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Messages - heganboy

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General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 28, 2016, 02:13:12 AM »
 in new York today a guy was telling me about the Brexit 4% swing.

His theory is that the leave campaign attracted 4% more of the people with an IQ over 100  than remain were able to capture of those scoring under 100.

His English boss said "wait I voted leave"

"Yo, see what I mean" said brass neck...

General discussion / Re: The OFFICIAL Liverpool FC thread
« on: June 28, 2016, 01:28:22 AM »
Jese would be a great loan signing from real Madrid, Liverpool not in Europe so no conflict.

What does everyone feel about Mane?

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 27, 2016, 11:25:37 PM »
If only Cameron were smart enough for this and to have out maneuvered the whole exit team, this is from the comment section in the Guardian reacting to the Brexit..

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.


Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-manoeuvred and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

General discussion / Re: The Official Euro 2016 Thread
« on: June 27, 2016, 11:14:04 PM »

i couldn't get that link to work, but its here and its funny...

Hodgson Neville and the team all resigned

General discussion / Re: The Official Euro 2016 Thread
« on: June 27, 2016, 09:57:05 PM »
that is an phenomenal result, and completely fair based on the performance.
Why wilshere instead of henderson? Why wait nearly 15 minutes from standing Rashford up to putting him on?
Mr Hodgson has no way back from that. Nor has most of that England team...
The headlines are going to slaughter those players tomorrow.

General discussion / Re: The Official Euro 2016 Thread
« on: June 27, 2016, 09:31:34 PM »
this is a very strange game to watch. Sludge looks like he doesn't care, Kane looks knackered, Rooney is off his game but working hard. not sure what Dele Alli is up to at all. As McManaman says- its like they all decided to have the worst game of their life on the same day. there has to be someone on the bench that could grab this by the scruff of the next from England's point of view

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 27, 2016, 07:28:19 PM »
however corrupt they may be they have an impact,
Standard and Poors (S&P) just dropped GB's credit rating two notches, one of the for reasons given was NI and Scotland's vote to stay in.

Ouch, and yet another kick in the pocket...

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 27, 2016, 05:29:16 PM »
Barclays has lost fully a third of its value from over 30B to 20B, share price tumble from 186- 125 in two days trading...

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 24, 2016, 08:34:07 PM »
not sure why I'm bothering, but here goes

Switzerland do alright.
in that Switzerland is a stable well educated social equal population with stable politics and stable monetary policy, a currency that has plummeted, and it meets all the EU's trading regulations on purpose  (as opposed to what the Brexiters are proposing)
"these EU regulations are killing us..."

 As does Norway oil that the government owns,
 Israel dependent on the US,
 US, China
 are you seriously comparing the UK's economy to the US and China- maybe 150 years ago when there was an empire

You are deluded if you think the UK won't be able to trade with EU members. They're the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world. They'll work it out!
sure they will- but at what cost what delusion now?

Immigration is a factor too.
this cracks me up
fear is the factor not immigration
what do you think leaving the EU is going to do to immigration?
what is immigration doing that is affecting your life so badly?
who do you think does the low paid work when the immigrants leave?

oh thats right you will and your family will and they will be glad to, because the economy will be such a state that there won't be better jobs, and there sure as shit won't be a national insurance and pensions safety net to save you

Infrastructures can't cope with massive influxes of people; hospitals, doctors, schools etc. Another good reason to get out. Should've happened 10 years ago.
this is where the get you, in the long grass.
when you put the needs of the rich above the needs of the poor the whole country suffers. the relaxation of corporate tax, loopholes, capital gains and reduced income taxes at the highest bands you don't have money for your national health service, education and you suffer a massive infrastructure debt (which was actually funded by the EU) Look back to thatcher and her policies, and now reap what they sowed. They built a system to encourage a wealth gap a make it wider, but what happens when the left behind uneducated poor get an equal vote to the rich protected capital providers?

infrastructure and invention were what the empire was built on.
the problem is not the infrastructure now, the problem is 30 years of underinvestment in the infrastructure, education and the health service.
Helps when the electorate is woefully under informed

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 24, 2016, 05:32:13 PM »
What worries me is the people in NI who voted Leave. Many of the English voters were duped (imho) whereas voters here... What exactly do they, as someone from Northern Ireland, stand to benefit from? The only argument I've heard from pro-brexit unionists is that it's a "uk-wide issue"; that theyve just done what their idiot politicans have told them to do

Anecdotally, a lot of folks in the north have viewed this referendum as an opportunity to reassert their Britishness.

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 24, 2016, 05:26:08 PM »
I wonder will Arlene be so smug when the likes of Citigroup up sticks and move to Dublin?

I'm not so sure that this is an immediate concern but definitely not he 5-7 year horizon

A much more immediate problem is the reality is that a lot of the companies who were very advanced in their plans to move to the north will stall out until the uncertainty is no longer a concern in whatever that should be. The markets and CFOs hate uncertainty and unpredictability.

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 24, 2016, 05:16:01 PM »
The City of London is f%cked. Thousands of jobs will be lost . Maybe they can be replaced with the 350 m...

Seafoid- very valid point. There's a reason London voted stay. Morgan Stanley have already come out and declared they are considering the move of their EU headquarters to Dublin. The timing of the Brexit at the same time as the UK is pressing global companies to pay more UK tax incentivizes these firms to move to the only remaining English speaking country remaining in the EU.

The economic shock to the whole of the UK of this decision is a long way away from being realized at this point. Scotland and Northern Ireland in particular are better off in the EU, as are England and Wales (not to mention Gibraltar) but more noticeably Scotland and NI.

General discussion / Re: Sinn Fein? They have gone away, you know.
« on: June 24, 2016, 04:28:34 PM »
Sinn Fein have backed a loser in a two horse race. Time for a new leadership and a new direction, time to get rid of the leaders who are controlled by their British paymasters.

can you explain this?

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 24, 2016, 04:27:06 PM »
Will we end up with the North being some kind of tripartite ruled "special administrative area" -
A foot in an All Ireland set up, a foot in the "new UK" of England and Wales and of course a foot in the EU?
Nationalists will have their UI, Unionists will have their UK and the EU will continue with the grants to cover what we and the English/Welsh can't or won't pay for?

as proposals go there are merits in yours (I believe) I think that part of the all ireland "foot" would cover the EU eligibility. The Barnett model that controls the block grant allocation to NI, Scotland and Wales makes for some interesting reading. Economics may be a driver, but as this week's results show it is not the only thing. What will be interesting to see if there are legitimately viable models proposed over the next few weeks, and whether they get any political support. Enda says he has more serious issues to address first (relating to the border poll issue) so does that mean it will be addressed? The fact that this hasn't been considered as part of the Brexit contingency plan may be indicative of the short sightedness of the current political class. The economic benefit of the integration of the north into the economy of the Republic would actually be a massive boost to the island's economy, and that boost is within the grasp of this administration, question is- do they know how to grasp it?

General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: June 24, 2016, 03:50:00 PM »
i freely admit that I saw no way in which this was possible, completely wrong.

Now what?

for those who are interested there is a once in a lifetime opportunity to bring about a lasting and inclusive peaceful island. The breakdown by council of the vote makes for fascinating reading. The inward investment in northern ireland stops abruptly with an EU exit. The 12.5% corp tax makes little to no impact with UK outside of the EU. The farming community will be decimated with NI outside of the EU.

Sinn Fein's knee jerk reaction for the border poll certainly brings the topic to the forefront of the news as part of a UK breakup. The real issue is whether the fledgling government in the Republic can create a mechanism to facilitate the absorption of a northern Ireland state while at the same time preserving the rights and influence of the unionist population. A concerted effort and a cross party initiative to put forward that proposal could take the prospect of a "more united Ireland" rather than the absolute of the traditional United Ireland prospect into a best possible solution for all.

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