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Messages - Lone Shark

#46
GAA Discussion / Re: Super 8s
April 02, 2017, 01:57:18 AM
I see some Meath heads are a bit peeved at the team that Kildare have picked for this weekend's game in Galway. A match that would be very competitive if both sides were at full strength, now sees Paddy Power lay odds of 1/14 Galway and 9/1 Kildare, with an 8 point handicap.

If Meath are annoyed now, imagine if this happened in the championship, at the quarter final stages? I cannot get my head around why no-one is considering the absolute sh1tstorm that will be unleashed when this finally happens.

Moreover, has anybody outlined what will happen in the event of a walkover in a game like that?

Think logically for a moment, and imagine I'm the Dublin manager, in a super eight group featuring the Dubs, Kerry, provincial winners, and we'll say Cavan and Kildare for the sake of argument. The first four results are:

Dublin beat Cavan in Breffni
Kildare and Kerry draw in Newbridge

Kildare beat Cavan in Croke Park
Dublin beat Kerry in Croke Park

Final round is coming up, and Kerry will almost certainly beat Cavan in Killarney- but if Dublin don't beat Kildare, Kerry wwill be knocked out regardless- and with all due respect to Kildare, there's only one of those teams that represents a potential threat to Dublin in an All Ireland final.

Moreover, why in the name of God would I risk injuries in that game? Surely the logical thing to do for both reasons is to either concede a walkover, or else give a full game to the players in my squad that are effectively numbers 21-35. Are we ready for the riots that would ensue when that happens?
#47
Soccer teams used to play with the same amount of attackers as defenders too - but you'd be a long time waiting for that to come back.


The unfortunate thing about the standard modern, tactical approach is this - it beats the traditional style hands down, every time. Of course I'm not saying that Waterford playing defensive football will beat Kerry playing 6-2-6, but if twoteams of reasonably equal ability meet, then the fall-back-and-counter-attack side will always prevail. Even if you look at things like short kickouts - if the keeper is any way accurate with his restarts and the opposition don't pull off a high press with lots of honesty and energy, you'll


I agree that the rule makers could change things very easily, but we have a tendency in the GAA to only make reactive changes, hence things like the black card, which has been something between a qualified success and a complete failure. What we need to do is decide what way we want the game to look, and to then find ways to encourage that, or to discourage the aspects we don't like. Personally I believe that the time for 13 a side is well upon us, but I'd also be conscious of the fact that no matter what way you do things, you're going to find it very hard to encourage teams to go back to the days of long balls into a contest between two or more players.
#48
Quote from: GalwayBayBoy on March 25, 2017, 03:22:09 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on March 25, 2017, 01:34:15 AM
Quote from: GalwayBayBoy on March 23, 2017, 10:36:57 PM
Galway team to play Mayo in the Connacht U-21 semi-final on Saturday

1. Ronán Ó Beoláin (Mícheál Breathnach)
2. Liam Kelly (An Spidéal)
3. Séan Andy Ó Ceallaigh (Naomh Anna, Leitir Móir)
4. Rory Greene (Killannin)
5. Kieran Molloy (Corofin)
6. Dylan McHugh (Corofin)
7. Cillian McDaid (Monivea-Abbey)
8. Peter Cooke (Maigh Cuilinn)
9. Colm Ó Braonain (Oileáin Árann)
10. Antaine Ó Laoi (An Spidéal)
11. Micheal Daly - Capt. (Mountbellew/Moylough)
12. Colin Brady (Corofin)
13. Robert Finnerty (Salthill/Knocknacarra)
14. Paul Mannion (Kilconly)
15. Dessie Conneely (Maigh Cuilinn)

A serious amount of west Galway in that team. Is this a one off, or is this a trend that's likely to continue for a few years? I remember covering their minors against Laois last year and it was something similar.

Pretty much been a common trend over the last 5 or more years I'd say. Lot more players coming through the west board clubs compared to the past. 9 on this team which would be unusually high but there's been a definite swing away from the north. At underage at least.

Of course though not all west clubs are Gaeltacht clubs. The city clubs (and environs) play in the west board so it's often Gaeltacht v Galway city clubs.

Don't I know - played a small handful of games for Fr Griffins/Éire Óg a few years ago when I was living in the city, well aware of the regular treks out to the sticks that come with the territory there!
#49
Quote from: GalwayBayBoy on March 23, 2017, 10:36:57 PM
Galway team to play Mayo in the Connacht U-21 semi-final on Saturday

1. Ronán Ó Beoláin (Mícheál Breathnach)
2. Liam Kelly (An Spidéal)
3. Séan Andy Ó Ceallaigh (Naomh Anna, Leitir Móir)
4. Rory Greene (Killannin)
5. Kieran Molloy (Corofin)
6. Dylan McHugh (Corofin)
7. Cillian McDaid (Monivea-Abbey)
8. Peter Cooke (Maigh Cuilinn)
9. Colm Ó Braonain (Oileáin Árann)
10. Antaine Ó Laoi (An Spidéal)
11. Micheal Daly - Capt. (Mountbellew/Moylough)
12. Colin Brady (Corofin)
13. Robert Finnerty (Salthill/Knocknacarra)
14. Paul Mannion (Kilconly)
15. Dessie Conneely (Maigh Cuilinn)

A serious amount of west Galway in that team. Is this a one off, or is this a trend that's likely to continue for a few years? I remember covering their minors against Laois last year and it was something similar.
#50
Quote from: Esmarelda on January 09, 2017, 08:33:49 AM
Lone Shark, while my original point on the split still stands, what an 8, 12, 12 split does is push better teams down to "Junior" making the competition irrelevant for the likes of London, Carlow, Wicklow etc.

Again, for whom are we trying to change the structure?

This is kind of my key point - I'm not entirely sure who wants a change of any type, other than pundits from leading counties who'd like to spend more time watching Kerry vs Dublin and a lot less time watching Derry vs Antrim, or armchair supporters who want the same.

Quote from: seafoid on January 09, 2017, 07:09:20 AM
What about 98? Galway hadn't won Connacht since 95. A Connacht team hadn't won since 66. Were Galway also top 6?

It was a very lopsided draw that year which might have skewed the betting a little, however I'll agree that there is no way that Galway would have been in the top six counties by ranking at the start of the year. I'm not sure that one exception in 50 odd years disproves my point though.

Quote from: Fuzzman on January 09, 2017, 01:14:53 PM
Sometimes the answer is staring us in the face.
We already have 4 divisions which in fairness usually group teams of a similar level together, yes?
How many times do we see quarterfinals being quite one sided? We rarely see the top 8 teams in the country play each other in championship competitive matches and for me that's what I would like to see each year and then the best 4.

So we play the league games as usual, then come June we play the provincial championships and then come August we play the All Ireland series where we draw the quarterfinals from Div 1 only.
That way we will see the top 8 teams in the country play off against each other fairly, with no bias to Kerry or Dublin getting to that quarterfinal stage easier than anyone else.

Secondly, the provincial titles remain and could be a realistic chance for some of the teams from outside Div 1 to win a significant title.
It would in turn give the leagues a lot more meaning and motivate teams to try to get to Div 1 so they can win Sam.
24 counties would know in advance they won't be in the AI series so they can plan their championships much better.

Once more with feeling - if the provincial championships are not an integral part of the All Ireland series and the first choice route to the All Ireland quarter finals for the big teams, they won't "remain" in any meaningful sense of the word - they will "remain" in the same way that the Munster Senior Cup will "remain" as a target for Garryowen and Young Munster in club rugby. The competition will exist, but it will be irrevocably cheapened, and by definition, if it means nothing to Mayo/Dublin/Kerry, it can't mean as much to Leitrim/Longford/Limerick.
#51
Quote from: armaghniac on January 07, 2017, 01:13:31 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on January 07, 2017, 12:30:54 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 06, 2017, 11:26:58 PM
Please don't presume to read my mind thanks very much. Maybe some of us are thinking what's best for Gaelic football.Just make your points for/against things without impugning the motives of posters here. How dare you!!
By the time Senior/Inter/Junior comes around we will be lucky (Demographics etc) to make the Junior grade.
In 25 years time there will be 1.5m people in Dublin and probably 800k in Kildare/Meath/Wicklow.
Are present Administrative structures and Competition structures suitable for this forthcoming lopsided population?

Okay, I'll bite. For footballing reasons, why is 12/12/8 superior to 8/12/12, when ostensibly, the latter would appear to create more competitive competitions for all? Realistically, outside of KY/TYR/MO/DL and at a real, real push, Cork & Galway, there is no-one else that would be shorter than 10/1 to beat Dublin in a one off game. Certainly it'd probably be a more lopsided fixture than Leitrim/Waterford/Antrim against Armagh or Clare, who'd be the type of teams that would be inter under 12/12/8 but junior under 8/8/12.

It isn't so long ago that Armagh beat Leitrim by a cricket score in Pairc Sean.

I remember - I was covering the game, and I got penalty points on the way into the match. The reason I know that it was the summer of 2013 is that those points only finally went off my license a few months ago!

Two things here:

(1) Armagh in 2013 were well ahead of Armagh 2016/2017.
(2) There could be cricket scores at any level, but Dublin beating teams ranked 9-12 by large margins is far more common that teams ranked around 20 giving out hidings to the Leitrims and Waterfords of this world.
#52
Quote from: seafoid on January 07, 2017, 12:09:51 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 07, 2017, 11:37:10 AM
Quote from: seafoid on January 07, 2017, 09:00:48 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on January 07, 2017, 03:21:05 AM
I am thinking long term. In the long term, the last time the Sam Maguire was won by any county that would have been deemed to be outside the top 6 at the start of that particular year would have been back in the early 1990's, when there was great parity and anyone of four or five Ulster Counties would have been capable, alongside Dublin, Kerry, Cork, and even Mayo (at a push). Before that, you probably have to go back to Offaly in 1971. Even then, all of those counties would have been comfortably inside the top ten in May of the relevant years.

Counties ranked 10/11/12 at the start of the year don't win the big prize, ever. They just don't do it. They come close occasionally (Down 2010, Galway 1983 come to mind) but they don't win.
What about Armagh in 2002 ? They were fairly mediocre in 2001
They ran Galway to a point in 2001 and had won Ulster in 1999 and 2000 if my memory serves me right.
in 2001 Ros were Connacht champions. Kerry and Meath and the Dubs were strong as were Galway and Derry. That is 6.

I was working in PP at the time. Armagh were fifth in the betting at the start of the year, behind Kerry, Meath, Dublin and Galway. Admittedly there wasn't a lot between them and some of the others behind them, including Tyrone, Derry, Roscommon and Offaly, but they were perceived as a slight cut above that four all the same.
#53
I am thinking long term. In the long term, the last time the Sam Maguire was won by any county that would have been deemed to be outside the top 6 at the start of that particular year would have been back in the early 1990's, when there was great parity and anyone of four or five Ulster Counties would have been capable, alongside Dublin, Kerry, Cork, and even Mayo (at a push). Before that, you probably have to go back to Offaly in 1971. Even then, all of those counties would have been comfortably inside the top ten in May of the relevant years.

Counties ranked 10/11/12 at the start of the year don't win the big prize, ever. They just don't do it. They come close occasionally (Down 2010, Galway 1983 come to mind) but they don't win. 
#54
Quote from: Rossfan on January 06, 2017, 11:26:58 PM
Please don't presume to read my mind thanks very much. Maybe some of us are thinking what's best for Gaelic football.Just make your points for/against things without impugning the motives of posters here. How dare you!!
By the time Senior/Inter/Junior comes around we will be lucky (Demographics etc) to make the Junior grade.
In 25 years time there will be 1.5m people in Dublin and probably 800k in Kildare/Meath/Wicklow.
Are present Administrative structures and Competition structures suitable for this forthcoming lopsided population?

Okay, I'll bite. For footballing reasons, why is 12/12/8 superior to 8/12/12, when ostensibly, the latter would appear to create more competitive competitions for all? Realistically, outside of KY/TYR/MO/DL and at a real, real push, Cork & Galway, there is no-one else that would be shorter than 10/1 to beat Dublin in a one off game. Certainly it'd probably be a more lopsided fixture than Leitrim/Waterford/Antrim against Armagh or Clare, who'd be the type of teams that would be inter under 12/12/8 but junior under 8/8/12.
#55
Quote from: Zulu on January 06, 2017, 05:49:54 PM
If the provincials need to be linked to the All Ireland to retain interest then it's logical to suggest they have no intrinsic value themselves. Play them as stand alone competitions if you like but I can't see how anyone can know the problems we have (club and county level) and still argue for the provincials as a core element of the championship.

Yes and no on this. The provincials need to be linked to the All Ireland in order for Dublin, Kerry and Mayo to retain an interest, and to a lesser extent Cork, Tyrone, Donegal etc. The division three and division four counties don't need the provincials to be linked to the All Ireland at all, but they do need to know that a provincial title still has value, and that it won't be diminished as something that has fractionally more prestige than the O'Byrne Cup. Galway were delighted to win their provincial title this year, but they were delighted because their win over Mayo was a genuine one, not a preseason style game.

I promise you, counties like Offaly still dream of Leinster titles, and that motivates them to go through all the hardship. Of course there is a massive gap to be bridged with Dublin (F) and Kilkenny (H) at the top of the tree, but they want to take that chance. Would they still be as motivated if they knew that Dublin and Kilkenny weren't going to be focused on winning it? Not at all.

Quote from: Rossfan on January 06, 2017, 07:29:00 PM
Quote from: lenny on January 06, 2017, 06:35:13 PM


I presume we'd have roughly the same number in each so say eleven counties

I would favour 8 senior, 12 intermediate and 12 junior. There are realistically only 7 or 8 teams at the top level. That would leave a good championship at each grade with every team capable of winning at their level.

12, 12 and 8.

In the space of just 13 characters, Rossfan has summed up the attitude to the lower tier competitions perfectly. Everyone thinks that they're a great idea FOR OTHER COUNTIES - but not for them. Right now, Roscommon are a division one county on 2016 league form, and a D2/D3 county on championship form. Overall, if it was 12 teams, they'd be in the top tier certainly, but at 8, it'd be touch and go - so a Roscommon fan thinks it should be 12.

I'm betting that if you asked someone from Tyrone or Donegal, they'd say eight in the top tier. Somebody from Meath or Kildare would say 16. Everyone would draw the line just underneath themselves.

This brings me back to my previous point - when players and officials from counties that would actually have to play in these competitions call for them, I'll respect them - but I haven't seen one instance of that yet, while the body of players as a whole (through the GPA) made it clear that they didn't want such a structure at all. Yet everyone says that it's these counties that we're doing this for.

Colour me sceptical.
#56
Quote from: Zulu on January 06, 2017, 04:17:46 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on January 06, 2017, 03:51:07 PM
Quote from: Jinxy on January 06, 2017, 02:28:30 PM
......
Bear in mind there will still be a provincial championship where they get to play the likes of Galway or Mayo.

This is the thing though - there will be a championship, but it won't matter to Mayo and Galway, and consequently, when the day comes that the upset happens, it won't mean as much - and Leitrim people will know that. It'll be feck all different to beating them in the FBD league. Right now, the provincial championships are part of the main event, the All Ireland series. If you break that link, it's a matter of time bfore they become preseason efforts that don't matter - just the same as what happened with the provincial cups in rugby and soccer.

So you want to keep the provincials even though you accept as stand alone competitions they aren't valued by the bigger teams? I'd get rid of the provincials tomorrow but I can see the argument for retaining them as a more realistic goal for the likes of Tipp, Monaghan, Meath etc. However, they are the biggest problem in the season as they are fundamentally 4 uneven groups of teams with wildly different standards. Keep them if you like but to have them central to the championship structure means we will never have a workable format.

They're dying anyway as the big teams will take or leave them, the next level would live one or two but then want to go to the next level and the rest will only win one once in a blue moon, if even that.

No, I don't accept that at all. Winning a provincial title is a big deal for 90% of the counties out there, and even for the other three or four, the games are still taken seriously because it's the easiest route through the All Ireland series. Mayo might have reached the All Ireland final this year but they were clearly vulnerable when they played Fermanagh back in early July, and could easily have been booted out if they got a tougher, away draw and didn't raise their game a bit. Provincial games are full blooded occasions now, and that's as it should be - but that won't last if you make them stand alone competitions.
#57
Quote from: Jinxy on January 06, 2017, 02:28:30 PM
......
Bear in mind there will still be a provincial championship where they get to play the likes of Galway or Mayo.

This is the thing though - there will be a championship, but it won't matter to Mayo and Galway, and consequently, when the day comes that the upset happens, it won't mean as much - and Leitrim people will know that. It'll be feck all different to beating them in the FBD league. Right now, the provincial championships are part of the main event, the All Ireland series. If you break that link, it's a matter of time bfore they become preseason efforts that don't matter - just the same as what happened with the provincial cups in rugby and soccer.
#58
Quote from: Rossfan on January 05, 2017, 02:12:38 PM
The looks of sheer unbridled joy on the faces of the Roscommon Rackard winning squad in the post match photo in 2015 shows what winning a lower tier All Ireland meant.
Very few might have gone to see them but like the Junior and Inter Club AIs that didn't diminish their delight.
As for the theory of the 35k break even crowd in Croker - that was
A - when they were paying off the debt and
B - arrived at by dividing the annual cost of running Croker by the number of fixtures.

But at the end of the day the present system isn't exactly drawing them in with football attendances taking a huge drop.

A couple of key differences here. Firstly, Roscommon weren't pulled from the race for the Liam McCarthy against their will to play the Nicky Rackard Cup, and the players wanted a competition of this nature since they effectively had nothing.

Secondly, and with all due respect to lads like Micheál Kelly that is as good a hurler as you'll see, there is no circumstance possible that will see Roscommon beating a KK/Tipp/Cork/LK/Clare/Waterford/Galway in the next 50 years. Regardless of how much any of those counties decline, or how much Roscommon improve, it's never going to happen. Bridging that gap in football is extremely difficult, but you can dream, and nearly every county in Ireland has experienced one football result in the last 30 years that proves that the dream can come true.

Personally I've no issue with the crowds element, since I don't believe that you need to have a big audience to justify holding a competition - however I do have a problem with counties being sold a pup and being told that their key "intermediate" games will be held in front of crowds of 30k plus, when they clearly won't.

One again, if players from the lower division counties come out and say they want this, it should be supported - but the idea that it should be railroaded through against their wishes is nonsense.
#59
Quote from: joemamas on January 05, 2017, 01:32:38 PM
Point taken, but what if apathy does continue, where in the next five to ten years due to the demands of IC football, and the remote possibility of success leads to more and more potential county players in div 3 and div 4 (using this for illustrative purposes only) saying shag it, just not worth it.

Would it not be better to put a potential longer-term solution into place, where over a ten year period, the so called weaker counties, play in a separate championship, where the semi-finals and finals are played in croke park and the winners move into Q final. In addition, somebody in GAA marketing takes their finger out and promotes the you know what out of those semi and finals to ensure they are played before a meaningful crowd.

Several aspects here. Firstly, what you're doing is saying to half the intercounty players of the country that even though you've said you don't want this, we anticipate what you're going to do in ten years time, we know that better than you, and we've decided what you really want, even if you don't know it yet.

As I've said before, if a steady stream of players start going on the record and saying that they are not interested in playing because the competitions they enter are unwinnable, to the point that it can be reasonably assumed that this is the majority view, I will completely change my tune. Until that happens, I'll be steadfast in my view that a second or third tier championship will be a terrible idea.

And please, no more "marketing" nonsense. Every sporting fixture and every sporting body, male and female, thinks that the reason feck all people come in the door is a lack of marketing. We get it from the LGFA, from the League of Ireland, from club rugby, and from the National League of the GAA as well at times. Worst of all is the interprovincials. We had two weeks when they were the only GAA story in town and they got loads of coverage. Less than 100 people showed up at games, and still there were shills coming out saying that a lack of marketing was the problem. Ultimately if the public decide that they don't like something, they won't go.

Quote from: joemamas on January 05, 2017, 01:32:38 PM
If I can sit in front of a key board in my office and in 15 mins come up with six quick ways to boost attendance at this kind of a fixture, surely to God, somebody who is being paid full time by the GAA can do similar, unless they are totally inept. The annual Q/finals attendance debacle on August bank holiday readily comes to mind on this.

I'm sorry, but no. I'd love to hear your six things, and I'll read with an open mind when you list them, but what you are talking about is the Christy Ring Cup of football, and again I say that if the public don't care, you won't be able to make them care. More Offaly people attended the county senior hurling final between St Rynaghs and Birr than attended all three of our intercounty games in the round robin series against Carlow, Westmeath and Laois, COMBINED. Second tier just doesn't do it for folks.


Quote from: joemamas on January 05, 2017, 01:32:38 PM
Population is a very valid argument, and not to digress, but is the parential rule still not in place, where young fellas can play for county of parents. Not ideal, but when you hear of the numbers of players showing up for u10 and u12 training and coaching in Dublin and other cities, a lot of potential inter county footballers are flying under the radar. Logistically difficult, I know.

This rule still is in place but the one thing that continues to fuel players, teams, clubs and counties across the land is passion, and pride of place. I have no issue whatsoever with a young player who has an interest in Offaly GAA and who has a genuine connection with the county lining out in the tricolour, regardless of where he sleeps at night. However a player that decides that playing for Dublin is out of reach and so he'll take advantage of his parentage just for expediency is another matter. I've no doubt that there are lots of good footballers in Dublin who would be better players than the outliers in Pat Flanagan's current panel, but the greater good will not be served by the wholehearted lad from the locality losing out to the fella that never watched a club game in the county up until he decided that he'd like to wear the county colours as a fall back. I had a few chats with John Coughlan when he made the switch a few years ago and he was a nice lad who had a genuine interest, but even then it just didn't work out for him. Actually come to think of it, are there any success stories from this rule anywhere out there?
#60
Quote from: Rossfan on January 05, 2017, 12:11:11 PM
And of course the present system has Leitrim and Carlow in great shape.
Anyway in my earlier piece I said to leave everyone compete in their Provincials so Laythrum can get 3 wins over Roscommon every 50 years and Antrim can get their annual tanking reported on in the Irish News.
3 levels of short sharp focused inter Co All Ireland Championships is so logical only the LGFA would come up with it.
Or every Co Board in Ireland for Club competitions.
As I said earlier I won't live to see it though.

The system is not responsible for Leitrim and Carlow being where they are. The fact that they have less than 40,000 of a population each has them where they are. However as long as the provincials exist, they can dream of 1994 and 1944, or if nothing else, grit their teeth and work hard to try and get those one off wins over Ros/Sligo/Laois/Kildare that would mean so much.

However that dream will only sustain them as long as the provincial championships are real competitions. Even now they've been devalued a little bit with the advent of the back door, but if you change them to stand alone efforts with no bearing on the race for the Sam Maguire, then they become preseason competitions. Imagine for a moment you're the Tipperary footballers - things are going well, and your dream now is to push on, to knock over either Cork or Kerry in the Munster championship and maybe win a provincial title. I guarantee you they'll be driving full steam ahead to fulfil that aspiration - but that won't mean anything like the same if instead the Munster championship is turned into this blitz competition that is boxed off by the June Bank Holiday weekend, with the big teams all keeping one eye on the real games that are going to be played in late July and August. The currency of a provincial title will be dramatically devalued as there will be no reason for Eamon Fitzmaurice, Jim Gavin or Rory Gallagher to get their teams fully tuned in at that time of year. Instead they'll fulfil the fixture, and instead of our current system where there are five championship prizes that are worth winning, instead there will be just one.