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Messages - AQMP

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1
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: Today at 04:20:56 PM »
People Before Profit to run a second candidate in West Belfast.  Could be final nail in coffin for Alex Attwood??

2
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: Today at 02:58:46 PM »
Bell is a "Free Methodist" whatever the f**k that is.  It sounds fundamentalist and thus he might attract a few Free P's if he runs.  Michelle McIlveen is a Free P but I think Simon Hamilton is Church of Ireland.

3
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: Today at 02:32:29 PM »
SF running 4 candidates in FST last time out cost them a seat, if they run 3 this time out they should get them all returned.

There are 2 seats in Upper Bann for SF if they manage their vote properly.

I reckon Newry & Armagh will be 3SF, 1DUP & 1SDLP with Danny Kennedy to lose out.

Strangford will be interesting to see if Jonathan Bell damages the DUP vote.

In a Unionist dominant area like Strangford I can see the UUP take a seat off the DUP if they get their finger out.

Alliance will hold their seat but won't have enough to get two.
 

Unfortunately going down to 5 seats means any outside chance of a nationalist seat here has gone. Good news though the boundary changes next time gets rid of alot of these very unionist areas same for west belfast meaning most people will get some sort of representation

In Strangford you'd think Nesbitt, Hamilton, McIlveen and Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) will be safe enough.  Will Bell run, is the big question??  If he doesn't you might see someone like Jimmy Menagh benefit.

4
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: Today at 02:06:05 PM »
60,000 voters removed from the register in December 2016

Voters removed by constituency
Belfast East 2,379
Belfast North 4,463
Belfast South 3,213
Belfast West 5,759
East Antrim 2,323
East Londonderry 2,651
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 3,014
Foyle 4,912
Lagan Valley 2,554
Mid Ulster 3,145
North Antrim 2,795
North Down 2,310
Newry & Armagh 4,534
South Antrim 2,997
South Down 4,012
Strangford 2,449
Upper Bann 3,451
West Tyrone 3,472

All these are significant numbers but maybe people who don't keep themselves on the register don't vote.  Could have an effect when the number of MLAs are being reduced.

On what basis are they removed and can you check if you're on the register??

5
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: Today at 01:10:28 PM »
SF running 4 candidates in FST last time out cost them a seat, if they run 3 this time out they should get them all returned.

There are 2 seats in Upper Bann for SF if they manage their vote properly.

I reckon Newry & Armagh will be 3SF, 1DUP & 1SDLP with Danny Kennedy to lose out.

Strangford will be interesting to see if Jonathan Bell damages the DUP vote.

Michelle Gildernew, Sean Lynch and interestingly (and maybe for gender balance across NI) Jemma Dolan are going forward for selection with John Feely and Phil Flanagan sitting it out this time.

6
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: Today at 12:07:28 PM »
Well folks, drew up my prediction for March 2nd election:

Election 2017 predictions

Fermanagh South Tyrone: 2DUP 2SF 1UUP
Newry\Armagh: 2SF 1DUP 1UUP 1SDLP
W Belfast: 4SF 1PBP
S Belfast: 2DUP 1SDLP 1SF 1AP
N Belfast: 3DUP 2SF
E Belfast: 3DUP 2AP
North Down: 2DUP 1GP 1UUP 1AP
Stangford: 3DUP 1UUP 1AP
South Down: 2SDLP 2SF 1DUP
Upper Bann: 2DUP 2UUP 1SF
Lagan Valley: 3DUP 1AP 1UUP
South Antrim: 3DUP 1SF 1UUP
East Antrim: 3DUP 1UUP 1AP
North Antrim: 3DUP 1TUV 1SF
Mid Ulster: 3SF 1SDLP 1DUP
East Derry: 3DUP 1SF 1IND
Foyle: 2SDLP 2SF 1DUP
West Tyrone: 3SF 1DUP 1SDLP

DUP: 37
SF: 25
UUP: 9
SDLP: 8
AP: 7
GP: 1
TUV: 1
PBP: 1
IND: 1

Don't think the scandals will effect the DUPs performance  as unionists will stick by the DUP regardless but again I could be wrong. Some seats will be very tight for the last remaining seat, transfers will be very important this time around.

Interesting that you've the DUP basically coming back stronger as they only lose 1 seat when there are 18 MLAs going anyway.  I'll wait until we see who is running where.  But in S Belfast, I'd bet on Claire Bailey (Greens) keeping her seat at the expense of Stalford (DUP).  Depends too on who the UUP run there, a high profile candidate could boost their chances.  If Nats would transfer to each other in significant numbers McPhillips (SDLP) could hang on at the expense of Barton (UUP) in F/Sth Tyrone.

Turnout is going to be significant of course, as is transfer "policy" and the Lucid Talk poll suggests 28% of voters will change their vote from 2016.  If that's accurate then all predictions could be out the window.

My gut still tells me that this election is a big risk for SF.  They need to guard against the narrative that is most people's default position and that is that "they're both as bad as each other".

7
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: January 16, 2017, 03:02:52 PM »
John O'Dowd has said that SF will be running 2 candidates in Upper Bann.

8
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: January 16, 2017, 02:54:24 PM »
This election could serve a useful purpose it is creates a majority of MLA's willing to vote for special treatment for NI to mitigate the consequences of Brexit. The British may not pay much heed, but an assembly that fails to ask is a waste of space. This would require one of the PBP loonies to lose to SF/SDLP and for Alliance to hold the centre seats, while the DUP lose a seat or two in the smaller assembly. This outcome seems perfectly possible.
Is anyone in the DUP anti Brexit?

Simon Hamilton??

9
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: January 16, 2017, 02:26:52 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

A lot of sitting MLAs won't be nominated because the number of seats is down from 6to 5 in each constituency.  I would assume that factors high in the decision to stand down by SF. Also relevant is the number of standing DUP MLAs saying they won't canvas.

Will the UUP make it a Brexit election? Or a DUP are crooked election. What have the SDLP other than a few decent MLAs to offer? And can they make any headway? SF constituency as strong as they believe?

Will voters turn out?

Having bust a gut to get two seats last time, there aren't two SF seats in a 5 seater.  I wonder if SDLP pick up enough transfers from SF could they nick a seat seat from UUP?

10
General discussion / Re: Stormont Assembly Elections 2017
« on: January 16, 2017, 02:11:07 PM »
Interesting one reported by Sam McBride on Twitter that Catherine Seeley (SF) has announced she won't be standing in this election.  She was only elected in May 2016 following a close call/brilliant vote management in Upper Bann as SF took two seats and ousted Dolores Kelly.

11
General discussion / Re: Martin Mc Guinness
« on: January 16, 2017, 12:39:50 PM »
Michelle O'Neill doing the talking for SF today in the Assembly.

12
General discussion / Re: Death Notices
« on: January 13, 2017, 03:37:56 PM »
1978 was almost 40 years ago.I said World Cup Finals

USA '94?
but do carry on, this is fun

But Taylor was the manager then, which is Tony's point??

13
General discussion / Re: Rory McIlroy
« on: January 13, 2017, 12:09:45 PM »
Hold on... he didn't wanna go to the Olympics cause he's scared of offending his mates? His mates like?

He's in a position to be the fuckin Mufasa of ALL his (real) mates. Unless you meant he was worried about annoying Niall Horan? Then I'd buy it.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. He's brought up in a culture of supporting OWC and Ulster Rugby and his mates would all be british passport holders. (They're the people that want to know why they cannot vote Tory or Labour in local elections). So clearly in that environment Rory will have no affiliation whatsoever with Ireland or being Irish.

Which makes his delight at winning the Irish Open rather puzzling. His celebration looked pretty genuine to me.

I'd say there's a big number of nationalists / republicans on this board carrying British passports (though few would admit to it)

Me!!  :-[

Mods!!!

14
General discussion / Re: Rory McIlroy
« on: January 13, 2017, 12:08:58 PM »
Hold on... he didn't wanna go to the Olympics cause he's scared of offending his mates? His mates like?

He's in a position to be the fuckin Mufasa of ALL his (real) mates. Unless you meant he was worried about annoying Niall Horan? Then I'd buy it.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. He's brought up in a culture of supporting OWC and Ulster Rugby and his mates would all be british passport holders. (They're the people that want to know why they cannot vote Tory or Labour in local elections). So clearly in that environment Rory will have no affiliation whatsoever with Ireland or being Irish.

Which makes his delight at winning the Irish Open rather puzzling. His celebration looked pretty genuine to me.

I'd say there's a big number of nationalists / republicans on this board carrying British passports (though few would admit to it)

Me!!  :-[

I'd always an Irish one then got a british one (mainly for handieness) and thats up next year i think, so will get an Irish one next time

Just for info MR2, why did you think it was handier to get a Brit one??

15
General discussion / Re: Arlene and The Renewable Heat Incentive
« on: January 12, 2017, 05:26:50 PM »
Would there be any benefit in nationalist voters giving transfers to UUP and PUP candidates? Mike "Postman Pat" Nesbitt would likely be easier to work with than Foster or any other cretin the DUP's likely to put in charge, so it'd do no harm to give them a bit of a boost. And the PUP has always struck me as pretty progressive and forward-looking, once you look past the paramilitary links. They strike me as a brake pedal on the loyalists in the same was as SF were for the Provos.

There might be benefit in Nationalists transferring to other Nationalists!! 

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