I'm invovled in a discussion on Irish history and the needs for a United Ireland. Historically I can hold my own, but on economic matters, well lets say I'm not great. So lads - and some of you are white collar nerds etc ;D - can you give me any pointers to the long term inevitably and how the country would be better off united ??
Also, since I'll have partionists/west brits etc opposing me, could you give me the negatives of partition economically ??
The one currency (euro) would help promote cross boarder trade/investment etc.
Negatives
Expensive the unification of Germany cost billions
The North is a basket case economy ,nearly entirely supported by the state
The possible cost of security a loyalist counter war
Integration of the two systems could take years
Positives
No border would lower costs by revenue
Integrated developed
The whole economy of south armagh would collapse as no border = no smuggling!
North would benefit from 12.5% corporate tax rate rather than current UK rate.
The downsides:
The cost of integrating services would be huge.
The education system would need to be overhauled.
Unionists could hold the balance of power in any new parliament with about 20% of the vote and may disrupt changes.
Also the North's unproductive economy would be exposed - the lack of innovation and entrepreneurship, the dependency on handouts, a less rounded education system that you receive from Britain.
There could also be a brain drain if there is a large departure of Unionists from top civil service positions or other key knowledge holding posts.
The benefits:
Tourism would eventually improve
Marketing the island abroad as a place to do business would be easier
Tax evasion and smuggling would cease and increase government revenue
The country would be in a financial mess. The economy of the 6 counties is highly dependant on handouts from the english gov. I dont know what the figure for public sector/civil service employment exactly is in the north but it would be unsustainable for the rest of Ireland to support them. There would have to be major cut backs to some of the public services enjoyed by the people of the north eg the NHS would have to be thrown out. All in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way? The irish gov. could certainly not afford a united Ireland - even before the current economic crisis. The only ones that would agree to a UI in my opinion would be the English obviously from a financial perspective.
QuoteAll in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way?
Well if they wouldn't they're not nationalists.
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:07:39 PM
QuoteAll in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way?
Well if they wouldn't they're not nationalists.
I'd say if you asked most of them to choose - they'd keep the status quo - money speaks all languages! And you'd have to agree with them - eg to road tax a car in ROI is €560. Equvalent car in the north under the english system is £135 stg! Cars cheaper to buy. VAT rate is 3.5% less than the Irish rate. Stamp duty rates much lower. Price of drink in pubs and hotels is much less in the 6 counties. It goes on and on!
Quote from: comethekingdom on October 13, 2008, 10:16:58 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:07:39 PM
QuoteAll in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way?
Well if they wouldn't they're not nationalists.
I'd say if you asked most of them to choose - they'd keep the status quo - money speaks all languages! And you'd have to agree with them - eg to road tax a car in ROI is €560. Equvalent car in the north under the english system is £135 stg! Cars cheaper to buy. VAT rate is 3.5% less than the Irish rate. Stamp duty rates much lower. Price of drink in pubs and hotels is much less in the 6 counties. It goes on and on!
So? I'm a northern nationalist I'd vote for a United Ireland no matter how out of pocket I'd be.
If you got a chance then would you vote for Britain to govern the whole of Ireland again?
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: comethekingdom on October 13, 2008, 10:16:58 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:07:39 PM
QuoteAll in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way?
Well if they wouldn't they're not nationalists.
I'd say if you asked most of them to choose - they'd keep the status quo - money speaks all languages! And you'd have to agree with them - eg to road tax a car in ROI is €560. Equvalent car in the north under the english system is £135 stg! Cars cheaper to buy. VAT rate is 3.5% less than the Irish rate. Stamp duty rates much lower. Price of drink in pubs and hotels is much less in the 6 counties. It goes on and on!
So? I'm a northern nationalist I'd vote for a United Ireland no matter how out of pocket I'd be.
If you got a chance then would you vote for Britain to govern the whole of Ireland again?
No way! But what we never had we could never miss (eg NHS). All I ever hear from people from the north say when I meet them is that the south is fierce dear and they dont know how we can afford to live there
Quote from: comethekingdom on October 13, 2008, 10:25:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: comethekingdom on October 13, 2008, 10:16:58 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:07:39 PM
QuoteAll in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way?
Well if they wouldn't they're not nationalists.
I'd say if you asked most of them to choose - they'd keep the status quo - money speaks all languages! And you'd have to agree with them - eg to road tax a car in ROI is €560. Equvalent car in the north under the english system is £135 stg! Cars cheaper to buy. VAT rate is 3.5% less than the Irish rate. Stamp duty rates much lower. Price of drink in pubs and hotels is much less in the 6 counties. It goes on and on!
So? I'm a northern nationalist I'd vote for a United Ireland no matter how out of pocket I'd be.
If you got a chance then would you vote for Britain to govern the whole of Ireland again?
No way! But what we never had we could never miss (eg NHS). All I ever hear from people from the north say when I meet them is that the south is fierce dear and they dont know how we can afford to live there
Average salaries in the south are higher than the north. Its all relative.
QuoteAnd you'd have to agree with them - eg to road tax a car in ROI is €560. Equvalent car in the north under the english system is £135 stg! Cars cheaper to buy.
These are just variations, there is little mention of things like rates which swing the other way. The only issue is the overall level of taxation, you can divide it up whatever way people want. Car tax goes to local councils you could introduce rates and lower car tax.
Exactly armaghniac. I had this discussion in work the other day. A lad was complaining because his bin charges for the year had gone up to 390 euros. I explained to him that when I lived in Belfast my rates for the year were £1750. He couldn't believe it. Also when we first moved down I got car insurance quotes for north and south. The quote in the north was around £700 whereas the insurance down here was 380 euros!!! You can compare all you like,but take it from me we have a better standard of living in Cork than we ad in Belfast. An example of how there isn't a whole pile of difference, we would go out to a local place for food. Your average steak meal with dessert and bottle of wine for me and Mrs BC would cost around 85 euros. Nothing too fancy mind you, just nice and tasty. We went to a similar style place in Cushendall the last time we were up. We got the exact same type of meal and had no change out of £60. Do the maths and you will see that there is little difference.
It will happen in the next 5 years, but a closer link to Europe will be how it happens. That will only happen though if the Tories do not win the election. That may just be the case.
I wouldn't necessarily agree with that Trevor, cameron still does not instill much confidence in middle England. Brown may just scrap it, though it will be his last moment as leader as he is on the way out no matter what happens. It's amazing how Bertie and Tony got out just at the right time, lucky or political masters?
Bit of both really, the writing was on the wall for a long time regarding the economy, we had it too good for too long. Its time for a regime change in the UK, New Labia have had their time, the Tories will get in and middle England will bleat and tell everyone how much better things are now than under Tory Blair, they will win another election 4 years down the line, win another 4 or 5 years later by a greatly reduced margin and then time for the other side to get in at the next.
Labour are leaderless at the minute, Brown doesnt have a clue, a bit like Cowen really, but probably more unpopular. Neither are born leaders, whereas their predecessors were. Bertie was a chancer, but sure we all loved the oul rogue.
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:20:06 PM
Quote from: comethekingdom on October 13, 2008, 10:16:58 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 13, 2008, 10:07:39 PM
QuoteAll in all - romantic as it may look to most nationalists, would they really give up all their freebees from the english and pay their own way?
Well if they wouldn't they're not nationalists.
I'd say if you asked most of them to choose - they'd keep the status quo - money speaks all languages! And you'd have to agree with them - eg to road tax a car in ROI is €560. Equvalent car in the north under the english system is £135 stg! Cars cheaper to buy. VAT rate is 3.5% less than the Irish rate. Stamp duty rates much lower. Price of drink in pubs and hotels is much less in the 6 counties. It goes on and on!
So? I'm a northern nationalist I'd vote for a United Ireland no matter how out of pocket I'd be.
so would i pints, anyway over time things would even out and the 2 systems would blend. anyone hear of east germany lately?
Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on October 13, 2008, 10:54:34 PM
Exactly armaghniac. I had this discussion in work the other day. A lad was complaining because his bin charges for the year had gone up to 390 euros. I explained to him that when I lived in Belfast my rates for the year were £1750. He couldn't believe it. Also when we first moved down I got car insurance quotes for north and south. The quote in the north was around £700 whereas the insurance down here was 380 euros!!! You can compare all you like,but take it from me we have a better standard of living in Cork than we ad in Belfast. An example of how there isn't a whole pile of difference, we would go out to a local place for food. Your average steak meal with dessert and bottle of wine for me and Mrs BC would cost around 85 euros. Nothing too fancy mind you, just nice and tasty. We went to a similar style place in Cushendall the last time we were up. We got the exact same type of meal and had no change out of £60. Do the maths and you will see that there is little difference.
It will happen in the next 5 years, but a closer link to Europe will be how it happens. That will only happen though if the Tories do not win the election. That may just be the case.
Tut tut brokencrossbar >:( You know how those owc people dont like facts that challenge their thinking.
Quote from: Trevor Hill on October 13, 2008, 11:27:26 PM
The Tories are almost guaranteed to win the next election. Gordon Clown has seen to that.
Wouldn't agree. This economic uncertainty is a godsend for Brown.
Quoteso would i pints, anyway over time things would even out and the 2 systems would blend. anyone hear of east germany lately?
East Germany is not that relevant, the communist economic system was totally different and closed off from the West. The general conduct of the economy in Ireland, North and South, is pretty similar apart from things related to taxes and governments. Things change, when I was a student everyone thought people in the North had it easy because they didn't have to pay for university, in recent years it has been the other way around. These arrangements can change in fa fairly short space of time.
Also East Germany collapsed suddenly and the transitional arrangements were not always good ones for long term convergence. The two parts of Ireland will have a much longer courtship.
Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on October 13, 2008, 10:54:34 PM
An example of how there isn't a whole pile of difference, we would go out to a local place for food. Your average steak meal with dessert and bottle of wine for me and Mrs BC would cost around 85 euros. Nothing too fancy mind you, just nice and tasty. We went to a similar style place in Cushendall the last time we were up. We got the exact same type of meal and had no change out of £60. Do the maths and you will see that there is little difference.
Eating out probably isn't the most relevant benchmark as it would be such a small proportion of your expenditure (for most people). It's petrol prices, utility bills, taxes, car prices, property prices, visits to the doctor, medicines etc that are the big differences.
But as for food, i generally find it more expensive to eat out in the south. You'be probably be better to compare eateries in the city as such places are often more expensive in the county (e.g. Cushendall).
Quote from: Ash Smoker on October 13, 2008, 09:55:28 PM
The downsides:
The cost of integrating services would be huge.
The education system would need to be overhauled.
Unionists could hold the balance of power in any new parliament with about 20% of the vote and may disrupt changes.
Also the North's unproductive economy would be exposed - the lack of innovation and entrepreneurship, the dependency on handouts, a less rounded education system that you receive from Britain.
There could also be a brain drain if there is a large departure of Unionists from top civil service positions or other key knowledge holding posts.
The benefits:
Tourism would eventually improve
Marketing the island abroad as a place to do business would be easier
Tax evasion and smuggling would cease and increase government revenue
A clean out of civil service posts wouldn't necessarily be a negative. Plus, there'd be no need for duplication of departments, so there'd only be one Finance ministry etc - the loss of a few senior positions mightn't be that big of a problem.
There is no economic argument for a United Ireland, nor should there be, particularly within the context of the European Community. If economic factors are to be used as a justification for sovereignty or non-sovereignty, then we should accept absorption into the wealthiest state willing to have us. The idea of doing so seems preposterous, given our history, but i would not bet against the willingness of the citizens of the failing Celtic Tiger to consider it.
Quote from: Maguire01 on October 14, 2008, 09:26:02 PM
Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on October 13, 2008, 10:54:34 PM
An example of how there isn't a whole pile of difference, we would go out to a local place for food. Your average steak meal with dessert and bottle of wine for me and Mrs BC would cost around 85 euros. Nothing too fancy mind you, just nice and tasty. We went to a similar style place in Cushendall the last time we were up. We got the exact same type of meal and had no change out of £60. Do the maths and you will see that there is little difference.
Eating out probably isn't the most relevant benchmark as it would be such a small proportion of your expenditure (for most people). It's petrol prices, utility bills, taxes, car prices, property prices, visits to the doctor, medicines etc that are the big differences.
But as for food, i generally find it more expensive to eat out in the south. You'be probably be better to compare eateries in the city as such places are often more expensive in the county (e.g. Cushendall).
I simply used it as an example as it is always one that is trotted out to me how expensive it is to eat out. And for what it is worth I am comparing proces in Kinsale, the gourmet capital of Ireland(apparently) to Cushendall, which is not! As for the rest of the points you make, petrol is cheaper in the south, despite what people suggest we actuallt pay less on oour phone and electricity tan my sister would in the north for a similar sized house, taxes are much of a muchness and you do not get the same benefit in the north as a PAYE employee for tax back on GP visits, Bin charges etc, car prices I give you that one, but it is easy enough to import and still save money(particularly with the current strenght of the euro against the STG) property prices are higher but that is readjsuting at an alarming rate where we are, and I presume elsewhere. I agree that the visits to the doctor etc can be a big hit, but they are also not everyday costs. The simple fact is though that wages are markedly higher and the standard of living is better for us. For consummables like groceries it is more expensive but not back breakingly so. Things like Santa shopping will be done in the North, but sure it isn't that far away no matter where you live.
Panguar, the economic reason has to be the main reason as it is the only way that unionists will acede to it without a major fight. It will be within the context of a "European" solution but I firmly believe it is closer than many people expect.
Quote from: ONeill on October 14, 2008, 08:51:53 PM
Quote from: Trevor Hill on October 13, 2008, 11:27:26 PM
The Tories are almost guaranteed to win the next election. Gordon Clown has seen to that.
Wouldn't agree. This economic uncertainty is a godsend for Brown.
Middle England sees this as being mainly New Labours fault, they have spent way too much over the last 10 years in order to win votes and now the kitty is empty. Many people are in debt and its easier to blame the Government than to blame themselves. People were encouraged to get on the housing ladder, now many of those properties are almost worthless. Brown is seen as a clown in England and the Scottish electorate dont support him at an upcoming by election he will have nowhere else to hide. This is the man who sold of the UK gold reserves thinking that the price of gold would plummet. That same gold is now worth 500% more. The next election will be similar to when New Labour came to power in 1997, only this time none of us will be singing things can only get better.
With an 8c increase in petrol prices in RoI from tomorrow, how much cheaper will petrol be than in NI?
QuoteThere could also be a brain drain if there is a large departure of Unionists
A paradox if ever I read one. :P
The thread has addressed only the economic argument so far, with the exception of one or two declarations in favour of unity whatever the economic cost. Whether their arguments are right or wrong, the majority seem to consider that the economic outcome would be negative. I'd be interested to hear an airing of the present-day case for a united Ireland beyond the economic considerations., especially from those who are for it at any price.
Quote from: Hardy on October 15, 2008, 10:35:43 AM
The thread has addressed only the economic argument so far, with the exception of one or two declarations in favour of unity whatever the economic cost. Whether their arguments are right or wrong, the majority seem to consider that the economic outcome would be negative. I'd be interested to hear an airing of the present-day case for a united Ireland beyond the economic considerations., especially from those who are for it at any price.
Well its is an economic thread , i'd suggest starting a new thread . :)
Good point! But I'd be afraid of my life to start a second thread.
Quote from: Hardy on October 15, 2008, 10:35:43 AM
The thread has addressed only the economic argument so far, with the exception of one or two declarations in favour of unity whatever the economic cost. Whether their arguments are right or wrong, the majority seem to consider that the economic outcome would be negative. I'd be interested to hear an airing of the present-day case for a united Ireland beyond the economic considerations., especially from those who are for it at any price.
I would suggest that those who talk down the economics do so out of their own particular ideology and not out of cold facts. The EU and US would pay money hand over fist for a United Ireland as it would show that conflict resolution processes work...
Well if an overall United Ireland has the quality of debate in this one, where the discussion seems to be about the rate of motor tax and petrol, then it won't shed much light on the subject.
I think thats a fair point by Ardmhachaabu. Any reunification would doubtless be assisted by the US and the UK wouldn't be able to withdraw funds completely all at once. They'd be happy financially to be getting rid so would probably be will to pump money in for a while after they leave.
So overall I would see some negative economic aspects in the short to medium term though probably not dire. Long term, if things stayed peaceful it should benefit everyone economically.
QuoteI would suggest that those who talk down the economics do so out of their own particular ideology and not out of cold facts.
I would suggest that those who talk up the sociology do so out of their own particular ideology and not out of cold facts.
Lets see how Ireland and the UK handle the economic crisis we are in before surmising who good or bad the economics of a united Ireland would be!
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 15, 2008, 11:23:38 AM
QuoteI would suggest that those who talk down the economics do so out of their own particular ideology and not out of cold facts.
I would suggest that those who talk up the sociology do so out of their own particular ideology and not out of cold facts.
Sociology? ???
Nope, just political facts. I suggest you engaging brain before quoting people verbatim and changing the odd word to suit yourself.
Quote from: armaghniac on October 15, 2008, 11:15:14 AM
Well if an overall United Ireland has the quality of debate in this one, where the discussion seems to be about the rate of motor tax and petrol, then it won't shed much light on the subject.
I suggest that such issues would figure high on most people's agendas.
In hard economic times people are more concerned about providing a livelihood for themselves and their families than they are about what happened in the past.
I've heard from a number of loyalist sources, who are reasonably pragmatic folks, that they see a united Ireland on the cards inside of fifty years.
I'm using 50 as a ballpark figure here; at least two out of five would feel it will come about a lot sooner than that.
The Brits are finding it hard enough to make out for themselves and no longer require military bases in the region. My unionist contacts tell me they know very well that the vast majority of the British public don't feel any sort of solidarity or kinship with them. (Many don't even know they exist or give a hoot that they do, but that's another story.)
The reasoning here is that from an economic point of view, England would be glad to get rid of the whole sorry mess that is Norn Iron and shell out enough money in the short term to bring a united island about.
Most people down south aren't too happy at being saddled with the likes of , say, Neil Anderson or his equivalents on the other side of the political fence either.
But there is one overriding factor that is pushing all elements on the island together and that is the need to present a united front where it comes to attracting overseas investment.
The IDA and its counterpart up north have been canvassing together on this one for many years and their respective political bosses seem to think the same way. Money talks and multinational concerns don't take too kindly to possible political unrest or cross-border tariffs either.
When things start to pick up in the north again, it will be found that many prime sites in Belfast city centre and other towns around the north will be in the hands of foreign investors who bought them up for a song at the height of the troubles.
Even here in Dublin, without sectarian strife, foreign interests already own most of the city centre.
I think herein is the reason why Ireland will have to unite, whether any of us wants this or not.
It says something about the value system currently prevailing in the south, when so much of the emphasis on this discussion centres on second homes, wages and taxes. The appalling neglect of the Education and Health systems rates hardly a mention. The society that fails to properly cater for its young,old and sick, needs to take a long hard look at itself. The lack of investment, particularly in schools, during the years of plenty, is a national scandal. For a FF government, who who preached materialism and fostered greed ,to now appeal to peoples patriotic instincts and call for restraint and sacrifice, iis absolute hypocricsy.
Sorry, above posted in wrong thread, meant for Budget thread
Quote from: Hardy on October 15, 2008, 10:35:43 AM
The thread has addressed only the economic argument so far, with the exception of one or two declarations in favour of unity whatever the economic cost. Whether their arguments are right or wrong, the majority seem to consider that the economic outcome would be negative. I'd be interested to hear an airing of the present-day case for a united Ireland beyond the economic considerations., especially from those who are for it at any price.
I don't think there are to many of them around Hardy. There are many willing to pay a very high price though. I suppose it is equal to those willing to charge a very high price. Then again it could even be less, as the price whatever it is, has yet to be paid. You could argue that the price of partition has been paid though.
Well thanks for the replies lads, though I hoped more light could be shed on the long term benefits of a greater economic strength due to a greater population etc. The stupidity of having a border and two currencies on what should basically be a single economic unit. I know some will say you anwering your own question, but it's just vague observations and notions I heard down the years, apart from stating such, I've nothing to back it up. Maybe I'd better stick to arguing the historical aspects.