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Watched "Gangs of London" 1st 2 episodes last night - seriously good I thought

Not as promising as I was hoping for. Plenty of action but Jesus is it far fetched. Watchable but the storyline is shíte.

Its crime drama porn. Awful stuff.

We have 19,877 cases but undertaken 153,954 tests. So for every positive case who are the other 7 people being tested?. How can many of them not be contacts, as you suggest?

I said I was unsure whether they were family members tested or not.

How many people do you think you were in close proximity to in the past 3 weeks?

Shopworkers? Neighbours? Other shoppers? A ratio of 1:7 is not high enough.

[I don't know what the figures are elsewhere - statista.com was completely wrong on numbers here, no reason they're any less wrong elsewhere.]

Figures from Gov.ie so I'm going to believe them.

So no other comparable country (bar the ones i listed) has done any more testing per population than we have and yet you say a ratio of 1:7 is not high enough. I don't think that is a reasonable stance. 

We have tested 31,179 per million. In Europe, only Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal have a higher rate (not counting Iceland or small states). How is this crap?. Genuinely asking.

Perhaps things have changed, but its my understanding in the ROI you are only tested if you are presenting symptoms (whereas in the UK you essentially have to be on your death bed  ).
If you are then positive, then no testing is done of your family and no attempts are made to test anyone you have been in contact with over the previous two weeks.
[Anyone, step in and correct me if I'm out of date here!]

That almost just testing for testing's sake. There is no direction to it and only a fraction of the benefit of extensive testing is accrued.

[edit: even if I'm wrong on testing family members, its self-explanatory how they got it - so of limited use outside of treating those individuals.]

Even if they took a representative sample of those that are testing positive and then walked back through their lives for the previous 3 weeks and went testing everyone they were in contact with. Then match up positive cases from those tests to how/where they met the carrier*. It then starts to give an understanding of most likely spreading vectors. From which, you have the beginnings of an information base on how to best fine tune the easement of lockdown.

*problem is now, with it so widespread, its hard to be sure if that was the carrier they got the virus from.

We have 19,877 cases but undertaken 153,954 tests. So for every positive case who are the other 7 people being tested?. How can many of them not be contacts, as you suggest?

79 deaths reported on the island today. We are not making the progress on this that we should after 6 weeks.

Indeed - problem is with the crap testing/tracing there probably is very little picture of how people are picking it up.

That google/apple app would be most useful right now (not exactly an exhaustive approach in itself, but a useful start).

We have tested 31,179 per million. In Europe, only Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal have a higher rate (not counting Iceland or small states). How is this crap?. Genuinely asking.

[anyone with 1 symptom will now be tested]

Testing changed today in the 26 counties, anyone with 1 symptom will now be tested. This may lead to a boost in cases, but it will be a more realistic figure. If that new figure isn't too high and is declining then perhaps you could ease up.

Not sure if its implicit in your comment but its not anyone. Still people with chronic medical conditions, hospital workers and those who are household contacts of confirmed cases. I think it has been poorly reported today.

What was death figures for the same period last year?

From 2010 - 2019 the highest weekly deaths in England and Wales for Week 14 of the year was about 12k. The lowest for the same period was 8k. Week 14 of 2020 is 16k.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1250007002165755905/photo/1

ONS have stitched on another 2000 deaths in England and Wales on top of those announced by the government (to 3rd Apr).

Just trying to get figures from the BBC website (which is an exercise in itself)

Main Blog
Of the 406 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales registered in the year up to April 3, that occurred outside hospitals:

217 took place in care homes
33 in hospices
136 in homes
3 in other communal establishments, and
17 elsewhere


Is there more splitting going on or where is the 2000 coming from?

Edit - 10% of the total deaths at any stage..

Try this.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending3april2020

Thanks, thats a great summary. One more question - so the 2000 odd include suspected cases as mentioned on a death cert and the 406 are definite cases?.

ONS have stitched on another 2000 deaths in England and Wales on top of those announced by the government (to 3rd Apr).

Just trying to get figures from the BBC website (which is an exercise in itself)

Main Blog
Of the 406 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales registered in the year up to April 3, that occurred outside hospitals:

217 took place in care homes
33 in hospices
136 in homes
3 in other communal establishments, and
17 elsewhere


Is there more splitting going on or where is the 2000 coming from?

Edit - 10% of the total deaths at any stage..

Just going through the register of votes from last night. Sylvia Hermon voted no to the Customs Union and Common Market motions and yes to Revoke and Confirmatory Referendum. Seems strange.

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/

[leading to no one option getting an overall majority]

To draw further parallels, the Brexit voste would have to have to either given multiple choice options (Remain, Remain in EEA, Remain in SM, Have a Customs union, crash out, etc) leading to no one option getting an overall majority or the UK government would have unilaterally picked one of those options and agreed it with EU prior to the referendum.

Could we trust them to get it right this time and to then pick their preferred option prior to calling a poll?

I presume in such a scenario, they'd use a PR system of voting to choose the preferred option

Do what Newfoundland did. 3 options? - Mays Deal, No Deal, Remain

From wiki
The island of Newfoundland, then a British colony, held two referendums in 1948 to determine its future. An initial referendum was held on June 3, 1948, to decide between continuing with the British appointed Commission of Government that had ruled the island since the 1930s, revert to dominion status with responsible government, or join Canadian Confederation. The result was inconclusive, with 44.6% supporting the restoration of dominion status, 41.1% for confederation with Canada, and 14.3% for continuing the Commission of Government. A second referendum on July 22, 1948, which asked Newfoundlanders to choose between confederation and dominion status, was decided by a vote of 52% to 48% for confederation with Canada. Newfoundland joined Canada on March 31, 1949.

So according to reports, May tabled three proposals last week.

Append the political declaration to the withdrawal agreement – so asking to turn fluffy terms like best endeavours into a legal context. Sounds bonkers. Set a fixed date for the free trade agreement to be finalised (Dec 2020) to prevent the need of the backstop – Canada took 7 years to do this and the UK (with a land border) think it can definitely be done it 18 months? Sounds bonkers. Commence the FTA talks prior to leaving in March – considering where the Commons are at adding anything more to the schedule before March sounds em bonkers.

How is Theresa May going to spin these updates to Parliament today?

There may be some clarifications coming from the EU but no legal assurances. She has to set out some plan for the next month that isn't, think about the consequences of no deal and vote for this!

What we can't find out now was the appetite for GB MPs for the 2-step backstop that the EU originally proposed. The UK wide backstop allowed GB MPs to be p1ssed off at two things, GB being in a customs union backstop and the splitting the precious union idea. Maybe if the first part had been split into two, an NI specific backstop followed by a GB one, the idea of the GB being in a customs union backstop may have been able to be sold as a much less likely outcome. Then the splitting the union idea would solely be an NI issue with less GB MPs grief grabbing. Of course this would have meant throwing the DUP under the bus much sooner and hoping for more cross-party support, which may not have happened anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uAounOTBYw

If you have never seen, or even if you have, Ronnie playing competitively he is in the NI Trophy final at the waterfront tomorrow against judd trump at 1pm. I don't know how many other sports have their greatest ever talent playing currently, but snooker does. I was at his semi today against Selby and the standard and drama was top class but the crowd was disappointing. Tomorrows match should be a cracker. So change your sporting plans and go watch a living legend.

[I scanned the away section a few times and didnt see it]

Did the OWC Parachute Regiment fleg get hung out at the Aviva? 

I scanned the away section a few times and didnt see it. Someone did have a St Patrick flag up with a NI crest. Bit more refreshing!

Seems like folk on here were willing the NI fans to let themselves down.  Bar a few boos for JMcC, it all seemed fairly "friendly".  Actually thought that the "He's one of our own" chant was quite amusing, but there you go.  I imagine a NI flag / banner with Rangers emblazened on it would have sparked quite a reaction.  Double standards anyone?

I've a flag myself so always look at others in stadiums. Having seen a photo online that it travelled I was curious to see would it appear. North fans had quiet a few including a royal one.

Did the OWC Parachute Regiment fleg get hung out at the Aviva? 

I scanned the away section a few times and didnt see it. Someone did have a St Patrick flag up with a NI crest. Bit more refreshing!