I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.
Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.
The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.
A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.
In practical terms, can you outline for me why a 51-49 result would result in bloodshed/carnage and a 55-45 result wouldn't?
At what point in between do unionists change from being hell bent on carnage to deciding they'll just have to accept it?
I can't tell you for certain that a 55-45 result wouldn't result in bloodshed, no more than I can tell you with 100% certainty that 50% +1 would result in bloodshed.
I can't see into the future.
What I can say is that based on a reading of history and an understanding of the siege mentality of Unionists/Loyalists, the holding of a referendum on Irish unification, in a scenario where it would be clear from opinion polling that there would be a wafer thin margin either way, is likely a recipe for serious unrest and could well result in a re-outbreak of violence and killing, and it could be extremely vicious.
For me the Brexit referendum is also a good demonstration of why the holding of a referendum where the result is likely to be very close, is a bad idea. Britain leaving the EU is an emotive issue for sure, but it pales in comparison to the visceral nationalistic emotions that would be stirred on both sides by a referendum on Irish unification.
Therefore, I feel it would be extremely unwise to hold such a referendum unless there was evidence to demonstrate that the pro-unification position had a clear and consistent lead.
The 55-45 margin is my personal call on where the line of that margin lies.
In any such future referendum, it would be better to have a clear result. 55-45 is a clearer result than 51-49. Again, I can't say with certainty whether a clear result would eliminate the prospect of violence - but it would likely lessen it.
The Good Friday Agreement was clearly a very positive development in terms of securing peace. But the principle of consent, while laudable as a principle, has stored up what is effectively a timebomb given that the long term demographic appears to be slowly but inexorably moving towards a Catholic/Nationalist/Republican majority.
How the switching of the majority to the minority and vice versa is handled vis a vis a referendum will be of huge importance in terms of staving off a potential return to violence.
It must be handled with the utmost care and the utmost respect, because the potential is there for disaster.
People shouting for a referendum now flies in the face of that.
As does Brexit.
The lessons of the past are already being unlearned.
Agree with bold. Though, as some earlier posters mentioned, I think it does no harm to mention it from time to time, to 'normalise' it.
As for the figure, I don't think it will make a blind bit of difference what the majority is (certainly within the limits we are discussing).
So I think we have to accept that 51-49 or 55-45 (or 60-40 for that matter), there will still be a cabal of uber-staunch reprobates who will cause bother when it doesn't go their way.
We can't be beholden to them though.
EDIT.
Just re-read your post there and realised that the only half attempt at an answer to my questions could be boiled down to 'cos I think so'.
The rest is nothing more than a bunch of very noble platitudes and regurgitations of old chestnuts about respect etc...
There's every reason to think the way I do.
The only reason you wouldn't is if you buy into the old misty-eyed romantic nationalist bullshit, ie. a united Ireland any which way and to hell with the consequences.
If opinion polls put the numbers in favour/not in favour of unification at basically 50-50, and the result was on a knife edge, the division and hatred that would be stoked up by a referendum would be nightmarish. There would likely be violence before, during and after the poll.
It would be utterly irresponsible to hold a poll which would be a carte blanche for the headbangers to cause violent mayhem.
If you had a period of, say, two years where opinion polls were consistently showing 55-45 or more in favour of unification, a border poll would become inevitable because of the clear and consistent majority in favour, the result wouldd become inevitable, and the Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist community would at least have time to come to terms with what was happening.
Time, acceptance and respect are the keys to unification ever happening.
There may well be some Loyalists who would still be intent on violence with a 55-45 result for unification, or 60-40, or an even greater margin. It could be that no margin, no matter how big, would make certian people accept that being taken out of the United Kingdom in a referendum was legitimate. But the greater the margin, the less would be the legitimacy of any violence in the eyes of the Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist community as a whole. I think that's unarguable.
I'd like to see unification but I'd be more than prepared to wait an extra 30 or 40 years for it to happen if it meant there was a better chance that people wouldn't be killed.
Here's another thing. When people voted for Brexit they didn't know what they were voting for. Those who would vote for a united Ireland might think they would know what they would be voting for. But would they?
Because there would be those who would expect all the trappings and official culture of the 26 county state to be immediately extended to the six counties - the tricolour to fly over City Hall in Belfast etc., that unionist culture be basically be obliterated. That we'd "stick it to them once and for all".
Then, there would be those, like myself, who would be prepared to see a united Ireland as being effectively the creation of new state rather than it merely being a case of the six counties being subsumed into the Republic. A new state with a new flag and a new anthem etc., with Britain having some say over the six counties in a similar way to how the Republic has some say over the North now.
There would be hard united Irelanders and soft united Irelanders. The hard united Irelanders mightn't particularly like the ideas of the soft united Irelanders, never mind the ideas of those who opposed a united Ireland. The united Ireland that occurred in practice would likely not be the united Ireland they imagined.
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