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Non GAA Discussion => General discussion => Topic started by: Snapchap on January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

Title: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM
Sounds like it will be imminent. Which I find surprising as I'd have thought Leo would want to afford himself as long a period as possible between the Black and Tans/RIC controversy and having to face the electorate.

Some burning questions though. Will this controversy affect their chances? Will their record on health and homelessness come back to bite them? Will the equally objectionable partitionist Micheal Martin be the first FF leader to never become Taoiseach? Will SF's slide continue or is their recent decent showing in the by-elections a sign of an up turn in fortunes?

Thoughts?

(Poll above - lets see how smart we are with our predictions)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 09, 2020, 07:23:15 PM
Greens probably get 10 seats.
FF will find it difficult to complain about the Government's record as they backed/facilitated them all the way
FF 55
FG 40
Shinners 16
Labiur 11
Greens 10
Loonielefties7
Independents of all sorts, Healy Raes, Denisheen Naughten etcetc 29
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 10, 2020, 07:30:34 AM
Greens probably get 10 seats.
FF will find it difficult to complain about the Government's record as they backed/facilitated them all the way
FF 55
FG 40
Shinners 16
Labiur 11
Greens 10
Loonielefties7
Independents of all sorts, Healy Raes, Denisheen Naughten etcetc 29
FF hard to know. It’s only a decade since the bailout
Independents and Labour could do well
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 10, 2020, 09:22:55 AM
I threw FF in big for the craic but them and FG will likely get around 90 between them.
How those 90 split will decide who leads the next Government which could be a right hotch potch again.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 10, 2020, 09:24:44 AM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: shark on January 10, 2020, 09:56:55 AM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.

Can’t see an improvement for Labour either. They will be down one seat immediately with Willy Penrose retiring, and no hope of Alan Mangan (of Westmeath 2004 Leinster winning team) holding that seat.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 10, 2020, 10:49:15 AM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.

Can’t see an improvement for Labour either. They will be down one seat immediately with Willy Penrose retiring, and no hope of Alan Mangan (of Westmeath 2004 Leinster winning team) holding that seat.


Labour need new, young leadership that can put them back to being what a proper Labour Party is. Pushing a social democratic agenda. Looking out for everyone, not just big business.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 10, 2020, 10:56:17 AM
The electorate has been very volatile since the crash.
They dumped FF.  They may give FG a kick up the arse- it's all very uncertain.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 10, 2020, 12:24:30 PM
The choices aren't exactly great..
Flanagan, Madigan, Regina etc
Willie O'Dea, Barry Cowan.....
Howlin
Maryloo
Sourpussed loonylefties
Donnelly who's been through a few Parties and is always right about everything
Healy Raes, Mattie McGrath, Grealish...
Greens.
FF will probably come up with a super duper housing plan to try and grab the younger voters (and look after builders of course).
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 10, 2020, 01:48:03 PM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.

Can’t see an improvement for Labour either. They will be down one seat immediately with Willy Penrose retiring, and no hope of Alan Mangan (of Westmeath 2004 Leinster winning team) holding that seat.


Labour need new, young leadership that can put them back to being what a proper Labour Party is. Pushing a social democratic agenda. Looking out for everyone, not just big business.

Those nasty big businesses, creating all those jobs.

Latest from IDA this week:

Wednesday, January 8th 2020 – Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation, Heather Humphreys and IDA Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to Ireland, today announced that employment levels in its client companies have now reached 245,096 -  the highest ever number employed in the multinational sector, exceeding targets set by Government contained in IDA Ireland’s Strategy – Winning: Foreign Direct Investment 2015-2019. The results announced today show another strong performance in 2019, which saw 250 investments made with 21,844 jobs created in FDI companies in the final year of IDA Ireland’s current strategy.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 10, 2020, 02:57:58 PM
What percentage in the BMW I wonder?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 10, 2020, 03:13:16 PM
If the election was held at the present time, I can’t see anything other than a hung Dáil, much the same as we have now.
The election is Fianna Fail’s to win but there is no sign that they will attract enough votes to become the largest party in the new Dail, never mind winning an overall majority.Martin just doesn’t have the mass appeal needed to demolish Varadker in a head-to-head and in this media-centred age, their TV confrontations will have more influence on proceedings than any amount of spoof about policy differences.  Manifestoes  won’t matter a whole lot as both major parties break their election assurances once they get into power.
Martin is a hangover from the days of Bertie and Brian Cowan and, until he and Willie O’Dea and anybody else who held ministerial office back then has stepped down, Fianna Fail won’t have the mass appeal needed to return to government. The electorate seems to have long memories in this regard.
At least, that’s what I find when talking to those around me and that’s my personal feeling also.
Sinn Fein didn’t do well at the European election; I think it’s fair to say Mary Lou isn’t performing well since she replaced Gerry Adams. She has gone backwards in the popularity stakes. A loss of only 3 or 4 would be a good result for the Shinners.
The Greens stand to pick up at the very least five seats- with the complexity of our PR system, it’s difficult to predict the outcome in most constituencies with any confidence. The last seat , or maybe two, in a large number of them will be decided by a handful of votes. But the Greta Thunberg factor and the greater awareness of environmental issues could see the Greens coming back with double figures.
Labour will be lucky to hold what they have. Brendan Howlin hasn’t been a success as a party leader and all of their main spokespersons are largely anonymous. We are going to wind up with a proliferation of mini parties and loony lefties, much the same as at present.
I’ll go with:
FF 58
FG 48
Shinners 16
Labour 12
Greens 15
The Rest 19
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: manfromdelmonte on January 10, 2020, 04:36:51 PM
What percentage in the BMW I wonder?
SFA
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 10, 2020, 04:47:41 PM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.

Can’t see an improvement for Labour either. They will be down one seat immediately with Willy Penrose retiring, and no hope of Alan Mangan (of Westmeath 2004 Leinster winning team) holding that seat.


Labour need new, young leadership that can put them back to being what a proper Labour Party is. Pushing a social democratic agenda. Looking out for everyone, not just big business.

Those nasty big businesses, creating all those jobs.

Latest from IDA this week:

Wednesday, January 8th 2020 – Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation, Heather Humphreys and IDA Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to Ireland, today announced that employment levels in its client companies have now reached 245,096 -  the highest ever number employed in the multinational sector, exceeding targets set by Government contained in IDA Ireland’s Strategy – Winning: Foreign Direct Investment 2015-2019. The results announced today show another strong performance in 2019, which saw 250 investments made with 21,844 jobs created in FDI companies in the final year of IDA Ireland’s current strategy.


And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 10, 2020, 05:14:33 PM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.

The only alternative to dependence on the multinationals is to rely on SMEs, which are currently being smothered by high tax rates and unsustainable regulation. If the government response is to sacrifice rural businesses including agriculture and food production on the altar of a bogus 'climate emergency', we'll be more reliant on the multinationals than ever before. But maybe that's their plan.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Mayo4Sam on January 10, 2020, 05:19:20 PM
What percentage in the BMW I wonder?

We’d be crippled in the West without those investments. AbbVie, Allergan, Abbott and Coke are all investing massive money in the north west. Boston Scientific in Galway are expanding, Amgen in Limerick.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 10, 2020, 05:55:26 PM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.

The only alternative to dependence on the multinationals is to rely on SMEs, which are currently being smothered by high tax rates and unsustainable regulation. If the government response is to sacrifice rural businesses including agriculture and food production on the altar of a bogus 'climate emergency', we'll be more reliant on the multinationals than ever before. But maybe that's their plan.


Amazing. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

You don't seem to realise SME's are subject to the same (extremely low) tax rates and regulation (same as all EU States) as multinationals in this country. The same laws. Absolutely incredible to suggest otherwise.

The climate emergency is a scientific fact. It's not an opinion or a theory - it is a fact. It is happening and will have to addressed or the children of today will likely be the last to see old age on this planet. You denying these facts won't change this. People like you only make it harder to tackle this existential problem. I don't want it to be true but it is.

The decline of rural Ireland started a long time ago. It has nothing to do with climate change or an approach to tackling climate change. Rural Ireland has a huge amount to gain if tackling climate change is done is properly but there is no plan. Changes have to be made in virtually all areas but that doesn't mean "sacrifice....on the altar..." as you hysterically put it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 10, 2020, 06:01:17 PM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.

The only alternative to dependence on the multinationals is to rely on SMEs, which are currently being smothered by high tax rates and unsustainable regulation. If the government response is to sacrifice rural businesses including agriculture and food production on the altar of a bogus 'climate emergency', we'll be more reliant on the multinationals than ever before. But maybe that's their plan.


Amazing. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

You don't seem to realise SME's are subject to the same (extremely low) tax rates and regulation (same as all EU States) as multinationals in this country. The same laws. Absolutely incredible to suggest otherwise.

The climate emergency is a scientific fact. It's not an opinion or a theory - it is a fact. It is happening and will have to addressed or the children of today will likely be the last to see old age on this planet. You denying these facts won't change this. People like you only make it harder to tackle this existential problem. I don't want it to be true but it is.

The decline of rural Ireland started a long time ago. It has nothing to do with climate change or an approach to tackling climate change. Rural Ireland has a huge amount to gain if tackling climate change is done is properly but there is no plan. Changes have to be made in virtually all areas but that doesn't mean "sacrifice....on the altar..." as you hysterically put it.

If you really think taxes are low (one word: USC) and regulation is light (go into your local cornershop and count the compulsory signs) in this country, I think we're going to be wasting our time if we start talking about the climate "emergency".
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 10, 2020, 07:05:09 PM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.

The only alternative to dependence on the multinationals is to rely on SMEs, which are currently being smothered by high tax rates and unsustainable regulation. If the government response is to sacrifice rural businesses including agriculture and food production on the altar of a bogus 'climate emergency', we'll be more reliant on the multinationals than ever before. But maybe that's their plan.


Amazing. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

You don't seem to realise SME's are subject to the same (extremely low) tax rates and regulation (same as all EU States) as multinationals in this country. The same laws. Absolutely incredible to suggest otherwise.

The climate emergency is a scientific fact. It's not an opinion or a theory - it is a fact. It is happening and will have to addressed or the children of today will likely be the last to see old age on this planet. You denying these facts won't change this. People like you only make it harder to tackle this existential problem. I don't want it to be true but it is.

The decline of rural Ireland started a long time ago. It has nothing to do with climate change or an approach to tackling climate change. Rural Ireland has a huge amount to gain if tackling climate change is done is properly but there is no plan. Changes have to be made in virtually all areas but that doesn't mean "sacrifice....on the altar..." as you hysterically put it.

If you really think taxes are low (one word: USC) and regulation is light (go into your local cornershop and count the compulsory signs) in this country, I think we're going to be wasting our time if we start talking about the climate "emergency".


There's no point....
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 10, 2020, 08:39:29 PM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.
I understand your sentiments completely, albeit I think some of it is a bit misguided, and I'd love to hear what your alternative to MNCs is!

Apple are here 40 years. There are scores of tech and pharma companies who are here now 20 years. I don't know exactly how many are here over 10 years, but it's well over 100, providing tens of thousands of long term well paid jobs.

Barring the Apple case which is debatable (they have a different structure to all the other tech cos, which I can explain if anyone is bored enough to want to know), every company pays their fair share of Irish tax on Irish profits. 12.5%.
The 2.5% you hear about sometimes from negligent media is absolute nonsense.

Whatever you want to say about FF, their tax policies to attract MNCs was brilliant and really successful. Whatever you want to say about FG, their tax policies have been better again. Our offering to companies looking to move away from havens has been spectacularly successful. And its driven by substance. Ireland does not work from a tax perspective, unless the MNCs bring substance and people. Jobs.

The tax take from corporation tax last year was phenomenal. A one-off many are saying. But this year will blow that out of the water as will the following year. 2021 will be the high point, as EU /OECD rules will push some of the tax elsewhere, but we'll still end up with a good share. There'll be no EU country with a better tax system, albeit we do need to monitor Eastern Europe (and hope that Scotland doesn't gain independence!).

It will be key that we don't blow the 2020/2021 windfalls. Whatever chance we have of FF or FG not spending everything, would you really trust Labour/SD/Greens not to spend it all?

I do think we tax our entrepreneurs too highly. These people also provide hugely valuable employment. While their companies are also taxed at 12.5%, when they take out money themselves, they are being taxed at 53%-55% on their marginal income. It's not a great encouragement for people to work harder when more than half of anything extra they earn goes in tax.

Why do you say working class are being screwed over? Lower paid workers in Ireland pay the lowest tax in the EU.

Health service is 100% a mess. My own mother had a horrific experience this year where she was sent home because a young doctor in Beaumont's primary objective seemed to be not to give her a bed, and it was a miracle it didn't cause her catastrophic injury. Back into A&E where she suffered utter humiliation for 48 hours, before being operated on by a master/genius to give her some chance of a normal life going forward.

Health service isn't a mess because FF and FG haven't thrown buckets of money at it. Some ministers have gone at it with the absolute best intentions but realised they were pishing into the wind. It's a not mess due to our doctors and nurses, who are generally very good. What it needs is a complete rip it up and start again approach. But that would mean lots of admin staff in the health service losing their job or being routed elsewhere. This can't and won't be let happen. Because of union power.
Would that improve under Lab/SD/Greens?   
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 10, 2020, 08:56:14 PM
You can't rip up the health service and start again because that would need every hospital and facility to close for a week or 2.
The only people I've heard complaining about the Sláintecare plan were Consultants because they'd lose their perk of a Private practice in public hospitals.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: larryin89 on January 10, 2020, 09:38:08 PM
“Why do you say working class are being screwed over? Lower paid workers in Ireland pay the lowest tax in the EU.”

Doubt that’s true but anyway let’s try another angle .

Where does one live in Dublin as a lower paid worker ?

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 10, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
I said "working people", not the working class.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eire90 on January 10, 2020, 10:39:43 PM
its a load of nonsense nothing will change
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 10, 2020, 11:38:47 PM
Speaking of his experiences as Minister for Health, Brendan Howlin once said it was clear that departmental policy was to make, and keep, the public health operating at such an inefficient and unacceptable level of inefficiency that the greatest number of those who could afford the cost would opt to take private insurance policies. Ministers are transient, whereas senior bureaucrats are permanent so ministers have minimal influence on policies.
(I can't recall his exact words but that's the gist of what he had to say on the matter.)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Mayo4Sam on January 11, 2020, 12:49:15 AM
If any of the parties were willing to tackle the welfare state they’d romp home in an election

A social welfare card would be start, a limit to what one person can take home

Put a stop the absolute sense of entitlement that people who have added nothing to the state have
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: GiveItToTheShooters on January 11, 2020, 01:45:31 AM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.
I understand your sentiments completely, albeit I think some of it is a bit misguided, and I'd love to hear what your alternative to MNCs is!

Apple are here 40 years. There are scores of tech and pharma companies who are here now 20 years. I don't know exactly how many are here over 10 years, but it's well over 100, providing tens of thousands of long term well paid jobs.

Barring the Apple case which is debatable (they have a different structure to all the other tech cos, which I can explain if anyone is bored enough to want to know), every company pays their fair share of Irish tax on Irish profits. 12.5%.
The 2.5% you hear about sometimes from negligent media is absolute nonsense.

Whatever you want to say about FF, their tax policies to attract MNCs was brilliant and really successful. Whatever you want to say about FG, their tax policies have been better again. Our offering to companies looking to move away from havens has been spectacularly successful. And its driven by substance. Ireland does not work from a tax perspective, unless the MNCs bring substance and people. Jobs.

The tax take from corporation tax last year was phenomenal. A one-off many are saying. But this year will blow that out of the water as will the following year. 2021 will be the high point, as EU /OECD rules will push some of the tax elsewhere, but we'll still end up with a good share. There'll be no EU country with a better tax system, albeit we do need to monitor Eastern Europe (and hope that Scotland doesn't gain independence!).

It will be key that we don't blow the 2020/2021 windfalls. Whatever chance we have of FF or FG not spending everything, would you really trust Labour/SD/Greens not to spend it all?

I do think we tax our entrepreneurs too highly. These people also provide hugely valuable employment. While their companies are also taxed at 12.5%, when they take out money themselves, they are being taxed at 53%-55% on their marginal income. It's not a great encouragement for people to work harder when more than half of anything extra they earn goes in tax.

Why do you say working class are being screwed over? Lower paid workers in Ireland pay the lowest tax in the EU.

Health service is 100% a mess. My own mother had a horrific experience this year where she was sent home because a young doctor in Beaumont's primary objective seemed to be not to give her a bed, and it was a miracle it didn't cause her catastrophic injury. Back into A&E where she suffered utter humiliation for 48 hours, before being operated on by a master/genius to give her some chance of a normal life going forward.

Health service isn't a mess because FF and FG haven't thrown buckets of money at it. Some ministers have gone at it with the absolute best intentions but realised they were pishing into the wind. It's a not mess due to our doctors and nurses, who are generally very good. What it needs is a complete rip it up and start again approach. But that would mean lots of admin staff in the health service losing their job or being routed elsewhere. This can't and won't be let happen. Because of union power.
Would that improve under Lab/SD/Greens?
What a load of absolute tripe. Ireland has one of the lowest, if not the lowest, corporate tax rates around, and if the government had a set of balls that would be their first port of call, massively increasing the corporate tax rate for large multinationals to tackle the the housing and health crisis. But no, you as a clear West Brit, for some random reason unrelated to this matter wanting Scotland to remain attached to the UK, says it all. The fact of the matter is that these entrepreneurs are not taxed enough, and taxing them properly, never mind anything unrelated with Scotland, would go a long way to solving simple deficit issues.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 11, 2020, 10:58:05 AM
Speaking of his experiences as Minister for Health, Brendan Howlin once said it was clear that departmental policy was to make, and keep, the public health operating at such an inefficient and unacceptable level of inefficiency that the greatest number of those who could afford the cost would opt to take private insurance policies. Ministers are transient, whereas senior bureaucrats are permanent so ministers have minimal influence on policies.
(I can't recall his exact words but that's the gist of what he had to say on the matter.)
It appears that way alright.
Mind you in practice if the Service did improve a lot of people would drop health insurance meaning the Service would have to expand again to cope!!
Why do we need a HSE, can the Dept of Health not run the Service for a population of 5m??
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 11, 2020, 11:16:55 AM
I said "working people", not the working class.
But still didn't answer the question.

How are working people (in a country with pretty much full employment) being screwed over by FG and how would Lab/SD/Greens/you do better?

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 11, 2020, 11:17:16 AM
If any of the parties were willing to tackle the welfare state they’d romp home in an election

A social welfare card would be start, a limit to what one person can take home

Put a stop the absolute sense of entitlement that people who have added nothing to the state have
You could say the same about corporate welfare.
The economic model is very open and very volatile when the global economy gets into trouble. The economy contracted over 12% from 2008 to 2010.
Social welfare can’t get that sort of effect.

5% of people own 40% of everything. There is enough money there to fund the health system.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 11, 2020, 11:21:32 AM
I said "working people", not the working class.
But still didn't answer the question.

How are working people (in a country with pretty much full employment) being screwed over by FG and how would Lab/SD/Greens/you do better?

Full employment doesn’t mean what it used to
with 10k homeless. Full employment doesn’t mean payrises or affordable housing.  FG are business as usual and a lot of things are broken

Income taxes are higher than elsewhere because of the last crash. Decisions made a decade ago.
.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 11, 2020, 11:23:12 AM
If any of the parties were willing to tackle the welfare state they’d romp home in an election

A social welfare card would be start, a limit to what one person can take home

Put a stop the absolute sense of entitlement that people who have added nothing to the state have
They wouldn't romp home in the slightest. Our media are very liberal/left wing. Anyone who publicly suggests there are people gaming the welfare system are hung out to dry in the media.

We have to look after the lads sitting at home scratching themselves when they get a moment to spare between playing X-Box and watching Netflix.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 11, 2020, 11:31:26 AM

What a load of absolute tripe. Ireland has one of the lowest, if not the lowest, corporate tax rates around, and if the government had a set of balls that would be their first port of call, massively increasing the corporate tax rate for large multinationals to tackle the the housing and health crisis. But no, you as a clear West Brit, for some random reason unrelated to this matter wanting Scotland to remain attached to the UK, says it all. The fact of the matter is that these entrepreneurs are not taxed enough, and taxing them properly, never mind anything unrelated with Scotland, would go a long way to solving simple deficit issues.

Good man.
Increasing the CT rate from 12.5% would be the policy of a complete moron. Even Sinn Fein copped on to that 5 or 6 years ago.

If Scotland got independence they would immediately reduce their corporation tax rate to similar to Ireland's and they'd rejoin the EU, because they know that would help attract foreign investment. They would instantly become a significant obstacle to us continuing to be so successful in attracting new MNCs to Ireland.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 11, 2020, 02:00:06 PM
The tax model ended up generating 2 economies - Multinational and local- because the benefits aren’t spread around and there is a limit to what tax redistribution can do to compensate. BMW gdp per head is about half of Leinster/Munster. Within those 2 the split between MNC/local is probably close to 2/1.

Running asset bubbles in the absence of a lender of last resort is insane.

There will probably be a lot of reform after the next crash.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fionntamhnach on January 11, 2020, 02:44:14 PM
What a load of absolute tripe. Ireland has one of the lowest, if not the lowest, corporate tax rates around, <snip>

Ireland, Republic of: 12.5% on trading income, otherwise 25%

Bulgaria: 10%
Canary Islands: 4%, as opposed to 25% in the rest of Spain
Croatia: 18%, with a special 12% rate for small businesses
Cyprus: 12.5%
Hungary: 9%
Lithuania: 15%, with a special 5% rate for small businesses
Poland: 19%, with a special 9% rate for small businesses
UK: 17%, from 2020

Outside of the EU but still within Europe...

Bosnia & Herzegovina: 10%
Isle of Man: 0%
Liechtenstein: 12.5%
North Macedonia: 10%
Montenegro: 9%
Switzerland: 16.55%

All of the above is massively simplified, and may not take into account special breaks etc. and needs to be made in context with other governmental taxation e.g. VAT, property, dividends, income and so on. But in general, Ireland would have one of the lower rates of corporation tax in Western Europe (west of the old Iron Curtain) with it only being notably lower in "havens" like the Isle of Man & Andorra, the majority of countries are in the 20's.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fionntamhnach on January 11, 2020, 03:31:13 PM
Our media are very liberal/left wing.

The "mainstream" media in Ireland rather appears to look left wing or Liberal in comparison to the same platforms in the UK or USA, which would be the most accessible for Irish people to engage in for consuming foreign media thanks to culture & language. But compared to most of the rest of the EU it is very MOR, somewhat the same as Canada and New Zealand too. The most notable difference between the main Irish and British media outlets is that the Irish media doesn't delve into major hysteria anywhere near as often as their British counterparts. Even the Irish versions of the British tabloids aren't near the same level of awful as their counterparts across the Irish Sea.

(It would also be needed to define what "Liberal" and "left-wing" mean in context - historically Ireland has never really had a liberal political tradition in that of the European mould outside of the Whigs of the 19th century that was linked to the rest of the UK at the time, and this nearly all labelling of "liberal" or "liberalism" in Ireland is derived from its bastardisation in the USA that has crept over the Atlantic in the last few decades.)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 11, 2020, 04:01:56 PM
Yanks describe anything not extremely right wing as "left wing" and "liberal", the latter seems to be their ultimate insult.
Always sad when you see Irish people buying into that sirt if sh1te .
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Main Street on January 11, 2020, 04:29:17 PM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.

Can’t see an improvement for Labour either. They will be down one seat immediately with Willy Penrose retiring, and no hope of Alan Mangan (of Westmeath 2004 Leinster winning team) holding that seat.


Labour need new, young leadership that can put them back to being what a proper Labour Party is. Pushing a social democratic agenda. Looking out for everyone, not just big business.

Those nasty big businesses, creating all those jobs.

Latest from IDA this week:

Wednesday, January 8th 2020 – Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation, Heather Humphreys and IDA Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to Ireland, today announced that employment levels in its client companies have now reached 245,096 -  the highest ever number employed in the multinational sector, exceeding targets set by Government contained in IDA Ireland’s Strategy – Winning: Foreign Direct Investment 2015-2019. The results announced today show another strong performance in 2019, which saw 250 investments made with 21,844 jobs created in FDI companies in the final year of IDA Ireland’s current strategy.

21,844 jobs created in FDI companies.  that's the gross figure, (in Ruud Gullit parlance) the net gain figure after job losses are deducted  is  13,867
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: manfromdelmonte on January 11, 2020, 09:43:56 PM
Clearly the Greens should do well, based on their Euro elections showing. Can see FF gaining a few seats and FG losing a few. Not sure how we'd see a big improvement for Labour. Social Democrats will be hampered by their small organisation - if they could get enough candidates and structures I think they could eat Labour up. To me SF are going to struggle to rise above their current seat level. Even though I wouldn't blame them for it, the NI Assembly stand off hasn't done them any favours. PbP, solidarity etc will do well in their working class strongholds but to because really serious players they need to develop their message to attract left leaning middle class voters.

I'm hoping for a government with a strong left and Green agenda. We cannot continue the mistakes of the past - it's time for us to get real about the challenges our society at home and around the world face.

Can’t see an improvement for Labour either. They will be down one seat immediately with Willy Penrose retiring, and no hope of Alan Mangan (of Westmeath 2004 Leinster winning team) holding that seat.


Labour need new, young leadership that can put them back to being what a proper Labour Party is. Pushing a social democratic agenda. Looking out for everyone, not just big business.

Those nasty big businesses, creating all those jobs.

Latest from IDA this week:

Wednesday, January 8th 2020 – Minister for Business, Enterprise and Innovation, Heather Humphreys and IDA Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to Ireland, today announced that employment levels in its client companies have now reached 245,096 -  the highest ever number employed in the multinational sector, exceeding targets set by Government contained in IDA Ireland’s Strategy – Winning: Foreign Direct Investment 2015-2019. The results announced today show another strong performance in 2019, which saw 250 investments made with 21,844 jobs created in FDI companies in the final year of IDA Ireland’s current strategy.

21,844 jobs created in FDI companies.  that's the gross figure, (in Ruud Gullit parlance) the net gain figure after job losses are deducted  is  13,867
And probably 90% around Dublin
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 12, 2020, 08:59:10 AM
No not 90% in Dublin, 60% actually. Still higher than ideal, but the main thing is there is jobs growth outside Dublin and unfortunately you can’t force companies to locate in particular counties. There’s no question that IDA does their best to showcase regional locations and offers incentives for the regions.

Here is what IDA have just released re regional investment by MNCs:

“54,868 jobs were created outside of Dublin over the past five years leading to 33,118 additional direct jobs (net) on the ground in regions at the end of this strategy. 110 investments were won for regions in 2019 with 5,368 net jobs created.

Every region hit the five-year strategy targets of a 30% uplift in investment we set out to achieve and three regions - the Mid West, Mid East and South East exceeded 40% of targets. Investments in The Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.

This is clear evidence that our deliberate and focused strategy of targeting investment for regions is paying off. That includes our Regional Property Programme which has delivered seven of 11 planned advance building solutions – technological or office buildings – to offer investors attractive turnkey building solutions in regional locations.

All seven of the buildings completed are now occupied by businesses, demonstrating the success of this strategy of stepping into the market where we see opportunity and can secure clients when the necessary properties aren’t being provided by the private sector.”

Some great work being done and some great successes.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 12, 2020, 01:22:33 PM
No not 90% in Dublin, 60% actually. Still higher than ideal, but the main thing is there is jobs growth outside Dublin and unfortunately you can’t force companies to locate in particular counties. There’s no question that IDA does their best to showcase regional locations and offers incentives for the regions.

Here is what IDA have just released re regional investment by MNCs:

“54,868 jobs were created outside of Dublin over the past five years leading to 33,118 additional direct jobs (net) on the ground in regions at the end of this strategy. 110 investments were won for regions in 2019 with 5,368 net jobs created.

Every region hit the five-year strategy targets of a 30% uplift in investment we set out to achieve and three regions - the Mid West, Mid East and South East exceeded 40% of targets. Investments in The Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.

This is clear evidence that our deliberate and focused strategy of targeting investment for regions is paying off. That includes our Regional Property Programme which has delivered seven of 11 planned advance building solutions – technological or office buildings – to offer investors attractive turnkey building solutions in regional locations.

All seven of the buildings completed are now occupied by businesses, demonstrating the success of this strategy of stepping into the market where we see opportunity and can secure clients when the necessary properties aren’t being provided by the private sector.”

Some great work being done and some great successes.

Hound, GDP per head in the BMW region is half of that elsewhere.
How can that be considered a success ?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 12, 2020, 06:14:14 PM
You haven’t got the first clue what that question even means!

The response is in my previous post. If you’ve any more questions, try putting them in your own words.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 12, 2020, 06:30:26 PM
No not 90% in Dublin, 60% actually. Still higher than ideal, but the main thing is there is jobs growth outside Dublin and unfortunately you can’t force companies to locate in particular counties. There’s no question that IDA does their best to showcase regional locations and offers incentives for the regions.

Here is what IDA have just released re regional investment by MNCs:

“54,868 jobs were created outside of Dublin over the past five years leading to 33,118 additional direct jobs (net) on the ground in regions at the end of this strategy. 110 investments were won for regions in 2019 with 5,368 net jobs created.

Every region hit the five-year strategy targets of a 30% uplift in investment we set out to achieve and three regions - the Mid West, Mid East and South East exceeded 40% of targets. Investments in The Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.

This is clear evidence that our deliberate and focused strategy of targeting investment for regions is paying off. That includes our Regional Property Programme which has delivered seven of 11 planned advance building solutions – technological or office buildings – to offer investors attractive turnkey building solutions in regional locations.

All seven of the buildings completed are now occupied by businesses, demonstrating the success of this strategy of stepping into the market where we see opportunity and can secure clients when the necessary properties aren’t being provided by the private sector.”

Some great work being done and some great successes.

Hound, GDP per head in the BMW region is half of that elsewhere.
How can that be considered a success ?

GDP in the Irish context is grossly inflated, the real difference is less.
What do you suggest, lowering the GDP in the East and South, or increasing it in the BMW? How would you do this?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 12, 2020, 06:38:14 PM
No not 90% in Dublin, 60% actually. Still higher than ideal, but the main thing is there is jobs growth outside Dublin and unfortunately you can’t force companies to locate in particular counties. There’s no question that IDA does their best to showcase regional locations and offers incentives for the regions.

Here is what IDA have just released re regional investment by MNCs:

“54,868 jobs were created outside of Dublin over the past five years leading to 33,118 additional direct jobs (net) on the ground in regions at the end of this strategy. 110 investments were won for regions in 2019 with 5,368 net jobs created.

Every region hit the five-year strategy targets of a 30% uplift in investment we set out to achieve and three regions - the Mid West, Mid East and South East exceeded 40% of targets. Investments in The Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.

This is clear evidence that our deliberate and focused strategy of targeting investment for regions is paying off. That includes our Regional Property Programme which has delivered seven of 11 planned advance building solutions – technological or office buildings – to offer investors attractive turnkey building solutions in regional locations.

All seven of the buildings completed are now occupied by businesses, demonstrating the success of this strategy of stepping into the market where we see opportunity and can secure clients when the necessary properties aren’t being provided by the private sector.”

Some great work being done and some great successes.

Hound, GDP per head in the BMW region is half of that elsewhere.
How can that be considered a success ?
I don't think he is necessarily saying that it's a success- or a failure either for that matter! The IDA says it set out to achieve a 30% uplift in investments in a number of regions over a five year period and investments in the Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.
That has to be considered a success by any rationale but since since investment in the region was very low to begin with, the improvement is relative- the region still lags behind all others.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 12, 2020, 06:56:45 PM
No not 90% in Dublin, 60% actually. Still higher than ideal, but the main thing is there is jobs growth outside Dublin and unfortunately you can’t force companies to locate in particular counties. There’s no question that IDA does their best to showcase regional locations and offers incentives for the regions.

Here is what IDA have just released re regional investment by MNCs:

“54,868 jobs were created outside of Dublin over the past five years leading to 33,118 additional direct jobs (net) on the ground in regions at the end of this strategy. 110 investments were won for regions in 2019 with 5,368 net jobs created.

Every region hit the five-year strategy targets of a 30% uplift in investment we set out to achieve and three regions - the Mid West, Mid East and South East exceeded 40% of targets. Investments in The Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.

This is clear evidence that our deliberate and focused strategy of targeting investment for regions is paying off. That includes our Regional Property Programme which has delivered seven of 11 planned advance building solutions – technological or office buildings – to offer investors attractive turnkey building solutions in regional locations.

All seven of the buildings completed are now occupied by businesses, demonstrating the success of this strategy of stepping into the market where we see opportunity and can secure clients when the necessary properties aren’t being provided by the private sector.”

Some great work being done and some great successes.

Hound, GDP per head in the BMW region is half of that elsewhere.
How can that be considered a success ?
I don't think he is necessarily saying that it's a success- or a failure either for that matter! The IDA says it set out to achieve a 30% uplift in investments in a number of regions over a five year period and investments in the Border region increased threefold since the outset of the strategy.
That has to be considered a success by any rationale but since since investment in the region was very low to begin with, the improvement is relative- the region still lags behind all others.
The IDA is a Government Agency.
Regional inequality is driving people to Dublin and exacerbating the problems there.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 12, 2020, 07:01:01 PM
How do we reverse or equalise things between the BMW and the East/South/Southeast?
Google, Apple or Intel arent going to set up or move to Elphin or Ballyjamesduff.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Mayo4Sam on January 13, 2020, 08:38:37 AM
How do we reverse or equalise things between the BMW and the East/South/Southeast?
Google, Apple or Intel arent going to set up or move to Elphin or Ballyjamesduff.

Well one of them would have been in Ballinasloe but for planning

I know it was only a data centre but it helps


We do have a lot of pharma and manufacturing in the west. Much better companies to have as they give a good mixture of high and low skilled labour and they provide secondary employment, lots of local companies that provide niche products to these.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 13, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
And when the EU come for our Corporation Tax rate/regime, which they will, then what? Those companies are not here out of the goodness of their hearts. They don't pay a fair share of tax and in a country where we can't run a health service, can't house people, can't provide clean water or fix busted pipes, can't provide a proper transport system I'd say it's high time we started looking at another, more sustainable way of developing our country. How many of those jobs will be there in 10-20-30 years time? How are we going to cope with income/wealth distribution when there are very few jobs that aren't done by machines? What is our approach to the climate emergency apart from taxing carbon and trying to not upset farmers?

Foreign Direct Investment has played an important role in Ireland's development but the time to plan for alternatives is long overdue. We've no plan. We lurch from crisis to crisis - some day we'll hit one we can't overcome by screwing working people.
I understand your sentiments completely, albeit I think some of it is a bit misguided, and I'd love to hear what your alternative to MNCs is!

Apple are here 40 years. There are scores of tech and pharma companies who are here now 20 years. I don't know exactly how many are here over 10 years, but it's well over 100, providing tens of thousands of long term well paid jobs.

Barring the Apple case which is debatable (they have a different structure to all the other tech cos, which I can explain if anyone is bored enough to want to know), every company pays their fair share of Irish tax on Irish profits. 12.5%.
The 2.5% you hear about sometimes from negligent media is absolute nonsense.

Whatever you want to say about FF, their tax policies to attract MNCs was brilliant and really successful. Whatever you want to say about FG, their tax policies have been better again. Our offering to companies looking to move away from havens has been spectacularly successful. And its driven by substance. Ireland does not work from a tax perspective, unless the MNCs bring substance and people. Jobs.

The tax take from corporation tax last year was phenomenal. A one-off many are saying. But this year will blow that out of the water as will the following year. 2021 will be the high point, as EU /OECD rules will push some of the tax elsewhere, but we'll still end up with a good share. There'll be no EU country with a better tax system, albeit we do need to monitor Eastern Europe (and hope that Scotland doesn't gain independence!).

It will be key that we don't blow the 2020/2021 windfalls. Whatever chance we have of FF or FG not spending everything, would you really trust Labour/SD/Greens not to spend it all?

I do think we tax our entrepreneurs too highly. These people also provide hugely valuable employment. While their companies are also taxed at 12.5%, when they take out money themselves, they are being taxed at 53%-55% on their marginal income. It's not a great encouragement for people to work harder when more than half of anything extra they earn goes in tax.

Why do you say working class are being screwed over? Lower paid workers in Ireland pay the lowest tax in the EU.

Health service is 100% a mess. My own mother had a horrific experience this year where she was sent home because a young doctor in Beaumont's primary objective seemed to be not to give her a bed, and it was a miracle it didn't cause her catastrophic injury. Back into A&E where she suffered utter humiliation for 48 hours, before being operated on by a master/genius to give her some chance of a normal life going forward.

Health service isn't a mess because FF and FG haven't thrown buckets of money at it. Some ministers have gone at it with the absolute best intentions but realised they were pishing into the wind. It's a not mess due to our doctors and nurses, who are generally very good. What it needs is a complete rip it up and start again approach. But that would mean lots of admin staff in the health service losing their job or being routed elsewhere. This can't and won't be let happen. Because of union power.
Would that improve under Lab/SD/Greens?


Apologies for the delay in replying, was busy with a few things over the weekend. I got halfway through one reply and had to go and lost the post.

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Working people are screwed over because they DO pay their fair share of taxes and can't avoid it. They pay relatively high rates of tax on income which is deducted at source. If you have kids you know that "free" education is not a reality. Heath system a mess means most feel they have to have Medical Insurance to ensure they get treated on time. Illegal VRT on cars, high VAT rates - I could go on. Those on higher rates of income pay the same marginal rate of tax which is crazy. Tax rates are graduated for a reason and then it stops. Unlike many who are conditioned to think otherwise, the numbers of people of State benefits doesn't bother me. The money spent on this pales into insignificance when you compare it to tax evasion/avoidance. That's where our primary focus should be. It's not surprise to me that in an era where tax rates are under scrutiny we amazingly have higher tax revenues despite not the best economic conditions.

On to the Health Service. What you've conveniently avoided in all of this is the two tier system and the private aspect of the health system. These have been encouraged and facilitated at every turn by FF, FG, the PD's and (shamefully) Labour over decades. Money has been thrown at the issue but with no strategy which is reckless and irresponsible. The administrative inefficiencies in the Health system are mind boggling. These problems are known for a long time and nothing has been done to address them. Maybe it's difficult with existing contracts and resources but every day we put off the transition makes it harder. Unions aren't as powerful as they once were but they must be part of the solution. I believe if a serious, honest effort at reform was on the table Unions and their members wouldn't be found wanting. The people who work in the HSE are by and large good people, highly qualified and dedicated and they want things to be better. Our governments have done nothing to help them bar right and check and tell them sort it our yourselves (but don't change X, Y or Z). Blaming the Unions is just a total red herring. What solutions have they blocked? I don't know if Lab/Soc Dems/Greens will improve it but I believe to people in SD/Greens are genuine in their aspirations to make people's lives better (Labour need to prove it but I hope they've learned their lessons).
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 11:28:58 AM
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: dublin7 on January 14, 2020, 11:45:40 AM
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.

He new FG wouldn't win the no confidence vote so called the election to avoid the embarrassment of defeat.

Why would he call it for a Saturday? Friday was an ideal day as you had the weekend for the bloodsports of watching all the election results coming in.

Election is on the same day as Ireland v Wales in 6 nations in Dublin, but I doubt Leo was aware of that. I wonder will our wonderful sports minister go to the Aviva for the game??
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Owenmoresider on January 14, 2020, 12:03:49 PM
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.

He new FG wouldn't win the no confidence vote so called the election to avoid the embarrassment of defeat.

Why would he call it for a Saturday? Friday was an ideal day as you had the weekend for the bloodsports of watching all the election results coming in.

Election is on the same day as Ireland v Wales in 6 nations in Dublin, but I doubt Leo was aware of that. I wonder will our wonderful sports minister go to the Aviva for the game??
He might as well, get to see a few mauls before he himself is mauled the next day.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: LooseCannon on January 14, 2020, 12:13:17 PM
So, what are the predictions seats-wise?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 14, 2020, 12:14:08 PM
My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

The alternative may not be one thing, but a number of different things. Work is needed to develop multiple measures, each of which can make a contribution.

Quote
12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.


There is no particular logic for corporation tax at all, tax should come when human beings receive the money. However, given that corporation tax exists,  then the Irish model of a lowish rate with few exemptions is a reasonable one. It may be the case that big companies are more lightly taxed than the local business, and this cannot be justified.

Quote
Working people are screwed over because they DO pay their fair share of taxes and can't avoid it. They pay relatively high rates of tax on income which is deducted at source. If you have kids you know that "free" education is not a reality. Heath system a mess means most feel they have to have Medical Insurance to ensure they get treated on time. Illegal VRT on cars, high VAT rates - I could go on. Those on higher rates of income pay the same marginal rate of tax which is crazy. Tax rates are graduated for a reason and then it stops. Unlike many who are conditioned to think otherwise, the numbers of people of State benefits doesn't bother me. The money spent on this pales into insignificance when you compare it to tax evasion/avoidance. That's where our primary focus should be. It's not surprise to me that in an era where tax rates are under scrutiny we amazingly have higher tax revenues despite not the best economic conditions.

Many people do not pay tax or receive more than they pay. This is appropriate in a social democratic society, but it also leads to a lot of votes from people not really interested in reforming the system.

Quote
On to the Health Service. What you've conveniently avoided in all of this is the two tier system and the private aspect of the health system. These have been encouraged and facilitated at every turn by FF, FG, the PD's and (shamefully) Labour over decades. Money has been thrown at the issue but with no strategy which is reckless and irresponsible. The administrative inefficiencies in the Health system are mind boggling. These problems are known for a long time and nothing has been done to address them. Maybe it's difficult with existing contracts and resources but every day we put off the transition makes it harder. Unions aren't as powerful as they once were but they must be part of the solution. I believe if a serious, honest effort at reform was on the table Unions and their members wouldn't be found wanting. The people who work in the HSE are by and large good people, highly qualified and dedicated and they want things to be better. Our governments have done nothing to help them bar right and check and tell them sort it our yourselves (but don't change X, Y or Z). Blaming the Unions is just a total red herring. What solutions have they blocked? I don't know if Lab/Soc Dems/Greens will improve it but I believe to people in SD/Greens are genuine in their aspirations to make people's lives better (Labour need to prove it but I hope they've learned their lessons).

Unions are blamed, but the real problem is a  lack of clarity of thought at management level. In general, there are efficient parts of the public service and less  efficient parts and they have much the same union agreements. But there is never any discussion of efficiency and no real reward for improving it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Shamrock Shore on January 14, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 12:38:52 PM
And a FF/ SF/ Green Government Sham?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

FG 45
FF 43
Lab 12
SF 15
Green 17
Lefties 4
Indies  rest

The country is trína chéile
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Owenmoresider on January 14, 2020, 01:30:16 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19
FF 57
FG 48
SF 18
GRN 9
LAB 7
PBP/LEFT 3
SD's 2
Others 16
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on January 14, 2020, 01:53:33 PM
I don't know a lot(embarrassed to say) about ROI politics, what is the most likely make up of the government?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 14, 2020, 02:37:15 PM

All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon.

On to the Health Service. What you've conveniently avoided in all of this is the two tier system and the private aspect of the health system. These have been encouraged and facilitated at every turn by FF, FG, the PD's and (shamefully) Labour over decades. Money has been thrown at the issue but with no strategy which is reckless and irresponsible. The administrative inefficiencies in the Health system are mind boggling. These problems are known for a long time and nothing has been done to address them. Maybe it's difficult with existing contracts and resources but every day we put off the transition makes it harder. Unions aren't as powerful as they once were but they must be part of the solution. I believe if a serious, honest effort at reform was on the table Unions and their members wouldn't be found wanting. The people who work in the HSE are by and large good people, highly qualified and dedicated and they want things to be better. Our governments have done nothing to help them bar right and check and tell them sort it our yourselves (but don't change X, Y or Z). Blaming the Unions is just a total red herring. What solutions have they blocked? I don't know if Lab/Soc Dems/Greens will improve it but I believe to people in SD/Greens are genuine in their aspirations to make people's lives better (Labour need to prove it but I hope they've learned their lessons).
I’m far from an expert on the health service and can only go on my experiences.
The story I told above was about a person who has had private health insurance for the last 40 years. No help whatsoever when you’re lying incapacitated on a trolley in Beaumont A&E! 

But I was involved in the financial side of a private hospital for a while. Extremely well run and profitable. Could pay front line staff well, could fire under-performers, didn’t have reams of middle management clogging up resources and adding no value. Unions willing to engage in a process that would see dead wood removed? I'm not so sure.

Tax hamonisation
- Rate harmonisation is not happening. Ever.

- There was a proposal doing the rounds for the last few years called CCCTB. Basically a tool where taxable profits would have nothing to do with the accounts of a company and they’d come up with a formula based on where customers of companies live. You could have a situation where the Irish company has 70% of the group’s European profits and another 30 countries have 1% each. CCCTB would disregard and give Ireland say 5% and divvy up the 95% among everyone else. Ireland would still tax at 12.5% but on a much small base. Turns out Germany would be a net loser if CCTB would be implemented, so it’ll never be implemented with them not supporting it.

- Digital Services Tax (DST) is where it’s really at in terms of seeking more tax on big MNCs. A straight 2 or 3% tax on revenues earned from customers in specific countries. It was supposed to be brought in on a worldwide or even European basis but some countries have jumped the gun. France, Italy, UK, Austria and Turkey have already brought it in or are about to bring it in. This will hit the MNCs hard, but whether it will impact Ireland’s tax take is hard to say. As I said before we'll have gangbusters CT take in 2020 and 2021, then it will decrease a bit. But I still think it'll be very strong and won't go below 2018 levels, perhaps even 2019 levels might be sustainable. I don’t think DST will have a significant impact on Ireland’s competitiveness, but it does bring uncertainty and we’ll need to see how it plays out.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 14, 2020, 03:08:48 PM
- There was a proposal doing the rounds for the last few years called CCCTB. Basically a tool where taxable profits would have nothing to do with the accounts of a company and they’d come up with a formula based on where customers of companies live. You could have a situation where the Irish company has 70% of the group’s European profits and another 30 countries have 1% each. CCCTB would disregard and give Ireland say 5% and divvy up the 95% among everyone else. Ireland would still tax at 12.5% but on a much small base. Turns out Germany would be a net loser if CCTB would be implemented, so it’ll never be implemented with them not supporting it.

The point is that countries are quick to talk about Google, but this concept does not only apply to Google. If Irish people buy a Mercedes car or Chanel perfume, and they have bought more of these luxury goods as the country has become richer, then the profit from those products lies in France or Germany and they don't think that is a problem.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Tubberman on January 14, 2020, 03:10:23 PM
Seems the Election will be on SATURDAY!!! 8th February.
Leo's hand forced as it was rumoured Maria of the swings Bailey wouldn't vote if there was a No Confidence motion on Harris.
Will be great fun as the new Register dirsnt come into force till 14th Feb.

He new FG wouldn't win the no confidence vote so called the election to avoid the embarrassment of defeat.

Why would he call it for a Saturday? Friday was an ideal day as you had the weekend for the bloodsports of watching all the election results coming in.

Election is on the same day as Ireland v Wales in 6 nations in Dublin, but I doubt Leo was aware of that. I wonder will our wonderful sports minister go to the Aviva for the game??

To avoid the scenario where parents have to take a day off work or scramble to arrange alternative childcare because the schools are closed for polling day.
Thinking of the working people, the people who get up early ;)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 14, 2020, 03:15:22 PM

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Sorry for splitting in two.

Agree completely re encouraging indigenous business and sustainable renewable energy. But that can be done alongside continuing to attract MNCs. Enterprise Ireland has some great supports for Irish businesses.

MNCs pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. “Huge Irish tax breaks” are a complete myth.

Imagine a newspaper report saying Hound earns 100k and pays 50k tax in Ireland. Hound’s brother lives in the Cayman Islands earns 900k and pays no tax. So the Hound brothers have an effective tax rate of 5% and it’s a disgrace!

That’s exactly what the media do with the Googles and Facebooks. They combine their Irish resident company which pays 12.5% tax and their Bermudan or Cayman resident companies that pay no tax, and say overall it’s a 2% effective tax rate. Yes, they use havens to the biggest extent possible, and absolutely fair enough to have a go at that, but to call it an Irish tax break is just the height of nonsense.

These companies employ thousands, pay millions in tax and do lots of business with small Irish businesses. They are fantastic for Ireland. IDA has said in their recent press release that one third of MNCs in Ireland have been here for over 20 years.

Here’s IDA’s latest release on new Ireland wins:

Adesto Technologies Corporation, semiconductors/IOT, have announced plans to partner with the European Space Agency which will see the creation of senior engineering roles in its Cork and Dublin offices.

ARTeSYN, biopharma, plans to expand its operations in Waterford by adding 50 new roles in Production, Engineering, Customer Service and Research & Development

EJ, access solutions, new production facility in Birr, Co. Offaly

Elavon, card payment solutions, has invested in its office, making Arklow, Co. Wicklow a mini Fintech hub in Ireland

Eurofins, life sciences, new Software Engineering Centre in Leopardstown, creation of 150 high-tech jobs

Fort Wayne Metals, medical devices manufacturer, new €10m manufacturing facility in Castlebar leading to the creation of 80 new jobs, doubling their current workforce

FundRock, investment fund manager, new office in Limerick employing 30 people with plans to expand this in the future

Huawei, ICT, new Dublin office which will create 100 jobs

Janssen Sciences, part of J&J, expansion of its manufacturing building in Co. Cork which will create 200 new jobs

Liberty Insurance, plans to create over 120 new roles, expanding its operations in Co. Cavan

Otterbox Products, a smartphone cases, Cork new office, up to 100 employees

Overstock, an online retail shopping site, new European base in the IDA business park in Sligo, plans to recruit 20 employees this year

Panasonic Avionics, in-flight entertainment, new repair shop in Dundalk

Patreon, payment platform, new European Headquarters in Dublin, will create 30 new jobs

PublicRelay, analytics firm, to open an office in Cavan which is expected to create 20 new jobs

Travelport, technology company in travel industry, 22 new jobs in their Dublin operations

WuXi Vaccines, biologics technology, plans to build a $240m vaccine production facility in Dundalk which will see the creation of 200 new jobs

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
Elphin loses out again >:(
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 14, 2020, 03:54:51 PM

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Sorry for splitting in two.

Agree completely re encouraging indigenous business and sustainable renewable energy. But that can be done alongside continuing to attract MNCs. Enterprise Ireland has some great supports for Irish businesses.

MNCs pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. “Huge Irish tax breaks” are a complete myth.

Imagine a newspaper report saying Hound earns 100k and pays 50k tax in Ireland. Hound’s brother lives in the Cayman Islands earns 900k and pays no tax. So the Hound brothers have an effective tax rate of 5% and it’s a disgrace!

That’s exactly what the media do with the Googles and Facebooks. They combine their Irish resident company which pays 12.5% tax and their Bermudan or Cayman resident companies that pay no tax, and say overall it’s a 2% effective tax rate. Yes, they use havens to the biggest extent possible, and absolutely fair enough to have a go at that, but to call it an Irish tax break is just the height of nonsense.

These companies employ thousands, pay millions in tax and do lots of business with small Irish businesses. They are fantastic for Ireland. IDA has said in their recent press release that one third of MNCs in Ireland have been here for over 20 years.

Here’s IDA’s latest release on new Ireland wins:

Adesto Technologies Corporation, semiconductors/IOT, have announced plans to partner with the European Space Agency which will see the creation of senior engineering roles in its Cork and Dublin offices.

ARTeSYN, biopharma, plans to expand its operations in Waterford by adding 50 new roles in Production, Engineering, Customer Service and Research & Development

EJ, access solutions, new production facility in Birr, Co. Offaly

Elavon, card payment solutions, has invested in its office, making Arklow, Co. Wicklow a mini Fintech hub in Ireland

Eurofins, life sciences, new Software Engineering Centre in Leopardstown, creation of 150 high-tech jobs

Fort Wayne Metals, medical devices manufacturer, new €10m manufacturing facility in Castlebar leading to the creation of 80 new jobs, doubling their current workforce

FundRock, investment fund manager, new office in Limerick employing 30 people with plans to expand this in the future

Huawei, ICT, new Dublin office which will create 100 jobs

Janssen Sciences, part of J&J, expansion of its manufacturing building in Co. Cork which will create 200 new jobs

Liberty Insurance, plans to create over 120 new roles, expanding its operations in Co. Cavan

Otterbox Products, a smartphone cases, Cork new office, up to 100 employees

Overstock, an online retail shopping site, new European base in the IDA business park in Sligo, plans to recruit 20 employees this year

Panasonic Avionics, in-flight entertainment, new repair shop in Dundalk

Patreon, payment platform, new European Headquarters in Dublin, will create 30 new jobs

PublicRelay, analytics firm, to open an office in Cavan which is expected to create 20 new jobs

Travelport, technology company in travel industry, 22 new jobs in their Dublin operations

WuXi Vaccines, biologics technology, plans to build a $240m vaccine production facility in Dundalk which will see the creation of 200 new jobs


I would wager that half of those wouldve happened without any IDA intervention. The company work for hired 100 people last year, nothing to do with the IDA, all to do with increased sales.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: mouview on January 14, 2020, 03:56:22 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

FG 45
FF 43
Lab 12
SF 15
Green 17
Lefties 4
Indies  rest

The country is trína chéile

Really, the safest bet would be a FG/FF coalition if both could hold their noses and do it. Any other combination is leaving us at the mercy of a cabal of lefties/republicans/greens and other head-the-balls, none of whom would provide us with the political stability we need for the turbulent few years ahead. FG still the safest bet anyway, no matter what you might think.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 04:15:26 PM

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Sorry for splitting in two.

Agree completely re encouraging indigenous business and sustainable renewable energy. But that can be done alongside continuing to attract MNCs. Enterprise Ireland has some great supports for Irish businesses.

MNCs pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. “Huge Irish tax breaks” are a complete myth.

Imagine a newspaper report saying Hound earns 100k and pays 50k tax in Ireland. Hound’s brother lives in the Cayman Islands earns 900k and pays no tax. So the Hound brothers have an effective tax rate of 5% and it’s a disgrace!

That’s exactly what the media do with the Googles and Facebooks. They combine their Irish resident company which pays 12.5% tax and their Bermudan or Cayman resident companies that pay no tax, and say overall it’s a 2% effective tax rate. Yes, they use havens to the biggest extent possible, and absolutely fair enough to have a go at that, but to call it an Irish tax break is just the height of nonsense.

These companies employ thousands, pay millions in tax and do lots of business with small Irish businesses. They are fantastic for Ireland. IDA has said in their recent press release that one third of MNCs in Ireland have been here for over 20 years.

Here’s IDA’s latest release on new Ireland wins:

Adesto Technologies Corporation, semiconductors/IOT, have announced plans to partner with the European Space Agency which will see the creation of senior engineering roles in its Cork and Dublin offices.

ARTeSYN, biopharma, plans to expand its operations in Waterford by adding 50 new roles in Production, Engineering, Customer Service and Research & Development

EJ, access solutions, new production facility in Birr, Co. Offaly

Elavon, card payment solutions, has invested in its office, making Arklow, Co. Wicklow a mini Fintech hub in Ireland

Eurofins, life sciences, new Software Engineering Centre in Leopardstown, creation of 150 high-tech jobs

Fort Wayne Metals, medical devices manufacturer, new €10m manufacturing facility in Castlebar leading to the creation of 80 new jobs, doubling their current workforce

FundRock, investment fund manager, new office in Limerick employing 30 people with plans to expand this in the future

Huawei, ICT, new Dublin office which will create 100 jobs

Janssen Sciences, part of J&J, expansion of its manufacturing building in Co. Cork which will create 200 new jobs

Liberty Insurance, plans to create over 120 new roles, expanding its operations in Co. Cavan

Otterbox Products, a smartphone cases, Cork new office, up to 100 employees

Overstock, an online retail shopping site, new European base in the IDA business park in Sligo, plans to recruit 20 employees this year

Panasonic Avionics, in-flight entertainment, new repair shop in Dundalk

Patreon, payment platform, new European Headquarters in Dublin, will create 30 new jobs

PublicRelay, analytics firm, to open an office in Cavan which is expected to create 20 new jobs

Travelport, technology company in travel industry, 22 new jobs in their Dublin operations

WuXi Vaccines, biologics technology, plans to build a $240m vaccine production facility in Dundalk which will see the creation of 200 new jobs


The sun doesn't shine out of their arses, Hound. They bring benefits but at the expense of the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is fine when things are calm and then falls into crisis. An economy more focused on local needs might be more resilient. 

 “The high relative openness of the Irish economy does, however, leave it more exposed to changes and shocks in global demand"

Between 08 and 2011 the economy contracted by 12%
Unemployment went to 15% in 2011
Net emigration restarted.

Next time will be even worse. 
 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 04:19:21 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

FG 45
FF 43
Lab 12
SF 15
Green 17
Lefties 4
Indies  rest

The country is trína chéile

Really, the safest bet would be a FG/FF coalition if both could hold their noses and do it. Any other combination is leaving us at the mercy of a cabal of lefties/republicans/greens and other head-the-balls, none of whom would provide us with the political stability we need for the turbulent few years ahead. FG still the safest bet anyway, no matter what you might think.

Safety is relative, Mo.
They are all groupthinkers. 
They have no idea what is coming down the tracks.

Even the idea that it is safe to have an election because Brexit is sorted out is debatable
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2020, 04:35:46 PM
The sun doesn't shine out of their arses, Hound. They bring benefits but at the expense of the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is fine when things are calm and then falls into crisis. An economy more focused on local needs might be more resilient. 

 “The high relative openness of the Irish economy does, however, leave it more exposed to changes and shocks in global demand"

Between 08 and 2011 the economy contracted by 12%
Unemployment went to 15% in 2011
Net emigration restarted.

Next time will be even worse.

I don't follow the logic.

>> If you aren't exporting then you are f**ked long term. Would you have the ROI become an economic basket case like NI?
>> Having a diverse multinational industry base is more resilient than packing your eggs into relatively few local baskets. Explain how an economy "more focused on local needs might be more resilient"* - unless you mean 'cos its shite in the "good times" its just a bit more shite in the bad times?
>> The economy here contracted so much due the finance industry. That was a problem made of our own greed and cute hoors being too cute for their own good.

*and explain what that even means.


I agree entirely that a multinational selling something to someone in Ireland should pay no less tax than a local shop/factory for selling that same thing. Beyond that, I've no issue with the multinationals as long as they aren't in the business of exploitation elsewhere.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 05:14:56 PM
The sun doesn't shine out of their arses, Hound. They bring benefits but at the expense of the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is fine when things are calm and then falls into crisis. An economy more focused on local needs might be more resilient. 

 “The high relative openness of the Irish economy does, however, leave it more exposed to changes and shocks in global demand"

Between 08 and 2011 the economy contracted by 12%
Unemployment went to 15% in 2011
Net emigration restarted.

Next time will be even worse.

I don't follow the logic.

>> If you aren't exporting then you are f**ked long term. Would you have the ROI become an economic basket case like NI?
>> Having a diverse multinational industry base is more resilient than packing your eggs into relatively few local baskets. Explain how an economy "more focused on local needs might be more resilient"* - unless you mean 'cos its shite in the "good times" its just a bit more shite in the bad times?
>> The economy here contracted so much due the finance industry. That was a problem made of our own greed and cute hoors being too cute for their own good.

*and explain what that even means.


I agree entirely that a multinational selling something to someone in Ireland should pay no less tax than a local shop/factory for selling that same thing. Beyond that, I've no issue with the multinationals as long as they aren't in the business of exploitation elsewhere.

The whole economic model is the problem. There is too much downside risk and not enough investment in strengthening the local economy.
Very few Irish companies develop scale. They tend to be sold off. Why ?
Why do we keep on coming back to property bubbles ?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 05:19:23 PM
Love it hate the Multis at least they kept an economy going from 2008 to 2014 during the collapse of  the FF/PD neoliberal unreal economy of lending each other money to buy houses from each other to rent to the Polush lads building the houses.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 14, 2020, 05:27:25 PM
The whole economic model is the problem. There is too much downside risk and not enough investment in strengthening the local economy.
Very few Irish companies develop scale. They tend to be sold off. Why ?
Why do we keep on coming back to property bubbles ?

Too small a country, not enough wealth in it, and too much tax on new wealth creation, especially when you consider the risk of losing everything if it goes haywire.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2020, 05:33:20 PM
The whole economic model is the problem. There is too much downside risk and not enough investment in strengthening the local economy.

Your dodging my main question.

Again - 'Explain how an economy "more focused on local needs might be more resilient"*

*and explain what that even means.'


Very few Irish companies develop scale. They tend to be sold off. Why ?

Many reasons:
- no desire for the stress of expanding
- happy with their lot
- unsure of challenge of expanding
- don't have sufficient cash to expand in the means necessary and maintain security


Why do we keep on coming back to property bubbles ?

'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: LooseCannon on January 14, 2020, 05:45:42 PM
Elphin loses out again >:(

It’d be an ideal location for Apple, with the Orchard there and all....!






Provided the gobshites in Wicklow stay quiet.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 14, 2020, 06:39:27 PM
'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.

Dublin prices haven't bounced back either, being 30% below 2007. That is 30% less that they are likely to fall.
Banks maybe greedy, but the Central Bank does not allow them throw money at you nowadays.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: tyrone08 on January 14, 2020, 06:58:51 PM
'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.

Dublin prices haven't bounced back either, being 30% below 2007. That is 30% less that they are likely to fall.
Banks maybe greedy, but the Central Bank does not allow them throw money at you nowadays.

See a report on housing the other day which showed rental prices in Dublin were roughly 200 euro higher than in 2008. I assume its true but that is crazy.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 07:36:20 PM
'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.

Dublin prices haven't bounced back either, being 30% below 2007. That is 30% less that they are likely to fall.
Banks maybe greedy, but the Central Bank does not allow them throw money at you nowadays.

It’s another property bubble driven by ultra low interest rates

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2019/

« Dublin residential property prices are 21.3% lower than their February 2007 peak, »

Rates will go up when banks crash again.
Banks are strictly regulated but shadow banks are not.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 07:59:48 PM
Elphin loses out again >:(

It’d be an ideal location for Apple, with the Orchard there and all....!






Provided the gobshites in Wicklow stay quiet.

😆😆😆

Th'oul windmill would never be able to power it!
Anyway it's full speed ahead on the media with hours of nonstop waffle.
Godhelpus only 25 more days of it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: oneflewoverthecuckoonest on January 15, 2020, 12:42:34 AM
to save you the drama, and you can take this to paddypower and earn from it.

ff a minimum of 50
fg a maximum of 42....will be savaged in rural seats.
independents will surprise again, 25+

sf about 18/19
labour may return with 7...lose a couple and gain elsewhere
aontu 1...peadar retains.
greens a max of 10.

big name casualties....eoghan murphy(nap...one of the two fgs in DBS will lose and kate o Connell could be more transfer friendly), Regina Doherty,  and in my own heartland, Charlie Tanagan is in trouble as FG might only take 1 of the 5 and the territorial make up of Laois/Offaly does not favour him.

on the gaa front, the new chairman of Louth, Peter Fitz could prove a surprise packet and return again as an independent and confound the pundits who are dismissing him.


and in case Seafoid is asking, the above prediction is neutral because no party in Ireland represent my politics, the governing PIS party in Poland is my currency. My vote will therefore be going to a GAA man and Offaly Indo John Leahy, a man with the balls to question the new plantation of Ireland.


Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 15, 2020, 01:27:22 AM
A xenophobic Gobsh1te.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 15, 2020, 05:29:36 AM
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/kathy-sheridan-election-will-expose-fault-lines-in-irish-democracy-1.4139648

« As we go into election mode, this country is more fragile than we imagined.

Good luck to all the decent ones who dream of something better. »
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 15, 2020, 09:50:14 AM
This from a now defunct blog called comharsdc.ie written in 2010

"Support politicians who are willing to read, to understand complexity, and the tradeoffs involved, and to communicate choices and decisions effectively.
There is a tendency in all democracies to disparage the ‘political class’ and to deride all politicians as being simultaneously venal, incompetent and dishonest."
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 09:57:17 AM
to save you the drama, and you can take this to paddypower and earn from it.

ff a minimum of 50
fg a maximum of 42....will be savaged in rural seats.
independents will surprise again, 25+

sf about 18/19
labour may return with 7...lose a couple and gain elsewhere
aontu 1...peadar retains.
greens a max of 10.

big name casualties....eoghan murphy(nap...one of the two fgs in DBS will lose and kate o Connell could be more transfer friendly), Regina Doherty,  and in my own heartland, Charlie Tanagan is in trouble as FG might only take 1 of the 5 and the territorial make up of Laois/Offaly does not favour him.

on the gaa front, the new chairman of Louth, Peter Fitz could prove a surprise packet and return again as an independent and confound the pundits who are dismissing him.


and in case Seafoid is asking, the above prediction is neutral because no party in Ireland represent my politics, the governing PIS party in Poland is my currency. My vote will therefore be going to a GAA man and Offaly Indo John Leahy, a man with the balls to question the new plantation of Ireland.


You need to grow up and take a look at yourself if you think this is an issue or even real. Seriously.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Angelo on January 15, 2020, 10:35:50 AM
EOH spot on here, for a change.


https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/eilis-ohanlon-spare-me-the-sanctimony-of-the-south-ric-commemoration-controversy-shows-theyre-as-tribal-as-northern-ireland-38862544.html
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 15, 2020, 10:46:19 AM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee. 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 11:29:13 AM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee.


People should be voting Green as they're the only one who seem to get the climate crisis.

I suspect there are a lot of ex-FF supporters who will be emboldened to return to FF after Leo and co's shenanigans - homelessness and the health service being at all time lows when "the economy has never been better". Never mind the recent commemoration fiasco. Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 15, 2020, 11:53:03 AM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee.


People should be voting Green as they're the only one who seem to get the climate crisis.

I suspect there are a lot of ex-FF supporters who will be emboldened to return to FF after Leo and co's shenanigans - homelessness and the health service being at all time lows when "the economy has never been better". Never mind the recent commemoration fiasco. Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

Not sure why that is a negative Seanie. He forced Boris into a border in the Irish Sea, and the closest the island has come to economic integration in our lifetime. Boris got elected, cast DUP adrift, and quickly copperfastened the deal.. That to me was one of the best performances by a Taoiseach on the international stage. It should not be forgotten that the health and housing crisis have their origins in the last FF government, or have we forgotten. FG have made a very poor fist at fixing but not easy fix Martin’s creation no matter what money you throw at.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 12:10:47 PM
Climate change always happens. The current panic will attract votes for the Greens from gullible youngsters who haven't seen it all before, along with disaffected leftwingers attracted by their watermelon politics.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 12:17:21 PM

big name casualties....eoghan murphy(nap...one of the two fgs in DBS will lose and kate o Connell could be more transfer friendly), Regina Doherty,  and in my own heartland, Charlie Tanagan is in trouble as FG might only take 1 of the 5 and the territorial make up of Laois/Offaly does not favour him.


I expect both Eoghan Murphy and Regina Doherty to lose.

Murphy's constituency (the old Dublin South East) has form in kicking out underperforming Ministers.

Helen McEntee is losing a big part of her catchment area to Cavan-Monaghan and should in theory be in bother but the McEntee brand is strong in Meath and that will I think squeeze Doherty.

I know nothing about Charlie Flanagan's chances but he did lose his seat before and Laois and Offaly have a seat less this time.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 15, 2020, 01:41:13 PM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee.


People should be voting Green as they're the only one who seem to get the climate crisis.

I suspect there are a lot of ex-FF supporters who will be emboldened to return to FF after Leo and co's shenanigans - homelessness and the health service being at all time lows when "the economy has never been better". Never mind the recent commemoration fiasco. Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

I fundamentally disagree with this point. Foe example, the quickest way to reduce emissions in Nuclear but will the greens even consider that? No. So they have their own little ideology and I think that they will be the last people to make a real change. Look at the balls they made out of car tax (emissions vrs engine size vre 2008), what sort of f**k acting was that.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 01:46:33 PM
Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

The idea that Varadkar won Johnson a landslide 80-seats majority is funny.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 02:14:59 PM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee.


People should be voting Green as they're the only one who seem to get the climate crisis.

I suspect there are a lot of ex-FF supporters who will be emboldened to return to FF after Leo and co's shenanigans - homelessness and the health service being at all time lows when "the economy has never been better". Never mind the recent commemoration fiasco. Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

I fundamentally disagree with this point. Foe example, the quickest way to reduce emissions in Nuclear but will the greens even consider that? No. So they have their own little ideology and I think that they will be the last people to make a real change. Look at the balls they made out of car tax (emissions vrs engine size vre 2008), what sort of f**k acting was that.


Can you work out why they'd be against it?

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 02:15:59 PM
Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

The idea that Varadkar won Johnson a landslide 80-seats majority is funny.


You clearly can't read.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 02:17:37 PM
Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

The idea that Varadkar won Johnson a landslide 80-seats majority is funny.


You clearly can't read.
I can. The idea that Johnson, with a groundswell of support behind him across the country, ever needed a 'lifeline' is funny too.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 02:20:43 PM

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.

Most predictions of global environmental catastrophe never come to pass. The next actual catastrophe will probably be an Ice Age. Hopefully it won't happen until we're all long gone.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 15, 2020, 02:29:25 PM
"Fivepoints" seems to be the new Syferus with his nonsense.
What Country had Johnson a groundswell of support in?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
"Fivepoints" seems to be the new Syferus with his nonsense.
What Country had Johnson a groundswell of support in?

I've been here almost as long as you sunshine.

England, and Wales. 2 countries.  8)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: oneflewoverthecuckoonest on January 15, 2020, 03:09:54 PM
Five points there is no point debating with most of the posters here...they are all globalists of the Labour London brand. Their poster boy in the upcoming election is Amadan O Riordain, naturally the last person I want to see win a seat.

On the Green Party....they do have genuine environmental issues....alas most of the global issues stem from shoddy practices in the likes of China and Asian countries where they have the sweat shops and pollute freely to produce goods for Western consumers.
However if you scratch under the surface of the Greens you find too many anomalies.
The Greens have pushed successfully with their bed fellows, An Taisce, to  get the peat powered stations closed in the midlands.  These stations were a lifeline to rural midlands communities providing solid jobs. The 12-15% of power these stations supplied to the national grid is lost....and what is it being replaced by? power from France, and that power is nuclear produced.  So the Greens want Peat stations closed and they will take the replacement from elsewhere and like real NIMBY's as long as the nuclear is not Irish, they will accept it.

The second big flaw in the Green case is attached to population and demographics. Obviously if you have a world population booming to record levels, especially rising to unprecedented levels in third world countries, then the extra bodies need more resources to be produced to fuel them and there is then extra demands on the environment. Now much of the population growth indirectly can be blamed on the advance in science, because medical advancement now translates to child/infant mortality rates reduced significantly and hence populations figures mushrooming.  Many of these poorer countries cannot sustain the level of population growth....in a cold way, one could reason the populations need to be capped......what is the Greens answer to this taxing issue?...not a dickie  bird about the record demographics, instead we have the Greens in the EU advancing their Globalist theory, that wealthy European countries should help out these poorer African/Asian nations and take in the excess, and with birth rates within European countries of the natives very low, the big game in town with the Greens is the great replacement.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 15, 2020, 03:12:38 PM

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.

Most predictions of global environmental catastrophe never come to pass. The next actual catastrophe will probably be an Ice Age. Hopefully it won't happen until we're all long gone.

That sounds like Fianna Fail in 2007. 
Climate change is already happening
Even the Murdoch family get it.

https://www.ft.com/content/e2311db0-36f6-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
James Murdoch has criticised his father’s news outlets for promoting false scepticism about climate change as deadly bushfires tear across Australia, the original home of Rupert Murdoch’s news empire. In a pointed joint statement aiming to highlight their deep unhappiness with the coverage, James and his wife Kathryn took aim at conservative News Corp outlets in Australia for their “ongoing denial” of global warming.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 03:18:47 PM

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.

Most predictions of global environmental catastrophe never come to pass. The next actual catastrophe will probably be an Ice Age. Hopefully it won't happen until we're all long gone.

That sounds like Fianna Fail in 2007. 

Fianna Fáil in 2007 pushed the climate scam for all that it was worth. That's why the Greens joined them in government. It didn't end well.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eamonnca1 on January 15, 2020, 04:39:16 PM

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.

Most predictions of global environmental catastrophe never come to pass. The next actual catastrophe will probably be an Ice Age. Hopefully it won't happen until we're all long gone.

Perhaps you refer to the damage to the ozone layer that was repaired by the Montreal Protocol which phased out CFCs. Hardly an argument against concerted global action to save the environment.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eamonnca1 on January 15, 2020, 04:42:07 PM
to save you the drama, and you can take this to paddypower and earn from it.

ff a minimum of 50
fg a maximum of 42....will be savaged in rural seats.
independents will surprise again, 25+

sf about 18/19
labour may return with 7...lose a couple and gain elsewhere
aontu 1...peadar retains.
greens a max of 10.

big name casualties....eoghan murphy(nap...one of the two fgs in DBS will lose and kate o Connell could be more transfer friendly), Regina Doherty,  and in my own heartland, Charlie Tanagan is in trouble as FG might only take 1 of the 5 and the territorial make up of Laois/Offaly does not favour him.

on the gaa front, the new chairman of Louth, Peter Fitz could prove a surprise packet and return again as an independent and confound the pundits who are dismissing him.


and in case Seafoid is asking, the above prediction is neutral because no party in Ireland represent my politics, the governing PIS party in Poland is my currency. My vote will therefore be going to a GAA man and Offaly Indo John Leahy, a man with the balls to question the new plantation of Ireland.

Is Foxxkkk back?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 15, 2020, 04:43:21 PM

Perhaps you refer to the damage to the ozone layer that was repaired by the Montreal Protocol which phased out CFCs. Hardly an argument against concerted global action to save the environment.

Millenarianism has been around a lot longer than the 1980s.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eamonnca1 on January 15, 2020, 04:52:46 PM
And...?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 15, 2020, 04:54:36 PM
There's no point arguing with climate crisis deniers and racists. 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: J70 on January 15, 2020, 05:05:36 PM
"Fivepoints" seems to be the new Syferus with his nonsense.
What Country had Johnson a groundswell of support in?

Syferus didn’t come out with the type of mindless, right wing nonsense five points does.

More likely to be foxcommander. Similar style and all. Just needs the anti-black posts to cement it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eamonnca1 on January 15, 2020, 07:15:52 PM
"Fivepoints" seems to be the new Syferus with his nonsense.
What Country had Johnson a groundswell of support in?

Syferus didn’t come out with the type of mindless, right wing nonsense five points does.

More likely to be foxcommander. Similar style and all. Just needs the anti-black posts to cement it.

We'll see if he develops an obsession with me. That'll be a give-away.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: LooseCannon on January 15, 2020, 08:49:51 PM
to save you the drama, and you can take this to paddypower and earn from it.

ff a minimum of 50
fg a maximum of 42....will be savaged in rural seats.
independents will surprise again, 25+

sf about 18/19
labour may return with 7...lose a couple and gain elsewhere
aontu 1...peadar retains.
greens a max of 10.

big name casualties....eoghan murphy(nap...one of the two fgs in DBS will lose and kate o Connell could be more transfer friendly), Regina Doherty,  and in my own heartland, Charlie Tanagan is in trouble as FG might only take 1 of the 5 and the territorial make up of Laois/Offaly does not favour him.

on the gaa front, the new chairman of Louth, Peter Fitz could prove a surprise packet and return again as an independent and confound the pundits who are dismissing him.


and in case Seafoid is asking, the above prediction is neutral because no party in Ireland represent my politics, the governing PIS party in Poland is my currency. My vote will therefore be going to a GAA man and Offaly Indo John Leahy, a man with the balls to question the new plantation of Ireland.


Leahy, LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Ask any of the hurlers from the glory days what they think of him. It’d say a lot.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 15, 2020, 09:21:28 PM
Climate change is happening so I would expect a lot of younger people to vote for the Greens.
I really wonder if enough voters are prepared to forgive FF for 2008 and the bank guarantee.


People should be voting Green as they're the only one who seem to get the climate crisis.

I suspect there are a lot of ex-FF supporters who will be emboldened to return to FF after Leo and co's shenanigans - homelessness and the health service being at all time lows when "the economy has never been better". Never mind the recent commemoration fiasco. Must also be remembered, Varadkar facilitated Johnson's re-election. He allowed him a lifeline when he was "dead in a ditch" by agreeing to a new deal. This has been lost on many people but it should be noted. Varadkar is pretty much a Tory.

I fundamentally disagree with this point. Foe example, the quickest way to reduce emissions in Nuclear but will the greens even consider that? No. So they have their own little ideology and I think that they will be the last people to make a real change. Look at the balls they made out of car tax (emissions vrs engine size vre 2008), what sort of f**k acting was that.


Can you work out why they'd be against it?

"their own little ideology" - this is scientific fact. If you don't accept science that's your prerogative but in my opinion it's not a very tenable position. I for one do not want to leave my kids in a world that is irretrievably damaged which is what will happen if we don't act now. Ignorance is no defense. The facts are out there.

I never denied the science, I stated my opinion that greens have their own little ideology which includes refusing to switch to a clean proven technology like nuclear. It's not about being green, it's about being green their way. In addition they are totally city centric and have no clue of the reality of life outside the cities.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 05:01:52 AM
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-parties-react-to-injury-of-homeless-man-in-dublin-1.4140360


Another confident prediction. Odran Flynn, psephologist (numbers nerd to me and you) has been on Pat Kenny's show on Newstalk predicting the Greens will win a seat in every Dublin constituency with the exception of Dublin North West. That would more or less tally with my own prediction. I have them winning seats in all Dublin constituencies, bar Dublin North West and Dublin Mid West. Former Green Paul Gogarty, now an Independent, has acted as a barrier there.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: yellowcard on January 16, 2020, 09:52:51 AM
This election will be very interesting in terms of what it tells us about Irish society. FG's record on issue's such as health, housing and crime has been woeful and they are probably the most right wing Irish government that I can remember. Also more PR bull and spin doctoring than I care to remember. I hope that people vote with their conscience to correct the ills in society as a whole rather than simply thinking about their own pockets.

The alternative is FF who have their own recent history of overseeing the financial crash and running the economy into the ground. They have never really recovered from that and I think Micheal Martin is a particularly poor leader and it would be a huge leap of faith to put them back into government.

It looks like Hobsons choice in terms of which is the ruling party in government.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 16, 2020, 10:38:28 AM
Exactly, the next Government will be led by either FF or FG (as had been in effect since 1922).
A higher proportion of well heeled and comfortable people vote. Those people will have Health insurance and their only interactions with the Public Health system will be if a family member needs to go to A&E.
So the health issue wont sway them.
Those who are parents of 20 somethings and live in cities/commuter belts will see the effects of the housing crisis and could be tempted to vote left of centre -if only we had a decent left of centre party.
The Greens probably see themselves as that Party but how many houses would they get built as they tilt at Climate windmills.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eire90 on January 16, 2020, 11:07:47 AM
People will vote for ff fg again and the shinners are a bunch of rats too.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 16, 2020, 11:12:38 AM
"Fivepoints" seems to be the new Syferus with his nonsense.
What Country had Johnson a groundswell of support in?

Syferus didn’t come out with the type of mindless, right wing nonsense five points does.

More likely to be foxcommander. Similar style and all. Just needs the anti-black posts to cement it.

We'll see if he develops an obsession with me. That'll be a give-away.

I've been here longer than you and I've managed to more or less totally ignore your ramblings for almost a decade now.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 11:14:53 AM
People will vote for ff fg again and the shinners are a bunch of rats too.
FF and FG have no answers to healthcare, house prices or homelessness.
Business as usual doesn’t work at the moment.
5% of people own 40% of everything.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 16, 2020, 11:20:33 AM
People will vote for ff fg again and the shinners are a bunch of rats too.
FF and FG have no answers to healthcare, house prices or homelessness.
Business as usual doesn’t work at the moment.
5% of people own 40% of everything.

The political class including Labour, SF and the Greens and independents broadly agree with FF and FG on healthcare and the housing/homelessness disaster. That's why none will propose mass admin redundancies in the HSE for example or a huge private building programme to restore the housing stock relative to population that we had a decade ago.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 16, 2020, 11:52:02 AM
Private building is done by private builders who charge as much as they can get away with (naturally enough).
What's needed is a Public building programme (tendered to builders) on Public/NAMA lands of houses for sale at cost plus admin fee  and/or Tenant purchase scheme with rents set to cover the cost over 30 years.
Credit Unions have about €4 Bn lying around which theyd love to lend to the Stare/NAMA for 18 months to get the houses built.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: RadioGAAGAA on January 16, 2020, 12:25:41 PM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 16, 2020, 12:27:09 PM
At an optimistic unit cost of €250k per unit, 4 billion would build 16,000 houses, a drop in the ocean.

We need to get back to building at least 50,000 units a year.  I don't care who builds them, and no matter who does tradesmen, engineers and managers are going to charge top dollar anyway. Either way if the State takes on to do it, it is going to struggle to borrow the sort of money that is needed. That's why I suggest a private building programme.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 16, 2020, 12:34:14 PM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

The old kulak fallacy. A young tech graduate with big borrowings and no arse in his trousers has a current and lifetime earnings capacity that dwarfs his country uncle living on a 100 acre farm with a paper value of a million euro. When he gets to 60, he'll own the uncle's farm, it'll still be worth a million on paper and won't be able to turn a cent in actual income.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 16, 2020, 01:36:36 PM
At an optimistic unit cost of €250k per unit, 4 billion would build 16,000 houses, a drop in the ocean.

We need to get back to building at least 50,000 units a year.  I don't care who builds them, and no matter who does tradesmen, engineers and managers are going to charge top dollar anyway. Either way if the State takes on to do it, it is going to struggle to borrow the sort of money that is needed. That's why I suggest a private building programme.

Who will build them? That is the question. What people forget is that after the last economic collapse (courtesy of FF and Greens and Irish banks), the building business died and many of the tradesmen if not most had to emigrate. As a country we also became anti-builder (thanks to many of the cowboys who were in the business, the poor planning by councillors and banks that would give a dog a mortgage if he walked in asking for one). We also are of course anti-landlord (which is a word with negative connotations in Ireland to begin with, but we talk of modern day landlords as if they are the English gentry with their foot on the neck of tenants). Contrast with a city like New York where builders/developers are minor celebrities, indeed one of them is President. They can be gobshites too. But they don't have to put up with the negativity that attaches to them in Ireland and both luxury and low income housing is developed at a rapid scale - throughout the whole country. If you want to solve the housing crisis - you actually got to be nice to the "creators." We are not but we expect buildings and housing to spring up in the same way some husbands expect clean socks to magically appear in his sock drawer every morning.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 01:48:58 PM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
95% of people own 60% of everything VS 99% OF people own 60% of everything. Not much of  difference
It's all going to collapse. 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 16, 2020, 01:54:05 PM
At an optimistic unit cost of €250k per unit, 4 billion would build 16,000 houses, a drop in the ocean.

We need to get back to building at least 50,000 units a year.  I don't care who builds them, and no matter who does tradesmen, engineers and managers are going to charge top dollar anyway. Either way if the State takes on to do it, it is going to struggle to borrow the sort of money that is needed. That's why I suggest a private building programme.

Who will build them? That is the question. What people forget is that after the last economic collapse (courtesy of FF and Greens and Irish banks), the building business died and many of the tradesmen if not most had to emigrate. As a country we also became anti-builder (thanks to many of the cowboys who were in the business, the poor planning by councillors and banks that would give a dog a mortgage if he walked in asking for one). We also are of course anti-landlord (which is a word with negative connotations in Ireland to begin with, but we talk of modern day landlords as if they are the English gentry with their foot on the neck of tenants). Contrast with a city like New York where builders/developers are minor celebrities, indeed one of them is President. They can be gobshites too. But they don't have to put up with the negativity that attaches to them in Ireland and both luxury and low income housing is developed at a rapid scale - throughout the whole country. If you want to solve the housing crisis - you actually got to be nice to the "creators." We are not but we expect buildings and housing to spring up in the same way some husbands expect clean socks to magically appear in his sock drawer every morning.

You are of course correct. We are in a hole of our own making.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 16, 2020, 03:59:02 PM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
95% of people own 60% of everything VS 99% OF people own 60% of everything. Not much of  difference
It's all going to collapse.

The statistics are misleading.

The CSO figures state that 21% of the Irish population in 2018 was under 14 years old. They own nothing. Another 12% was between 15 and 24. Very few of them own anything.

So already 33% own nothing and the remaining 67% own everything.

Only 38% of Irish people are aged over 44. Most people don't have their mortgages paid off by age 44. That's 62% of the population.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: RadioGAAGAA on January 16, 2020, 03:59:59 PM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
95% of people own 60% of everything VS 99% OF people own 60% of everything. Not much of  difference
It's all going to collapse.

Its actually quite a large difference.

In the US, 5% of people own ~65% of everything.

Unless you think that ~25% wealth difference for that 4%of people in Ireland is insignificant?


Now, is it fair? Nope.
Does it need better distribution? Yep.
Are executives paid too much given their abilities? Absolutely.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 16, 2020, 06:05:18 PM
5% of people own 40% of everything.

If that is true, that is relatively progressive compared to some other places!

For contrast, in the USA, 1% of people own 40% of everything.
95% of people own 60% of everything VS 99% OF people own 60% of everything. Not much of  difference
It's all going to collapse.

Its actually quite a large difference.

In the US, 5% of people own ~65% of everything.

Unless you think that ~25% wealth difference for that 4%of people in Ireland is insignificant?


Now, is it fair? Nope.
Does it need better distribution? Yep.
Are executives paid too much given their abilities? Absolutely.
It’s one of the reasons RTÉ is in trouble
Demand is about the 100%
It’s just not sustainable.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: thejuice on January 18, 2020, 09:15:02 PM
Anyone know if Irish citizens abroad can do a postal vote. I’ve lived in England since 2003. Not entirely clear on the websites I’ve read but I’m sure you used to be able to do this.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Tatler Jack on January 18, 2020, 09:22:54 PM
Anyone know if Irish citizens abroad can do a postal vote. I’ve lived in England since 2003. Not entirely clear on the websites I’ve read but I’m sure you used to be able to do this.

No. Irish people abroad cannot vote in elections unless they are registered to vote in Ireland and return to vote. There is no provision for postal voting.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Ambrose on January 18, 2020, 11:41:07 PM
Anyone know if Irish citizens abroad can do a postal vote. I’ve lived in England since 2003. Not entirely clear on the websites I’ve read but I’m sure you used to be able to do this.

No. Irish people abroad cannot vote in elections unless they are registered to vote in Ireland and return to vote. There is no provision for postal voting.

Most voters have to vote in person at an official voting centre. However, you may be eligible for a postal vote if you are:

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/elections_and_referenda/voting/registering_to_vote.html
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: trailer on January 19, 2020, 09:12:00 AM
Anyone know any company’s who could erect a tent at the Galway races for hospitality purposes?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Sportacus on January 19, 2020, 11:30:57 AM
My picture from the outside looking in is that Leo is generally good on EU, has got NI up and running again and has a logical view on how we move towards unity, and the economy is growing strongly, so tell me, what is at the heart of the election: homelessness; inequality; public services?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: manfromdelmonte on January 19, 2020, 11:39:13 AM
My picture from the outside looking in is that Leo is generally good on EU, has got NI up and running again and has a logical view on how we move towards unity, and the economy is growing strongly, so tell me, what is at the heart of the election: homelessness; inequality; public services?
Housing
Health
Childcare costs
Insurance costs
Jobs outside Dublin
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Sportacus on January 19, 2020, 11:44:45 AM
Thanks
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Sportacus on January 19, 2020, 11:53:23 AM
And gangs?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: manfromdelmonte on January 19, 2020, 01:08:37 PM
And gangs?
Yeah. Has really come into focus this week.
All fueled by citizens putting white stuff up their noses
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: yellowcard on January 19, 2020, 01:27:03 PM
Latest poll which is the first carried out since December:

FF....................32%................+5
FG...................20%.................-7
SF...................19%..................-1
Green.............7%...................+1
Labour............4%...................-2
Ind Alliance.....3%...................+1
Other...............15%..................+3

That is some drop off for FG in the space of a month, their campaign has got off to a disastrous start. The Black and Tans episode, the homeless man getting hit by a forklift in a tent and the Drogheda feud will all have played a part. This particular government have relied a lot on spin doctoring and PR but people are starting to see through the bull and are judging them on their actual record on health, homelessness and crime which is brutal. I'm not surprised that FF are ahead in the polls but I am surprised at just how far because it is not down to Micheal Martin's leadership or direction but simply because FG have shot themselves in the foot and FF are seen as the only other viable alternative. Are people ready for another FF led government, it would be some form of redemption long before many people would have anticipated it a few years back. 

Both parties have already ruled out government with SF so really SF are just playing for how many seats they can gain whilst the continued decline of the Labour party is the other big talking point. 

 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 19, 2020, 02:04:14 PM
I think that poll was done before the GE was called around the time of the RIC nonsense.
Hard to see the Shinners getting that percentage in a real election.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: marty34 on January 19, 2020, 02:35:32 PM
Latest poll which is the first carried out since December:

FF....................32%................+5
FG...................20%.................-7
SF...................19%..................-1
Green.............7%...................+1
Labour............4%...................-2
Ind Alliance.....3%...................+1
Other...............15%..................+3

That is some drop off for FG in the space of a month, their campaign has got off to a disastrous start. The Black and Tans episode, the homeless man getting hit by a forklift in a tent and the Drogheda feud will all have played a part. This particular government have relied a lot on spin doctoring and PR but people are starting to see through the bull and are judging them on their actual record on health, homelessness and crime which is brutal. I'm not surprised that FF are ahead in the polls but I am surprised at just how far because it is not down to Micheal Martin's leadership or direction but simply because FG have shot themselves in the foot and FF are seen as the only other viable alternative. Are people ready for another FF led government, it would be some form of redemption long before many people would have anticipated it a few years back. 

Both parties have already ruled out government with SF so really SF are just playing for how many seats they can gain whilst the continued decline of the Labour party is the other big talking point.

What's the difference between FF/FG - same side of the same coin in terms of policies.

Homelessness - FG/FF mess.
Health- FG/FF mess.
Gangland warfare - FG/FF mess.
No policy on the environment - FG/FG mess.

Can't get any worse...oh, let's commemorate the Black & Tans!!!

Keep adding to the list.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: yellowcard on January 19, 2020, 02:57:45 PM
I think that poll was done before the GE was called around the time of the RIC nonsense.
Hard to see the Shinners getting that percentage in a real election.

Well if that is the case then it's hard to see how FG will have clawed back any support since then, one faux pas after another. Leo does not look comfortable out meeting the general public unless it is a stage managed event with his own supporters present. If FG manage to lose this election then I reckon Simon Coveney will be waiting in the wings to take over. If FF lose it then Micheal Martin has to go, so the stakes are high. Don't think SF will poll at 19% either, the other parties will have plenty of ammunition on them which will be unleashed as the campaign goes on and things get dirtier.   
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 19, 2020, 04:17:02 PM
Latest poll which is the first carried out since December:

FF....................32%................+5
FG...................20%.................-7
SF...................19%..................-1
Green.............7%...................+1
Labour............4%...................-2
Ind Alliance.....3%...................+1
Other...............15%..................+3

That is some drop off for FG in the space of a month, their campaign has got off to a disastrous start. The Black and Tans episode, the homeless man getting hit by a forklift in a tent and the Drogheda feud will all have played a part. This particular government have relied a lot on spin doctoring and PR but people are starting to see through the bull and are judging them on their actual record on health, homelessness and crime which is brutal. I'm not surprised that FF are ahead in the polls but I am surprised at just how far because it is not down to Micheal Martin's leadership or direction but simply because FG have shot themselves in the foot and FF are seen as the only other viable alternative. Are people ready for another FF led government, it would be some form of redemption long before many people would have anticipated it a few years back. 

Both parties have already ruled out government with SF so really SF are just playing for how many seats they can gain whilst the continued decline of the Labour party is the other big talking point.

Agree Michael Martin is one of the most spineless politicians I've ever come across and is not a leader by any stretch of the imagination. I dont agree on SF just going to win seats as coalition is ruled out - that will never be known until we see how the cards fall after the election.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 19, 2020, 05:56:24 PM
On that poll Fianna Fáil will easily lead next government. But I would not trust if it was done over phone or in-person as during height of Tans controversy, people would be downright embarrassed about saying they were supporting Fine Gael, but the same people who had record money to spend over Christmas in the privacy of polling booth will be mé fein. That is how American pollsters had Hilary so far ahead and got shock of lives when Trump got elected. Would still expect FG to fare badly but it is hard to see people give such a resounding victory to FF. Poor reflection on Mary Lou that they can’t make hay of anti government sentiment.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 19, 2020, 06:08:30 PM
Poor reflection on Mary Lou that they can’t make hay of anti government sentiment.

SF only aim to attract votes from people with the chip on their shoulder, who think that the government is someone else doing something to them. For all their "republicanism" they haven't really bought into the idea that everyone has to contribute to the Republic as well as expecting something from it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: manfromdelmonte on January 19, 2020, 08:50:04 PM
Mary Lou is not liked by most floating voters down here
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: trailer on January 19, 2020, 09:07:16 PM
If you want to vote left wing in ireland just vote Labour. Why vote for SF? A party of thugs and loonies.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 19, 2020, 09:18:18 PM
If you want to vote left wing in ireland just vote Labour. Why vote for SF? A party of thugs and loonies.

Labour left wing. You know nothing if you think that lsd.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 19, 2020, 10:38:38 PM
From my own vox pop, Fine Gael are in trouble. They were elected back in 2011 on the specific premise that they would tidy up the mess left by Fianna Fail and bring probity etc. back into government again.
They have failed miserably and many people have long memories.
Remember the water rates fiasco back in 2014. (I think it was 2014.)
A tsunami pf shite would submerge the country if we didn’t all, like honest citizens, pony up and make Denis Desmond an ever richer man than he already was.
The ferocity of the popular backlash made them back off and , surprise, surprise, we have heard nothing since then about the urgent need for reform of our water supply and wastewater disposal. I am surprised at the number of people who feel sore about this attempted scam.
The €2.2 bn overrun in building the children's’ hospital and the fact that nothing was done to find out who was guilty of this hasn’t gone down well either.
Health, housing, homelessness and Harris were brought up by many I spoke to and the three Murphys came in for a lot of abuse also. If all that wasn’t enough, the way Flanagan and Varadker tried to arrange a commemoration for the RIC was the last straw.
Personally speaking, I won’t be voting FG but I haven’t forgiven FF for what they did to the country either.
Martin is about as capable as Varadker and if he becomes Taoiseah, it will only be because he is slightly the lesser of two eejits.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 19, 2020, 11:08:42 PM
Either Leo or Micheál will be the next Taoiseach.
About the only question is will it be a Coalition or a Confidence/Supply thingy.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 19, 2020, 11:53:07 PM
the ferocity of the popular backlash made them back off and , surprise, surprise, we have heard nothing since then about the urgent need for reform of our water supply and wastewater disposal. I am surprised at the number of people who feel sore about this attempted scam.

The water and wastewater still needs investment, but the pay nothing brigade reckon water falls for free so investing in it has not been a priority.
Quote
The €2.2 bn overrun in building the children's’ hospital and the fact that nothing was done to find out who was guilty of this hasn’t gone down well either.

Nobody is ever responsible in such cases.

Health, housing, homelessness and Harris were brought up by many I spoke to and the three Murphys came in for a lot of abuse also.

The 3 Murphys sounds like a comedy act, which is appropriate.

Quote
Personally speaking, I won’t be voting FG but I haven’t forgiven FF for what they did to the country either.
Martin is about as capable as Varadker and if he becomes Taoiseah, it will only be because he is slightly the lesser of two eejits.

I've come the conclusion that these people only try a bit at the start so all you can do is switch them around. It is a bit like house insurance, if you switch insurer from time to time then they give you better quotes.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 20, 2020, 08:58:23 AM
Either Leo or Micheál will be the next Taoiseach.
About the only question is will it be a Coalition or a Confidence/Supply thingy.


Sadly a depressing truth. As a nation we're institutionalised and addicted  to the FF/FG Punch and Judy show. Long past time we woke up and tried something different. It mightn't work either but you never know - it just might be better.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 20, 2020, 12:48:06 PM
My thinking on FF and FG is this

1) Varadker is a way more intelligent and astute politician than Martin. At least he says what he thinks even if i so not agree with many things he says. Martin has no opinion on anything and just wants to check which way the wind blows before deciding. He is ball-less.

2) Fine Gael politicians are on average more competent than their Fianna Fail counterparts.

3) I do not like FG idelogy at all and while I dont like FF much either, i would be closer to them than FG.

So basically, I will vote SF No 1 and I am really struggling after that.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 20, 2020, 01:10:19 PM
1) Varadkar opposed gay marriage and abortion when it was popular and profitable to do so. He is no better or worse than Micheal Martin.

2) The likes of Eoghan Murphy, Simon Harris, Richard Bruton and Regina Doherty are poor ads for the theory that Fine Gael politicians are on average more competent than anyone else.

3) Neither FG nor FF have any real ideology. See 1).
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 20, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
It'll be interesting to see how the odds move in the run-up to election day. At the moment, next Taoiseach is:

Martin 1/5
Varadker 3/1

Next government (need to have a Cabinet Minister to be part of the government, for the purposes of these odds:)

Fianna Fail/Green 6/1

FF/SD/Lab/Green 6/1

Fianna Fail/Independents 8/1

FG/Lab/SD/Green 10/1

FF/Green/Independents 10/1

FF/Lab/Green/Independents 11/1

FF/Lab/Green 12/1

Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 12/1

Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein 12/1

Fine Gael/Green 12/1

Fianna Fail Minority 14/1

FG/Green/Independents 14/1

Fine Gael/Independents 16/1

Fine Gael/Sinn Fein 18/1

Fianna Fail Majority 20/1

Fine Gael Minority 20/1

Fianna Fail/Labour 20/1

FG/Lab/Green/Independents 22/1

FG/Lab/Green 22/1

FF/Lab/Independents 22/1

Fine Gael/Labour 25/1



If I was to put a bet on where I think there's some value, I'd go with FG/Green or FG/Green/Independents
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 20, 2020, 01:20:53 PM
The water and wastewater still needs investment, but the pay nothing brigade reckon water falls for free so investing in it has not been a priority.
Yep. Of course, the Greens were one of the strongest supporters of water charges.
Interesting that some of the strongest anti-water charge brigade feel the Greens are the best.
But they may change their mind again when the Greens bring in their new taxes. But as you call them, "the pay nothing brigade" always seem to assume that someone else should pay it for them.


1) Varadkar opposed gay marriage and abortion when it was popular and profitable to do so. He is no better or worse than Micheal Martin.

Never heard that before.
Can you provide a link to substantiate (presumably you didn't just fabricate it) ?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 20, 2020, 01:28:00 PM
Never heard that before.
Can you provide a link to substantiate (presumably you didn't just fabricate it) ?

Really? Both are well known. Why you'd suggest that I might fabricate this is beyond me.

“I consider myself to be pro-life in that I accept that the unborn child is a human life with rights. I cannot, therefore, accept the view that it is a simple matter of choice. There are two lives involved in any pregnancy. For that reason, like most people in the country, I do not support abortion on request or on demand.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/leo-varadkar-s-shifting-view-on-abortion-will-be-key-to-campaign-1.3351288

“The question of adoption is ignored in this Bill because it is contentious. Sooner or later, it will have to be addressed. Every child has a father and a mother. Two men or two women cannot have a child together. A single person cannot have a child on their own unless they procure the pre-products of conception from an alternative source. This is an undeniable fact. [412] Unfortunately, sometimes in children’s lives one of the parents is not interested in them or dies. Where a child is an orphan, the State should replace their mother and father. Every child has the right to a mother and father and, as much as is possible, the State should vindicate that right. That is a much more important right than that of two men or women having a family. That is the principle that should underline our laws regarding children and adoption. I am also uncomfortable about adoption by single people regardless of their sexual orientation. I do not believe I as a single man should adopt a child. The child should go to parents, a mother and father, to replace what the child had before."

https://ionainstitute.ie/what-leo-varadkar-said-about-the-right-to-a-mother-and-a-father-in-full/

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 20, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Either Leo or Micheál will be the next Taoiseach.
About the only question is will it be a Coalition or a Confidence/Supply thingy.


Sadly a depressing truth. As a nation we're institutionalised and addicted  to the FF/FG Punch and Judy show. Long past time we woke up and tried something different. It mightn't work either but you never know - it just might be better.
I'd love to think so too, Seanie, but I can't see it ever happening. This is a democracy so the TDs are elected by the people. Voters tend to vote for those who best mirror their own interests and opinions, if you know what I mean.
TDs reflect the values of those who elect them in simple English. So, if you don't have an electorate that is, in the main, opposed to the use of brown envelopes and underhand horsetrading, it's highly unlikely that that these they elect will prove to be any more honest or diligent.
It's hard to accept it but FF/FG rule the proverbial roost because they are the preferred choice of a huge swathe of the general public.
Ironically, probably 95% of the electorate would feel offended if you pointed out this obvious truth to them!
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Itchy on January 20, 2020, 01:58:19 PM
1) Varadkar opposed gay marriage and abortion when it was popular and profitable to do so. He is no better or worse than Micheal Martin.

2) The likes of Eoghan Murphy, Simon Harris, Richard Bruton and Regina Doherty are poor ads for the theory that Fine Gael politicians are on average more competent than anyone else.

3) Neither FG nor FF have any real ideology. See 1).

You are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. All I say is that I dislike both men and parties - but I have to decide where my No 2, 3, 4 go and thats what I was alluding to.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 20, 2020, 02:52:58 PM
You are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. All I say is that I dislike both men and parties - but I have to decide where my No 2, 3, 4 go and thats what I was alluding to.

Exactly. And that's why I haven't questioned your choice of where your vote goes.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 20, 2020, 04:19:49 PM
Looks like I'll be voting Fitzmaurice and Naughten 1 and 2.
After that I don't know as I swore never to vote FF again after 2007, FG have been awful on the 2 main crises affecting people (Housing and Health), and apart from a Green candidate I'd be wasting my vote on the rest. Mind you voting Green round here would also be a waste.
FG have someone I never heard of from Galway while FF have hopped Orla Leyden in for gender balance and presumably to dump Eugene Murphy.
Be great if we could get 3 Independents in.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: manfromdelmonte on January 20, 2020, 10:21:05 PM
The water and wastewater still needs investment, but the pay nothing brigade reckon water falls for free so investing in it has not been a priority.
Yep. Of course, the Greens were one of the strongest supporters of water charges.
Interesting that some of the strongest anti-water charge brigade feel the Greens are the best.
But they may change their mind again when the Greens bring in their new taxes. But as you call them, "the pay nothing brigade" always seem to assume that someone else should pay it for them.

any sane person could see that water charges are necessary!! there are idiots out wasting water every day of the week
the greens were in favour of full state ownership, proper water allowances, water storage tanks for all new one off builds (quite sensible if you ask me) whereas FG wanted the private sector to get their slice.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 20, 2020, 10:44:55 PM
Latest Poll out tonight:

Fianna Fáil 25 (~)
Fine Gael 23 (-6)
Sinn Fein 21 (+7)
Green Party 8 (~)
Labour 5 (-1)
Ind/Other 18 (~)

Polls are rarely accurate but two in a row now show a significant surge for SF. When the latest poll shows just four 8 points separating the top 3 parties, and a 13 point gap between the top 3 and the best of the rest, it makes the decisions by RTÉ and Virgin to exclude SF from their first debates all the more ridiculous and hard to justify.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 20, 2020, 11:02:38 PM
Presumably the decision is based on the small percentage of the vote they got in the Locals and Euros real elections plus Maryloo is not going to be the next Taoiseach.
Then again a SF/Green/SDP/Labour Coalition might just be what the State needs.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 20, 2020, 11:33:19 PM
They'll always come up with ways to justify their decision but when two polls indicate that three parties are closely tied, then the decision to exclude one of them will appear to many people to be another example of the state funded, public service broadcaster, breaching it's own rules on impartiality. It isn't for RTÉ to decide who will be the next taoiseach, but they leave themselves wide open to the charge of trying to unduly influence who it will be.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 21, 2020, 08:58:58 AM
In the real World i.e Local and Euro elections 2019 Shinners got 9.5% and 11.7% of the 1st Preference Vote.
Did half them stay at home or what?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 21, 2020, 09:47:38 AM
This is the real world. And I've already stayed that polls are rarely accurate, but when two polls show a tight contest between three parties that are far and away ahead of the rest, then rightly or wrongly, RTÉ leave themselves wide open to the charge facing them by excluding one of them.

I personally don't agree with debates that exclude any party leaders by a broadcaster that claims to impose a rule of strict impartiality upon itself, but if they are going to have such debates, and the latest research shows three parties are way ahead of the rest, then they should surely reflect that.

As I say, it's not RTÉ's job to decide who will be the next Taoiseach, but there will only ever be a choice of two when the main media outlets persist in embedding the notion in peoples head that that is the reality.

Yesterday I listened to a podcast from Today FM from the day the election was called. Their political correspondent outlined that peoples choices were FF or FG, and to use his exact words "or then you have this weird grouping of centre left parties, the Social Democrats, the Greens, Labour". Not a single mention of SF at any stage in the discussion, and the other parties outside of FF/FG  described as "weird". Thats the message that is being subliminally/overtly delivered to people; 'Your choice is FF or FG. Don't be thinking of anything else.'

The fact that FF and FG have been in bed together for the past four years I suspect means more people are now accepting that policy wise, you couldn't get a cigarette paper between them, and a real and useful and democratic debate cannot happen when SF as the next biggest party, are barred from participation.

Interestingly, a former head of TV at RTÉ tweeted last night "As a former Director of TV at RTÉ, I would expect, given the party’s showing in these 2 polls, that Sinn Féin would be added to the Leaders’ Debates." And followed it up by saying "I believe that a party with a 20% poll should be included. Let them all be questioned on a public platform together. Fair."

It's hardly a big ask and more importantly, hardly an undemocratic one.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: yellowcard on January 21, 2020, 10:10:44 AM
The irony is that if SF were included in the debate then it would probably damage them in the election, since both the main parties have plenty of ammunition to attack them on. There may be a certain element of Official Ireland protecting it's own self interest by excluding them and making it a duel between FG/FF but it also suits the SF narrative being a party of protest to be able to cry foul.   
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 21, 2020, 10:24:35 AM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 21, 2020, 10:43:50 AM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.


Really?

2016 election - SF First Pref %
Roscommon/Galway - 6.7%;
Donegal - 26.7%;
Sligo/Leitrim - 17.8%;
Mayo - 10.1%;
Galway West - 8.9%;
Galway East - 5.9%;
Longford/Westmeath - 9.5%;
Cavan/Monaghan - 27.1%
Laois - 21.2%;
Offaly - 10.9%.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on January 21, 2020, 10:51:21 AM
The RTE decesion is playing into SF hands.

Let them on, they will crumble the more exposure they get. The RIC scandal was a joke, and a disgrace to even suggest it, but if SF gain based on this and the RTE debate rather than policy well people deserve what they get
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 21, 2020, 11:20:27 AM
The RTE decesion is playing into SF hands.

Let them on, they will crumble the more exposure they get. The RIC scandal was a joke, and a disgrace to even suggest it, but if SF gain based on this and the RTE debate rather than policy well people deserve what they get

It's silly to suggest that the RIC debacle is the only explanation for SFs high polling figures. Éoin Ó'Broin has been outstanding on the housing issue, while Pearse Doherty has impressed on the insurance rip off. His campaigning on pension ages seems to be striking a chord too. There are crises in housing and homelessness that people are angry about, and on top of that, for the first time FG and FG have been jointly responsible for this as partners in power and there is an anger there. So as you say, if people vote again for FF or FG, maybe they do deserve what they get.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 21, 2020, 11:23:33 AM
It's silly to suggest that the RIC debacle is the only explanation for SFs high polling figures. Éoin Ó'Broin has been outstanding on the housing issue, while Pearse Doherty has impressed on the insurance rip off. His campaigning on pension ages seems to be striking a chord too. There are crises in housing and homelessness that people are angry about, and on top of that, for the first time FG and FG have been jointly responsible for this as partners in power and there is an anger there. So as you say, if people vote again for FF or FG, maybe they do deserve what they get.

The anti-Brit rhetoric over Brexit is set to bite FG & FF in the ass. As is the extra fiver a week every year to OAPs, which is necessitating the rise in the OAP pension age. SF have made hay on both.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 21, 2020, 11:43:38 AM
The RTE decesion is playing into SF hands.

Let them on, they will crumble the more exposure they get. The RIC scandal was a joke, and a disgrace to even suggest it, but if SF gain based on this and the RTE debate rather than policy well people deserve what they get

It's silly to suggest that the RIC debacle is the only explanation for SFs high polling figures. Éoin Ó'Broin has been outstanding on the housing issue

Not much good when action is required as proven when they controlled Dublin City Council. The O’Devanney Gardens fiasco originally signed off by SF shows the nonsense of signing off on social/affordable housing without any clue how it was going to be funded. SF do need to be on debate so these types of issues can be raised, instead of getting a free ride as hurlers on the ditch.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on January 21, 2020, 12:22:19 PM
The RTE decesion is playing into SF hands.

Let them on, they will crumble the more exposure they get. The RIC scandal was a joke, and a disgrace to even suggest it, but if SF gain based on this and the RTE debate rather than policy well people deserve what they get

It's silly to suggest that the RIC debacle is the only explanation for SFs high polling figures. Éoin Ó'Broin has been outstanding on the housing issue, while Pearse Doherty has impressed on the insurance rip off. His campaigning on pension ages seems to be striking a chord too. There are crises in housing and homelessness that people are angry about, and on top of that, for the first time FG and FG have been jointly responsible for this as partners in power and there is an anger there. So as you say, if people vote again for FF or FG, maybe they do deserve what they get.

I am just relaying what a lot of "experts" are saying, if the gains are for genuine political reasons fair enough, the 2 lads you have mentioned are the best SF have, but the talent isn't there after that to push any real political or economic change.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on January 21, 2020, 12:24:11 PM
The RTE decesion is playing into SF hands.

Let them on, they will crumble the more exposure they get. The RIC scandal was a joke, and a disgrace to even suggest it, but if SF gain based on this and the RTE debate rather than policy well people deserve what they get

It's silly to suggest that the RIC debacle is the only explanation for SFs high polling figures. Éoin Ó'Broin has been outstanding on the housing issue

Not much good when action is required as proven when they controlled Dublin City Council. The O’Devanney Gardens fiasco originally signed off by SF shows the nonsense of signing off on social/affordable housing without any clue how it was going to be funded. SF do need to be on debate so these types of issues can be raised, instead of getting a free ride as hurlers on the ditch.

SF are bleeding the North dry along with DUP due to total economic ineptitude.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: WT4E on January 21, 2020, 02:04:52 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on January 21, 2020, 02:18:51 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Agreed. But a UI isnt a SF idea. It is aspired to by all nationalist parties on the island, its their view of timing that is different
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: WT4E on January 21, 2020, 02:22:36 PM
Okay I agree with you on that - probably wasn't clear but I also agree this is not a SF only thing and would be a failure if it was.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 21, 2020, 02:25:18 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 21, 2020, 02:25:22 PM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.


Really?

2016 election - SF First Pref %
Roscommon/Galway - 6.7%;
Donegal - 26.7%;
Sligo/Leitrim - 17.8%;
Mayo - 10.1%;
Galway West - 8.9%;
Galway East - 5.9%;
Longford/Westmeath - 9.5%;
Cavan/Monaghan - 27.1%
Laois - 21.2%;
Offaly - 10.9%.
Would you have the more recent and relevant...2019 figures?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Owenmoresider on January 21, 2020, 03:05:07 PM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.


Really?

2016 election - SF First Pref %
Roscommon/Galway - 6.7%;
Donegal - 26.7%;
Sligo/Leitrim - 17.8%;
Mayo - 10.1%;
Galway West - 8.9%;
Galway East - 5.9%;
Longford/Westmeath - 9.5%;
Cavan/Monaghan - 27.1%
Laois - 21.2%;
Offaly - 10.9%.
Would you have the more recent and relevant...2019 figures?
Roscommon 7.4%
Galway Co 4.8%
Galway City 5.4%
Mayo 7.4%
Sligo 8.2%
Leitrim 17.2%
Donegal 19.4%
Cavan 12.4%
Monaghan 34.4%
Longford 4.6%
Westmeath 5.8%
Offaly 4.6%
Laois 11.1%
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 21, 2020, 07:27:04 PM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.


Really?

2016 election - SF First Pref %
Roscommon/Galway - 6.7%;
Donegal - 26.7%;
Sligo/Leitrim - 17.8%;
Mayo - 10.1%;
Galway West - 8.9%;
Galway East - 5.9%;
Longford/Westmeath - 9.5%;
Cavan/Monaghan - 27.1%
Laois - 21.2%;
Offaly - 10.9%.
Would you have the more recent and relevant...2019 figures?


How about breaking the habit of a lifetime and admitting you were wrong for once? 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 22, 2020, 01:30:02 AM
How about reading your fellow Sligoman's post.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eamonnca1 on January 22, 2020, 03:05:39 AM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

The bank guarantee was not the EU's bright idea.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Eamonnca1 on January 22, 2020, 03:08:01 AM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Agreed. But a UI isnt a SF idea. It is aspired to by all nationalist parties on the island, its their view of timing that is different

Indeed. To listen to some Shinners, you'd think that anyone who wants anything short of a UI by midnight tonight is some sort of west-brit, bootlicking, pope-kicking unionist.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: WT4E on January 22, 2020, 11:00:59 AM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 22, 2020, 12:00:22 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You’ve used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 22, 2020, 12:02:03 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

The bank guarantee was not the EU's bright idea.

Apples and oranges.

The bank guarantee guaranteed deposits.

The EU insisted we pay bondholders and interbank debt.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 22, 2020, 12:04:35 PM
I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-slashes-funding-for-bosnia/
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 22, 2020, 12:47:07 PM
How about reading your fellow Sligoman's post.


I did read it. Clearly you didn't or you don't understand what you typed yourself.

Quote
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 22, 2020, 01:06:05 PM
Any more hairs to split?
Still a long way off the 20% being bandied about from opinion polls.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 22, 2020, 01:16:54 PM
Any more hairs to split?
Still a long way off the 20% being bandied about from opinion polls.


It's not hair splitting. Your statement was 100%, clearly incorrect. SF got 13% across Midlands-North West last year in the Euro election. That's actually closer to 20% than your completely laughable less than 5%.

Admit you fcuked up.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 22, 2020, 01:20:42 PM
Any more hairs to split?
Still a long way off the 20% being bandied about from opinion polls.

The problem there is that "the 20% being bandied about" (or to reword that for you: the 20-21% findings from the two most recent opinion polls), was a 26 county figure and not a figure restricted to "Western or Midland constituencies" as you were basing your remarks on. You said they would struggle to reach 5% in in "most of" those western & midland constituencies.

The evidence posted directly and comprehensively discredits your claim. That isn't a matter of discussion or debate. The figures are there. When you're wrong and the evidence to show it is presented for everyone to see, ffs have it in you to admit it lol
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 22, 2020, 02:15:43 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You’ve used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.
Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you. 
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Farrandeelin on January 22, 2020, 02:51:49 PM
Looks like I'll be voting Fitzmaurice and Naughten 1 and 2.
After that I don't know as I swore never to vote FF again after 2007, FG have been awful on the 2 main crises affecting people (Housing and Health), and apart from a Green candidate I'd be wasting my vote on the rest. Mind you voting Green round here would also be a waste.
FG have someone I never heard of from Galway while FF have hopped Orla Leyden in for gender balance and presumably to dump Eugene Murphy.
Be great if we could get 3 Independents in.

And what if there was an actual 2 party coalition, the independents would be useless in that instance.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 22, 2020, 03:49:25 PM
Looks like I'll be voting Fitzmaurice and Naughten 1 and 2.
After that I don't know as I swore never to vote FF again after 2007, FG have been awful on the 2 main crises affecting people (Housing and Health), and apart from a Green candidate I'd be wasting my vote on the rest. Mind you voting Green round here would also be a waste.
FG have someone I never heard of from Galway while FF have hopped Orla Leyden in for gender balance and presumably to dump Eugene Murphy.
Be great if we could get 3 Independents in.

And what if there was an actual 2 party coalition, the independents would be useless in that instance.
I'm all for voting for Independents, where I think they are good, in local and European elections. They can certainly make a difference at local level and they can contribute as much as anyone at EU level (which isn't a whole heap for any Irish MEP, but that's a different thread..)

But Independents are largely useless when it comes to running the country, and when needed for a government often hold the country to ransom based on local/single issues.

If what they stand for is truly worthy of support based on national issues, surely there should be enough of like-mind to form a party, or at least a grouping, and bring about an actual alternative.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 22, 2020, 04:04:31 PM
Any more hairs to split?
Still a long way off the 20% being bandied about from opinion polls.


It's not hair splitting. Your statement was 100%, clearly incorrect. SF got 13% across Midlands-North West last year in the Euro election. That's actually closer to 20% than your completely laughable less than 5%.

Admit you fcuked up.
I said MOST Western and Midlands.
Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan are not West or Midlands.
Including Leitrim and Laois gives you around 7%.
Excluding those 2 double figures percentages gives you around 6%.
We Connacht people usually speak in broad indicative terms and leave the narrow literal interpretations to Northerners and Solicitors ;)
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 22, 2020, 04:23:10 PM
I said MOST Western and Midlands.
Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan are not West or Midlands.
Including Leitrim and Laois gives you around 7%.
Excluding those 2 double figures percentages gives you around 6%.
We Connacht people usually speak in broad indicative terms and leave the narrow literal interpretations to Northerners and Solicitors ;)

Wow. That's some mental gymnastics! So basically you were right so long as everyone else accepts that:

1. Donegal (a county on the west coast) is not in the west, so must be excluded
2. Cavan and Monaghan (both landlocked counties) are not midland counties, so must be excluded
3. Leitrim & Laois can be excluded solely because SF's results there are far higher than suits your argument

Any other straws you can clutch to or is that it?


I said MOST Western and Midlands.

Indeed you did. And even if we indulged your staggering mental gymnastics above and removed all the constituencies you asked us to remove, then most of the rest STILL had SF at over 5% going by the 2019 figures:

Roscommon 7.4%
Galway Co 4.8%
Galway City 5.4%
Mayo 7.4%
Sligo 8.2%

Longford 4.6%
Westmeath 5.8%
Offaly 4.6%


Wouldn't it just be easier to say, 'ok fair enough, I was wrong'?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: trailer on January 22, 2020, 04:28:28 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: johnnycool on January 22, 2020, 04:30:54 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Again?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Angelo on January 22, 2020, 04:31:52 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You’ve used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.
Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you.

Plenty of people work their bollocks off for significanly less than €80k.

You sound like a Tatcherite.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: trailer on January 22, 2020, 04:35:38 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You’ve used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.
Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you.

I'm not a Shinner, but the UK will be paying their way in regards to reunification. That's not even up for discussion. They will obligations that they will simply have to meet. But if Unionists have a long road to travel many those comments show many Republicans and Nationalists have an even longer one.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 22, 2020, 04:42:17 PM
I said MOST Western and Midlands.
Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan are not West or Midlands.
Including Leitrim and Laois gives you around 7%.
Excluding those 2 double figures percentages gives you around 6%.
We Connacht people usually speak in broad indicative terms and leave the narrow literal interpretations to Northerners and Solicitors ;)

Wow. That's some mental gymnastics! So basically you were right so long as everyone else accepts that:

1. Donegal (a county on the west coast) is not in the west, so must be excluded
2. Cavan and Monaghan (both landlocked counties) are not midland counties, so must be excluded
3. Leitrim & Laois can be excluded solely because SF's results there are far higher than suits your argument

Any other straws you can clutch to or is that it?


I said MOST Western and Midlands.

Indeed you did. And even if we indulged you staggering mental gymnastics above, and removed all the constituencies you asked up to remove), then most of the rest STILL had SF at over 5% going by the 2019 figures:

Roscommon 7.4%
Galway Co 4.8%
Galway City 5.4%
Mayo 7.4%
Sligo 8.2%

Longford 4.6%
Westmeath 5.8%
Offaly 4.6%


Wouldn't it just be easier to say, 'ok fair enough, I was wrong'?


It would have been.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 22, 2020, 04:49:47 PM
SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 22, 2020, 04:51:12 PM
Galway County, Offaly, Longford..
"Doubtful if SF would get more than 5% in most Western or Midland Constituencies"
My conditional prediction may or may not prove accurate as time will tell.
Antway if we're to have a Left leaning Government SF need to do the improbable and get nearly all their 40 or 41 candidates elected and need 39/40 left leaning TDs to support them.
A long long shot.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 22, 2020, 05:22:47 PM
SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: seafoid on January 22, 2020, 06:10:54 PM
An FF/FG/FFS grand coalition is looking likely.
A bit more formal than the existing confidence and supply arrangement.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 22, 2020, 06:48:41 PM
SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.
Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 22, 2020, 06:50:59 PM
Opinion poll a few days ago (Irish Times) gave progressive parties 38% (SF 21, Green 8, Lab 5, SD 2, AAA-PBP 2), Conservatives 48% (FF 25 FG 23). Independents 14%. That's a comparative that shouldn't be ignored.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Hound on January 22, 2020, 07:37:33 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you but the "some possible economic downside" bit is worrying. It took the south 40 years from independence to even make a dent in this downside. The EU sunk us to save the French and German banks in 2010, they haven't a notion of funding us for a decade, let alone 40 years and nor will the UK.

British leaving the 26 can't be compared to this scenario in my opinion. UK want out of the North and will pay for the privilege when the day comes I think. I anticipate the EU will help fund as a reunification/peace project. The North has an established economy that will function better under a one island model.

Even if it did take 10 years to sort it would be to the benefit of future generations and morale in general of the whole island (Blue Shirt Black & Tan supporters would eventually enjoy it)

You’ve used a beloved Irish economic theory there: sure someone else will pay for it.
Yep, a typical Shinner.

Like the populist move to bring the pension age back to 65.
Who'd pay for that???

Beware if you've worked your bollix off in school, college and the workplace and are now earning €80k or more. SF will come to get you.

Plenty of people work their bollocks off for significanly less than €80k.

You sound like a Tatcherite.

Where did I say otherwise?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 22, 2020, 08:36:18 PM
Opinion poll a few days ago (Irish Times) gave progressive parties 38% (SF 21, Green 8, Lab 5, SD 2, AAA-PBP 2), Conservatives 48% (FF 25 FG 23). Independents 14%. That's a comparative that shouldn't be ignored.
That seems about right and you can be sure the spin doctors in both of the big parties are fully aware of this as well. However, in all likelihood, polls like this one tend to underestimate the support FF/FG will get at the ballot box and, conversely, the minnows are likely to get less.
THe big two have a degree of organisation in every constituency in the land that no other party can match. THey have more canvassers to knock on doors, handout flyers and hang posters. ON election day, they will have cars to bring elderly/infirm voters to the centres.
Apart from all that, only the big two will have someone standing in every constituency in the country. The minnows and this includes SF have nowhere near as many candidates standing so their % vote can be misleading.
For instance the Greens in the above poll register 8%.
But 8% is their countrywide average and they won’t be fielding candidates in every constituency so what they get in Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown or Dublin South or wherever, will need to be considerably more than 8% if they are to win a seat.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 22, 2020, 08:42:31 PM
SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.
Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

If they both do okish they will continue the confidence and supply. But if Fine Gael take a bad beating, they will go into opposition to lick their wounds (as they should, and would be the smarter move for them). In which case, FF and SF will come under pressure to form a government, especially if they are the two parties with the momentum.


Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Farrandeelin on January 22, 2020, 08:56:09 PM
SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.
Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

If they both do okish they will continue the confidence and supply. But if Fine Gael take a bad beating, they will go into opposition to lick their wounds (as they should, and would be the smarter move for them). In which case, FF and SF will come under pressure to form a government, especially if they are the two parties with the momentum.

Maybe if someone such as Ó Cuiv was FF leader that would be possible. Cannot see FF/SF coalition under Martin. Also,SF would be betraying their own voters if that happened too in my opinion.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 22, 2020, 09:23:07 PM
SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best.

So basically it's a waste of time voting for anyone other than the main two parties, because it amounts to "just a protest vote"?

An interesting, if a tad ironic, theory to hear coming from an SDLP fanboy.

If FG get a kicking from the electorate (as opinion polls would appear to suggest), they will go into opposition. Then FF and SF will likely be left with the responsibility of forming a government. Will they accept that responsibility. If I recall correctly, no one was too keen to form a government after last election, other than Enda Kenny, despite FG also losing a lot of seats.
Be under no illusion, FF and FG will not coalesce with the Shinners under any circumstances. That's nothing to do with ideology and all to do with popularity. The two major players in Irish politics won't accept  another will do everything they can to prevent SF becoming a threat to them both.
If FF becomes the majority party, FG will do a confidence & supply deal with them and if, somehow, FG is the one with the most seats, things will continue as before.
In a nutshell, FF and FG may dislike each other but both fear SF and don't want to give them a look in of any sort.

If they both do okish they will continue the confidence and supply. But if Fine Gael take a bad beating, they will go into opposition to lick their wounds (as they should, and would be the smarter move for them). In which case, FF and SF will come under pressure to form a government, especially if they are the two parties with the momentum.

Maybe if someone such as Ó Cuiv was FF leader that would be possible. Cannot see FF/SF coalition under Martin. Also,SF would be betraying their own voters if that happened too in my opinion.

But unlike last time, they have announced they are prepared to go into coalition. Granted Mary Lou has moved the goalposts slightly in that she has demanded a border poll as part of going into coalition. But that can only be granted by UK Secretary of State, so I can't see what Martin could do about that other than meekly ask. I think the outcome of this election will force parties into making decisions on whether they put party or country first. It will be interesting.


Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: marty34 on January 22, 2020, 10:13:07 PM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!

Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Angelo on January 22, 2020, 10:46:47 PM
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

FF are absolutely reprehensible and Martin makes my skin crawl.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 22, 2020, 10:54:35 PM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: marty34 on January 22, 2020, 11:12:12 PM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

Is that a 'tender' then...lol.  Slippery FF/FG lecturing anybody on economics is quite ironic.  They decimated rural Ireland by their cost cutting - post offices closed all over the place.  Rural crime rampant and what do they do....they close more garda stations.

Approx 8 years to try and solve the housing and health issues and no inroads has been make on it.

Time to go - time for change!
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Angelo on January 22, 2020, 11:27:38 PM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

He is the most repulsive snake of free state partitionism.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 22, 2020, 11:30:43 PM
Irish Free State was abolished in 1937.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Farrandeelin on January 22, 2020, 11:32:58 PM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

He is the most repulsive snake of free state partitionism.

+1. Probably voting SF after that.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: yellowcard on January 22, 2020, 11:37:53 PM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

He is the most repulsive snake of free state partitionism.

Do they still call themselves the Republican Party? Micheal Martin is more partitionist than most in FG and that takes some doing.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Snapchap on January 23, 2020, 12:06:48 AM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

He is the most repulsive snake of free state partitionism.

Do they still call themselves the Republican Party? Micheal Martin is more partitionist than most in FG and that takes some doing.

Is it not a bit obscene that Pat Kenny provided both Leo and Micheal with an opportunity to tear into Sinn Féin when SF weren't allowed to be there to defend themselves? Surely this is fundamentally wrong?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Farrandeelin on January 23, 2020, 08:55:01 AM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

He is the most repulsive snake of free state partitionism.

Do they still call themselves the Republican Party? Micheal Martin is more partitionist than most in FG and that takes some doing.

Is it not a bit obscene that Pat Kenny provided both Leo and Micheal with an opportunity to tear into Sinn Féin when SF weren't allowed to be there to defend themselves? Surely this is fundamentally wrong?

That's the establishment for you.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 09:40:26 AM
The absolute hypocrisy of Vardaker and Martin in relation to a SF coalition is breathtaking, almost a quarter of a century since the cease fire and they are still peddling this partitionist nonsense that is insulting to the vast majority of nationalists in the North and a good slice of the southern electorate. SF may well have men in dark rooms dictating policy but FF and FG have also unelected developers, bankers and businesses exerting similar influence. I would not agree with all SF's economic policies but their broad thrust on housing and social justice could lead to a fairer society. The SDLP if they had any balls would call out this partitionist bullshit, but given that their only policy starts with a but SF... that's unlikely.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 10:11:45 AM
The absolute hypocrisy of Vardaker and Martin in relation to a SF coalition is breathtaking, almost a quarter of a century since the cease fire and they are still peddling this partitionist nonsense that is insulting to the vast majority of nationalists in the North and a good slice of the southern electorate. SF may well have men in dark rooms dictating policy but FF and FG have also unelected developers, bankers and businesses exerting similar influence. I would not agree with all SF's economic policies but their broad thrust on housing and social justice could lead to a fairer society. The SDLP if they had any balls would call out this partitionist bullshit, but given that their only policy starts with a but SF... that's unlikely.


It's a perfect storm for SF I think. They exposed their rank hypocrisy and Mary Lou didn't have to be there to defend SF.

I'd have a few concerns about SF myself but my hope is for a left alliance of SF/Green/Lab/SD/PbP so we can get on with addressing the really pressing issues of climate, income inequality, housing, healthcare and the jobs timebomb approaching before it's too late. FF and FG will not address any of these issues. They'll keep serving the wealthy.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: trailer on January 23, 2020, 10:23:11 AM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!


Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.

Whatever. At least you can guarantee it will be electable and accountable politicians taking decisions. Not a bundle of provisionals in the Felons club.
SF don't operate like any normal political party. Those who are elected in SF aren't allowed to take decisions. That's not democracy.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 23, 2020, 10:24:36 AM
Why not?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 23, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
Sinn Fein need to be on these debates so they can be asked about their populist policies. I specifically want to know how they will fund these 100,000 social houses. At say 100 grand a house, that’s an astronomical cost to taxpayer. They signed off on the social housing for O’Devanney Gardens without any plan for how they would be funded and then washed their hands of the fiasco when this emerged. We have seen enough Fianna Fáil populist policies bankrupt the country to go down that road again. The solution to housing for young people is staring us in face. Young people want to live in urban areas, near culture and city life. That’s a worldwide trend. We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units, with a law requiring x amount be for families on lower income at lower prices. Let private developers build, let them make money. Government has no business being property developers, building shit, and fleecing the taxpayer, the minority paying for everything.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Applesisapples on January 23, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
Sinn Fein need to be on these debates so they can be asked about their populist policies. I specifically want to know how they will fund these 100,000 social houses. At say 100 grand a house, that’s an astronomical cost to taxpayer. They signed off on the social housing for O’Devanney Gardens without any plan for how they would be funded and then washed their hands of the fiasco when this emerged. We have seen enough Fianna Fáil populist policies bankrupt the country to go down that road again. The solution to housing for young people is staring us in face. Young people want to live in urban areas, near culture and city life. That’s a worldwide trend. We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units, with a law requiring x amount be for families on lower income at lower prices. Let private developers build, let them make money. Government has no business being property developers, building shit, and fleecing the taxpayer, the minority paying for everything.
Problem is developers are back fleecing people on the housing market. Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 23, 2020, 12:08:17 PM
I'd give Leo the nod for his performance last night but only because he was there for the taking. Michéal had his past as a FF minister to to defend so he was going ltg to get some flak over this but he was out of office for eight years and Leo's failings are in here here and now so I felt he'd be more vulnerable to accusations of incompetence than Martin before the gig began.
Varadker survived and I'd mark that down as a plus.
I think the FG spin doctors had done a better job of batin' a bit of gravitas and pseudo sincerity and humility into their man than their counterparts did with their man.
I think Martin hadn't expected Leo to stand up to him and thought that by highlighting the government's failings, Leo would be there for the taking.
In the event, Leo survived albeit with a few proverbial kicks up the ass. He can feel slightly more relieved by his performance than Michéal can with his.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 23, 2020, 12:16:03 PM
Martin is going to be on a sticky wicket attacking the Government on their record since 2016 .
He had the Government in the palm of his hand and could have forced them to take action on anything he or FF were "concerned" about.
SF sound like the infamous FF manifesto of 1977 which gave us the massive 1980s recession- increase spending and reduce taxes.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 12:27:45 PM
Sinn Fein need to be on these debates so they can be asked about their populist policies. I specifically want to know how they will fund these 100,000 social houses. At say 100 grand a house, that’s an astronomical cost to taxpayer. They signed off on the social housing for O’Devanney Gardens without any plan for how they would be funded and then washed their hands of the fiasco when this emerged. We have seen enough Fianna Fáil populist policies bankrupt the country to go down that road again. The solution to housing for young people is staring us in face. Young people want to live in urban areas, near culture and city life. That’s a worldwide trend. We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units, with a law requiring x amount be for families on lower income at lower prices. Let private developers build, let them make money. Government has no business being property developers, building shit, and fleecing the taxpayer, the minority paying for everything.
Problem is developers are back fleecing people on the housing market. Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.
Until there's enough supply to meet demand, developers will fleece people wherever they can. The fact that there's damn all housebuilding outside the larger cities, and not enough within them, suggests it's not that attractive a proposition in most cases.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
Sinn Fein need to be on these debates so they can be asked about their populist policies. I specifically want to know how they will fund these 100,000 social houses. At say 100 grand a house, that’s an astronomical cost to taxpayer. They signed off on the social housing for O’Devanney Gardens without any plan for how they would be funded and then washed their hands of the fiasco when this emerged. We have seen enough Fianna Fáil populist policies bankrupt the country to go down that road again. The solution to housing for young people is staring us in face. Young people want to live in urban areas, near culture and city life. That’s a worldwide trend. We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units, with a law requiring x amount be for families on lower income at lower prices. Let private developers build, let them make money. Government has no business being property developers, building shit, and fleecing the taxpayer, the minority paying for everything.


If you build those social houses you'll generate rent from those who take them up. Unlike say rolling out broadband everywhere costing billions and not actually owning it after that. Just because it's not free market economics doesn't mean it doesn't add up or make sense. We need to look at countries where solutions are working - Finland a great example. The only country in the EU where homelessness is decreasing and in fact it's almost eliminated. They come up with solutions based on needs because they're capable of independent thought. We're very much at the "four legs good, two legs bad" level of analysis unfortunately.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 12:57:36 PM
If you build those social houses you'll generate rent from those who take them up.

The experience to date in this country and elsewhere is that the rent the State receives from social housing is rarely if ever enough to meet the cost of maintaining them long-term. Forget altogether about repaying the original investment.

That's why council estates across the land are riddled with empty derelict properties and others heading in the same direction.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 01:03:19 PM
If you build those social houses you'll generate rent from those who take them up.

The experience to date in this country and elsewhere is that the rent the State received from social housing is rarely if ever enough to meet the cost of maintaining them long-term. Forget altogether about repaying the original investment.

That's why council estates across the land are riddled with empty derelict properties and others heading in the same direction.


Why is this though? Is it because those living in them were unemployed or not paid enough for the work they did? At least we have a minimum, if not a living wage now. I'd also suggest a good % of social houses should be rent to buy to give people that chance to own their home one day. The "experience to date" in this country is a pretty poor foundation for any economic discussion I'd suggest also though I wouldn't be so sure you're assertion is correct.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: TheOptimist on January 23, 2020, 01:12:36 PM
Martin is going to be on a sticky wicket attacking the Government on their record since 2016 .
He had the Government in the palm of his hand and could have forced them to take action on anything he or FF were "concerned" about.
SF sound like the infamous FF manifesto of 1977 which gave us the massive 1980s recession- increase spending and reduce taxes.

This one often amuses me. Not saying you, but there is sometimes an attitude, SF policies sound like FF policies that failed so people should vote for FF instead!
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 01:19:03 PM
Why is this though? Is it because those living in them were unemployed or not paid enough for the work they did? At least we have a minimum, if not a living wage now. I'd also suggest a good % of social houses should be rent to buy to give people that chance to own their home one day. The "experience to date" in this country is a pretty poor foundation for any economic discussion I'd suggest also though I wouldn't be so sure you're assertion is correct.

Why weren't the properties maintained?

Pick your answer:

1. their owners (the councils) couldn't afford to.
or
2. they didn't bother to.

though I wouldn't be so sure you're assertion is correct.
Which assertion?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: andoireabu on January 23, 2020, 01:29:21 PM
Sinn Fein need to be on these debates so they can be asked about their populist policies. I specifically want to know how they will fund these 100,000 social houses. At say 100 grand a house, that’s an astronomical cost to taxpayer. They signed off on the social housing for O’Devanney Gardens without any plan for how they would be funded and then washed their hands of the fiasco when this emerged. We have seen enough Fianna Fáil populist policies bankrupt the country to go down that road again. The solution to housing for young people is staring us in face. Young people want to live in urban areas, near culture and city life. That’s a worldwide trend. We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units, with a law requiring x amount be for families on lower income at lower prices. Let private developers build, let them make money. Government has no business being property developers, building shit, and fleecing the taxpayer, the minority paying for everything.
Problem is developers are back fleecing people on the housing market. Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

How much does a developer make per house or a site they develop?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 01:55:09 PM

How much does a developer make per house or a site they develop?

As much as they can after paying everyone.

20 years ago it was a lucrative trade and we had houses built everywhere. Around here there hasn't been one built anywhere for 10 or 12 years and you'd pay an arm and a leg to rent a place if you can find one. Something's gone haywire.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 23, 2020, 02:10:26 PM
Martin is going to be on a sticky wicket attacking the Government on their record since 2016 .
He had the Government in the palm of his hand and could have forced them to take action on anything he or FF were "concerned" about.
SF sound like the infamous FF manifesto of 1977 which gave us the massive 1980s recession- increase spending and reduce taxes.

This one often amuses me. Not saying you, but there is sometimes an attitude, SF policies sound like FF policies that failed so people should vote for FF instead!

That's how the Irish people operate. Austerity usually has to be carried out by a coalition of FG and Labour, and much needed social legislation (divorce, abortion). This ends up alienating a huge amount of people. FF swoop in with their populist policies and people forget the recession they caused in the 1980s that caused 250,000 to emigrate with high unemployment, and similar a decade ago. The previous party get little thanks. Ruari Quinn in last rainbow coalition brought in the corp tax that revolutionised employment in this country yet Labour are still being punished for trying to clean up the mess FF created after inheriting a great economy from that coalition. SF are now out there with the populist policies. Pension age 65 is typical. Every developed country is going to need to raise this age. People are living longer and funding an aging population will be one of the biggest challenges of our time. These are facts that we need to embrace but gets turned into hysteria.

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 02:18:40 PM
That's how the Irish people operate. Austerity usually has to be carried out by a coalition of FG and Labour, and much needed social legislation (divorce, abortion). This ends up alienating a huge amount of people. FF swoop in with their populist policies and people forget the recession they caused in the 1980s that caused 250,000 to emigrate with high unemployment, and similar a decade ago. The previous party get little thanks.

It was Charlie Haughey's FF who implemented austerity in 1987 after FG/Labour had sat in government for 5 years and refused to tackle a big public spending deficit problem (which admittedly had been caused originally by Jack Lynch and worsened by Haughey).
 
Ruari Quinn in last rainbow coalition brought in the corp tax that revolutionised employment in this country yet Labour are still being punished for trying to clean up the mess FF created after inheriting a great economy from that coalition
Quinn merely updated Corporation Tax that was previously 10% for manufacturing companies and widened it to all companies. Quinn also introduced the Seaside Resorts tax incentive, the first of the big tax incentives that fuelled the bubble, but he's much too shy to claim credit for that.


SF are now out there with the populist policies. Pension age 65 is typical. Every developed country is going to need to raise this age. People are living longer and funding an aging population will be one of the biggest challenges of our time. These are facts that we need to embrace but gets turned into hysteria.

On this we are agreed.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 02:22:18 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp)

Our economic model is a total mess. We should be looking at decreasing inequality still further with our taxation regmie, not making it worse.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 02:39:11 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp)



Twenty-something leftie civil servant in "no tax cuts for coping families!" shocker.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 02:40:07 PM
Martin is going to be on a sticky wicket attacking the Government on their record since 2016 .
He had the Government in the palm of his hand and could have forced them to take action on anything he or FF were "concerned" about.
SF sound like the infamous FF manifesto of 1977 which gave us the massive 1980s recession- increase spending and reduce taxes.


Language is so important here. FF's manifesto didn't cause the worldwide recession. The policies they implemented left the country badly exposed to this recession. Typically in this country we spend "when we have it" and cut when we don't - the exact opposite of what public policy should be.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 02:42:01 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp)



Twenty-something leftie civil servant in "no tax cuts for coping families!" shocker.


You're a gas ticket! So naive and clueless.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Tubberman on January 23, 2020, 02:42:48 PM
Martin is going to be on a sticky wicket attacking the Government on their record since 2016 .
He had the Government in the palm of his hand and could have forced them to take action on anything he or FF were "concerned" about.
SF sound like the infamous FF manifesto of 1977 which gave us the massive 1980s recession- increase spending and reduce taxes.


Language is so important here. FF's manifesto didn't cause the worldwide recession. The policies they implemented left the country badly exposed to this recession. Typically in this country we spend "when we have it" and cut when we don't - the exact opposite of what public policy should be.

Replace "we" with "Fianna Fail" and you're about right.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 02:43:54 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp)



Twenty-something leftie civil servant in "no tax cuts for coping families!" shocker.


You're a gas ticket! So naive and clueless.

Any better retort than ad hominem insult? Thought not.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: dec on January 23, 2020, 02:45:32 PM
but my hope is for a left alliance of SF/Green/Lab/SD/PbP

The only way you will ever get that is if the left parties refuse to go into coalition with FG or FF
However I think if FG or FF get close to a majority then either Labour or the Greens (or both) will end up in coalition.

Force a FG/FF coalition and then run as a proper left alternative against them next time.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: dec on January 23, 2020, 02:47:50 PM
We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units,

Is there a law or regulation that prevents that at the moment?
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 23, 2020, 02:59:15 PM
We have to be like New York and start allowing high rise rental units,

Is there a law or regulation that prevents that at the moment?

There's height limitations in Dublin, also concerns about the impact on the skyline.
As a country too we also have an obsession with home ownership - which is old, legacy thinking.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/01/16/home-ownership-is-the-wests-biggest-economic-policy-mistake
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 23, 2020, 03:07:37 PM
[Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

They did tender for it, only one company remained in the tender process.
Mind you, what they were trying to do was bollix.

Quote
It's bad when Varadkar is more republican than Martin.

Martin is a bit slithery, but you know rightly that he would love  to the FF leader who united  the country.

He is the most repulsive snake of free state partitionism.

Do they still call themselves the Republican Party? Micheal Martin is more partitionist than most in FG and that takes some doing.

Is it not a bit obscene that Pat Kenny provided both Leo and Micheal with an opportunity to tear into Sinn Féin when SF weren't allowed to be there to defend themselves? Surely this is fundamentally wrong?
It probably is but the tv heads decided to have a presidential style head to head between Martin and Varadker because one of them is going to be the next Taoiseach.
I imagine FF and FG would both like to have Mary Lou on the program as they’d both tear into her and her policies.
That’s one thing  they would agree on without a doubt. While they may dislike each other, they both fear the Shinners.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: magpie seanie on January 23, 2020, 04:27:55 PM
http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp (http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/taxes-stem-irelands-rising-inequality-claims-esri/ar-BBZeLCm?ocid=ientp)



Twenty-something leftie civil servant in "no tax cuts for coping families!" shocker.


You're a gas ticket! So naive and clueless.

Any better retort than ad hominem insult? Thought not.


Don't be getting on your high horse when you made ridiculous inaccurate assumptions about me initially.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: five points on January 23, 2020, 04:30:38 PM
Don't be getting on your high horse when you made ridiculous inaccurate assumptions about me initially.

Bitterness is not an argument.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 05:03:02 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: weareros on January 23, 2020, 05:55:42 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it’s for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 23, 2020, 05:59:58 PM
If there is publicly owned land available for 100,000 houses why not use 3 quarters of it for affordable houses for sale at cost prices. Have clawbacks etc by all means.
Now if put to tender how much would it cost per house for say 100 no frills houses on e.g an 8 acre site? No VAT as purchaser will be paying that on the finished product.
The other quarter can be used for social and/or tenant purchase houses.

One way or the other the new Government has to seriously and in workable practical manner address the housing issue instead of hiding behind an ideology.
Most young people who get up early in the morning or indeed work all sorts of unsocial hours cannot afford to buy a house, cannot afford to rent a flat or house, cannot get the deposit required together, or can't get a high enough mortgage to afford housing where the jobs are.
The FG "average income" of 80k per person can but most young people are lucky to be earning half that.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Mikhail Prokhorov on January 23, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it’s for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.

well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 07:04:58 PM
well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.

That's the whole point, isn't it, after that time you have somewhere to live!

Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: Rossfan on January 23, 2020, 07:11:19 PM
Looks like Shinners to take Pringle's seat i nDún na nGall de réir pobal breith déanta ag TG4.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: armaghniac on January 23, 2020, 07:13:09 PM
Looks like Shinners to take Pringle's seat i nDún na nGall de réir pobal breith déanta ag TG4.

I note to that Peter Casey gets feck all, which has to be good thing on balance.


Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: RadioGAAGAA on January 23, 2020, 07:48:34 PM
Is there a massive demand for housing outside of Dublin (and its commuter towns)?

Surely the questions should be along the lines of:

1. Is the population of Ireland rising so quickly that there is a shortage of space?
   1.(a) If not, is it that external investors are pricing the indigenous people out of houses?
      1.(a)(i) If so, then introduce laws that make foreign holding of rental property in Ireland prohibitively expensive for the prospective landlord.
      1.(a)(ii) If not, then goto Q2
   1.(b) If yes, housing density within the cities needs to increase.

2. Is the demand rising uniformly across the country or is it concentrated in certain areas (i.e. Dublin)?
   2.(a)If uniform, then the number of new builds need to increase
   2.(b)If concentrated, then what can be done to more evenly spread demand around the country? Tax incentives? Better infrastructure? Education campuses?


Its not the "price of rent" or "price of housing" you need to tackle with some bullsh|t simpleton law that limits the price of X or Y - its the reasons behind the change.
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: macdanger2 on January 23, 2020, 11:25:23 PM
Way to approach this is by making planning consents conditional on 20% affordable housing.

Absolutely not, this is the kind of wrong thinking that has country the way it is.
If you have this kind of 20% condition then you are putting the cost of that housing on the other 80% who are people not much different than the lucky few who get the affordable housing.

If public housing is desireable then every taxpayer should contribute to it, not just those buying their first house who are less well able to fund it.

While I understand that view, in the case of cities like Dublin you need the artists, the wait staff, those who provide various services, to be able to live there otherwise you force on them a poor quality of life and the city loses too. I think if we can build more rental high rises (and sales), it’s for the better of society if you allocate a certain percentage to low income and means test the applications. I think rent freeze is a terrible and populist idea by Sinn Fein and instead what should be done is a certain amount of rent stabilised apartments like they do in New York. As I said in previous posts we need to partner better with good property developers to solve this. Ged rid of obsession with owning. Put the bitteen of money in some index funds and you will get a far better return instead of the Mammy Philosophy of you need to own a home.

well said, people are obsessed with getting a mortgage. all that does is make you a slave to the bank for 30 years, liable for all the bills, maintenance, upkeep, etc. After that time you will be lucky to break even with all the interest paid, but you still need somewhere to live. Pay rent monthly and grow your money smartly in other areas, pay into your pension etc. Plus if you rent you can move anywhere quickly if you want to for work, family etc. A house/ apt is a noose that strangles young people and makes solicitors, estate agents and property funds rich.

The European model of renting for life is okay so long as pensions are geared to allow people to afford to pay rent when they finish working. Currently, that's not possible for most pensioners in Ireland
Title: Re: 26 County General Election 2020
Post by: marty34 on January 24, 2020, 12:30:05 AM
Reunification is coming (even if Leo and FG don't like it) - SF will be central to that along with others - they deserve their place on the debate.

The Island will prosper in the long run - sure there will be some possible economic downside in the short term - however EU and UK money could offset some of this. So anyone with children - if you want the best for them and their children reunification is what that looks like and with that goes accepting the fact that SF are a main political party north and south.

SF nothing more than a protest vote. Fringe party at best. Left wing communists who if we're let anywhere near the fiscal leavers would bankrupt the country for years.

Who's the SDLP canvassing for this election?

Eastwood's Fine Failure or Durkan's Fine Gael?  Both are two sides of the same coin!!


Ironic people talking about the economy and running the country when the children's hospital will be approx. £200 million, maybe more when completed, after what was the original cost - someone fill that figure in for me.

Oh yeah, they are great at economics alright.

Don't get me started on rolling out the broadband across the country - sure best way would be to tender for it.  Oh no, we'll just offer it to one company for a bankload of money...no tendering required.  Great economic sense alright.

No lectures please on the economic ability of the big two.

Whatever. At least you can guarantee it will be electable and accountable politicians taking decisions. Not a bundle of provisionals in the Felons club.
SF don't operate like any normal political party. Those who are elected in SF aren't allowed to take decisions. That's not democracy.

No answer to who the SDLP is backing this election then?

Is it F Failure's Durkan of FF's Michael 'sit on the fence' Martin?

By the way, how's Colum getting on with Brexit? - has he stopped it yet? I'm tired waiting on the update.

He's running Stormont from London after giving out to previous leaders that this shouldn't be the case.