Scheme allows for the free movement of cats, dogs and ferrets in the bloc without the need for quarantine.  A quarter of a million British pets use their passports to travel in the EU every year, according to the European Commission.

Joe Moran is deputy coordinator of the UK-EU Animal Welfare Taskforce and works for the Eurogroup for Animals, an umbrella organisation for 70 animal welfare charities.

“You can't refer to the UK at all in this case as a single unit any more,” he said. “Pet passports will be needed between Great Britain and Northern Ireland."

15
Prosperous

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