As anyone who opened this thread will probably know, I am not exactly the biggest fan of our present and possibly next taoiseach. Now, I have outlined my reasons many times in the various election threads, these reasons range from his deceit through to his incompetence (worst of all may be that he probably makes the Americans think that they could have done worse when they see him with Bush).
Now, it's obvious that I'm totally out of touch with what a large portion of the country feels, imo he swung the election for FF, for some reason people like him - why? Who knows, if you can give me some reasons, well, i might even start to see the light!!
He's a bit like John Major - likeable, pretty plain and down-to-earth, whatever his other faults and those of their parties.
Bertie's 2007 election success was a bit like John Major's in 1992 - largely unexpected, much of it down the man himself and a case of the voters not being prepared to risk being better off against something untried.
He's certainly down to earth..meet him in a bar in dublin (fegans) few years ago bought us a drink and talked away for an hour, a gentleman
A lot of people i know it was more of a case of disliking Enda Kenny more than Bertie rather than liking Bertie more
He's certainly got charisma, which counts for a lot. And he seems quite competent - those things that are not perfect like the health service, people think there's not much politicians can do other than t**ker at the edges.
Quote from: GweylTah on May 27, 2007, 01:28:32 PM
He's a bit like John Major - likeable, pretty plain and down-to-earth, whatever his other faults and those of their parties.
What!! What the f**k are you on? Major had all the charisma of a turd, and none of the substance. A much, much less affable and capable politician was Major -- this is the individual who
failed an aptitude test to be a bus conductor for chrissake! And
no one could ever describe Major as "the best, the most skillful, the most devious and the most cunning of them all" :-\
Agree with FOSB. At the end of the day we could use the question another British Tory PM used to ask ; Is he one of us ?In Bertie's case , he is .Has flaws but enjoys the craic and you would smile if you met him.
I appreciate that put out this 'man of the people' persona, great craic and affable etc, but is that reality, or is it the case that he thinks you have a vote? He's not a person who you'd like to rub up the wrong way, he has a terrible temper, which he struggles at times to control - it seems to have been surfacing a lot more recently too.
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 27, 2007, 03:37:29 PM
I appreciate that put out this 'man of the people' persona, great craic and affable etc, but is that reality, or is it the case that he thinks you have a vote? He's not a person who you'd like to rub up the wrong way, he has a terrible temper, which he struggles at times to control - it seems to have been surfacing a lot more recently too.
I think he's an extremely shrewd operator BBXV, i.e., he knows exactly when to turn the righteous indignation up a notch or two (with outbursts to match), and when to act the wounded innocent, with the world and his mother on his pitiful case, and when to play the competent but guileless ingenue. To be fair though, I genuinely don't think that he's materialistically driven to any great extent, despite the well-publicised allegations, i.e., opulent trappings of office do not appeal to him.
I think he's an extremely shrewd operator BBXV, i.e., he knows exactly when to turn the righteous indignation up a notch or two (with outbursts to match), and when to act the wounded innocent, with the world and his mother on his pitiful case, and when to play the competent but guileless ingenue. To be fair though, I genuinely don't think that he's materialistically driven to any great extent, despite the well-publicised allegations, i.e., opulent trappings of office do not appeal to him.
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Id agree with that, his lifestyle is modest in comparison to some predecessors and even current TDs, doesnt seem to be any material gain. His holidays revolve around a few days in Kerry after two days at the Galway Races - no regular trips to the south of France there.
People see alot of Bertie in themselves I guess, the guy from Drumcondra who rose to be Taoiseach, has his flaws much like everyone else and is by all accounts an affable and genuinely nice guy
QuoteA lot of people i know it was more of a case of disliking Enda Kenny more than Bertie rather than liking Bertie more
What is it that people don't like about Kenny ?
Even FF TD's were saying during the election that while they thought he lacked certain attributes, they couldn't question his integrity and honesty ... and yet the perception among the public was that you couldn't trust him because of the way he talked and held himself when in formal media settings.
The reason Kenny won't be Taoiseach is cos he got his figures wrong on a couple of occasions during the leaders debate from which people formed an awful lot of conclusions and opinions. FFS, "the best politician in Ireland" Brian Cowen when on Primetime a week ago got his figures wrong about the cost of public-private beds, got his figures wrong about Ireland's carbon footprint and persisted in standing by the figures he knew to be wrong re how many people would benefit under the respective FF and FG tax proposals.
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on May 27, 2007, 03:47:27 PM
I think he's an extremely shrewd operator BBXV, i.e., he knows exactly when to turn the righteous indignation up a notch or two (with outbursts to match), and when to act the wounded innocent, with the world and his mother on his pitiful case, and when to play the competent but guileless ingenue. To be fair though, I genuinely don't think that he's materialistically driven to any great extent, despite the well-publicised allegations, i.e., opulent trappings of office do not appeal to him.
Yeah, I agree it's not money that drives him - it's power. I also agree with you about his whole righteous indignation act, he was at it again on friday night - surely people can see that he's playing them?
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 27, 2007, 04:49:19 PM
I also agree with you about his whole righteous indignation act, he was at it again on friday night - surely people can see that he's playing them?
Not necessarily I'd say, it seems that the electorate will believe what they would like to believe to a certain extent given a half-chance, and enthusiastic endorsements from Clinton and Blair was a masterstroke by the FFers, where people would like to believe that someone who is thought of so highly on the international stage should surely then be suitable for the office of Taoiseach on the (relatively modest) national stage.
QuoteA lot of people i know it was more of a case of disliking Enda Kenny more than Bertie rather than liking Bertie more
Those people were either heavily biased or the type to judge a man based on the odd interview.
I've met both Enda and Bertie and can see why people quickly warm to both of them when they meet them in person. They have the knack of putting you at ease straight away and making you feel as if they see you as an equal. Off the record most business and union leaders and even hacks will tell you that they like both of them also.
Harney and Hanafin on the other hand..... ::)
Quote from: blast05 on May 27, 2007, 04:36:09 PM
What is it that people don't like about Kenny ?
Even FF TD's were saying during the election that while they thought he lacked certain attributes, they couldn't question his integrity and honesty ... and yet the perception among the public was that you couldn't trust him because of the way he talked and held himself when in formal media settings.
The reason Kenny won't be Taoiseach is cos he got his figures wrong on a couple of occasions during the leaders debate from which people formed an awful lot of conclusions and opinions. FFS, "the best politician in Ireland" Brian Cowen when on Primetime a week ago got his figures wrong about the cost of public-private beds, got his figures wrong about Ireland's carbon footprint and persisted in standing by the figures he knew to be wrong re how many people would benefit under the respective FF and FG tax proposals.
People think Enda Kenny is a bit of a drip. It's not about lack of trust, integrity or even competence, it's about lacking a certain gravitas. Personally, I think this is unfair. I said to anyone who would listen (not many then) when Michael Noonan was elected leader of FG that they'd regret not choosing Enda. He's done an amazing job in turning them into a serious political force again and if he can keep Labour out of government, thus creating a coherent anti-government block come the next election, he will be Taoiseach. Providing he's not shafted from within first . . .
NB the fact that he boxed John Deasy around the ears has not influenced me in the slightest. Ahem.
Last October it was tears on the TV and "leave my family out of it".
Today, well just look at the front page of the Independent.
Like him ? I loathe him
I'm depressed this weekend when I realise my own ambitions and hopes for the country but more importandly principles, seem to be totally out of synch with the majority of people. Bertie has the "X" factor that all successful politicians need to have to have mass appeal. He comes across as the average lad who you'd like to have a pint with and a chat. He genuinely loves his sport and uses and manipulates the media fantastically well. The stuff re his family churns my stomach but anyway. There are plenty of nice affable lads from all over the country who have the same interest and personality traits as our taioseach but that doesn't mean they are fit to lead the country. He is a very influential negotiator and I think that is his greatest skill and he has the ability to never have a postiion of principle on any of the major issues facing the country butthe people are happy with that and the job that he and his government has done. I genuinely believe he hasn't taken bribes as overtly as his predecessor or as some of his cabninet colleagues and his lifestyle is certainly not ostentatious but anyone who has been involved in FF politics over the last 25 years as much as he has knows where the skeletons are. Reember him searching every tree in North County Dublin for Rambos funny money. I I've met him on a few occasions and found him to be grand but then again I never got into a deep political philosphical discussion with him.I'll be on the same side as him next Sunday in Croker!!!!
Ah now blast, in fairness you're giving him a raw deal there. He's been badgered to pose for a family photo since the twins were born, and he said he would do so immediately after the election.
Sure it's the papers making a big deal out of him being a grandad.
There's a pile of other stuff you can throw at him, no doubt about it, but I think you're being too hard for that photo.
dunno bogball. I would expect its different things for people.
I cant stand the little fat liar, but I would still prefer him running the country over Enda - cos Enda just seems like he's all talk and no substance behind it (he prob isnt bad, but comes across badly to me at least).
I voted to retain the status quo, no change in gov (well FF staying in power, I am quite happy the pd's have disintegrated).
thats my opinion and my reasoning behind voting FF.
I'd much prefer if they had another night of the long knives and ousted ahearn - much like they did to charlie and poor old Albert.
Cowen would be a far better man - though I think he is almost too straight and unyielding to be a good taoiseach.
Cowen needs some serious media training. I know he's a dead sound fella and people across the political spectrum will tell you that, but he just comes across as a brusque, grumpy fecker on TV, the odd funny comment aside. It's not necessarily a character flaw to be a bit rough around the edges on the Telly, but in this day of 'Presidential' type campaigns, and airbrushed posters, the big Man would be a little harsh for the general population I think.
Enda Kenny seems to be the polar opposite. Perfect hair, too sweet by half, and continually talking about his contract with the people. He was too much the other way I think, and genuinely needs to become a bit more of a pit bull when he's attacking the government and much more confident when he is putting forward his own proposals.
I think Bertie will be the next Taoiseach. I think Cowan will take over in about 2009, and I think if Enda changes a little in his demeanour and the way he puts his message across, he will be Taoiseach in 2012 if we have any economic downturn or people begin to feel the pinch because of interest rates or inflation.
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 28, 2007, 10:06:16 AM
Cowen needs some serious media training. I know he's a dead sound fella and people across the political spectrum will tell you that, but he just comes across as a brusque, grumpy fecker on TV, the odd funny comment aside. It's not necessarily a character flaw to be a bit rough around the edges on the Telly, but in this day of 'Presidential' type campaigns, and airbrushed posters, the big Man would be a little harsh for the general population I think.
Enda Kenny seems to be the polar opposite. Perfect hair, too sweet by half, and continually talking about his contract with the people. He was too much the other way I think, and genuinely needs to become a bit more of a pit bull when he's attacking the government and much more confident when he is putting forward his own proposals.
I think Bertie will be the next Taoiseach. I think Cowan will take over in about 2009, and I think if Enda changes a little in his demeanour and the way he puts his message across, he will be Taoiseach in 2012 if we have any economic downturn or people begin to feel the pinch because of interest rates or inflation.
I have no doubts about Cowen and his intelligence and how he can manage money and the country.
The potential problem I think he could have is down to his decency.
Bertie is a two faced fecker and will say whatever people want to hear, will even say the complete opposite to appease opposite factions in a dispute etc.
This though helps him broker deals as he seems to not care what people think and the opinions people will have if they stop to think what kind of a liar/bulls***er he is.
I think Cowen would not be as good in this kind of scenario. In this whingy kiss me @rse unprocedurlaised country , it could be difficult for him.
Quotewhingy kiss me @rse unprocedurlaised country
You said a pile there Lynchbhoy, fair play.
What you will find if you meet Enda Kenny is that he is not as straight collered as he looks on tv, he is probably suffering from his version on Beries anorack stage, but in Endas case, maybe a little too much starch in the shirts, nearly everyone who meets Enda likes him after, I don't like Bertie one bit then again I have never met him but I have been told he a bit the same.
Maybe coming close this election has given Enda the platform of further building his relationship with the Irish people, now they know who he is.
Its a bit unfortunate for him that he mixed up a few figures when the entire country was watching, but Cowan did it when alot less where watching, Im sure had it happened the other way around despite both men later proving their figures correct later, Enda would be Taoiseach by now.
I do believe that he has an outside chance of still becoming Taoiseach & by that very possibility he has left the option open to the Independents & Greens to go with him or scr€w FF in a deal just by the very outside chance that they might go with Enda.
Has anyone heard the news coming from the Tribunal this morning.
Don't want to say what it is, as I've only heard this second hand.
Without saying is Bertie in trouble or off the hook?
According to this. Possibly in trouble.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0528/mahon.html
Something smells fishy.....shellfishy?
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 28, 2007, 10:06:16 AM
Cowen needs some serious media training. I know he's a dead sound fella and people across the political spectrum will tell you that, but he just comes across as a brusque, grumpy fecker on TV, the odd funny comment aside. It's not necessarily a character flaw to be a bit rough around the edges on the Telly, but in this day of 'Presidential' type campaigns, and airbrushed posters, the big Man would be a little harsh for the general population I think.
Is he like the Republic's version of Gordon Brown?
Anyway, election out of the way, problems may be arising again for the Teflon Taoiseach.
All this financial stuff may well wear old Bertie down. He certainly seemed sick and tired of it on Friday evening on the TV. I've never seen him so drained looking.
If he goes, will we have an Offaly Taoiseach????
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 28, 2007, 01:37:03 PM
All this financial stuff may well wear old Bertie down. He certainly seemed sick and tired of it on Friday evening on the TV. I've never seen him so drained looking.
If he goes, will we have an Offaly Taoiseach????
Better than a Mayo one anyway
At the very best he is shady. I think everyone knows it but gives him the benefit of the doubt as the likable rogue.
How else can it be justified that the people of this country would elect a leader who was going to be up to his neck in a corruption tribunal 4 days later.. Or are we that naive??
Without doubt Cowen won this election for Bertie. He got stuck into the opposition in the final week which swung it in my book.
Quote from: Gnevin on May 28, 2007, 01:48:13 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 28, 2007, 01:37:03 PM
All this financial stuff may well wear old Bertie down. He certainly seemed sick and tired of it on Friday evening on the TV. I've never seen him so drained looking.
If he goes, will we have an Offaly Taoiseach????
Better than a Mayo one anyway
TOLD YA SO
Also I would not write off the Mayo Taoiseach yet, its going to get alot harder to join a Coalition for anyone with a Corrupt FF and an Offalyman who knew his Godfather was dodgey.
Quote from: AZOffaly on May 28, 2007, 01:37:03 PM
If he goes, will we have an Offaly Taoiseach????
John Bracken!
Fishead. There is no way , zero, that Enda Kenny will have enough seats to form a Government and become Taoiseach. Even if people like the Greens or the Labour Party get antsy at forming a government with FF under Bertie, the PDs (both of them) and the 'gene pool' Independents will be almost enough, just like in 1997, especially if Michael Lowry or Tony Gregory or Finian McGrath join up as well.
The Maths just don't add up for Fine Gael.
78 Fianna Fail
51 Fine Gael & 20 Labour & 6 Greens & 5 Independents & 2 PDs (or 4 Sinn Fein) would be all required to form a governement, and that motley crew wouldn't last 6 months, even IF the likes of Mary Harney, Jackie Healy Rae, Beverly Flynn and co would go with them.
Given the fact that Enda has said he will not deal with Sinn Fein, even losing Jackie Healy Rae will not give him the number he needs.
In my view at this point, the most likely combination is FF/PD/Ind like in 97. I thought before the election that this would not be a runner because I didn't think FF would win 78 seats.
After this, I think FF and the Greens would be next likely. Again, I thought this would unfeasible before the election because of FF numbers.
Then thirdly is the option I thought most likely before the election, a FF/Labour pact with either Bertie or Pat Rabbite getting the shaft. Lads like Howlin are mad to be in government, and deeply resented having to act as water carriers for Fine Gael. If there was a sniff of a deal there, you can bet your bottom dollar they'd be all over it like a rash, Rabbite or no Rabbite.
By the way, this election makes me think of 'The Life of Brian'. Substitute 'Progressive Democrats for PPFJ.
"Whatever happened to the Popular People's Front of Judea anyway?"
"He's over there"
Looks like Bertie is putting down a marker for his more likely bedfellows by sidling up to his least likely partners first.
From RTE.ie:
Talks on forming new Government to begin, Monday, 28 May 2007 14:14
Negotiations are due to get under way this week on the formation of a coalition government in the aftermath of the General Election.
The Independent TD, Finian McGrath, has said he believes Fianna Fáil is considering approaching the Labour Party to form a coalition government.
The Dublin North Central representative is one of five Independent TDs widely believed to be the subject of approaches from Fianna Fáil to help support a coalition government.
But Deputy McGrath along with fellow Independent TDs, Tony Gregory and Jackie Healy Rae confirmed today that they have had approaches from Fine Gael and Labour, and not from Fianna Fáil.
In an RTÉ radio interview this morning, Deputy McGrath said his political instinct was that Fianna Fáil could use approaches to Independent TDs as a smokescreen, while negotiating with the Labour Party behind the scenes.
Deputy Tony Gregory has also raised the prospect of one of the five Independent deputies being offered a seat at the cabinet table.
Bertie Ahern is in pole position to return as Taoiseach for a third consecutive term - the first man since Eamon de Valera to do so.
On Saturday, Mr Ahern said his first preference is to form a new coalition with the PDs and like-minded Independents - although given their depleted ranks the numbers are very tight.
He could seek a coalition deal with the Greens, which would be stronger numerically, but might require more policy change.
There is the outside bet of a deal with Labour, but the cost in terms of seats at the cabinet table would be higher.
Labour it is so.
Without Bertie and Pat.
Labour would want to heed the warning from PDs collapse. Steer clear of health and justice in the carve up for cabinet seats.
They wont be improved under this government and Labour would become the scapegoats and suffer a meltdown in next election.
In a double whammy it would mean even with another improvement Fine Gael couldnt find a big enough partner to challenge FF and no matter how much they mess up in the next 5 years in would go FF for a 4th term..
I don't think Labour will do it, for the reasons stated and I don't think it's FF's preferred option either - too many mercs foregone. I believe Bertie when he says he favours PDs and independents. He's averse to change and this worked before. Plus he has Harney to take care of Angola.
BTW, the stuff from the Tribunal this morning is what was leaked and published in the Mail on Sunday 3 or 4 Sundays ago. What's new to me is the story that Bertie has denied ever doing any dollar transactions, plus the extra detail that AIB has submitted its records for the branch in question on the day in question. On that day, when Bertie said Celia lodged £30K sterling, the total sterling transactions on record are £1,500-odd. But Celia's lodgement, apparently, equals exactly US$45K at the exchange rate of the day. It's going to be hard for Bertie to square the two stories.
QuoteIt's going to be hard for Bertie to square the two stories.
But sure nobody cares Hardy
The more this week continues the more I think we're heading for a hung dail.
Another election???
Quote from: Declan on May 28, 2007, 03:48:27 PM
QuoteIt's going to be hard for Bertie to square the two stories.
But sure nobody cares Hardy
I'm not sure what to think. It might not be that nobody cares, but that nobody believes the media, or at least people would rather consider a man innocent until proven guilty, rather than the other way round. We had someone on one of the threads here calling for Bertie to prove he's not corrupt, but most people think it should work the other way.
However, if he's caught out by the tribunal as having lied about his finances, after his repeated protestations of innocence and victimisation, it's hard to see how he could survive that, politically.
QuoteAnother election
Wouldn't that be brilliant!
Quote from: magpie seanie on May 28, 2007, 04:22:52 PM
QuoteAnother election
Wouldn't that be brilliant!
why not?
The mahon tribunal will need to go into recess again.
I think a government will be formed, Bertie will continue to fend off allegations, until he eventually crumbles. At that point the 2 PDs and the Indos will be full of righteous indignation until Brian Cowen is swiftly appointed Bertie's successor. Biffo will bang heads and everyone will settle down until Cowen becomes subject to a vicious drug rumour :D
QuoteThe mahon tribunal will need to go into recess again.
Sure don't hard-working barristers have to get holidays too?
For those of you who didn't hear it on Saturday morning, you should listen to the Last Word on Today FM.
They had Fintan O'Toole and Eoghan Harris on. Harris threw the rattle out of the pram big style its well worth a listen.
Relevance to this thread - Harris loves Bertie, I think he wants to have his babies!!!
Harris.
Now theres a man who'd never do a deal with the Shinners. Or Neil Jordan as a matter of fact.
Got a link to that debate?
Quote from: resdubwhite on May 28, 2007, 04:54:39 PM
Harris.
Now theres a man who'd never do a deal with the Shinners. Or Neil Jordan as a matter of fact.
Got a link to that debate?
http://www.todayfm.com/article.asp?id=15131
Probably on sometime between 5 and 6
Harris and O'Toole is on now, worth a listen
Quote from: Louth Exile on May 28, 2007, 04:56:33 PM
Quote from: resdubwhite on May 28, 2007, 04:54:39 PM
Harris.
Now theres a man who'd never do a deal with the Shinners. Or Neil Jordan as a matter of fact.
Got a link to that debate?
http://www.todayfm.com/article.asp?id=15131
Probably on sometime between 5 and 6
Cant find the Eoin Harris V Fintan O'Toole debate on that link, how do ya get it or does it get moved after a few days
QuoteThey had Fintan O'Toole and Eoghan Harris on. Harris threw the rattle out of the pram big style its well worth a listen.
I heard it on again last night, it was hilarious. Harris' fawning over Bertie does no favours for An Taoiseach at all, especially when he completely loses the plot (over his daft assertions being challenged).
http://www.todayfm.com/goout.asp?u=http://audio.todayfm.com/files/HARRIS-1.wma (http://www.todayfm.com/goout.asp?u=http://audio.todayfm.com/files/HARRIS-1.wma)
Here it is
He's a buffoon, no doubt, and his blustering outrage that another journalist has an agenda is laughably ironic. But he has Fintan O'Toole taped. "Let him waffle away for another two hours"
Loved it.
I thought it was particularly funny that he called O'Toole a 'waffler' - you couldn't make it up. :)
My favourite quotes from Harris were
"Oh you know!!!" (sounds like a litle girl)
" You gave it up, you're guilty" (Nah,Nah,Nah)
He further reinforced my opinion that the Sindo is a rag, he is rivalled only by Shane Ross for the title of "Chief Gobshite" at the paper, Ross was on Sam Smyth on the Sunday morning defending and applauding Harris's actions ::)
Quote from: Louth Exile on May 29, 2007, 11:45:19 AM
My favourite quotes from Harris were
"Oh you know!!!" (sounds like a litle girl)
" You gave it up, you're guilty" (Nah,Nah,Nah)
He further reinforced my opinion that the Sindo is a rag, he is rivalled only by Shane Ross for the title of "Chief Gobshite" at the paper, Ross was on Sam Smyth on the Sunday morning defending and applauding Harris's actions ::)
Sam Smyth is another BERKtie excusist.
The Irish Press never died it just had a reverse take over of the Irish Un-Independent of FF newspaper.