Sad to see journalists linking playing success with the number of possessions. True enough, Ciaran Kilkenny, with his 50+, merited MOTM, but some hacks are using it as a principal measure of success. How do we measure the contribution of the corner back who simply ensures his opponent is rarely an option for a pass or the forward who continually creates space for the man 'in possession'?
Possession is deceptive as an end in itself. Ask anyone in Tyrone.
The old fashioned analysis based on what you score has a lot going for it.
I suppose it can be seen as another performance indicator for certain players on the field. The same can be said for total distance run, not an indicator of how well a corner back plays whose game would be limited to containing a forward, but equally important to know how hard a half forward/back may be working.
Given the state of the game at present I would imagine it wouldn't be too hard to rack up high possessions all the same!
Teams like Donegal give you the ball in the half back line and encourage you to keep it so that they can set their defensive structure up. Keeping the ball in that area is actually a hindrance to performance.
It's widely used in other sports, especially AFL. While a high possession count doesn't necessarily mean someone is having a good game, more often than not the Man of the Match goes to the player from the winning team with the most possessions, so there is definitely a correlation. eg Kilkenny motm, McHugh was Donegal's best player at the weekend, Dillon in first half for Mayo was excellent and had the most possessions.
I suppose a corner back or corner forward can have a good game without being near the top of the possessions list, but for the middle 8 (or these days middle 11 players) it's a good barometer of how someone is playing.
I mentioned it on the other thread, but possession stats as an indicator of how 'good' someone was has to take into account the style of game. When you play Donegal, if your role is to be the link man, you will receive the ball unchallenged a huge amount of times.
I would prefer to analyse what the person with those possessions did with the ball. That, to me, would be a more accurate indicator of effectiveness in that sort of game/position.
In a normal 15 on 15 type game, or even the more usual 1 man sweeper role, possessions are slightly more relevant because they do speak to how often you worked to get on the ball, beat your man to the ball, showed for the pass etc. 18 possessions for a corner forward who is being man marked is far more impressive than 60 possessions for a lad who is essentially the conduit through which all a teams possessions go, in an uncontested role in his own half back line.
I'm going to look back on Kilkenny and count
a) How many possessions gained uncontested versus contested.
b) How many successful passes versus unsuccessful.
c) How many successful passes forwards versus lateral or backwards.
d) How many unsuccessful passes forwards versus backwards.
e) How many scoring chances came with a Kilkenny pass initiating or contributing to the move.
I suspect the answers will be a lot more uncontested; a huge amount successful; a lot more lateral or backwards; very few unsuccessful, but if any, forwards; and the last one I'm genuinely not sure of. He linked up a huge amount, so he's probably involved in a large amount of the scores, but if you see how many passes were between him and the actual chance, it might be a lot, so how important was his pass in the overall move?
I don't like the lazy 'he got on the ball 50 times so he had a stormer' commentary. How easy was it to get on the ball, and what did he do with it. That, to me, says how well he played.
PS, none of this is meant to disparage Kilkenny, he was obviously sent out to be the link man, and that conduit, so Gavin thinks highly of his ability to set the tempo and retain possession and be patient. That in itself may be worthy of MOTM.
AZOffaly, i agree if you do further analysis on the stats you will come to more accurate conclusions. But if Kilkenny is playing in the same position as Small or Flynn and gets 20 more possessions than them, you can bet he will probably be having a better game. It shows confidence to get on the ball and confidence of your team mates to give you the ball and these things come when you are playing well.
Given the vast majority of players on a pitch these days play similar roles i think it is a good stat to look at.
Quote from: Mario on August 10, 2016, 09:37:26 AM
AZOffaly, i agree if you do further analysis on the stats you will come to more accurate conclusions. But if Kilkenny is playing in the same position as Small or Flynn and gets 20 more possessions than them, you can bet he will probably be having a better game. It shows confidence to get on the ball and confidence of your team mates to give you the ball and these things come when you are playing well.
Given the vast majority of players on a pitch these days play similar roles i think it is a good stat to look at.
Same position Mario, nominally, but not the same role. It's obvious he was the designated link man. Flynn and Small are in that sort of area, but they are not the conduit. So as I said, the very fact that he is the conduit speaks to how highly Gavin rates him, and trusts him on the ball, but it doesn't mean he worked any harder than the other lads, or did anything more spectacular in getting on the ball.
Also, you have to bear in mind the opposition set up. They were letting Dublin have free rein across their own 45/midfield, only engaging after that. A lot of other players in that ''role" against other teams wouldn't have that freedom. In essence that very role, the orchestrater, doesn't even apply against a lot of teams. Kilkenny was not a 'sweeper', he was more like a point guard in basketball.
Kilkenny was very poor for the first 20 minutes on Saturday
he was dispossessed at least 3 times
One other thing, stats, even if I do my breakdown of his possessions, do not give the full picture. They just point towards trends. Stats normally don't give context about time in game, 'influence' etc. Kilkenny was a huge influence in how the game flowed on Saturday, and as I said may well have been worthy of man of the match. Just not solely on the basis of his possession count is what I',m saying.
Don't like that stat. I've seen too many lads while I'm standing about 50/60 yards out come running towards me shouting for a pass only for them to be staring at the same picture I had. . . Plus there's too much shovelling the ball off to the guy beside you I think there needs to be a stat about a meaningful possession and have that measured in some way.
So, I just watched the first half back there. As suspected a lot of his possessions were uncontested and involved lateral passes, however, the stats actually highlight his significance in terms of his influence, and this is more relevant than he 'had 52 possessions'.
By my count Kilkenny had 22 possessions in the first half. Of those 22 possessions, 20 were uncontested. 1 was a pass where he was pressured straight away. 1 was a brave win of a breaking ball.
Of the 22 possessions, he ensured Dublin retained possession 19 times. Of the 3 that did not involve retention of possession, he lost the ball once in the tackle inside the Donegal 45, near the sideline. He gave a bad pass towards Paul Flynn in the attacking third, and finally he had a shot which he scored.
Of the 22 possessions he attempted 20 passes. 19 of them were successful, and as mentioned, 1 was unsuccessful.
Of his 19 successful passes, 5 were forward, and 14 were sideways or backwards.
In terms of his influence on scoring chances, he was involved in 8 moves which led to scoring chances.
He had direct assists for Philly McMahon's point, and Diarmuid Connolly's second point. He also scored a point himself. He was also involved in 4 other moves which led to shots, 2 wides, and 2 scores. His involvement was 4,3,1 and 6 passes removed from the shot. He was also involved in the move which led to his own score.
Quote from: AZOffaly on August 10, 2016, 11:51:31 AM
So, I just watched the first half back there. As suspected a lot of his possessions were uncontested and involved lateral passes, however, the stats actually highlight his significance in terms of his influence, and this is more relevant than he 'had 52 possessions'.
By my count Kilkenny had 22 possessions in the first half. Of those 22 possessions, 20 were uncontested. 1 was a pass where he was pressured straight away. 1 was a brave win of a breaking ball.
Of the 22 possessions, he ensured Dublin retained possession 19 times. Of the 3 that did not involve retention of possession, he lost the ball once in the tackle inside the Donegal 45, near the sideline. He gave a bad pass towards Paul Flynn in the attacking third, and finally he had a shot which he scored.
Of the 22 possessions he attempted 20 passes. 19 of them were successful, and as mentioned, 1 was unsuccessful.
Of his 19 successful passes, 5 were forward, and 14 were sideways or backwards.
In terms of his influence on scoring chances, he was involved in 8 moves which led to scoring chances.
He had direct assists for Philly McMahon's point, and Diarmuid Connolly's second point. He also scored a point himself. He was also involved in 4 other moves which led to shots, 2 wides, and 2 scores. His involvement was 4,3,1 and 6 passes removed from the shot. He was also involved in the move which led to his own score.
Thanks for that, interesting read.
I still would not have given him man of the match, David Byrne or Kev Mc in my opinion were exceptional as was Copper and McMahon, McHugh for Donegal was very good as always too. KK quarterbacked the whole game, controlled the pace, his fitness levels are unreal, if he had sticked at the Aussie rules im convinced he would of made it.
I think I read somewhere Lee Keegan at 42 possessions, would have to watch it back to see his full influence on the game though.
Keegan's performance was pivotal for Mayo in terms of the end result.
Was Kilkenny's performance pivotal for Dublin?
Just looked at the second half. He got on even more ball there. I have him on 34 possessions in the second half, for a total of 56. I am including a couple of frees and sidelines that he took.
Of the 34 second half possessions, 32 were uncontested, and 2 were contested. Both contested possessions were kickout wins, including a vital fetch, via break, that lead to Mannions goal.
Of the 34 second half possessions, he made sure Dublin retained possession all 34 times.
Of his 34 passess, 9 were forward, and 25 were sideways or backwards. It's also worth noting that he was involved multiple times in certain possessions. Getting on the ball 4, 5 or 6 times as Dublin held the ball and killed the clock, or probed for weakness trying to draw Donegal out. Much more so than in the first half.
In terms of his influence on scoring chances, he had no direct assists, nor any shots himself. He was involved in 4 scoring moves, a McManamon point, Cooper's point, Mannion's Point and Mannion's goal. His involvement was 2, 3, 4 and 10 passes removed from the scoring shot.
He was also involved in 3 other moves which led to scoring chances, 4, 1 and 1 passes removed from the shot chance.
He was certainly very involved, and while I was correct in my assessment that he went 'safety first' a lot, that was obviously part of Dublin's plan and his role. However, his indirect and direct involvement in scoring chances (14 involvements leading to a shot) mean he was more than just a hold up man, he was trying to launch moves and inject pace into stagnant moves at times.
Also notable he was involved 4 times in the move that led to Donegals goal !!! :) Obviously he didn't give the ball away, but that was an instance of where the Dublin plan misfired. They didn't panic though, and continued to play that approach and it paid dividends.
Also notable that he contested 4 high balls. 2 in the first half where he broke a lovely ball from Kavanagh. He also fouled Kavanagh another time. In the second half he won a vital high kickout by breaking it to himself, and he also broke the ball away in a vital defensive position when he was last man back against a Donegal forward with a ball coming into the square.
In general his defensive positioning does look a bit suspect. He sort of drifts around looking for work but doesn't really seem comfortable in either picking runners, or filling a hole. I don't think he'll play the same role against Kerry, but if he does Kerry will try and attack at him.
Fair play for analysing it to such an extent AZ. Hope the Tipp CB are remunerating you for the time spent on this in expectation of a date with Dublin in September!
Lies, damned lies...
I was at a game 2 weeks ago. 1 player, 10 or so possessions'. 1 goal, final pass on 3 goals and 1 point, final pass to 2 players who were subsequently fouled and the free scored, 1 touch where he was fouled and free scored. Now he was a full forward and that's his job but possession on its own its a false stat in my view. Think of Arsenal or Liverpool under Rodgers, lots of possession, no cutting edge. The flip side to that is the likes of United under Ferguson. Not concerned about possession but had real cutting edge. Football is going through a phase at the minute. I still don't understand why teams don't go full court press man to man instead of a zone to borrow basketball parlance. Once a manager has the balls to go for it I think it will flip the coin the other way.
Agree fully about statistics. Stats without context are useless. I've always maintained that. Stats with context are very useful when applied to a specific problem or solution. Example, given Dublin knew Donegal would sit back, they determined to get Kilkenny as many touches as possible, and his instruction, I'm sure, was to retain the ball at all costs, try and switch the play from side to side, and inject pace into a move when possible.
A stats man from Kerry will be looking at that and saying, well, #1 it's probably useless because that won't happen against us. But if it does happen, Jaysus put a man marker on him. Pressure every possession he has and turn a few of those retentions into dispossessions, and you're away at a hack.I admire managers and coaches that can look at a stat, look at a game and marry the two to give them something useful to work on or work against. I hate it when people quote stats like 'they only won 75% of their kickouts', whereas the opposition won 90% of theirs. The question is 'why' and what can you do about it, or with it?
Context is everything but what had happened now is that the stats are seen as a truth in themselves. The funny thing about Kilkenny for instance is I fully believe he is wasted in his role the way he plays. He should spend the majority of his time sitting around the opposition 45 where he has the potential to cut them open. There is just too much fear in the box. I'd love to see a manger unleash the beast and bloody go for it. Mark all the men on kick outs. Press up on them and don't let them settled into their movements. Go and bloody win the game. It can actually be done if the basic skills are worked on.
Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on August 10, 2016, 02:02:16 PM
Context is everything but what had happened now is that the stats are seen as a truth in themselves. The funny thing about Kilkenny for instance is I fully believe he is wasted in his role the way he plays. He should spend the majority of his time sitting around the opposition 45 where he has the potential to cut them open. There is just too much fear in the box. I'd love to see a manger unleash the beast and bloody go for it. Mark all the men on kick outs. Press up on them and don't let them settled into their movements. Go and bloody win the game. It can actually be done if the basic skills are worked on.
If a team plays marks 11 of the opposition's outfield players (leaving the 3 full backs marking 3 full forwards) whilst they are massed in or behind midfield, all it takes is three skillful full forwards left with acres of space, one good ball and possibly a runner coming through to rip them open.
To be fair, I don't think Kilkenny would play like that, or be so lateral, against a Kerry or a Mayo or a Tipp. Those teams will play with more men around that area of the field, so it won't be an option to play keep ball there, and it will be more dangerous for Dublin, who love to attack, to do just that.
His game against Donegal was essentially a basketball point guard with no shot clock. He handled in nearly every possession, he directed traffic, he decided whether to go left or right, forward or back and he took his own sweet time in doing so. In a more open game, he'd be a different animal. If they play him at wing back, and he actually plays more like a wing back, then I think he might not enjoy it as much as he obviously did last weekend.
Against Westmeath, they pulled back at least 2 sweepers as well, but they contested the middle third, and you didn't see nearly as much lateral stuff.
I think Kilkenny will be used in whatever way makes sense, I wouldn't worry about him being pigeon holed like that. I'd be shocked if the game has the same shape v Kerry.
That role you are proposing for Kilkenny may well materialise, and that is the role I would love to see Gooch play for Kerry against Dublin. Float around the attacking 45, try and get on ball and directly influence attacks. A lot of Kilkenny's influence was indirect in terms of the final ball, but he was setting tempo and direction. Gooch would be more of a direct provider and scorer, and Kilkenny could do the same for the Dubs if they decide to try that.
As with all numbers the larger the sample the more accurate the deductions.
if Kilkenny has 50 plus Possessions in every game over a year or more then I think you could say he was a pivotal player compare to a player who toches the ball 7 or 8 times in a match,
A one off sample really doesn't tell you anything more than he the bare fact he handled the ball a lot.
its also possible that the wrong player gets too much possession the lad that's always shouting for the ball and does feck all good with it
Quote from: rosnarun on August 11, 2016, 09:25:07 AM
As with all numbers the larger the sample the more accurate the deductions.
if Kilkenny has 50 plus Possessions in every game over a year or more then I think you could say he was a pivotal player compare to a player who toches the ball 7 or 8 times in a match,
A one off sample really doesn't tell you anything more than he the bare fact he handled the ball a lot.
its also possible that the wrong player gets too much possession the lad that's always shouting for the ball and does feck all good with it
Absolutely. But I'm just talking about this match re his possession stats.
And he definitely wasn't the wrong player, it was the plan (for this match), you could see the Dubs looking for him.
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on August 10, 2016, 10:02:00 AM
Kilkenny was very poor for the first 20 minutes on Saturday
he was dispossessed at least 3 times
I think Ciaran Kilkenny is overrated . Huge fitness level but nothing special. Think any of the Dublin squad could have done that role tbh .
That's very unfair IMO. He hasn't an elegant way about him like Connolly for example but he's a well rounded intelligent footballer who can score so I wouldn't say he is overrated.
Quote from: Zulu on August 11, 2016, 01:07:29 PM
That's very unfair IMO. He hasn't an elegant way about him like Connolly for example but he's a well rounded intelligent footballer who can score so I wouldn't say he is overrated.
Zulu,
He may not be overrated, and to his credit did recover from a bad injury, but how someone who is in reverse gear more than he is in forward gear, can be the favorite for footballer of the year does smell a little hype don't you think.
Saw him playing twice in the flesh this year, league final, where he hung around unmarked for last fifteen minutes between the two fifties and did get a lot of "possessions", but basically went lateral or backwards with more than 75% of same.
Ditto last Sunday, except he was doing it with almost twenty minutes to go, granted they were a man down.
Call me a traditionalist, or just old, but the sight of a talented footballer running back towards his own goal with the ball not even looking for somebody to pass it to, drives me crazy, as it did a few Dub supporters around me.
That sprint back towards his own goal ended with Paul Mannion's goal :)
Quote from: Zulu on August 11, 2016, 01:07:29 PM
That's very unfair IMO. He hasn't an elegant way about him like Connolly for example but he's a well rounded intelligent footballer who can score so I wouldn't say he is overrated.
He is a good footballer and by all accounts is a sound skin .