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Messages - omaghjoe

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1
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: Today at 12:41:22 AM »
House of Commons to vote through withdrawal agreement on October 19:

Yes: 4/5
No: 6/5

I wonder if a second referendum can be attached to it as a condition for some opposition support.

Update:
Yes: 8/11
No: 11/10

I read that as a passage in the Commons looking slightly more likely.

Hedging?

2
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: Today at 12:16:57 AM »
Seems like the ERG are all coming on board even Mark Francois and Peter Bone are going to back it... haven't heard about Bill Cash, also sounds like a good number of those that lost the whip a few weeks back are going to back it.
Some reports that at least 11 Labour MPs said they'll rebel... the stars could actually be aligning for BJ.

I still dont think that many Labour MPs will rebel.... but we'll see

3
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 18, 2019, 05:09:59 AM »
My figures have it the Deal will be rejected 321  - 318. Had 7Labour MPs voting in favour of the Deal however a few journalists are predicting 10-12 Labour could vote in favour, I still wouldn’t rule out Boris edging this.

7 seems at the upper end...what has been the max number of labour rebels on Brexit? I think its was 5 for May's 3rd attempt. Over 10 seems unlikely but stranger things have happened..tho in saying that would it really be that tough of a sell in labour constituencies that are impoverished that this deal will erode your rights even more.

What sylvia hermon gonna do? Seems like a decent deal for NI

What's the chances of an approval referendum being squeezed into the ammendments?
 

4
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:31:37 PM »
A lot of talk  that they're close deal in principle and there could be a legal text tomorrow...sounds like an NI only backstop.

I dare say IF they get there it will be another Parliament numbers game.... after an imminent extension.

5
General discussion / Re: You're All British in the North Now!!
« on: October 15, 2019, 03:26:33 PM »
Britain - Union between England and Wales
Great Britain - Union between England Wales and Scotland

UK - GB & 6 counties
Free State - demilitrised zone for quislings

This is typical of the general public's rationale to understand the terminology of the jurisdiction of these islands

6
General discussion / Re: You're All British in the North Now!!
« on: October 14, 2019, 11:56:29 PM »
If you're born in the North you're a Brit... deal with it!!


Quote
People born in Northern Ireland remain British citizens according to the law, even if they identify as Irish, tribunal judges have determined.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50041729

Indeed even if you hold an Irish passport you remain British until you pay a fee and renounce your Britishness. Really makes you question why it’s even referenced in the Belfast Agreement as those born in NI purporting to be Irish are in the same position as pretty much any other nationality in the world under British law.
A person born in the 6 counties is automatically a dual national at birth, Irish and British. All the GFA references is identity, that a nordie has the right to identify as Irish only. To identify as Irish only does not mean that the person is not a British national. If Nordies were really serious they would go through the process and give up their British nationality, it would not affect their legal status in NI nor bring into disrepute their dedicated loyalty to the British subvention.

Surprisingly I agree with this to an extent...

I've come to view passports and citizenship for what they are, that is a document that entitles you access and protection to the laws of a sovereign state and allows you to enter other sovereign states.
Even tho sovereign states especially European ones frequently project themselves as nation states and equate citizenship to cultural and ethnic identity, it certainly has no right to include or exclude anyone cultural identity, because they are feck all to do your cultural identity, in fact they are really just a parasite of cultural identity that uses it for their own uses.

Bottom line is....an Irish passport doesn't make me feel more or less Irish and a British passport certainly doesn't make me feel British

If something else was desired from the Good Friday agreement it should have been more explicit because the way it is worded means nothing, the Brits prob saw a weak negotiating team on the nationalist side that didn't really fully understand things from a legal viewpoint.

7
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 11, 2019, 11:58:04 PM »
I think Labour are in some diffs. A lot of their MPs represent constituencies that voted leave. If they scupper Bozo’s plan to get out by 31 October they’ll get hammered at the polls.

They can hardly leave in an orderly way by 31 October at this stage, they'll need an extension, there isn't time to pass all the legislation.

You've taken it up all wrong. The deadline of the 31st is the no-deal or plan how Britain leaves the EU. Johnson's deal with the EU will be to continue in the institution for 2-3 years whilst final negotiations are concluded.

No.... Once Article 50 is invoked you have the 2 years to get an agreement for arrangements after you leave. When the 2 years are up you leave the EU under the terms of that agreement (or ask for an extension for more time to come to an agreement.
After that you will be out under the terms of that agreement, and you can have further agreements on trade, security or whatever else you fancy.

31 Oct is the end of that 2 year period (plus extension) after invoking Article50. So if there is no agreement in place by then, there will be no deal. The UK will be out of the EU and trade will conducted on WTO terms. It is practically impossible to get a deal thru at this point. If BoJo is serious he will need an extension no matter what he says.

8
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 11, 2019, 04:45:27 AM »
Is this all not typical of BoJo tho.
Appear to be leaning one way, then the other.

Fact is his support base is now the the ERG and co... so when he goes back to Downing St and is talking to Cummings et al he will be back on to the hard Brexit line..... prob all for someone to make money on the swings on the pound.... or maybe its just Boris getting caught up in the mood of the company that he is in at any one time.

Supposedly some cabinet ministers close to giving Bojo an ultimatum to ship Cummings out.

Aye Nicky Morgan, Cox etc.... but sure hes only trying to keep things half middling together.
Sounds of things he caved for Leo on something big... most likely NI... so hows he gonna sell that to the rest of his right wing cabinet and a healthy portion of his MPs? He cant...

Only way he can get this thru is with Jeremy Corbyns support as he will need  prob most Labour MPs to back it considering he will have lost the DUP the ERG, no way the LDs will vote for any type of Brexit, likewise SNP unless he includes Scotland in whatever NI gets not to mention the various MPs that left or got booted out of the party....cant see either of those happening.

Basically any deal he comes up with is gonna be in the same boat as May's deal.

By this time next week I dare say this chunk of light will be fairly well extinguished but he may keep it floating around as an excuse for an extension.

9
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 10, 2019, 04:48:09 PM »
Is this all not typical of BoJo tho.
Appear to be leaning one way, then the other.

Fact is his support base is now the the ERG and co... so when he goes back to Downing St and is talking to Cummings et al he will be back on to the hard Brexit line..... prob all for someone to make money on the swings on the pound.... or maybe its just Boris getting caught up in the mood of the company that he is in at any one time.

10
General discussion / Re: Death Notices
« on: October 09, 2019, 05:42:34 PM »
Very sad to hear RIP

11
General discussion / Re: Things that make you go What the F**k?
« on: October 07, 2019, 06:56:10 AM »
This is mad.....quite apart from anything else the  inconsistency of standards applied to loyalism compared to anything else in the west is ridiculous. Didnt the whole country of Denmatk get pulled across the coals for a magazine depicting a cartoon image of Muhammad ffs....

12
General discussion / Re: You know what really grinds my gears?
« on: October 06, 2019, 07:21:55 AM »
Weird how posters personality comes thru even online...again and again.....!
cmon mods like ffs you can more or less confirm immediately if a banned poster has a new user name.

13
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 04, 2019, 07:02:31 PM »
Shows the weakness of their position if their hopes are pinned on Hungary


14
General discussion / Re: venezuela. What's it all about?
« on: October 04, 2019, 06:57:25 PM »
A socialist banana (oil) republic. Huge public spending based on oil revenues which have now dried up, leaving a population starving and destitute, with a government clinging to power. The self appointed interim President is most likely an American pawn.
The people will suffer.

They haven't dried up. Other countries are refusing to buy it.
It's the opposite of banana which seems to be the problem they have.

Ehh yes they have, the state took over oilfields that they dont have the expertise to exploit and the entire production infrastructure is crumbling from under investment.
To exasperate the problem Maduro put military men in charge of the oil and they dont have a clue what they are doing.

That's just not the case.
It is the refusal to buy from Venezuela because of US pressure on third parties that has caused a lack of investment in maintenance. it's got feck all top do with local expertise.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-exports/venezuelan-oil-exports-rise-but-not-enough-to-drain-stocks-idUSKBN1WH15N

Not saying your not correct but its all relative..... They used to export 2.5million BBD 3 years ago. Now they are under 1million the majority of that drop is exclusively due to production ability.... So with the production loss they lost their customers and were politically ostracised both of which adversely affects their ability to export. So now they can produce more than they sell doesn't mean that they can produce anywhere near the levels they were at before if they were able to find the buyers.


15
General discussion / Re: Brexit.
« on: October 02, 2019, 05:40:20 PM »
There's a simple counter to this that the EU could put forward safe in the knowledge that the Tories/DUP would reject it and thus make them look like they are the ones rejecting the people's will.

That is... the special zone in NI could be passed by a simple majority in Stormont and in the case of Stormont not sitting NI could decide by voting on it.

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