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Messages - Hound

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1
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 12, 2020, 04:41:57 PM »
So are you saying that supply is not the problem?

Supply is part of the problem.

Landlords having the purchasing power (no doubt many by dint of their rental incomes) to price out folks looking to buy-to-live is another.
landlords are actually exiting the sector
especially small landlords

a lot of houses in towns are being bought by investment funds, renovated and then high rents set as the houses are in good areas
other landlords see the rents rising, so do so likewise

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cairn-sells-229-homes-to-landlord-for-78m-1.4135996

This is what you are up against. Capitalism at its finest.

Exactly what I mean. How is the average couple supposed to go up against that?

Never mind someone on their own looking to buy a roof for over their head!
Besides the point I know, but if I had €78.75million to spare, I don't think I'd use it to buy 229 apartments, houses and duplexes in Adamstown! Part of an 1,100 unit concrete jungle by the sounds of it.

2
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 12, 2020, 04:32:04 PM »
Brendan Howlin to resign as Labour leader. Leo Varadkar to do the same? Fine Gael had its worst election result since 1948.

Hopefully anyone but Alan Kelly to replace him.

Leo won't resign and I doubt he'll be pushed just yet anyway, maybe in the months ahead though

It's a funny one re the mechanics. Leo has to resign as Taoiseach when the Dail resumes in a week or two. But if there's no agreement on a coalition by then, then he has to stay on as Caretaker Taoiseach. And the Cabinet has to continue on as Caretaker Ministers, even though the likes of Ross and Zappone are no longer TDs. None of the caretakers are allowed to resign their posts until the new government is formed.

Technically Leo could resign as FG leader but he would still have to continue as Caretaker Taoiseach, so I couldn't see that happening.
So it's likely Leo has a good month left as leader of the country. Could all look a bit silly if it's the current crew representing Ireland at all the worldwide St Patrick's Day festivities, but it is what it is I suppose.

3
Interesting debate on the Wooly podcast re time added on, with particular reference to the Dublin v Monaghan match.

The 6 minutes wasn't discussed, but the 3.30 added on after the 6 was the key issue.

I checked the recording on Sunday morning, and thought based on my understanding of the rules that the ref got it spot on.

There was a 2 minute stoppage after a Dublin score when the ref went down the other end of the pitch to book 3 players.
There was a 1.30 stoppage after an injury around the middle of the field (the one the ref should have let McManus have an advantage for, but he'd already blown too early)

I can't remember exactly, but there was at least 2, if not 3 substitutions that happened during those two stoppages which played a part in extending them. But overall 3.30 was spot on. 

Conan on the show said he counted more than 4 minutes of stoppage time, so that should have allowed Monaghan have one last attack. He added on the time Beggan took to come up and take frees during injury time.

Pat McEnenany was on to explain the actual rules:

As I thought, you don't add on time for a freetaker taking a free. That's normal playing time. If the ref judges that the player takes too long, then it's a throw ball.
But I thought that if there was a throw ball for timewasting, then the ref would add on the time wasted as extra time. But that's wrong. The only punishment is throw ball, no additional time is added (which isn't logical!)

What surprised me more is McEnenany disagreed with adding time for the bookings. That's normal playing time he said.
(Although it did remind me of a ladies semi final between Dublin and Cork about 6 or 7 years ago. Dublin 1 point behind, 45 seconds left on the clock, a Dublin girl charging forward around midfield and taken out of it. The refs blows for the free. Calls the Cork girl offer to give her a talking to and a card, which takes about 40 seconds. Clock doesn't stop and hooter blows just as Dubs take the free so the Cork booking cost them the (slim) chance they had of equalising).

Anyway, Pat's take on it was that the ref should have just added between 2.00 and 2.30 for the 3 substitutions and the 1 injury stoppage. Personally I think it's a nonsense not to stop the clock for time taken to book a player, as it would otherwise encourage players not carded to get a card in injury time as a way of defending a lead and run down the clock!

Conan had a good idea that the "Stopwatch Clock" should be brought in but only used for added time. And that it stops for every stoppage in injury time so everyone knows where they are and full value is got for the stoppage time.

4
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:33:51 PM »
But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

There is more than one mindset there when you sweep the boards in a general election. SF benefitted from disillusionment on all sides. Most people are happy to see higher taxes once they're not the ones paying.
Yep. SF knew they wouldn't go wrong with that message.

5
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:29:24 PM »
Imo the best bet for a coalition is FF FG GP, no more minority party government. The inclusion of the Greens into the mix will change the dynamics of the coalition and make the arrangement somewhat palatable.

While personally I'm dead against SF being in government, you have to respect the will of the electorate in a general election. SF forming part of the next government is clearly the will of the people.

Negotiations won't be easy, but the ball is firmly in SF's court and they've two channels for getting into government. Rainbow left or the more realistic combination with FF and Green. There's no excuse not to get it done. They're politicians, it's their job to work it out.

If they don't get it done and go back to the electorate with the message - Sorry lads, we didn't run enough candidates. Let's do it all again so we can aim for 50 seats. That'd be a gamble. Could work. Could backfire.

6
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:16:46 PM »
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.



It is a very interesting response.

The Green and Labour responses are exactly as you'd expect.

The FF and FG responses are pretty much what you'd expect.

But SF is completely out of kilter for an election 'won' on the basis on health and housing. 43% of SF voters would prefer less tax than spending more on health or housing.  Interesting mindset to try and decipher.

7
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 11:24:55 AM »
Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó’Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)

A lot of those independents would change their left/right leanings if there was something on the table
For sure!

"We're goina need a bigger table!"

I'd say the list of demands from the 21 would make for interesting reading  :D

8
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 09:29:17 AM »
Effectively 21 independents. This is them. SF need 14, assuming they can reach agreement with the other small parties (which is a big assumption given the history of left parties disagreeing with each other, but they've never had as big an opportunity)

About 10 of these are left or leftish, if the information below is correct, and a few more in the centre. So technically it's not without hope, but practically each one will want his/her pound of flesh, so you wouldn't bet on agreement:

Clare - Michael McNamara (former Labour, left)
Cork South-West - Michael Collins (Ind - seems to be right wing)
Donegal - Thomas Pringle (ex-SF - left)
Dublin South-Central - Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change - left)
Galway East - Sean Canney (Ind – centre?)
Galway West - Noel Grealish (ex-PD, right)
Galway West - Catherine Connolly (ex Labour, left)
Kerry - Michael Healy-Rae (right)
Kerry - Danny Healy Rae (right)
Kildare South - Cathal Berry (Ind, open to talking to SF, so left)
Laois-Offaly - Carol Nolan (recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Limerick County - Richard Ó’Donoghue (ex FF)
Louth - Peter Fitzpatrick (ex FG, resigned due to abortion policy)
Meath West  - Peadar Tóibín (Aontú, recently resigned from SF due to abortion policy)
Roscommon-Galway - Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind, endorsed by Luke Ming, pro farmer, not keen on the Greens policies)
Roscommon-Galway - Denis Naughten (ex FG, right)
Sligo-Leitrim - Marian Harkin (Ind – leans left)
Tipperary - Michael Lowry (ex FG, right)
Tipperary - Mattie McGrath (ex FF, pro life, left FF after losing whip for voting against the ban on stag hunting)
Waterford - Matt Shanahan (Ind – seems to lean left)
Wexford - Verona Murphy (ex FG, right)


9
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:19:20 AM »
Quite a few are ex members of a bigger party that fell out for one reason or another but had done work in their area so people stayed with them. There are very few "single issue" independents today like there were before.
That seems bang on itchy.

The Verona Murphy example is a gas one. I heard her a good few times talking about Brexit on Eamon Dunphy's podcast, and she seemed competent, intelligent, etc.

So she joins FG and wants to be a TD. Then she said what she said, did badly in the by-election and got kicked out by FG. (Dunphy interestingly seems to have dumped her too).

So she runs as an Independent. Gets elected. And in her celebratory interview afterwards, she claims she got voted in because "the people wanted change"!
 
I don't know whether it was FGers who voted for her despite her being kicked out, or (more likely) it was part of the anyone but FF / FG brigade, but either way you'd have to question their choice, and possibly their sanity  ;)

10
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:06:31 AM »
19 Independents elected so far.  Is that not a bit of a cop out, for the most part just electing someone who’ll get you a wee motorway or a new school in your backyard.  Democratic it solves little or nothing for the country.

I completely agree. Fine voting for an Independent in a local election where they can do something or an EU election where they can do as little as anyone else. But IMO it's a shitehawk decision to vote for someone who thinks their way is the only way and there's not single grouping or party out there they're prepared to join with.

Anyone see a list of the 19 independents anywhere with their affiliation or previous affiliation?
SF need all the smaller parties and 12 independents to get 80 seats. Give Ceann Comhairle to FG or FF and they've a majority. Not sure if there's any chance of that but would be interesting to see the list. It's some opportunity, but you'd have to doubt whether they can make it happen.

If Mary Lou can't make that happen then it'll have to be a FF-SF-Green coalition. Or another election!

11
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 11, 2020, 07:57:33 AM »
The government's position on the €13 billion is somewhat irrelevant.

It's gone to appeal either way. Apple's team are leading their defence. If the government change sides it won't make one iota of a difference to the ultimate outcome of the case. They're pretending they are hoping Apple wins, while in reality I would say they wouldn't mind if they lose! But it does have to be remembered that Apple provide a huge benefit to the economy, particularly in Cork, so there's no point damning them in public, let the court system play out. The EU will not give Apple any easy win.

Again, the reporting on this case hasn't allowed for people to understand it.
Apple's tax ruling they received in 1980 wasn't actually disputed by the EU. The ruling said that 90% of the profits of their Bermudan resident company belonged to Bermuda and 10% belonged to the Bermudan's Irish branch. (Can't remember the exact %, but it was something like that).

The problem for Apple is it seems they didn't do what they said they'd do in the manner they said they would. And the problem for the government is that Revenue didn't audit Apple to ensure they were doing what they said they were doing. Revenue in the 80s was very poorly run, but made slow and steady progress since around the mid 90s and now it's the best run government agency.

The Commission's report that 0% of the profits belonged to Bermuda and 100% to Ireland was very persuading (I was full sure beforehand that Apple would win, other than the % split might change to maybe 80/20 or even 70/30, but certainly not 0/100! - but I hadn't realised the mistakes Apple made) but Apple disagree and the Commission's report is by its nature a bit one-sided. So it will be interesting to see how it goes - but there's nothing to be gained by the government publicly switching sides.

And of course it we do win, many countries in the EU and also the US will demand a big chunk. The EU countries have actually very little basis for claiming anything - they've already got their share and audited Apple for the relevant years. But they are generally extremely aggressive so technical right/wrong won't matter to them. The US would have a claim for the majority of it, but they won't want to hang Apple out to dry any further and would likely do something behind the scenes.

12
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 10, 2020, 07:54:23 PM »
McGrath of FF on the News saying they'll let Marylou get on with talking to left wingers to try and set up a left wing Government.
Yep, even if they end up with the most seats, FF have decided to let SF make the first attempt at forming a government with everyone bar FF FG

13
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 10, 2020, 12:50:44 PM »

Doherty is probably more capable than anyone on the FF benches

Not exactly a high bar right now though.
Well, there'll be some fresh faced FF'ers in this time, so we'll see what they're made of. But can't disagree that Doherty would seem more than capable.

It could be a huge benefit in normalising the party if they got Doherty into the finance portfolio, did a decent job and didn't go all commy/marxist like SF threatened to do in the past.

14
General discussion / Re: 26 County General Election 2020
« on: February 10, 2020, 11:18:49 AM »
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.
The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

15
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 - 2020
« on: February 09, 2020, 08:14:16 AM »
As someone that was shouting for Monghan throughout the game, I thought the ref was more than fair to them tbh. A number of easy frees given in the second half. The lack of play on to McManus looked bad because he was clear through but the whistle was blown for a contact foul long before that and Dubs stopped playing. Someone will have to do the clock on the injury time, went way over but a hell of a lot of the original 6 was wasted also so hard to know. I'm sure league Sunday will do it
As BennyCake said earlier, the ref got the stoppage time in stoppage time correct. 

There were two lengthy stoppages. The first was exactly 2 minutes. The second was for 90 seconds. So whatever you want to say about the ref, the 3.30 played in excess of the stated stoppage time, he got that spot on.

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