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Messages - heganboy

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General discussion / Re: American Sports Thread
« on: Today at 03:53:07 AM »
Thunder just quit in q3. From 13 up to 11 down. Game over. Under pressure instead of fighting back they fought themselves and the refs. Not pretty. Warriors are ridiculous from downtown.

Im reasonably sure Rory is just sporting royalty

Economics cannot really explain why rapid growth in living standards coincided with so much political upheaval, just as it cannot explain why long periods of stagnation, as Japan has endured since the 1990s, are met with relative equanimity. Economics canít explain why Britons may leave the European Union when the preponderance of evidence is that membership has made them richer. It canít explain why Republican voters backed insider Mitt Romney in 2012 when unemployment was 8% and an outsider, Mr. Trump, this year when unemployment is 5%. Why have Republicans warmed to Mr. Trumpís hard line against illegal immigration when the number of illegal immigrants has been dropping since 2007? Why have Democrats cheered Mr. Sandersí promise of government-run universal health care when the number of uninsured is at an all-time low?

So this is a missive from "an economist" Greg Ip at the journal.

I'm going to recommend that you read from the authors perspective and replace the word economics with "I" you might be closer to the truth. Economics explains all of it...

General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: May 26, 2016, 06:02:05 PM »
visitors can't see pics , please register or login

Have you been to a game in the last ten years? I have!

I don't give a shite who you support, I am supporting them because the supporters clubs have been working very hard to rid themselves of the loyalist scum that pervaded their support base, I also want to support the nationalist players that stand there and take the Brit national anthem prior to playing, that is to be admired in my opinion.

Stew- I stand with you man
(you probably don't want me to - I know)

See the lyrics from RATM killing in the name of - for the thought police. Stew can support who he wants, and you may disagree with his views (as I do regularly on political and economic issues) but have a discussion, disagree, point out what you think, counter claim, agree to disagree, he may be right, you may be right on factual matters but who you support is completely up to you, like who you fall in love with and what turns you on. Leave it the hell alone, I'm pretty sure we all know the background to the historical situation on the island, and the diverse opinions on that subject but who the team you support- get out.

f**k you I won't do what you tell me.

in his own words
I was referring to myself and not once did I reference your choice or any other persons choice.

its complicated enough growing up in Armagh without being told what to think. Huge efforts on behalf of the IFA and a big well done to Oonagh O'Reilly on her efforts - times they are a changing as yet another smart person once sang

quick read here if you fancy edu-mc-cating yourselves.

p.s. I am spectacularly aware of my own hypocrisy - I actually embrace it at this point

there are a few serious concerns about that visualization you have there. Starting with derivatives- couldn't be wronger and working backwards- bitcoin and silver I'd agree with, as well as narrow money. Using market cap for companies is worse than half ass, and the rest is ridiculous measurement and misguided effort.

you have the broad strokes of the bond market correct, for US treasuries, (and most of the other investment grade bonds but especially Treasuries - to a lesser degree munis)  however there are a few other issues you have to consider in pricing.

About to pontificate - fair warning:

A bond is essentially a promise to trade money now, for a promise of a stream of money in the future and then your money back. t-bill is the same but with no coupons, i.e. no flow just a payout of face value at the end.

Now when a company issues a bond, their credit worthiness is a factor in how much they have to promise to pay in order to get the money in in the first place. The seriously dodgy credit rating industry "certifies" the bond on a rating scale- usually AAA at the best rate down to a junk rating. Triple A pays the lowest coupon as they are the least likely to default, and junk pays a high rate as they are more likely to fail and not pay back the money.

so far so good. Now when you look at any investment you only consider the NPV i.e. you try and assess the Net Present Value (NPV) of the money. So say for example I am getting $100 in 2 years, what is that actually worth to me now. In order to do that you have to assess the risk free rate of that payment. Every borrower and lender has a different risk free rate, and there is a whole (allegedly scientific, but basically mathematically driven speculation) division of most banks that look at very complex ways to build a yield curve which they can agree is the value of payments in the future. This is the first piece of the puzzle. The second piece (or First Derivative! (you know who you are)) is the volatility surface. No matter how good your model is for predicting that future value- things change. Everything changes actually, but economists, and by implication quants, have used the idea of ceteris paribus to pretend they don't change that much. This volatility is also important, and that brings us back full circle to why there are other factors involved.

the interest rate (as per seafoid's example) is often quoted and that is a landmine in definition all on its own- but what we are really looking for is a good approximation to that risk free rate of borrowing which we can find using one of those fancy yield curves with their cubic splining and their binomials, trinomials and monte carlo simulations.

 Lets take a look at the other factors.
- Housing industry, more houses sold= more mortgages = more need to hedge 30 year debt= more long term treasuries needed= higher priced treasuries (demand and supply!).
- GDP- how is the US economy stacking up against other economies= predictor for currency exchange rates
- Consumption indicators- how much are people spending and how much are they saving (note to reader- people are stupid - if you want one piece of advice- save more)
- manufacturing indicators- good for wage assessment, short term borrowing requirements, national exchange and trade signals
- the national debt- you can figure this one out.
and depending on your access to data and compute resources (and decent mathematicians, or data scientists, or predictive analytics) you can model these whatever way you want and add as many other factors as you'd like...

So when it comes down to it the price of a bond however it is based on how likely the issuer is to continue making those payments "my word is my bond" and how valuable those payments are to the individual who buys them at the time of valuation

In essence though, all of these can be modeled reasonably successfully, but the 2 biggest factors we haven't touched yet, and they are actually much harder to model accurately are political influence and marketing

1. political influence:
uneducated misguided corrupt dumbasses with no economic background in real life (aka politicians) have been the implementors of the all government budget and debt programs to make good on their asinine claims of what they will do when they are elected. i.e. Greece- we're going to default. Trump- we're gonna buy em back. Trump- forgot to tell you how great I am. Bush, no new taxes, Obama, self reliance for energy. Putin, I'm invading everyone. Boris, we're leaving, Cam, we're staying. All of these jackasses make big promises with the flimsiest of informational background, lots of shitty opinions and no idea of the ramifications for their economy.*

2. Marketing
educated misguided corrupt dumbasses wth no economic background in real life (aka academics) have been propagating half baked assumptions in public in the schools and in the press about the worlds economy for the best part of 4000 years. And when you combine those d**kheads with the d**kheads in point 1 you make for a scenario where it becomes shockingly difficult for someone outside of the system to get a handle on what's really going on and no one in the system wants those outsiders to see, because odds are they'll see how bad a job they are doing- bring on the robots I say.

And that's how you price a bond!


* if you want a stable progressive economy there are a few rules- rule 1 is look after the people (all of the people- not just the ones that elected you- or your mates).
However should you be about to govern somewhere- please try the following and publish the data be transparent on its collection- it'll help trust me!
    be transparent about where you're spending the money we are giving you and why. i shouldn't need to ask- you should be telling me.

    • facilitate ease of access to quality education for all residents (not just one group citizens or otherwise)
    • implement a progressive simple tax system for personal and corporate taxes
    • commit to significant government funding of quality infrastructure
    • implement a safety net for worst off - with an incentive based route out of the net
    • Provide ease of access to healthcare for all
    • Facilitate or provide ease of borrowing for innovation
    • Implement and adhere to strict rules on corporate governance and finance
    • Implement and adhere to strict rules on political finance and lobbying
    • Implement and adhere to strict rules on political finance and lobbying
    • Implement and adhere to strict rules on political finance and lobbying (maybe 3rd time lucky for the aspiring politician)
    • Implement strict term rules on all political positions, career politicians are of no use to anyone, neither are business folks using political office for personal gain. You got a political job, it should be you taking one for the team, thanks and now you're done- go back to your old life, appreciate your help- no you can't have any of my money to get elected again.
    • Very strong enforcement of law on all of the above by non political appointees
    • Well funded neutral and quick transparent legal system that facilitates the above
    If that is too complicated- go back to rule 1, and don't pay consultants to tell us how you're looking after our best interest even though you're looking after yourself and your mates at our expense.

General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: May 22, 2016, 07:34:08 PM »
Ask congress why

General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: May 17, 2016, 11:06:39 AM »
the actual issue with false equivalence is the perpetuation of the myth that the make up of both parties in the US is broadly similar in terms of moderates and hardliners.

The truth not surprisingly is somewhat different:

In a large part of the US, the "message" from the evangelical pulpit and the message from the catholic pulpit are indistinguishable. So many catholic priests will on the weeks leading up to the election trot out the old "vote GOP if you're catholic because they are the only pro-life/ preserving the sanctity of marriage / protecting our children's bathrooms party." Same priests will be genuinely amazed at the dropping church attendance of the young.

What law is there of any kind preventing parents (including morons, politically correct or otherwise) checking on their children in any kind of room? Bath or otherwise.

This is getting dumber by the post.

Say (for arguments sake) you have a point, any chance you would get to it?

This is the worst thread we have ever had on this board

The examples of our responses to the political incitement on this complete and utter non issue are damning. The fear mongering and political point scoring, the complete disregard for facts, the truth in any shape or form being ignored. This is not a discussion. This is a disgrace.

Be your own fact finders, try and find one law enforcement agent from any of the (i beleieve 13) states where this law has been in effect who will point to any increase in illegal behavior of any kind.

"Think of the children"

odds are someone on this board has a transgender kid.
Now lets try some maths

What are the odds on one of your children being molested by someone in a bathroom that they wouldnt have been molested by if this law was in place? Evidence and statistics  please not your very highly valued opinions.

General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: May 15, 2016, 05:39:07 AM »

These analyses make for intetesting reading. Good odds on Hillary eclipsing Obsma's electoral college results from the re-election

Romney out there seeking a third way candidate to save the GOP majority in the state races. Quite a few sitting representatives looking like they are in diffs as the recent tend is to vote single party in the return.

Could the anti-Trump sentiment swing the trifecta of president, house and senate?

P.s.  Would you wise up on the BLM stuff you're making yourselves look like the worst kind of bigot. Same goes for the transgender bathroom "debate". What next "God controls the weather"?

General discussion / Re: American Sports Thread
« on: May 13, 2016, 08:07:06 PM »
not sure i'd agree with you on Parker, he played a one man press almost the whole game on Westbrook last night, coast to coast the entire night forced a few turnovers, drew offensive fouls, his o was significantly better with Duncan on the court though. Manu was not at himself at all and faded fast these playoffs. Given the regular season they had, I'd say Duncan will take the 1 year extension.

General discussion / Re: The Many Faces of US Politics...
« on: May 11, 2016, 02:36:33 AM »
Ya wanna check your sources there fella?
Would those be the dead heats that the polls are referring to?

Or are these separate polls you did yourself?

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