Where's Northern a-land?
I'd love to see Peter Robinson get a slap in the head
Robinson is very dour.
Quote from: hardstation on May 04, 2010, 09:36:44 PM
Bring the Brits back! Are these fcukers nuts?
Great TV moment though.
"Catch yerself on Reg"
:D
"Catch yourself on Reg" Gwan ya good ting Gerry
How badly do the SDLP regret not electing McDonnell as party leader?
Quote from: dodgy umpire on May 04, 2010, 10:17:39 PM
How badly do the SDLP regret not electing McDonnell as party leader?
She is pathetic. The SDLP are fooked..
What about Peter on about Loyalty from family members!!
Quote from: EC Unique on May 04, 2010, 10:21:12 PM
Quote from: dodgy umpire on May 04, 2010, 10:17:39 PM
How badly do the SDLP regret not electing McDonnell as party leader?
She is pathetic. The SDLP are fooked..
What about Peter on about Loyalty from family members!!
Thought that at the time myself. He convieniently side stepped the expenses for iris's bed.
Ritchie is most likely turning voters off rather than attracting any.
Ritchie was a strange choice for leader - no doubt McDonnell would fare better in such debates. Having said that, I don't think she did anything wrong tonight.
I don't think there were any real winners or losers tonight, although Reg probably had the roughest ride.
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 04, 2010, 10:29:23 PM
Ritchie was a strange choice for leader - no doubt McDonnell would fare better in such debates. Having said that, I don't think she did anything wrong tonight. I don't think there were any real winners or losers tonight, although Reg probably had the roughest ride.
For a start she claimed Maskey had retired from Politics. Maskey must have been suprised to learn this from the leader of the SDLP
'Novvin Ahlin'
Robinson pronounces it very strangely.
Quote from: dodgy umpire on May 04, 2010, 10:33:23 PMReg probably had the roughest ride.
Nah - I'd say Peter has the roughest ride.
Quote from: dodgy umpire on May 04, 2010, 10:33:23 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 04, 2010, 10:29:23 PM
Ritchie was a strange choice for leader - no doubt McDonnell would fare better in such debates. Having said that, I don't think she did anything wrong tonight. I don't think there were any real winners or losers tonight, although Reg probably had the roughest ride.
For a start she claimed Maskey had retired from Politics. Maskey must have been suprised to learn this from the leader of the SDLP
Ah come on - that was very clearly tongue in cheek!
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 04, 2010, 10:29:23 PM
Ritchie was a strange choice for leader - no doubt McDonnell would fare better in such debates. Having said that, I don't think she did anything wrong tonight.
I don't think there were any real winners or losers tonight, although Reg probably had the roughest ride.
What Ritchie needs is a good shag. Anyone prepared to give her one for the team?
Where is she in comparison to the real rugby woman who streaked?
Quote from: Orior on May 04, 2010, 10:50:53 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 04, 2010, 10:29:23 PM
Ritchie was a strange choice for leader - no doubt McDonnell would fare better in such debates. Having said that, I don't think she did anything wrong tonight.
I don't think there were any real winners or losers tonight, although Reg probably had the roughest ride.
What Ritchie needs is a good shag. Anyone prepared to give her one for the team?
Peter is your man. With Iris away getting treatment he must be feeling lonely.
Quote from: Puckoon on May 04, 2010, 10:53:49 PM
Where is she in comparison to the real rugby woman who streaked?
That was more of a smudge than a streak.
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 04, 2010, 10:45:42 PM
Quote from: dodgy umpire on May 04, 2010, 10:33:23 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 04, 2010, 10:29:23 PM
Ritchie was a strange choice for leader - no doubt McDonnell would fare better in such debates. Having said that, I don't think she did anything wrong tonight. I don't think there were any real winners or losers tonight, although Reg probably had the roughest ride.
For a start she claimed Maskey had retired from Politics. Maskey must have been suprised to learn this from the leader of the SDLP
Ah come on - that was very clearly tongue in cheek!
Pretty pointless statement given he is a serving MLA and stood aside in SB to benefit those he represents and the SDLP.
Attempting to interupt Adams during his final comment was petty IMO
She was way out of order at the end. I've never seen any summation interrupted like that here or across the water. Classless.
The Maskey quote was tongue in cheek and it's quite clear the SDLP don't give a hoot about the SF vote in S Belfast going by that. Although others will argue that it might stand to SF in the long run but i think it was a mistake pulling out of S Belfast. Must be very hard for any SF voter to put an X beside thon other boyo given their soundbites since the decision. Will their gesture encourage floating SDLP/SF voters in S Tyrone to give Michelle their vote?
Five more minutes of listening to Ritchie, and i would be voting TUV
Quote from: Pangurban on May 05, 2010, 12:01:35 AM
Five more minutes of listening to Ritchie, and i would be voting TUV
x2. Miss Truncbull is hard to take alright!
Only one real leader there - Gerry Adams by a country mile.
The leader of the pro unionist , pro brit army, sdlp is a joke and how any electorate could take that party serious is beyond me.
Hopefully the party of change and equality can get the vote out in south down and a 32 county party takes the winning vote and Caitriona is that representative.
The more NI politics becomes normal, the more I think about the following,
Who do you vote for in NI if you are a nationalist who has ring wing views?
Agreed with the comments about Ritchie she is terrible, can't answer any question which she doesnt have a rehearsed answer for.
Gerry definitely had the most charisma of the 4, would be worried about the lack of effort Sinn Fein put into discussing the economy, i also think the time has come for Sinn Fein to sit in westminister.
Not a snowball's chance in hell of Sinn Fein sitting in Westminster.
Can any of you more astute political observers explain to a bemused onlooker the logic, moral basis or political purpose of SF's abstentionist policy in the post-peace process world? They're happy to administer British rule in Ireland but unwilling to represent Irish people in the British parliament, arguably the more important assembly in the effect it has on the lives of those who voted for them.
The pro union sdlp continued use of the term northern ireland was nauseating , any right minded nationalist would use the term north of ireland and basically we see the post nationalist sdlp at play - they are pro union and should just come clean about it .
We must get the vote out and ensure we elect republicans in south down and fermanagh south tyrone .Sinn Fein is the only republican party in this election , the rest are pro union.!
Quote from: Hardy on May 05, 2010, 09:37:29 AM
Can any of you more astute political observers explain to a bemused onlooker the logic, moral basis or political purpose of SF's abstentionist policy in the post-peace process world? They're happy to administer British rule in Ireland but unwilling to represent Irish people in the British parliament, arguably the more important assembly in the effect it has on the lives of those who voted for them.
Hardy, if may have escaped you but SF are elected on an abstentionist ticket i.e. they are elected not to go so why would they go?
Re. the puerile 'administering British rule' point: they are representing their constituents in an Assembly constituted by an all-Ireland referendum, containing significant all-Ireland input, as well as the obvious British input. Therefore the Assembly has a legitimacy in Ireland which the Brit parliament lacks.
Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? Do you know what proportion of legislation affecting the north originates in Westminster?
Quote"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? Do you know what proportion of legislation affecting the north originates in Westminster?"
Idealistic bullsh*t.
For those queueing up for,
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Statutory sick pay
Pensions
Cold weather payments
Carers allowance
Certainly isnt coming from Dublin.
Irrespective of the romantic notion you may have Ulick, westminister has a much much more significant impact on the lifes of the people in the six counties than Dublin.
Thanks for answering Ulick. Forgive me. It's probably unworthy, but I get a laugh from the discomfort the line about administering British rule provokes and from wondering what the form of words to explain it will be. So you're right - it is a bit puerile in that it's done in a spirit of mischievous stick poking. I was hoping for a response from Nally Stand. Maybe yet.
On your serious question - I haven't calculated the relative proportions of relevant legislation originating from the separate parliaments. I just think most people would reason that the major economic policy and spending decisions are the ones that affect people's lives the most.
Quote from: Bensars on May 05, 2010, 10:29:01 AM
Quote"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? Do you know what proportion of legislation affecting the north originates in Westminster?"
Irrespective of the romantic notion you may have Ulick, westminister has a much much more significant impact on the lifes of the people in the six counties than Dublin.
Okay then Bensars, how much legislation originates in Westminster?
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 10:33:43 AM
Quote from: Bensars on May 05, 2010, 10:29:01 AM
Quote"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? Do you know what proportion of legislation affecting the north originates in Westminster?"
Irrespective of the romantic notion you may have Ulick, westminister has a much much more significant impact on the lifes of the people in the six counties than Dublin.
Okay then Bensars, how much legislation originates in Westminster?
Effect on the lives of the people ?
Legislation originating from westminister would include, budget guidelines which include
Income tax rates
Pension rates
Benefit rates
Fuel duty
Stamp duty on property
License fees
Dont forget the free medical care under the NHS.
To get involved or caught up in the argument about the amount of legislation originating from westmisinster vs stormont or Dublin is nothing other than a smokescreen.
The British Parlliament has a huge impact on the lives of the people of the north, whether or not that fits with your political ideals or not. You cant square a circle !
I could not watch every time Ritchie opened her trap, she was that annoying, every answer is straight out of the John Hume Soundbite Book (available in all bad bookshops). The last person to run a party as bad as her was Michael Barrymore.
Quote from: Hardy on May 05, 2010, 10:30:14 AM
Thanks for answering Ulick. Forgive me. It's probably unworthy, but I get a laugh from the discomfort the line about administering British rule provokes and from wondering what the form of words to explain it will be. So you're right - it is a bit puerile in that it's done in a spirit of mischievous stick poking. I was hoping for a response from Nally Stand. Maybe yet.
On your serious question - I haven't calculated the relative proportions of relevant legislation originating from the separate parliaments. I just think most people would reason that the major economic policy and spending decisions are the ones that affect people's lives the most.
Hardy, I'd estimate between 5-10% of legislation originates in the British parliament, with the rest coming from Brussels or Stormont so it's very debatable whether it has more affect on people lives.
One other point on the abstentionist thing, IMO the more abstentionist MPs we have the more focus is brought to bear on the illegitimacy of the British presence. The next election could see at least half of the norths 18 MPs in SF (abstentionist) hands which will correctly blow open the constitutional debate here. Up until now we have been denied that debate due to unionist denials reunification will ever happen and the southern establishments unwillingness to debate it in the open for fear it somehow bolsters the SF position. That debate is sorely needed.
Quote from: Bensars on May 05, 2010, 10:46:28 AM
To get involved or caught up in the argument about the amount of legislation originating from westmisinster vs stormont or Dublin is nothing other than a smokescreen.
The British Parlliament has a huge impact on the lives of the people of the north, whether or not that fits with your political ideals or not. You cant square a circle !
Bensars, clam down ffs. Firstly I was not comparing it to Stormont or Dublin, the EU was probably uppermost in my mind as the body that sets the framework for most legislation. Secondly, despite the small amount of legislation coming from the Brit parliament, which granted has a great affect on the people of the six counties, Irish MPs have no influence over there never have, never will. The best thing for the Irish to do is to devise a strategy to extract themselves from the union in the medium term and in the short term to lobby the Brits for our interests. But make no mistake, they'll get fcuk all from doffing the cap to the Britsh establishment in Westminster.
Quote from: Doogie Browser on May 05, 2010, 11:02:43 AM
I could not watch every time Ritchie opened her trap, she was that annoying, every answer is straight out of the John Hume Soundbite Book (available in all bad bookshops). The last person to run a party as bad as her was Michael Barrymore.
:D :D :D
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 10:18:35 AM
Quote from: Hardy on May 05, 2010, 09:37:29 AM
Can any of you more astute political observers explain to a bemused onlooker the logic, moral basis or political purpose of SF's abstentionist policy in the post-peace process world? They're happy to administer British rule in Ireland but unwilling to represent Irish people in the British parliament, arguably the more important assembly in the effect it has on the lives of those who voted for them.
Hardy, if may have escaped you but SF are elected on an abstentionist ticket i.e. they are elected not to go so why would they go?
What % of SF's vote is solely down to their abstentionist policy? I would have thought there were more important issues.
If SF changed their absentionist policy, how much do you think it affect their vote?
Quote from: Bensars on May 05, 2010, 10:29:01 AM
Quote"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? Do you know what proportion of legislation affecting the north originates in Westminster?"
Idealistic bullsh*t.
For those queueing up for,
Unemployment benefit
Job seekers allowance
DLA
Child benefits
Disability benefits
Television License
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Housing Benefit
Funeral Payments
Bereavement benefits
War Widow's
Widower's Pension
Maternity allowance
Statutory maternity pay
Statutory sick pay
Pensions
Cold weather payments
Carers allowance
Certainly isnt coming from Dublin.
Irrespective of the romantic notion you may have Ulick, westminister has a much much more significant impact on the lifes of the people in the six counties than Dublin.
On the other hand income tax, VAT etc are not heading to Dublin. I would agree with you that westminister has a huge impact on the lives of the people of the north but I dont believe that any MP from the north (abstentionist or not) has any influence on party policy in Britain.
Quote from: saffron sam2 on May 05, 2010, 11:39:10 AM
What % of SF's vote is solely down to their abstentionist policy? I would have thought there were more important issues.
If SF changed their absentionist policy, how much do you think it affect their vote?
No idea, but they wouldn't get my vote, as I don't think there is a more important issue than national sovereignty.
If the politicians want to devolve everything and play big boys politics, where do they get the dough if Westminster decide to stop footing the bills for the 6 counties? Everytime there is a butting of heads in Stormont they run off cap in hand to London to say they'll play nice for another handout.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 11:51:28 AM
Quote from: saffron sam2 on May 05, 2010, 11:39:10 AM
What % of SF's vote is solely down to their abstentionist policy? I would have thought there were more important issues.
If SF changed their absentionist policy, how much do you think it affect their vote?
No idea, but they wouldn't get my vote, as I don't think there is a more important issue than national sovereignty.
There are plenty more important issues than national sovereignty, I don't speak for all the young people of northern ireland, but im 23 and a united ireland is way down the list of things i consider when voting, it doesnt effect me day to day, i have the right to call myself irish and im happy enough with that. Im not old enough to have been badly effected my the troubles. If anything living in Dublin the last 2 years has made me realise plenty of the negative sides to a united Ireland.
Getting back to the more important issues, Your child/wife/mother is suffering a life threatening illness and can't get treatment in time, your offered a united ireland or saving your loved ones life, what do you do. Sinn Fein can't even sit and debate this in west minister, its ridiculous. I understand their stance 30 years ago but not now.
All the partys have to start focusing on proper politics in the north, as was highlighted last night, Sinn Feins view on the economy is on the 42nd page of their mandate, thats just ridiculous, not even 4 pages on it. What normal country has a main party with that. I'm not just having a go at Sinn Fein, i voted for them at the last election. SDLP are a joke of a party, Margaret Ritchie answers every question like shes doing A Level economics, she struggles with any question that isn't straight forward.
I wouldn't be a fan of the tories but they are right in saying NI needs cuts in the public sector, if we want to be a normal function country we can't have half the work force doing nothing working for the government.
Quote from: Mario on May 05, 2010, 12:16:24 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 11:51:28 AM
Quote from: saffron sam2 on May 05, 2010, 11:39:10 AM
What % of SF's vote is solely down to their abstentionist policy? I would have thought there were more important issues.
If SF changed their absentionist policy, how much do you think it affect their vote?
No idea, but they wouldn't get my vote, as I don't think there is a more important issue than national sovereignty.
There are plenty more important issues than national sovereignty, I don't speak for all the young people of northern ireland, but im 23 and a united ireland is way down the list of things i consider when voting, it doesnt effect me day to day, i have the right to call myself irish and im happy enough with that. Im not old enough to have been badly effected my the troubles. If anything living in Dublin the last 2 years has made me realise plenty of the negative sides to a united Ireland.
Getting back to the more important issues, Your child/wife/mother is suffering a life threatening illness and can't get treatment in time, your offered a united ireland or saving your loved ones life, what do you do. Sinn Fein can't even sit and debate this in west minister, its ridiculous. I understand their stance 30 years ago but not now.
All the partys have to start focusing on proper politics in the north, as was highlighted last night, Sinn Feins view on the economy is on the 42nd page of their mandate, thats just ridiculous, not even 4 pages on it. What normal country has a main party with that. I'm not just having a go at Sinn Fein, i voted for them at the last election. SDLP are a joke of a party, Margaret Ritchie answers every question like shes doing A Level economics, she struggles with any question that isn't straight forward.
I wouldn't be a fan of the tories but they are right in saying NI needs cuts in the public sector, if we want to be a normal function country we can't have half the work force doing nothing working for the government.
Mario, what benefit exactly do you think SF could gain or change could they effect by taking their seats?
Quote from: Bensars on May 05, 2010, 10:46:28 AM
Legislation originating from westminister would include, budget guidelines which include
Income tax rates
Pension rates
Benefit rates
Fuel duty
Stamp duty on property
License fees
Dont forget the free medical care under the NHS.
And not one mentioned in any party pamphlet that's dropped through my door to date.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 11:03:52 AM
Quote from: Hardy on May 05, 2010, 10:30:14 AM
Thanks for answering Ulick. Forgive me. It's probably unworthy, but I get a laugh from the discomfort the line about administering British rule provokes and from wondering what the form of words to explain it will be. So you're right - it is a bit puerile in that it's done in a spirit of mischievous stick poking. I was hoping for a response from Nally Stand. Maybe yet.
On your serious question - I haven't calculated the relative proportions of relevant legislation originating from the separate parliaments. I just think most people would reason that the major economic policy and spending decisions are the ones that affect people's lives the most.
Hardy, I'd estimate between 5-10% of legislation originates in the British parliament, with the rest coming from Brussels or Stormont so it's very debatable whether it has more affect on people lives.
One other point on the abstentionist thing, IMO the more abstentionist MPs we have the more focus is brought to bear on the illegitimacy of the British presence. The next election could see at least half of the norths 18 MPs in SF (abstentionist) hands which will correctly blow open the constitutional debate here. Up until now we have been denied that debate due to unionist denials reunification will ever happen and the southern establishments unwillingness to debate it in the open for fear it somehow bolsters the SF position. That debate is sorely needed.
Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder ::)
Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder ::)
Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).
delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said
next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:
North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone
Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?
Quote from: Bensars on May 05, 2010, 10:29:01 AM
Quote"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? Do you know what proportion of legislation affecting the north originates in Westminster?"
Idealistic bullsh*t.
For those queueing up for,
Unemployment benefit
Job seekers allowance
DLA
Child benefits
Disability benefits
Television License
Council Tax Benefit
Housing Benefit
Funeral Payments
Bereavement benefits
War Widow's
Widower's Pension
Maternity allowance
Statutory maternity pay
Statutory sick pay
Pensions
Cold weather payments
Carers allowance
Certainly isnt coming from Dublin.
Irrespective of the romantic notion you may have Ulick, westminister has a much much more significant impact on the lifes of the people in the six counties than Dublin.
The Majority of these are benifits.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 11:03:52 AM
One other point on the abstentionist thing, IMO the more abstentionist MPs we have the more focus is brought to bear on the illegitimacy of the British presence. The next election could see at least half of the norths 18 MPs in SF (abstentionist) hands which will correctly blow open the constitutional debate here. Up until now we have been denied that debate due to unionist denials reunification will ever happen and the southern establishments unwillingness to debate it in the open for fear it somehow bolsters the SF position. That debate is sorely needed.
You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.
it was in reference to the first question
"Also, how do you figure that the British parliament has more effect on the lives of the people of the north? "
But thanks for pointing that out
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 05, 2010, 01:35:23 PM
You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.
Why not? What else will instigate the debate?
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:07:17 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder ::)
Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).
delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:
North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone
Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?
Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin.
I did read it, so the
next election isn't the
next one, its actually the one after :-\ whatever.
Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a
no win for SF.
West Belfast: a
SF win Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a
SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
No SF win. Mid Ulster:
SF winNewry and Armagh:
SF winSouth Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination, won't be taking it this or the following election, again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads.
No SF winUpper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily.
No SF win. West Tyrone:
SF win
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 01:47:27 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:07:17 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder ::)
Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).
delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:
North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone
Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?
Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin.
I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after, whatever.
Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.
West Belfast: a SF win
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
Mid Ulster: SF win
Newry and Armagh: SF win
South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination, won't be taking it this or the following election, again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win
Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.
West Tyrone: SF win
You do understand that when I say next election I mean in five years time? If so why are you basing your opinion on current polls, however flawed, without taking into consideration the voting trend in each of the constituencies?
Ok just for you i'll invent a time machine so i can look at the opinion polls in 5 years time :D Actually i won't, i'll go with nearly all people/political commentators do in this instance and use the very latest opionion polls and then project those into the future to make an educated guess.
Or i could do what you seem to and base projected seats on hopes and aspirations rather than on polls.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:38:27 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 05, 2010, 01:35:23 PM
You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.
Why not? What else will instigate the debate?
I'd assume a majority nationalist vote in an election (for SF and SDLP combined), rather than one party having 50% of seats in an 18 seat first past the post contest.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 01:47:27 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:07:17 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder ::)
Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).
delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:
North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone
Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?
Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin.
I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after, whatever.
Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.
West Belfast: a SF win
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
Mid Ulster: SF win
Newry and Armagh: SF win
South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination, won't be taking it this or the following election, again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win
Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.
West Tyrone: SF win
You do understand that when I say next election I mean in five years time? If so why are you basing your opinion on current polls, however flawed, without taking into consideration the voting trend in each of the constituencies?
I'm hearing that O'Dowd could pull of a surprise and take the Upper Bann seat.
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 01:58:09 PM
Ok just for you i'll invent a time machine so i can look at the opinion polls in 5 years time :D Actually i won't, i'll go with what all people do in this instance and use the very latest opionion polls and then project those into the future to make an educated guess.
What polls are you using and why aren't you considering the most reliable voting trends and census data?
Quote from: ziggysego on May 05, 2010, 02:00:19 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:50:12 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 01:47:27 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:07:17 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Ever the optomist, much more likely to be 4-5 MPs in the real world (good chance of losing a seat from the last elections), would that blow closed the constitional debate here i wonder ::)
Its ironic that if they did get the 9 or so you hope/dream for then it would make the job of the conservatives (now an out and out unionist party) to govern westminster just that much easier in the event of a tight hung parliment with them as the single largest party (the most likely scenario as it stands).
delboy, if you read my post instead of trying hard to be witty with your puerile use of smilies, I said next election not this one. The seats in play for SF next time out are:
North Belfast
West Belfast
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Foyle
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
South Down
Upper Bann
West Tyrone
Now you tell me which of these are unrealistic targets?
Pretty fond of that word peurile, was it word of the day in dictionary corner or something, if you think smilies are peurile i suggest you take it up with the site admin.
I did read it, so the next election isn't the next one, its actually the one after, whatever.
Don't know why im wasting my time but here goes anyway.
North Belfast: Dodds who is probably the most able of the DUP candidates is polling 7 % more than Kelly, overall 43 % nationalist/unionist 49 % a no win for SF.
West Belfast: a SF win
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: could go either way this one, but i suspect in the any subsequent elections when tactics come into play it will be a SF win.
Foyle: Mark Durkan is probably the most able SDLP candidate and recent polling gives him an 11 % lead in that seat, SF might make inroads into that but won't be taking that seat in this or the next election, tactical voting by unionists to stop SF will also help hold up his vote.
Mid Ulster: SF win
Newry and Armagh: SF win
South Down: latest poll gives Ritchie a 17 % lead against ruination, won't be taking it this or the following election, again tactical voting by unionists will shore up the SDLP in the event of SF making major inroads. No SF win
Upper Bann: O'dowd is polling at about 30 % (4 % behind DUP) but the total nationalist vote is 42 % compared to the total unionist vote of 55 %, if the SDLP moves on mass to SF, a unionist pact will see a unionist candidate returned easily. No SF win.
West Tyrone: SF win
You do understand that when I say next election I mean in five years time? If so why are you basing your opinion on current polls, however flawed, without taking into consideration the voting trend in each of the constituencies?
I'm hearing that O'Dowd could pull of a surprise and take the Upper Bann seat.
He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 05, 2010, 01:59:32 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 01:38:27 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 05, 2010, 01:35:23 PM
You'd swear the Good Friday Agreement had never happened!
The debate will happen, but it won't be on the back of a Westminster poll.
Why not? What else will instigate the debate?
I'd assume a majority nationalist vote in an election (for SF and SDLP combined), rather than one party having 50% of seats in an 18 seat first past the post contest.
You're splitting hairs now Maguire.
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:03:41 PM
He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.
Have you considered census data and voting trends for any of the four constituencies you say are unwinnable for SF in five years time? What makes you think tactical voting won't come into play on the nationalist side?
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:01:02 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 01:58:09 PM
Ok just for you i'll invent a time machine so i can look at the opinion polls in 5 years time :D Actually i won't, i'll go with what all people do in this instance and use the very latest opionion polls and then project those into the future to make an educated guess.
What polls are you using and why aren't you considering the most reliable voting trends and census data?
Im using the belfast telegraph poll.
For the larger picture what about this from the economic research and social research council.
Health Warning* May cause nightmares for republicans.
long term policy for northern irelandl (http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html)
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:09:11 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:03:41 PM
He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.
Have you considered census data and voting trends for any of the four constituencies you say are unwinnable for SF in five years time? What makes you think tactical voting won't come into play on the nationalist side?
I would think the SDLP would rather give a vote to the Unionist side rather than side with SF, Whilst the are supposed to be singing from a similiar Hymn sheet i really do wonder at times the extent to which they would go to put one over on SF.
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:11:06 PM
Im using the belfast telegraph poll.
For the larger picture what about this from the economic research and social research council.
Health Warning* May cause nightmares for republicans.
long term policy for northern irelandl (http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html)
Sorry, you are using the Belfast Telegraph poll, which wasn't taken by a registered polling agency, but a public relations company owned by a DUP member, based on out-of-date data and low sample size with an estimated (self-declared) margin of error of at least 7%? Aye we can see you are on steady ground with your predictions.
As for the Life and Times survey - surely the last throw of the dice from the desperate. Widely discredited and bears no relation to how people actually vote.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:09:11 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:03:41 PM
He could do, but i doubt he would retain it in subsequent elections when tactical voting/standing came into play.
Have you considered census data and voting trends for any of the four constituencies you say are unwinnable for SF in five years time? What makes you think tactical voting won't come into play on the nationalist side?
Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:18:23 PM
Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.
The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election.
In North Belfast, the nationalist vote has always underperformed given the sectarian balance. The only thing that will keep in DUP hands tomorrow is the pathetic performance of the UUP. Demographic trends will see it come into play for SF at the next election. Most commentators are agreed on this.
As Upper Bann is pretty similar in demographics to North Belfast, only the rebalance is happening much faster. If you don't think it's in play, then why did the TUV not put a candidate up?
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:17:53 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:11:06 PM
Im using the belfast telegraph poll.
For the larger picture what about this from the economic research and social research council.
Health Warning* May cause nightmares for republicans.
long term policy for northern irelandl (http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html)
Sorry, you are using the Belfast Telegraph poll, which wasn't taken by a registered polling agency, but a public relations company owned by a DUP member, based on out-of-date data and low sample size with an estimated (self-declared) margin of error of at least 7%? Aye we can see you are on steady ground with your predictions.
As for the Life and Times survey - surely the last throw of the dice from the desperate. Widely discredited and bears no relation to how people actually vote.
Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.
I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.
Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that :)
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:31:06 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:18:23 PM
Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.
The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election.
In North Belfast, the nationalist vote has always underperformed given the sectarian balance. The only thing that will keep in DUP hands tomorrow is the pathetic performance of the UUP. Demographic trends will see it come into play for SF at the next election. Most commentators are agreed on this.
As Upper Bann is pretty similar in demographics to North Belfast, only the rebalance is happening much faster. If you don't think it's in play, then why did the TUV not put a candidate up?
Make your predicitions then :)
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:34:43 PM
Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.
I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.
Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that :)
http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/ (http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/)
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 03:00:42 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:34:43 PM
Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.
I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.
Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that :)
http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/ (http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/)
And ??? Any evidence that there is any biasis in it?
Im prepared to put my money were my mouth is, you seem to be an expert of how people vote, should be like taking candy of a baby for you.
What about a link to that site discrediting the opinion poll about the future of northern ireland, im surprised i haven't read about it elsewhere, the discrediting of a survey setup up by the two seats of learning queens and university of ulster would be newsworthy one would have thought.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:31:06 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:18:23 PM
Thats a fair point and actually worth addressing, two out of those four 'unwinnable constituencies' have an SDLP person at the helm with a healthu lead, if anyone needs to step aside in that instance its the SF candidate with the smaller mandate. I fail to see how that helps your case.
The other two seats have a sizeable unionist majority, any electoral pact between the sdlp and SF could be easily countered with a similar unionist pact which would win through.
The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election.
In North Belfast, the nationalist vote has always underperformed given the sectarian balance. The only thing that will keep in DUP hands tomorrow is the pathetic performance of the UUP. Demographic trends will see it come into play for SF at the next election. Most commentators are agreed on this.
As Upper Bann is pretty similar in demographics to North Belfast, only the rebalance is happening much faster. If you don't think it's in play, then why did the TUV not put a candidate up?
Can't say i agree with you, for one the latest changes to the boundaries has cemented the unionist/nationalist makeup of the seats, almost without exception the nationalist seats have become more nationalist and the unionist has become more unionist with the transfer of nationalist and unionist wards into the new boundaries respectively.
North belfast for instance has expanded to include wards from both south and east antrim (newtownabbey) where the catholic population is less than 20 %, this will of course increase the unionist majority making it unwinnable for kelly.
SF will have know all this but them seem to have been happy with the carve up which will also see nationalist seats essentially remain in their hands for perpetuity.
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 03:14:21 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 03:00:42 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 02:34:43 PM
Whilst the small sample size is not ideal (the error is 3 % with 95 % confidence levels), unfortuantely its the only one available, i can't just pull one out of my arse like you seem to.
I tell you what since you are so confident that the poll is wrong you make your predictions and i'll make mine based largely upon that poll, who ever gets closest to the actual results chooses a charity to which the loser pays £20.
Since the other opinion poll according to you was widlely discredited it shouldn't be any problem for you to provide links to the site of the organisation that discredited it, i'd be interested in reading that :)
http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/ (http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/03/inform-communication-and-opinion-polling/)
And ??? Any evidence that there is any biasis in it?
Im prepared to put my money were my mouth is, you seem to be an expert of how people vote, should be like taking candy of a baby for you.
What about a link to that site discrediting the opinion poll about the future of northern ireland, im surprised i haven't read about it elsewhere, the discrediting of a survey setup up by the two seats of learning queens and university of ulster would be newsworthy one would have thought.
There were more after the poll came out, just too busy at the moment to hunt them down.
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 03:26:33 PM
Can't say i agree with you, for one the latest changes to the boundaries has cemented the unionist/nationalist makeup of the seats, almost without exception the nationalist seats have become more nationalist and the unionist has become more unionist with the transfer of nationalist and unionist wards into the new boundaries respectively.
North belfast for instance has expanded to include wards from both south and east antrim (newtownabbey) where the catholic population is less than 20 %, this will of course increase the unionist majority making it unwinnable for kelly.
SF will have know all this but them seem to have been happy with the carve up which will also see nationalist seats essentially remain in their hands for perpetuity.
Actually the wards that have been pulled into North Belfast make it more Catholic (Cloughfern from East Antrim and five wards in Glengormley).
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/constituency-profile-north-belfast-14790126.html (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/constituency-profile-north-belfast-14790126.html)
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 03:55:29 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 03:26:33 PM
Can't say i agree with you, for one the latest changes to the boundaries has cemented the unionist/nationalist makeup of the seats, almost without exception the nationalist seats have become more nationalist and the unionist has become more unionist with the transfer of nationalist and unionist wards into the new boundaries respectively.
North belfast for instance has expanded to include wards from both south and east antrim (newtownabbey) where the catholic population is less than 20 %, this will of course increase the unionist majority making it unwinnable for kelly.
SF will have know all this but them seem to have been happy with the carve up which will also see nationalist seats essentially remain in their hands for perpetuity.
Actually the wards that have been pulled into North Belfast make it more Catholic (Cloughfern from East Antrim and five wards in Glengormley).
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/constituency-profile-north-belfast-14790126.html (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/constituency-profile-north-belfast-14790126.html)
I stand corrected, the beeb had it as newtownabbey not glengormley, on closer inspection it would make the seat 0.2 % more catholic than it was at the previous election. So not the best example of what i was driving at but the cementing of orange and green seats is evident through much of the boundary changes.
Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance :)
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 04:14:55 PM
Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance :)
Ah go on then, I'm not normally a betting man but as it's for charity, I'll give it a go. What way do you want to do it? Predict each constituency winner, the margins in each constituency, or a selection of constituencies?
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 04:55:40 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 04:14:55 PM
Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance :)
Ah go on then, I'm not normally a betting man but as it's for charity, I'll give it a go. What way do you want to do it? Predict each constituency winner, the margins in each constituency, or a selection of constituencies?
I think a prediction of all constituency winners, im sure we'll differ enough to get a winner.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:31:06 PM
The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election
You're working on the assumption that the SDLP vote will continue to drop at each election. At some stage their vote will level out. It's not clear when that will be, but the SDLP will always have a core vote and there are many nationalists who will never vote SF.
Quote from: Maguire01 on May 05, 2010, 06:21:04 PM
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 02:31:06 PM
The SDLP vote has dropped substantially in Foyle in every election since Hume stepped down, there is no reason to assume it won't keep dropping. In South Down McGrady's vote has been dropping but there is little doubt it will see a substantial drop tomorrow, bringing it into play for the next election
You're working on the assumption that the SDLP vote will continue to drop at each election. At some stage their vote will level out. It's not clear when that will be, but the SDLP will always have a core vote and there are many nationalists who will never vote SF.
Yes, I would agree, however I would suggest alot of these people would abstain from voting rather than ticking the stoops box.
Dirty tricks?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/northern_ireland/8661181.stm
Gerry Adams was the only politician to use a visual aid, waving around part of former SDLP MP Eddie McGrady's expenses bill as the leaders discussed the Westminster expenses scandal.
The SDLP leader retorted with reference to Sinn Fein's inflated rentals for London properties.
The SDLP later said in a statement that contrary to Mr Adams' claims, Mr McGrady had never claimed for the cutting of grass or hedges as part of his Westminster allowance.
The claim referred to by Mr Adams related to the repair and maintenance of his constituency office and compliance with health and safety regulations.
Quote from: Ulick on May 05, 2010, 04:55:40 PM
Quote from: delboy on May 05, 2010, 04:14:55 PM
Any word on your predictions? Be sure and post that other link when you get a chance :)
Ah go on then, I'm not normally a betting man but as it's for charity, I'll give it a go. What way do you want to do it? Predict each constituency winner, the margins in each constituency, or a selection of constituencies?
Let me know what time suits you to post a list of predictions up (we should do it at the same time).
Sorry Delboy, had to work late there. Here's my predictions:
East Antrim: Wilson (the only DUP shoe-in)
East Belfast: Robinson (losing about 3k votes to Ringland and Long)
East Derry: Campbell (even though we'd all love to see Grumpy Gregory taken out by the prodiban insurgency of Willie Ross - yes I thought he was dead as well - maybe he is)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Gildernew (going with the gut on this one and a sense that the people of FST will do the just thing)
Lagan Valley: Donaldson (even though the gay porno stories have got out, such things shouldn't matter in a constituency that returned bachelor boy Jim Molyneux for so many years)
Foyle: Durkan (the bourgeois Catholics should see him safely into his retirement package, but McCann will be the difference as Anderson should get within a few thousand)
Mid Ulster: McGuinness (the most respected politician in the north will be rewarded for his leadership - could even increase his lead to 50% of the vote)
Newry and Armagh: Murphy (probably increasing his majority close to 10k)
North Belfast: Deputy Dodds to hold for the last time (Old hawk eyes Kelly coming within a few hundred)
North Down: Hermon (with Parsley getting spanked for his trouble)
West Belfast: Adams (a shoe-in though he'll do well to maintain his 70% share of the vote)
West Tyrone: Doherty (a true gentleman, the old soldier has organised too many elections to let this slip even without Deeny standing)
South Belfast: McDonnell (Spratt will run him close though but he should still get about half of the Maskey vote to see him over the line)
North Antrim: Paisley (17k majority to too much to fcuk up even for Ian Og)
South Antrim: Reg Empey (SDLP tactical voters getting him over the line)
South Down: Ritche (served McGrady well but his share will probably slip from 44% to about 32% under her even with all of the UUP tactical votes. John McCallister to get embarrassed)
Strangford: Shannon ('Swish Family Robinson' and Fred Frazer backlash will be felt here but they locals should see through Nesbitt)
Upper Bann: Simpson to hold (with The Chef about 1.5k behind as the locals still don't realise it's winnable - they will next time)
So I have: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UUUCNF', 1 Ind
Obviously I still hold out hope for Kelly & O'Dowd who could cause a major upset if a perfect storm of conditions go their way.
My gut feeling tells me Ulick, O'Dowd is going to take Upper Bann. The voters believe it's possible from what I hear and he'll be getting the X next to his name.
Quote from: ziggysego on May 06, 2010, 12:31:05 AM
My gut feeling tells me Ulick, O'Dowd is going to take Upper Bann. The voters believe it's possible from what I hear and he'll be getting the X next to his name.
Well if it looks likely Ziggy, you'll hear it here first ;)
Hard to predict most of the seats, but if Michelle can hold and O'Dowd sneaks upper bann, it could be some night for the shinners.
Really hope the tory's vote collapses tomorrow, that p***k Cameron will mix the shit up over here.
Quote from: Ulick on May 06, 2010, 12:20:45 AM
Sorry Delboy, had to work late there. Here's my predictions:
East Antrim: Wilson (the only DUP shoe-in)
East Belfast: Robinson (losing about 3k votes to Ringland and Long)
East Derry: Campbell (even though we'd all love to see Grumpy Gregory taken out by the prodiban insurgency of Willie Ross - yes I thought he was dead as well - maybe he is)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Gildernew (going with the gut on this one and a sense that the people of FST will do the just thing)
Lagan Valley: Donaldson (even though the gay porno stories have got out, such things shouldn't matter in a constituency that returned bachelor boy Jim Molyneux for so many years)
Foyle: Durkan (the bourgeois Catholics should see him safely into his retirement package, but McCann will be the difference as Anderson should get within a few thousand)
Mid Ulster: McGuinness (the most respected politician in the north will be rewarded for his leadership - could even increase his lead to 50% of the vote)
Newry and Armagh: Murphy (probably increasing his majority close to 10k)
North Belfast: Deputy Dodds to hold for the last time (Old hawk eyes Kelly coming within a few hundred)
North Down: Hermon (with Parsley getting spanked for his trouble)
West Belfast: Adams (a shoe-in though he'll do well to maintain his 70% share of the vote)
West Tyrone: Doherty (a true gentleman, the old soldier has organised too many elections to let this slip even without Deeny standing)
South Belfast: McDonnell (Spratt will run him close though but he should still get about half of the Maskey vote to see him over the line)
North Antrim: Paisley (17k majority to too much to fcuk up even for Ian Og)
South Antrim: Reg Empey (SDLP tactical voters getting him over the line)
South Down: Ritche (served McGrady well but his share will probably slip from 44% to about 32% under her even with all of the UUP tactical votes. John McCallister to get embarrassed)
Strangford: Shannon ('Swish Family Robinson' and Fred Frazer backlash will be felt here but they locals should see through Nesbitt)
Upper Bann: Simpson to hold (with The Chef about 1.5k behind as the locals still don't realise it's winnable - they will next time)
So I have: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UUUCNF', 1 Ind
Obviously I still hold out hope for Kelly & O'Dowd who could cause a major upset if a perfect storm of conditions go their way.
Right here is mine, actually not terribly different at first glance, although our interpretations of how close votes will be should differ.
East Antrim:
DUP win, easy for Sammy.
East Belfast:
DUP easy win despite reason scandals.
Londonderry East: Comfortable
DUP win for Gregory
Fermanagh & S Tyrone:
Connor win, not sure about this but i think the number of SDLP votes needed to shift to SF will be too many this time round, i expect a core SDLP vote will not vote SF. I also expect the turn out of the unionist bloc to be v. high since they have a chance of a win, hard to see how SF can mobilise the vote any more than they already do.
Lagan Valley:
DUP win for Donaldson.
Foyle:
SDLP win with the most able SDLP candidate Durkan returned.
Mid Ulster: Easy
SF win for the ex chuckle brother Marty.
Newry and Armagh:
SF win
North Belfast: The most able member of the
DUP ranks returned to parliament, the gap will remain in the thousands (not hundreds is my prediction).
North Down: Easy win for lady
Hermon who is popular with the bangor people.
West Belfast: Another thumping win for
SF and Gerry, despite his own scandals.
West Tyrone:
SF win.
South Belfast:
SDLP win, can't see spratt running him that close with a split in the unionist vote.
North Antrim: Paisley win for
DUP, but TUV will put the wind up them and will eat into the large majority left to him by his dad.
South Antrim: Unsure of this but im going with a Reg Empty head win, the TUV may just split the traditional DUP vote to let the
UCUNF UCUNF get a much needed MP, if they don't it could be bad news for republicans/nationalists as it could spell the end of the party and we could well see the the emergence of a unified unionist party.
South Down: Ritche win for
SDLP against the terrible ruane, the SF tacticians would do well to remove here at the earliest opportunity.
Strangford: Despite virus doing her best ruin it for her own party,
DUP should hold off nesbitt comfortably.
Upper Bann:
DUP to hold despite the rumblings and rumours on here about an upset.
I have: 8 DUP, 4 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UCUNF', 2 Ind (Hermon and Connor).
I also dont think that SF will hold onto Fermanagh /south tyrone this time...
Well my (useless) vote has been cast, and despite SF being the only party with a representative at the polling station, I can't see them getting too many at that particular location.
Quote from: Rois on May 06, 2010, 11:09:27 AM
Well my (useless) vote has been cast, and despite SF being the only party with a representative at the polling station, I can't see them getting too many at that particular location.
Rois, which polling station do you have?
Little Presbyterian Hall just between Fortwilliam Park and the Fortwilliam shops.
Round the corner from Alban's house and in the middle of Nursing Home Central.
Quote from: Rois on May 06, 2010, 01:48:57 PM
Little Presbyterian Hall just between Fortwilliam Park and the Fortwilliam shops.
Round the corner from Alban's house and in the middle of Nursing Home Central.
Aye there's a few "departure" lounges round there alright!
Quote from: ziggysego on May 06, 2010, 12:31:05 AM
My gut feeling tells me Ulick, O'Dowd is going to take Upper Bann. The voters believe it's possible from what I hear and he'll be getting the X next to his name.
Not going to happen for Big John, Ziggy. Boxes from nationalist areas in Upper Bann are averaging 50%. Local SF had calculated the needed 60% to get him in.
"East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals."
Quote from myself ::), shows you what i know, that said im c**k a hoop ;D ;D im neither dup or uup(or whatever bollocks they call themselves), alliance from the day and hour (sorry to disappoint anybody that thought i was dyed in the wool unionist), never thought i'd see a result like that ;D
Quote from: delboy on May 07, 2010, 01:54:13 AM
"East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals."
Quote from myself ::), shows you what i know, that said im c**k a hoop ;D ;D im neither dup or uup(or whatever bollocks they call themselves), alliance from the day and hour (sorry to disappoint anybody that thought i was dyed in the wool unionist), never thought i'd see a result like that ;D
Fairplay Delboy you got me bang to rights. Hope you're not going to make me give the £20 to the OWC Away Trip Volcanic Ash Fund or something ;)
Oh right, sorry, I thought I said that! Heheh... Looks like we are both numpties...
Quote from: Ulick on May 07, 2010, 02:06:49 AM
Oh right, sorry, I thought I said that! Heheh... Looks like we are both numpties...
:D
Reg empty head hasn't managed in in south antrim either, looks like its coming down to either gildernew or connor, wouldn't dream of making it the kneebreakers fund or similar for the default, in light of us being crap, if it comes down to it, a charity of your choice :)
Quote from: delboy on May 07, 2010, 02:29:24 AM
Reg empty head hasn't managed in in south antrim either, looks like its coming down to either gildernew or connor, wouldn't dream of making it the kneebreakers fund or similar for the default, in light of us being crap, if it comes down to it, a charity of your choice :)
No, no. I'm a man of my word. Charity of your choice. Tis worth it for the Swish Family getting it stuffed up them.
MG ahead by 2 votes :o in F&ST, another recount under way.
I see the rumoured win in upper bann did not materalise (wasn't even close), and also that dodds majority was not reduced to the hundreds, although to be fair to SF they did make decent inroads.
The two target sdlp seats for SF was a flop also, a swing of 0.1 and 0.2 % from SDLP to SF in south down and foyle, they'll be a long time taking those seats at that rate.
What affect did the leader's debate have when Peter seemed be chummy with Gerry? Were the Alliance party not invited?
Despite there being more ballot papers counted than was actually issued ??? F&ST have returned MG, well that was as close as you could ask for, pick your charity ulick :)
QuoteReg empty head hasn't managed in in south antrim
Reg will always be an e
MPey
Quote from: delboy on May 06, 2010, 10:39:11 AM
Quote from: Ulick on May 06, 2010, 12:20:45 AM
Sorry Delboy, had to work late there. Here's my predictions:
East Antrim: Wilson (the only DUP shoe-in)
East Belfast: Robinson (losing about 3k votes to Ringland and Long)
East Derry: Campbell (even though we'd all love to see Grumpy Gregory taken out by the prodiban insurgency of Willie Ross - yes I thought he was dead as well - maybe he is)
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Gildernew (going with the gut on this one and a sense that the people of FST will do the just thing)
Lagan Valley: Donaldson (even though the gay porno stories have got out, such things shouldn't matter in a constituency that returned bachelor boy Jim Molyneux for so many years)
Foyle: Durkan (the bourgeois Catholics should see him safely into his retirement package, but McCann will be the difference as Anderson should get within a few thousand)
Mid Ulster: McGuinness (the most respected politician in the north will be rewarded for his leadership - could even increase his lead to 50% of the vote)
Newry and Armagh: Murphy (probably increasing his majority close to 10k)
North Belfast: Deputy Dodds to hold for the last time (Old hawk eyes Kelly coming within a few hundred)
North Down: Hermon (with Parsley getting spanked for his trouble)
West Belfast: Adams (a shoe-in though he'll do well to maintain his 70% share of the vote)
West Tyrone: Doherty (a true gentleman, the old soldier has organised too many elections to let this slip even without Deeny standing)
South Belfast: McDonnell (Spratt will run him close though but he should still get about half of the Maskey vote to see him over the line)
North Antrim: Paisley (17k majority to too much to fcuk up even for Ian Og)
South Antrim: Reg Empey (SDLP tactical voters getting him over the line)
South Down: Ritche (served McGrady well but his share will probably slip from 44% to about 32% under her even with all of the UUP tactical votes. John McCallister to get embarrassed)
Strangford: Shannon ('Swish Family Robinson' and Fred Frazer backlash will be felt here but they locals should see through Nesbitt)
Upper Bann: Simpson to hold (with The Chef about 1.5k behind as the locals still don't realise it's winnable - they will next time)
So I have: 8 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UUUCNF', 1 Ind
Obviously I still hold out hope for Kelly & O'Dowd who could cause a major upset if a perfect storm of conditions go their way.
Right here is mine, actually not terribly different at first glance, although our interpretations of how close votes will be should differ.
East Antrim: DUP win, easy for Sammy.
East Belfast: DUP easy win despite reason scandals.
Londonderry East: Comfortable DUP win for Gregory
Fermanagh & S Tyrone: Connor win, not sure about this but i think the number of SDLP votes needed to shift to SF will be too many this time round, i expect a core SDLP vote will not vote SF. I also expect the turn out of the unionist bloc to be v. high since they have a chance of a win, hard to see how SF can mobilise the vote any more than they already do.
Lagan Valley: DUP win for Donaldson.
Foyle: SDLP win with the most able SDLP candidate Durkan returned.
Mid Ulster: Easy SF win for the ex chuckle brother Marty.
Newry and Armagh: SF win
North Belfast: The most able member of the DUP ranks returned to parliament, the gap will remain in the thousands (not hundreds is my prediction).
North Down: Easy win for lady Hermon who is popular with the bangor people.
West Belfast: Another thumping win for SF and Gerry, despite his own scandals.
West Tyrone: SF win.
South Belfast: SDLP win, can't see spratt running him that close with a split in the unionist vote.
North Antrim: Paisley win for DUP, but TUV will put the wind up them and will eat into the large majority left to him by his dad.
South Antrim: Unsure of this but im going with a Reg Empty head win, the TUV may just split the traditional DUP vote to let the UCUNF UCUNF get a much needed MP, if they don't it could be bad news for republicans/nationalists as it could spell the end of the party and we could well see the the emergence of a unified unionist party.
South Down: Ritche win for SDLP against the terrible ruane, the SF tacticians would do well to remove here at the earliest opportunity.
Strangford: Despite virus doing her best ruin it for her own party, DUP should hold off nesbitt comfortably.
Upper Bann: DUP to hold despite the rumblings and rumours on here about an upset.
I have: 8 DUP, 4 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 'UCUNF', 2 Ind (Hermon and Connor).
Looks like a draw delboy. Shall we call it quits or will we both donate £20 anyway, in lieu of a handshake?
I think you won ulick, you called the F&ST seat, i'd like to donate £20 to chest heart and stroke if thats ok.