A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[five points]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

[Eamonnca1]

When are them Nordies going to get off their lazy arses and start to earn a collective living for themselves?

Little problem with that. SF have adopted a "let's screw as much money out of the Brits as we can" policy. The DUP have adopted pretty much the same policy.

If anyone is making concrete proposals to make the north more competitive and less dependent on processing public sector paperwork, they're having a hard time making their voices heard.

[armaghniac]

GDP is not a proper measure, but the number at work in 26 counties increased by over 3% last year and that is a real measure.

As for the poll, a person can reasonably be a nationalist while not voting for an immediate united Ireland because the groundwork has not been done. Being a nationalist means that you expect the work to be done. SF have not even been able to produce a credible financial model for the 26 counties in their manifesto, never mind a UI. Their money tree economics is a serious obstacle to Irish unity.

Have SF discussed finance with regards to a UI?
I saw an interview with Mary-Lou and she seemed to be saying that preparations and discussions were needed so that the picture of what a UI could look like can be created. Is this not laying the groundwork?

Hard graft is needed with actual detail, these discussions are vapourware.

Personally, I think we need to see what Brexit is going to bring to NI. If it turns out to be as bad as many predict, I could see many small "u" unionists voting for a UI to get back into Europe providing their British identity is retained. Likewise, for many Nationalists who might not vote for it now, I think a painful Brexit for us would swing that vote.
There is a sizeable proportion of the electorate here who would vote in economic terms and not on political terms with respect to a border poll.

Brexit may well have a material effect, polls have shown a large swing in NI based on the type of Brexit.

Little problem with that. SF have adopted a "let's screw as much money out of the Brits as we can" policy. The DUP have adopted pretty much the same policy.

Exactly. But "let's screw as much money out of the Brits as we can" increases the NI deficit and makes any talk of a UI unrealistic.

[Eamonnca1]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

GDP growth has been positive since 2013. What numbers are you looking at?

[five points]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

GDP growth has been positive since 2013. What numbers are you looking at?

Even funnier.

[weareros]

Those Lucid and Lord Ashcroft polls were showing a small minority for Unity when British gov was in disarray over Brexit, and Irish gov were schooling them with backing of EU. Now things have settled in UK with Boris securing a comfortable majority, while the Irish political scene is now very fragmented, which doesn't look like changing anytime soon. It would be best to see an updated Lucid or LA poll, as this one still seems off.

[armaghniac]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

GDP growth has been positive since 2013. What numbers are you looking at?

Even funnier.

Leaving aside GDP, employment and unemployment stats show that things have been good of late as do earnings stats

[GJL]

Taken from a sample of 2000 people. FFS lads.

So? 1000 would be a decent size for a poll. A poll is not a census, it's a sample. That's what polling is.

Indeed. And we have seen in the UK the value of polls and how accurate they can be. A waste of time when dealing with such small numbers.

If you're referring to the recent UK general election, the outcome was entirely consistent with the polls. I'm not sure where you're coming from.

I wasn't. I was referring to the previous general election and also the Brexit vote where polls in both proved to be a waste of time.

[five points]

Leaving aside GDP, employment and unemployment stats show that things have been good of late as do earnings stats

In relative terms, yes. And I should of course have said "much of the past 12" rather than "most of the last 10".

[Eamonnca1]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

GDP growth has been positive since 2013. What numbers are you looking at?

Even funnier.

You don't have any numbers, do you?

[five points]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

GDP growth has been positive since 2013. What numbers are you looking at?

Even funnier.

You don't have any numbers, do you?

No but you told me a while back that you'd ignore me. What goes around etc.

[Eamonnca1]

No but you told me a while back that you'd ignore me. What goes around etc.

Did I? Shoot! I must have forgotten to add you to my ignore list. I'll leave you on probation for a while, how does that sound?

[five points]

No but you told me a while back that you'd ignore me. What goes around etc.

Did I? Shoot! I must have forgotten to add you to my ignore list. I'll leave you on probation for a while, how does that sound?

No. Stick to your word.

[Main Street]

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

Very funny.

GDP growth has been positive since 2013. What numbers are you looking at?

Even funnier.

Leaving aside GDP, employment and unemployment stats show that things have been good of late as do earnings stats

Those CSO average earning stats tell us nothing about whether things are good or not for the 400,000 earning < Eur10k p/a   or the 400,000 earning between eur10k-20k p/a

Question: What age are you?
Answer: the average age in my town is 35.     

[armaghniac]

Those CSO average earning stats tell us nothing about whether things are good or not for the 400,000 earning < Eur10k p/a   or the 400,000 earning between eur10k-20k p/a

Question: What age are you?
Answer: the average age in my town is 35.   

The discussion was about whether there was a recession. The earnings data shows that people generally are doing OK which says nothing about particular individuals, nor did I claim that it did.