Messages

I'm in Spain at the moment though a long way from Catalunya. But my wife is from Girona and as long as I've known her the Catalan independence movement went from a small fringe to what it is today because of ham fisted actions coming out of Madrid particularly when Rajoy got into power. If they let them have a referendum years ago it would have lost like in Scotland and none of this would have happened. Also giving a few small gestures to the autonomy of Catalunya would have gone a long way but it seems that's beyond PP.

So many Catalans I know went from not wanting independence to slowly going for it and events this week have increased that flow dramatically. Independent Catalunya is guaranteed at this stage. Rajoy is the best thing to happen to the independence movement it couldn't have happened without him and to be honest they should build a monument to him in Placa de Cataluña after this.

Ham fisted is right but not sure what choice Rajoy had in this. If he allows the vote to go ahead, with only one side campaigning, there is a guaranteed "yes" vote, at which point they had promised to proclaim independence with 48 hours.

Once that was done, what does he do? Send in the army rather than the police? I honestly think it was a damned if you do , damned if you don't situation for him (that he walked himself into over the years as you point out)

Unfortunately situation is now one of extreme polarization. If you aren't with those on the side of independence you are automatically against them and a fascist. The politicians there played their hand well but that doesn't stop them being a bunch of conniving corrupt, self-interested gobshites. You can be sure they won't be the ones suffering from an independent Cataluña but there will be plenty that will.

perhaps if he allowed the vote to go ahead the no campaign would have mobilised its voters?

He couldn't let it go ahead even if he wanted to due to the constitution. Also bear in mind that of the other major political parties on a national level, only Podemos supported the right to vote. If he had walked back I don't think he could have survived.

That said, as I mentioned, the situation is at least in part of his own making. He probably much earlier should have made moves to get cross party agreement for a referendum some time hence which would allow both sides to run organised campaigns, as opposed to Puidgemont et al. saying, "we're doing it now, whether you like it or not".

I'm in Spain at the moment though a long way from Catalunya. But my wife is from Girona and as long as I've known her the Catalan independence movement went from a small fringe to what it is today because of ham fisted actions coming out of Madrid particularly when Rajoy got into power. If they let them have a referendum years ago it would have lost like in Scotland and none of this would have happened. Also giving a few small gestures to the autonomy of Catalunya would have gone a long way but it seems that's beyond PP.

So many Catalans I know went from not wanting independence to slowly going for it and events this week have increased that flow dramatically. Independent Catalunya is guaranteed at this stage. Rajoy is the best thing to happen to the independence movement it couldn't have happened without him and to be honest they should build a monument to him in Placa de Cataluña after this.

Ham fisted is right but not sure what choice Rajoy had in this. If he allows the vote to go ahead, with only one side campaigning, there is a guaranteed "yes" vote, at which point they had promised to proclaim independence with 48 hours.

Once that was done, what does he do? Send in the army rather than the police? I honestly think it was a damned if you do , damned if you don't situation for him (that he walked himself into over the years as you point out)

Unfortunately situation is now one of extreme polarization. If you aren't with those on the side of independence you are automatically against them and a fascist. The politicians there played their hand well but that doesn't stop them being a bunch of conniving corrupt, self-interested gobshites. You can be sure they won't be the ones suffering from an independent Cataluña but there will be plenty that will.

Two leading UK betting company odds  from oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/catalonia-referendum/winner/bet-history/yes-to-independence

August 27   -   2/5  yes vote

Sept 21    -     1/16 yes vote

So much for the confidence in the alleged dwindling yes vote.

Did I read your original source wrong or are you now refuting my post with this new poll source? As Gallsman says, the likelihood of a yes vote is going to be very high if those who would vote no, don't vote.

It's not about you, I couldn't care less about what's going through your head or others for that matter.
It's just my habit to look for intelligent neutral sources for more accurate information.

I don't think it's about me for a second and I'm all for everyone reading from all sides. What I'm pointing out is that the numbers you're posting don't stack up. Ideally people would read and understand. It is all too easy for people from the outside looking in to think , "oh the poor oppressed Catalans" and I think particularly those of us who grew up in the North are almost predisposed to think that way.

Cataluña's biggest complaint is that they pay more in taxes than they get back. Supposedly 16bn according to Junqueras. I haven't seen anyone dispute that they contribute more but the pieces I have read put the figure closer to €1.5bn. This is same as Farage's £350mn quid a week lies for the NHS.

Now guess what. Madrid also contributes more and on a very similar level to Cataluña. Spain operates a progressive tax system which means that richer people pay more, and I believe that is the way it should be. The logical extension of this is that wealthier areas will pay more and be net contributors. Junqueras argument is like a millionaire saying he is loaded but shouldn't be means tested for any social aid etc.

There are several studies showing that Cataluña is far from the worst affected autonomous community in this regard, with at least Valencia and Murcia worse off.

Two leading UK betting company odds  from oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/catalonia-referendum/winner/bet-history/yes-to-independence

August 27   -   2/5  yes vote

Sept 21    -     1/16 yes vote

So much for the confidence in the alleged dwindling yes vote.

Did I read your original source wrong or are you now refuting my post with this new poll source? As Gallsman says, the likelihood of a yes vote is going to be very high if those who would vote no, don't vote.

Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.

50+1 is stupid. Just look at Brexit

What's the required majority figure deemed enough to carry a border poll?  50.01% v49.99%?
I doubt if such a close race will come to pass in the  Catalan referendum
There is an overwhelming political and popular mandate for holding the independence  referendum and a confident prediction of a resounding yes vote.

Here's one of the many polls but one based on the intentions of  'definite' voters
http://www.ara.cat/politica/Participacio-del-mes-avantatge_0_1871212940.html

Kosovo republic still hasn't received  full intl recognition yet, though it has acquired full football intl status.

Overwhelming political mandate? They basically illegally forced through legislation to allow the referendum. Although the Catalan parliament had majority of seats in favour of independence (52 to 48, I think it was, hardly overwhelming), this did not represent a majority of the popular vote

Pro-sovereignty coalition has a majority of 20 or so in the Catalan parliament
The popular mandate for holding a referendum was overwhelming in favour of, some 75%  and that still continues.
Latest polls, despite the misleading headlines  and blatant spin in this article from El Pais, the polls still indicate an overwhelming yes vote
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/07/21/inenglish/1500633835_182589.html
"67.5% of people polled by the CEO said they will vote in the October 1 referendum if it goes ahead, with 62.4% of this group saying they would vote yes and 37.6% saying they would vote no"

The tragedy is that the "no" vote will be split between those not voting as don't want to legitimise the referendum and those that vote no, meaning there could easily be this unilateral declaration of independence after a yes vote despite the participation rates being extremely low.

You have some crystal ball there   Do you have any evidence?
The CEO opinion poll indicates that  68% of those polled, will vote.

For holding a referendum yes, a legal one, as pointed out by Gallsman. It isn't just a question of semantics.
Yes as I mentioned, they won a majority of seats in the 2015 election. They did not win a majority of the votes. If it was Norn Iron in that case you would find many saying it was gerrymandering.

Regarding your poll, my math not as good as it used be and haven't gone into the article but not sure a crystal ball is needed. Unless I am reading something wrong, your supporting evidence actually backs up my assertion.

i) 67.5% is is not a high participation rate for a referendum on independence

ii) You can take it as given that virtually everybody inclined to vote yes would vote. By your poll, that means 0.62*0.67 = 42% would vote yes. Far from a majority, never mind an overwhelming majority

iii) If 38% of those voting are voting no (26% of the population), and the 32% of the population not voting, vote no (because those voting yes will vote), I would say that is pretty much the "no" vote being split.

Those no voters refusing to turn up will have themselves to blame in those circumstances, as they've been clear from the start that Sí means Sí regardless of turnout.

That is one way of looking at it. Another is that the people who started disregarding due democratic process were the independentistas and the "referendum" has already been ruled illegal. In my view they are in no way deserving of sympathy.

Even if central government response has appeared heavy handed, this is exactly what independentistas wanted.

I just can't get over the surge in support for independence since "la crisis". To me it just smacks of callous economic opportunism and self-interest, wrapped up in this "different language and culture" bollocks. Far from the only country with more than one language, and the Catalan culture is more similar to culture in rest of Spain than it is to anywhere else, even if there are some differences.

Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.

50+1 is stupid. Just look at Brexit

What's the required majority figure deemed enough to carry a border poll?  50.01% v49.99%?
I doubt if such a close race will come to pass in the  Catalan referendum
There is an overwhelming political and popular mandate for holding the independence  referendum and a confident prediction of a resounding yes vote.

Here's one of the many polls but one based on the intentions of  'definite' voters
http://www.ara.cat/politica/Participacio-del-mes-avantatge_0_1871212940.html

Kosovo republic still hasn't received  full intl recognition yet, though it has acquired full football intl status.

Overwhelming political mandate? They basically illegally forced through legislation to allow the referendum. Although the Catalan parliament had majority of seats in favour of independence (52 to 48, I think it was, hardly overwhelming), this did not represent a majority of the popular vote

The tragedy is that the "no" vote will be split between those not voting as don't want to legitimise the referendum and those that vote no, meaning there could easily be this unilateral declaration of independence after a yes vote despite the participation rates being extremely low.

Not seen it yet but Puigdemont was apparently ripped to shreds by a Catalan journalist on his weekly Sunday evening show. Twitter saying the guy has done more damage to the independence movement in 1hr than the Government in 6 years.

Journalist is normally very good so looking forward to this immensely! Puigdemont is about as mediocre as they come. Some of those in Storming would make him look bad...

Presumably if Catalonia goes the Basques will be next?

No. Completely different independence question altogether.

Why? If Cataluña goes, the chances of basques going increases exponentially I would think

The Basques get to keep their tax receipts and are generally content with being a highly autonomous region. If you go up into the mountains it's a different story but in the major towns and cities (along with pretty much all of Álava).

I'm aware (i'm married to a Basque) but the precedent set would still increase chances significantly. Wouldn't happen overnight but would happen before any other region, so I'd argue the answer to St Galls question would be "Yes, if anyone else leaves after Cataluña, the Basques would almost certainly be next"

Presumably if Catalonia goes the Basques will be next?

No. Completely different independence question altogether.

Why? If Cataluña goes, the chances of basques going increases exponentially I would think

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_three_myths_about_catalonias_independence_movement

Excellent article that anyone looking from the outside in would do well to read. In my view Cataluña has been hijacked by a handful of manipulative, populist politicians. Am no fan of Rajoy's but the Spanish constitution gives him no option but to do all he can to defend unity. The people riding roughshod over democratic process are guys like Puidgemont and Juncosa.

Eamonn when there was civil war on the streets, as a Catholic nationalist, I would have said 50%+1 fine. The argument can hardly be made that we are second class citizens now and a 50%+1 vote would see innocent Catholics die by the dozens in fairly short order I would think, so no, I wouldn't be in favour of it.

Maybe 2/3 is too much but Cataluña overwhelmingly supported reform of the constitution in 77. Look at the historic opinion polls over last 10-15 years (see the economist this week), and to me it is clear this is about economics more than anything else.

Czechoslovakia split in two so peacefully that many people didn't even notice. If Spain were to let go of its regions then I hope it does so peacefully, but right now the way the Spanish government is handling this looks a bit ominous. There are powerful forces they're dealing with. They'd be well advised to tread carefully.

Funny I was having conversation on Cataluña today and the fella mentioned Czechoslovakia breakup (he was living in Bratislava for 4-5 years up until recently).

While pretty peaceful, apparently cross border trade froze almost to a standstill. Not sure why exactly but a similar outcome here would obviously be disastrous

Gallsman why ask peoples opinion on it then criticise. Get off the high horse pal.

Exactly.

Seamus, you are normally sensible but Gallsman is right.

Madrid's reaction has been unbelievably stupid in my view. They should allow a referendum with 2/3 majority required for independence. There wouldn't be a hope of that and issue could be put to bed. Unfortunately 50%+1 doesn't cut it.

While there has long been a longing among a fair part of the population for independence, Cataluña has never been independent. It's economic prosperity has also been built on the backbone of massive immigration from the rest of Spain, particularly from the 50s-70s.

Frankly I find it all very self interested and primarily based on financial interests i.e. They don't want to support those "lazy Andalusian" any more. Despite what I said above. It is no coincidence this has fired up not so long after La Crisis.

The leaders of the independence movement are a deceitful shower of c*nts, in the same way as the Brexit leadership. These guys have been lining their pockets for years in the same way politicians in the rest of the country have. Same lies about what a brave new economic world they will be in, yet Cataluña apparently exports more to Aragon than to whole of France.

And all this crap about remaining part of the EU. The EU has been very clear that they won't be. Probably a whole other debate about whether that is fair or not but the misinformation and spin is disheartening and dishonest.

[What is your problem? If you don't like the thread, just walk away, move on, nothing to see.]

Shocker!! Politicians rips the arse out of tax payers !! Thread Started by a teacher.... who really gives a feck?? Cause we'll keep on voting them in! maybe if we paid them 30 grand a year and no expenses we might get some decent people in

1.  Not a teacher

2. What is your problem? If you don't like the thread, just walk away, move on, nothing to see.

The man has definitely got a problem.  On numerous threads you'll find him commenting for no other reason other than to berate others for commenting.  It's weird.

Not commenting on how stupid something is would be more of a disservice than not doing it.

Discussion. Not echo chamber. Remember that.

Not much sense being made here.

Far from a Syferus fan, but strikes me you are being willfully ignorant there Franko. Very easy to understand and something I agree with.

Milltown as for your reference to nurses and vocation, I've had more experience across many different hospitals than most people will have in their lifetime, and very few come across as having a real vocation for the job. The lack of empathy displayed by most of the health professionals I have come across really shocked me, because I had previously thought of it as a job with a vocation but personal experience tells me otherwise.

Maybe that says more about you than them.

Not sure I follow you Charlie, care to explain?. I'm not saying there aren't people with a vocation for it, just saying there are a hell of a lot for whom it is not a vocation. Small sample size granted, but in my experience it is a clear minority who appear to have the vocation.

There is no excuse obviously for ever treating patients without anything but respect and empathy. But it should be returned. Im not sure if your from north or south. Up here the services are understaffed underfunded which leads to no breaks unpaid extra hours etc. This can leave some appearing that it's no longer a vocation but it shouldn't happen  regardless. Basically like is met with like. I get on the defensive when I hear negative comments about the service. I am sorry I made that remark to you.

No worries.

Am actually Spain based but doubt there is much difference. I agree that health workers will no doubt have to put up with a lot of shit at times, but there is no excuse for some behaviour. My 3 year old daughter has severe cerebral palsy as a result of negligence (proven) during birth, which was then subject to an attempted cover up by staff involved. They never even got a rap on the knuckles and we have yet to receive an apology, but that's a different story.

You'd think that there would be a bit of empathy for the family with regards to her rehab but we have been fucked around time and again. I understand that there are good people and good professionals working in public hospitals,it is just unfortunate there are not enough of them. I'd honestly love to know what sort of performance reviews are done because a good proportion of them should be out on their ear.

Is it a question of underfunding and understaffing? You'd have to imagine it is a contributing factor but my impression is that it is thrown out as a catch all excuse a lot of the time. Strong empathy need to be a fundamental part of the identikit health professional

Would you 2 like to get a room?

I'll pass thanks, but you might want to consider whether that is an indication of your own underlying tendencies.