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Messages - OgraAnDun

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1
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: May 05, 2020, 08:32:12 PM »
Ffs lads thereís no point getting wound up over it, heís getting a kick out of people engaging with him

2
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: May 05, 2020, 12:39:37 PM »
Having a look at the increased death tolls per country and city, even with lockdowns, it seems fair to me to say that without pretty radical measures this has the potential to be an incredibly serious ďSpanish flu likeĒ disease. The excess mortality numbers for London for April 2020 (compared to a normal April) were worse than during the worst 4 week period of the Blitz, according to figures from the FT.


The fact that death rates only started jumping in line with registered Covid deaths a lot later than December I think debunks the myth that this was circulating in Europe freely in December. The number of deaths for pneumonia was actually below its 5 year average in the U.K. for the first few months of the year.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1257589774648565760?s=21

And what? That's an absolutely f**king stupid comparison. Can you compare the death rate on the titanic to Covid-19 please? Like f**k me.

If you canít really work out the significance of that then thereís no point debating with you... similar enough to most of your contributions to this board.

3
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: May 05, 2020, 12:15:27 PM »
Having a look at the increased death tolls per country and city, even with lockdowns, it seems fair to me to say that without pretty radical measures this has the potential to be an incredibly serious ďSpanish flu likeĒ disease. The excess mortality numbers for London for April 2020 (compared to a normal April) were worse than during the worst 4 week period of the Blitz, according to figures from the FT.


The fact that death rates only started jumping in line with registered Covid deaths a lot later than December I think debunks the myth that this was circulating in Europe freely in December. The number of deaths for pneumonia was actually below its 5 year average in the U.K. for the first few months of the year.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1257589774648565760?s=21

4
General discussion / Re: is now a good time to buy shares?
« on: May 02, 2020, 09:02:07 AM »
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.

The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall

One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.

The valuation of a share in the first chapter of a text book would say the NPV of all future cash flows. The rest of the book would then go on to explain why itís a lot more complicated than that... in very simple terms, it all comes down to supply and demand at the end of the day. People have to park their money somewhere and with interest rates so low, stocks are one of the only places to get a decent return.

5
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: April 26, 2020, 10:32:35 PM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254484489067167745?s=21


But sure itís a big deal over nothing according to Smurfy

6
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 27, 2020, 10:12:06 PM »
Canít go 2km from your house, canít visit family except in exceptional circumstances... seems like a lockdown to me compared to the north

7
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 27, 2020, 02:49:32 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

If 50% of the U.K. has been infected since January, why are there no clusters like this in the U.K.? Horrifying scenes.

9
Guinness stepping up to provide something - sanitizer maybe ?

I think brewdog actually have a santizer out since last week.

https://twitter.com/BrewDog/status/1240208876408123393?s=20

They also let all their Dublin staff go

Who Brewdog? Do they have staff in Dublin?

They have a bar down at Capital Dock.

10
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 25, 2020, 12:48:30 PM »
If the Oxford survey is correct, then surely hospitals would have been overrun in January or earlier, and we would have heard of a bad flu going round where young people were struggling to breathe without oxygen?

11
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 24, 2020, 10:02:58 PM »
Lidil are open, as is tesco and our local is closed but will deliver for orders over £50

if you are into wines, Portugal Vine yards is a great site. use them all the time, 12 bottles of Porta 6 (great wine) for 60 euro, delivered. but they have hundreds of choices
MR2 it's coming up for me 23 euro deliver? How you get the free delivery option? Am I doing something stupid? Wife looking recommendation's on the white as well! Cheers

16 either 15 or 16 quid for delivery send me a pm

Saw a link to an article in the FT there regarding a study done by Oxford University. Theyíre saying that 50% of the UK already have it or have had it. They also said it has been around in the uk since mid January. If thatís the case the lockdown wonít be as long as first thought. They also think only 1 in 1000 will require hospital care as a high percentage are getting very little symptoms.

Could someone copy and paste if possible? Thanks

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Itís not behind a paywall

12
GAA Discussion / Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« on: March 24, 2020, 11:27:39 AM »
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242226333012373505?s=21 - youíre free to look for it yourself, courtesy of the FT. And no, I donít believe the rate here is fictitious, but weíre an a much earlier stage than China and are a country who isnít known for massive secrecy and suppression of the truth.

Admittedly not quite Italy, but itís not far away.

13
GAA Discussion / Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« on: March 24, 2020, 10:07:06 AM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.


You need to understand the measures taken in the respective countries. The numbers make sense in that context. China failed initially to react and then brought in really tough, draconian measures. Sut everything down. The impact could be seen from outer space in terms of vast reduction in emissions. Built new hospitals. Unreal stuff that can't/won't be replicated in western countries. These measures worked and the outbreak is under control there for now. Italy effectively did nothing until it was too late to avoid major death and disruption. Even now, their lockdown isn't as severe as in China. Spain is closely following the same trajectory, as are several European countries, including the UK. I personally don't believe we're in much better position though we did close schools etc much earlier so may get some benefit from that.

I think a huge % of the population in Ireland are in denial of what's about to happen.

I comprehend that, and appreciate measures like building hospitals cannot be replicated in the west, but in Wuhan the first cases (of a random viral pneumonia) were discovered in December yet a lockdown wasnít imposed on Wuhan until the 23rd January, after millions had left and travelled to other cities around China (and the world). A reduction in NO2 has been seen in northern Italy also. While I fully comprehend that the west wonít be as effective in combating this as China, a 2.5% death rate in Wuhan compared to 10% in Italy (not sure what it is in Spain) just seems fictitious to me.

Ireland is on the same path as Italy in terms of daily increase in cases, if not deaths, from the graphs Iíve seen on the FT. I agree that most people here donít have a clue whatís coming down the path - they wouldnít be queuing like morons for fish and chips in Howth if they did.

14
GAA Discussion / Re: GAA Response to Coronavirus
« on: March 24, 2020, 07:03:22 AM »
Iím highly suspicious of Chinaís numbers too, with Italy experiencing a mortality rate of around 10% and with no end in sight. However, China is the engine of the world economy and without its strong growth (and demand for raw materials), the global economy would stagnate - Iím not sure which western democracy, with the exception of the clown in the White House and some of his advisors, would actually relish an economically struggling China. Itís a brilliant and growing export market for western goods also.

15
General discussion / Re: China Coronavirus
« on: March 23, 2020, 09:22:47 PM »
Iím delighted that the 6 are under lockdown, it appears that the further from the border you go the less seriously this is taken (similar to attitudes over the water). Maybe this will make people cop on.

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