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Now that its inevitable that Fianna Fail will lead the next government who would you LIKE see form the next government?

Dont think theres any point in offering any other alternatives if we are realistic

I go for what it will be - FF/PD & Independents.

Greens are looneys who want to stop building roads and one off houses. That won't fly. Labour's price would be too high in terms of Ministries and head wrecking.

We should also throw in an addition class for Inda. He really struggles with his figures doesn't he?

I suppose it's good in a way that he is so committed (Enda) in trying to form the next government, and seeing through his 'Alliance for Change', but he's beginning to look faintly silly now.

His Coalition of Fine Gael/Labour/Greens/PDs/Independents would last as long as it took me to write this sentence.

I agree with whomever said above that if Enda can just keep Labour and the Labour lads mad to be in power, out of coalition, then he would have a great platform for the next election..

Agree with you seanie.
However ( I cant believe I am standing up for Inda) but poor old kenny , under the spotlights in RTE, was rushed into an answer while thinking on his feet, and uttered an incorrect figure. He was too inexperienced and afraid to correct himself and ahearn pushed on with turning the conversation back each time to highlight this mistake - making poor enda look even worse.

Well he's had plenty of time to add up the numbers of seats and is still getting it wrong. He's looking silly at the moment.

The best coalition would be Fianna Fail and Fine Gael :D There's feck all difference in their policies, and they are both preferrable , economically, to any of the Centre Left/ Left parties.

Of course the first chance to shaft each other would be taken and the government would fall in record time.

QuoteWe should also throw in an addition class for Inda. He really struggles with his figures doesn't he?

The post i made on another thread is also applicable here:

FFS, "the best politician in Ireland" Brian Cowen when on Primetime a week ago got his figures wrong about the cost of public-private beds, got his figures wrong about Ireland's carbon footprint and persisted in standing by the figures he knew to be wrong re how many people would benefit under the respective FF and FG tax proposals.

So can Cowen sit on those addition classes too Seanie ?

Cowen got one figure wrong and has a history of getting a lot of them right (when you take into account the deliberate hedging on the cautious side). Enda is setting a trend the other way.

I know it looks likely but hate the idea of FF/PD/Indos. This would guarantee that bloody co-location and after the electorate disassembling the PD's what right do they have to get back into power. It would be great for Tip North, Dublin Central and Dublin North central (well face it BEV CF is going to be declared bankrupt and they can rely on JKR without giving him anything)

FF aren't going to give up enough ministerial cars to bring FF/Lab into the picture. I also think it would be a disasterous move for Labour, they would end up losing seats in five years time as a result.

I would favour FF/GP but the single largest issue that will prevent this is the Greens seeking to ban corporate donations and clean up politics. FF will never close the tent at the Galway races. Nobody is going to tell spliffo how to clean up his act!!

Has anyone else heard that Bev is to go to court soon for a bankruptcy order.

This could have some effect on the setup of the new government...

QuoteCowen got one figure wrong and has a history of getting a lot of them right (when you take into account the deliberate hedging on the cautious side).

I listed 3 examples on 1 edition of Primetime. Saying he got one figure wrong is wrong.
In all the FF confusion about the cost of the public-private beds, they have the lost the right to have a go at Kenny for getting figures wrong during the leaders debate.
As for "deliberate hedging on the cautious side"  .... it is this cautious approach that has brainwashed people into thinking that FF are doing a good job on the economy. When they announce yet another exchequer surplus its "oh look, we've done such a good job managing the economy that we've a pile of extra money left over and were going to giev it all back to you" and yet people buy it time after time. If the economy was well managed then all the new jobs which have been added over the last 5 years would not have been restricted to the contruction sector and the public sector. Knowledge based economy my arse

For the record, Bevs husband is worth over 10 million ... whether that makes a difference or not.

What is Berties problem with Sinn Fein?  If they are fit for government in the North why not the south?

Quote from: blast05 on May 28, 2007, 11:13:19 AM
For the record, Bevs husband is worth over 10 million ... whether that makes a difference or not.

ex husband.

Blast05, Bev is not married, I assume its her partner you are on about TJG?? There is not a hope in hell of her being declared bankrupt.

Quote from: intoDwest on May 28, 2007, 11:21:49 AM
Blast05, Bev is not married, I assume its her partner you are on about TJG?? There is not a hope in hell of her being declared bankrupt.

Does she not owe something in the region of 2.5 million.

QuoteI listed 3 examples on 1 edition of Primetime. Saying he got one figure wrong is wrong.

Was out of the country and didn't see said programme so I'll bow to your better judgement. Apologies.

QuoteAs for "deliberate hedging on the cautious side"  .... it is this cautious approach that has brainwashed people into thinking that FF are doing a good job on the economy. When they announce yet another exchequer surplus its "oh look, we've done such a good job managing the economy that we've a pile of extra money left over and were going to giev it all back to you" and yet people buy it time after time.

Yeah, agreed. That always makes me laugh. Democracy isn't perfect.

QuoteIf the economy was well managed then all the new jobs which have been added over the last 5 years would not have been restricted to the contruction sector and the public sector.

That's debatable I'd feel. I think the construction "boom" was a secondary effect of the initial rapid economic growth. I don't claim to be an expert in this field though. I'd say you'd agree that there is only a certain amount a Govt can control or manage despite their claims.

QuoteBlast05, Bev is not married, I assume its her partner you are on about TJG??

Yep, sorry, thats who i am on about.
resdubwhite, its a couple of million alright .... but 500K minimum would be claimed as salary over the next 5 years for starters, plus generous expenses plus bigger pension, presuming her partner bails her out.

Quote from: blast05 on May 28, 2007, 11:12:32 AM
As for "deliberate hedging on the cautious side"  .... it is this cautious approach that has brainwashed people into thinking that FF are doing a good job on the economy. When they announce yet another exchequer surplus its "oh look, we've done such a good job managing the economy that we've a pile of extra money left over and were going to giev it all back to you" and yet people buy it time after time.

I don't see what's so wrong with this. It's called revenue buoyancy in economist parlance and it's generally caused when more people are in employment than were anticipated when the budget was drawn up, thus reducing social welfare payouts and increasing tax revenue. How you expect a Minister for Finance to anticipate how many extra jobs are going to be created in the upcoming year is beyond me.

Greens for me. I shudder to think what Ireland's environmental record would be like if not for the EU.

maybe time to throw in a few more options - it'll be hard to see who other than JHR goes in with Bertie now - i don't think harney will stick with him, this is her chance to reinvent the pd's, i think she'll take it.  Whether Inda makes it in or not, i don't know, but bert ain't going to.

There ya go Bogball XV I put in the other option-took a while to type it out though!! It would be some grouping-not at all feasible I believe!

FF minority Govt if i were to pu money on it. Wouldn't suit either the PDs or Lab to go in with FF and don't think FF will ascede to Greens demands. Another election within 3 years.

Quote from: MacDanger on May 29, 2007, 02:28:21 AM
FF minority Govt if i were to pu money on it. Wouldn't suit either the PDs or Lab to go in with FF and don't think FF will ascede to Greens demands. Another election within 3 years.

Cheers belleaqua, look the new option is racing ahead too!!  I reckon there'll be another election by the end of the year, unless Enda's rainbow thingy gets up and running - that might keep solid for about 18 months.
Why do we want a stable govt anyway?  Would a big rainbow govt not be more representative - you know, a bit more democratic than one party govt?
Donagh, what way do you see the shinners voting in the taoiseach vote?  Or will they vote?  Maybe against Enda, but not for Bertie (if it is indeed Bertie going forward for FF).

Interesting Questions and Answers last night I thought. The question was put to the panel as to whether the new controversy will affect the formation of a new government, and the general consensus was 'No', although Joan Burton and Richard Bruton were both in the 'Doubtful, but let's see' camp.

Joan Burton said again that she expects Bertie to be Taoiseach. Richard Bruton kept trying to convince everybody, himself mostly I thought, that the numbers 'might' add up for the Alliance for Change, although to be honest Alliance is too weak a word for what he was proposing. Having said that. Richard Bruton, in my view, would be a better leader than Enda Kenny for Fine Gael. He seems to have a bit of charisma and craic about him as well as being an astute politician, and a good financial brain.

Felt sorry for Fiona O'Malley. Apart from Kevin Myers, she was the only non-TD on the panel, and it was reinforced every time she was mentioned from the first introductions : "Joan Burton TD Labour, Richard Bruton, TD Fine Gael, Brian Lenihan TD FF, Finian McGrath, TD Independent and Fiona O'Malley, eh, Representing PDs tonight." Ouch.

She seemed badly rattled as well, and you would feel sorry for them on a human level. It must be a very chastening experience to lose a seat. Much worse than failing to get elected at all I'd say.

I think my bet on Cowen for Taoiseach might be alive again, having seemed to die with Bertie's statement and election success. The cat that's scattering the pigeons now is yesterday's revelation that the bank records don't support Bertie's statements. It's hard to imagine how an explanation for that can be conjured up. Given that Bertie's not due to appear before the tribunal for weeks or months and that a government must be formed in the meantime, it's hard to see how any party leader can deal with him while this discrepancy is outstanding. 

Of course, it's hard to see Fianna Fáil dumping its most successful leader ever, straight after his record-breaking success, but if that's the price of power, they'd fillet him in a second.

It's also going to be fun to see where the tribunal will go today. Yesterday's accusations by Bertie's counsel effectively amount to the Taoiseach, representing the government that set up the tribunal, accusing that tribunal of bias against him as an individual being investigated by the same tribunal. If somebody wrote a play with a script like that it would be dismissed as too fanciful. What can the tribunal judges do now? Ask for a withdrawal of the accusations? Hold the counsel in contempt (not sure if that applies in a tribunal)? Or resign themselves, since the head of government has effectively expressed no confidence in them?

as you say hardy, it's not going to be possible for bert to come up with a real defence - he has now perjured himself to the tribunal too.  I really think when it becomes apparent what he has actually done, the other parties won't go near him - what they mostly said last night was, once it's been summarised in the newspapers tomorrow, we'll see if there's an impact then.
I think your Cowen bet could be a runner too, unfortunately, i do think bert will form a govt, but he won't last long.  Remember 2 weeks ago, he mentioned that he's dealing with the revenue re the loans etc, i really hope he hasn't told them any lies, that could be very serious and much as I don't like the man, i wouldn't particularly like to see him in the Joy, but Burke went for less.

Quoteit's hard to see how any party leader can deal with him while this discrepancy is outstanding

Do you not think they'll play the old "thats a matter for Fianna Fail" trick Hardy. You know what happens to principles when the prospect of power looms.

It will be interesting to see what Mahon says today alright. But yesterday was classic FF strategy in relation to any issues that come up in the tribunal. Smear the leaks and judges and deflect attention way from the facts. There could well turn out to be a perfectly natural explanation for the discrepancies in Berties own statements but no say I've done everything I've been asked to do by the tribunal and produce all the documentation I've been asked to and they are persecuting me by the leaks. Sounds very similar to what Lawlor was on about a few years ago.

Bertie will form the next government, and will last about 6 months. He will then hand over to Cowen, who will have 4 and a half years to convince the electorate that he can run the country. The fact that Cowen is the heir apparent will be a help to FF in forming the Gov, as he is a popular character.

Declan, AZ I don't think they'll get away with "this is a matter for FF" and go ahead negotiating government with Bertie when the media are jumping all over it and "stable government" is the catchphrase du jour. I think Bogball is right – FG are already issuing statements, Labour are waiting to consider what yesterday means when they read the papers(!) and even Finian McGrath was on this morning saying 5-year stability was everything to him and implying that an unresolved accusation hanging over Bertie was not conducive to going into government with him.

Maybe it's possible for Bertie's counsel to request the tribunal (if they're still talking to him!) in the national interest, to bring Bertie's cross-examination forward so that it can be dealt with before the Dáil is due to meet. Then all that's needed is for Bertie to come up with a story.

But Hardy, look at it like this.

51 Fine Gael plus 20 Labour plus 6 greens = 77. Add in the PDs and you are at 79. Now look at the independents. Michael Lowry would support that proposal, as would (probably) Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory. That's 82.

I cannot see Jackie Healy Rae or Beverly Flynn making Enda Taoiseach. Also it is a stretch for Mary Harney and Noel Grealish (gene Pool FFers in the PDS) going with Fine Gael, but anyway.

That means that Fine Gael, in my view, will have to make a deal with Sinn Fein to get power, and that the government would be
Fine Gael, Labour, the PDs, the Greens, Sinn Fein, Michael Lowry, Finian McGrath and Tony Gregory. I don't think that's workable.

On the other hand, Fianna Fail and the Greens is an immediate stable government, as is FF and Labour. Even Bertie's favoured option (publicly at least) of the PDs, with Healy-Rae, Flynn, McGrath and Gregory is a much more stable looking arrangement.

I can't see the appetite for another election, especially amongst the Greens or PDs or the Indos, who are nervous after the big squeeze, so I think they will deal, and FF will have to handle the situation very carefully as they transition to Cowen, assuming that is what happens.

Sorry AZ – I didn't make myself clear. What I meant was that I expect FF to form a government, but that I think it has now become more likely that it will be with Cowen as Taoiseach, because anyone sitting down to deal with FF may be forced, by media pressure and the fear of what will come out at the tribunal, to make that a condition.

Very possible. The bonfires will be burning around Clara for 6 months.

The Chairman of the Mahon Tribunal has said he categorically rejects claims that the inquiry is biased against the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern.
Judge Alan Mahon said Mr Ahern had been treated exactly the same as any other witness appearing before the tribunal.
He was replying to what he called 'unprecedented' criticism yesterday by the Taoiseach's laywer, Conor Maguire SC, who said the tribunal risked interfering with the democratic process by circulating evidence prior to the election.
Judge Mahon said the tribunal was required to send out evidence before a module starts and it is sent on the condition of confidentiality.
He said the tribunal had investigated the leaks and brought legal proceedings against The Irish Times.
Meanwhile, opposition politicians have been commenting on the possible impact of the proceedings on the formation of a new government.
Joan Burton of the Labour Party said it was too early to say if the issue would have a bearing, but the Deputy Leader of Fine Gael, Richard Bruton, said there did seem to be clear problems with the Taoiseach's account of his dealings.Fine Gael's Fergus O'Dowd said the opening statement at yesterday's sitting of the Mahon Tribunal raises 'serious issues for parties or individuals considering supporting a Fianna Fáil-led government'.

However, the Minister of State, Brian Lenihan, said it was his understanding that counsel for the tribunal accepted that the matters could be explained.Mr Lenihan said he did not believe that the proceedings would have any impact on the formation of a government.The tribunal's inquiries into Mr Ahern's finances re-started yesterday after being suspended for the duration of the General Election campaign.The statement by Mr Ahern's legal team followed evidence from tribunal lawyers who say they have found discrepancies in Mr Ahern's explanation for bank lodgements in the 1990s.

 This election has thrown up quite a few dilemmas.

1. The electorate has sent a clear message that it doesn't want the PD's in government. It's elected candidates received 4950 & 2735 first preferences. That does not represent a mandate.

2. With the exception of Lowry and Gregory we have have hotch potch of independent TDs who just scraped in and will not want another election in the short term. Which ever way they vote they will want it to last.

3. While Healy-Rae and Flynn are considered FF gene-pool the former nearly brough down the 1997 government over one of his many rows with O'Donohue over taking credit for developments in Kerry. ( That this could happen shows that some of our politicians are really the dregs of the earth ). Flynn on the other hand has her own problems and may not want to be the one who prevents her own constituency getting a Taoiseach as it could hurt her next time.

4. Of the larger parties I'd say FF wouldn't fancy going back to the electorate while FG would be only too delighted to go again.

Bearing in mind the above I suspect we will have a minority FF government but I'm not that sure it will last long. The only chance of stability is to replace Bertie quickly. Cowan is eing calimed by some here as a superhero among politicians. It was easy for him to sit as a sniper during the last month, sitting in the hot seat would be a different matter altogether. I'm not sure his abrasive style would endear himself to the public.

I'll go for another election within 18 months.  

QuoteI'm not sure his abrasive style would endear himself to the public.

Agreed Muppet. That's the one area I think Cowen would need to change. His public demeanour is way too abrasive for people to warm to him, despite what he may be like in private.

I do not think he is a superman politcian, but I think he is astute, direct and as honest as politicians go (which is probably not very by any other standards :D)

I hope there is not another election soon, but I agree it could happen. I'm just hoping that FF can make something stick with the Greens or else the PDs and the Indos.

QuoteFlynn on the other hand has her own problems and may not want to be the one who prevents her own constituency getting a Taoiseach as it could hurt her next time

Seriously Muppet, do you think she (or more importantly the people who voted for her) would be one bit worried that?

i agree with Declan.

The PD's (bless them) have been given a clear message. Your Ultra right wing politics are not welcome in this country.  Bertie should look elsewhere.

Quote from: AZOffaly on May 29, 2007, 10:33:15 AM

On the other hand, Fianna Fail and the Greens is an immediate stable government, as is FF and Labour. Even Bertie's favoured option (publicly at least) of the PDs, with Healy-Rae, Flynn, McGrath and Gregory is a much more stable looking arrangement.

If it comes down to one vote Bev better think long and hard before voting against Enda, I can tell you she might as well run in another part of the country next time around, because she will lose Castlebar voters almost entirely, by the way without Castlebar Bev wouldn't have a hope in hell of re-election.

Sure by that logic she should join Fine Gael altogether to have a chance of being elected on the coat tails of the mighty Enda. I am aware that she would have gotten transfers from Castlebar, but surely people who voted for her will understand exactly who she is and how aligned politically and idealogically she is to Fianna Fail.

I think the voters of Mayo would have enough gumption to know she is more likely to vote with Fianna Fail than Fine Gael, and given that, you can hardly blame her for following her own principles.

If you buy a Dog, you have to expect it to sh*t in the garden.

The election results clearly demonstrate the electorate have decided they do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.  His current posturing goes against what the people have decided and show him up as what he is - greedy and arrogant.  Imo, if he had any character he would accept defeat with grace and honour.

Quote from: AZOffaly on May 29, 2007, 12:50:30 PM
Sure by that logic she should join Fine Gael altogether to have a chance of being elected on the coat tails of the mighty Enda. I am aware that she would have gotten transfers from Castlebar, but surely people who voted for her will understand exactly who she is and how aligned politically and idealogically she is to Fianna Fail.

I think the voters of Mayo would have enough gumption to know she is more likely to vote with Fianna Fail than Fine Gael, and given that, you can hardly blame her for following her own principles.

If you buy a Dog, you have to expect it to sh*t in the garden.

You really don't get the desire for Enda to become Taoiseach in the town and County, on Market Square in Castlebar a fortnight ago thousands turned up to cheer on Enda & his team, I saw many hardcore Fianna Failers from Castlebar on the square cheering on Enda.

After the count I went to a late bar the other side of town, I was talking to several lads I went to secondary school with and I know for a fact they where clearly Not Fine Gaelers and they had all voted Enda first, many where very vocal that Bev should vote for Enda if it came to it.

Bev will experience a backlash in Mayo if she chooses herself over the Constituency

Quote from: Star Spangler on May 29, 2007, 12:54:10 PM
The election results clearly demonstrate the electorate have decided they do not want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.  His current posturing goes against what the people have decided and show him up as what he is - greedy and arrogant.  Imo, if he had any character he would accept defeat with grace and honour.

This is Fianna Fail propeganda.

The people 60% voted against Fianna Fail, the reason the PDs where voted against was because their support rejected their government with Fianna Fail.

QuoteYou really don't get the desire for Enda to become Taoiseach in the town and County, on Market Square in Castlebar

It's not f**king Eurostar!  ::)

QuoteThe people 60% voted against Fianna Fail

And how many voted against Fine Gael so?

Quote from: Star Spangler on May 29, 2007, 12:57:58 PM

QuoteYou really don't get the desire for Enda to become Taoiseach in the town and County, on Market Square in Castlebar

It's not f**king Eurostar!  ::)

QuoteThe people 60% voted against Fianna Fail

And how many voted against Fine Gael so?

Its not the Sopranos  8) either but thats how Fianna Fail like to model themselves (GANGSTERS)

QuoteThe PD's (bless them) have been given a clear message. Your Ultra right wing politics are not welcome in this country.  Bertie should look elsewhere.

Yes, but who in FF will want to 'mind' Angola? And will Bertie (or Cowan, or anyone in FF) want to bear the electoral responsibility (apart from the 'collective' cabinet responsibility, which is easily brushed off) for Angola?

QuoteHis current posturing goes against what the people have decided and show him up as what he is - greedy and arrogant.

Would you go way out of that .... even a press secretary for FF wouldn't come out with a comment of that extreme

This line that 60% of people voted against Fianna Fail is being spouted here fairly regularly as if it were a bad thing, and Richard Bruton mentioned it last night as well. But in a field of say of 6 established parties, numerous independents and various smaller parties, 4 out of 10 people voted FF. That's a very big vote.

How many voted 'against' Fine Gael and Labour?

I think there is no doubt at all that Fianna Fail are by far and away the most popular political party in this Country.

QuoteI think there is no doubt at all that Fianna Fail are by far and away the most popular political party in this Country

You're quite right in that AZ. 41% share of the vote proves that. However the people haven't felt that its a good idea to let them govern alone now in 20 odd years so it's a matter of who will go in with them now. If Bertie says his favoured option is the PDs and the independents do people believe him??? 

Quote from: AZOffaly on May 29, 2007, 01:42:02 PM
This line that 60% of people voted against Fianna Fail is being spouted here fairly regularly as if it were a bad thing, and Richard Bruton mentioned it last night as well. But in a field of say of 6 established parties, numerous independents and various smaller parties, 4 out of 10 people voted FF. That's a very big vote.

How many voted 'against' Fine Gael and Labour?

I think there is no doubt at all that Fianna Fail are by far and away the most popular political party in this Country.

Fianna Failers vote FF no matter what happens, if FF where to deport the whole of Offaly to Siberia FF's would still vote for them. Ethics & Conscience don't appear to be compatiable characteristics, remember when Des O'Malley was kicked out of FF because he had conviction not to vote against the right for non-married people to buy condoms, the rest of the FF sheep vote the party line to restrict condoms availability. Des O'Malley was kicked out for having his own mind and he knew what the right thing to do.

At this point I would have trouble believing Bertie's radio :D

Ah no, I think he'd like the PDs to have won a few more seats for a bit of more of the same. I think he would like Mata Harney to have the Health Portfolio for a bit longer.

I am inclined to believe that is his favourite option alright. If the Fianna Fail party was able to work with 8 PDs, they will surely be able to manage 2 PDs and a couple of Fianna Fail wannabes.

Quoteif FF where to deport the whole of Offaly to Siberia FF's would still vote for them.

Siberia is nice in the Summer :D

Ah no seriously, your point about Fianna Fail always towing the party line is a good one, however a lot of people see that as positive. i.e. they know what the Party Line is and they know they will stick to it, right or wrong. they have been wrong before, and will be wrong again, and the PD thing was obviously a wrong stance to take. Incidentaly Brian Lenihan made that point last night as well, and I took that to be a clear wooing signal to the FFers who are currently in the PDs, such as Fiona O'Malley, Mary Harney, Noel Grealish etc etc to come back like prodigal sons and daughters.

But right or wrong, the thing they believe in is that the Party line should be followed, or else the next step is in-fighting, division,  splits and mixed messages to the electorate. I realise I am coming across here as a die hard FF supporter, when in reality my vote was one that Enda was targetting, i.e. those who vote FF, but do so after making a decision rather than simply putting a '1' beside the FF candidate regardless.

For the record, I voted FF 1 & 2 in North Tipp, and Labour #3, Greens #4 because I would have liked to see a FF & Labour coalition.

QuoteFianna Failers vote FF no matter what happens, if FF where to deport the whole of Offaly to Siberia FF's would still vote for them. Ethics & Conscience don't appear to be compatiable characteristics

That's a terribly condescending view. It's like the attitude of unionists toward SF voters in the north. Regardless of anything you have to respect a party getting a mandate. FF got over 50% more first preferences than the party lead by the man who thinks he won the election. In fairness, you couldn't make it up.

Quote from: AZOffaly on May 29, 2007, 02:03:20 PM
For the record, I voted FF 1 & 2 in North Tipp, and Labour #3, Greens #4 because I would have liked to see a FF & Labour coalition.

How did you vote in Offaly?

Quote from: deiseach on May 28, 2007, 05:37:11 PM

Quote from: blast05 on May 28, 2007, 11:12:32 AM
As for "deliberate hedging on the cautious side"  .... it is this cautious approach that has brainwashed people into thinking that FF are doing a good job on the economy. When they announce yet another exchequer surplus its "oh look, we've done such a good job managing the economy that we've a pile of extra money left over and were going to giev it all back to you" and yet people buy it time after time.

I don't see what's so wrong with this. It's called revenue buoyancy in economist parlance and it's generally caused when more people are in employment than were anticipated when the budget was drawn up, thus reducing social welfare payouts and increasing tax revenue. How you expect a Minister for Finance to anticipate how many extra jobs are going to be created in the upcoming year is beyond me.

So your saying that in any other area of business it would be acceptable to have such inaccurate forecasts and not be able to update them??? For example its always such a rush of money in teh last 3/4 weeks of the year that he has no idea is appearing???....When you say you create 60k jobs a year you budget for that...

This rubbish about 60% of people voting against Fianna Fail as justicication for forming an alternative government is amazing. In what other multi-party parliamentary democracy would you see such a party after 10 years in government and the media hostility against it get such a mandate. If thats the case 73% voted against Fine Gael.

I stated here two weeks ago that I was voting for my local Fianna Fail candidate here who is my neighbour not along party lines. I have never been politically aligned as my house had the old civil war party split, father-fianna fail, mother fine gael. Since this campaign went on I have been drawn towards Fianna Fail.

The performance of Bertie Ahern in the debate impressed me and the subsequent media claims that it was a draw disgusted me. It didnt do Enda Kenny any service either. I think he should accept that the mandate there is for Fianna Fail to form a government.

The Alliance for Change is 7 seats short of Fianna Fail and if you want to throw in the Greens them 3 parties are one seat short of 1 party!

QuoteHow did you vote in Offaly?

I binned my Laois Offaly polling card :D If I had been up there I'd have voted Biffo as #1, and probably FF #2 & 3 as well. I might have given Olwyn Enright a #4 on purely aesthetic grounds :D

QuoteFF got over 50% more first preferences than the party lead by the man who thinks he won the election. In fairness, you couldn't make it up.

In fairness i think your second sentence ties in fairly closely with the 2nd part of your fist sentence !!
Where has Kenny claimed to have actually won the election ?

I ca'nt understand how a true blue Fine Gaeler like Fishead Sam has a photo of a deceased Fianna Fail TD and Government Minister on all his posts.   Does he not know who Sean Flanagan was?.

Its very simple...

Neither FF/PD's or FG/Labour won enough seats to form a govt.....therefore they are both entitled to talk to the other parties to get them to vote for them...

The Greens have said they would prefer FF out...so they are up for attracting..

Between teh further revelations of the inaccuracies in Berties statements becoming more obvious it pushes the PD's into a corner over whether they have a purpose if they support him...and the same with teh independents...

It also increases the likelihood that FF might have to rely on SF to get into Govt which won't be good politically either...

Quote from: Onlooker on May 29, 2007, 04:06:33 PM
I ca'nt understand how a true blue Fine Gaeler like Fishead Sam has a photo of a deceased Fianna Fail TD and Government Minister on all his posts.   Does he not know who Sean Flanagan was?.

Ya I do but he still a Legend, thats an Iconic picture in Mayo, I'm just waiting for September and I can have JO'M holding Sam.

Why is FF/GP or FF/PD/IND more palatable to people than FG/LAB/IND/PD?
Why do people think one option is necessarily more stable than the other, and why do people care about stability?  Is it another red herring thrown out there by Bert, like the "we've got experience in govt. so ye better vote for us" myth?
In many ways it would be much better if FF were to form part of the next govt, simply because they deserve to have to deal with the mess they've left us in, in fact it would be cruel on the rainbow if they got the blame.  However, financially it would be better for me personally if FG were in power, so in keeping with everyone else, i am being selfish when I say that I want the next govt to be FG led, or at worst biffo led.

For a start bogball.

Labour and the pd's in the same bed.

Not a f**king chance. And even if Pat was locked and ended in bed with Mary he'd surely bolt first thing next morning.
fg/lab/pd/ind is not in anyway an option.

Quote from: Bogball XV on May 29, 2007, 04:37:48 PM
Why is FF/GP or FF/PD/IND more palatable to people than FG/LAB/IND/PD?
Why do people think one option is necessarily more stable than the other, and why do people care about stability? 

You left out the Greens in that Rainbow combo and its not possible without them. How can you have Labour/Green/PD in same government. its a total clash of ideology and interest-not feasible. Put in unstable Independents, how could that possibly survive more than 6 months??

And IMO the effect of such a combination would lead to a stronger resurgent Fianna Fail. There is no doubt in my mind that previous collection would collapse, Fianna Fail would gain the high moral ground and the support of the people. I hear OVERALL MAJORITY. The best interests of this country would be served by a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition however likely or unlikely that may be.

If Bertie wants FF and Labour to coalesce, the only magic words he has to utter are "Sinn Féin" (as being even a remote possibility for a partner to secure a Dáil majority), whereupon all bets are immediately off!  ;)

Fishead, You have some nerve to say that FF people will only vote FF, from reading your posts over the last few weeks I'm convinced that if a little pig walked down main street castlebar wearing a FG badge that not only would you vote for it you would be out canvasassing for it too.

Getting back to you point about Bev daring to vote against Kenny.I  dont think Bev will be to bothered about the castlebar electorate at the minute, they didn't exactly vote in numbers for her, if anything they let her down and let her family down. It was people in other parts of the county who elected her, and I as one would hope she would vote against Enda and his contract (as that was my reason for voting for her). Kenny and FG done their best to oust her.

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

my mistake re the greens.
But why do you all think that supposedly diametrically opposed parties cannot work together?  I don't think any of them are that far apart really, plus I think it's not a bad idea to have divergent opinions in govt, as I say, is that not what democracy is supposed to be about?  Would that not be more democratic than if we were presented with a minority FF govt, representing 41% of the people but railroading legislation through the dail with the support of a rag bag group of independents who are concerned with a few issues local to them?
You may be correct about the ff majority being a possibility if this ragtag bunch failed, and fail they would, but I think they'd have a better shot at managing the economy during the difficult times ahead than FF, who manifestly failed to manage it properly during the good times.
For me a cabinet with:
Biffo, B Lenihan, D Ahern, Hanafin, R Bruton, Rabitte, Howlin, Quinn, Kenny (possibly as taoiseach, as I wouldn't want him having a portfolio), Sargent, Eamon Ryan, Enright (I'm struggling to find blueshirts), McManus, O'Dowd, Noonan might get us through what's coming with minimal damage.

Bogball are you looking for a Grand Coalition with everyone except Sinn Fein & Bertie, I could go for that.

In all seriousness, a Coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would probably be the one with the best quality people. It'll never happen of course, but you could get a good cabinet.

I personally would like to see the likes of Richard Bruton and Enda Kenny as ministers in a government.

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM
Fishead, You have some nerve to say that FF people will only vote FF, from reading your posts over the last few weeks I'm convinced that if a little pig walked down main street castlebar wearing a FG badge that not only would you vote for it you would be out canvasassing for it too.

Getting back to you point about Bev daring to vote against Kenny.I  dont think Bev will be to bothered about the castlebar electorate at the minute, they didn't exactly vote in numbers for her, if anything they let her down and let her family down. It was people in other parts of the county who elected her, and I as one would hope she would vote against Enda and his contract (as that was my reason for voting for her). Kenny and FG done their best to oust her.

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

I have voted FG, Labour, Greens & Independent over the years, in local elections I have at times voted Labour or Independent number 1.

I am not as died in the wool Blueshirt as you may think, I have you could say been evangelicalised by Kennys leadership of Fine Gael.

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM
Fishead, You have some nerve to say that FF people will only vote FF, from reading your posts over the last few weeks I'm convinced that if a little pig walked down main street castlebar wearing a FG badge that not only would you vote for it you would be out canvasassing for it too.

Ha ha ha, you obviously from out the Country, not many pigs running around the streets of Castlebar. Dogs perhaps, but not many pigs  ;)

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM
Getting back to you point about Bev daring to vote against Kenny.I  dont think Bev will be to bothered about the castlebar electorate at the minute, they didn't exactly vote in numbers for her, if anything they let her down and let her family down. It was people in other parts of the county who elected her, and I as one would hope she would vote against Enda and his contract (as that was my reason for voting for her). Kenny and FG done their best to oust her.

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

The Pee Flynn was always a self promoter, bringing him up hardly endears me to voting for his daughter. I don't think Castlebar can be blamed for not voting for Bev if she BETRAYS us.  >:(

Quote from: Bogball XV on May 29, 2007, 05:05:08 PM
But why do you all think that supposedly diametrically opposed parties cannot work together?  I don't think any of them are that far apart really, plus I think it's not a bad idea to have divergent opinions in govt, as I say, is that not what democracy is supposed to be about?  Would that not be more democratic than if we were presented with a minority FF govt, representing 41% of the people but railroading legislation through the dail with the support of a rag bag group of independents who are concerned with a few issues local to them?

Theoretically thats true but democracy has to tempered by feasibility and stability. We wont achieve utopia but we must strive for what is practical and workable. PR is the most representative system we can possibly have. Any other system would hugely favour Fianna Fail a la DeValera trying to change to the first past the post system

Quote from: Bogball XV on May 29, 2007, 05:05:08 PM
You may be correct about the ff majority being a possibility if this ragtag bunch failed, and fail they would, but I think they'd have a better shot at managing the economy during the difficult times ahead than FF, who manifestly failed to manage it properly during the good times.

Bogball I respect alot of your postings but it is shadowed by complete bias at times, I think the above statement is unfounded as are your opinions regard Bertie. Remember his political past he is proven and has all the credentials. The people have spoken and he is eminently popular and its insulting to an educated nation to say he is fooling the people with his sob stories etc

As regards the economy will someone please explain to me if this was so why did Fine Gael and Labour not attack them on it? Why did Enda Kenny acknowledge a good job?

Quote from: Bogball XV on May 29, 2007, 05:05:08 PM
For me a cabinet with:
Biffo, B Lenihan, D Ahern, Hanafin, R Bruton, Rabitte, Howlin, Quinn, Kenny (possibly as taoiseach, as I wouldn't want him having a portfolio), Sargent, Eamon Ryan, Enright (I'm struggling to find blueshirts), McManus, O'Dowd, Noonan might get us through what's coming with minimal damage.

I have to agree, Labour have some very able people but I struggle to see the same levels of ability on the Fine Gael side. The talent Fianna Fail have is not near matched. I was disappointed by some of Simon Coveneys performances this election, John Deasy has potential, bit of a maverick methinks and an enemy of Kenny. You left out Brian Hayes and Eamon Gilmore as possible candidates

Also, although he had a difficult time in Health M Martin is a very able and capable minister and IMO resonsible for the single greatest piece of legislation brought in here despite great opposition. Other FF people who may not be frontline big names include Seamus Brennan, Mary Coughlan and Tom Kitt have all behaved well without setting the world alight.

The likes of Billy Kelleher and even Mary O'Rourke could be in line as will Martin Mansergh to replace the likes of Roche and Cullen who really represented everything wrong with the last government.

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

Here here.

Quote from: resdubwhite on May 30, 2007, 11:32:37 AM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

Here here.

The reason they voted for Kenny was not for Preferential treatment, but they like many people along the Atlantic Coast recognised a Dublin Taoiseach ignores us entirely, while a man from the West would still deliver for Dublin but would think of Connacht, Leinster & Munster before drafting plans, he would not presume Dublin first the rest as an afterthought as 10 years and the most of the last 25 years for Fianna Fail Government. I would hope we would not get treated any better, and knowing Enda to be the type of man he is, Dublin of course would still be the main act in the show, but other shows would get shown to the Audience too(Infrastructure, clean water, foreign investment).

Please dont use the word corruption when you talk of Kenny coz that is rich with the Government we had in the last 10 years & Haughey before that. I don't hear you complaining about the 14,000+ seats Drumcondra gave Bertie Ahern. I think its a case of Pot-Kettle-Black.

You also contradicted yourself, as Enda showed no preferential treatment last time how can you then claim he would be corrupt?????????

I do really believe that Enda would be a Taoiseach for All-Ireland while Bertie is a Taoiseach for Dublin & the Commuter Belt. If you look at the breakdown in the Independent 2 or 3 days ago of the way people voted, Leinster voted for the Status Quo in general & in general Connacht, Munster & Ulster voted for change.

Quote from: Bogball XV on May 29, 2007, 04:37:48 PMHowever, financially it would be better for me personally if FG were in power, so in keeping with everyone else, i am being selfish when I say that I want the next govt to be FG led, or at worst biffo led.

You got a few yo-yos on the outcome?

Quote from: Fishead_Sam on May 30, 2007, 06:59:10 PM

Quote from: resdubwhite on May 30, 2007, 11:32:37 AM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM

Quote from: intoDwest on May 29, 2007, 04:55:14 PM

I'm still at a loss why the people of Mayo voted for Kenny like they did, the last time he was in Government he was the minister for Tourism and Trade and delivered f**k all for the county......The last time a Flynn was in a minister position he delivered for the people of mayo and for castlebar in particular.

Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

Here here.

The reason they voted for Kenny was not for Preferential treatment, but they like many people along the Atlantic Coast recognised a Dublin Taoiseach ignores us entirely, while a man from the West would still deliver for Dublin but would think of Connacht, Leinster & Munster before drafting plans, he would not presume Dublin first the rest as an afterthought as 10 years and the most of the last 25 years for Fianna Fail Government. I would hope we would not get treated any better, and knowing Enda to be the type of man he is, Dublin of course would still be the main act in the show, but other shows would get shown to the Audience too(Infrastructure, clean water, foreign investment).

Please dont use the word corruption when you talk of Kenny coz that is rich with the Government we had in the last 10 years & Haughey before that. I don't hear you complaining about the 14,000+ seats Drumcondra gave Bertie Ahern. I think its a case of Pot-Kettle-Black.

You also contradicted yourself, as Enda showed no preferential treatment last time how can you then claim he would be corrupt?????????

I do really believe that Enda would be a Taoiseach for All-Ireland while Bertie is a Taoiseach for Dublin & the Commuter Belt. If you look at the breakdown in the Independent 2 or 3 days ago of the way people voted, Leinster voted for the Status Quo in general & in general Connacht, Munster & Ulster voted for change.

I didn't make any statement about Kenny at all. I was referring to IntoDwest's method of evaluating a minister in terms of what they delivered for the county and the town, as opposed to their actual  responsibilities to the Irish people as a whole.

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM
Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

It has always been a minister's job to deliver for the county / town.

Which is why corruption is met with such a yawn.

But I imagine your musings on the subject were strictly rhetorical.

When does the Government have to be announced/decided?

Quote from: deiseach on May 30, 2007, 10:26:56 PM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM
Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

It has always been a minister's job to deliver for the county / town.

Which is why corruption is met with such a yawn.

But I imagine your musings on the subject were strictly rhetorical.

I'm not exactly clear on your tone here. Do you think its a good thing that a minister should be evaluated by many of his constituents on the basis of the bacon he's brought home as opposed to his performance in leading his department?

Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on May 30, 2007, 10:36:53 PM
When does the Government have to be announced/decided?

14th of June GDA. Personally, I think (and hope) it will bee FF/PD/Ind in government.

Quote from: deiseach on May 30, 2007, 10:26:56 PM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM
Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

It has always been a minister's job to deliver for the county / town.

Which is why corruption is met with such a yawn.

But I imagine your musings on the subject were strictly rhetorical.

No.

its a ministers job to deliver for the country. And I'll add to that also a TD (someone tell JHR)
Its a councillors job to deliver for the county/town.

Independents are slightly different in fairness. Independents would never get elected if they didn't promise to deliver on local issues. And they would never get re-elected unless they did a bit of that.

All politics in Ireland still contains an element of looking after your constituents. What some fail to realise is that you can look after your constituents without sacrificing the greater good. A rising tide lifts all boats.

There will always be a place for specific local issues though. If, as an example, Dell were to pull out of Limerick, and Willie O'Dea wasn't seen to be lobbying like the bejaysus for some sort of replacement, he wouldn't be doubliing the quota next time out, and that's for sure.

Quote from: resdubwhite on May 31, 2007, 10:26:41 AM

Quote from: deiseach on May 30, 2007, 10:26:56 PM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM
Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

It has always been a minister's job to deliver for the county / town.

Which is why corruption is met with such a yawn.

But I imagine your musings on the subject were strictly rhetorical.

No.

its a ministers job to deliver for the country. And I'll add to that also a TD (someone tell JHR)
Its a councillors job to deliver for the county/town.

I agree but whoever forms the next Government let them remember that there is 4 Provences in this Country not one.  >:(

Quote from: Fishead_Sam on May 31, 2007, 10:45:32 AM

Quote from: resdubwhite on May 31, 2007, 10:26:41 AM

Quote from: deiseach on May 30, 2007, 10:26:56 PM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM
Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

It has always been a minister's job to deliver for the county / town.

Which is why corruption is met with such a yawn.

But I imagine your musings on the subject were strictly rhetorical.

No.

its a ministers job to deliver for the country. And I'll add to that also a TD (someone tell JHR)
Its a councillors job to deliver for the county/town.

I agree but whoever forms the next Government let them remember that there is 4 Provences in this Country not one.  >:(

So when have FG ever bucked this trend? Surely decentralisation and the spatial strategy brought in by FF in the last twn years were the first proper attempts at actively seeking to centres outside dublin.

Quote from: resdubwhite on May 31, 2007, 11:37:56 AM

Quote from: Fishead_Sam on May 31, 2007, 10:45:32 AM

Quote from: resdubwhite on May 31, 2007, 10:26:41 AM

Quote from: deiseach on May 30, 2007, 10:26:56 PM

Quote from: J70 on May 30, 2007, 12:13:38 AM
Since when is it a minister's job to "deliver for the county" or their local town?

And people wonder why corruption is met with such a yawn in Irish life!

It has always been a minister's job to deliver for the county / town.

Which is why corruption is met with such a yawn.

But I imagine your musings on the subject were strictly rhetorical.

No.

its a ministers job to deliver for the country. And I'll add to that also a TD (someone tell JHR)
Its a councillors job to deliver for the county/town.

I agree but whoever forms the next Government let them remember that there is 4 Provences in this Country not one.  >:(

So when have FG ever bucked this trend? Surely decentralisation and the spatial strategy brought in by FF in the last twn years were the first proper attempts at actively seeking to centres outside dublin.

The spacial stratefy is something we hear every FF election but it is never delivered, the strategy the experts put forward was for  building up towns such as Galway, Limerick, Cork, Athlone, Portlaoise, Kilkenny, Castlebar, Sligo, Letterkenny, Tralee, Waterford, Dundalk, Wexford, but decetralisation by putting things into tiny villages & towns does not build up the capicity to attract buisness & industry. FF choose votes over building up the towns and cities that could generate the population requirements to boost industry, development & industry in their greater regions.

FF gave us vote grabbers not a strategy.

Fishead.

Infrastructure cannot be built overnight. Sure isn't the national development plan rebuilding the western rail corridor.

Again I ask you? What have FG offered thats so different. And don't tell me about contracts or lighthouses.

Thats just waffle.

Resdubswhite

Well FG supported the Spatial Strategy and not the fiasco that was decentralisation which went against the Spatial Strategy...
They have also campaigned for the Western Railway as well as further investment into public transport and Dublin Bus/Iarnrod Eireann etc...

At least they won't budget 4bn for a road plan and spend 14bn or spend extra hundreds of millions on the Luas or spend years on the M3 through Tara when most people with a brain knew that it would be problematical......and if they do at least the Minister will have to answer for it unlike in FF....

Quote from: DUBSFORSAM1 on May 31, 2007, 12:30:07 PM
Resdubswhite

Well FG supported the Spatial Strategy and not the fiasco that was decentralisation which went against the Spatial Strategy...
They have also campaigned for the Western Railway as well as further investment into public transport and Dublin Bus/Iarnrod Eireann etc...

At least they won't budget 4bn for a road plan and spend 14bn or spend extra hundreds of millions on the Luas or spend years on the M3 through Tara when most people with a brain knew that it would be problematical......and if they do at least the Minister will have to answer for it unlike in FF....