I thought it might be nice to have a non-pejorative thread title for the subject. And away we go.
Is it the 26th Feb?
Is there not a (non-pejorative) thread already? I thought Declan set one up?
I tell a lie - Declan and AZ both set up threads. I guess Tony felt he had to follow suit.
The only thing I can say is that the Shinners won't do as well as the polls predict...they never do!
FF have promised to restore Man Utd to their f**king perch post election in a clearly populist move
Didn't we haver a forecast competition previously as well? Might be worth doing one again
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2016, 01:45:29 PM
Didn't we haver a forecast competition previously as well? Might be worth doing one again
It would make it infinitely more interesting. I am officially turning off all newsfeeds for 28 days, as of now.
I was driving back to the office after going down to the shop, and there were a pile of lads destroying the place with posters of Michael Noonan. I mean, Jaysus, who needs to see a poster of the Minister for Finance to decide whether to vote for him or not? It's ridiculous shite.
I can see, somewhat, the merit in a new candidate getting their face out there, but a fecking lifer in the Dail, with the top brief outside the Taoiseach? come off it.
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 03, 2016, 02:05:35 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2016, 01:45:29 PM
Didn't we haver a forecast competition previously as well? Might be worth doing one again
It would make it infinitely more interesting. I am officially turning off all newsfeeds for 28 days, as of now.
[/quote
No no relying on family menbers to give you any hints. Youcan only find out thinggs from thid thead.
It'll be nice to have a long weekend. 8)
http://twitter.com/sharontobin/status/694895484301897728/photo/1
I just threw up
How is it an Irish general election when it is confined to the free state?
Quote from: T Fearon on February 03, 2016, 06:34:24 PM
How is it an Irish general election when it is confined to the free state?
All of the Free State is in Ireland.
Quote from: T Fearon on February 03, 2016, 06:34:24 PM
How is it an Irish general election when it is confined to the free state?
Very good point.
Why is Wumtony bothered seeing as he wants to develop a 6 Co culture and identity and wants nothing to do with us lot in the 26.
Statistically unchanged: MRBI: FG 28%(30), Others 25(23), FF 21(19), SF 19(21),Lab 7(7), 1200 polled Mon-Tue this week, +/-3% mgn of error
Should be fun and games negotiating after that -. In other news FG's well publicised plan to change our politics continues unabated http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/farmers-to-receive-9m-in-goodwill-payments-1.2521605 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/farmers-to-receive-9m-in-goodwill-payments-1.2521605)
What odds a second GE in 2016 ???
Quote from: armaghniac on February 03, 2016, 06:42:45 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on February 03, 2016, 06:34:24 PM
How is it an Irish general election when it is confined to the free state?
All of the Free State is in Ireland.
Free State ceased to exist in 1937 - try to keep up, Tony.
Quote from: ashman on February 04, 2016, 08:40:52 AM
What odds a second GE in 2016 ???
I thought about putting 'part I' or something in the title, but decided it would be better to keep it value neutral. Of course, some people take offence at 'Irish' so you can't please everyone.
Getting back to your point, no one can get a majority but there isn't a blocking majority either. The SNP managed to get through five years of government in Scotland with only 47 seats despite a majority being 65. If something, anything, can be cobbled together to get a Taoiseach (i.e. Enda Kenny) elected, then another election would be avoided. You can imagine the threat of another go on the roulette wheel would focus the minds of the incumbent TDs . . .
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 04, 2016, 08:58:22 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 03, 2016, 06:42:45 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on February 03, 2016, 06:34:24 PM
How is it an Irish general election when it is confined to the free state?
All of the Free State is in Ireland.
Free State ceased to exist in 1937 - try to keep up, Tony.
His point is that it is partitionist, Billy. And it is.
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 04, 2016, 08:58:22 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 03, 2016, 06:42:45 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on February 03, 2016, 06:34:24 PM
How is it an Irish general election when it is confined to the free state?
All of the Free State is in Ireland.
Free State ceased to exist in 1937 - try to keep up, Tony.
Jesus will you nordies ever stop calling this place "the free state".
There is very little free here !!!!!
Quote from: seafoid on February 04, 2016, 09:12:46 AM
His point is that it is partitionist, Billy. And it is.
What collective descriptive noun would you use for the upcoming general election in Ireland?
But not all of Ireland is in the free state.
Quote from: T Fearon on February 04, 2016, 09:59:40 AM
But not all of Ireland is in the free state.
None of Ireland is in the Free State.
The man who works 'treminjusly' hard and has a 'strong vice'.
I raise ye James 'Bonkers' Bannon
(http://img.rasset.ie/000b9e56-300.jpg)
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/754333-james-bannon/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/754333-james-bannon/)
I see Vincent Browne was ranting at a bemused and bewildered electorate in Mullingar last night. Mrs. Boots reckons he's mentally ill.
Any potential shocks on the cards? Will Joan Burton hold on to her seat? I don't know why I think this as a shock, but Lucinda Creighton mightn't hold hers. Any other one?
If Alan Kelly losing his would be a shock, then that might be one to keep an eye on. 6 into 5 doesn't go, and Jackie Cahill from Fianna Fail might even make it 7 into 5.
Alan Kelly losing his seat would certainly be a shock, mainly because it would be a challenge to the eternal verity of Irish politics that looking after the parish pump is all that matters. I know they all do it, but he has been as subtle as a Healy Rae about it.
He is relying on it deiseach. It is his main electoral plank. This quote sums it up.
"In the last five years when you needed to get things done in Tipperary; when you needed jobs, schools, hospitals to be built, the roads to be done, any amenities, it was Alan Kelly that [you] contacted."
and
"In Tipperary, your village or your town is everything... I am loyal firstly to my family. I am loyal then to my parish; then to my area; my county; my country. That's the way I am mentally built."
I mean in one way I admire him. He's honest about it and doesn't give a shite if people think he's an arrogant Parish Pump politician. If he were just Joe Bloggs TD (like Michael Lowry) I might even praise him for it. But this lad is ambitious to be a leading light in government, and is just after holding an important ministerial brief, and he's basically saying the Country comes last in his list of priorities :)
QuoteBut this lad is ambitious to be a leading light in government, and is just after holding an important ministerial brief, and he's basically saying the Country comes last in his list of priorities
Spot on AZ
Quote from: Declan on February 04, 2016, 04:32:07 PM
QuoteBut this lad is ambitious to be a leading light in government, and is just after holding an important ministerial brief, and he's basically saying the Country comes last in his list of priorities
Spot on AZ
Ya can only get elected in your own Constituency.
All politics is local as some famous chap once said ( Tip O'Neill?)
As someone who doesn't pay USC, can anyone explain to me if and how it is different to income tax? i.e. what difference would it make, if any, if USC was cut by X% and PAYE raised by X%?
Cake seems to be in trouble in Ros/Galway
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 09, 2016, 05:56:54 PM
As someone who doesn't pay USC, can anyone explain to me if and how it is different to income tax? i.e. what difference would it make, if any, if USC was cut by X% and PAYE raised by X%?
USC is paid on everything - no allowances for pension deductions e.g.
Quote from: seafoid on February 09, 2016, 06:16:11 PM
Cake seems to be in trouble in Ros/Galway
Hopefully the b*#*#*x.
Didn't hear him earlier but folks are saying he was a disaster on Shannonside earlier.
Meanwhile I've almost split my sides laughing at the SF manifesto.
Quote from: Rossfan on February 09, 2016, 06:41:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 09, 2016, 06:16:11 PM
Cake seems to be in trouble in Ros/Galway
Hopefully the b*#*#*x.
Didn't hear him earlier but folks are saying he was a disaster on Shannonside earlier.
Meanwhile I've almost split my sides laughing at the SF manifesto.
You actually read manifestoes?
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 09, 2016, 09:55:25 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 09, 2016, 06:41:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 09, 2016, 06:16:11 PM
Cake seems to be in trouble in Ros/Galway
Hopefully the b*#*#*x.
Didn't hear him earlier but folks are saying he was a disaster on Shannonside earlier.
Meanwhile I've almost split my sides laughing at the SF manifesto.
You actually read manifestoes?
Nooooo. Just the report on the News.
FG FF and Lab have produced works of fiction but SF are pure comedy.
The rest don't count so they can excrete any matter they like.
What do people think of the new Sinn Fein colour scheme. Just like Donegal footballers did in the early nineties they've switched from green to gold. Personally I like it. It's fresh and modern and it will help Rte on election count day who always struggle with the 3 shades of green for FF the Green Party and SF
Sinn Fein are obviously morphing away from their past towards a more coherent southern force. Some of their ideas like 100K social houses and a sugar tax are very progressive. I bet Mary Lou can't wait for Adams to shuffle off the stage
At least it's not affecting our sense of humour
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xta1/v/t1.0-9/12509044_978692432224264_5391094449755128880_n.jpg?oh=c1fafc0d26aefcd6788bc0ce61891f3a&oe=57329BDF&__gda__=1463201878_14d6a0701f572c66ecfacefc00894d4a)
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xlp1/v/t1.0-9/1933872_10204160177605067_8391379826473235870_n.jpg?oh=1357d1eff041571a1fa54ecbf531b2d8&oe=57335306&__gda__=1462714643_08500c2fc7f8b7ec800a159a5b730f08)
Likely outcome??
http://elaine.ie/2016/02/10/fine-gael-fianna-fail-coalition/ (http://elaine.ie/2016/02/10/fine-gael-fianna-fail-coalition/)
Did ye get this email into yer clubs lads?
From: Secretary Tipperary
Sent: 10 February 2016 11:01
To: Clubsecretaries.tipperary@gaa.ie
Subject: Fw: General Election
A chara,
Given that a General Election campaign is underway, it is timely to remind units of
Rule 1.11:
Non-Party Political
The Association shall be non-party political. Party political questions shall not be discussed at its meetings, and no Committee, Club, Council or representative thereof shall take part, as such, in any party political movement. A penalty of up to twenty four weeks suspension may be imposed for infringement.
Please note that, in response to a query from a County Committee, the Rules Advisory Committee confirmed at its meeting of 12 Márta last year, this rule also cover Independent candidates.
Is mise le meas,
Páraic
Páraic Ó Dufaigh/Páraic Duffy
Ard Stiúrthóir/Director General
It's safe to send that round now AZ, because there will be no Sports Capital Grants awarded this year. :p
Hadn't seen that mail AZ.
QuoteParty political questions shall not be discussed at its meetings, and no Committee, Club, Council or representative thereof shall take part, as such, in any party political movement.
Is my reading of this that you can be a member of a political party but just not bring it up at meetings or is it a blanket ban on being a member of a political party?
Quote from: Declan on February 10, 2016, 01:20:57 PM
Likely outcome??
http://elaine.ie/2016/02/10/fine-gael-fianna-fail-coalition/ (http://elaine.ie/2016/02/10/fine-gael-fianna-fail-coalition/)
Irish Times predictions ( totals from their Constituency predictions)
Blueshirts 54
Builders/Auctioneers Party 34
Sons of Slab 23
Labour 16
Lucy's lùlàs 3
Róisin/ Murphy/Donnelly 3
Anti everything alliance 4
Greenies 1
All kinds of everything Independent and others 20.
So what will be the outcome of the October election??
Quote from: Declan on February 10, 2016, 03:33:24 PM
Hadn't seen that mail AZ.
QuoteParty political questions shall not be discussed at its meetings, and no Committee, Club, Council or representative thereof shall take part, as such, in any party political movement.
Is my reading of this that you can be a member of a political party but just not bring it up at meetings or is it a blanket ban on being a member of a political party?
It means you cannot 'represent' the GAA and be part of any party. In a personal capacity, you can do what you like, but you cannot be Joe Bloggs, of Tipperary GAA.
From the Indo...
FG 60
FF 29
SF 24
Lab 12
Independents 18
Triple A Golden Mavericks 4
Renua 4
Greens 1
Social Dems 3
ULA 1
People Before Profit 1
That leaves me a few deputies short by my count, maybe I missed a couple.
This is interesting enough. Get a look at all the candidates in a 50 second promo, hosted by RTE.
You can filter by party, or by constituency.
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/)
Definitely different - Martin Heydon South Kildare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6FkRjjGsBM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6FkRjjGsBM)
Quote from: Dinny Breen on February 11, 2016, 12:45:26 PM
Definitely different - Martin Heydon South Kildare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6FkRjjGsBM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6FkRjjGsBM)
Holy Jaysus.
Getting very interesting now. FG and Labour are nowhere near 50%. FF are on a similar level to SF.
Indos seem to be doing well. Lot of people not happy with things.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/ivan-yates/cornerstone-of-stability-is-shaky-in-a-highly-fluid-and-unpredictable-election-34443266.html
Quote from: seafoid on February 11, 2016, 06:06:55 PM
Getting very interesting now. FG and Labour are nowhere near 50%. FF are on a similar level to SF.
Indos seem to be doing well. Lot of people not happy with things.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/ivan-yates/cornerstone-of-stability-is-shaky-in-a-highly-fluid-and-unpredictable-election-34443266.html
Didn't read the article, but I can't imagine it being any other way come the election. I can't see FG not being in government, but they may have to depend on the Lowrys and independents cut from the same cloths as them if they want to govern again. That is with the help of a depleted Labour party.
Expect the " stable Government " cliche to become very prevelant from now to polling day.
On the debate there on TV3, Martin did decently, Enda was wooden, Burton's screeching did Labour no favours and Adams looked very uncomfortable re the Special Criminal Court.
"Burton's screeching"
Two years she lectured me for................two years. And that was before she glammed up!
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on February 11, 2016, 11:21:46 PM
"Burton's screeching"
Two years she lectured me for................two years. And that was before she glammed up!
Accountants deserve her.
Martin was the most impressive .
Gerry won hands down.
Took Martin to town when he was moralising about the O6.
What did Fianna Fail ever do for the O6? They stood by obsequiously while a foreign military raised hell on Irish soil in a sectarian statelet they were complicit in a situation they allowed fester. It's hard to listen to a guy talk about matters in the O6 when his party have no interest in them.
Fianna Fail were a party that introduced internment, so it's hardly surprising they are a bit warped on justice.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 11, 2016, 11:41:56 PM
Gerry won hands down.
Took Martin to town when he was moralising about the O6.
What did Fianna Fail ever do for the O6? They stood by obsequiously while a foreign military raised hell on Irish soil in a sectarian statelet they were complicit in a situation they allowed fester. It's hard to listen to a guy talk about matters in the O6 when his party have no interest in them.
Fianna Fail were a party that introduced internment, so it's hardly surprising they are a bit warped on justice.
What whiskey or indeed whisky are you drinking !
Quote from: ashman on February 11, 2016, 11:58:13 PM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 11, 2016, 11:41:56 PM
Gerry won hands down.
Took Martin to town when he was moralising about the O6.
What did Fianna Fail ever do for the O6? They stood by obsequiously while a foreign military raised hell on Irish soil in a sectarian statelet they were complicit in a situation they allowed fester. It's hard to listen to a guy talk about matters in the O6 when his party have no interest in them.
Fianna Fail were a party that introduced internment, so it's hardly surprising they are a bit warped on justice.
What whiskey or indeed whisky are you drinking !
I think it's the height of hypocrisy for politicians from the 26 who have no presence in the O6 to try and point score off The Troubles. They had a huge part to play in how the conflict festered and escalated and did absolutely nothing to intervene of protect the northern nationalists. They have never bothered to attempt to unearth the truth about the Dublin and Monaghan bombings but were willing to lock up republicans without a trial or any evidence.
Their party is shamed with interning republicans, sending them to death squads and allowing prisoners to starve themselves to death. The taste of power made them lose any sense of social conscience.
They have some f**king cheek to call themselves a Republican party, they have some bizarre interpretation of justice.
Quote from: ashman on February 11, 2016, 11:34:43 PM
Martin was the most impressive .
Jaysus, that is sad in itself.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 12, 2016, 12:43:56 AM
Quote from: ashman on February 11, 2016, 11:58:13 PM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 11, 2016, 11:41:56 PM
Gerry won hands down.
Took Martin to town when he was moralising about the O6.
What did Fianna Fail ever do for the O6? They stood by obsequiously while a foreign military raised hell on Irish soil in a sectarian statelet they were complicit in a situation they allowed fester. It's hard to listen to a guy talk about matters in the O6 when his party have no interest in them.
Fianna Fail were a party that introduced internment, so it's hardly surprising they are a bit warped on justice.
What whiskey or indeed whisky are you drinking !
I think it's the height of hypocrisy for politicians from the 26 who have no presence in the O6 to try and point score off The Troubles. They had a huge part to play in how the conflict festered and escalated and did absolutely nothing to intervene of protect the northern nationalists. They have never bothered to attempt to unearth the truth about the Dublin and Monaghan bombings but were willing to lock up republicans without a trial or any evidence.
Their party is shamed with interning republicans, sending them to death squads and allowing prisoners to starve themselves to death. The taste of power made them lose any sense of social conscience.
They have some f**king cheek to call themselves a Republican party, they have some bizarre interpretation of justice.
Agreed, Burton pissed me off the most, constantly heckling & making sly one-liners to Adams re what SF are doing in the North - when her party in government ignored the situation in the North for the last 5 years
It was gas watching Adams speak without a silencer. For years he was dumbed by Section 23. Most of the talking points of the 4 were bollocking. There will be little growth until we get a new economic system. The US economy is fucked.
Watching that nonsense last night only further confirmed my pinion that I'll find it very difficult to cast for a vote for any of them
Can't really see the point of these debates myself besides getting the political journalists and anoraks in a flap. Would be surprised if say a 1,000 people in the whole country changed their voting intentions by watching it. All pre rehearsed soundbytes, buzz words and "off the cuff retorts" when on the back foot. Yawn.
Write Micheál Martin off at your peril. Think FF will kick themselves for not running more candidates in certain constituencies.
Have to say though his picture on the posters is not the most flattering.
Quote from: Declan on February 12, 2016, 11:30:59 AM
Watching that nonsense last night only further confirmed my pinion that I'll find it very difficult to cast for a vote for any of them
Hard to find any of them likeable. Last night I found Enda the most unlikeable.
I reckon FF, FG and Lab are all delighted that Gerry is still leader of SF.
Quote from: Canalman on February 12, 2016, 12:19:16 PM
Think FF will kick themselves for not running more candidates in certain constituencies.
Any constituency in particular?
Quote from: deiseach on February 12, 2016, 12:38:31 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 12, 2016, 12:19:16 PM
Think FF will kick themselves for not running more candidates in certain constituencies.
Any constituency in particular?
Several in Dublin, Waterford (I think they have only one but stand to be corrected) and a couple in Co. Cork. Maybe more.
Just think that they might have picked up maybe 3 or 4 seats or been in a fight for them if they ran 2nd candidates. Even a 2nd "sweeper" candidate gets the exposure for future runs (maybe in October again).
Just my hunch that they might be being a little too conservative and might regret it if the old traditional FF vote drifts back to them.
Quote from: Canalman on February 12, 2016, 12:19:16 PM
Can't really see the point of these debates myself besides getting the political journalists and anoraks in a flap. Would be surprised if say a 1,000 people in the whole country changed their voting intentions by watching it. All pre rehearsed soundbytes, buzz words and "off the cuff retorts" when on the back foot. Yawn.
Write Micheál Martin off at your peril. Think FF will kick themselves for not running more candidates in certain constituencies.
Have to say though his picture on the posters is not the most flattering.
I like his tie. The FF slogan is Ireland for all. Surprised Tony F hasn't mentioned it yet.
Kenny and Martin are both quite weak. Martin brought in the HSE which is a hames. Maybe he is the best of the FF remnant. Some good young wans coming up like Varadkar and Kelly and Piaras. I think Clare Daly is the best speaker.
I'd say with some confidence that FF have no hope of getting a second seat in Waterford, and a second candidate would torpedo any chance they might have of getting one. There would just be too much transfer leakage to get them ahead at the final count. As for Dublin, it's not inconceivable that they'd only get two seats in the entire city/county.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/696331139536003072/UVzhvUSw_400x400.png)
I don't know why I keep thinking this. Must be subliminal.
Quote from: foxcommander on February 12, 2016, 02:01:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/696331139536003072/UVzhvUSw_400x400.png)
I don't know why I keep thinking this. Must be subliminal.
It's supposed to be about the economy. But it doesn't seem to be this time around.
The way things are going, unless FF and FG get it on together there will be a second election. The untouchable shinners are going to take 15 tds off labour and FF will take some off FG.
A lot of Dubs in working class areas are blaming Labour for the collapse of that other Red outfit, Man Utd.
FF have a long way back. At least 3 elections it takes from a meltdown, apparently
From Sunday tribune RIP, 2011
'Brian Cowen came across as the kind of leader many once predicted he would be. Except, of course, it was all a mirage...'
His elevation to Taoiseach in 2008 was greeted as a new beginning, a leader unlike Bertie Ahern who would tell it like it was. And then he went and spoiled it all from the word go. Mired in lethargy, behind the curve at every juncture and engulfed in the banking crisis, Brian Cowen failed to live up to what he once promised, writes Michael Clifford
Taoiseach Brian Cowen: last December his public approval was rated at 14%
Leadership, how are you? He looked out on the nation and presented himself as the type of man who might inspire you to follow him to hell and back. He was confident, assured, passionate and fortified in the belief that he was there to serve with every fibre of his ability. For a little while there last Sunday evening, Brian Cowen had located the lost leader within him. Announcing that he would remain on as Fianna Fáil leader, he laid out his priority. "The most important issue I have had to consider is what is in the best interests of the country at this time," he said. In other words, the country needed him, although opinion polls suggest that many would add, "like a hole in the head". He had spent three days "consulting" his party colleagues about his qualities. He had been elevated to the leadership by acclaim less than three years ago, and now he was sheepishly asking backbenchers whether they thought he was up to the job. On balance, they concurred that the country and the party needed him. And once he decided he would stand and fight for the leadership, there was no doubt that for a few days at least, we'd get to see the best of Cowen. So it turned out. For three days, he played a blinder. In media interviews both before and after Tuesday's vote of confidence by the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, Cowen came across as the kind of leader many once predicted he would be. Except, of course, it was all a mirage. Appearances by this phantom have been made with great economy. Only when he's under threat, or when the party, as opposed to the country, calls on him, does this incarnation of Cowen manifest itself.
Last July, he put in an appearance at a parliamentary party meeting when there were rumblings about his leadership. He gave what was described as a "rousing" speech. One of his critics, Noel O'Flynn, expressed his reservations about Cowen, but that contribution was met with a "stony silence". In November, in a draughty hall in Castlefin in Donegal, during the by-election campaign, he electrified an audience of 400 party faithful with a call to arms. The only journalist in the hall, Lise Hand, reported that the speech took flight. "This wasn't a speech from the neck up," she wrote. "His whole body practically levitated from the stage as he wrestled to express himself." On that occasion, what particularly exercised him was an accusation from Eamon Gilmore that he was guilty of economic treason. The charge was grossly unfair, but it lit a fire within Cowen. Yet issues of far greater import to the nation have failed to elicit anything like that degree of passion. There were a few other sightings. Most notably, in February 2009, he addressed the Dublin Chamber of Commerce in a speech that was greeted as if it represented the discovery of a leader who had been lost in the desert since assuming the top job the previous year. The fleeting nature of these sightings of the lost leader were once grasped as a straw of hope that the real Brian Cowen was about to stand up. But no more. By last week, nobody really gave a fig that he was once again donning his Superman pyjamas for a brief run out. Through his tenure, up until last Thursday, one thing had been clear. Cowen was a dab hand at the business of politics. Governing, in all its requirements, is another matter entirely. Maybe once upon a time, with a pliable media and subservient citizenry, his approach might have worked. Not now. Not in today's world.
His elevation in May 2008 was greeted in many quarters as a new beginning, a Taoiseach who would tell it like it is, a stand-up guy to replace slippery Bertie Ahern. A closer look at Cowen's CV might have prompted second thoughts. He was a great man for sticking it to the other crowd in the Dáil. If the troops required rallying, there was no better boy. He wore his intelligence lightly and it shone through in his humour, his humanity. Everybody said he was great company, but what exactly had he done in politics? Despite having served in six different portfolios, he had effectively risen without a trace. His service in high office had been at a time when the living was easy. Through the early '90s, as the economy was taking off, his stewardship of the portfolios of Energy, Transport and Labour were unremarkable and not encumbered with any great hassle. You could rely on his safe hands, but precious little dirt had gathered under his fingernails. Unlike, for instance, Ahern, in the portfolios of Labour and Finance in the late 1980s and early '90s, Cowen had not been called on to roll up the sleeves and put in the long, frustrating hours. He was unhappy at the manner in which his mentor, Albert Reynolds, was shafted in 1994, but he settled down under the great conciliator Ahern. Hard days beckoned with his appointment as health minister in 1997. However, he was through the gap in less than three years, leaving behind the minefield he dubbed "Angola". The foreign affairs brief was a piece of cake. He could master a brief easy enough and clink glasses with the best of them. Then came Finance, in 2004, just as the bubble was getting bubblier. Here was the chance for him to show what he was worth. He wasn't working with a blank canvas. Ahern and Charlie McCreevy had perfected a system of using the exchequer as an election fighting fund, and feeding off the property bubble to cut taxes and pump up spending. Any fiddling with the formula would not have been tolerated.
This was evident prior to the 2007 party ardfheis. Cowen was reportedly unhappy at the exuberant promises Ahern intended to peddle at a time when dark clouds were gathering offshore. He made his displeasure known, but Ahern prevailed and went out to promise €4bn in tax cuts and an increase in the weekly pension to €300. When Ahern's grubby money issues threatened to implode the party's campaign in the 2007 election, Cowen stepped in and took the reins with a steady hand. Power was under threat. His expected elevation to taoiseach was under threat. He was hell on wheels when it came to dispelling the threats.
When he was unanimously elected party leader the following year, he spoke of his pride. "On a personal level, I am excited by the challenge, if somewhat daunted by the responsibility. That sense of responsibility is rooted in the history of the party and the achievements of its leaders. One of their number, Seán Lemass – a political giant in our cause – described most eloquently for me, what should be at the heart of politics. 'Personally, I believe that national progress of any kind depends on an upsurge of patriotism – a revival of patriotism if you will directed towards constructive purposes.' "I remarked to my colleagues in the parliamentary party this morning that on this occasion it is incumbent on all of us to subscribe and rededicate ourselves to that political credo today." Then he went and spoiled it all from the word go. Appointing his close ally Mary Coughlan as Tánaiste was perfectly acceptable. Handing her the important portfolio of Enterprise, Trade and Employment was not. She was ill-suited to the task, but her suitability was regarded by Cowen as less relevant than her loyalty. The economic portfolio was handed out as a goodie, rather than allocated to somebody who would make the best fist of it. THERE _WAS NOBODY ELSE At the time, the surprise appointment of Brian Lenihan to Finance was seen as inspired. He was promoted ahead of the favourites, Dermot Ahern and Micheál Martin, and regarded as a very bright prospect. In retrospect, perhaps Cowen just saw him as less of a threat than the other two. The messy business of governing beckoned. He was ill-equipped to tackle the tsunami about to wash across the country. He had sailed all the way to the leadership, never knowing hard days. And the baggage of having served in the engine room, when the arse was being blown out of the bubble, weighed heavy on him.
As a result, he was behind the curve at every juncture, trying to shake a lethargy that seemed to engulf him. As finance minister he failed to rein in spending after the 2007 election, as his predecessor had cynically done in 2002. When the world began to tremble in the summer of 2008, he saw no reason to recall the Dáil. He had quite patently taken his eye off the crumbling foundations of Anglo. In the last days of August, he was to be found at the Fleadh Cheoil in Tullamore, belting out a rendition of 'Paddy's Shamrock Green Shore'. Since then, his stock has continued to plummet. In November of that year, an Irish Times opinion poll had him at 26% satisfaction, half the level he enjoyed six months earlier on assuming office. Last month his rating was at 14%. He dived into the blanket bank guarantee, at the behest of bankers who weren't imparting the full truth. Whether or not it was the rashness of that move, caution informed everything he did thereafter, at a time when speed was required.
Even for those who agreed with his policy choices, the slowness to act blighted every effort to raise the country from the mire. Maybe outside intervention would have been required irrespective of how decisively and swiftly he had acted throughout the preceding two years, but the general perception is that he bears major responsibility. Last Saturday, Lorenzo Smaghi, a member of the European Central Bank's executive board told the Irish Times that Cowen and Lenihan had been asked several times last autumn to bring the budget forward to reassure the markets. But as usual, swift action was sacrificed in the name of caution. And perception is where Cowen has been at his worst. His failure to properly communicate with those beyond his tribe, on occasions when he isn't personally under threat, has been his greatest failure. In 1986, he summed up his approach to politics in a newspaper interview. "Nothing great can be achieved in government or any area of life unless it is done with enthusiasm," he said. Precious few have seen any signs of enthusiasm in his efforts to bring the people with him over the past few years. The lost leader disappeared back into his cave on Wednesday, having swatted away the threat to his leadership. He put in a giddy Dáil performance, and then instructed that a video of his performance be forwarded to supporters. It's not clear whether he wanted to reassure them that he was still top of the heap in mixing it in the Dáil, or whether he just wanted to show off his humorous quips.
The following day, he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and it was down to his inability to appreciate the role of perception in modern politics. The constitution was on his side. Procedure was on his side. What had perception got to do with it if he wanted to replace six cabinet ministers? Once more, his focus was on the party, his own future, how best to freshen up the party ahead of the election. He couldn't see how it would be perceived beyond the tribe. There was no appreciation of how it smelt of nakedly using high office in pursuit of electoral gain. He was out of touch with the people whom he had pledged to serve. It was a sad, cynical swansong to a political career that once promised so much.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tg4-debate-in-irish-cancelled-over-joan-burton-s-and-gerry-adams-lack-of-fluency-1.2534709?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
TG4 debate in Irish cancelled over Joan Burton's and Gerry Adams' lack of fluency
Jaysus I thought Gerry Adams was fluent.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 14, 2016, 10:31:12 PM
Jaysus I thought Gerry Adams was fluent.
there might be something else going on. FG and Lab are going backwards in the polls. Next week will feature an all out assault on FF
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 14, 2016, 10:31:12 PM
Jaysus I thought Gerry Adams was fluent.
He's not incredibly fluent in English.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 14, 2016, 10:31:12 PM
Jaysus I thought Gerry Adams was fluent.
Déanann Gearóid dùnmharù ar an nGaeilge :-\
7 leaders, it'll be craic if they all try to start talking over one another.
Stephen Donnelly far and away the best performer so far tonight.
Adams getting himself flummoxed every time he has to mention figures.
Much better moderated, Claire Byrne excellent and very little shouting over each other.
I thought we had it bad up here having to listen to Catriona Ruane and Dolores Kelly but feck me Joan Burton is brutal
Nearly feel sorry for Burton, looks like she's feeling the strain big time. But my god, she's awful to listen to
Stephen Donnelly clear winner. Claire Byrne class. Enda is an awful sneery bolax.
Quote from: mrdeeds on February 15, 2016, 11:25:33 PM
Stephen Donnelly clear winner. Claire Byrne class. Enda is an awful sneery bolax.
Donnelly lots of soundbites . Clare byrne mediocre lacks the intellectual rigour , lot of cheap soundbites . Not bad looking to be fair .
A waste of time tbh . The next govt wil be decided by mathematics , not politics.
Had it on but was only half listening. Does anyone other than the media give a damn about this type of thing? Debating has nothing to do with being in govt / running a country
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 16, 2016, 12:05:47 AM
Had it on but was only half listening. Does anyone other than the media give a damn about this type of thing? Debating has nothing to do with being in govt / running a country
Well if you're an undecided voter, surely they help you form an opinion...
Loads of soundbites and big talk .
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Listening to Terry Prone yesterday and she was saying that the debates are irrelevant in terms of the actual vote. The only people who are interested in them are the media and political anoraks.
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 12:49:37 AM
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Only an option I'd say if Adams plays no part - would probably have to resign as SF leader.
It would be the ideal result for FF. Would put them as the main alternative come the following election.
Still hard to see anything other than a FG/Lab/Rainbow coalition.
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 12:49:37 AM
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Complete wishful thinking on his part.
Quote from: Declan on February 16, 2016, 08:35:01 AM
Listening to Terry Prone yesterday and she was saying that the debates are irrelevant in terms of the actual vote. The only people who are interested in them are the media and political anoraks.
She is 100% right.
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 12:49:37 AM
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Never ever happen. Each party despises the other.
A dream for FF if it did, which it won't.
If numbers add up FF and SF I think could do business. Sameish gene pool.
Quote from: Hound on February 16, 2016, 08:50:03 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 12:49:37 AM
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Only an option I'd say if Adams plays no part - would probably have to resign as SF leader.
It would be the ideal result for FF. Would put them as the main alternative come the following election.
Still hard to see anything other than a FG/Lab/Rainbow coalition.
Isn't this the main objective of several parties ... FF, SF and maybe even Labour would like to take a break in opposition.
Quote from: StephenC on February 16, 2016, 09:55:06 AM
Isn't this the main objective of several parties ... FF, SF and maybe even Labour would like to take a break in opposition.
It's gas, isn't it? All this jockeying to NOT be in government.
If the numbers stack up the scenario I see developing is a grand coalition of FF & FG but with Michael and Enda having to take one for the team and the new guard comes in
Quote from: StephenC on February 16, 2016, 09:55:06 AM
Quote from: Hound on February 16, 2016, 08:50:03 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 12:49:37 AM
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Only an option I'd say if Adams plays no part - would probably have to resign as SF leader.
It would be the ideal result for FF. Would put them as the main alternative come the following election.
Still hard to see anything other than a FG/Lab/Rainbow coalition.
Isn't this the main objective of several parties ... FF, SF and maybe even Labour would like to take a break in opposition.
Nail on the head there. That is why I think we will need a second election to sort things out. Too many of the big players jockeying to be the main opposition party with a view to gaining power outrightish in 4 or 5 years.
Too many of the independents more worried about holding their seats at the next election to bother supporting a government.
Quote from: Canalman on February 16, 2016, 09:30:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 12:49:37 AM
I met Eamon O Cuiv this evening in Indreabhan and he thinks the next Gov will be FG agus SF
Never ever happen. Each party despises the other.
A dream for FF if it did, which it won't.
If numbers add up FF and SF I think could do business. Sameish gene pool.
A deal on irish water et voilà. The name of the game is power. 2 in a row for FG, first time...
Quote from: Canalman on February 16, 2016, 09:27:27 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 16, 2016, 08:35:01 AM
Listening to Terry Prone yesterday and she was saying that the debates are irrelevant in terms of the actual vote. The only people who are interested in them are the media and political anoraks.
She is 100% right.
She is, because it was her ilk, sorry profession, that dreamt up the nonsense. At least they're now admitting that it's nonsense.
David McCann of Slugger O'Toole has a piece on what (if anything) the main parties have planned for the North.
http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/02/15/who-do-the-southern-parties-have-planned-for-northern-ireland/
Was Joan Burton a school teacher before she went into the Dáil? She looks and acts so much like a school teacher. One of those old style, really, really annoying school teachers. She has a voice like a klaxxon.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 10:45:41 AM
Was Joan Burton a school teacher before she went into the Dáil? She looks and acts so much like a school teacher. One of those old style, really, really annoying school teachers. She has a voice like a klaxxon.
I think some said on here last week that she lectured them for 2 years, so a college lecturer rather than a teacher? same difference...
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 10:45:41 AM
Was Joan Burton a school teacher before she went into the Dáil? She looks and acts so much like a school teacher. One of those old style, really, really annoying school teachers. She has a voice like a klaxxon.
As noted by Shamrock Shore previously, she was an accounting lecturer in DIT.
Quote from: ashman on February 16, 2016, 12:42:51 AM
Loads of soundbites and big talk .
A bit self critical but you're not far off the mark.
Quote from: mikehunt on February 16, 2016, 02:53:00 PM
Quote from: ashman on February 16, 2016, 12:42:51 AM
Loads of soundbites and big talk .
A bit self critical but you're not far off the mark.
Self critism is an importance step in the pursuit of excellence .
Just looking at the projections et al, I don't know how there can be any sort of meaningful coalition. If FG get roughly 56-58, they'd nearly need another 30 with them, and Labour are not going to get near that. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein would perhaps be in that ballpark, but I can't see FG going in with either of them, and I can't see FF and SF having enough to even rely on the Healy Raes and Mattie McGrath types.
You might see something like FG + Labour + Renua + a lock of independents. I certainly can't see FG and Labour attracting too many AAA or left wing independents.
How about this as a dark horse. Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein?
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:26:57 PM
Just looking at the projections et al, I don't know how there can be any sort of meaningful coalition. If FG get roughly 56-58, they'd nearly need another 30 with them, and Labour are not going to get near that. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein would perhaps be in that ballpark, but I can't see FG going in with either of them, and I can't see FF and SF having enough to even rely on the Healy Raes and Mattie McGrath types.
You might see something like FG + Labour + Renua + a lock of independents. I certainly can't see FG and Labour attracting too many AAA or left wing independents.
How about this as a dark horse. Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein?
FG SF
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 04:50:42 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:26:57 PM
Just looking at the projections et al, I don't know how there can be any sort of meaningful coalition. If FG get roughly 56-58, they'd nearly need another 30 with them, and Labour are not going to get near that. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein would perhaps be in that ballpark, but I can't see FG going in with either of them, and I can't see FF and SF having enough to even rely on the Healy Raes and Mattie McGrath types.
You might see something like FG + Labour + Renua + a lock of independents. I certainly can't see FG and Labour attracting too many AAA or left wing independents.
How about this as a dark horse. Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein?
FG SF
I can't see that. They do genuinely seem to hate each other.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 16, 2016, 10:52:19 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 10:45:41 AM
Was Joan Burton a school teacher before she went into the Dáil? She looks and acts so much like a school teacher. One of those old style, really, really annoying school teachers. She has a voice like a klaxxon.
As noted by Shamrock Shore previously, she was an accounting lecturer in DIT.
Yes - she lectured me in Accounting in The College of Commerce in Rathmines in 1986 and 1987. It was a dreadful experience.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:26:57 PM
How about this as a dark horse. Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein?
No chance. SF expected to get more seats than Labour, giving them the position of Tanaiste. There's nothing for Labour in that scenario. If Labour aren't number 2 in the government, they'll go into opposition.
Will the "Coping classes" rally to the Govt candidates at the end of the day to avoid instability or a SF/ loonytoons combination?
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 04:50:42 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:26:57 PM
Just looking at the projections et al, I don't know how there can be any sort of meaningful coalition. If FG get roughly 56-58, they'd nearly need another 30 with them, and Labour are not going to get near that. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein would perhaps be in that ballpark, but I can't see FG going in with either of them, and I can't see FF and SF having enough to even rely on the Healy Raes and Mattie McGrath types.
You might see something like FG + Labour + Renua + a lock of independents. I certainly can't see FG and Labour attracting too many AAA or left wing independents.
How about this as a dark horse. Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein?
FG SF
I can't see that. They do genuinely seem to hate each other.
SF want to tax anyone earning more than a Labour voters wage to death. That would be FG's target voter (they used to be in FF territory too), whether that voter is willing this time to vote FG or not is another issue.
Nonetheless, FG and SF are completely incompatible unless Jurry sells out wholesale.
As for FG and FF, why not? All it takes is for Micheál to be removed and there is very little of the toxic old party left in FF. FF might want a few old heads gone in FG too, which mightn't be the worst thing to ever happen the country.
What can't happen is a left leaning coalition of scrap all taxes and austerity for everyone (of their voters) and pay for everything by taxing 'the rich' (i.e. the tax paying workers who currently pay for almost everything). But this is still a real possibility. If it does happen hopefully it won't last long and it collapses under the weight of its impossible promises quickly.
Quote from: muppet on February 16, 2016, 06:49:46 PM
What can't happen is a left leaning coalition of scrap all taxes and austerity for everyone (of their voters) and pay for everything by taxing 'the rich' (i.e. the tax paying workers who currently pay for almost everything). But this is still a real possibility. If it does happen hopefully it won't last long and it collapses under the weight of its impossible promises quickly.
Boyd Barrett said last night we can get €4 billion by making companies pay 12.5% instead of the 2.5%-6% tax they are paying!
There is a feckin eejit in one of the universities who spouts this nonsense and gets loads of airtime because the media love putting the country down, and people believe him
No doubt MNCs are avoiding tax - but its not Irish tax!
One of the best ideas I heard is to leave all taxes, welfare and public sector pay as it is. Then work on using the recovery to fix Health and Education and increase Employment. When that's done then we can start thinking about what to do with excess exchequer funds.
Quote from: muppet on February 16, 2016, 06:49:46 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:52:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2016, 04:50:42 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 16, 2016, 04:26:57 PM
Just looking at the projections et al, I don't know how there can be any sort of meaningful coalition. If FG get roughly 56-58, they'd nearly need another 30 with them, and Labour are not going to get near that. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein would perhaps be in that ballpark, but I can't see FG going in with either of them, and I can't see FF and SF having enough to even rely on the Healy Raes and Mattie McGrath types.
You might see something like FG + Labour + Renua + a lock of independents. I certainly can't see FG and Labour attracting too many AAA or left wing independents.
How about this as a dark horse. Fianna Fail/Labour/Sinn Fein?
FG SF
I can't see that. They do genuinely seem to hate each other.
SF want to tax anyone earning more than a Labour voters wage to death. That would be FG's target voter (they used to be in FF territory too), whether that voter is willing this time to vote FG or not is another issue.
Nonetheless, FG and SF are completely incompatible unless Jurry sells out wholesale.
As for FG and FF, why not? All it takes is for Micheál to be removed and there is very little of the toxic old party left in FF. FF might want a few old heads gone in FG too, which mightn't be the worst thing to ever happen the country.
What can't happen is a left leaning coalition of scrap all taxes and austerity for everyone (of their voters) and pay for everything by taxing 'the rich' (i.e. the tax paying workers who currently pay for almost everything). But this is still a real possibility. If it does happen hopefully it won't last long and it collapses under the weight of its impossible promises quickly.
According to Dev Og yesterday FF voters won't go near FG. I think FF could be swallowed up
FG SF with a deal on Irish water
If SF can lie with the DUP FG will be a doddle
Latest polls show support for FG down to 26% so very interesting times ahead if those numbers hold true on election day.
My constituency is Meath East and I'd have thought it was a straightforward split 2 FG (sitting TDs) and FF replacing the Lab sitting TD. However chatting to canvassers last night it seems that SF are polling at or around 14% so the last seat is a battle between them and FG which I must admit came as a surprise to me.
So many permutations but I'd expect FG's message to change from lets keep the recovery going to let's scare the shite of them/can you imagine what'll happen if we let these loopers take control etc
Am I a saddo for finding it all very exciting? As Declan says, the permutation are endless. Imagine a four seater where FG, FG, Labour, SF and some Independent are all running neck-and-neck. Okay, Labour is a bit of a stretch, but the transfers of a second FG candidate might bring them up to the 20% mark. Alternatively you can think of a second FG candidate lifted up by Labour transfers. That's five people who have a quota, but only four seats. That kind of scenario is going to be replicated up and down the country. I'll be getting the beers in for Saturday week!
I often think it's a pity we don't have a 'national' government, whereby ministers are appointed by the various parties on a pro-rata basis according to the seats won, or the percentage vote. At various times I like different things that different parties say, but there is no individual party that I would say represents my views.
I like Lucinda's loopers with their stance on serious crime. Mandatory sentences for repeat offenders. But would i vote for a Renua candidate? No, because of the other things on their list. But maybe Lucinda, or someone in her party would make a good justice minister.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 17, 2016, 09:18:20 AM
I often think it's a pity we don't have a 'national' government, whereby ministers are appointed by the various parties on a pro-rata basis according to the seats won, or the percentage vote. At various times I like different things that different parties say, but there is no individual party that I would say represents my views.
I like Lucinda's loopers with their stance on serious crime. Mandatory sentences for repeat offenders. But would i vote for a Renua candidate? No, because of the other things on their list. But maybe Lucinda, or someone in her party would make a good justice minister.
That's called the NI Executive AZ!! :D But it sort of works, except you end up with a permanent coalition of the usual suspects.
Quote from: deiseach on February 17, 2016, 09:14:48 AM
Am I a saddo for finding it all very exciting? As Declan says, the permutation are endless. Imagine a four seater where FG, FG, Labour, SF and some Independent are all running neck-and-neck. Okay, Labour is a bit of a stretch, but the transfers of a second FG candidate might bring them up to the 20% mark. Alternatively you can think of a second FG candidate lifted up by Labour transfers. That's five people who have a quota, but only four seats. That kind of scenario is going to be replicated up and down the country. I'll be getting the beers in for Saturday week!
It is very interesting. Especially the SF thing
I find it very interesting too. Not necessarily the different political outlooks, and certainly not excitement about who gets in, but very interesting in the races, how transfers will work etc. The fact that Labour have been supplanted as the left party, by their own decisions as well as by the emergence of Sinn Fein is interesting, especially as Sinn Fein are more like a traditional left leaning party, whereas Labour had been milk and watery for a good while. Then the hard left AAA type guys are definitely giving the whole thing a bit of a shake up. It is very interesting.
Another thing is the decrease in seats so some constituencies like cork SC, Tipp and Galway East are all down 1 .
I'm also completely engrossed in the whole process.
It's all a game and I find it intriguing to see the approaches of each party and how they manage the whole process and the debates.
Outside of FF, FG and Labour it's a lot easier as they have no previous record to defend. FG's initial approach was to repeat over and over "keep the recovery going" and it was too obvious. Clare Byrne called Noonan out on it on Prime Time early on. As someone above has said it is switching now to keep the crazies out or else.
The banking enquiry has helped FF's line that it wasn't all their fault and Martin's ability to debate has also helped. The thing is that there's a lot of old FF supporters out there that could be persuaded back.
FG should hold their heads in shame if they manage to donald duck this election up. Expect the full scare tactics/ "reds under the bed" type onslaught over the next week or so.
Heard a very interesting point been made over the weekend about the new jobs being created. Most are short term contract work, some month to month and very few permanent jobs. The guy was saying that FG are not really getting any kudos for this as the people with these jobs are still worried about losing them.
Keep saying it but FG strategists need to stop attacking SF and go for Martin and FF.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 17, 2016, 09:18:20 AM
I often think it's a pity we don't have a 'national' government, whereby ministers are appointed by the various parties on a pro-rata basis according to the seats won, or the percentage vote. At various times I like different things that different parties say, but there is no individual party that I would say represents my views.
I like Lucinda's loopers with their stance on serious crime. Mandatory sentences for repeat offenders. But would i vote for a Renua candidate? No, because of the other things on their list. But maybe Lucinda, or someone in her party would make a good justice minister.
As fair and balanced as this sounds, practically it is unworkable as there is effectively no opposition. Disaster
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
Quote from: seafoid on February 17, 2016, 10:15:48 AM
Another thing is the decrease in seats so some constituencies like cork SC, Tipp and Galway East are all down 1 .
And conversely, others have increased. Laois and Offaly are two three seaters now, whereas the old Laois-Offaly was a 5 seater.
Kerry South and Kerry North merging has also trimmed a seat, to a 5 seater, similar to Tipp. The geographical implications of this are very important. It's going to be very hard for a South Tipp candidate to hoover up North Tipp votes, so do the voters in the South all band together to pick the best local candidate, regardless of party almost?
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
Jaysus. If those figures come through, the only real option is FF/FG or FG/SF. FG/LAB would need too many independents, and they wouldn't be able to fish from their own gene pool.
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
Yep. A second election would be needed if those figures come in. Might be a change of leadership as well for one of the parties as well.
If labour do as poorly as projected I would say the klaxxon is doomed.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 17, 2016, 11:53:29 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 17, 2016, 10:15:48 AM
Another thing is the decrease in seats so some constituencies like cork SC, Tipp and Galway East are all down 1 .
And conversely, others have increased. Laois and Offaly are two three seaters now, whereas the old Laois-Offaly was a 5 seater.
Kerry South and Kerry North merging has also trimmed a seat, to a 5 seater, similar to Tipp. The geographical implications of this are very important. It's going to be very hard for a South Tipp candidate to hoover up North Tipp votes, so do the voters in the South all band together to pick the best local candidate, regardless of party almost?
The constituencies say a lot about population changes. Tipp, Kerry and Ros are losing population or growing more slowly . Leinster and Galway are increasing, for example
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
A FG&SF gov would generate more growth because it would build social housing and get more money into the economy. The Shinners are pragmatic at the end of the day. They have been made respectable and they have a very solid manifesto . FF need 2 more elections. Labour deserve their humiliation.
Quote from: seafoid on February 17, 2016, 01:10:32 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
A FG&SF gov would generate more growth because it would build social housing and get more money into the economy. The Shinners are pragmatic at the end of the day. They have been made respectable and they have a very solid manifesto . FF need 2 more elections. Labour deserve their humiliation.
I'd be very, very surprised if SF get anywhere near 30. However the prospect of SF in government shouldn't send people in the South apoplectic. As seafoid says SF have shown themselves, for the most part, to be very pragmatic in government in the North. In order to achieve the long term goal of a UI, paradoxically there needs to be a successful working N Ireland
and Rep of Ireland. It's not in SF's interests to be wreckers
The recovery story is not working maybe because most people do not see it.
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
So which one are you voting for?
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 17, 2016, 10:42:55 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
The secrecy of the ballot box shall remain sacrosanct ;D but won't be voting for Cake, Eugene or the Shinner childeen.
So which one are you voting for?
Quote from: AQMP on February 17, 2016, 01:28:44 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 17, 2016, 01:10:32 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2016, 11:11:18 AM
So are we now looking at (in round figures)
Blueshirts 50
Builders/Auctioneers 40
Slabs 30
Red roses 10
Hotch potch of lefttrightcentresensibleloony 28.
God help us all!!
A FG&SF gov would generate more growth because it would build social housing and get more money into the economy. The Shinners are pragmatic at the end of the day. They have been made respectable and they have a very solid manifesto . FF need 2 more elections. Labour deserve their humiliation.
I'd be very, very surprised if SF get anywhere near 30. However the prospect of SF in government shouldn't send people in the South apoplectic. As seafoid says SF have shown themselves, for the most part, to be very pragmatic in government in the North. In order to achieve the long term goal of a UI, paradoxically there needs to be a successful working N Ireland and Rep of Ireland. It's not in SF's interests to be wreckers
I think they could. They will have a fighting chance in the majority of constituencies. They are going to get an awful lot of working class votes
1 week to the moratorium. It's been a strangely quiet campaign, considering it's so short. Anyhow, if we are to take Paddy Powers at their word, the Dail will look like this
Carlow Kilkenny, a 5 seater, goes - 2 Fianna Fail, 2 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein
Cavan Monaghan, a 4 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Sinn Fein
Clare, a 4 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Independent
Cork East, a 4 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour
Cork North Central, they are finding a close call. A 4 seater, and they are calling - 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Fine Gael and the final seat at 10/11 for both, between Thomas Gould SF and Mick Barry AAA. Kathleen Lynch is at 6/4.
Cork North West, a 3 seater, goes - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail
Cork South Central is a 4 seater, and has some big names. They go - 2 Fine Gael, 2 Fianna Fail with Ciaran Lynch of Labour outside looking in at 5/1. He's seen as a lesser chance than Donnacha O'Laoghaire of SF (8/13)
Cork South West is a 3 seater, and they see - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail.
Up to Donegal, they see this 5 seater as - 2 Sinn Fein, 2 Fianna Fail and 1 Fine Gael
Onto the Dublin area, starting with 5 seater Dublin Bay North, and PP are giving seats to everyone here. - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Independent.
The 4 seater Dublin Bay South they see as - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Renua (Lucinda herself), 1 Labour and 1 Green (Eamonn Ryan)
Dublin Central, a 3 seater, they see as - 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Fine Gael and 1 Independent.
In the 5 seater Fingal constituency, they spread them out again - 1 United Left, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour and 1 Sinn Fein
Dublin Mid West, a 4 seater, they see as 2 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Fianna Fail.
Dublin North West, a 3 seater, they have as - 1 Social Democrat (Roisin Shortall), 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Fine Gael.
Dublin Rathdown is a 3 seater and they see it as - 1 Independent (Shane Ross) and 2 Fine Gael, with Alex White of Labour losing out.
Dublin South Central is a 4 seater and they go - 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Independent and 1 AAA/People Before PRofit
The 5 Seat Dublin South West they see as - 2 Sinn Fein, 1 AAA/PBP, 1 Fine Gael and 1 Fianna Fail
Dublin West is a 4 seater, and we could have a big name faller here. PPs are going - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 AAA/PBP. That would mean no Joan Burton, who is an 11/8 shot, with the next 'worst' being 1/7 on.
The last Dublin constituency is Dun Laoghaire, and they see the 3 seats going to 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail and 1 AAA/BPB in the personage of Richard Boyd Barrett.
Back out the country now to Galway East, a 3 seater - Another tight one for the last seat. They are calling 1 Fine Gael, 1 Independent and 4/6 both Colm Keaveney (FF) and Paul Connaughton (FG).
Galway West is a 5 seater and they see it as - 2 Independents, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail and 1 Sinn Fein.
Now down to Kerry, a 5 seater, where they see - 2 Independents (The Healy Rae Brothers!!), 2 FG and 1 Fianna Fail. This would mean a shock for long time Sinn Fein TD Martin Ferris. He is quoted at 2/5 mind you, so he's not exactly a huge outsider. It might come down to him v Brassil of FF (3/10) for the last seat.
They see the 4 seater Kildare North as - 1 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail, 1 Labour and 1 Social Democrat
Kildare South, a 3 seater, they see as - 1 Fine Gael, 1 FF, 1 Labour
Laois is a new constituency of 3 seats and they see - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Sinn Fein
Now the 4 seat Limerick City, and Jan O'Sullivan of Labour looks in a fight here as they go - 2 Fine Gael, 1 Fianna Fail and 1 Sinn Fein. O'Sullivan is 8/11 while the second FG seat is a 1/3 chance. Noonan and O'Dea are certs, and it looks like Quinlivan of Sinn Fein may do the damage.
Limerick County is a 3 seater, and they see - 1 FF, 1 Independent and 1 FG.
Now Longford Westmeath, where they see the 4 seats going to - 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 Lab.
In Louth, they see Gerry bring home 2 of the 5 seats for Sinn Fein - 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 Lab. Peter Fitzpatrick is the one they are picking to miss out.
In the Taoiseach's home constituency, Mayo, they see the 4 seats going to - 3 FG, 1 FF.
Meath East, a 3 seater, they see as - 1 FF, 2 FG.
Meath West, another 3 seater, they see as - 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG
Offaly is another new constituency, a 3 seater, which takes in a lot of north Tipp. They go - 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 Renua (John Leahy, a former GDO for the Offaly GAA)
Is Roscommon-Galway they see the 3 seats up for grabs as - 2 Inds and 1 FG, with Cake missing out.
Sligo Leitrim is a 4 seater, and they go - 1 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF.
Tipperary is a new 5 seater, combining North and South Tipp (minus the north that went to Offaly) and they see - 1 Independent, 2 FF, 1 Labour and 1 FG. That would see Alan Kelly keep his seat, and if Joan Burton loses hers, maybe the new Labour leader. It's far from certain here though.Mattie McGrath and Seamus Healy are both excluded on that basis, and they have serious chances.
Waterford is a 4 seater and they go - 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 Independent.
Wexford is a 5 seater, and they see it as - 1 Ind, 2 FG, 1 Lab and 1 FF
Finally Wicklow is another 5 seater, and they see - 1 SD, 2 FG, 1 SF, and the last seat between Billy Timmins of Renua (8/13) and Pat Casey of FF (also 8/13).
AZ, where did you get that information from?
Paddy Power
Did you not do the sums afterwards AZ??
I did. I meant to add that at the bottom. If we give .5 a seat where they are not able to separate them in the betting the Dail would look like this...
Fine Gael 60.5 (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36
Sinn Fein 23.5
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1
I think Mulherin might get caught for 3rd seat in Mayo for FG. Conway-Walsh (SF) will do well in North Mayo..
Kenny, Ring and Calleary(FF) are nailed on.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 18, 2016, 11:12:55 AM
I did. I meant to add that at the bottom. If we give .5 a seat where they are not able to separate them in the betting the Dail would look like this...
Fine Gael 60.5 (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36
Sinn Fein 23.5
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1
So FG/Lab require 10 from the hotchpotch to get back in.
Very few mercs/perks for Lab then.... Could they jump ship and head for the opposition benches?
Meath East could yet turn out to be 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF
The latest model run by @ElectionStatsIE, the amateur psephologist and statistician in me loves this sort of stuff. This guy fancies himself as the Irish Nate Silver.
Latest model run:
FG: 55
SF: 35
FF: 32
IND: 18
LAB: 7
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
GP: 1
Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 18, 2016, 12:13:03 PM
The latest model run by @ElectionStatsIE, the amateur psephologist and statistician in me loves this sort of stuff. This guy fancies himself as the Irish Nate Silver.
Latest model run:
FG: 55
SF: 35
FF: 32
IND: 18
LAB: 7
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
GP: 1
Well Nate didn't exactly get the British election right, and any projection that puts SF either a) on 35 seats, or b) ahead of FF, cannot be taken seriously. Mid-20's the max for SF, and FF between 35-40, unlikely to be more.
The 4/11 odds on Maura Hopkins winning a seat for FG in Ross/Galway are terrible.
FF would still have a big vote in Ross and every though Cake and Murphy are useless candidates they still have a chance between them to get 1 across the line.
The big thing will be if John Kelly Lab is eliminated before one of the FF candidates his transfers will go in massively favour of Hopkins as they both from the same town.
The surprise here could be the SF candidate. At 5/1 she has a chance where transfers and elimination sequence will be huge.
Just a hunch that this time out SF might be shading/ scrapping for alot of the last seats in the constituencies and getting more preference votes as the counts go on. FF will do well also.
Still scratching my head as to how FG haven't had this election sewn up weeks ago. Some of the party strategists might be feeling a chill wind post election if things don't go to plan. Maybe they were wallowing too much in the praise of the multinationals and EU overlords to realise that the vast majority of the people in the country are not seeing the "recovery", only reading about it in the papers. Blaming it all on previous FF govt might be ok for first year or so but not good enough imo 5 years later.
People in Dublin struggling to make ends meet even when they have a job, people down the country thinking the "recovery" is only happening in Dublin. Forking out E 1500/ 1600 a month in rent for a house/ apartment in Dublin.
Will hold on to their hard core 30% vote though. Can't see them winning anywhere near the 45% of seats they got in 2011 with 36% of the vote.
By my reckoning SF are running 50 candidates. To get 35 of them home would be . . . it seems unlikely.
Quote from: Canalman on February 18, 2016, 12:41:49 PM
Just a hunch that this time out SF might be shading/ scrapping for alot of the last seats in the constituencies and getting more preference votes as the counts go on. FF will do well also.
SF are not transfer friendly in many cases, people will transfer to FF in some cases to keep SF out.
S
Quotetill scratching my head as to how FG haven't had this election sewn up weeks ago. Some of the party strategists might be feeling a chill wind post election if things don't go to plan. Maybe they were wallowing too much in the praise of the multinationals and EU overlords to realise that the vast majority of the people in the country are not seeing the "recovery", only reading about it in the papers.
There is a recovery, but not even a recovery can fix everything overnight given the mess there was (which some people forget). But even people who see this also see FG engaging in auction politics and largely ignoring the Fiscal Council they themselves set up. New politics my arsé.
There will be some close counts in this, with a couple of constituencies have more sitting TDs than seats e.g. Dublin-Rathdown.
PP's odds for the make up of the next govt are interesting too:
FG/FF 11/10
FG/Lab 6/1
FG/Lab/SDs 10/1
FG majority 22/1
FG/SF 25/1
FF/SF 33/1
They seem fairly confident SF won't be in the next government
The Guardian's view:
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/feb/18/irelands-general-election-the-guardian-briefing
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
The shirts will be pleased with latest opinion polls. Labour and the Slabs won't be though.
Indies and Others might be hitting 28% but won't get that percentage of the seats ( around 44) while the Builders and Auctioneers will likely do better than opinion polls suggest.
Quote from: Owenmoresider on February 18, 2016, 12:22:39 PM
Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 18, 2016, 12:13:03 PM
The latest model run by @ElectionStatsIE, the amateur psephologist and statistician in me loves this sort of stuff. This guy fancies himself as the Irish Nate Silver.
Latest model run:
FG: 55
SF: 35
FF: 32
IND: 18
LAB: 7
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
GP: 1
Well Nate didn't exactly get the British election right, and any projection that puts SF either a) on 35 seats, or b) ahead of FF, cannot be taken seriously. Mid-20's the max for SF, and FF between 35-40, unlikely to be more.
Working class people are more numerous than core FF voters now
The problem with polls in Ireland is that we have proportional representation. Half of our candidates get elected on their own steam the others get elected on transfers. Polls usually look at a first past the post scenario.
Example
In Mayo there are 16 candidates. 6 are real candidates -
Fine Gael Enda Kenny, Michelle Mulherin, Michael Ring
Fianna Fáil Dara Calleary, Lisa Chambers
Sinn Féin Rose Conway-Walsh
Then there are 10 candidates spread all over the county. None with a any real chance.
Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit Tom Moran
Green Party Margaret Sheehan
Independents/ Others Gerry O'Boyle, Dr Jerry Cowley, Sean Forkin, Peter Jordan, Mohammad Kamal Uddin, Stephen Manning, George O'Malley
Renua Ireland Michael Farrington
Each of the 10 will take a percentage of the 1st preference vote depending on the location and ideals from the 6 real Candidates, but they are as good as number ones once elimination takes place. All these are doing is delaying the top 6 getting their real share of the vote and making the figures look askew.
Also looking at the top 6, If Kenny gets over the quota, there is a likelihood a lot of his transfers could go to the local FF candidate Chambers. Here again the figures are askew.
The reality is there are more and more independents running and their figures are distorting end figures. As in most cases Independents are not transfer friendly to each other.
To get a proper opinion poll would require a sample of people from every constituency to fill out a sample ballot paper and then do a count with quota etc.
Even then local factors would still make that questionable enough.
Any sense in Enda saying this about his own town people? http://www.thejournal.ie/enda-kenny-voters-whingers-hometown-2615710-Feb2016/
Quote from: Cunny Funt on February 21, 2016, 03:08:11 PM
Any sense in Enda saying this about his own town people? http://www.thejournal.ie/enda-kenny-voters-whingers-hometown-2615710-Feb2016/
Only for Kenny FG would piss this election. They need rid. They have him told to keep his mouth shut in the debates and just bark out 'JOBS' from time to time. He doesn't always listen. The accidental taoiseach.
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 05:08:29 PM
Quote from: Cunny Funt on February 21, 2016, 03:08:11 PM
Any sense in Enda saying this about his own town people? http://www.thejournal.ie/enda-kenny-voters-whingers-hometown-2615710-Feb2016/
Only for Kenny FG would piss this election. They need rid. They have him told to keep his mouth shut in the debates and just bark out 'JOBS' from time to time. He doesn't always listen. The accidental taoiseach.
Absolutely - they'd be looking at a being close to a majority if they had a strong leader. Thankfully they have enda who continues to highlight how bad they actually are.
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
+1.
The key comment in your statement is 'I know there are legitimate cases' I assume you mean the low paid or those who lost their jobs as a result of the recession, who form a pretty big proportion of the population but you are content to have them shafted just to ensure that the hangers on get hit.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
Holy God I can't believe what you've posted. So yo actually know people who choose to only work 3 days a week to avoid paying taxes?
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
I understand what you're saying, but there are people in low-paid jobs working more than 3 days per week.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 21, 2016, 09:58:19 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
I understand what you're saying, but there are people in low-paid jobs working more than 3 days per week.
The other problem is people like myself not lowly paid and not well paid but expected to pay my way. I've no bother with that. The problem is where do you draw the line. You can't be expecting well paid people to fund all the expenses of the less well off. There has to be a pulling your own weight ethic?
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
Water is shorthand for working class anger at being dumped on with a lot of the costs of the crash.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 10:07:33 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 21, 2016, 09:58:19 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
I understand what you're saying, but there are people in low-paid jobs working more than 3 days per week.
The other problem is people like myself not lowly paid and not well paid but expected to pay my way. I've no bother with that. The problem is where do you draw the line. You can't be expecting well paid people to fund all the expenses of the less well off. There has to be a pulling your own weight ethic?
You make it sound like the country is full of welfare cheats. What about the rich who refuse to pay their way? Would your ire not be better directed in that direction? At least we can be sure they can afford it.
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 11:18:19 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 10:07:33 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 21, 2016, 09:58:19 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
I understand what you're saying, but there are people in low-paid jobs working more than 3 days per week.
The other problem is people like myself not lowly paid and not well paid but expected to pay my way. I've no bother with that. The problem is where do you draw the line. You can't be expecting well paid people to fund all the expenses of the less well off. There has to be a pulling your own weight ethic?
You make it sound like the country is full of welfare cheats. What about the rich who refuse to pay their way? Would your ire not be better directed in that direction? At least we can be sure they can afford it.
No, this is about paying ones way. And yes the country is full of welfare cheats! Don't be so blind to think otherwise! I understand the better paid giving a little more for to run society and keep the mechanics of a country going. But should we expect the well paid to carry the can for other individuals who don't pay their way? Why?
FtB across the OECD the defining issue is income inequality.. Upper middle class and rich get pay rises and QE for their assets. Working class people have stagnating incomes. The problem is so big now that economic growth has basically stopped. Spreading the money around makes economic sense.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 11:28:07 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 11:18:19 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 10:07:33 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 21, 2016, 09:58:19 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 21, 2016, 09:31:17 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2016, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Nigel White on February 21, 2016, 06:46:06 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2016, 08:41:09 PM
From RTÉ Radio 1 yesterday (author not credited):
Give a man a fish and he will eat today.
Teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
Promise him someone else's fish and he'll vote Sinn Féin.
Wouldn't agree with that one. No point teaching him to fish without giving him the means to fish with. Seems SF are just trying to take a small amount of bait from those that have more than enough and give it to those who have none
You mean the people who pay for nothing? I know there are legitimate cases. But feck there are a fair few taking the mick! Country people have been paying for water since the emergence of schemes. Many had to set up their own system at great cost. Now if I'm paying for water and a lad up the road living in town is not paying then how many times am I paying? Cos if he's not paying, and he's not paying tax, then the money has to be got from somewhere? Even if he is working, I'm still paying for all of mine and a fair portion of his.
But is that not what society is supposed to be about? Thise who can afford more should pay more.
Really, So by this you are encouraging people not to earn? Because the less you earn the less you pay for? Yes? In this sort of world we'd all head for a three day week and leave to rest to the real earners to pay for what we can't afford. Does this happen? Yes?
I understand what you're saying, but there are people in low-paid jobs working more than 3 days per week.
The other problem is people like myself not lowly paid and not well paid but expected to pay my way. I've no bother with that. The problem is where do you draw the line. You can't be expecting well paid people to fund all the expenses of the less well off. There has to be a pulling your own weight ethic?
You make it sound like the country is full of welfare cheats. What about the rich who refuse to pay their way? Would your ire not be better directed in that direction? At least we can be sure they can afford it.
No, this is about paying ones way. And yes the country is full of welfare cheats! Don't be so blind to think otherwise! I understand the better paid giving a little more for to run society and keep the mechanics of a country going. But should we expect the well paid to carry the can for other individuals who don't pay their way? Why?
When you say the country is full of welfare cheats what kind of percentages are you talking about? I hear there are numbers you can ring to tip off the authorities. There is a reward too so it could be a good nixer for you if the numbers are as high as you suggest. You could buy new boots to keep on the throat of the down-trodden and a new cap to doff to the rich.
QuoteYou make it sound like the country is full of welfare cheats.
Mikehunt, I don't know where you originate from but I'm from a relatively small town in the West and it's overrun by not what you would call welfare cheats but people who know how to abuse the system. I'd safely say this is the same in other small towns.
As for the "no work" argument that you might come back with, a father was on the tele from Slane, I think, the other night who has 4 adult children and says there is no work to be got for them in Slane. That's purely a defeatist attitude, Slane is a 40min journey from loads of work.
I think a lot of anger from people is that it's now not as easy to abuse the system as it was before.
I note from this morning the Fine Gael mantra has changed to "lets keep the economic recovery going".
I actually think their mantra changed last week after that poll about people not feeling the recovery. Varadker was on Newstalk or RTE news, and he mentioned 'We need to bring the recovery into the home' or 'into everyone's home' at least 3 times. Then I heard another lad, maybe Coveney, saying the very same thing.
QuoteWhen you say the country is full of welfare cheats what kind of percentages are you talking about? I hear there are numbers you can ring to tip off the authorities.
It's not quiet the same argument but it's close, the 40 to 45% of people who still have not paid water charges are effectively scrounging money from the people who have paid. Yet these same people have no problem giving money to corporate entities for their monthly phone bills and to pay for sky sports and head on sun holidays once a year.
Quote from: highorlow on February 22, 2016, 09:59:52 AM
QuoteYou make it sound like the country is full of welfare cheats.
Mikehunt, I don't know where you originate from but I'm from a relatively small town in the West and it's overrun by not what you would call welfare cheats but people who know how to abuse the system. I'd safely say this is the same in other small towns.
As for the "no work" argument that you might come back with, a father was on the tele from Slane, I think, the other night who has 4 adult children and says there is no work to be got for them in Slane. That's purely a defeatist attitude, Slane is a 40min journey from loads of work.
I think a lot of anger from people is that it's now not as easy to abuse the system as it was before.
I note from this morning the Fine Gael mantra has changed to "lets keep the economic recovery going".
I'm curious as to why you think it's the poor you feel you are subsidising? You have U2, JP McManus and Dennis O Brien to name a few who are also "working the system". Denis O Brien for example was given a reduced rate on his loans. Ireland were borrowing at between 6% and 7% and were lending to O Brien at 1.5%. He was then given state contracts. Do you not think these amounts are more substantial than a few thousand working the welfare system? The collapse was the single biggest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.No wonder FG will get back in to power with the electorate we have. 82,000 jobs that are included in the numbers are slavebridge type jobs. Are these the ones 40 minutes outside Slane? If you are better off on the dole than working what would you do if you have a family to support?
QuoteI'm curious as to why you think it's the poor you feel you are subsidising?
I admire your curiosity.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/family-of-14-says-theyre-trapped-in-threebed-house-because-council-wouldnt-give-housing-to-adult-children-34471747.html
The cost of Social Protection is greater than the income tax take these days. VAT, Excise duty, the painfully low Corporation tax take and others have to pay for everything else.
I think all parties have their thinking on taxes arseways. The all want their grubby hands on it to reward their own personal voters. This is a legal form of corruption and they all engage in it.
Our tax system punishes success and hard work and reward idleness. This is patently crazy. The use of cliched terms like 'the most vulnerable', and 'progressive taxation', etc can't disguise the fact that the vast majority of our tax take is from income and thus punishes workers. The more successful and/or hard working you are, the more you are fleeced.
There is a class in society, though, whereby people are rewarded handsomely without doing any work. Unearned income, such as increases in property prices and inheritance is taboo territory for politicians and yet some select people can get very wealthy without having to do any work at all. Why do we allow there people to be rewarded so well?
For example, inheritance tax should be astronomical once it exceeds a certain threshold. The threshold should reflect say the cost of an average house. The same should apply to rising property prices. This is money made without doing any work and should be taxed to death. Part of the problem with the latter though is that it is now apparent most of our banks don't know how to make money from anything other than a rising property market (and thus benefit themselves from unearned income) and they leverage governments into doing everything they can to inflate the property market.
Rising property prices is a cost for everyone not on the gravy train, and a free lunch for those on it. We shouldn't reward such a system. Likewise inheritance is rewarding children or relatives of successful people, regardless of whether or not the recipient is of any value to society, or a hard worker, or successful themselves. For example, if one of our resident billionaires leaves all of his wealth to one person, why should our society tax hard working people in favour of the billionaire's anointed one?
I say all of the above as someone on the property gravy train and someone likely to get an inheritance. But I'd rather earn it than have it handed to me and I think our tax system should favour earned wealth over unearned wealth.
I know SF are proposing a wealth tax but they are way off to date with their proposal. They wanted a flat 5% on assets which would mean the State would own almost everything in 20 years. That is nothing like what I am talking about. As for FG they are proposing an increase in the inheritance tax threshold. That is also the complete opposite to what I am talking about.
Increase taxation on unearned wealth and accordingly lower taxation on earned wealth. No one is proposing anything like this so I have no idea who to vote for.
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Increase taxation on unearned wealth and accordingly lower taxation on earned wealth. No one is proposing anything like this so I have no idea who to vote for.
While I agree that there is too much focus on increasing income tax and penalising the better paid, are you not falling into the trap that the only good tax is the one someone else has to pay?
You are not about to receive a big inheritance so they'd be the lads to get ;)
Are wealth taxes not double taxation? You pay your tax when you earn money, and you pay it again to keep it?
Quote from: Hound on February 22, 2016, 01:59:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Increase taxation on unearned wealth and accordingly lower taxation on earned wealth. No one is proposing anything like this so I have no idea who to vote for.
While I agree that there is too much focus on increasing income tax and penalising the better paid, are you not falling into the trap that the only good tax is the one someone else has to pay?
You are not about to receive a big inheritance so they'd be the lads to get ;)
Are wealth taxes not double taxation? You pay your tax when you earn money, and you pay it again to keep it?
I thought I addressed your questions in the post.
"I say all of the above as someone on the property gravy train and someone likely to get an inheritance."
Wealth tax is double taxation. I am not proposing a SF style wealth tax. A wealth tax means you pay as you earn and then pay again for simply owning the money or whatever you put it into. I am proposing a large tax on inheritance, which I didn't earn, or ever pay tax on, and a large tax on property price increases, which is double taxation. I earned money to buy my house and will pay no tax on the amount I paid. I will however (under my portal) pay a lot of tax for any increase in the value of the house, which is money I didn't pay tax on, and income I didn't work for.
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
The cost of Social Protection is greater than the income tax take these days. VAT, Excise duty, the painfully low Corporation tax take and others have to pay for everything else.
I think all parties have their thinking on taxes arseways. The all want their grubby hands on it to reward their own personal voters. This is a legal form of corruption and they all engage in it.
Our tax system punishes success and hard work and reward idleness. This is patently crazy. The use of cliched terms like 'the most vulnerable', and 'progressive taxation', etc can't disguise the fact that the vast majority of our tax take is from income and thus punishes workers. The more successful and/or hard working you are, the more you are fleeced.
There is a class in society, though, whereby people are rewarded handsomely without doing any work. Unearned income, such as increases in property prices and inheritance is taboo territory for politicians and yet some select people can get very wealthy without having to do any work at all. Why do we allow there people to be rewarded so well?
For example, inheritance tax should be astronomical once it exceeds a certain threshold. The threshold should reflect say the cost of an average house. The same should apply to rising property prices. This is money made without doing any work and should be taxed to death. Part of the problem with the latter though is that it is now apparent most of our banks don't know how to make money from anything other than a rising property market (and thus benefit themselves from unearned income) and they leverage governments into doing everything they can to inflate the property market.
Rising property prices is a cost for everyone not on the gravy train, and a free lunch for those on it. We shouldn't reward such a system. Likewise inheritance is rewarding children or relatives of successful people, regardless of whether or not the recipient is of any value to society, or a hard worker, or successful themselves. For example, if one of our resident billionaires leaves all of his wealth to one person, why should our society tax hard working people in favour of the billionaire's anointed one?
I say all of the above as someone on the property gravy train and someone likely to get an inheritance. But I'd rather earn it than have it handed to me and I think our tax system should favour earned wealth over unearned wealth.
I know SF are proposing a wealth tax but they are way off to date with their proposal. They wanted a flat 5% on assets which would mean the State would own almost everything in 20 years. That is nothing like what I am talking about. As for FG they are proposing an increase in the inheritance tax threshold. That is also the complete opposite to what I am talking about.
Increase taxation on unearned wealth and accordingly lower taxation on earned wealth. No one is proposing anything like this so I have no idea who to vote for.
Muppet, could you explain in more detail how you think the government should make money on rising property prices? If I bought a house for 250k and paid the mortgage over 25 years and have lived in it, and aim to live in it until the day I die, how and why should I be taxed on it?
Whinge - Gate is on whineline now with Joe.
This looks like its turning in FG's favour, most of the public and callers are agreeing with EK.
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 22, 2016, 02:06:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
The cost of Social Protection is greater than the income tax take these days. VAT, Excise duty, the painfully low Corporation tax take and others have to pay for everything else.
I think all parties have their thinking on taxes arseways. The all want their grubby hands on it to reward their own personal voters. This is a legal form of corruption and they all engage in it.
Our tax system punishes success and hard work and reward idleness. This is patently crazy. The use of cliched terms like 'the most vulnerable', and 'progressive taxation', etc can't disguise the fact that the vast majority of our tax take is from income and thus punishes workers. The more successful and/or hard working you are, the more you are fleeced.
There is a class in society, though, whereby people are rewarded handsomely without doing any work. Unearned income, such as increases in property prices and inheritance is taboo territory for politicians and yet some select people can get very wealthy without having to do any work at all. Why do we allow there people to be rewarded so well?
For example, inheritance tax should be astronomical once it exceeds a certain threshold. The threshold should reflect say the cost of an average house. The same should apply to rising property prices. This is money made without doing any work and should be taxed to death. Part of the problem with the latter though is that it is now apparent most of our banks don't know how to make money from anything other than a rising property market (and thus benefit themselves from unearned income) and they leverage governments into doing everything they can to inflate the property market.
Rising property prices is a cost for everyone not on the gravy train, and a free lunch for those on it. We shouldn't reward such a system. Likewise inheritance is rewarding children or relatives of successful people, regardless of whether or not the recipient is of any value to society, or a hard worker, or successful themselves. For example, if one of our resident billionaires leaves all of his wealth to one person, why should our society tax hard working people in favour of the billionaire's anointed one?
I say all of the above as someone on the property gravy train and someone likely to get an inheritance. But I'd rather earn it than have it handed to me and I think our tax system should favour earned wealth over unearned wealth.
I know SF are proposing a wealth tax but they are way off to date with their proposal. They wanted a flat 5% on assets which would mean the State would own almost everything in 20 years. That is nothing like what I am talking about. As for FG they are proposing an increase in the inheritance tax threshold. That is also the complete opposite to what I am talking about.
Increase taxation on unearned wealth and accordingly lower taxation on earned wealth. No one is proposing anything like this so I have no idea who to vote for.
Muppet, could you explain in more detail how you think the government should make money on rising property prices? If I bought a house for 250k and paid the mortgage over 25 years and have lived in it, and aim to live in it until the day I die, how and why should I be taxed on it?
You would be taxed on the profit when you sold it. If you live in it until you die, you wouldn't pay tax on it, nor would your spouse, but after, or in the event of a sale, or transfer via inheritance, it would be taxed heavily.
I believe any gain in value should be taxed, in preference to income tax, because you worked for the latter and did nothing to profit from the former. In my opinion of course.
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 02:10:48 PM
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 22, 2016, 02:06:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
The cost of Social Protection is greater than the income tax take these days. VAT, Excise duty, the painfully low Corporation tax take and others have to pay for everything else.
I think all parties have their thinking on taxes arseways. The all want their grubby hands on it to reward their own personal voters. This is a legal form of corruption and they all engage in it.
Our tax system punishes success and hard work and reward idleness. This is patently crazy. The use of cliched terms like 'the most vulnerable', and 'progressive taxation', etc can't disguise the fact that the vast majority of our tax take is from income and thus punishes workers. The more successful and/or hard working you are, the more you are fleeced.
There is a class in society, though, whereby people are rewarded handsomely without doing any work. Unearned income, such as increases in property prices and inheritance is taboo territory for politicians and yet some select people can get very wealthy without having to do any work at all. Why do we allow there people to be rewarded so well?
For example, inheritance tax should be astronomical once it exceeds a certain threshold. The threshold should reflect say the cost of an average house. The same should apply to rising property prices. This is money made without doing any work and should be taxed to death. Part of the problem with the latter though is that it is now apparent most of our banks don't know how to make money from anything other than a rising property market (and thus benefit themselves from unearned income) and they leverage governments into doing everything they can to inflate the property market.
Rising property prices is a cost for everyone not on the gravy train, and a free lunch for those on it. We shouldn't reward such a system. Likewise inheritance is rewarding children or relatives of successful people, regardless of whether or not the recipient is of any value to society, or a hard worker, or successful themselves. For example, if one of our resident billionaires leaves all of his wealth to one person, why should our society tax hard working people in favour of the billionaire's anointed one?
I say all of the above as someone on the property gravy train and someone likely to get an inheritance. But I'd rather earn it than have it handed to me and I think our tax system should favour earned wealth over unearned wealth.
I know SF are proposing a wealth tax but they are way off to date with their proposal. They wanted a flat 5% on assets which would mean the State would own almost everything in 20 years. That is nothing like what I am talking about. As for FG they are proposing an increase in the inheritance tax threshold. That is also the complete opposite to what I am talking about.
Increase taxation on unearned wealth and accordingly lower taxation on earned wealth. No one is proposing anything like this so I have no idea who to vote for.
Muppet, could you explain in more detail how you think the government should make money on rising property prices? If I bought a house for 250k and paid the mortgage over 25 years and have lived in it, and aim to live in it until the day I die, how and why should I be taxed on it?
You would be taxed on the profit when you sold it. If you live in it until you die, you wouldn't pay tax on it, nor would your spouse, but after, or in the event of a sale, or transfer via inheritance, it would be taxed heavily.
I believe any gain in value should be taxed, in preference to income tax, because you worked for the latter and did nothing to profit from the former. In my opinion of course.
I agree 100% with you. It was just that you didn't mention the sale of the property in your initial post (I don't think). I thought you were going to impose a property tax much like the one we have now which is bullshit, in my opinion.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 22, 2016, 10:02:58 AM
I actually think their mantra changed last week after that poll about people not feeling the recovery. Varadker was on Newstalk or RTE news, and he mentioned 'We need to bring the recovery into the home' or 'into everyone's home' at least 3 times. Then I heard another lad, maybe Coveney, saying the very same thing.
they are al on message. IBEC supports FG which is al you need to know.
Stil thousands and thousands in negative equity, thousands with no wage increases, many many seeing how shoddy the health system is, hundreds of thousands of people un der 30 seeing their salaries slashed ..lots of economic losers out there with votes
QuoteStil thousands and thousands in negative equity, thousands with no wage increases, many many seeing how shoddy the health system is, hundreds of thousands of people un der 30 seeing their salaries slashed ..lots of economic losers out there with votes
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rising-house-prices-lift-45-000-out-of-negative-equity-1.1884332
http://www.thejournal.ie/minimum-wage/news/
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/jobs-minimum-wage-to-be-increased-to-9-15-from-january-1.2388570
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/irish-workers-are-likely-to-get-pay-rises-next-year-1.2472855
I agree with you to a certain extent on the health system (I've no personal experience with this apart from getting the young lad a free doctor visit lately), I'd imagine it has slightly improved from 6 years ago though.
Quote from: seafoid on February 22, 2016, 02:22:26 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 22, 2016, 10:02:58 AM
I actually think their mantra changed last week after that poll about people not feeling the recovery. Varadker was on Newstalk or RTE news, and he mentioned 'We need to bring the recovery into the home' or 'into everyone's home' at least 3 times. Then I heard another lad, maybe Coveney, saying the very same thing.
they are al on message. IBEC supports FG which is al you need to know.
Stil thousands and thousands in negative equity, thousands with no wage increases, many many seeing how shoddy the health system is, hundreds of thousands of people un der 30 seeing their salaries slashed ..lots of economic losers out there with votes
Thousands underemployed, thousands fearful of any form of demand for better pay/conditions ("be grateful you have a job"), thousands on zero hour contracts, thousands dependent on tips to top up their income . . . it's impossible to know if there was a strategy that the government could have deployed that would have let them cruise back in, but the blasé manner they approached the campaign, the flippant assumption that enough people have seen their situation improve to the point where the votes would be there, has definitely not worked.
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 02:10:48 PM
You would be taxed on the profit when you sold it. If you live in it until you die, you wouldn't pay tax on it, nor would your spouse, but after, or in the event of a sale, or transfer via inheritance, it would be taxed heavily.
I believe any gain in value should be taxed, in preference to income tax, because you worked for the latter and did nothing to profit from the former. In my opinion of course.
I don't think I'm in favour of increasing inheritance tax due to double taxation, i.e. your parents paid tax on earnings.
Perhaps a simpler soultion would be to remove the CGT principal private residence exemption, and have everyone pay 33% tax on profits they make on selling their house (or on a gift or inheritance).
Although you'd need to include some deferral if the child who received the house as an inhertiance was going to live in it - it would not be palatable to receive a family home and then have to sell it in order to pay the tax due on receiving it!
But I don't think there's a whole heap of logic in exempting gains on selling a home - though of course most sitting on a big gain would be dead against it!
Quote from: highorlow on February 22, 2016, 02:29:51 PM
QuoteStil thousands and thousands in negative equity, thousands with no wage increases, many many seeing how shoddy the health system is, hundreds of thousands of people un der 30 seeing their salaries slashed ..lots of economic losers out there with votes
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rising-house-prices-lift-45-000-out-of-negative-equity-1.1884332
http://www.thejournal.ie/minimum-wage/news/
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/jobs-minimum-wage-to-be-increased-to-9-15-from-january-1.2388570
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/irish-workers-are-likely-to-get-pay-rises-next-year-1.2472855
I agree with you to a certain extent on the health system (I've no personal experience with this apart from getting the young lad a free doctor visit lately), I'd imagine it has slightly improved from 6 years ago though.
Raising the minimum wage is not the answer and is a lazy approach to take. To help the less well off they need to reduce the cost of living. The only benefit I see is that it'll p!ss off those leeches in IBEC.
Quote from: deiseach on February 22, 2016, 02:33:52 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 22, 2016, 02:22:26 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 22, 2016, 10:02:58 AM
I actually think their mantra changed last week after that poll about people not feeling the recovery. Varadker was on Newstalk or RTE news, and he mentioned 'We need to bring the recovery into the home' or 'into everyone's home' at least 3 times. Then I heard another lad, maybe Coveney, saying the very same thing.
they are al on message. IBEC supports FG which is al you need to know.
Stil thousands and thousands in negative equity, thousands with no wage increases, many many seeing how shoddy the health system is, hundreds of thousands of people un der 30 seeing their salaries slashed ..lots of economic losers out there with votes
Thousands underemployed, thousands fearful of any form of demand for better pay/conditions ("be grateful you have a job"), thousands on zero hour contracts, thousands dependent on tips to top up their income . . . it's impossible to know if there was a strategy that the government could have deployed that would have let them cruise back in, but the blasé manner they approached the campaign, the flippant assumption that enough people have seen their situation improve to the point where the votes would be there, has definitely not worked.
Zero hour contracts should be abolished except for perhaps students
Quote from: Hound on February 22, 2016, 03:03:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 02:10:48 PM
You would be taxed on the profit when you sold it. If you live in it until you die, you wouldn't pay tax on it, nor would your spouse, but after, or in the event of a sale, or transfer via inheritance, it would be taxed heavily.
I believe any gain in value should be taxed, in preference to income tax, because you worked for the latter and did nothing to profit from the former. In my opinion of course.
I don't think I'm in favour of increasing inheritance tax due to double taxation, i.e. your parents paid tax on earnings.
Perhaps a simpler soultion would be to remove the CGT principal private residence exemption, and have everyone pay 33% tax on profits they make on selling their house (or on a gift or inheritance).
Although you'd need to include some deferral if the child who received the house as an inhertiance was going to live in it - it would not be palatable to receive a family home and then have to sell it in order to pay the tax due on receiving it!
But I don't think there's a whole heap of logic in exempting gains on selling a home - though of course most sitting on a big gain would be dead against it!
My parents paid tax on earnings for a house they purchased in the 1980s, at 1980s prices. I will presumably get a share of it priced sometime in the future. They won't pay tax twice and, under the current system, I won't pay tax at all. If we introduce, say, a 75% inheritance tax above a threshold of, again say, the cost of an average house, I will still pay very little unless the house is extremely valuable. I can understand your point about a child living in the house of the parents possibly having to sell it. Firstly, they will still pay nothing up to the value of the average house and secondly, if the house is worth way more than that, they should pay the tax. They didn't earn it and if they are still living at home all those years, and don't have the money to pay the tax, what have they been doing with their lives? I accept there will be the odd genuine welfare case, but in general I wouldn't have much sympathy from a tax pov.
But the real problem is with real wealth. People who own many properties will only pay CGT on price rises. I believe they should be crucified for profits made from rising property prices. Remember these people make rent as well. They also drive up property prices which excludes other from being able to get in to the market.
We have all seen the statistic whereby the combined wealth of something like the richest 63 people is equal to the combined wealth of the poorest half of the planet. I don't believe in simply taking the wealth off them, but we can't allow them to transfer the wealth to their offspring as we will end up with both the 63 number and the half of the planet number rising until something major gives.
Warren Buffet and Bill Gates have the right idea, in that they know if they leave all of their wealth to their kids it would destroy them. They expect their kids to be able to succeed themselves, so they are giving away most of the wealth before they die. Now those kids are hardly going to be poorly off, they will still have had the best education and doors open for them that won't open for others. Their head start in life should see them fine. But the current system of them being allowed to get all of the wealth with a relatively low inheritance tax is crazy.
Powerful stuff here from the Ballyhea man
https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4 (https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4)
Quote from: Declan on February 22, 2016, 04:14:00 PM
Powerful stuff here from the Ballyhea man
https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4 (https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4)
Powerful stuff alright.
Car Insurance up by 30% year on year
It will never affect the boys in ministerial cars, but the cost of living is a huge issue
added onto water charges
property taxes
college fees rising
USC
Quote from: Declan on February 22, 2016, 04:14:00 PM
Powerful stuff here from the Ballyhea man
https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4 (https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4)
I really hate stuff like that.
He lists every topic with a hint of scandal or cordite and blames the recent government for it. He provides no context for anything. 'Flood debacle' me arse. He doesn't put forward a single proposal other than 'real change'. He doesn't suggest what 'real change' might be other than, presumably, electing himself to join all the other 'real change' merchants, from FG & Labour in the last election, to SF, FF, PFP, Renua, Wallace, Daly etc 'really change' bullshit artists this time round.
It is desperately easy to knock everything, it is much harder, and of course more useful and honest, to propose something. But he doesn't bother with that.
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 04:59:25 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 22, 2016, 04:14:00 PM
Powerful stuff here from the Ballyhea man
https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4 (https://youtu.be/ONQ5HR3-oP4)
I really hate stuff like that.
He lists every topic with a hint of scandal or cordite and blames the recent government for it. He provides no context for anything. 'Flood debacle' me arse. He doesn't put forward a single proposal other than 'real change'. He doesn't suggest what 'real change' might be other than, presumably, electing himself to join all the other 'real change' merchants, from FG & Labour in the last election, to SF, FF, PFP, Renua, Wallace, Daly etc 'really change' bullshit artists this time round.
It is desperately easy to knock everything, it is much harder, and of course more useful and honest, to propose something. But he doesn't bother with that.
real change would mean taking on the lobbies in the health service, all the parasites who suck money out of the gravy train and the CS unions.
Because nothing changed post crash. There are so many things in the country that are shite. the legal system is a joke. the civil service don't look at best practice when deciding on policy. I started following it in 2009 and have hundreds of pages from jsut the Irish Times on where things are dysfunctional.
This is just a snippet
Medical apartheid surely more shocking than €100 tax The few dozen who crippled the country helped by political stooges have largely exited the stage in considerable comfort.
110617 . Brian Hayes rattled private sector interest groups when he signalled an intention in April to seek better
procurement terms from companies selling goods and services to the State.
Shane Ross in 2010 questioning Alan Dukes about the Anglo Board.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RbE4ZHIzvTY#
dead children in care
\ As one person at the heart of the arts world put it, the fear is that there is no strategic thinking of any sort being done by those who are in charge of culture in Government, something that would have
October 26th, 2011 at 9:27 am
Reflecting a little. This is the third time I recall serious (material damage) flooding along Dodder. Pretty stream in dry weather, but a monster after heavy rain. We know what will happen, just not the when.
• 111125Sir, – I couldn't help but be amused while looking at the CV of Kevin Cardiff to note that while assistant secretary (banking, finance, and international division) at the Department of Finance between 2000 and 2005 one of his achievments was "Managing a major programme of financial sector legislation". – Yours, etc,
RUARY MARTIN,
Clonard Court,
110526 There was some praise from the OECD for the Government's jobs initiative yesterday, with Mr Lenain describing efforts to regain control of the public finances as "remarkable".
However, he was critical of State training programmes, saying bluntly that the Government should stop spending money on training people for the construction sector
• Labour also promises to introduce cost-benefit analyses for "major capital projects
•
•
• 110117 The Society of Chartered Surveyors has been calling for the establishment of a public database to maintain and publish relevant details of all property transactions including sales, lettings and rent reviews along with details of all incentives and side agreements which would address the issues raised.
•
• 110118 Ireland already has one of the worst records in the developed world for access to education generally, coming third from bottom among 31 OECD countries in a recent German study. The Hunt report itself puts third-level participation from the top socio-economic group at almost four times that of the bottom group.
•
• Health services everywhere spend a great deal on medicines, but work hard to contain costs (there are many ways to do so). Here, public spending on pharmaceuticals rose from €565 million to €1,901 in the eight years to 2008. Health ministers did almost nothing to contain it. Big pharma is never slow to spot a sucker.
• How drugs are procured is mirrored in how the State purchases legal services. They are not subject to competitive tendering. This allows lawyers to dictate prices, at massive cost to taxpayers. Astonishingly, this is still the case despite the enormity of the crisis.
Inaction is also to be seen in the administration of justice. Tribunals have failed by every measure, yet they have been allowed to grind on and successive justice ministers have put forward no alternatives – such as the creation of the role of investigating magistrate, as exists in other jurisdictions
QuoteBrian Hayes rattled private sector interest groups when he signalled an intention in April to seek better
procurement terms from companies selling goods and services to the State.
This type of stuff should be a no-brainer, but we never seem to be able to get it done. We go through the same cycle of parties making promises for their own supporters, followed by the realisation that they can change nothing when they get in.
They take the electorate for mugs, and they are right every time.
I see anti water charge yokes at their thuggery again today.
Enda Kenny spoofing again on the news. He hasn't a breeze. Any question asked was answered with the same response. Jobs, economy, services. How a leader of a modern day country can have so little knowledge of the basics of economics is a poor but accurate reflection of the calibre of politicians in this country.
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2016, 07:43:32 PM
QuoteBrian Hayes rattled private sector interest groups when he signalled an intention in April to seek better
procurement terms from companies selling goods and services to the State.
This type of stuff should be a no-brainer, but we never seem to be able to get it done. We go through the same cycle of parties making promises for their own supporters, followed by the realisation that they can change nothing when they get in.
They take the electorate for mugs, and they are right every time.
It shouldn't be hard to standardise procurement terms, to do cost benefit analysis or to cut down on waste.
With Health they ignore problems and just throw more money at it. I reckon at least 20% or 2.8bn is waste.
That is around 700 PER HEAD in the country.
I like the idea of investigating magistrates. Someone like Eliot spitzer or that Garzon in Spain could go to town on the parasites.
Meanwhile this is what happens during our campaign while we have record number of families becoming homeless in January
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/battle-of-ballymahon-gardai-called-to-dispute-between-candidates-following-alleged-leaflet-theft-34476773.html (http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/battle-of-ballymahon-gardai-called-to-dispute-between-candidates-following-alleged-leaflet-theft-34476773.html)
Muppet - I've read O'Flynn's website and campaign literature and he does list his priorities with the promissory note deal being top of the list so I don't think he's just a whinger to quote our great leader.
Quote from: Declan on February 23, 2016, 07:43:25 AM
Meanwhile this is what happens during our campaign while we have record number of families becoming homeless in January
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/battle-of-ballymahon-gardai-called-to-dispute-between-candidates-following-alleged-leaflet-theft-34476773.html (http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/battle-of-ballymahon-gardai-called-to-dispute-between-candidates-following-alleged-leaflet-theft-34476773.html)
Muppet - I've read O'Flynn's website and campaign literature and he does list his priorities with the promissory note deal being top of the list so I don't think he's just a whinger to quote our great leader.
I hope all of the Ballymahon crowd get done for littering.
As for O'Flynn, there was a brief moment when I thought he was right. But that was a long time ago, before the Troika etc, and now a single-issue candidate has as much chance of overturning the Promissory Note deal as I have of winning the Champions League.
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
Quote from: Unlaoised on February 23, 2016, 09:48:58 AM
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
Grain of truth in that, but in fairness the global recession at the time was imo anyway the main factor. Don't think FF can be solely blamed for the economic carnage that engulfed the whole of the periphery of Europe and caused banks to collapse worldwide etc etc.
Sovereignizing the banking debt was and will imo anyway be FF's worst action.
Quote from: Unlaoised on February 23, 2016, 09:48:58 AM
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
+1.
That leaves no choice but FG/Lab and whoever else they can bring on board.
There is of course SF/AAAPBP/even Loonierleft/ anti water charge thugs and God knows what else.
Quote from: Canalman on February 23, 2016, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Unlaoised on February 23, 2016, 09:48:58 AM
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
Grain of truth in that, but in fairness the global recession at the time was imo anyway the main factor. Don't think FF can be solely blamed for the economic carnage that engulfed the whole of the periphery of Europe and caused banks to collapse worldwide etc etc.
Sovereignizing the banking debt was and will imo anyway be FF's worst action.
Every country faced Lehman but no country was as vulnerable as Ireland. FF had no plan B and drove the country into the humiliation of an IMF bailout.
In terms of ballsin' up an election..will this be the biggest ever? should have been a slam dunk for FG/LAB. 2 thoroughly unlikeable leaders can seriously damage you.
Kenny has to go on offensive tonight and he's likely to make an even bigger balls of it.
Quote from: Canalman on February 23, 2016, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Unlaoised on February 23, 2016, 09:48:58 AM
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
Grain of truth in that, but in fairness the global recession at the time was imo anyway the main factor. Don't think FF can be solely blamed for the economic carnage that engulfed the whole of the periphery of Europe and caused banks to collapse worldwide etc etc.
Sovereignizing the banking debt was and will imo anyway be FF's worst action.
But Ireland let the real estate bubble blow up more than any other country and FF were cheerleaders for the industry and the reckless development and borrowing - which is why banks in turn had to saved on the backs of the Irish people. Hard to fathom how quickly some forget.
Quote from: weareros on February 23, 2016, 12:43:29 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 23, 2016, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Unlaoised on February 23, 2016, 09:48:58 AM
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
Grain of truth in that, but in fairness the global recession at the time was imo anyway the main factor. Don't think FF can be solely blamed for the economic carnage that engulfed the whole of the periphery of Europe and caused banks to collapse worldwide etc etc.
Sovereignizing the banking debt was and will imo anyway be FF's worst action.
But Ireland let the real estate bubble blow up more than any other country and FF were cheerleaders for the industry and the reckless development and borrowing - which is why banks in turn had to saved on the backs of the Irish people. Hard to fathom how quickly some forget.
Does anyone seriously believe that if FG were in power they would have done anything different during the boom years?
Who's 'winning' the debate? ::)
Quote from: mikehunt on February 23, 2016, 01:09:44 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 23, 2016, 12:43:29 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 23, 2016, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Unlaoised on February 23, 2016, 09:48:58 AM
Scary thing is that while FG and Labour have done okay for a period after the mess they were left with,we can see the general public maybe getting tired of it now...
Change is good but going back to FF is a no go for me...
They destroyed this county for me and for all future generations that should never be forgotten. >:(
Grain of truth in that, but in fairness the global recession at the time was imo anyway the main factor. Don't think FF can be solely blamed for the economic carnage that engulfed the whole of the periphery of Europe and caused banks to collapse worldwide etc etc.
Sovereignizing the banking debt was and will imo anyway be FF's worst action.
But Ireland let the real estate bubble blow up more than any other country and FF were cheerleaders for the industry and the reckless development and borrowing - which is why banks in turn had to saved on the backs of the Irish people. Hard to fathom how quickly some forget.
Does anyone seriously believe that if FG were in power they would have done anything different during the boom years?
I think they would have had a better handle on the data so the FG fin min would have been less likely to have given a blanket guarantee . FF are hopeless on that sort of stuff.
Watching Kenny flap the McNulty question was akin to watching a seal trying to w**k. Rewound it three times it was so funny. ;D ;D ;D
God help us all but Micheal Martin and Joan Burton were the most impressive. Kenny is a disaster and Gerry is grand with generalities but he struggles on specifics. I dunno lads. Dustin for Taoiseach.
FG had a bad election run in. The recovery idea didn't work and now FF are nearly up to them. They must have been very poorly advised.
I thought Martin won it hands down.
Kenny - Ireland's Gordon Brown. Who taught him all the stiff-limbed gestures and weird facial tics and grimaces?
You have to think that if FG had any other of their cabinet members as leader they'd be coasting home.
Adams won that hands down.
Kenny exposed on cronyism. Adams nailed him on it.
Martin had a meltdown when Celia Larkin was mentioned and didn't know what to say - nailed on cronyism.
Thought Adams completely bossed it on the housing situation, pointing out the government's role in NAMA. Not only did Adams destroy the 3 other leaders, he utterly destroyed Miriam O'Callaghan on her salary and her fabrications.
Burton was probably the second best on the night as she didn't make as big an idiot of herself as previously.
You would have to be an absolute simpleton to think Martin came out of that at all well, he had the worst showing of all.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:07:40 AM
Adams won that hands down.
Kenny exposed on cronyism. Adams nailed him on it.
Martin had a meltdown when Celia Larkin was mentioned and didn't know what to say - nailed on cronyism.
Thought Adams completely bossed it on the housing situation, pointing out the government's role in NAMA. Not only did Adams destroy the 3 other leaders, he utterly destroyed Miriam O'Callaghan on her salary and her fabrications.
O'Callaghan asked a reasonable question as to whether an existing shortage of doctors would be aggravated by SF policies, Adams made a reasonable point about morale in the health service, but he was completely out of line asking O'Callaghan about her salary as this had nothing to do with the question.
It is a reasonable question to ask of SF to say that they will put money in the health service, but their doctrinaire bullshit will mean that to see a half competent doctor that you'll have to go private in any case.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 11, 2016, 11:41:56 PM
Gerry won hands down.
Took Martin to town when he was moralising about the O6.
What did Fianna Fail ever do for the O6? They stood by obsequiously while a foreign military raised hell on Irish soil in a sectarian statelet they were complicit in a situation they allowed fester. It's hard to listen to a guy talk about matters in the O6 when his party have no interest in them.
Fianna Fail were a party that introduced internment, so it's hardly surprising they are a bit warped on justice.
You're consistent anyway bomber ;D
Do undecided voters actually make up their minds based on these debates?? And do people generally vote for parties or candidates? It'd be interesting to know the proportion of people who vote 1) specifically for candidates; 2) for parties based on their policies; 3) for parties based on their leader or 4) blindly vote for parties.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:29:40 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:07:40 AM
Adams won that hands down.
Kenny exposed on cronyism. Adams nailed him on it.
Martin had a meltdown when Celia Larkin was mentioned and didn't know what to say - nailed on cronyism.
Thought Adams completely bossed it on the housing situation, pointing out the government's role in NAMA. Not only did Adams destroy the 3 other leaders, he utterly destroyed Miriam O'Callaghan on her salary and her fabrications.
O'Callaghan asked a reasonable question as to whether an existing shortage of doctors would be aggravated by SF policies, Adams made a reasonable point about morale in the health service, but he was completely out of line asking O'Callaghan about her salary as this had nothing to do with the question.
It is a reasonable question to ask of SF to say that they will put money in the health service, but their doctrinaire bullshit will mean that to see a half competent doctor that you'll have to go private in any case.
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
The question was not biased.
If she had asked about abortion would she have been asked if she had an abortion?
If she had asked about homelessness would she have been asked if she was homeless.?
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:44:46 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
The question was not biased.
If she had asked about abortion would she have been asked if she had an abortion?
If she had asked about homelessness would she have been asked if she was homeless.?
She's a state employee tasked with moderating a debate. She had a vested interest in her line of questioning which Adam's wanted disclosed. You have an issue with this, for a bizarre reason.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:55:38 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:44:46 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
The question was not biased.
If she had asked about abortion would she have been asked if she had an abortion?
If she had asked about homelessness would she have been asked if she was homeless.?
She's a state employee tasked with moderating a debate. She had a vested interest in her line of questioning which Adam's wanted disclosed. You have an issue with this, for a bizarre reason.
What was her vested interest? That her or one of her 40 children might end up in a public hospital with shite doctors because all the good ones had left the country because Sf thought they were too rich?
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 01:07:23 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:55:38 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:44:46 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
The question was not biased.
If she had asked about abortion would she have been asked if she had an abortion?
If she had asked about homelessness would she have been asked if she was homeless.?
She's a state employee tasked with moderating a debate. She had a vested interest in her line of questioning which Adam's wanted disclosed. You have an issue with this, for a bizarre reason.
What was her vested interest? That her or one of her 40 children might end up in a public hospital with shite doctors because all the good ones had left the country because Sf thought they were too rich?
That she is one of the high earners who would be impacted by these taxes. That's a smoking gun of a vested interest that hadn't been disclosed.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:44:46 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
The question was not biased.
If she had asked about abortion would she have been asked if she had an abortion?
If she had asked about homelessness would she have been asked if she was homeless.?
I am guessing by the lack of histrionics on here that she didn't ask him if he was ever a member of the IRA. No doubt that would be out of line.
Regardless, I didn't watch a single minute of any debate as I regard it as nothing more than popcorn for media junkies and party lackies and completely irrelevant to anything in the real world. In fact I am sick of all of the candidates promising crap that most of them will be unable to even seriously propose, never mind deliver on. Mandarins in Ireland, under instruction from the EU, run this country. We saw that very clearly with Patrick Honohan. Politicians are largely irrelevant now.
This bomber buck named himself well.
A total SF lickspittle.
Didn't watch the nonsense and I can't see many people changing their minds because someone was a good debater.
By the way Miriam is a SEMI State employee and isn't paid from Taxes - unless you call the TV Licence which part funds RTÉ a tax.
Adams was car crash again last night.
The muddle he got in over the SF healthcare policy.
The sidestepping over the additional "7c in the euro" for those over €100k - not calling it as it actually is, a tax rate of 59%
The "who is Senator Cahill" remark
but to top it all off he wraps up with some music hall with his references to the "three amigos"
Only for the blood still dripping off his hands I would find him amusing.....
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on February 24, 2016, 09:07:34 AM
Adams was car crash again last night.
The muddle he got in over the SF healthcare policy.
The sidestepping over the additional "7c in the euro" for those over €100k - not calling it as it actually is, a tax rate of 59%
The "who is Senator Cahill" remark
but to top it all off he wraps up with some music hall with his references to the "three amigos"
Only for the blood still dripping off his hands I would find him amusing.....
In fairness he did say...who is Sandra Cahill? I thought Kenny said Sandra at 1st too.
I did too. And I thought Gerry was trying to poke fun at Enda getting her name wrong.
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
It's bad when you watch party leaders explaining or defending their policies and you feel that could have answered better for them.
Gerry is atrocious. I literally couldn't watch at times although he grew into it. I thought Miriam handled them all well which was a pleasant surprise and I must say that RTE have done a great job across all their debates and coverage.
Gerry has no idea how they're going to recruit staff for the health staff but we can vote him out in five years if he doesn't. I don't mind that he asked Miriam what her wage was, even though it had absolutely nothing to do with how they were going to recruit health workers. Fair play to her for giving a straight answer. What I don't understand is why the other leaders pick on Gerry with regards to the north. It's the one issue he's completely at ease with and he particularly pulls FF up on their lack of interest in it, them being the republican party and all.
Enda was asked if it was fair that a couple on € 40k would save €2k in FG's economic proposals whereas the same couple on € 150k would save three times as much, i.e. €6k. He pressed play on the tape and rewound it every time Miriam repeated the question - "the point is that everyone will benefit". Surely he could have siad (and known) that the former saves 5% whilst the latter saves 4%. At worst it would have stopped her asking, at best it answers the bloody question.
Kenny was also badly stuck on the Nulty appointment which Adams used very well. Martin was also badly caught but had the benefit of it being much longer ago.
I think Martin is the best debater but by that he's just better at hiding his bullshit than Enda and Gerry.
Joan, in fairness to her, kept out of trouble except on the Begg issue where she rambled away until she was told to shut up.
Overall, entertaining enough, and let's be honest, that's what it's on for.
Hung dáil and we'll see if either of the two peacocks lower their feathers for the grand coalition.
Good stuff, Muppet. Even if the EZ didn't have its big arse in it the Permanent Gov of the Civil Service would be there to ensure no popular wish was met. Most voters would presumably vote for cost benefit analysis and such like but the PG knows better.
I watched a good bit of the debate last night and was instantly grateful that I'd missed the previous one. Adams is atrocious, I can't believe anything he says even if it is true. Enda is wooden and jingoistic I could really believe he'd be at all those gift grub escapades. Martin is better than the other two but he couldn't answer a straight question and faffed about on FF's getting the country into a mess in the first place. As for Joan well god help us every time she spoke I thought it was the Ian Dempsey breakfast show. All the leaders struggled with the hard questions. One thing that set Adams apart was the other three's opportunistic exploitation of the peace process and our troubles that showed no real understanding of the North or the northern nationalist experience. With the election of Forster as DUP leader political leadership on both sides of the border has descended to pathetic depths, where are the Bertie's, Garrett's, CJ's, Paisley's and Hume's of this generation? Miriam was out of order on Danny Morrison who's conviction was set aside, who was awarded compensation and is as Adam's said a private citizen.
http://www.oireachtas.ie/parliament/media/housesoftheoireachtas/Ireland-Parliamentary-Budget-Review-Preliminary-Draft.pdf
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 09:49:04 AM
Enda was asked if it was fair that a couple on € 40k would save €2k in FG's economic proposals whereas the same couple on € 150k would save three times as much, i.e. €6k. He pressed play on the tape and rewound it every time Miriam repeated the question - "the point is that everyone will benefit". Surely he could have siad (and known) that the former saves 5% whilst the latter saves 4%. At worst it would have stopped her asking, at best it answers the bloody question.
Its also ignored what income tax they are paying at the moment.
A couple on €40k contributes €6k in income taxes.
A couple on €150k contributes €62k in income taxes.
My idea of a good result for this election would be a hung dail, Enda to get removed from FG leadership, and for FG to lead the government with a new Taoiseach after a 2nd election.
Here's a fascinating reflection of how the campaign has gone. I posted Paddy Power's odds for Cork South Central four weeks ago today. Below is how they've changed:
Coveney (FG) - then 1/50, now 1/33
McGrath (FF) - then 1/10, now 1/33
Martin (FF) - then 1/5, now 1/80
Buttimer (FG) - then 1/4, now 2/1
Ó Laoghaire (SF) - then 4/7, now 1/7
Lynch (Lab) - then 10/3, now 7/1
Quote from: Hound on February 24, 2016, 10:36:02 AM
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 09:49:04 AM
Enda was asked if it was fair that a couple on € 40k would save €2k in FG's economic proposals whereas the same couple on € 150k would save three times as much, i.e. €6k. He pressed play on the tape and rewound it every time Miriam repeated the question - "the point is that everyone will benefit". Surely he could have siad (and known) that the former saves 5% whilst the latter saves 4%. At worst it would have stopped her asking, at best it answers the bloody question.
Its also ignored what income tax they are paying at the moment.
A couple on €40k contributes €6k in income taxes.
A couple on €150k contributes €62k in income taxes.
Exactly. Any half-witted TD would be briefed on this standard answer to that question.
Quote
My idea of a good result for this election would be a hung dail, Enda to get removed from FG leadership, and for FG to lead the government with a new Taoiseach after a 2nd election.
I had the FG canvassers at the door yesterday. (They introduced themselves as doing "a bit of a last-gasp panic canvas".) They put their predicament firmly down to Kenny and were just hoping he wouldn't put another foot in it last night. They felt that with any other leader they'd be home and hosed. Whether that's true or not, it's a snapshot of what at least some activists are thinking.
Was talking to a FGite Sunday night.
Not happy with Kenny and said he should have been set aside back in 2014.
Wonder will he be set aside after the Election even if they are back in Govt?
Serious question. If Varadker was leader of FG, would they have a serious shot at an overall majority? I think FF are picking up votes almost by default. Don't want to vote hard left, Kenny's a mess, Burton is just not at the races, so the chance of luring back old voters to FF is greater.
Quote from: Rossfan on February 24, 2016, 11:00:54 AM
Was talking to a FGite Sunday night.
Not happy with Kenny and said he should have been set aside back in 2014.
Wonder will he be set aside after the Election even if they are back in Govt?
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dIqFrcAiH_Y/TJfkIPsePXI/AAAAAAAAALo/58QZPykDTW8/s1600/two+towers.jpg)
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 24, 2016, 11:03:46 AM
Serious question. If Varadker was leader of FG, would they have a serious shot at an overall majority? I think FF are picking up votes almost by default. Don't want to vote hard left, Kenny's a mess, Burton is just not at the races, so the chance of luring back old voters to FF is greater.
Maybe but I doubt it. I think most of FF voters that jumped ship were going to go back once they had a decent set-up and Martin has provided that.
Enda will keep some voters away alright but probably not enough to gain a majority.
If Varadker had been in the leadership role and had dealt with the homelessness issue earlier then possibly, but I presume you mean in the future.
I meant now. As in if Varadker was Fine Gael leader right now, would they be a lot closer to an Overall Majority. If they get 60 seats with Kenny, would they get 75 or so with Varadker? Maybe only have to keep four or 5 independents sweet?
So lads and lassies - we still talking FG the biggest party, FF15 seats behind them with SF 15 behind that again.? (55-40-25??)
Labour - will they make 10? And the rest? Antichrists 5 or 6, Lucindas 2 or 3, SD 2 or 3
Quote from: Rossfan on February 24, 2016, 12:09:10 PM
So lads and lassies - we still talking FG the biggest party, FF15 seats behind them with SF 15 behind that again.? (55-40-25??)
Labour - will they make 10? And the rest? Antichrists 5 or 6, Lucindas 2 or 3, SD 2 or 3
Hard to see a Dáil being formulated with those numbers unless FF and FG get into bed together. That would be historic in itself. Of course it might be fitting that on the 100th anniversary the descendants of Dev and Michael Collins reunite!
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 08:25:29 AM
I am guessing by the lack of histrionics on here that she didn't ask him if he was ever a member of the IRA. No doubt that would be out of line.
She did, actually. Apparently he wasn't in the IRA.
QuoteRegardless, I didn't watch a single minute of any debate as I regard it as nothing more than popcorn for media junkies and party lackies and completely irrelevant to anything in the real world. In fact I am sick of all of the candidates promising crap that most of them will be unable to even seriously propose, never mind deliver on. Mandarins in Ireland, under instruction from the EU, run this country. We saw that very clearly with Patrick Honohan. Politicians are largely irrelevant now.
Muppet, you are too easy on politicians. Mandarins may set policies over the overall envelope of expenditure and this is not a bad thing given how things can go wrong. Politicians can still do much that they choose not to do. The organisation of the HSE, the planning for housing and so on are well within the remit of politicians and they need to get up of their collectives arses and sort these things.
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 09:20:03 AM
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016
Quote from: Mayo4Sam on February 24, 2016, 12:45:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 09:20:03 AM
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016
Poor leaders that don't connect well with the plain people of Ireland is a big part of the problem. Having left the biggest surplus ever, the Rainbow Coalition of 1994-97 should have got re-elected. That said, did we ever have a more boring Taoiseach than John Bruton. That said on that occasion as on this, it was the public punishing the smaller party Labour which was the main culprit, even though FG will lose a lot of seats too. Yet the 12.5 corp tax was the brainchild of Ruari Quinn and Labour in that Rainbow Coalition and despite it's criticisms has been one of the big drivers of our economy ever since. Don't think the socially progressive legislation like divorce and Gay Marriage would ever have been brought through in a FF gov, and indeed we can thank Labour in the 1980s coalition with FG for contraception. But the core vote of both parties was never enough to form a gov and FG are essentially on borrowed FF votes and many appear to be going back to FF again.
Was talking to a dyed-in-the-wool FF person today - he is genuinely astounded that FG are in trouble. He thinks Kenny has done a decent job, given what he was handed after the last election. He thinks a FG/FF coalition would be a disaster for both parties. He thinks there will be another election later in the year.
Quote from: Mayo4Sam on February 24, 2016, 12:45:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 09:20:03 AM
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016
Don't get my hopes up!
Quote from: Mayo4Sam on February 24, 2016, 12:45:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 09:20:03 AM
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016
The independents will be skint!
If there is a hung Dáil, and Labour are obliterated, will we have at least 2 new leaders in the Fine Gael and Labour parties for any new election?
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 24, 2016, 02:05:51 PM
If there is a hung Dáil, and Labour are obliterated, will we have at least 2 new leaders in the Fine Gael and Labour parties for any new election?
It's either a FG/FF coalition or if Inda fails to get majority - gets shafted by party. Leo gets elevated, becomes Teeshock in round 2.
Quote from: Hardy on February 24, 2016, 10:37:29 AM
Here's a fascinating reflection of how the campaign has gone. I posted Paddy Power's odds for Cork South Central four weeks ago today. Below is how they've changed:
Coveney (FG) - then 1/50, now 1/33
McGrath (FF) - then 1/10, now 1/33
Martin (FF) - then 1/5, now 1/80
Buttimer (FG) - then 1/4, now 2/1
Ó Laoghaire (SF) - then 4/7, now 1/7
Lynch (Lab) - then 10/3, now 7/1
That's pretty incredible alright.
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 01:49:47 PM
Was talking to a dyed-in-the-wool FF person today - he is genuinely astounded that FG are in trouble. He thinks Kenny has done a decent job, given what he was handed after the last election. He thinks a FG/FF coalition would be a disaster for both parties. He thinks there will be another election later in the year.
People forget quickly just what a mess there was or else they cod themselves that there was some easy way to sort this. In football terms FG did the hard work, scored some great points from hard angles, but have put the game in danger by dropping the ball unnecessarily and some pointless fouls.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 02:37:18 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 01:49:47 PM
Was talking to a dyed-in-the-wool FF person today - he is genuinely astounded that FG are in trouble. He thinks Kenny has done a decent job, given what he was handed after the last election. He thinks a FG/FF coalition would be a disaster for both parties. He thinks there will be another election later in the year.
People forget quickly just what a mess there was or else they cod themselves that there was some easy way to sort this. In football terms FG did the hard work, scored some great points from hard angles, but have put the game in danger by dropping the ball unnecessarily and some pointless fouls.
Yes FG did the hard work of burdening the working man in order to protect the wealth of influential individuals and increasing DOB's portfolio valuation.
Quote from: Mayo4Sam on February 24, 2016, 12:45:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 09:20:03 AM
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016
Is this because you think FG are great or alternative is rubbish. I watched some of the debate last night found it very boring to be honest. Where has charm and charisma gone to in Irish politics?
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 02:40:39 PM
Yes FG did the hard work of burdening the working man in order to protect the wealth of influential individuals and increasing DOB's portfolio valuation.
Horsecrap.
But since you are so insightful please tell us what they should have done differently.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 02:37:18 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 01:49:47 PM
Was talking to a dyed-in-the-wool FF person today - he is genuinely astounded that FG are in trouble. He thinks Kenny has done a decent job, given what he was handed after the last election. He thinks a FG/FF coalition would be a disaster for both parties. He thinks there will be another election later in the year.
People forget quickly just what a mess there was or else they cod themselves that there was some easy way to sort this. In football terms FG did the hard work, scored some great points from hard angles, but have put the game in danger by dropping the ball unnecessarily and some pointless fouls.
Absolute horsesh!t. You're like Kenny claiming any upturn in the economy is down to FG and any problems are down to legacy Fianna Fail issues. The economy is improving due to numerous external factors, price of oil, low interest rates and a weak euro to name three. The decrease in VAT for hospitality was one good idea introduced by the govt but for me there haven't been enough of those. If you're at the bottom there is only one way to go. FG had an open goal for the last 5 years and their disbelief that the electorate are fuming with them is their biggest problem. Like you, they just don't get it.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 02:49:25 PM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 02:40:39 PM
Yes FG did the hard work of burdening the working man in order to protect the wealth of influential individuals and increasing DOB's portfolio valuation.
Horsecrap.
But since you are so insightful please tell us what they should have done differently.
These clowns can only moan and of course whinge :D
His alternative would probably be to rob the Northern Bank or do like Syria did...........
Quote from: Rossfan on February 24, 2016, 03:41:15 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 02:49:25 PM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 02:40:39 PM
Yes FG did the hard work of burdening the working man in order to protect the wealth of influential individuals and increasing DOB's portfolio valuation.
Horsecrap.
But since you are so insightful please tell us what they should have done differently.
These clowns can only moan and of course whinge :D
His alternative would probably be to rob the Northern Bank or do like Syria did...........
Syria?
Quote from: Rossfan on February 24, 2016, 03:41:15 PM
or do like Syria did...........
To quote Ross himself - "IQ Challenged"
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 03:44:07 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 24, 2016, 03:41:15 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 02:49:25 PM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 02:40:39 PM
Yes FG did the hard work of burdening the working man in order to protect the wealth of influential individuals and increasing DOB's portfolio valuation.
Horsecrap.
But since you are so insightful please tell us what they should have done differently.
These clowns can only moan and of course whinge :D
His alternative would probably be to rob the Northern Bank or do like Syria did...........
Syria?
SYRIZA
stupid phone!!
I had a look through the Paddy Power odds a week after AZ had done the same exercise.
He came up with the following:
Fine Gael 60.5 (55.5) (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36 (38)
Sinn Fein 23.5 (26.5)
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5 (5.5)
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1 (0)
The odds have changed in a good few constituencies and my adjusted figures are in brackets beside AZ's original ones.
Quote from: foxcommander on February 24, 2016, 04:14:34 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 24, 2016, 03:41:15 PM
or do like Syria did...........
To quote Ross himself - "IQ Challenged"
typing anything except "+1, w**nkers the lot of them" is a challenge for poor ol Rossfan, go easy on him, it's those fat public sector fingers.
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 04:35:15 PM
I had a look through the Paddy Power odds a week after AZ had done the same exercise.
He came up with the following:
Fine Gael 60.5 (55.5) (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36 (38)
Sinn Fein 23.5 (26.5)
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5 (5.5)
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1 (0)
The odds have changed in a good few constituencies and my adjusted figures are in brackets beside AZ's original ones.
So basically FG losses picked up by SF and FF. Interesting.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 24, 2016, 05:02:00 PM
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 04:35:15 PM
I had a look through the Paddy Power odds a week after AZ had done the same exercise.
He came up with the following:
Fine Gael 60.5 (55.5) (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36 (38)
Sinn Fein 23.5 (26.5)
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5 (5.5)
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1 (0)
The odds have changed in a good few constituencies and my adjusted figures are in brackets beside AZ's original ones.
So basically FG losses picked up by SF and FF. Interesting.
It's the bookies though, so surely changing based on the money being placed? Otherwise how / why is the SF price going in the opposite direction to the polls?
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 24, 2016, 11:24:42 AM
I meant now. As in if Varadker was Fine Gael leader right now, would they be a lot closer to an Overall Majority. If they get 60 seats with Kenny, would they get 75 or so with Varadker? Maybe only have to keep four or 5 independents sweet?
Not a majority, but a good bit closer. Although I imagine he'd still opt for Labour rather than try and keep a handful of independents sweet.
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 24, 2016, 05:36:39 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 24, 2016, 05:02:00 PM
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 04:35:15 PM
I had a look through the Paddy Power odds a week after AZ had done the same exercise.
He came up with the following:
Fine Gael 60.5 (55.5) (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36 (38)
Sinn Fein 23.5 (26.5)
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5 (5.5)
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1 (0)
The odds have changed in a good few constituencies and my adjusted figures are in brackets beside AZ's original ones.
So basically FG losses picked up by SF and FF. Interesting.
It's the bookies though, so surely changing based on the money being placed? Otherwise how / why is the SF price going in the opposite direction to the polls?
Local polls are tipping them to have very good shouts in seats they weren't expected to have much of a chance in. I'd expect them to crack 30.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:23:50 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 08:25:29 AM
I am guessing by the lack of histrionics on here that she didn't ask him if he was ever a member of the IRA. No doubt that would be out of line.
She did, actually. Apparently he wasn't in the IRA.
QuoteRegardless, I didn't watch a single minute of any debate as I regard it as nothing more than popcorn for media junkies and party lackies and completely irrelevant to anything in the real world. In fact I am sick of all of the candidates promising crap that most of them will be unable to even seriously propose, never mind deliver on. Mandarins in Ireland, under instruction from the EU, run this country. We saw that very clearly with Patrick Honohan. Politicians are largely irrelevant now.
Muppet, you are too easy on politicians. Mandarins may set policies over the overall envelope of expenditure and this is not a bad thing given how things can go wrong. Politicians can still do much that they choose not to do. The organisation of the HSE, the planning for housing and so on are well within the remit of politicians and they need to get up of their collectives arses and sort these things.
One of the only times politicians stepped way out of the mandarin line (especially European mandarins), was the repeatedly elected FF/PD governments who ran an economy on stamp duty from a rising property market. The vastly inflated egos from being voted in, over and over again, was a major factor in this imho.
Re-electing this government risks sending the wrong message, again, and the inevitable hubris would set in. As for the HSE, that was Harney's (I think) solution to the underwhelming Regional Health Boards. But things got far worse with another layer of administrators to add to the financial black hole. SF are talking about throwing more money at this, which is the last thing it needs. The other parties are only paying lip series to the fiasco but in reality they are carefully steering well clear. Any solution must start by taking on the consultants, but this has never been done to any successful degree. As to why, I am open to explanations.
As for planning, the mandarins have way more influence than most people think. For example, do you know it is national planning policy NOT to provide sufficient parking at new houses in Dublin?
The thinking is we will all use the bus and that our kids will never be able to buy cars because there will be nowhere to park. The 9-5, Monday to Friday mandarins think we should all be able to live with the bus services provided and without cars. The reality is that bin lorries and ambulances can't get in or out of the crowded new estates due to the crazy under-resourcing of parking. And the kids can't afford to move out as they can't get mortgages adding to the car space pressure.
On the last issue alone, I would vote for any politician that promised to use every legislative tool available to him/her to undo this lunacy.
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:07:40 AM
Adams won that hands down.
Kenny exposed on cronyism. Adams nailed him on it.
Martin had a meltdown when Celia Larkin was mentioned and didn't know what to say - nailed on cronyism.
Thought Adams completely bossed it on the housing situation, pointing out the government's role in NAMA. Not only did Adams destroy the 3 other leaders, he utterly destroyed Miriam O'Callaghan on her salary and her fabrications.
Burton was probably the second best on the night as she didn't make as big an idiot of herself as previously.
You would have to be an absolute simpleton to think Martin came out of that at all well, he had the worst showing of all.
Did you watch the same debate? Are you trying to sway the rest of us or do you really believe Adams came out on top? It was clearly Martin, Burton and then Adams/Kenny in either order. Adams answer on the HSE was awful... random figures that made no sense. Pulling up O'Callaghan on her salary did him no favours - she answered him straight and it went nowhere, and made no point. O'Callaghan could really have pushed him harder on how he's recruit doctors when he'd be massively increasing their income tax, so it could have been worse.
Kenny had rehearsed a few lines and anything outside that was poorly handled - not being able to explain why his own income tax proposals are fair - when it should have been fairly simple - was a disaster.
Martin was exposed on cronyism, but in no way did he have a meltdown. In fairness he actually just held his hands up. Adams probably came off best on the cronyism point, but then he's the only one who hasn't been in government.
Talking of FF/PD/Builders/Auctioneers/Bankers Coalition - in Reeling in the years 2001- the other14 ( as it was) Finance Ministers in the E U wrote to the GGovernment expressing their concerns at the budgetary policies being followed.
McCreevy appeared then with the usual ignorant arrogant guffaws - "If Europe did the same as us Europe would be better off"
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 01:17:31 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 01:07:23 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:55:38 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 12:44:46 AM
Quote from: Il Bomber Destro on February 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM
Why was he out of line asking her about her salary? She's a state employee who is tasked with a job of moderating a debate so reasons for perceived bias should be disclosed. She was completely out of line in what she said about Danny Morrison though.
The question was not biased.
If she had asked about abortion would she have been asked if she had an abortion?
If she had asked about homelessness would she have been asked if she was homeless.?
She's a state employee tasked with moderating a debate. She had a vested interest in her line of questioning which Adam's wanted disclosed. You have an issue with this, for a bizarre reason.
What was her vested interest? That her or one of her 40 children might end up in a public hospital with shite doctors because all the good ones had left the country because Sf thought they were too rich?
That she is one of the high earners who would be impacted by these taxes. That's a smoking gun of a vested interest that hadn't been disclosed.
Everyone
knows she is a high earner - her RTE pay has been in the public domain. She's not pretending to be on the average industrial wage.
She's a citizen of the country, so she'll have an interest in any of the proposals. Should she not have challenged Kenny on his broken promise for free prescriptions, given that she would now have to pay for subscriptions?
Her question was directly relevant to attracting doctors to take up positions in Ireland, and the impact that tax rises would have on that. Questioning O'Callaghan was a diversion.
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 05:43:40 PM
Re-electing this government risks sending the wrong message, again, and the inevitable hubris would set in. As for the HSE, that was Harney's (I think) solution to the underwhelming Regional Health Boards. But things got far worse with another layer of administrators to add to the financial black hole. SF are talking about throwing more money at this, which is the last thing it needs. The other parties are only paying lip series to the fiasco but in reality they are carefully steering well clear. Any solution must start by taking on the consultants, but this has never been done to any successful degree. As to why, I am open to explanations.
If you want "take on" consultants, unions or the like then you need to be organised yourself. There are highly paid consulants in Irish hospitals who would operate on people but who do not do so because the patient isn't ready because of delays in tests, or becuase there is no theatre nurse or whatever. Private hospitals organise the hospital to make maximum use of the most expensive staff, public hospitals do not. Having ensured that these delays do not exist then you can pressure the consultants to do so more, but not before.
QuoteAs for planning, the mandarins have way more influence than most people think. For example, do you know it is national planning policy NOT to provide sufficient parking at new houses in Dublin?
The thinking is we will all use the bus and that our kids will never be able to buy cars because there will be nowhere to park. The 9-5, Monday to Friday mandarins think we should all be able to live with the bus services provided and without cars. The reality is that bin lorries and ambulances can't get in or out of the crowded new estates due to the crazy under-resourcing of parking. And the kids can't afford to move out as they can't get mortgages adding to the car space pressure.
These policies are under the control of the Minister, but like many things it comes about because of big picture planning issues.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 06:01:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 05:43:40 PM
Re-electing this government risks sending the wrong message, again, and the inevitable hubris would set in. As for the HSE, that was Harney's (I think) solution to the underwhelming Regional Health Boards. But things got far worse with another layer of administrators to add to the financial black hole. SF are talking about throwing more money at this, which is the last thing it needs. The other parties are only paying lip series to the fiasco but in reality they are carefully steering well clear. Any solution must start by taking on the consultants, but this has never been done to any successful degree. As to why, I am open to explanations.
If you want "take on" consultants, unions or the like then you need to be organised yourself. There are highly paid consulants in Irish hospitals who would operate on people but who do not do so because the patient isn't ready because of delays in tests, or becuase there is no theatre nurse or whatever. Private hospitals organise the hospital to make maximum use of the most expensive staff, public hospitals do not. Having ensured that these delays do not exist then you can pressure the consultants to do so more, but not before.
QuoteAs for planning, the mandarins have way more influence than most people think. For example, do you know it is national planning policy NOT to provide sufficient parking at new houses in Dublin?
The thinking is we will all use the bus and that our kids will never be able to buy cars because there will be nowhere to park. The 9-5, Monday to Friday mandarins think we should all be able to live with the bus services provided and without cars. The reality is that bin lorries and ambulances can't get in or out of the crowded new estates due to the crazy under-resourcing of parking. And the kids can't afford to move out as they can't get mortgages adding to the car space pressure.
These policies are under the control of the Minister, but like many things it comes about because of big picture planning issues.
We pay consultants as public employees, while they have their own private businesses and allow them to use public facilities for these businesses. That should end for a start. If they have time to run a private, competing business, then they are not full time employees and should not be paid as such. Imagine Michael O'Leary learning that full time Ryanair pilots had their own businesses, using his planes, in their spare time.
Added to that, the consultants run most of our health facilities, so blaming 'yourself' for not having theatre nurses, or delays in testing, while absolving the consultants, who by now in this conversation are having it everyway, is madness.
As for the 'big picture' planning issue. What the big picture is, is highly debatable. It might appear to come under the minister's remit, but it is the mandarins and the local councils and their planners who implement it. If they want people to use public transport more, Which I have no problem with, they might start by providing better public transport and not just for 9 -5 workers, rather than choking new estates with a lack of parking.
Quote from: Captain Obvious on February 24, 2016, 02:47:56 PM
Quote from: Mayo4Sam on February 24, 2016, 12:45:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 24, 2016, 09:20:03 AM
I don't think FG have ever been in back-to-back governments; you'd have thought that this should have been a shoo-in for them, as there's no realistic alternative. We could have another election before summer.
I think is almost a definite, I'd expect three in 2016
Is this because you think FG are great or alternative is rubbish. I watched some of the debate last night found it very boring to be honest. Where has charm and charisma gone to in Irish politics?
Because I don't think there'll be an overall majority coming anytime soon.
I think FG and Labour will form a minority government which can only last so long
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 06:14:53 PM
We pay consultants as public employees, while they have their own private businesses and allow them to use public facilities for these businesses. That should end for a start. If they have time to run a private, competing business, then they are not full time employees and should not be paid as such. Imagine Michael O'Leary learning that full time Ryanair pilots had their own businesses, using his planes, in their spare time.
Consultants have different contracts, and they presumably can do what the contract says they can do.
QuoteAdded to that, the consultants run most of our health facilities, so blaming 'yourself' for not having theatre nurses, or delays in testing, while absolving the consultants, who by now in this conversation are having it everyway, is madness.
I don't believe that consultants schedule staff in testing labs and the like, although I will stand corrected if someone with real information on the matter comes along.
QuoteAs for the 'big picture' planning issue. What the big picture is, is highly debatable. It might appear to come under the minister's remit, but it is the mandarins and the local councils and their planners who implement it. If they want people to use public transport more, Which I have no problem with, they might start by providing better public transport and not just for 9 -5 workers, rather than choking new estates with a lack of parking.
But this is exactly the problem, the people who set up buslanes or control parking have no role in running buses and nobody coordinates these things. Coordination policies need to come from government.
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 06:14:53 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 24, 2016, 06:01:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 05:43:40 PM
Re-electing this government risks sending the wrong message, again, and the inevitable hubris would set in. As for the HSE, that was Harney's (I think) solution to the underwhelming Regional Health Boards. But things got far worse with another layer of administrators to add to the financial black hole. SF are talking about throwing more money at this, which is the last thing it needs. The other parties are only paying lip series to the fiasco but in reality they are carefully steering well clear. Any solution must start by taking on the consultants, but this has never been done to any successful degree. As to why, I am open to explanations.
If you want "take on" consultants, unions or the like then you need to be organised yourself. There are highly paid consulants in Irish hospitals who would operate on people but who do not do so because the patient isn't ready because of delays in tests, or becuase there is no theatre nurse or whatever. Private hospitals organise the hospital to make maximum use of the most expensive staff, public hospitals do not. Having ensured that these delays do not exist then you can pressure the consultants to do so more, but not before.
QuoteAs for planning, the mandarins have way more influence than most people think. For example, do you know it is national planning policy NOT to provide sufficient parking at new houses in Dublin?
The thinking is we will all use the bus and that our kids will never be able to buy cars because there will be nowhere to park. The 9-5, Monday to Friday mandarins think we should all be able to live with the bus services provided and without cars. The reality is that bin lorries and ambulances can't get in or out of the crowded new estates due to the crazy under-resourcing of parking. And the kids can't afford to move out as they can't get mortgages adding to the car space pressure.
These policies are under the control of the Minister, but like many things it comes about because of big picture planning issues.
We pay consultants as public employees, while they have their own private businesses and allow them to use public facilities for these businesses. That should end for a start. If they have time to run a private, competing business, then they are not full time employees and should not be paid as such. Imagine Michael O'Leary learning that full time Ryanair pilots had their own businesses, using his planes, in their spare time.
Added to that, the consultants run most of our health facilities, so blaming 'yourself' for not having theatre nurses, or delays in testing, while absolving the consultants, who by now in this conversation are having it everyway, is madness.
As for the 'big picture' planning issue. What the big picture is, is highly debatable. It might appear to come under the minister's remit, but it is the mandarins and the local councils and their planners who implement it. If they want people to use public transport more, Which I have no problem with, they might start by providing better public transport and not just for 9 -5 workers, rather than choking new estates with a lack of parking.
Consultants don't run ANY of our health facilities, hospitals/clinics have mangers who run the service
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 24, 2016, 05:36:39 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 24, 2016, 05:02:00 PM
Quote from: Esmarelda on February 24, 2016, 04:35:15 PM
I had a look through the Paddy Power odds a week after AZ had done the same exercise.
He came up with the following:
Fine Gael 60.5 (55.5) (including Sean Barrett , the CC)
Fianna Fail 36 (38)
Sinn Fein 23.5 (26.5)
Independents 16
Labour 10
AAA/PAP 4.5 (5.5)
SD 3
Renua 2.5
ULA 1
Green 1 (0)
The odds have changed in a good few constituencies and my adjusted figures are in brackets beside AZ's original ones.
So basically FG losses picked up by SF and FF. Interesting.
It's the bookies though, so surely changing based on the money being placed? Otherwise how / why is the SF price going in the opposite direction to the polls?
Of course, but then money isn't usually placed without reason.
The first Google search I looked up came up with this list:
Board of directors[edit]
The members of the New Interim HSE Board, as of 17 February 2013, were:[1]
Dr. Ambrose McLoughlin, Chairman and Secretary General, Department of Health,
Mr. Tony O'Brien, Deputy CEO/Director General Designate, HSE
Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health
Mr. Paul Barron, Assistant Secretary, Primary Care & Eligibility Division, Department of Health
Ms. Bairbre NicAongusa, Assistant Secretary, Finance, Performance Evaluation, Information, EU International, Research & Resource Allocation Division, Dept of Health.
Dr. Aine Carroll, HSE National Director, Clinical Strategy & Programmes (replaced Dr. Barry White)
Dr. Philip Crowley, HSE National Director, Quality & Patient Safety
Ms. Laverne McGuinness, HSE National Director, Integrated Services – Performance & Financial Management
Mr. Jim Breslin, Secretary General of the Department of Children and Youth Affairs.
Ms. Frances Spillane, Assistant Secretary, National Human Resources and Professional Regulation Division,Department of Health
Ms. Geraldine Fitzpatrick, Assistant Secretary, Department of Health (replaced Mr. Brian Gilroy, former HSE National Director, Integrated Services – Reconfiguration)
I know the above has changed since 2013, but there are a lot of Doctors on that list.
And then I decided to try the Mater:
http://www.mater.ie/about-us/corporate-structure/executivecommittee/ (http://www.mater.ie/about-us/corporate-structure/executivecommittee/)
Here is the list of the Executive Management team:
Ms. Mary Day - CEO and Chair of Executive Management Committee
Ms. Caroline Pigott - Director of Finance
Prof. Conor O'Keane - Clinical Director
Prof. Tim Lynch - Deputy Chair, Medical Executive & Postgraduate Dean
Prof. Brendan Kinsley - Chair, Medical Executive
Mr. Conor Shields - Honorary Secretary, Medical Executive
Sr. Margherita Rock - Director of Mission Effectiveness
Ms. Mairead Curran - Interim Director of Nursing
Mr. Paul Burke - Director of HR
The first is an Adjunct Associate Professor of Nursing
The next is an accountant.
The four are CONSULTANTS
There rest are a Nun, a Nursing manager and a HR specialist.
There are more but there are no biographies on the site.
It is obviously bollix to state that consultants don't run any of our health facilities.
I persoanlly had reason to attend a meeting with one facility for malpractice and was faced by a consultant and a nurse manager.
Board of directors and executive management team - what exactly are their roles in running a hospital??
If your role is day to day management of a hospital, you're clearly no longer working as a consultant. If you're a consultant doctor working in management, you're no longer on a consultant contract
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 24, 2016, 07:31:40 PM
Board of directors and executive management team - what exactly are their roles in running a hospital??
If your role is day to day management of a hospital, you're clearly no longer working as a consultant. If you're a consultant doctor working in management, you're no longer on a consultant contract
Eh.....
As for the 2nd bit, do they wipe away the fact that they are consultants when they become managers?
Is it untrue to say that a Primary School Teacher is Taoiseach?
7 of the 18 members of the Mater Executive Management Committee are currently listed on the Mater website as 'Consultants'.
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 07:46:20 PM
7 of the 18 members of the Mater Executive Management Committee are currently listed on the Mater website as 'Consultants'.
Don't get your grief here, I'd be worried if the people running a hospital weren't doctors. If that board consisted of 4 plumbers and a brickie I'd be questioning it. Can you provide evidence that those boards members are running their own bit on the side.
Quote from: trileacman on February 24, 2016, 07:50:10 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2016, 07:46:20 PM
7 of the 18 members of the Mater Executive Management Committee are currently listed on the Mater website as 'Consultants'.
Don't get your grief here, I'd be worried if the people running a hospital weren't doctors. If that board consisted of 4 plumbers and a brickie I'd be questioning it. Can you provide evidence that those boards members are running their own bit on the side.
I never claimed that those particular consultants were running anything on the side.
However, a quick Google of the first Professor, who is listed as a Consultant, brings this up: http://www.specialistinfo.com/intl/ei/consget_ei.php?con=okeapath01 (http://www.specialistinfo.com/intl/ei/consget_ei.php?con=okeapath01)
I honestly don't know for sure if it means anything, but it lists his public and private practices as both being in Dublin 7 (presumably at the Mater). It says the directory was last updated yesterday, but I can't vouch for its reliability.
So are you saying that the Board of Directors and executive management team are responsible for the day to day running of the hospital?
Once they become mangers, yes, they are no longer employed as consultants. It's not untrue to say that the Taoiseach is qualified as a teacher but it is untrue to say that teachers run the country.
You seem to be saying that consultants are running hospitals inefficiently in order to benefit from the delays by working on the side?? Apart from this being a wild and presumably unfounded accusation, you'd have to be employed as a consultant to benefit from this and by definition couldn't be employed as hospital management.
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 24, 2016, 08:23:08 PM
So are you saying that the Board of Directors and executive management team are responsible for the day to day running of the hospital?
Once they become mangers, yes, they are no longer employed as consultants. It's not untrue to say that the Taoiseach is qualified as a teacher but it is untrue to say that teachers run the country.
You seem to be saying that consultants are running hospitals inefficiently in order to benefit from the delays by working on the side?? Apart from this being a wild and presumably unfounded accusation, you'd have to be employed as a consultant to benefit from this and by definition couldn't be employed as hospital management.
WTF!
Where did I say that?
As for an Executive Management team running a hospital day to day, what do you think an Executive Management team does? Seriously??
The Board of Directors is a different matter, but yet they still have overall responsibility for the way a hospital is run. The Executive Management is accountable to the Board.
Are you seriously trying to argue that neither of these committees are in any way connected to the running of a hospital?
Muppet, you talked about "taking on the consultants" since they "run the hospitals" and can't be absolved of operational problems such as "not enough theatre nurses or delays on tests".
To put it very simply, the people who are employed as consultants in our hospitals are not responsible for these types of problems. These are the responsibility of operational management.
Honestly, you haven't a clue about the problems in the health system if you think "taking on the consultants" is the first thing that needs to be done.
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 24, 2016, 11:29:34 PM
Muppet, you talked about "taking on the consultants" since they "run the hospitals" and can't be absolved of operational problems such as "not enough theatre nurses or delays on tests".
To put it very simply, the people who are employed as consultants in our hospitals are not responsible for these types of problems. These are the responsibility of operational management.
Honestly, you haven't a clue about the problems in the health system if you think "taking on the consultants" is the first thing that needs to be done.
the consultants have a lot of power and are one vested interest group. Dysfunction in the HSE is shared around and is not the sole province of the Executive. There are all sorts of power plays in operation.
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 24, 2016, 11:29:34 PM
Muppet, you talked about "taking on the consultants" since they "run the hospitals" and can't be absolved of operational problems such as "not enough theatre nurses or delays on tests".
To put it very simply, the people who are employed as consultants in our hospitals are not responsible for these types of problems. These are the responsibility of operational management.
Honestly, you haven't a clue about the problems in the health system if you think "taking on the consultants" is the first thing that needs to be done.
Despite your paraphrasing of my comments from a number of posts, they still actually hold up well enough. The best you can come up with is 'you haven't a clue'. No real argument, no link to anything?
I have proven that operational management include consultants. Despite you firstly denying this (and no acknowledgement since that you were wrong) and then trying to twist your way out of it. Operational management include consultants. Active consultants using the Mater site as an example. That is a fact.
You claimed that consultants couldn't be blamed for day to day inadequacies in the health service, and you blamed the operational management. Fine. I would sack the Operational Management as you call them, or the Executive Management team as they are actually called, in its entirety, consultants and all. That would be a great start.
Finally, you never tackled the truly bizarre issue of our paying some consultants over €150,000 a year for working part time, while they use our public facilities for their private practices. For me, this is the very first thing I would tackle in our health service.
How on earth can it be remotely efficient to use, for an example, a publicly funded hospital's MRI for a private business?
Finally, we haven't mentioned the IMO. The consultants have a union, along with other doctors, they sit on management and they have their own private businesses. As I said above, they want to have it every way.
Here is the Chair of their Consultant Committee: http://www.imo.ie/news-media/news-press-releases/2016/chair-of-the-consultant-c/index.xml (http://www.imo.ie/news-media/news-press-releases/2016/chair-of-the-consultant-c/index.xml)
His faux lip service to Irish Doctors emigrating ignores the closed shop and the apparent nepotism of his industry. Many doctors emigrate simply because they are not son of doctors and don't seem to be able become GPs or other desirable positions, unlike the those of the correct pedigree. It appears to be a closed shop, with a strong union, backed by its members on the other side of the public service table in management, some of whom incredibly are also in private business.
And all of the above is without mentioning the darwinian practice of Junior Doctors' rosters. All endorsed by their own union. And their consultants. And their hospital management, including consultants.
So yes, I personally would start with the consultants. Clue or no clue.
"executive management" and "operational management" - do you understand the difference between the two??
I never "tackled" your point re consultants working both privately and publicly because I don't disagree with you on it.
The only bookie to have gone bankrupt gives his opinion
It was a short, sharp, three-week blitzkrieg campaign. I have looked at it constituency by constituency, as you will see below. From my analysis, the gamechanger will be the decimation of Labour Party - denoting a shift to the hard left from a moderate social democracy. The outcome will probably also result in a new Labour leader, more than likely Ged Nash.
It will also produce the worst conceivable Fine Gael performance, given their prior expectations of 60 seats and upwards. Remember, they held 76 seats in 2011.
This will inevitability prompt a change of government, given that the Fine Gael/Labour Coalition will not be able to span the gap of the more than 20 TDs required for a working Dáil majority.
You will also see a significant recovery right across the country for Fianna Fáil, giving a clear endorsement to Micheal Martin's leadership. The rejuvenation of Fianna Fáil will bolster a determination not to prop up Fine Gael in a grand coalition, or to play the role of the minor party in office.
At this remove, it is impossible to imagine a special delegate ard fheis to endorse an Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil programme. Arguments based on a "parity of esteem" could reopen the discussion about a rotating Taoiseach.
When the Dáil resumes on March 10 there's going to be no agreement on forming a government at all.Be prepared for a period with an interim incumbent caretaker administration until Easter and beyond.
One might also expect recriminations within Fine Gael to start a leadership crisis for Enda Kenny. This time, his survival prospects will be far from certain.He will be blamed personally for the poor outcome, along with Michael Noonan for the wrong calls on 'Fiscal Space' and the great USC giveaway.But all four party leaders could well face threats to their leadership over the next year.
The country and Ireland Inc will get on just fine with the permanent government (civil service) helping a lame-duck administration. There'll be endless posturing, uncertainty, false speculation, jockeying for position - and enough hot air to worry climate change scientists.
Then another, November election may ensue. Exciting times for our democracy.
Here's my best calculation of the likely outcome for Friday's poll:
Carlow/Kilkenny: John McGuinness (FF); John Paul Phelan (FG); Kathleen Funchion (SF); Bobby Aylward (FF); Pat Deering (FG).
Cavan/Monaghan: Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF); Heather Humphreys (FG); Brendan Smith (FF); Kathryn Reilly (SF).
Clare: Timmy Dooley (FF); Pat Breen (FG); Dr Michael Harty (Ind); Joe Carey (FG).
Cork East: David Stanton (FG); Kevin O'Keeffe (FF); Pat Buckley (SF); Tom Barry (FG).
Cork North Central: Billy Kelleher (FF); Jonathan O'Brien (SF); Dara Murphy (FG); Mick Barry (AAA).
Cork North West: Michael Creed (FG); Michael Moynihan (FF); John Paul O'Shea (Ind).
Cork South Central: Michael McGrath (FF); Simon Coveney (FG); Micheál Martin (FF); Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (SF).
Cork South West: Jim Daly (FG); Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony (FF); Noel Harrington (FG).
Donegal: Pearse Doherty (SF); Pat the Cope Gallagher (FF); Joe McHugh (FG); Charlie McConalogue (FF); Pádraic Mac Lochlainn (SF).
Dublin Bay North: Richard Bruton (FG); Finian McGrath (Ind); Sean Haughey (FF); Denise Mitchell (SF); Tommy Broughan (Ind).
Dublin Bay South: Eoghan Murphy (FG); Chris Andrews (SF); Lucinda Creighton (Renua); Eamon Ryan (Green Party).
Dublin Central: Mary Lou McDonald (SF); Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind); Paschal Donohoe (FG).
Dublin Fingal: Clare Daly (Ind); Darragh O'Brien (FF); James Reilly (FG); Louise O'Reilly (SF); Brendan Ryan (Labour).
Dublin Mid-West: Eoin Ó'Broin (SF); Frances Fitzgerald (FG); John Curran (FF); Gino Kenny (AAA/PBP).
Dublin North West: Dessie Ellis (SF); Róisín Shorthall (Social Democrats); Noel Rock (FG).
Dublin Rathdown: Shane Ross (Ind); Alan Shatter (FG); Catherine Martin (Green Party).
Dublin South Central: Aengus Ó Snodaigh (SF); Joan Collins (Ind); Bríd Smith (AAA/PBP); Catherine Byrne (FG).
Dublin South West: Paul Murphy (AAA/PBP); Seán Crowe (SF); Colm Brophy (FG); John Lahart (FF); Sarah Holland (SF).
Dublin West: Leo Varadkar (FG); Paul Donnelly (SF); Jack Chambers (FF); Ruth Coppinger (AAA/PBP).
Dun Laoghaire: Sean Barrett (FG); Richard Boyd Barrett (AAA/PBP); Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG); Mary Hanafin (FF).
Galway East: Sean Canney (Ind); Paul Connaughton (FG); Anne Rabbitte (FF).
Galway West: Éamon Ó Cuiv (FF); Seán Kyne (FG); Noel Grealish (Ind); Catherine Connolly (Ind); Trevor Ó Clochartaigh (SF).
Kerry: Michael Healy-Rae (Ind); Jimmy Deenihan (FG); Brendan Griffin (FG); John Brassil (FF); Martin Ferris (SF).
Kildare North: Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats); Bernard Durkan (FG); James Lawless (FF); Emmet Stagg (Labour).
Kildare South: Martin Heydon (FG); Seán Ó Fearghail (FF); Mark Wall (Labour).
Laois: Sean Fleming (FF); Charlie Flanagan (FG); Brian Stanley (SF).
Limerick City: Michael Noonan (FG); Willie O'Dea (FF); Maurice Quinlivan (SF); Kieran O'Donnell (FG).
Limerick County: Niall Collins (FF); Patrick O'Donovan (FG); Emmet O'Brien (Ind).
Longford/Westmeath: Robert Troy (FF); James Bannon (FG); Willie Penrose (Labour); Kevin Boxer Moran (Ind).
Louth: Gerry Adams (SF); Fergus O'Dowd (FG); Declan Breathnach (FF); Imelda Munster (SF); Ged Nash (Labour).
Mayo: Michael Ring (FG); Enda Kenny (FG); Dara Calleary (FF); Lisa Chambers (FF).
Meath East: Thomas Byrne (FF); Helen McEntee (FG); Darren O'Rourke (SF).
Meath West: Damian English (FG); Peadar Tóibín (SF); Shane Cassells (FF).
Offaly: Barry Cowen (FF); Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (FG); Eddie Fitzpatrick (FF).
Roscommon/Galway: Michael Fitzmaurice (Ind); Denis Naughten (Ind); Maura Hopkins (FG).
Sligo/Leitrim: Martin Kenny (SF); Tony McLoughlin (FG); Marc MacSharry (FF); John Perry (FG).
Tipperary: Michael Lowry (Ind); Seamus Healy (Ind); Tom Hayes (FG); Michael Smith (FF); Alan Kelly (Labour).
Waterford: John Deasy (FG); David Cullinane (SF); John Halligan (Ind); Paudie Coffey (FG).
Wexford: Mick Wallace (Ind); Paul Kehoe (FG); Brendan Howlin (Labour); Malcolm Byrne (FF); James Browne (FF).
Wicklow: Stephen Donnelly (Social Democrats); Simon Harris (FG); John Brady (SF); Andrew Doyle (FG); Pat Casey (FF).
This forecast tally means: Fine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7; AAA/PBP on 6; Social Democrats on 3; Renua on 1; and Independents on 22 seats.
While it's impossible to predict with complete accuracy given vagaries of our PR system, I'm certain this outcome is likely to be more right than wrong. Momentum in the last week of the campaign has been significant, predominantly moving away from the Government parties.
Thanks Declan
Very interesting.
FG SF plus SD might work
Interesting. If he's right, the Labour Parlimentary party will be :
Dublin Fingal: Brendan Ryan (Labour).
Kildare North: Emmet Stagg (Labour).
Kildare South: Mark Wall (Labour).
Longford/Westmeath: Willie Penrose (Labour)
Louth: Ged Nash (Labour).
Tipperary: Alan Kelly (Labour).
Wexford: Brendan Howlin (Labour)
Who will be their next leader? Ged Nash? Surely Alan Kelly would be in with a shout, and that could be catastrophic for them. Would Howlin step back into the forefront?
QuoteDublin Rathdown: Shane Ross (Ind); Alan Shatter (FG); Catherine Martin (Green Party).
A Green here would rather a turn up for the books.
Labour are no doubt hosed, but FF, sitting TD Matthews and FG are all after that seat.
This is like the Eurovision the counting of the votes is the best thing .
The lead in is boring .
Quote from: ashman on February 25, 2016, 11:01:25 AM
This is like the Eurovision the counting of the votes is the best thing .
The lead in is boring .
ashman: douze points.
Would Alan Kelly survive a Labour blowout? I'm sceptical. Some people, Willie Penrose being the best example, can buck the national trend. I'm not sure Kelly would in such a competitive constituency.
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 11:09:53 AM
Would Alan Kelly survive a Labour blowout? I'm sceptical. Some people, Willie Penrose being the best example, can buck the national trend. I'm not sure Kelly would in such a competitive constituency.
Tipperary loves electing politicians whose only purpose is to annoy the rest of the country!
Alan Kelly might seem arrogant and obnoxious to everyone else, but in a Tipperary context he'd be bordering on humble.
Thus spake a Limerick man :) (If I remember correctly).
To be honest, Kelly is a senior government minister and should be a lock, especially given his piggybacking of the new jobs in Silvermines and Nenagh. However his obnoxiousness in the way he carried himself recently is putting his seat in doubt. If he does survive, I hope he'd learn from it.
Point taken on Michael Lowry though!
Quote from: Ash Smoker on February 25, 2016, 11:16:03 AM
Tipperary loves electing politicians whose only purpose is to annoy the rest of the country!
Alan Kelly might seem arrogant and obnoxious to everyone else, but in a Tipperary context he'd be bordering on humble.
Aye, but he was seen as vulnerable at the start of the campaign and things have not gotten better for Labour as it has progressed. I see Paddy Power have Kelly as fourth in Tipp so there might be something in what Ivan says. On the flip side he has Paudie Coffey hanging on in Waterford despite the money deserting him over the last three weeks.
Edit: in fairness, he hasn't plucked his Waterford prediction out of thin air. He thinks (http://www.newstalk.com/election2016/Yates-Prediction:-Labours-Ciara-Conway-will-lose-her-seat-in-Waterford) "the fact that [Butler] has never stood for election before" will be crucial.
Good analysis Declan, but I can't see the Greens getting the 2 seats you've predicted with Eamonn Ryan and Catherine Martin ..
If the bookies are correct, these 2 seats would actually be 1 Labour ( Kevin Humphres) and 1 additional FG (Josepha Madigan) coming in ahead of Shatter ..
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/general-election-constituencies/dublin-bay-south
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/general-election-constituencies/dublin-rathdown
Personally think FG will do a bit better than the latest PP or Yates predictions.
On the basis that overall they are still a bit more transfer friendly than FF and SF, so I could see them getting a decent proportion of late seats.
I would be surprised if Kildare South: Mark Wall (Labour) gets in. He has lost part of his Dad's stronghold to the Laois constituency the South West Kildare Kildangan-Monasterevin-Churchtown area.
Heydon and Ó Fearghaíl will return and it will be a dog fight between the 2 Fiona's (FF and FG) and Wall. I think FF Fiona will get that last seat.
Quote from: Hound on February 25, 2016, 11:44:16 AM
Personally think FG will do a bit better than the latest PP or Yates predictions.
On the basis that overall they are still a bit more transfer friendly than FF and SF, so I could see them getting a decent proportion of late seats.
The estimated 17-20% undecideds are going to be a major factor. If someone is not exercised enough to be a definite left voter, then the chances are they are undecided between FF/FG and Lab. I'd expect a bounce in those percentages to Labour and FG.
Dun Laoghaire
Sean Barrett (FG) - automatically elected
Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG)
Richard Boyd Barrett (PPP/IA)
Mary Hanifin (FF)
On the radio today I heard an asture comment. Most of the seats in any constituency can be predicted, more or less. But the last seat will be multi way fight in most cases and this will be decided not by first prefs but by transfer. There are 40 constituenciies and so 40 last seats and these could go anywhere e.g. Green could get 2 or none, Renua 3 or one etc
QuoteFine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7; AAA/PBP on 6; Social Democrats on 3; Renua on 1; and Independents on 22 seats.
I'd say FG +2 on this, FF maybe -1, SF - 3 as they are not transfer friendly, Labour to squeeze one more seat somewhere.
I don't think FF + SF + SD would be enough.
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 25, 2016, 12:23:18 AM
"executive management" and "operational management" - do you understand the difference between the two??
I never "tackled" your point re consultants working both privately and publicly because I don't disagree with you on it.
Why don't you tell us? Maybe it is different in the HSE than in the real world.
And please back it up with something, like I did with my link to the Mater Executive Management Team. There is no 'operational management' link on that site that I can find. There is another link to the 'Medical Executive' which looks like another list of consultants. I am guessing that is not management though. But I still stand over my original statement that consultants are involved in management.
Thinking about it more, we as a society invest a huge amount of money (as I am sure they do themselves) in training them up to a very high level of expertise. We should insist on a maximum return for our investment, meaning that they should spend their time working in their area of expertise, in the public system, and not have so many of them waste their time and expertise in management.
I am glad you agree on the private business operations. I can't think of another industry that allows such a perk.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2016, 12:48:10 PM
On the radio today I heard an asture comment. Most of the seats in any constituency can be predicted, more or less. But the last seat will be multi way fight in most cases and this will be decided not by first prefs but by transfer. There are 40 constituenciies and so 40 last seats and these could go anywhere e.g. Green could get 2 or none, Renua 3 or one etc
QuoteFine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7; AAA/PBP on 6; Social Democrats on 3; Renua on 1; and Independents on 22 seats.
I'd say FG +2 on this, FF maybe -1, SF - 3 as they are not transfer friendly, Labour to squeeze one more seat somewhere.
I don't think FF + SF + SD would be enough.
Mighty work there Declan, but if this pans out it would be a nightmare for Inda and a wet dream for Jarry. My gut still tells me that SF will struggle to get above 25 seats unless they've become a lot more transfer friendly recently or there are a lot of "Shy Shinners" out there. In previous elections SF have always performed at the lower end of the polling range
FG/FF
You know it is going to happen.
It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 01:34:25 PM
FG/FF
You know it is going to happen.
It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.
FF/FG would be a real rurally focused outfit
Dublin is leaving the FF FG template behind
Quote from: seafoid on February 25, 2016, 01:38:16 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 01:34:25 PM
FG/FF
You know it is going to happen.
It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.
FF/FG would be a real rurally focused outfit
Dublin is leaving the FF FG template behind
Dublin has abandoned boring FG politics and FF-everywing populism, in favour of far left wing populism. The latter is even worse than the former.
In fact Irish politics is completely depressing at this stage. The only thing going for it is that it makes US politics look like Junior B, but that isn't saying much.
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 01:34:25 PM
FG/FF
You know it is going to happen.
It will be hilarious watching the squirming of both parties as they try to make Civil War politics go away.
Just can't see any logic in FF supporting a FG government.
Fine Gael will try and form a government using pretty much everyone else bar FF, SF and very far lefties.
If that doesn't work then we'll see if FF and SF can get enough independents to support a FF-SF coalition, and in that event both will buy into the idea that they can say we're only doing this to save the country, and past sins can be waived.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2016, 12:48:10 PM
On the radio today I heard an asture comment. Most of the seats in any constituency can be predicted, more or less. But the last seat will be multi way fight in most cases and this will be decided not by first prefs but by transfer. There are 40 constituenciies and so 40 last seats and these could go anywhere e.g. Green could get 2 or none, Renua 3 or one etc
That's true, in an abstract sense. Those 40 last seat battles are not going to be conducted in isolation from each other though. There will be a national trend and it will be telling. If Labour get the hiding that I think they are going to get, no amount of talk about how the final seat 'could go anywhere' will save them. Perversely I think Fine Gael will be hoping for that hiding at this stage. There's far more votes from an eliminated candidate's transfers than from an elected candidate's surplus and I think that, as Hound noted above, will keep Fine Gael ahead of the Four Horsemen posse.
On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.
Of course, much of that history involved less diverse fields of candidates than we have now, with consequentially more predictable transfers. It will be interesting to see the extent to which it holds true this time.
On that Mayo prediction I'd imagine Mulherin should hold her seat over Chambers
Quote from: Hardy on February 25, 2016, 02:13:44 PM
On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.
I'm trying to break that statistic down to better understand it. One assumes that 100% of those who top the poll get elected. It's not that uncommon for them to be elected second, but I doubt someone has ever topped the poll and failed to get elected. If you strip that out and look at the percentage elected who finished in 2nd and 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count, does that mean the 91% figure falls? Or is that 91% of those who finish in 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count get elected?
Edit: as an aside, one of the most amusing examples of a vote pact raising someone from the bottom of the pile was in Dublin Central in 2007 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)#2007_general_election), where Cyprian Brady finished 9th in first preferences yet got in on the final count with nearly 2,000 votes to spare. You can imagine Bertie telling a handful of people to give Cyprian a dig out so he wouldn't be eliminated too early, but Jaysus the rest of ye had better vote for me! The neediness was quite something.
I believe at least a couple of SF candidates have topped the poll after the first count and not been elected, due to not getting a quota, and being toxic for transfers.
FG I think got 45% of the seats last time out on 36% of the vote (roughly) and I think I read recently that they got the bounce of the ball in all of the tight finishes they were involved in with the last seat.
Presume they are hoping the polls are not picking up on the "shy blueshirts" out there.
Cannot wait for Saturday. Great tv viewing watching election count. Drama heaped upon drama. Bring it on.
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 02:28:46 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 25, 2016, 02:13:44 PM
On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.
I'm trying to break that statistic down to better understand it. One assumes that 100% of those who top the poll get elected. It's not that uncommon for them to be elected second, but I doubt someone has ever topped the poll and failed to get elected. If you strip that out and look at the percentage elected who finished in 2nd and 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count, does that mean the 91% figure falls? Or is that 91% of those who finish in 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count get elected?
Edit: as an aside, one of the most amusing examples of a vote pact raising someone from the bottom of the pile was in Dublin Central in 2007 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)#2007_general_election), where Cyprian Brady finished 9th in first preferences yet got in on the final count with nearly 2,000 votes to spare. You can imagine Bertie telling a handful of people to give Cyprian a dig out so he wouldn't be eliminated too early, but Jaysus the rest of ye had better vote for me! The neediness was quite something.
It happened in Sligo/Leitrim in November 1982:
http://www.irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=8&constitid=54&electype=1 (http://www.irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=8&constitid=54&electype=1)
I remember Mary Wallace (MH, FF) saying she made a rookie mistake for her first election - she went to the count at the very start. By the time the first count was announced she was on the verge of a nervous breakdown. And they'd only just started! I think I'll wait until mid afternoon before tuning in, it'll just be taking heads talking guff until then (more so than usual).
Quote from: Owenmoresider on February 25, 2016, 02:50:00 PM
It happened in Sligo/Leitrim in November 1982:
http://www.irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=8&constitid=54&electype=1 (http://www.irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=8&constitid=54&electype=1)
Love it. Thanks for the enlightenment.
Good article on RTÉ's website on the 'rules' for getting elected (http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0115/760253-donnelly-rules-getting-elected/). It addresses the question I asked Hardy above:
QuoteFor a candidate to have a good chance of getting elected they have to be in the frame on the first count. This means that, as a general rule, in a five-seat constituency the candidate has to come in the first five on the first count.
In a three-seat constituency the candidate has to be in the first three places and in the first four in a four-seat constituency.
In the 2011 general election, there were only 11 candidates who came from outside the frame to get elected. In other words, 93% of those elected were within the frame on the first count.
So 11 people out of 43 constituencies managed to get elected despite being outside the medals after the first count. They are not good odds, are they?
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 04:01:38 PM
Good article on RTÉ's website on the 'rules' for getting elected (http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0115/760253-donnelly-rules-getting-elected/). It addresses the question I asked Hardy above:
QuoteFor a candidate to have a good chance of getting elected they have to be in the frame on the first count. This means that, as a general rule, in a five-seat constituency the candidate has to come in the first five on the first count.
In a three-seat constituency the candidate has to be in the first three places and in the first four in a four-seat constituency.
In the 2011 general election, there were only 11 candidates who came from outside the frame to get elected. In other words, 93% of those elected were within the frame on the first count.
So 11 people out of 43 constituencies managed to get elected despite being outside the medals after the first count. They are not good odds, are they?
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 02:28:46 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 25, 2016, 02:13:44 PM
On the other hand, statistics from the complete history of general elections show that in, 91% of cases, the result at the end of the first count stands. That is, 91% of seats are filled as if there was only the first count.
I'm trying to break that statistic down to better understand it. One assumes that 100% of those who top the poll get elected. It's not that uncommon for them to be elected second, but I doubt someone has ever topped the poll and failed to get elected. If you strip that out and look at the percentage elected who finished in 2nd and 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count, does that mean the 91% figure falls? Or is that 91% of those who finish in 3rd/4th/5th place after the first count get elected?
Edit: as an aside, one of the most amusing examples of a vote pact raising someone from the bottom of the pile was in Dublin Central in 2007 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)#2007_general_election), where Cyprian Brady finished 9th in first preferences yet got in on the final count with nearly 2,000 votes to spare. You can imagine Bertie telling a handful of people to give Cyprian a dig out so he wouldn't be eliminated too early, but Jaysus the rest of ye had better vote for me! The neediness was quite something.
I heard some psephologist on the radio quote it. He just gave the bald statistic as I stated it and the subsequent discussion made it clear that it means the 91% includes the poll-toppers.
Either way, it wouldn't make much difference percentage-wise.
Either (if the statistics refers to 91% of all seats):
Of 166 seats, 91% were filled as they would be after the first count – that is 151 were decided and 15 were undecided. 100% of poll-toppers were elected. Remove them from the equation. (With 43 constituencies) there were 15 (12%) of the 123 remaining seats still at issue, meaning 89% of the seats filled by non-poll-toppers were decided after the first count in this scenario.
Or (if the statistics refers to 91% of seats not filled by poll-toppers):
Of 166 seats, 43 were filled by the poll-toppers as they would be after the first count. 91% (112) of the remaining 123 were filled as they would have been after the first count. In combination, 155 of 166 or 93% were filled as they would have been after the first count.
I think.
Edit: I've just seen your post above - so it looks like Scenario 2. However, that's just one election. The quote I heard referred to the statistics over all history and the ensuing discussion seemed to be on the basis of Scenario 1.
I dunno.
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 04:11:16 PM
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 04:23:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 04:11:16 PM
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.
I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.
Interesting breakdown of newly registered voters this time around. Assuming they are in the18-25 group does this point to a change in voting patterns in the constituencies where they are higher than normal each election ncycle ??
(http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2016/02/table-72.png)
I don't know how many of them will vote, but 961 new voters could have a massive influence in somewhere like Mayo.
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 04:23:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 04:11:16 PM
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.
I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.
Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 25, 2016, 05:59:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 04:23:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 04:11:16 PM
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.
I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.
Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.
Personally I think the value of those shows is completely overrated. All politics is local and all that.
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 05:39:25 PM
I don't know how many of them will vote, but 961 new voters could have a massive influence in somewhere like Mayo.
That's about 770 on a very optimistic 80% turnout, split across the various parties and candidates where the quota last time was over 10,000. It could be significant in a tight fight, but I wouldn't be convinced. Not that we'll ever really know the impact.
Would be interesting to see how much growth in the register that represents, compared to other elections.
Quote from: Declan on February 25, 2016, 07:59:24 AM
Cavan/Monaghan: Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF); Heather Humphreys (FG); Brendan Smith (FF); Kathryn Reilly (SF).
Not sure about this. FG to go from 3 seats to 1 (albeit that the constituency has lost a seat)? Reilly lost out last time and being SF's Cavan rep, she's lost a big chunk of her constituency this time. They'd need very good vote management to pull it off.
FG were very badly advised tactically. They didn't improve their support one iota since the first day of canvassing.
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 06:18:46 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 25, 2016, 05:59:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 04:23:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 04:11:16 PM
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.
I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.
Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.
Personally I think the value of those shows is completely overrated. All politics is local and all that.
Yeah, but this had a local audience and she got great exposure along with a love in with Vincent. He really played to her tune.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 25, 2016, 10:31:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 06:18:46 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 25, 2016, 05:59:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 05:05:38 PM
Quote from: deiseach on February 25, 2016, 04:23:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 25, 2016, 04:11:16 PM
Most of them were probably very close to the medals after the first count as well, maybe with a party member going to be eliminated or dividing up a surplus?
Yeah, I'd say that was a useful strategy back in the days of the 2.5 party system for FG and FF. Run three candidates in a four/five seater and hoover up votes all over the constituency. The man (or occasional woman) who was second of the three might miss out, but the party won't care. The problem these days is that such a strategy assumes you have at least two quotas between the three candidates on the first count. There's very few places - Mayo for FG? - where that will be the case.
I'd expect Ring to top the poll in Mayo. Kenny will be fine and then it comes down to their ability to bring in Mulherrin. They got 4 out of 5 the least time which was a fantasy result in a constituency which used to frequently deliver 4 FF seats from 6 (two 3 seaters). They could easily do it but it will be tight.
Mulherrin is 2/9 with Paddy Power to get her seat. She was evens before this. Her performance on Vincent Brownes Show seems to have cemented her position. Chambers did well on the show, but did not get the same air time. Conway Walsh was average to weak.
Personally I think the value of those shows is completely overrated. All politics is local and all that.
Yeah, but this had a local audience and she got great exposure along with a love in with Vincent. He really played to her tune.
Serious question, why didn't the Shinners go with Gerry Murray?
Sf plus FG plus Shane Ross and co would work
The love in with Vincent and Michelle was fairly obvious on the Monday night. Nice to see that love in between the two of them continueing on Wednesday with a spot of lunch in the Posthouse in Ballina. A personal interview I'd say😁
Decent smattering of voters waiting at my polling station at 7am this morning- Vote early and often folks
I voted for change and stability ;)
Murray went before in 07. Either the gender quota or 'blondes' on posters swayed them for Conway-Walsh.
Job done. Quiet in Newport so far anyway. Probably waiting to see if Alan Kelly will announce 50 new jobs in a pig farm in Borrisoleigh.
QuoteProbably waiting to see if Alan Kelly will announce 50 new jobs in a pig farm in Borrisoleigh.
A bit like this - sums up our clientelism approach to national legislature - Kildysart GAA endorsing a candidate
https://twitter.com/andreakirwan/status/703149686073352192 (https://twitter.com/andreakirwan/status/703149686073352192)
Good luck today all ye great folk of the Irish republic. I hope that horrible bastard kenny gets the road one way or another.
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 10:11:45 AM
QuoteProbably waiting to see if Alan Kelly will announce 50 new jobs in a pig farm in Borrisoleigh.
A bit like this - sums up our clientelism approach to national legislature - Kildysart GAA endorsing a candidate
https://twitter.com/andreakirwan/status/703149686073352192 (https://twitter.com/andreakirwan/status/703149686073352192)
Will that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
Quote from: seafoid on February 26, 2016, 07:21:12 AM
Sf plus FG plus Shane Ross and co would work
You're banging the FG/SF drum for a while Seaf.
It might in 2021 but SF haven't moved far enough to the Centre yet.
QuoteWill that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
You'd imagine so but what's serious trouble?? Maybe they took the attitude to seek forgiveness rather than permission ;)
Quote from: Rossfan on February 26, 2016, 10:33:32 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 26, 2016, 07:21:12 AM
Sf plus FG plus Shane Ross and co would work
You're banging the FG/SF drum for a while Seaf.
It might in 2021 but SF haven't moved far enough to the Centre yet.
Eamon OCuiv suggested it. I think SF are ultra pragmatic.
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 10:34:53 AM
QuoteWill that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
You'd imagine so but what's serious trouble?? Maybe they took the attitude to seek forgiveness rather than permission ;)
That didn't really work for Dromard, did it?
True
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 26, 2016, 10:40:34 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 10:34:53 AM
QuoteWill that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
You'd imagine so but what's serious trouble?? Maybe they took the attitude to seek forgiveness rather than permission ;)
That didn't really work for Dromard, did it?
There was a clear directive on that. But even so, I've seen a video of Michael Duignan posing in O'Connor Park, with the Uibh Fhailí in the background, supporting Barry Cowan; Eamonn Kelly, the Offaly hurling manager with a video supporting Joe Hannigan; Paudie Maher in his Tipp tracksuit throwing hurls in a car, and promoting Jackie Cahill.
Quote from: seafoid on February 26, 2016, 07:21:12 AM
Sf plus FG plus Shane Ross and co would work
I think you mean, SF plus FG plus Shane Ross and co would
work have the numbers.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 26, 2016, 11:21:28 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 26, 2016, 10:40:34 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 10:34:53 AM
QuoteWill that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
You'd imagine so but what's serious trouble?? Maybe they took the attitude to seek forgiveness rather than permission ;)
That didn't really work for Dromard, did it?
There was a clear directive on that. But even so, I've seen a video of Michael Duignan posing in O'Connor Park, with the Uibh Fhailí in the background, supporting Barry Cowan; Eamonn Kelly, the Offaly hurling manager with a video supporting Joe Hannigan; Paudie Maher in his Tipp tracksuit throwing hurls in a car, and promoting Jackie Cahill.
Yeah, they're GAA 'personalities' so the rules don't apply to them - only to small insignificant clubs. I'd say there'll be wigs on the green about 'little' clubs ignoring the directive.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 26, 2016, 11:21:28 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 26, 2016, 10:40:34 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 10:34:53 AM
QuoteWill that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
You'd imagine so but what's serious trouble?? Maybe they took the attitude to seek forgiveness rather than permission ;)
That didn't really work for Dromard, did it?
There was a clear directive on that. But even so, I've seen a video of Michael Duignan posing in O'Connor Park, with the Uibh Fhailí in the background, supporting Barry Cowan; Eamonn Kelly, the Offaly hurling manager with a video supporting Joe Hannigan; Paudie Maher in his Tipp tracksuit throwing hurls in a car, and promoting Jackie Cahill.
Can't do anything about private citizens endorsing candidates though. Even if a GAA ground is in the background or they have a hurl in their hand.
Does the moratorium apply to print media? The indo in particular?
Think it's just broadcast myself but open t correction on that
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 12:48:37 PM
Think it's just broadcast myself but open t correction on that
Yeah it is. Doesn't apply to newspapers.
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 26, 2016, 12:05:17 PM
Yeah, they're GAA 'personalities' so the rules don't apply to them - only to small insignificant clubs. I'd say there'll be wigs on the green about 'little' clubs ignoring the directive.
An individual is not a club. There would be rightly be "wigs on the green" if s club supported a candidate.
Quote from: shark on February 26, 2016, 12:06:08 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 26, 2016, 11:21:28 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 26, 2016, 10:40:34 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2016, 10:34:53 AM
QuoteWill that not get them in serious trouble with Croker? Was there not a specific instruction from Croker at the start of the election campaign 'warning' clubs not to do exactly 'this sort of thing'?
You'd imagine so but what's serious trouble?? Maybe they took the attitude to seek forgiveness rather than permission ;)
That didn't really work for Dromard, did it?
There was a clear directive on that. But even so, I've seen a video of Michael Duignan posing in O'Connor Park, with the Uibh Fhailí in the background, supporting Barry Cowan; Eamonn Kelly, the Offaly hurling manager with a video supporting Joe Hannigan; Paudie Maher in his Tipp tracksuit throwing hurls in a car, and promoting Jackie Cahill.
Can't do anything about private citizens endorsing candidates though. Even if a GAA ground is in the background or they have a hurl in their hand.
I know, but it's cheeky. It's an obvious attempt to imply an association. Even the makeup of Duignan's shot, with the iconic view of the stand in O'Connor Park, so you can see Uibh Fhailí in the background, gives the impression to the uninitiated that Offaly GAA support Barry Cowan. Paudie throwing the hurls in to the car, in full Tiobraid Arann gear says the same. It implies he is speaking as Tipperary hurler Paudie Maher, not citizen Paudie Maher.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 26, 2016, 04:31:27 PM
I know, but it's cheeky. It's an obvious attempt to imply an association. Even the makeup of Duignan's shot, with the iconic view of the stand in O'Connor Park, so you can see Uibh Fhailí in the background, gives the impression to the uninitiated that Offaly GAA support Barry Cowan. Paudie throwing the hurls in to the car, in full Tiobraid Arann gear says the same. It implies he is speaking as Tipperary hurler Paudie Maher, not citizen Paudie Maher.
This is a rule long ignored. Sure the GPA was campaigning in the Marriage Destruction Referendum.
Irish Times exit poll very interesting.
It appears that about 56% of people never learn.
Quote from: OgraAnDun on February 26, 2016, 11:02:47 PM
It appears that about 56% of people never learn.
Tell us about the great alternatives.
FG 26.1%, FF 22% INDE 16% SF 14.9 % LB 7.8% AAA/PBP 3.6% GP 3.5% SD 2.8 % REN 2.3%
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 26, 2016, 11:05:32 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on February 26, 2016, 11:02:47 PM
It appears that about 56% of people never learn.
Tell us about the great alternatives.
There's no point discussing this topic with you judging by your posts on the FG thread, but virtually any reasonably sensible party would be a better alternative to the shower that decided to protect the bondholders and the other shower who kept implementing the type of austerity which has led to a homeless crisis and left Ireland with the second worst healthcare system in Europe, after (IIRC) war torn Ukraine. I suppose generations of family voting were just too hard to break in the end. Hopefully the opinion polls are wrong or there is a serious transfer of votes to the 'non-establishment parties' after the first count. If FG get back in at all in any form as the bigger party, watch the Irish Water prosecutions and the evictions mount up in the next 12-24 months.
(http://s15.postimg.org/5lmticxhn/exitpoll.png)
Kenny will have to go if this turns out like this tomorrow.
Quote from: OgraAnDun on February 26, 2016, 11:16:55 PMThere's no point discussing this topic with you judging by your posts on the FG thread, but virtually any reasonably sensible party would be a better alternative to the shower
There are things about FG's handling of the austerity that can easily be criticised. But it has to be said that under their watch that austerity has ended and so things will improve.
Quote from: OgraAnDun on February 26, 2016, 11:16:55 PM
Hopefully the opinion polls are wrong or there is a serious transfer of votes to the 'non-establishment parties' after the first count. If FG get back in at all in any form as the bigger party, watch the Irish Water prosecutions and the evictions mount up in the next 12-24 months.
Hopefully the Irish water prosecutions will start, as there are many people with plenty of money stealing their service.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 26, 2016, 11:25:09 PM
Kenny will have to go if this turns out like this tomorrow.
Really?
With those figures FG & FF will easily form a government.
Adams position would be the most untenable if that poll is correct.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 26, 2016, 11:39:02 PM
Quote from: OgraAnDun on February 26, 2016, 11:16:55 PMThere's no point discussing this topic with you judging by your posts on the FG thread, but virtually any reasonably sensible party would be a better alternative to the shower
There are things about FG's handling of the austerity that can easily be criticised. But it has to be said that under their watch that austerity has ended and so things will improve.
Quote from: OgraAnDun on February 26, 2016, 11:16:55 PM
Hopefully the opinion polls are wrong or there is a serious transfer of votes to the 'non-establishment parties' after the first count. If FG get back in at all in any form as the bigger party, watch the Irish Water prosecutions and the evictions mount up in the next 12-24 months.
Hopefully the Irish water prosecutions will start, as there are many people with plenty of money stealing their service.
We'll see if the austerity has finished or whether that was a nice sweetener of a budget to try and buy an extra few seats today. There are plenty of people without 'lots of money' being chased by Irish Water to pay up.
Quote from: muppet on February 26, 2016, 11:40:21 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 26, 2016, 11:25:09 PM
Kenny will have to go if this turns out like this tomorrow.
Really?
With those figures FG & FF will easily form a government.
Adams position would be the most untenable if that poll is correct.
I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.
Based on that poll did SF's vote not go up by 50%? FG's down by nearly 30% yet Jarry is in trouble??
Projection from @ElectionStatsIE based on exit poll.
Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI exit poll seat projections:
FG: 48
FF: 40
SF: 26
IND: 21
LAB: 9
GP: 4
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
Will be interesting to see if he is anywhere close.
Quote from: AQMP on February 26, 2016, 11:51:32 PM
Based on that poll did SF's vote not go up by 50%? FG's down by nearly 30% yet Jarry is in trouble??
If it turns out that FF come out with a bagful more seats than SF then it should be curtains for Gerry.
If Kenny can form a government he will survive (although he should go for lots of reasons as soon as possible afterwards - ach sin scéal eile) because that is the way politics works.
Quote from: AQMP on February 26, 2016, 11:51:32 PM
Based on that poll did SF's vote not go up by 50%? FG's down by nearly 30% yet Jarry is in trouble??
I was reading on Twitter during the week that SF were looking at 20%. Any increase since 2011 in the current political climate was absolutely inevitable. You say 50% increase, some might say a 5% increase which doesn't quite have the same ring to it!
SF have well and truly smashed the traditional duopoly.
It was true. All the Mexicans needed was a bit of northern protestant work ethic.
FF will have well over 50% more seats than SF, they will get more transfers, Martin will not be under pressure. Eamon Ryan has had a good day too, perhaps my comment about the Green not getting in Dublin Rathdown was premature, there was talk of SDs and Renua, but the Greens are now also a possible minor partner.
Kenny will be under pressure. He deserves this for appointing Phil Hogan to set up Irish Water, a complete chancer who could then clear off from his handiwork. If he had given the job to Coveney or Varadkar they would at least have known that they would have to justify their work in the future and might have done a half decent job.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 26, 2016, 11:45:44 PM
I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.
If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.
We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.
Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?
Normal polls and exit polls have a poor recent record internationally.
I think those shy voters hv voted FG 2 keep the recovery going.
SF were up against FF, in particular, a party ruined having delivered the country from boom to bust. They were also up against FG/Labour, parties who started off in an IMF straight jacket and who didn't do a very good job of getting out of that jacket.
It was the ultimate open goal, and yet FG remain the largest party with FF roaring back.
If not FG/FF then FF or FG will have to talk to SF along with a load of others. I would guess that Adams head would be a deal breaker for either party.
So either SF somehow get into government and Adams would most likely have to go, or they sit in opposition with either a huge FG/FF majority government, or the have a reduced influence in opposition behind either a weak FG or FF led government. Either way it wasn't a good day for them.
Caveat: Exit Poll are just more polls and final transfers can change things an awful lot.
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 27, 2016, 12:19:03 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 26, 2016, 11:45:44 PM
I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.
If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.
We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.
Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?
Junior partner in he past has meant a couple of ministries, but these guys will have a broadly similar number of seats, the number of ministries will be similar with only the Taoiseach providing the majority.
The real problem with FG/FF is that is leaves most of the opposition as loolahs and as people inevitably turn against the government it could either ruin the country at the next election.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2016, 12:58:35 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 27, 2016, 12:19:03 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 26, 2016, 11:45:44 PM
I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.
If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.
We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.
Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?
Junior partner in he past has meant a couple of ministries, but these guys will have a broadly similar number of seats, the number of ministries will be similar with only the Taoiseach providing the majority.
The real problem with FG/FF is that is leaves most of the opposition as loolahs and as people inevitably turn against the government it could either ruin the country at the next election.
I don't know that this would be the case though. Rabble rousing works up to a point and there will always be a sizeable minority that falls for impassioned ranting about everything with no logical thought, however to actually win an election and become the largest party in the Dáil, Sinn Féin would have to move to the centre to a considerable degree. In western society, the only way you win elections is by being in the right place at the right time to capitalise on an economic catastrophe, or else by seizing the middle. Bertie Ahern knew it, Tony Blair knew it, and Sinn Féin will know it too.
Anyway, things are still quite fragile - I'll take my chances on left wing loolahs down the road, if it means avoiding a hung Dáil and a repeat election now - that certainly won't benefit anyone.
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 27, 2016, 01:12:43 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2016, 12:58:35 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 27, 2016, 12:19:03 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 26, 2016, 11:45:44 PM
I agree on both counts, but I can't see a resurgent FF going in as the junior partner. Just my opinion of course.
If FF leave the country in limbo purely out of self-interest, then you'd like to think that the electorate will punish them for that.
We probably wouldn't, but hope springs eternal.
Genuinely though, Micheál Martin has made his apologies for the ruination that FF brought upon the country at the end of the last decade, and he now has a great chance to really do the country some service. Surely to God there would be some moral obligation to step up?
Junior partner in he past has meant a couple of ministries, but these guys will have a broadly similar number of seats, the number of ministries will be similar with only the Taoiseach providing the majority.
The real problem with FG/FF is that is leaves most of the opposition as loolahs and as people inevitably turn against the government it could either ruin the country at the next election.
I don't know that this would be the case though. Rabble rousing works up to a point and there will always be a sizeable minority that falls for impassioned ranting about everything with no logical thought, however to actually win an election and become the largest party in the Dáil, Sinn Féin would have to move to the centre to a considerable degree. In western society, the only way you win elections is by being in the right place at the right time to capitalise on an economic catastrophe, or else by seizing the middle. Bertie Ahern knew it, Tony Blair knew it, and Sinn Féin will know it too.
Anyway, things are still quite fragile - I'll take my chances on left wing loolahs down the road, if it means avoiding a hung Dáil and a repeat election now - that certainly won't benefit anyone.
If FF end up going in with FG it'll almost certainly cause a irrevocable split in FF, and leave SF to be able to move into the centre ground that FF will be effectively vacating. Wouldn't mind an FF/SF arrangement but it'll probably need more numbers to be viable. Time will tell.
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 12:47:44 AM
SF were up against FF, in particular, a party ruined having delivered the country from boom to bust. They were also up against FG/Labour, parties who started off in an IMF straight jacket and who didn't do a very good job of getting out of that jacket.
It was the ultimate open goal, and yet FG remain the largest party with FF roaring back.
If not FG/FF then FF or FG will have to talk to SF along with a load of others. I would guess that Adams head would be a deal breaker for either party.
So either SF somehow get into government and Adams would most likely have to go, or they sit in opposition with either a huge FG/FF majority government, or the have a reduced influence in opposition behind either a weak FG or FF led government. Either way it wasn't a good day for them.
Caveat: Exit Poll are just more polls and final transfers can change things an awful lot.
PR is a weird system
Remember a few years back Enda's bacon was save by transfers from Fianna Faiil's Frank Chambers
In the recent Local Elections in Mayo Blackie Gavin (FF) received more transfers from Eugene Lavin (FG) than Brendan Henaghan received (FG). Giving Blackie the last seat
Both happened with n the final count
It will be interesting to see how people vote "down ticket". If your first choice is a protest vote, and you give 2 and 3 to Ff/FG, it's the same as giving a 1 to FF/FG
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition
Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2016, 06:06:14 AM
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition
A bit early for SF. FF need 2 more elections to recover. SF have that time to ensure they don't. Neoliberalism is breaking down too so FG will also be vulnerable.
Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2016, 06:06:14 AM
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition
You really think there are plenty of SF voters there who won't vote for them with Gerry as leader? That's good to hear, but I think myself there are more who vote for SF because of Gerry than don't vote for them because of Gerry.
In all honesty, I think what the exit polls are showing is exactly what was expected.
That looks like a bit of an implosion from FG and Labour. Kenny has been brutal in the campaign.
It looks like FF and FG are the only option so expect new poling cards in the post in a couple of months.
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 07:28:52 AM
Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2016, 06:06:14 AM
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition
You really think there are plenty of SF voters there who won't vote for them with Gerry as leader? That's good to hear, but I think myself there are more who vote for SF because of Gerry than don't vote for them because of Gerry.
In all honesty, I think what the exit polls are showing is exactly what was expected.
Those who vote because of Gerry, do you think any of them wouldn't vote SF if Mary-Lou took over?
The percentages in the exit polls - assume that's just first preferences? If so, really difficult to make much sense of it with the size if the Independents vote.
Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2016, 06:06:14 AM
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
I know SF die hards can't seem to see it, but with all the negativity around FG, Lab and FF, there was an open goal available for them. But by sticking with Adams, they've let that pass them by. They'll do ok, but they really should have been in a position to lead a coalition
A bit early for SF. FF need 2 more elections to recover. SF have that time to ensure they don't. Neoliberalism is breaking down too so FG will also be vulnerable. AAA PBP did very well
FF remind me of glory glory Man Utd. Reduced expectations.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 27, 2016, 08:25:39 AM
That looks like a bit of an implosion from FG and Labour. Kenny has been brutal in the campaign.
It looks like FF and FG are the only option so expect new poling cards in the post in a couple of months.
FG read the national mood very badly
RTE exit poll has FG less than 25%. According to it the smaller parties and independents seem to have done better than the poll last night. But as posters rightly say there's no indication on where transfers might go. I'm still going with SF to get fewer than 25 seats 8)
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
This was the big opportunity for SF. FF in disarray and FG/Labour coming out of an unpopular government after Troika imposed austerity. FF will probably improve next time and Kenny will not be leader for the next election, so expect an improvement from FG.
Adams is toxic to most people in the 26. Worshippers won't get this so there is little point in even debating it with them. But SF really needs to ask itself, does it want to represent the people interests, or Gerry Adams interests?
Worshipping and hatred are both blind muppet. By you logic had SF got 30% you'd have been saying they should have got 35%. The phrases"there's no point debating is always a good retreat strategy😛
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 09:28:47 AM
Quote from: haranguerer on February 27, 2016, 01:24:44 AM
Your logic is strange to say the least muppet. Past election performance is ignored it seems, so it's a bad election for SF because they were up against FF and didn't beat/come closer to them.
I guess it's a bad election for FF too then, given they didn't beat FG, a bad election for FG seeing as they don't have a majority, etc etc.
This was the big opportunity for SF. FF in disarray and FG/Labour coming out of an unpopular government after Troika imposed austerity. FF will probably improve next time and Kenny will not be leader for the next election, so expect an improvement from FG.
Adams is toxic to most people in the 26. Worshippers won't get this so there is little point in even debating it with them. But SF really needs to ask itself, does it want to represent the people interests, or Gerry Adams interests?
Disagree about this being the big chance. I think this was always the set up shot. I do think Adams might serve the party in the south better by handing over the reins to Mary Lou or Pearse.
However the big opportunity for SF is of FF and FG go into power together and leave SF as the main opposition. That would put them in a great position for the next election.
And that last paragraph of AZ's is one of the reasons why I couldn't be the minor party in govt.
SF will have another chance after the next crash.
I think the important point is that for first time in history of state largest 2 parties haven't got >50% of vote
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 27, 2016, 08:38:07 AM
Those who vote because of Gerry, do you think any of them wouldn't vote SF if Mary-Lou took over?
He has a large personal vote, I think it's likely some at least wouldn't be as inclined to.
I also think when Gerry does step down, it won't be an easy transition; it could go either way, and I'd prefer he stayed for a while yet to further establish SF. All the talk about him holding SF back is based on this hypothetical idea that, OK, under his leadership they have grown massively, but they would have grown even more without his leadership. The evidence suggests otherwise
Guru on RTÉ radio saying FF might end up as biggest Party :-[
QuoteGuru on RTÉ radio saying FF might end up as biggest Party :-[
Well that proves Eistein's quote re insanity
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 10:34:18 AM
QuoteGuru on RTÉ radio saying FF might end up as biggest Party :-[
Well that proves Eistein's quote re insanity
(http://cdn.bigbangfish.com/quotes/einstein-quotes-insanity/einstein-quotes-insanity-3.jpg)
Quote from: Rossfan on February 27, 2016, 10:21:54 AM
Guru on RTÉ radio saying FF might end up as biggest Party :-[
If that's true then surely Kenny is toast??
Quote from: AQMP on February 27, 2016, 09:35:22 AM
Worshipping and hatred are both blind muppet. By you logic had SF got 30% you'd have been saying they should have got 35%. The phrases"there's no point debating is always a good retreat strategy😛
If they had got 35% they would have been the biggest party and would be in pole position to form a government.
How on earth is that my logic?
They appear to be a very poor 3rd to FG & FF who are both suffering from association with austerity.
FF will improve, this seems to be lost on everyone. FG will probably stay as they are now and below the 2011 figures. If the economy doesn't crash again we could easily slip back to the 1980s/1990s Lanigan's Ball politics of FF steps in and FG steps out. Whither SF then?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcN3uerWEAAqWCA.jpg)
The Healy-Rae party has over 40% of 1st preferences in Kerry with 30% of the boxes open. I am praying that merely reflects the geography of the boxes opened!
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 11:17:09 AM
Quote from: AQMP on February 27, 2016, 09:35:22 AM
Worshipping and hatred are both blind muppet. By you logic had SF got 30% you'd have been saying they should have got 35%. The phrases"there's no point debating is always a good retreat strategy😛
If they had got 35% they would have been the biggest party and would be in pole position to form a government.
How on earth is that my logic?
They appear to be a very poor 3rd to FG & FF who are both suffering from association with austerity.
FF will improve, this seems to be lost on everyone. FG will probably stay as they are now and below the 2011 figures. If the economy doesn't crash again we could easily slip back to the 1980s/1990s Lanigan's Ball politics of FF steps in and FG steps out. Whither SF then?
It will crash again the way things are going. Neoliberalism is all about impoverishING working class people so SF have a bright future.
If Shinners pray I expect it's for a formal FG/FF Government with SF as the only real opposition.
One way or other I presume the Labour rump will go into opposition and lurch to the left.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 11:20:37 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcN3uerWEAAqWCA.jpg)
The Healy-Rae party has over 40% of 1st preferences in Kerry with 30% of the boxes open. I am praying that merely reflects the geography of the boxes opened!
We agree on this muppet!! A good day for the Healy-Raes is a headline that will put the shivers up most people
Mick Wallace's tally in North Wexford is half of the 2011 figure. I have no idea whether that is signifiant, but I hope so!
Jaysus I hate politics, but I love a good count.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 11:37:00 AM
Mick Wallace's tally in North Wexford is half of the 2011 figure. I have no idea whether that is signifiant, but I hope so!
Jaysus I hate politics, but I love a good count.
There's a joke there muppet! Aye no one in my house has the least understanding of my love of elections
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 11:21:48 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 11:17:09 AM
Quote from: AQMP on February 27, 2016, 09:35:22 AM
Worshipping and hatred are both blind muppet. By you logic had SF got 30% you'd have been saying they should have got 35%. The phrases"there's no point debating is always a good retreat strategy😛
If they had got 35% they would have been the biggest party and would be in pole position to form a government.
How on earth is that my logic?
They appear to be a very poor 3rd to FG & FF who are both suffering from association with austerity.
FF will improve, this seems to be lost on everyone. FG will probably stay as they are now and below the 2011 figures. If the economy doesn't crash again we could easily slip back to the 1980s/1990s Lanigan's Ball politics of FF steps in and FG steps out. Whither SF then?
It will crash again the way things are going. Neoliberalism is all about impoverishING working class people so SF have a bright future.
Have you ever been to the North?! SF don't want the working classes to achieve economic prosperity in case they get above their station and start looking at other parties which support the working man and woman. They have spent 30 years helping people fill in DLA and dole forms instead of seeking inward investment.
Quote from: AQMP on February 27, 2016, 11:44:42 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 11:37:00 AM
Mick Wallace's tally in North Wexford is half of the 2011 figure. I have no idea whether that is signifiant, but I hope so!
Jaysus I hate politics, but I love a good count.
There's a joke there muppet! Aye no one in my house has the least understanding of my love of elections
I am getting worried that I will waste the whole day, watching people that I have no time for, to see if they succeed in something I hate.
Healy-Rae Party claims victory and seek to form next government!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcN_n8qXEAAWf4j.jpg)
Interesting tweet:
Ronan Burtenshaw @ronanburtenshaw 16m16 minutes ago
June 1927 only Irish election similar to #ge16. CnaG 27.4, FF 26.2, Lab 12.6, Farmers 8.9, NLP 7.3, SF 3.6. Led to another election in Sept.
Early tally in Wexford:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcOHsatXEAAFGaO.jpg)
5 seats I think, so either Howlin or Wallace in trouble, or both!
Mark Mortell - senior strategist with Fine Gael and confidant to the Taoiseach - has said Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will have to consider the situation of working together despite both parties being against the prospect before the election.
However he said it won't be easy for the two parties to take the big step and come together, and the prospect of a fresh election was "very, very high".
Speaking to Seán O'Rourke on RTÉ Radio One, Mr Mortell said Fine Gael was always going to come back with fewer seats. He added that it looked like it was not going to be a good day for the party and that they might only come back with fewer than 50 seats.
Think both FG and Labour need to lick their wounds and head into opposition benches. They were rejected in a big way. If people voted for resurgent FF, SF and Independents, they are the ones with the mandate. Let them govern. If it doesn't work out we'll have another election. If it does then you'll have to hand it to them.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 12:26:21 PM
Early tally in Wexford:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcOHsatXEAAFGaO.jpg)
I feel good.
Michael McGrath of Fianna Fáil said there was an onus on everyone to put the country first and work for a stable government. He said it was not just Fianna Fáil's responsibility.
He said that voters were giving mixed messages, rather than one clear and simple message.
Mmmm - in the national interest😉 I reckon you'll be hearing that phrase a lot in the next few days
I'm finding it hard to watch and listen to the FFer's at the moment to be honest
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 12:39:39 PM
Michael McGrath of Fianna Fáil said there was an onus on everyone to put the country first and work for a stable government. He said it was not just Fianna Fáil's responsibility.
He said that voters were giving mixed messages, rather than one clear and simple message.
Mmmm - in the national interest😉 I reckon you'll be hearing that phrase a lot in the next few days
This is the usual guff you hear. Everyone interprets the 'voters message' to suit themselves.
Boyd-Barrett called it a revolution, as I think he has called every election he has stood in. <5% is hardly a revolution.
I think both Healy Raes will stroll into the Dail. To be honest I think FG and FF should just join again, and be the party which represents most people. Then Sinn Fein and the other left leaning parties, maybe with Labour going back to their roots, could at least be a viable alternative.
Why would #GE2 give a different result?
Finally, a Dail more reflective of a diverse Ireland
Smaller parties, local politics and a bit more of a left leaning vote.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 27, 2016, 01:20:56 PM
I think both Healy Raes will stroll into the Dail. To be honest I think FG and FF should just join again, and be the party which represents most people. Then Sinn Fein and the other left leaning parties, maybe with Labour going back to their roots, could at least be a viable alternative.
Surely that is the message the voters have sent? ;D
The political landscape appears very odd these days. FG, Renua on the right (no PDs) along with a couple of independents like Shane Ross, FF everywhere on the spectrum, Labour a biteen to the left, SF a lot further left and then a smattering of extreme far leftists.
THB I think this election and the last one could be a peak for all of these left parties. The post-crash depression won't last forever, and Ireland seems to be coping the best in Europe (although that isn't saying much). The left could whittle down to maybe two parties eventually, possibly even one if Labour blow up like the PDs did.
Unfortunately there is a lot of mixed messages from voters. People in public employ want their wages back, since there is a recovery, while others favour pay cuts in bad times but no increases in better ones. Some people don't want to be heavily taxed for the benefit of others who work less hard than they do, while the latter group think the rich should pay for their lifestyles.
One thing most would agree on is an end to cronyism and properly run services.
Unfortunately while people purport to want an end to bullshit and stunts, they seem to still have a high toleration for bullshit and stunts that suit them.
Mick Wallace looks OK. Christy Burke got a good amount of first preferences as well.
I wonder will there be a blowout on the bonds de Luain. Ireland is the poster boy for austerity and political incoherence will not do.
Lucinda could be in bother. :D
Looks like this man has walked it in Limerick as usual: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4ure_GSHw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4ure_GSHw)
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 01:33:28 PM
Mick Wallace looks OK. Christy Burke got a good amount of first preferences as well.
I wonder will there be a blowout on the bonds de Luain. Ireland is the poster boy for austerity and political incoherence will not do.
Just seeing that now, Howlin doing fine as well. This will swing back and forth all day and tomorrow. A bit like watching the Ryder Cup.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 01:33:59 PM
Lucinda could be in bother. :D
Between her and Eamon Ryan apparently
4th and last seat in Mayo will be interesting. Looks to be between Mulherin (FG) and Chambers (FF). Ring (FG), Kenny (FG) & Calleary (FF) look to have the other 3.
3-1 FG/FF or 2-2 in Mayo is a massive difference and that alone could see Kenny in trouble. Chambers is apparently (tallies) slightly ahead but the transfers from Ring & Kenny could sway it.
Mayo used to have 6 seats and now is down to 4. Apart from the chunk of South Mayo that was grafted on to Galway West are any.other bits of the county missing from the constituency?
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 01:58:23 PM
Mayo used to have 6 seats and now is down to 4. Apart from the chunk of South Mayo that was grafted on to Galway West are any.other bits of the county missing from the constituency?
Dunno.
Emigration is probably the biggest factor. Donegal & Kerry also losing seats.
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 27, 2016, 01:25:12 PM
Finally, a Dail more reflective of a diverse Ireland
Smaller parties, local politics and a bit more of a left leaning vote.
I would say it's more like a Dáil representative of a community that thinks it knows what it doesn't want but has no idea what it does want.
All politics is local
One in all in: The Healy-Raes have a message for the "smart alecs in Dublin" (via @thejournal_ie) http://jrnl.ie/2628233 (http://jrnl.ie/2628233)
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 02:48:19 PM
All politics is local
One in all in: The Healy-Raes have a message for the "smart alecs in Dublin" (via @thejournal_ie) http://jrnl.ie/2628233 (http://jrnl.ie/2628233)
they are like a parody
Quote from: Hardy on February 27, 2016, 02:42:14 PM
I would say it's more like a Dáil representative of a community that thinks it knows what it doesn't want but has no idea what it does want.
+1.
Be some sh1te talked over the next few days and weeks.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 12:26:21 PM
Early tally in Wexford:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcOHsatXEAAFGaO.jpg)
5 seats I think, so either Howlin or Wallace in trouble, or both!
Just on RTÉ that Howlin will top poll.
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 03:14:19 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 02:48:19 PM
All politics is local
One in all in: The Healy-Raes have a message for the "smart alecs in Dublin" (via @thejournal_ie) http://jrnl.ie/2628233 (http://jrnl.ie/2628233)
they are like a parody
Of what though?
The Dad??
Rural politicians in general?
Quote from: Maguire01 on February 27, 2016, 03:41:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 12:26:21 PM
Early tally in Wexford:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcOHsatXEAAFGaO.jpg)
5 seats I think, so either Howlin or Wallace in trouble, or both!
Just on RTÉ that Howlin will top poll.
Yea, obviously geographical vote at play in the early tallies.
One of the better tweets:
Brian Cowan @_briancowan 3m3 minutes ago
#GE16 Mary Lou looking very sweaty, did she take running for election literally?
This line of mixed messages etc is nonsense. The grand coalition was well flagged as a possible outcome so anyone who voted for either FF or FG did so with that knowledge
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 03:55:13 PM
This line of mixed messages etc is nonsense. The grand coalition was well flagged as a possible outcome so anyone who voted for either FF or FG did so with that knowledge
Especially if transfers break tradition and go from one to the other......
QuoteEspecially if transfers break tradition and go from one to the other......
Agreed
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Remember in the national interest
Arthur Beesley (@BeesleyIT)
27/02/2016, 16:07
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil sources admit coalition likely irishtimes.com/news/politics/... via IrishTimes
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
This is overlooked. If SF somehow formed a government the cost of running would rise instantly as bond yields rose.
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
INBOX: "BoyleSports Pay Out On Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil As Next Irish Government"
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 03:55:13 PM
This line of mixed messages etc is nonsense. The grand coalition was well flagged as a possible outcome so anyone who voted for either FF or FG did so with that knowledge
Actually Fine Gael was clear to their voters they would not go into coalition with FF. The Irish people have voted FG and Labour out and if numbers work voted for a rainbow of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Fein and like minded independents.
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2016, 04:37:48 PM
INBOX: "BoyleSports Pay Out On Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil As Next Irish Government"
FF won't do it if they think there is a chance of more seats in another election later in the year. But if they are happy with what they have this time, ie behind FG but ahead of SF, then they might actually bite the bullet. I think Kenny won't want it, but a lot of his party might. And Kenny is on thinning ice all the time.
So maybe......
Willie O'D says they can't leave opposition to the Shinners.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Coveney: Limited options in forming next govt, he added there's a responsibility to do what's right for the country
The lads will do anything to keep SF out
Doing what is right for the country is the purest plámás. Just look at the state of the PS or the health service.
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Great. So will you tell the EU, US, ECB etc, or will I?
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:23:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Great. So will you tell the EU, US, ECB etc, or will I?
We are due a change in economic system anyway now that growth is finished. France and Italy would be ultra supportive. The ECB is spoofing.
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:26:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:23:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Great. So will you tell the EU, US, ECB etc, or will I?
We are due a change in economic system anyway now that growth is finished. France and Italy would be ultra supportive. The ECB is spoofing.
You think France and Italy would want SF or the AAA-PBP in power in Dublin?
SFAAAPBP will probably have 30 seats.
How will they form a Government?
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:28:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:26:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:23:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Great. So will you tell the EU, US, ECB etc, or will I?
We are due a change in economic system anyway now that growth is finished. France and Italy would be ultra supportive. The ECB is spoofing.
You think France and Italy would want SF or the AAA-PBP in power in Dublin?
Where did Renzi come from? People all over Europe are sick of failed elites imposing failed policies. Look at hollande's poll numbers. Taking orders from the markets is a dead end for growth.
Quote from: Rossfan on February 27, 2016, 05:36:27 PM
SFAAAPBP will probably have 30 seats.
How will they form a Government?
ask Muppet
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:38:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:28:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:26:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:23:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Great. So will you tell the EU, US, ECB etc, or will I?
We are due a change in economic system anyway now that growth is finished. France and Italy would be ultra supportive. The ECB is spoofing.
You think France and Italy would want SF or the AAA-PBP in power in Dublin?
Where did Renzi come from? People all over Europe are sick of failed elites imposing failed policies. Look at hollande's poll numbers. Taking orders from the markets is a dead end for growth.
Hollande's policies are pretty reasonable, even his tax policies wouldn't be THAT controversial in Ireland. He has targeted those earning over €150k somewhat and particularly those earning over €1m. He even lowered Corporation tax (albeit to 30%).
He is a long way to the right of some of our left, e.g. proposing an annual wealth tax of 5%.
Much of our left will be viewed as extremists abroad, like Syriza. Hollande is nothing of the sort.
This is just cruel. :D
Labour bingo:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcPW1qDWIAAZysB.jpg)
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:49:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:38:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:28:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:26:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 05:23:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:25:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 04:06:39 PM
Another consideration is a complete variable, i.e. the reaction of the EU, US, Eurozone, IMF etc to talk of a far-left party in Government in Dublin. But if that is mooted expect some reaction.
Why not? QE doesn't work. Giving money to the rich doesn't work. They won't invest it. They just speculate it. Only way to get growth going is to build social housing and give serious pay rises to workers. PBP make more economic sense these days than FG.
I'm not sure what you are responding to. We still have to borrow money to function. Rightly or wrongly, the international community can and often does strong-arm countries when they don't like an election result, and given our debt they have plenty of leverage.
The right wing approach has been tried since 2011 or 2008 or whenever you fancy and it doesn't work. Bailing out the bondholders didn't work. Euro zone deflation is 0.3%. PBP would be classed as not serious but their economic policies would be more rational than FG's.
Great. So will you tell the EU, US, ECB etc, or will I?
We are due a change in economic system anyway now that growth is finished. France and Italy would be ultra supportive. The ECB is spoofing.
You think France and Italy would want SF or the AAA-PBP in power in Dublin?
Where did Renzi come from? People all over Europe are sick of failed elites imposing failed policies. Look at hollande's poll numbers. Taking orders from the markets is a dead end for growth.
Hollande's policies are pretty reasonable, even his tax policies wouldn't be THAT controversial in Ireland. He has targeted those earning over €150k somewhat and particularly those earning over €1m. He even lowered Corporation tax (albeit to 30%).
He is a long way to the right of some of our left, e.g. proposing an annual wealth tax of 5%.
Much of our left will be viewed as extremists abroad, like Syriza. Hollande is nothing of the sort.
It is not working for France. His poll numbers are appalling. His inability to reduce unemployment is fodder for the FN. A wealth tax would be a super idea if the money was allocated to social housing. Taxing the rich might even help them. Continuing along the current path leads to deflation and debt writeoffs.
Japan have been doing it for decades.
We have lots of road to kick the can yet. Don't expect the people in power to put their hands up and walk away.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 06:46:46 PM
Japan have been doing it for decades.
We have lots of road to kick the can yet. Don't expect the people in power to put their hands up and walk away.
No government in Belgium for a over a year
they got on fine
It would save a ball of money - no ministers pay!
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 27, 2016, 06:58:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 06:46:46 PM
Japan have been doing it for decades.
We have lots of road to kick the can yet. Don't expect the people in power to put their hands up and walk away.
No government in Belgium for a over a year
they got on fine
It would save a ball of money - no ministers pay!
Good idea.
No new ministerial pensions either. I like it.
(https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/v/t1.0-9/12718049_1208377155840923_4045594204683380584_n.jpg?oh=f0fc6575839538a98b4eeab4190eaa33&oe=57578A55)
PMSL
This is not photoshopped, it is real!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcPu5aHWwAAzIbD.jpg:large)
Twitter saying Shatter is gone.
Not all bad news. :D
Speaks volumes for Tipp people
No comment.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcPz9lEWwAABLU_.jpg:large)
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 27, 2016, 08:05:26 PM
Speaks volumes for Tipp people
Beyond belief really.
You either have been bought off or have an IQ of under 60 to vote for that guy.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 08:18:39 PM
No comment.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcPz9lEWwAABLU_.jpg:large)
The wicker man remake in Healy-Rae country. They'll be able to give themselves a big Bord Scannan tax free grant.
ps - Is that Jimmy Savile in the line on the right?
Looks like a picture from the Kute Kuntz Klan.
Frankie McBrearty Jr not a happy camper in Donegal.
Quote from: Tony Baloney on February 27, 2016, 08:37:20 PM
Frankie McBrearty Jr not a happy camper in Donegal.
Yeah. Loved the response al right. ;D
He should talk to Lowry.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 02:00:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 01:58:23 PM
Mayo used to have 6 seats and now is down to 4. Apart from the chunk of South Mayo that was grafted on to Galway West are any.other bits of the county missing from the constituency?
Dunno.
Emigration is probably the biggest factor. Donegal & Kerry also losing seats.
Electorate is 93k. 20k per seat. Should be a 5 seater. Loads of jiggery pokery to give Roscommon (electorate 45k ) 3 seats. Taking south mayo out was the difference.
Not that Mayo would steal from Roscommon, of course.
Lucinda gone👍
Well Meath East is now FF 1 FG2 so Regina saw the Shinners off
Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.
The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.
bye bye lucinda
delighted for ya!
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 09:56:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 02:00:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 01:58:23 PM
Mayo used to have 6 seats and now is down to 4. Apart from the chunk of South Mayo that was grafted on to Galway West are any.other bits of the county missing from the constituency?
Dunno.
Emigration is probably the biggest factor. Donegal & Kerry also losing seats.
Electorate is 93k. 20k per seat. Should be a 5 seater. Loads of jiggery pokery to give Roscommon (electorate 45k ) 3 seats. Taking south mayo out was the difference.
Roscommon is in with east galway
Galway is a very large county with a big population
whereas Roscommon, well, isn't.
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 28, 2016, 01:37:40 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 09:56:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 02:00:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2016, 01:58:23 PM
Mayo used to have 6 seats and now is down to 4. Apart from the chunk of South Mayo that was grafted on to Galway West are any.other bits of the county missing from the constituency?
Dunno.
Emigration is probably the biggest factor. Donegal & Kerry also losing seats.
Electorate is 93k. 20k per seat. Should be a 5 seater. Loads of jiggery pokery to give Roscommon (electorate 45k ) 3 seats. Taking south mayo out was the difference.
Roscommon is in with east galway
Galway is a very large county with a big population
whereas Roscommon, well, isn't.
Sligo Leitrim has 4 seats and an electorate of 94k. Mayo has 4 seats and an electorate of 93 k. Together the electorate is 187k. That means 9 seats. Not 8. Connacht should go to the Supreme Court.
The Constitution allows for seats up to 30,000 in size. Given the requirement to have boundaries adhere to some kind of natural hinterland rather than snake - or salamander, if you prefer - their way around the landscape, Connacht would likely lose if it went to the Supreme Court in Dublin. Insert obvious joke here.
Great news on lucifer creighton .
Driving fg into a coalition with Ff is a good plan for the left and Sinn Fein heading that opposition . But how on earth they can do it is beyond belief considering enda said 12 times pre election there was no chance of it happening and Martin also saying no way . I'm not surprised it's going to happen but it doesn't stop me thinking of how much bullshit is said pre election , how one party can base a lot of their campaign on showing how a party is not fit for govt and then go to bed with them after epitomises the sheer lies and hypocrisy our politics stands for. Would all traditional ff and fg voters of voted for their party if they knew what was going to happen (coalition of said parties) . Paddy power knew , 13/8 into 1/2 this week.
Who cares.
People have voted, politicians have to respect the vote and try to work something out
Politics and the country moves on
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 28, 2016, 09:57:36 AM
Who cares.
People have voted, politicians have to respect the vote and try to work something out
Politics and the country moves on
Who cares ! I do. This coalition makes a mockery of the pre election campaign of both parties. They lied again.
Quote from: larryin89 on February 28, 2016, 10:17:04 AM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 28, 2016, 09:57:36 AM
Who cares.
People have voted, politicians have to respect the vote and try to work something out
Politics and the country moves on
Who cares ! I do. This coalition makes a mockery of the pre election campaign of both parties. They lied again.
What do you suggest they do?
The curse of austerity strikes FG and Lab. Last time it hit FF and the Greens.
Government is a poisoned chalice. #Frankfurt's way
It looks like the Greens will get at least 2 seats
If there is a second election will any first timers who fail to get re elected qualify for a Dáil pension?
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2016, 12:34:07 AM
Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.
The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.
It illustrates that there are far too many TDs.
Where in the world can you get into Parliament with 1990 first pref votes.
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2016, 12:34:07 AM
Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.
The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.
It illustrates that there are far too many TDs.
Where in the world can you get into Parliament with 1990 first pref votes.
Err, Ireland it seems
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2016, 12:34:07 AM
Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.
The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.
It illustrates that there are far too many TDs.
Where in the world can you get into Parliament with 1990 first pref votes.
She got elected on the back of a plethora of Candidates with the same ideals and platforms as herself. Her natural vote was diluted initially, but returned after eliminations. If it was first past the post you'd have no voice for all those ideals.
Quote from: deiseach on February 28, 2016, 08:57:15 AM
The Constitution allows for seats up to 30,000 in size. Given the requirement to have boundaries adhere to some kind of natural hinterland rather than snake - or salamander, if you prefer - their way around the landscape, Connacht would likely lose if it went to the Supreme Court in Dublin. Insert obvious joke here.
I blame Roscommon. It's just very sloppy.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 28, 2016, 01:48:10 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2016, 12:34:07 AM
Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.
The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.
It illustrates that there are far too many TDs.
Where in the world can you get into Parliament with 1990 first pref votes.
She got elected on the back of a plethora of Candidates with the same ideals and platforms as herself. Her natural vote was diluted initially, but returned after eliminations. If it was first past the post you'd have no voice for all those ideals.
She ended up with less than 4000. You should need 10000 votes to get to the dail. There are county councils for local politics.
You might as well say that there are too many candidates. Quotas are 10000 odd, but some people are too lazy to vote down the ballot paper so the last candidates end up with less votes.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2016, 02:34:06 PM
You might as well say that there are too many candidates. Quotas are 10000 odd, but some people are too lazy to vote down the ballot paper so the last candidates end up with less votes.
If you halved the seats you would need twice the votes.
The turkeys arent going to vote for Christmas though.
Another blow to Kenny. 2 FF returned in Mayo.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 28, 2016, 03:53:04 PM
Another blow to Kenny. 2 FF returned in Mayo.
Not looking good for Johnno either. But FG get their second best ever showing apparently
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 03:36:28 PM
If you halved the seats you would need twice the votes.
The 26 counties has a broadly similar population per member as countries of comparable size like Finland. You seem to object to people getting in on transfers.
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 03:36:28 PM
The turkeys arent going to vote for Christmas though.
There are less seats in this Dail than the previous one.
2x FG in Galway West at the expense of SF. Catherine Connolly makes it over the line as well.
Roisin Shortall gave a good interview earlier on Radio 1. Explained in five minutes why Fine Gael and Labour collapsed. Arrogance on FG's part and Labour's cowardice in letting them get away it.
Quote from: mikehunt on February 28, 2016, 06:03:52 PM
Roisin Shortall gave a good interview earlier on Radio 1. Explained in five minutes why Fine Gael and Labour collapsed. Arrogance on FG's part and Labour's cowardice in letting them get away it.
Spent too much time worrying about the shinners and not enough on Fianna Fail. Re-emphasising the mess FF made when last in office would have been a better tactic.
That's if they hadn't already been planning for the big romantic reunion and handing joanie divorce papers.
Top 3 mental constituencies of 2016
3. Mayo - A timewarp. Sure isn't that the way we've always voted.
2. Kerry - Not just one but 2 cute hoors in first.
1. Tipperary - Let North Korea experiment it's atomic weapons here. Not just Lowry but keeping Alan Kelly in a job. Shameful.
honuorable mentions - Burton keeping her seat. Heather Humpries getting in on first count.
Who said the irish aren't stupid? They're dead wrong.
Quote from: foxcommander on February 28, 2016, 07:34:28 PM
Top 3 mental constituencies of 2016
3. Mayo - A timewarp. Sure isn't that the way we've always voted.
2. Kerry - Not just one but 2 cute hoors in first.
1. Tipperary - Let North Korea experiment it's atomic weapons here. Not just Lowry but keeping Alan Kelly in a job. Shameful.
honuorable mentions - Burton keeping her seat. Heather Humpries getting in on first count.
Who said the irish aren't stupid? They're dead wrong.
In order to not vote the way you always do, you need a decent alternative to vote for. Can you pick some one from the other chasing bunch that offered a decent alternative to the 4 candidates elected? Looking forward to your answer.
Some of the transfer outcomes are a head scratcher! Touch and go for MacLochlainn in Donegal. That will be a blow for SF if he loses out.
Edit: 12th count complete, Pringle 36 ahead
Quote from: AQMP on February 28, 2016, 08:33:47 PM
Some of the transfer outcomes are a head scratcher! Touch and go for MacLochlainn in Donegal. That will be a blow for SF if he loses out.
Edit: 12th count complete, Pringle 36 ahead
Would SF regard this election as a successful one or not? Their vote increased, but it was always going to anyway. I'd say they will be disappointed to be honest.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 28, 2016, 08:39:01 PM
Quote from: AQMP on February 28, 2016, 08:33:47 PM
Some of the transfer outcomes are a head scratcher! Touch and go for MacLochlainn in Donegal. That will be a blow for SF if he loses out.
Edit: 12th count complete, Pringle 36 ahead
Would SF regard this election as a successful one or not? Their vote increased, but it was always going to anyway. I'd say they will be disappointed to be honest.
There's an SF activist on Slugger O'Toole who's been predicting around 15% for SF for the last two weeks. Their own polling and canvassing was closer than other polls. Looks like they may end up with 23 (
though as I type it looks like MacLochlainn has lost) which again was in the region he was predicting. I think what they didn't see was the big swing back to FF. Also it looks like another election to me and that may not necessarily suit SF. A period in opposition to a Grand Coalition was their preferred outcome.
Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.
Quote from: T Fearon on February 28, 2016, 09:06:31 PM
Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.
The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2016, 09:11:28 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on February 28, 2016, 09:06:31 PM
Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.
The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else
Yeah but those something else don't want to be in government so that 50%, some knowingly, voted for a f**k you two but ask me again in 6 months. It's a bit like a lovers rebuff. Two questions:
On what grounds do FF/FG refuse to deal? Will it be longer term strategy or carving up a programme for government?
If they do fail to produce a coalition, who decides when we return to the polls and in what time frame does it look most likely?
Will a return to the polls produce a substantially different vote that will enhance the prospects of a stable government?
There's no real prospect of a government without FF or FG, no matter how many times they run an election. Anything else just involves too many small parties and independents, impossible to hold together.
A good election for SF I would think. They take a long term view.
Quote from: T Fearon on February 28, 2016, 09:06:31 PM
Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.
A second election is in the interest of the bigger parties. It allows them to fine tune their voter management / number of candidates. It does not suit the smaller parties or independents who do not have multiple candidates in a constituency though those who came close to a seat may gain votes from others who were well off the pace.
I predict a second election with marginal gains for FF/FG before the grand coalition.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 06:58:43 AM
A good election for SF I would think. They take a long term view.
once they rid of Gerry they might get a bigger vote
he is a terrible party leader
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2016, 09:11:28 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on February 28, 2016, 09:06:31 PM
Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.
The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else
Lisbon treaty
Quote from: rrhf on February 29, 2016, 08:16:58 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2016, 09:11:28 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on February 28, 2016, 09:06:31 PM
Confused about this other election.Apart from voter apathy,which will inevitably produce a lower turnout,would another election produce a substantially different result,and if not,would there be yet another election after that.
The big result from this election is the combined FG and FF around 50%. So half the electorate chose something else
Lisbon treaty
Also the crash and austerity. Working class voters are far less likely to vote FF or FG now.
FF and FG are now in a damned if they do and damned if they don't situation.
If they don't and we get another election a lot of people will blame them for the mess.
If they do then they are making the Slabs the only real opposition and alternative so when the floating and the fickle get pissed off they will flock to SF.
A lot of posturing over the next few weeks ::)
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 02:27:21 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 28, 2016, 01:48:10 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 28, 2016, 01:07:22 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2016, 12:34:07 AM
Maureen O'Sullivan getting in from 7th place on first prefs in Dublin Central does illustrate that PR sometimes does lead to a different result.
The other aspect of PR is that FF have 125% more seats than SF.
It illustrates that there are far too many TDs.
Where in the world can you get into Parliament with 1990 first pref votes.
She got elected on the back of a plethora of Candidates with the same ideals and platforms as herself. Her natural vote was diluted initially, but returned after eliminations. If it was first past the post you'd have no voice for all those ideals.
She ended up with less than 4000. You should need 10000 votes to get to the dail. There are county councils for local politics.
The reason Dublin Central's votes are so low is to do with the demographics, the constituencies are determined by the population irrespective of eligibility to vote. Because the inner city has a large non-national population its numbers are sufficient for three seats, but the electorate is a lot smaller and the turnout is one of the lowest in the country to boot, it's an unique case amongst the 40 constituencies.
It's fascinating. There is some squirming going on. They will be frantically trying to suss out now whether the majority in the country who are centre/centre right/centre left voted the way they did because they demand a government that represents that view, i.e. FF and FG, or did the majority vote the way they did because they are angry at FG and went back to FF, and don't want FG in power at all.
FF need to be careful here. Not only do they risk opening the opposition door for Sinn Fein, but they also risk losing their own recovery if they make the wrong decision here.
The Rte site is super. The drop in votes of the government parties was split between all the opposition rather than going in the main to FF. It is a big change for the political system.
Quote from: Owenmoresider on February 29, 2016, 09:20:46 AM
The reason Dublin Central's votes are so low is to do with the demographics, the constituencies are determined by the population irrespective of eligibility to vote. Because the inner city has a large non-national population its numbers are sufficient for three seats, but the electorate is a lot smaller and the turnout is one of the lowest in the country to boot, it's an unique case amongst the 40 constituencies.
That's the second time in the last week that you've posted something that sated the political junkie in me. Maith an fear.
Quote from: Owenmoresider on February 29, 2016, 09:20:46 AM
The reason Dublin Central's votes are so low is to do with the demographics, the constituencies are determined by the population irrespective of eligibility to vote. Because the inner city has a large non-national population its numbers are sufficient for three seats, but the electorate is a lot smaller and the turnout is one of the lowest in the country to boot, it's an unique case amongst the 40 constituencies.
Indeed that thought occurred to me, that the constituencies should be based on the number of Irish citizens, otherwise you get this type of variation.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 09:48:30 AM
The Rte site is super. The drop in votes of the government parties was split between all the opposition rather than going in the main to FF. It is a big change for the political system.
RTÉ give good service at elections, whatever their limitations in some other respects.
Looks like the Slashers have finally realised that they would be better off if Westmeath were just left in charge to make all the decisions. Lads, will ye have a word in the ear of the South Roscommon folk when ye get a minute.
FG actually got a decent vote. 50 something seats would usually be considered great for them. The Labour vote collapsed. And the Shinners are still toxic. That is why the results are a mess.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 11:55:41 AM
FG actually got a decent vote. 50 something seats would usually be considered great for them. The Labour vote collapsed. And the Shinners are still toxic. That is why the results are a mess.
If you look at the breakdown of the vote between right and left, the left only got about 30%.
Worse than that, when the public turned on the FG/Labour Government, they returned (incredibly) to FF rather than any of the alternatives.
I hope Adams doesn't resign, as he is a millstone for his party, but if SF have any real ambition in politics they should launch him.
Burton will have to go as will Kenny, but I suspect Adams will cling on for dear life.
Plenty of squirming for FF and FG for the next few weeks. The voters won't appreciate being asked to vote again as well FF and FG both know.
SF did extremely average imo in the election but would expect them to have smiles as wide as cheshire cats here. They can detach themselves from the impasse easily.
Have a hunch that this like the election in 2007 was the one to lose. Just a hunch mind. Serious storm clouds forming in the world economy.
You wouldn't be upright long if you were to play a drinking game where you had to have a shot everytime someone says "Civil War politics" over the next few weeks.
Quote from: Canalman on February 29, 2016, 01:13:32 PM
Plenty of squirming for FF and FG for the next few weeks. The voters won't appreciate being asked to vote again as well FF and FG both know.
SF did extremely average imo in the election but would expect them to have smiles as wide as cheshire cats here. They can detach themselves from the impasse easily.
I don't think they will get off that lightly by taking the easy option in opposition. FF, SF, AAA and a long line of independents all said they would get rid of Irish water among many other things in common. So will they not have the balls to all form a government now and do what they promised the people? If not, the narrative will quickly play out that on the 100th year anniversary of 1916, the people voted an absolute bunch of cowards to the Dail, more intent on doing what's best for their party than the country.
Quote from: weareros on February 29, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 29, 2016, 01:13:32 PM
Plenty of squirming for FF and FG for the next few weeks. The voters won't appreciate being asked to vote again as well FF and FG both know.
SF did extremely average imo in the election but would expect them to have smiles as wide as cheshire cats here. They can detach themselves from the impasse easily.
I don't think they will get off that lightly by taking the easy option in opposition. FF, SF, AAA and a long line of independents all said they would get rid of Irish water among many other things in common. So will they not have the balls to all form a government now and do what they promised the people? If not, the narrative will quickly play out that on the 100th year anniversary of 1916, the people voted an absolute bunch of cowards to the Dail, more intent on doing what's best for their party than the country.
They prefer to be hurlers on the ditch, griping about homelessness, queues in health etc while carefullly avoiding actually doing anything to solve these problems.
Someone on Boards.ie described the AAA and SF as like a dog that chases after a car, and when the car stops and they catch up they then wait for the car drive off agan so that they can chase after it yapping.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 11:55:41 AM
FG actually got a decent vote. 50 something seats would usually be considered great for them. The Labour vote collapsed. And the Shinners are still toxic. That is why the results are a mess.
FG are returning to their normal level. They had a boost last time round because people were annoyed with FF. I think a lot of those returned to FF rather than going to the newer parties. Still FF worst result apart from 2011.
Labour got a wallop (mostly from badly managed perception..).
There is also a definitive rise of independents but is it a cohesive "left"? I am not sure.
Within Independents there are some mainstream types (Naughten, Lowry, Healy-Reas, Ross and Social Democrats) and single issue types (Fitzmaurice, Harty). There are the cranks (Coppinger, Daly, Wallace).
To be honest I feel that given the implosion of incumbent government in this election the "left" have not necessarily done as well as they could have.
Seat-wise Shinners didn't do that well. Little new ground but well organised in key areas. Still a chance in LD-WH, Offaly breakthrough were bad. May work out well for them, if they end up a big fish in oppostion.
At end of the day, the big three took a whack but still represented the majority of people in the state.
/Jim.
Excellent comparison Armaghniac ;D
Meanwhile if the 2 big boys won't play together it's hard to see any one of them cobbling 80 votes together to get a Government.
FG/Rump of Labour/ Green/20 Indos...........
Most of the Indies are either left wing (the 2 Tipp lads, Wallace, Connolly, O Sullivan, Zappone, Daly) or anti corruption right wing (Ross and co). FG and FF stand for the same ould shite.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 03:03:00 PM
Most of the Indies are either left wing (the 2 Tipp lads, Wallace, Connolly, O Sullivan, Zappone, Daly) or anti corruption right wing (Ross and co). FG and FF stand for the same ould shite.
What left wing? Mattie McGrath left wing? Seamus Healy maybe, but Mattie is FF gene pool. Lowry is obviously not. Not sure Mick Wallace would be a socialist really.
FF and FG 'stand for' what most people in this country stand for I'd imagine. Slightly right of centre financially, slightly left of centre socially.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 03:03:00 PM
Most of the Indies are either left wing (the 2 Tipp lads, Wallace, Connolly, O Sullivan, Zappone, Daly) or anti corruption right wing (Ross and co). FG and FF stand for the same ould shite.
Well at least one Tipp independent is right wing pro corruption.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 29, 2016, 01:34:17 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 29, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 29, 2016, 01:13:32 PM
Plenty of squirming for FF and FG for the next few weeks. The voters won't appreciate being asked to vote again as well FF and FG both know.
SF did extremely average imo in the election but would expect them to have smiles as wide as cheshire cats here. They can detach themselves from the impasse easily.
I don't think they will get off that lightly by taking the easy option in opposition. FF, SF, AAA and a long line of independents all said they would get rid of Irish water among many other things in common. So will they not have the balls to all form a government now and do what they promised the people? If not, the narrative will quickly play out that on the 100th year anniversary of 1916, the people voted an absolute bunch of cowards to the Dail, more intent on doing what's best for their party than the country.
They prefer to be hurlers on the ditch, griping about homelessness, queues in health etc while carefullly avoiding actually doing anything to solve these problems.
Someone on Boards.ie described the AAA and SF as like a dog that chases after a car, and when the car stops and they catch up they then wait for the car drive off agan so that they can chase after it yapping.
What would you have them do from the opposition benches? Plenty of ideas have been put forward but ignored by FG. Sneering the opposition has been common place in the last Dail aided by the Clown Comhairle. Enda doesn't agree with the electorate but respects their right to be wrong. FG's ego has been massively deflated, no surprise they never get re-elected but doubt they'll learn.
Living in the US for longer that I care to admit, but a few comments.
When you see who gets elected in counties like Tipp Wexford, Kerry just to mention a few, you shake your head and wonder what the people who cast votes are really thinking. "Two creameries at the cross" politics still very evident.
The entire FF/FG daftness from my youth is long gone, where ejjits used to entirely lose the plot around election time and would almost be ready to bear arms or slashers such was the level of passion.
There appears to be shag all between, except that FF were in power when times were really good and abused the shite out of it. Would FG have been any different, who knows. I do hope they come together and help make the entire country prosper.
Problem is when you have a slew of independents who control the balance of power, very poor short-term decisions can be made based on that.
One thing that has me perplexed is that how there has been so little government financing for an Airport (Connaught) in an area that is still playing catch up to the rest of the country big time. It was a no brainer for FG and in particular Enda, as it is has the potential to be an incredible resource for the entire west, but it appears and I could be wrong on this, that they punted on it and instead gave a ton of support to Shannon.
It is also very apparent that there are more small shops and pubs closed in rural Ireland that there were thirty years ago. Not all the governments fault, but not sure will it change soon either.
Maybe only scratching the surface, but an observation from afar nonetheless.
Quote from: mikehunt on February 29, 2016, 03:36:54 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 29, 2016, 01:34:17 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 29, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 29, 2016, 01:13:32 PM
Plenty of squirming for FF and FG for the next few weeks. The voters won't appreciate being asked to vote again as well FF and FG both know.
SF did extremely average imo in the election but would expect them to have smiles as wide as cheshire cats here. They can detach themselves from the impasse easily.
I don't think they will get off that lightly by taking the easy option in opposition. FF, SF, AAA and a long line of independents all said they would get rid of Irish water among many other things in common. So will they not have the balls to all form a government now and do what they promised the people? If not, the narrative will quickly play out that on the 100th year anniversary of 1916, the people voted an absolute bunch of cowards to the Dail, more intent on doing what's best for their party than the country.
They prefer to be hurlers on the ditch, griping about homelessness, queues in health etc while carefullly avoiding actually doing anything to solve these problems.
Someone on Boards.ie described the AAA and SF as like a dog that chases after a car, and when the car stops and they catch up they then wait for the car drive off agan so that they can chase after it yapping.
What would you have them do from the opposition benches? Plenty of ideas have been put forward but ignored by FG. Sneering the opposition has been common place in the last Dail aided by the Clown Comhairle. Enda doesn't agree with the electorate but respects their right to be wrong. FG's ego has been massively deflated, no surprise they never get re-elected but doubt they'll learn.
At a minimum I would expect them to try to set out a list of deal breakers they would need to go into Government with FF or FG, not to blindly insist they will not go into government with either.
Quote from: LeoMc on February 29, 2016, 04:04:05 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on February 29, 2016, 03:36:54 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 29, 2016, 01:34:17 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 29, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Quote from: Canalman on February 29, 2016, 01:13:32 PM
Plenty of squirming for FF and FG for the next few weeks. The voters won't appreciate being asked to vote again as well FF and FG both know.
SF did extremely average imo in the election but would expect them to have smiles as wide as cheshire cats here. They can detach themselves from the impasse easily.
I don't think they will get off that lightly by taking the easy option in opposition. FF, SF, AAA and a long line of independents all said they would get rid of Irish water among many other things in common. So will they not have the balls to all form a government now and do what they promised the people? If not, the narrative will quickly play out that on the 100th year anniversary of 1916, the people voted an absolute bunch of cowards to the Dail, more intent on doing what's best for their party than the country.
They prefer to be hurlers on the ditch, griping about homelessness, queues in health etc while carefullly avoiding actually doing anything to solve these problems.
Someone on Boards.ie described the AAA and SF as like a dog that chases after a car, and when the car stops and they catch up they then wait for the car drive off agan so that they can chase after it yapping.
What would you have them do from the opposition benches? Plenty of ideas have been put forward but ignored by FG. Sneering the opposition has been common place in the last Dail aided by the Clown Comhairle. Enda doesn't agree with the electorate but respects their right to be wrong. FG's ego has been massively deflated, no surprise they never get re-elected but doubt they'll learn.
At a minimum I would expect them to try to set out a list of deal breakers they would need to go into Government with FF or FG, not to blindly insist they will not go into government with either.
If by "them" you mean Sinn Fein then both FG and FF have said they won't go in with them.
Quote from: joemamas on February 29, 2016, 03:57:06 PM
It is also very apparent that there are more small shops and pubs closed in rural Ireland that there were thirty years ago. Not all the governments fault, but not sure will it change soon either.
This is a particular bugbear of mine, and I think it almost had an effect on the election in my neck of the woods. There is something government can do - protect rural post offices. They may not be economically viable, but that is to miss the point. They provide a certain amount of traffic in an area that might keep the rural shop or pub open. The post office in the village of Bunmahon down the coast from me closed a while back and now there is no shop, even in the summer months, which has the knock-on impact on the tourism trade there, such as it was. During the life of the last government the post office in Kill closed and John Deasy, a man whose employment history is entirely down to his father's status as a former TD and government minister - Legislative Assistant in the United States Senate (http://www.johndeasytd.com/about.html), ffs - was quick to sneer at the complaints of the people of Kill. The post office wasn't viable and that was the end of the matter. I have no doubt that such an attitude contributed to the implosion of Deasy's campaign, which saw him make it home by about 500 votes ahead of Paudie Coffey, his outgoing FG colleague (ha!) despite being 1/80 with Paddy Power a few days before the election. Now, before anyone says 'the other lot are as bad', you'd be right. I believe FF closed down over 200 rural post offices in their last time in power, all sacrificed at the altar of cost-saving, as if a universal postal service is ever going to make money. No doubt they are hiding behind some diktat from Brussels, but I don't believe for one second that a case can't be made for the protection of such services, if the will was there. There is no will though, so wedded are all the mainstream parties to making Ireland a good place to do business. With all that in mind, is it any wonder people in Kerry are willing to vote for Healy-Rae in their tens of thousands? It's more surprising that more people don't do it!
That's the conundrum. You can't say you are focussing on national politics exclusively, for the good of the country, because these issues and locations are part of that country. If the Government(s) took rural issues seriously, there'd be no need for Michael Lowry or the Hyphens.
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2016, 08:18:39 PM
No comment.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcPz9lEWwAABLU_.jpg:large)
Starting to think Tony's new Northern Irishness thing might not be such a bad idea after all....
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 29, 2016, 04:46:55 PM
That's the conundrum. You can't say you are focussing on national politics exclusively, for the good of the country, because these issues and locations are part of that country. If the Government(s) took rural issues seriously, there'd be no need for Michael Lowry or the Hyphens.
The likes of the Healy Raes and Lowry's of this world are elected because "they get things done". Obviously this is done at a cost to somewhere else where "it doesn't get done". How do they get access to the resoures to get things done? Did the Healy Raes not get over 300k worth of state awarded contracts. If there's a conflict of interest then they should be out of the running. This doesn't just happen at local level, it happens at a national level as we seen with the numerous contracts awarded to O'Brien controlled companies. It needs to stop, we have gombeens at local and national level.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 29, 2016, 03:05:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 03:03:00 PM
Most of the Indies are either left wing (the 2 Tipp lads, Wallace, Connolly, O Sullivan, Zappone, Daly) or anti corruption right wing (Ross and co). FG and FF stand for the same ould shite.
What left wing? Mattie McGrath left wing? Seamus Healy maybe, but Mattie is FF gene pool. Lowry is obviously not. Not sure Mick Wallace would be a socialist really.
FF and FG 'stand for' what most people in this country stand for I'd imagine. Slightly right of centre financially, slightly left of centre socially.
Anyone advocating social housing is LW. You would think FF and FG would but they are wedded to neoliberalism.
Exactly. So what I'm saying is if the 'National' parties and more appropriately the 'Government' actually governed the whole country, you wouldn't have the rise of Rea-Nua. Like take away the whole 'Biddy needs a hip operation so bump her up the list' type stuff, and what do they 'get done'. They protect local post offices. They try and improve local infrastructure. They try and get local jobs. So on and so forth. Surely part of being the Government of a country means you should have a national strategy that looks at those things anyway, thereby taking most of the wind out of their sails.
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 05:06:33 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 29, 2016, 03:05:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 29, 2016, 03:03:00 PM
Most of the Indies are either left wing (the 2 Tipp lads, Wallace, Connolly, O Sullivan, Zappone, Daly) or anti corruption right wing (Ross and co). FG and FF stand for the same ould shite.
What left wing? Mattie McGrath left wing? Seamus Healy maybe, but Mattie is FF gene pool. Lowry is obviously not. Not sure Mick Wallace would be a socialist really.
FF and FG 'stand for' what most people in this country stand for I'd imagine. Slightly right of centre financially, slightly left of centre socially.
Anyone advocating social housing is LW. You would think FF and FG would but they are wedded to neoliberalism.
I suppose Wallace could be an Irish left winger as they don't believe in paying tax....
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 29, 2016, 05:07:14 PM
Exactly. So what I'm saying is if the 'National' parties and more appropriately the 'Government' actually governed the whole country, you wouldn't have the rise of Rea-Nua. Like take away the whole 'Biddy needs a hip operation so bump her up the list' type stuff, and what do they 'get done'. They protect local post offices. They try and improve local infrastructure. They try and get local jobs. So on and so forth. Surely part of being the Government of a country means you should have a national strategy that looks at those things anyway, thereby taking most of the wind out of their sails.
The problem is that much government is unprincipled. They set targets for things like ambulance coverage and then ignore the fact that they don't meet them. The doctor candidate in Clare reflects the fact that they can't be relied upon to meet coverage for things like GPs. A blind eye is turned to things like queues for hip operations, in part because TDs prefer to "fix things" rather than set up a proper system. Local councils have been emasculated so that you needn't be talking to your local counciller.
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 29, 2016, 05:07:14 PM
Exactly. So what I'm saying is if the 'National' parties and more appropriately the 'Government' actually governed the whole country, you wouldn't have the rise of Rea-Nua. Like take away the whole 'Biddy needs a hip operation so bump her up the list' type stuff, and what do they 'get done'. They protect local post offices. They try and improve local infrastructure. They try and get local jobs. So on and so forth. Surely part of being the Government of a country means you should have a national strategy that looks at those things anyway, thereby taking most of the wind out of their sails.
When they paid off the bondholders they cut themselves off
The problem is,and this is universal,Governments exert little influence over many facets of life.In the UK,Hospital Consultants and the Doctor's Union,BMA, run the NHS, and threaten strikes etc if they don't get their way.They can also sway public opinion very easily as well.Similarly policing in constrained by all sorts of human rights issues etc.
You are completely wrong about the nhs. Pen pushing politicians run it and that is why it is in the mess it is in and getting worse. Doctors swing public opinion by telling the truth which is something jeremy hunt wouldn't know if it jumped up and bit him. The nhs story from the tories is all smoke and mirrors.
T stands for Thatcherite.
Thatcherite Fearon ;D
Quote from: armaghniac on February 29, 2016, 05:25:18 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on February 29, 2016, 05:07:14 PM
Exactly. So what I'm saying is if the 'National' parties and more appropriately the 'Government' actually governed the whole country, you wouldn't have the rise of Rea-Nua. Like take away the whole 'Biddy needs a hip operation so bump her up the list' type stuff, and what do they 'get done'. They protect local post offices. They try and improve local infrastructure. They try and get local jobs. So on and so forth. Surely part of being the Government of a country means you should have a national strategy that looks at those things anyway, thereby taking most of the wind out of their sails.
The problem is that much government is unprincipled. They set targets for things like ambulance coverage and then ignore the fact that they don't meet them. The doctor candidate in Clare reflects the fact that they can't be relied upon to meet coverage for things like GPs. A blind eye is turned to things like queues for hip operations, in part because TDs prefer to "fix things" rather than set up a proper system. Local councils have been emasculated so that you needn't be talking to your local counciller.
the ROI is so centralised. Local councils have no power. There is no reason for this in 2016.
Politicians have f..k all to say about the NHS.Waiting lists are caused by consultants prioritising private work,anything the Govt tries to do is opposed unless the BMA approves.All the govt does is hand over piles of dosh
Micky Martin wants a load of Dàil reform before Government negotiations begin.
Presumably he's still looking at being in some kind of benign opposition?
Nonsense tony. Politicians are driving consultants into private work.
Politicians have everything to do with waiting lists.
How? They provide ample cash already.Consultants prioritise their private work.
Maybe some do but not the ones i know.
The tories are pushing a lot towards private work.
If you believe half of what hunt says you are easily led.
Quote from: T Fearon on February 29, 2016, 07:11:53 PM
How? They provide ample cash already.Consultants prioritise their private work.
Maybe if the actual Doctors and Nurses (including consultants) were paid what they are worth and less was spent on admin it would improve the service.
Looks like SF are going to be squeezed out in Longford Wmeath and Mitchell in Dublin Bay North needs a healthy transfer from AAA-PBP's John Lyons to get through. That's going to be tight. The difference between the exit polls and their actual vote equates to around about 4-5 seats.
Edit: Mitchell of SF elected with two independents. Aodhan O Riordain misses out
Enough of this British Health Service crisis and get back to the subject of the thread.
FF seem to want a Govt administered by FG and others but with FF having a veto on everything.
I expect they will keep such a lame duck thing running till the October 2017 budget where they will pull the plug on some populist issue.
Meanwhile there could be some interesting discussions in FG one of which will no doubt be Enda's retirement date.
Do the remains of Labour go into the lame duck Govt or try to rebuild and steal some thunder from SF in opposition?
FG should go into Gov with SF and start building 20k social houses a year to generate real growth cross country. They can borrow at 1%. Ignoring SF means ignoring 40% of Done gal and Louth and a lot of working people.
Quote from: seafoid on March 01, 2016, 02:41:14 PM
FG should go into Gov with SF and start building 20k social houses a year to generate real growth cross country. They can borrow at 1%. Ignoring SF means ignoring 40% of Done gal and Louth and a lot of working people.
Or 27% of Donegal perhaps.
Borrowing at1% if they can get the rents from these houses to pay it back. Can they?
Quote from: armaghniac on March 01, 2016, 03:26:12 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 01, 2016, 02:41:14 PM
FG should go into Gov with SF and start building 20k social houses a year to generate real growth cross country. They can borrow at 1%. Ignoring SF means ignoring 40% of Done gal and Louth and a lot of working people.
Or 27% of Donegal perhaps.
Borrowing at1% if they can get the rents from these houses to pay it back. Can they?
Think of how much they are paying in rent for 60,000 families already. Social housing would generate a lot of employment and tax revenue. If they wait a few months they can borrow at minus rates.
Quote from: seafoid on March 01, 2016, 02:41:14 PM
FG should go into Gov with SF and start building 20k social houses a year to generate real growth cross country. They can borrow at 1%. Ignoring SF means ignoring 40% of Done gal and Louth and a lot of working people.
27.5% in Donegal and 28.9% in Louth. Not that it really matters if it was 40%, because this is a national election, so people in one constituency are no more or no less important than those in others.
Anyway, SF has said it won't go into government with FF or FG. It has effectively ruled itself out of government. It could compromise on a couple of issues in order to get in, for example, and sort out the housing crisis, but it isn't willing to do that. It's much easier to be in opposition and talk about what you could do, but won't.
Did Aodhan O Riordan get in?
Quote from: Farrandeelin on March 01, 2016, 08:26:06 PM
Did Aodhan O Riordan get in?
No
Labour are still on 6
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/
Quote from: seafoid on March 01, 2016, 08:38:19 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on March 01, 2016, 08:26:06 PM
Did Aodhan O Riordan get in?
No
Labour are still on 6
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/
Some good TDs lost from Labour. They were always going to take a hit, but they got no recognition for bringing the marriage referendum, and the likes of the 8th amendment issue will now most likely continue to be ignored. There is a need for a party on the left who also have a bit of pragmatism and will go into government, even if they only get bits of what they want, rather than sit on the fence and get nothing.
I gave labour appropriate recognition for their role in the marriage referendum.
The last Dáil didn't just have one opposition, it had at least 4 oppositions. The media gave all of them lots of air and column time which I don't recall happening as much before. Think of how much we heard from Wallace, Daly, Murphy, Boyd-Barrett etc, not to mention the worthwhile contribution of Catherine Murphy. And that is before you mention Martin and Adams who at least had some TDs behind them.
Even though the Government had a large majority, the majority of news coverage seemed to be opposition based.
I think this undemocratic, unbalanced coverage in favour of the easy attacks is likely to continue, so I can't see anyone being eager to join a Government as a smaller party for a while.
Quote from: muppet on March 01, 2016, 10:35:09 PM
The last Dáil didn't just have one opposition, it had at least 4 oppositions. The media gave all of them lots of air and column time which I don't recall happening as much before. Think of how much we heard from Wallace, Daly, Murphy, Boyd-Barrett etc, not to mention the worthwhile contribution of Catherine Murphy. And that is before you mention Martin and Adams who at least had some TDs behind them.
Even though the Government had a large majority, the majority of news coverage seemed to be opposition based.
I think this undemocratic, unbalanced coverage in favour of the easy attacks is likely to continue, so I can't see anyone being eager to join a Government as a smaller party for a while.
The media are attentive to their audiences and after the bondholder surrender a lot of people would have dropped their support. The thing that happens after an economic crash is the allocation of the losses and this makes politics volatile.
Ireland were always itching to get ff back in. Culturally but particularly for that feeling of reckless wealth creation. I think there's a strong chance ff will stay in opposition, sf will replace Adams when he has taken all the shit he can, Doherty / Mary Lou will take the party forward and both parties will sit together in government within 18 months.
QuoteEven though the Government had a large majority, the majority of news coverage seemed to be opposition based.
Jaysus Muppet for someone whose usually so exact and precise in your statements how in Gods name do you think the majority of news coverage
seemed to be opposition based.
Biggest media outlets in the country RTE and Sindo were ferociously pro Govt during the last 5 years. The other national radio stations are owned by the Maltese Falcon and NTs biggest rated show is fervently blue shirted.
The biggest story re Clare Daly was when the Gardaí and the media tried to stitch her up on the Drink Driving charge. Murphy did fantastic work on the siteserv stuff and I know Wallace is a serial tax evader but in terms of his work on NAMA he actually did some real public service work. And like it or not the anti water crew tapped into the public mood and generated large support for that campaign so it had to get coverage and I'm sure they'd argue that the coverage wasn't exactly even handed either.
Anyway With FG/FF receiving at least 94 seats - the Irish people overwhelming voted that they want ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to change
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on March 01, 2016, 08:26:06 PM
Did Aodhan O Riordan get in?
Thankfully not.
O'Riordan is the classic Irish pc nut. On the one hand he wanted to screen Catholics in the Irish civil service. On the other hand he wanted to bring in 20,000 unvetted migrants from the Middle East and North Africa.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/eamon-delaney-aodhan-is-a-victim-of-his-own-pc-crusades-29227753.html
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 08:16:09 AM
Anyway With FG/FF receiving at least 94 seats - the Irish people overwhelming voted that they want ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to change
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
The economy is moving very much in the right direction.
We are the fastest growing economy in the EU
Exports are up
FDI Investment into Ireland is up
Employment is up
Consumer spending is up
SF and AAA/PBP would put that at risk. They have managed to make being anti-business seem like a good thing to certain sections. And make people forget that it's business that creates jobs!
FF's stance on Irish Water is very disappointing. While there's been a plethora of mistakes, FF know that Irish Water is the right way to go. It needs to be centralised to improve the system and service, and charges need to be collected from the user. But they have to go against it to get votes and join the "let someone else pay for it" brigade.
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 08:16:09 AM
QuoteEven though the Government had a large majority, the majority of news coverage seemed to be opposition based.
Jaysus Muppet for someone whose usually so exact and precise in your statements how in Gods name do you think the majority of news coverage seemed to be opposition based.
Biggest media outlets in the country RTE and Sindo were ferociously pro Govt during the last 5 years. The other national radio stations are owned by the Maltese Falcon and NTs biggest rated show is fervently blue shirted.
The biggest story re Clare Daly was when the Gardaí and the media tried to stitch her up on the Drink Driving charge. Murphy did fantastic work on the siteserv stuff and I know Wallace is a serial tax evader but in terms of his work on NAMA he actually did some real public service work. And like it or not the anti water crew tapped into the public mood and generated large support for that campaign so it had to get coverage and I'm sure they'd argue that the coverage wasn't exactly even handed either.
Anyway With FG/FF receiving at least 94 seats - the Irish people overwhelming voted that they want ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to change
I'll rephrase, there appeared to be a disproportionate amount of coverage given to, for example, PBP even though they only had a few seats. Daly and Wallace also got massive coverage. That is not saying it was all positive coverage, it was the volume of coverage I was referring to.
One the one hand you had (some) positive coverage of the Government, on the other you had almost daily criticism from Martin and FF, from Adams and SF, from Joe Higgins, from Boyd-Barrett, from Paul Murphy, from Shane Ross etc. It gave the impression of a huge opposition in the Dáil, when in fact it was a small opposition.
Part of this was the Government's own fault for not putting out enough spokespeople to argue their case.
Quote from: Hound on March 02, 2016, 11:15:38 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 08:16:09 AM
Anyway With FG/FF receiving at least 94 seats - the Irish people overwhelming voted that they want ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to change
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
The economy is moving very much in the right direction.
We are the fastest growing economy in the EU
Exports are up
FDI Investment into Ireland is up
Employment is up
Consumer spending is up
SF and AAA/PBP would put that at risk. They have managed to make being anti-business seem like a good thing to certain sections. And make people forget that it's business that creates jobs!
FF's stance on Irish Water is very disappointing. While there's been a plethora of mistakes, FF know that Irish Water is the right way to go. It needs to be centralised to improve the system and service, and charges need to be collected from the user. But they have to go against it to get votes and join the "let someone else pay for it" brigade.
My dear Enda, they didn't swallow that guff on Feb 26th, nothing has changed since then. It was guff then and it's guff now.
Quote from: Hound on March 02, 2016, 11:15:38 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 08:16:09 AM
Anyway With FG/FF receiving at least 94 seats - the Irish people overwhelming voted that they want ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to change
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
The economy is moving very much in the right direction.
We are the fastest growing economy in the EU
Exports are up
FDI Investment into Ireland is up
Employment is up
Consumer spending is up
SF and AAA/PBP would put that at risk. They have managed to make being anti-business seem like a good thing to certain sections. And make people forget that it's business that creates jobs!
FF's stance on Irish Water is very disappointing. While there's been a plethora of mistakes, FF know that Irish Water is the right way to go. It needs to be centralised to improve the system and service, and charges need to be collected from the user. But they have to go against it to get votes and join the "let someone else pay for it" brigade.
Growth figures do have something important to say but they need to widened.
Should also include,
corporate tax avoidance figures going up,
corporate tax receipts going down,
income inequality going up,
education expenditure still 60% of oecd average.
so on and so forth.
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 12:59:09 PM
Growth figures do have something important to say but they need to widened.
Should also include,
corporate tax avoidance figures going up,
corporate tax receipts going down,
income inequality going up,
education expenditure still 60% of oecd average.
so on and so forth.
Irish corporate tax receipts were way up in 2015 - almost 3 billion:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-tax-idUKKBN0TL1XK20151202
Curious about OECD - every OECD reports shows we spend more per student than most countries. Even in 2015, we were ranked 10th amongst OECD countries.
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
(http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--YkJK8LUP--/lmhlajtdc8bi2l1spw5q.jpg)
The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 02:29:35 PM
The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?
Too true, too true. No way EU will allow this to continue. A Brexit might see our main exporter imposing tariffs and duties on our exports.
I'll tell you what will happen in a decade or so if the FDI low corporation guys depart (and as sure as night follows day they will) ................ we'll have the economists ranting and raving at how we allowed our economic wellbeing to be so tied up in one sector. ( like we were in the construction industry not so long ago).
Serious trouble ahead imo.
Ye should all be in government lads :)
If I were the Returning Officer in Longford-Westmeath I'd start the count for the next election now!
Quote from: AQMP on March 02, 2016, 04:44:11 PM
If I were the Returning Officer in Longford-Westmeath I'd start the count for the next election now!
Shouldn't it really be Recounting Officer?
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 02:29:35 PM
The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?
Brexit looks like it won't happen. The Government needs a more balanced economic strategy than 12.5% that benefits more of the country.
Quote from: Canalman on March 02, 2016, 02:38:46 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 02:29:35 PM
The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?
Too true, too true. No way EU will allow this to continue. A Brexit might see our main exporter imposing tariffs and duties on our exports.
I'll tell you what will happen in a decade or so if the FDI low corporation guys depart (and as sure as night follows day they will) ................ we'll have the economists ranting and raving at how we allowed our economic wellbeing to be so tied up in one sector. ( like we were in the construction industry not so long ago).
Serious trouble ahead imo.
Utter nonsense.
Brexit would increase FDI into Ireland
And there is absolutely no threat to Ireland's 12.5% rate! (Apart from SF/PBP maybe)
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
Quote from: weareros on March 02, 2016, 01:54:33 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 12:59:09 PM
Growth figures do have something important to say but they need to widened.
Should also include,
corporate tax avoidance figures going up,
corporate tax receipts going down,
income inequality going up,
education expenditure still 60% of oecd average.
so on and so forth.
Irish corporate tax receipts were way up in 2015 - almost 3 billion:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-tax-idUKKBN0TL1XK20151202
Curious about OECD - every OECD reports shows we spend more per student than most countries. Even in 2015, we were ranked 10th amongst OECD countries.
You're right about 2015 corporate unexpected spike in receipts.
The education figures I saw were based on actual cash expenditure on education per capita.
Not the usual reports based on % of GDP or % of public expenditure.
I'll find what I came across, later on this evening.
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
To generate growth. There is no point in following neoliberal claptrap. Social housing makes people economically more efficient when it is done properly. In a few months the Gov will be able to borrow at minis one percent.
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
20,000 houses @ 150k = 3Bn.
Saving of 20,000 rent supplements @ €500 per month = € 120m per annum
Income of 20,000 Council rents@ €30 per week = €31.2 m per annum
Expenditure - Interest @1% = €30m p.a.
Would be "cost neutral" after 25 years.
It'd be some house if it cost €150k to build.you could cut that in half and you'd probably be closer to the figure.
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 07:01:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
To generate growth. There is no point in following neoliberal claptrap. Social housing makes people economically more efficient when it is done properly. In a few months the Gov will be able to borrow at minis one percent.
Putting the word neoliberal into every post isn't really an argument.
Here is our national debt: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland (http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland)
Watch it for a minute. It isn't neoliberalism to want to avoid bankruptcy.
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 06:39:13 PM
Quote from: weareros on March 02, 2016, 01:54:33 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 12:59:09 PM
Growth figures do have something important to say but they need to widened.
Should also include,
corporate tax avoidance figures going up,
corporate tax receipts going down,
income inequality going up,
education expenditure still 60% of oecd average.
so on and so forth.
Irish corporate tax receipts were way up in 2015 - almost 3 billion:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-tax-idUKKBN0TL1XK20151202
Curious about OECD - every OECD reports shows we spend more per student than most countries. Even in 2015, we were ranked 10th amongst OECD countries.
You're right about 2015 corporate unexpected spike in receipts.
The education figures I saw were based on actual cash expenditure on education per capita.
Not the usual reports based on % of GDP or % of public expenditure.
I'll find what I came across, later on this evening.
Corporate tax went up because corporations' profits went up!
Increased profits from Irish companies and increased FDI
More and more North American MNCs choosing Ireland
IDA and Enterprise Ireland continuing to do great work, helped by sensible business friendly government policy.
Hence increased employment also
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 07:09:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
20,000 houses @ 150k = 3Bn.
Saving of 20,000 rent supplements @ €500 per month = € 120m per annum
Income of 20,000 Council rents@ €30 per week = €31.2 m per annum
Expenditure - Interest @1% = €30m p.a.
Would be "cost neutral" after 25 years.
Although it's not about how long it takes it to be 'cost neutral'. It's primarily about making sure that people have a home.
And that calculation doesn't take into account the income tax, corporation tax, VAT etc that would come back to the government from the 3Bn you quote as the cost to build the houses, and other benefits, such as job creation, reduction in unemployment (and benefits) etc.
Quote from: Hound on March 02, 2016, 07:26:20 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 06:39:13 PM
Quote from: weareros on March 02, 2016, 01:54:33 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 12:59:09 PM
Growth figures do have something important to say but they need to widened.
Should also include,
corporate tax avoidance figures going up,
corporate tax receipts going down,
income inequality going up,
education expenditure still 60% of oecd average.
so on and so forth.
Irish corporate tax receipts were way up in 2015 - almost 3 billion:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-tax-idUKKBN0TL1XK20151202
Curious about OECD - every OECD reports shows we spend more per student than most countries. Even in 2015, we were ranked 10th amongst OECD countries.
You're right about 2015 corporate unexpected spike in receipts.
The education figures I saw were based on actual cash expenditure on education per capita.
Not the usual reports based on % of GDP or % of public expenditure.
I'll find what I came across, later on this evening.
Corporate tax went up because corporations' profits went up!
Increased profits from Irish companies and increased FDI
More and more North American MNCs choosing Ireland
IDA and Enterprise Ireland continuing to do great work, helped by sensible business friendly government policy.
Hence increased employment also
Corporation tax is still a fraction of Income Tax. Income taxes are way too high, especially considering some of the rubbish public services were get in return.
Quote from: east down gael on March 02, 2016, 07:19:27 PM
It'd be some house if it cost €150k to build.you could cut that in half and you'd probably be closer to the figure.
Cost of buying the land, developing it with roads, sewers, water mains etc.
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 08:13:52 PM
Quote from: east down gael on March 02, 2016, 07:19:27 PM
It'd be some house if it cost €150k to build.you could cut that in half and you'd probably be closer to the figure.
Cost of buying the land, developing it with roads, sewers, water mains etc.
Councils own lots of land
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 07:21:58 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 07:01:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
To generate growth. There is no point in following neoliberal claptrap. Social housing makes people economically more efficient when it is done properly. In a few months the Gov will be able to borrow at minis one percent.
Putting the word neoliberal into every post isn't really an argument.
Here is our national debt: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland (http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland)
Watch it for a minute. It isn't neoliberalism to want to avoid bankruptcy.
Without growth it won't be possible to pay off the debt. I think a lot of debt might be written off anyway. Most of the stuff bought by the ECB for example.
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 06:39:13 PM
Quote from: weareros on March 02, 2016, 01:54:33 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 02, 2016, 12:59:09 PM
Growth figures do have something important to say but they need to widened.
Should also include,
corporate tax avoidance figures going up,
corporate tax receipts going down,
income inequality going up,
education expenditure still 60% of oecd average.
so on and so forth.
Irish corporate tax receipts were way up in 2015 - almost 3 billion:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-tax-idUKKBN0TL1XK20151202
Curious about OECD - every OECD reports shows we spend more per student than most countries. Even in 2015, we were ranked 10th amongst OECD countries.
You're right about 2015 corporate unexpected spike in receipts.
The education figures I saw were based on actual cash expenditure on education per capita.
Not the usual reports based on % of GDP or % of public expenditure.
I'll find what I came across, later on this evening.
What I came across this morning were oecd figures for public and private funding of 2nd and 3rd level,
and the figures I referenced were only for private funding which is well below oecd ave.
But the the public funding for education is as you understand.
Mea culpa and thanks for the correction.
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 09:43:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 07:21:58 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 07:01:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
To generate growth. There is no point in following neoliberal claptrap. Social housing makes people economically more efficient when it is done properly. In a few months the Gov will be able to borrow at minis one percent.
Putting the word neoliberal into every post isn't really an argument.
Here is our national debt: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland (http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland)
Watch it for a minute. It isn't neoliberalism to want to avoid bankruptcy.
Without growth it won't be possible to pay off the debt. I think a lot of debt might be written off anyway. Most of the stuff bought by the ECB for example.
This is half of the problem.
The other half is that if you don't pay off the debt, you won't be able to borrow.
Catch 22 of the ECB Guide to the Galaxy.
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 09:41:03 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 08:13:52 PM
Quote from: east down gael on March 02, 2016, 07:19:27 PM
It'd be some house if it cost €150k to build.you could cut that in half and you'd probably be closer to the figure.
Cost of buying the land, developing it with roads, sewers, water mains etc.
Councils own lots of land
They had to buy it at some stage ;)
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 10:36:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 09:43:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 07:21:58 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 07:01:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
To generate growth. There is no point in following neoliberal claptrap. Social housing makes people economically more efficient when it is done properly. In a few months the Gov will be able to borrow at minis one percent.
Putting the word neoliberal into every post isn't really an argument.
Here is our national debt: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland (http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland)
Watch it for a minute. It isn't neoliberalism to want to avoid bankruptcy.
Without growth it won't be possible to pay off the debt. I think a lot of debt might be written off anyway. Most of the stuff bought by the ECB for example.
This is half of the problem.
The other half is that if you don't pay off the debt, you won't be able to borrow.
Catch 22 of the ECB Guide to the Galaxy.
If you defaulted I bet the market would forget it. There is a savings glut. The Irish 10 year yield is 1% which is insane. Anything with a pulse. Markets assume no default which is probably wrong.
I am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 10:57:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 10:36:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 09:43:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 07:21:58 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 07:01:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 06:25:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 06:02:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2016, 01:54:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2016, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 09:54:17 AM
What would the change have been to?
Sinn Féin and loony left running wild for a year fighting the EU/ECB till reality would hit home.
SF and LL building 20 k social houses. Doing anything else would be loony. Neoliberalism is a waste of time.
Who would pay for these houses?
The gov could charge rents. How much is it paying private landlords and hotels/bnb's at the moment? It can borrow money for nothing to create jobs.
This is the political equivalent of an oxymoron. It doesn't make sense to charge rents of people to whom it already pays rent allowances.
And as for the 2nd point, you really want our Government to borrow more money?
To generate growth. There is no point in following neoliberal claptrap. Social housing makes people economically more efficient when it is done properly. In a few months the Gov will be able to borrow at minis one percent.
Putting the word neoliberal into every post isn't really an argument.
Here is our national debt: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland (http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland)
Watch it for a minute. It isn't neoliberalism to want to avoid bankruptcy.
Without growth it won't be possible to pay off the debt. I think a lot of debt might be written off anyway. Most of the stuff bought by the ECB for example.
This is half of the problem.
The other half is that if you don't pay off the debt, you won't be able to borrow.
Catch 22 of the ECB Guide to the Galaxy.
If you defaulted I bet the market would forget it. There is a savings glut. The Irish 10 year yield is 1% which is insane. Anything with a pulse. Markets assume no default which is probably wrong.
Maybe.
Maybe not: http://www.voanews.com/content/argentina-creditors-settle-fourteen-years-default-billions/3213996.html (http://www.voanews.com/content/argentina-creditors-settle-fourteen-years-default-billions/3213996.html)
Our best time to do a deal was before the Guarantee and our last chance went when Honohan cut the legs from under Lenihan. But it is way, way too late now.
We will pay it back unless our economy collapses. Meanwhile borrowing more is crazy talk, although it might help the collapse if that is what you want.
As mentioned above, we need massive PS reform. We don't get value for money and this needs to change.
But to be fair when you see what we elect, it is a wonder we don't all blow away in a storm.
Irish bond yields ( all euro bonds in the main ) are low because the ECb are underwriting by secondary buying .
I see Sinn Fein voted against having an opposition in Stormont, while at the same time looking to lead an opposition in the Dail.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/mlas-back-plans-for-a-stormont-opposition-as-sinn-fein-warns-against-creating-frankensteins-monster-34503620.html
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 11:03:12 PM
I am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.
Disappointing from FF, but can't blame them. SF/PBP have a huge element of the population convinced that someone else should pay for their water
Quote from: ashman on March 03, 2016, 01:31:43 AM
Irish bond yields ( all euro bonds in the main ) are low because the ECb are underwriting by secondary buying .
also because of deflation..
20k houses at 100k each would cost 20 million in interest per year. The gov could get pension funds to fund them over 30 years. Imagination.The savings glut makes a lot of things possible.
FG must have lost votes because of the Man Utd situation.
QuoteI am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.
Yes, one would consider emigration listening to the radio these days. We are a country overflowing with gombeens and parasites.
Quote from: highorlow on March 03, 2016, 08:54:16 AM
QuoteI am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.
Yes, one would consider emigration listening to the radio these days. We are a country overflowing with gombeens and parasites.
RTE rarely look at systemic issues. Their default setting is "everything is grand. Over to Con for the sport"
Quote from: seafoid on March 03, 2016, 09:25:01 AM
RTE rarely look at systemic issues. Their default setting is "everything is grand. Over to Con for the rugby"
Fixed that for you.
Willie Penrose takes the last seat in LD/WH.
Labour now have the magic 7 while the Larries have no TD.
Take that Shamrock Shore!!! :P
Interesting take from McWilliams
The three most pressing issues that will top new government's to-do list
No matter who forms the next government, three major external issues are likely to dictate the economic agenda for the next few years. All these issues challenge Irish conventional wisdom and they will be difficult to tackle.
Unfortunately, the ability of Irish policymakers to question conventional wisdom is not something you would bet on.
Let's deal with each challenge in turn. First, we will see a dramatic change in our relations with the EU. At its most basic, the point is that no Irish policymaker seriously imagined being in a union with Germany and France, never mind Italy or Spain, without Britain.
The working assumption was always that Britain would join the euro, but that didn't work out, leaving Ireland in the ridiculous position of using a German currency but remaining firmly in an Anglo – or, at least, Anglo/American – economic cycle. This inappropriate currency arrangement has resulted in massive economic instability. In the 15 years of using the euro, Ireland experienced a massive boom and a massive bust, the polar opposite to stability.
If the British leave the EU, Ireland can't allow itself to be bullied by the rest of the EU in the EU's consequent dealing with Britain. If the EU reacts to a 'British Out' vote by imposing trade or investment barriers with Britain or barriers to the free movement of people with Britain, we will simply have to veto these moves or negotiate an opt-out.
It is not feasible that we treat our biggest trading partner in the same way as Lithuania or Poland might treat the UK. Ireland and Britain are intertwined, with a land border and a shared island. It is not feasible for us to go along with continental reactions to a 'British Out' if those reactions are not in our national interest. If the EU gets vindictive, Ireland will have to get assertive. Whether we like it our not, Ireland's national interest regarding Brexit is not the same as Italy's or Spain's, never mind Poland's or Germany's.
Our national interest is a special relationship with the UK; end of story. That's the first piece of realpolitik our 1916 celebrants will have to digest.
The second bit is that without the UK, the very character of the EU will change. The flexible, Anglo/American arguments, which were made by the UK, will fade. The UK did much of the heavy lifting on behalf of corporate Ireland when it came to the EU.
This influence could well be gone by July. It will imply that we will have to adopt a more muscular approach within the EU and find new allies.
The third aspect of our relationship with the EU that will change is if the UK goes, the reaction of the main EU players will be more, not less, integration.
This isn't good for us. It will come at a time when the entire IDA and, to an extent, Enterprise Ireland, strategy has never been more America- focused. The biggest and most conspicuous casualty of a new, more integrationist EU will be our corporation tax rate. There is simply no way the EU will accept that Ireland deploys what it sees as "beggar-my-neighbour" tax tactics when the EU is seeking closer political and economic union.
Tax harmonisation will be the order of the day. When the British were on side, they argued for tax harmonisation but "downward tax harmonisation" where the lowest jurisdiction was the target. With France calling the shots, the target will clearly be upward harmonisation – a totally different ballgame.
Another change that would result from a Brexit depends on what the UK is likely to do once it leaves the EU. It is likely to compete more aggressively for inward corporate investment. It will offer packages that are similar or even better to Ireland's. This will mean that just when we are coming under bureaucratic EU pressure to raise our taxes and make the place less attractive, the British will be lowering taxes and making the UK more attractive.
Ireland's only way of surviving this assault would be to side with the EU in vindictive trade restrictions against Britain in an effort to make being inside the EU, with access to its markets, a marketing/industrial selling point.
But this would immediately mean clobbering the €1bn euro a week trade we currently do with the UK and all the jobs, prosperity and wealth that goes with it.
The implication is that to protect the multinationals, Ireland would have to endanger the domestic economy. Not pretty.
Any sort of EU restriction with trade, the movement of people or the free movement of capital with the UK will have to be challenged by the new Irish government.
If there is a hint of any barriers, we will have to opt out and the more we opt out the more semi-detached we would become.
That's absolutely fine with me because I believe the EU is a legacy project that has lost any real meaning or focus.
However, that's not the way the people who run Ireland see things. At the top of our civil service, the judiciary, the media, corporate Ireland and the political class, there is a virulent, unthinking strain of Europhilia.
All things European are seen as good, progressive and self-evidently positive. When views like this become so ubiquitous they morph into self-evident truths.
History tells us that views can become entrenched and if enough people – particularly those who describe themselves as 'serious people' – believe them, they become 'conventional wisdom'.
Once ideas become conventional wisdom, they are hard to shift. Conventional people (who like to think of themselves as serious people, not frivolous people) find it difficult to admit that they might be wrong. We see this stubborn behaviour at the top of many organisations because conventional people tend to promote those who have the same views as themselves and this reinforces the conventional wisdom.
In time, only 'cranks' question the conventional wisdom and this is how intellectual conformity solidifies in the commanding height of society, leading yet again to "groupthink".
Watch the Irish establishment uncover proof at every turn in the next few months.
Quote from: Hound on March 03, 2016, 07:05:44 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2016, 11:03:12 PM
I am really depressed listening to RTÉ and politicians today.
We have a major crisis ( ongoing and worsening) in our Health Service and there's a real housing and homelessness crisis.
And all I'm hearing about all fuckn day is FFrs and Loony lefties and RTÉ current affairs people going on and on and on about bloody charges for public water and sewerage.
FF are taking the bloody biscuit altogether - they agreed charges in 2010 as part of the Bail out.
Now they are on about suspending them for 5 years and doing a redundancy deal for Irish water staff and then returning responsibility for water and sewerage back to the Councils.
What next.... Buy back Aer Lingus or Eircom.
Disappointing from FF, but can't blame them. SF/PBP have a huge element of the population convinced that someone else should pay for their water
All will be ok when the people that paid for our water prior to Irish Water, come back. Has anyone seen them? If they have can you ask them to come back cos I'm sick of having to pay for stuff. I want them (whoever they are) to come back and pay for my water.
Brexit won't happen. The Euros don't want it and neither do the Tories. The big challenge facing the new Gov will be the next crash.
Two thirds, at least, of the State is still suffering from the fall out of the 2008 crash.
As for the EU - the main reason most of the Multi Nationals are here is because we're in the EU.
Quote from: Hound on March 02, 2016, 05:35:12 PM
Quote from: Canalman on March 02, 2016, 02:38:46 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 02:29:35 PM
The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?
Too true, too true. No way EU will allow this to continue. A Brexit might see our main exporter imposing tariffs and duties on our exports.
I'll tell you what will happen in a decade or so if the FDI low corporation guys depart (and as sure as night follows day they will) ................ we'll have the economists ranting and raving at how we allowed our economic wellbeing to be so tied up in one sector. ( like we were in the construction industry not so long ago).
Serious trouble ahead imo.
Utter nonsense.
Brexit would increase FDI into Ireland
And there is absolutely no threat to Ireland's 12.5% rate! (Apart from SF/PBP maybe)
In your opinion of course. Time will tell.
Personally, I cannot see our low tax rate surviving much longer if the EU turns on us (which it will sooner or later imo). .
The second part of the usual "double dip" recession to hit us shortly I'm afraid ........... imo of course again. Money printing (or whatever they are calling it now) never ends well. Far too much debt lingering around still.
Quote from: ashman on March 03, 2016, 01:31:43 AM
Irish bond yields ( all euro bonds in the main ) are low because the ECb are underwriting by secondary buying .
Good point. Is there a way of reasonably estimating what the yields would be if the ECB stopped?
Quote from: Rossfan on March 03, 2016, 11:11:12 AM
Two thirds, at least, of the State is still suffering from the fall out of the 2008 crash.
As for the EU - the main reason most of the Multi Nationals are here is because we're in the EU.
Two of the main reasons they are here is because of
1. Low Corp Tax.
2. An educated (the odd one like Rossfan slip through the net) English speaking workforce. There are other reasons but these are the main two.
Quote from: Canalman on March 03, 2016, 11:27:38 AM
Quote from: Hound on March 02, 2016, 05:35:12 PM
Quote from: Canalman on March 02, 2016, 02:38:46 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 02, 2016, 02:29:35 PM
The other thing in the background is the Brexit etc and any changes Europe will impose in the future. As all our eggs are in the FDI low corporation tax basket what'll happen when that changes?
Too true, too true. No way EU will allow this to continue. A Brexit might see our main exporter imposing tariffs and duties on our exports.
I'll tell you what will happen in a decade or so if the FDI low corporation guys depart (and as sure as night follows day they will) ................ we'll have the economists ranting and raving at how we allowed our economic wellbeing to be so tied up in one sector. ( like we were in the construction industry not so long ago).
Serious trouble ahead imo.
Utter nonsense.
Brexit would increase FDI into Ireland
And there is absolutely no threat to Ireland's 12.5% rate! (Apart from SF/PBP maybe)
In your opinion of course. Time will tell.
Personally, I cannot see our low tax rate surviving much longer if the EU turns on us (which it will sooner or later imo). .
The second part of the usual "double dip" recession to hit us shortly I'm afraid ........... imo of course again. Money printing (or whatever they are calling it now) never ends well. Far too much debt lingering around still.
Its not an opinion, its an absolute fact that the 12.5% tax rate is not under threat from the EU. The fact that a country can choose its own tax rate has been fully endorsed by the European Commission.
What is under attack is sweetheart deals given to companies which aren't in accordance with local or international tax rules. But the likes of Netherlands, Luxembourg and Belgium have far more to worry about in this regard as their tax systems are far more ruling based than ours.
Apple are under investigation in Ireland as they did get a ruling to determine their tax basis. While not alone in this regard, it is very much the exception and dates back to 1980, a very different time. The Department of Finance still say they believe everything is above aboard and will fight any negative finding. But the vast majority of companies in Ireland simply pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. Unlike a lot of our European neighbours, a very transparent system with no need for special rulings.
There is another thing called CCCTB, which if implemented would radically alter the way MNC profits are calculated and allocated between different countries. The 12.5% rate would stay the same but the profits in Ireland would be decreased, so it would be very bad for us. But it requires unanimity, and even Germany has expressed misgivings on it, so it doesn't appear to be a real risk at this stage.
And the Comission/ Council / qualified majority of member states or whoever can no doubt unendorse it . I would say that deep in the bowels of one of those treaties we voted on (eventually) there is a paragraph to that effect.
If our fellow member states (not to mention the IRS in America) try and shake us down, imo we are goosed. I think it will happen as well in the not too distant future.
The low corporation tax rate has served us very well , just think its days might be numbered.
Imo again.
QuoteThe Department of Finance still say they believe everything is above aboard and will fight any negative finding
And this is supposed to give us confidence???
Quote from: Declan on March 03, 2016, 04:20:04 PM
QuoteThe Department of Finance still say they believe everything is above aboard and will fight any negative finding
And this is supposed to give us confidence???
We are fully funded into the middle of next year. :D
Our banks are fully capitalised. :D :D
We fully expect a soft landing for our property sector. ;D ;D ;D
Party on dude.
Quote from: Canalman on March 03, 2016, 03:57:00 PM
And the Comission/ Council / qualified majority of member states or whoever can no doubt unendorse it . I would say that deep in the bowels of one of those treaties we voted on (eventually) there is a paragraph to that effect.
If our fellow member states (not to mention the IRS in America) try and shake us down, imo we are goosed. I think it will happen as well in the not too distant future.
The low corporation tax rate has served us very well , just think its days might be numbered.
Imo again.
imo too. Lots of lost diplomatic points and it stopped the Government from following more sustainable policies for the sake of short term gains.
Quote from: Canalman on March 03, 2016, 03:57:00 PM
And the Comission/ Council / qualified majority of member states or whoever can no doubt unendorse it . I would say that deep in the bowels of one of those treaties we voted on (eventually) there is a paragraph to that effect.
If our fellow member states (not to mention the IRS in America) try and shake us down, imo we are goosed. I think it will happen as well in the not too distant future.
The low corporation tax rate has served us very well , just think its days might be numbered.
Imo again.
Everyone is of course entitled to their opinion, but you're just making stuff up.
EU countries have an absolute right to choose whatever tax rates they want, so long as its not discriminatory towards or against particular sectors. That cannot change without unanimous vote.
If there was ever going to be an attack on the 12.5% rate it would have come when we were on our knees looking for the so-called "bailout", when perhaps there was an opportunity for them to force us turkeys to vote for Christmas.
But it never even entered negotiations, because its not up for discussion.
There are lots and lots of discussions about tax, and there are ways that other countries will try and reduce our overall CT tax take - but a change in actual Irish tax rate is not one of them
The US are actually jumping up and down at the European Commission going after the likes of Apple.
The US could change their own rules to make us (and Netherlands, Lux, Belgium, etc) less attractive, but they won't.
Quote from: Hound on March 04, 2016, 09:00:00 AM
Everyone is of course entitled to their opinion, but you're just making stuff up.
EU countries have an absolute right to choose whatever tax rates they want, so long as its not discriminatory towards or against particular sectors. That cannot change without unanimous vote.
Exactly, and no way is the likes of Poland going to let France (say) set their tax rates.
QuoteThe US are actually jumping up and down at the European Commission going after the likes of Apple.
The US could change their own rules to make us (and Netherlands, Lux, Belgium, etc) less attractive, but they won't.
A lot of the problem lies in the US tax system.
What Ireland should do (and has done) is embrace OECD measures to get rid of some of the more ridiculous rackets, this might even bring in more tax.
Some very interesting analysis of the media coverage of the election.
https://medium.com/@beyourownreason/analysing-the-media-coverage-of-the-irish-general-election-e9425f6cf07f#.uno9f09r8
Seàn Ò Fearghail FF South Kildare elected Ceann Comhairle.
I expect all the nominees for Taoiseach ( incl Looney anti everything candidate) to be rejected and Realpolitik to begin.
Meanwhile 222 adults have become homeless in Dublin since the election.
Where's Murphy and Boyd Barrett and their protesters now?
Quote from: Rossfan on March 10, 2016, 03:25:54 PM
Seàn Ò Fearghail FF South Kildare elected Ceann Comhairle.
I expect all the nominees for Taoiseach ( incl Looney anti everything candidate) to be rejected and Realpolitik to begin.
Meanwhile 222 adults have become homeless in Dublin since the election.
Where's Murphy and Boyd Barrett and their protesters now?
How exactly is that their fault? Would have thought that would be down to Noonan and Kelly. After all they were the ones with the purse strings. I'm sure RBB and the "other lefty loons" would have prioritised homelessness over subsidising DOB's loan repayments.
How's the protest going over having to pay twice for your water? U should have stuck with the winners and came out with us at the original protests.